电力市场安全与经济风险管理的理论与应用研究
|
摘要
我国已经实现厂网分开,正在通过逐步引入竞争机制来建立和完善电力市场。那么,选取一个什么样的电力市场模式,采取什么样的监管政策,配套什么样的运行机制,才能有效提高电力工业的生产效率,优化配置电力资源,同时有效防范和控制安全与经济风险。这是一个需要研究的课题。
论文分析了电力工业的特点以及电力市场的运营机制,运用微观经济学的市场供需理论,通过研究电力市场的有效性和长期均衡问题,分析了电力市场的经济风险问题,并论述了市场失灵和价格管制的关系。同时从分析电力系统安全、可靠性的因素入手,阐述了电力系统可靠性与备用容量的关系,建立了相应的可靠性模型,并进行了实证分析,为防范市场经济风险提供理论基础。
论文系统梳理了适合我国国情的防范电力市场安全与经济风险的协调机制,包括市场监管、电力期货交易、容量市场、需求侧管理以及限电机制等,并结合我国电力市场建设实际,分析了上述机制的特点,研究给出了一套以现货市场为核心的综合协调安全与经济风险的框架体系,对于我国电力市场风险体系的建立具有一定的参考价值。
针对电力市场的核心之一——电价问题,论文重点分析了两种能够确定最优可靠性的定价方法:负荷损失定价法与容量需求定价法。通过构建模型和实证分析发现他们都可以通过合理有效的价格信号引导最优发电装机容量的投资,然而由于这两种方法的立足点、运作机制和支付方式等方面存在本质的区别,因此在电力市场环境下两者所能实现的效果也不一致。通过在投资激励、风险、市场力、期货等几个方面的对比分析,得出在在我国比较适合容量需求定价法。电价也是监管的核心,根据我国厂网分开后的市场建设,研究了价格上限的激励性监管模式,重点研究了具有自然垄断属性的输配电价的监管,并构建了输配电价的监管模型。
根据我国区域电力市场的建设情况,研究了互连电力市场中的安全与经济风险问题。通过研究发现,当两个互连电力市场采用不同定价方法时,采用负荷损失定价法的市场可以从采用容量需求定价法的市场获取较多的备用容量,从而增加其可靠性。因此,本文建议我国采用统一的定价方法来规避这种由不同定价方法所带来的风险。通过构建模型计算了当两个互连电力市场采用相同定价方法时的出清价格以及与之相应的合同容量。然后进一步通过模型研究以社会效益最大化为目标时的出清价格,为监管者对互连电力市场的价格监管提供了决策参考。最后,对研究成果进行了总结,并给出了解决我国电力市场安全和经济风险的建议。
Our country has already realized the separation between the generator and the grid, and is gradually introducing the competitive system to establish a healthy power market. As to the situation of our country, it is an urgent problem to select a proper power market mechanism and the operation pattern, and to adopt a suitable supervising and managing pattern and the corresponding policy laws and regulations, in order to effectively enhance the efficiency of power industry, to optimize the disposition of power resources, and to effectively guard and control the security risk and the economical risk during the network operation.
The paper analyzes the characteristics of the power industry and the operation mechanism of the power market. According to the the market supply and demand theory in micro-economics and the analysis of the effectiveness and long-term balance of the power market, the paper analyses the economic risks of the power market,and discusses the connection between the market failures and price control. Acorrding to the analysis of the security and reliability factors of the power system, the paper discusses the connection between the reliability of the power system and the reserve capacity, and establishes the corresponding model of reliability, and then takes out the empirical analyses, which are the academic basis of how to prevent economic risks of the market.
Several kinds of coordination mechanism between the security risk and the economical risk under the power market condition are introduced: the supervising mechanism of the market, the power futures market, the capacity market, the demand-side management and the restrictive mechanism of the electricity price.Taked the build of our country’s power market into consideration, the characteristics of the above mechanisms are discussed, and the framework of how to coordinate secure and economic risks,which is based on the spot market,is given.And it contributes to the build of the risk mechanism of the power market in China.
In accordance with the problem of pricing, two methods to realize the optimal reliability are discussed: Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing, and OpRes pricing.After the moudel builded and the empirical analyses, the paper points that they both result in an optimal average investment in generating capacity through the optimal price signals, but because of the difference in the foothold, operation mechanism and methods of payment, the effect is different. According to the comparative analysis of the encouragememnt in investment, risks, market force and future trades, the OpRes pricing is compatible in China.Because of price one of the cores to monitor and the market builded after the the separation between the generator and the grid, the moudel of incentive regulatory of the price cap is discussed, foused on the regulatory of the natural monopoly electricity transmission price,and the regulatory model of the transmission and distribution pricing is established.
According to China's regional power market building, the secure and economic risks in the interconnectional power markets are discussed.the paper points that when two different methods are taken, the market taking the method of the Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing will get more reserve capacity than the market taking the methold of the OpRes pricing.So it is proposed that it take the unified pricing method to prevent the risks caused by the different pricing method.And the model is established,and MCP and contract compacity is given when the interconnectional power markets take the unified pricing method.and then through the thorough study of the model to maximize social benefits,the relative MCP is given ,which provides a decision-making reference to the regulators in the price regulatory in the interconnectional power markets.Finally, the research results are summarized and the proposals to how to solve security and economic risks in our country’s power markrt are given.
论文分析了电力工业的特点以及电力市场的运营机制,运用微观经济学的市场供需理论,通过研究电力市场的有效性和长期均衡问题,分析了电力市场的经济风险问题,并论述了市场失灵和价格管制的关系。同时从分析电力系统安全、可靠性的因素入手,阐述了电力系统可靠性与备用容量的关系,建立了相应的可靠性模型,并进行了实证分析,为防范市场经济风险提供理论基础。
论文系统梳理了适合我国国情的防范电力市场安全与经济风险的协调机制,包括市场监管、电力期货交易、容量市场、需求侧管理以及限电机制等,并结合我国电力市场建设实际,分析了上述机制的特点,研究给出了一套以现货市场为核心的综合协调安全与经济风险的框架体系,对于我国电力市场风险体系的建立具有一定的参考价值。
针对电力市场的核心之一——电价问题,论文重点分析了两种能够确定最优可靠性的定价方法:负荷损失定价法与容量需求定价法。通过构建模型和实证分析发现他们都可以通过合理有效的价格信号引导最优发电装机容量的投资,然而由于这两种方法的立足点、运作机制和支付方式等方面存在本质的区别,因此在电力市场环境下两者所能实现的效果也不一致。通过在投资激励、风险、市场力、期货等几个方面的对比分析,得出在在我国比较适合容量需求定价法。电价也是监管的核心,根据我国厂网分开后的市场建设,研究了价格上限的激励性监管模式,重点研究了具有自然垄断属性的输配电价的监管,并构建了输配电价的监管模型。
根据我国区域电力市场的建设情况,研究了互连电力市场中的安全与经济风险问题。通过研究发现,当两个互连电力市场采用不同定价方法时,采用负荷损失定价法的市场可以从采用容量需求定价法的市场获取较多的备用容量,从而增加其可靠性。因此,本文建议我国采用统一的定价方法来规避这种由不同定价方法所带来的风险。通过构建模型计算了当两个互连电力市场采用相同定价方法时的出清价格以及与之相应的合同容量。然后进一步通过模型研究以社会效益最大化为目标时的出清价格,为监管者对互连电力市场的价格监管提供了决策参考。最后,对研究成果进行了总结,并给出了解决我国电力市场安全和经济风险的建议。
Our country has already realized the separation between the generator and the grid, and is gradually introducing the competitive system to establish a healthy power market. As to the situation of our country, it is an urgent problem to select a proper power market mechanism and the operation pattern, and to adopt a suitable supervising and managing pattern and the corresponding policy laws and regulations, in order to effectively enhance the efficiency of power industry, to optimize the disposition of power resources, and to effectively guard and control the security risk and the economical risk during the network operation.
The paper analyzes the characteristics of the power industry and the operation mechanism of the power market. According to the the market supply and demand theory in micro-economics and the analysis of the effectiveness and long-term balance of the power market, the paper analyses the economic risks of the power market,and discusses the connection between the market failures and price control. Acorrding to the analysis of the security and reliability factors of the power system, the paper discusses the connection between the reliability of the power system and the reserve capacity, and establishes the corresponding model of reliability, and then takes out the empirical analyses, which are the academic basis of how to prevent economic risks of the market.
Several kinds of coordination mechanism between the security risk and the economical risk under the power market condition are introduced: the supervising mechanism of the market, the power futures market, the capacity market, the demand-side management and the restrictive mechanism of the electricity price.Taked the build of our country’s power market into consideration, the characteristics of the above mechanisms are discussed, and the framework of how to coordinate secure and economic risks,which is based on the spot market,is given.And it contributes to the build of the risk mechanism of the power market in China.
In accordance with the problem of pricing, two methods to realize the optimal reliability are discussed: Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing, and OpRes pricing.After the moudel builded and the empirical analyses, the paper points that they both result in an optimal average investment in generating capacity through the optimal price signals, but because of the difference in the foothold, operation mechanism and methods of payment, the effect is different. According to the comparative analysis of the encouragememnt in investment, risks, market force and future trades, the OpRes pricing is compatible in China.Because of price one of the cores to monitor and the market builded after the the separation between the generator and the grid, the moudel of incentive regulatory of the price cap is discussed, foused on the regulatory of the natural monopoly electricity transmission price,and the regulatory model of the transmission and distribution pricing is established.
According to China's regional power market building, the secure and economic risks in the interconnectional power markets are discussed.the paper points that when two different methods are taken, the market taking the method of the Value-of-Lost-Load Pricing will get more reserve capacity than the market taking the methold of the OpRes pricing.So it is proposed that it take the unified pricing method to prevent the risks caused by the different pricing method.And the model is established,and MCP and contract compacity is given when the interconnectional power markets take the unified pricing method.and then through the thorough study of the model to maximize social benefits,the relative MCP is given ,which provides a decision-making reference to the regulators in the price regulatory in the interconnectional power markets.Finally, the research results are summarized and the proposals to how to solve security and economic risks in our country’s power markrt are given.
引文
[1]曾鸣.电力市场交易与电价理论及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
[2]曾鸣.电力市场中的辅助服务理论及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
[3]曾鸣.综合资源规划在我国应用的可能方式研究[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[4]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理的激励机制理论及应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2002
[5]曾鸣.综合资源规划及其激励理论与应用[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2000.
[6]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2000.
[7]胡兆光.中国实施需求侧管理政策研究[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2000.
[8]李付林,郭创新.从电力系统运行角度看需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2004(7):14-16.
[9]赵磊.北京市实施DSM机制的政策建议[J].电力需求侧管理,2003(10): 13-14.
[10]宋宏坤.美国加州如何通过DSM解决能源危机[J].环球揽翠,2004(4): 62-64.
[11]夏雪莹.电力需求侧管理世界一瞥[J].电力需求侧管理,2002(6):60-60.
[12]胡兆光.需求侧管理在中国的应用与实施[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(1):41-44.
[13] Schainker,R.Douglas. T.Electric utility responses to grid security issues [J].Power and Energy Magazine,IEEE.Volume 4,Issue 2,March-April 2006:30-37.
[14] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role [J].Electric Energy T&D Magazine,November-December 2003:16-19.
[15] Newell,Richard G.Balancing Policies for Energy Efficiency and Climate Change [J]. Resources,Summer 2000 (140):14–17.
[16] Timothy J. Brennan. Demand-Side Management Programs Under Retail [J] Electricity Competition :99-02.
[17]谭伦农,张保会.市场环境下的负荷备用容量[J].电力自动化设备.2003(6):10-13.
[18]文福拴,吴复立.电力市场环境下的发电容量充裕性问题[J].电力系统自动化2002(19):16-22.
[19]徐箭,陈允平.电力市场环境下基于风险的电力系统安全评估[J].高电压技术2006(3):96-99.
[20]张保会,王立永,谭伦农.计及风险的市场环境下电力系统安全可靠性研究[J]电网技术2005(3):44-49.
[21]谭伦农.市场环境下电力系统安全性与经济性问题的探讨[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版) 2003(4):334-338.
[22]曾鸣,童明光,张艳馥.我国未来电力市场中的经济风险——市场力风险及其防范问题[J].电网技术2004(9):44-50.
[23]夏清.兼顾经济协调发展和电网安全的区域共同市场[J].电力系统自动化2004(19):1-5.
[24] Rui Bo,Yang Li,Fubin Liu,Guoqing Tang. A novel coordination scheme of transaction scheduling in multi-level power market[C].Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2003 IEEE PESVolume 1,7-12 Sept. 2003:85-90 .
[25]傅书逖,王海宁.关于缺电问题的研究与对策[J].电网技术,2005(3):5-8
[26]童明光,刘万福.电力市场环境下系统安全的定价研究[J].电网技术,2004(6):31-37.
[27]赵儆,康重庆,夏清.电力市场中基于供给需求原理的安全电价体系[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(10):1333-1336.
[28]王剑辉,谭忠富.发电商报价过程中的风险分析[J].华东电力,2004(3):2-5.
[29]韩慧芳.电价改革如何防范和化解市场风险——对北美大面积停电事故的若干思考[J] ,价格理论与实践:6-8.
[30]尚金成,周劼英，程满.兼顾安全与经济的电力系统优化调度协调理论[J].电力系统自动化,2007(6):38-42.
[31]方娜,廖家平.电力市场竞价模型中的Nash均衡分析[J].东北电力技术,2006(7):9-12.
[32]刘喜梅.不同的电力交易模式对电力市场均衡的影响分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2006(3):43-48.
[33]王承民,袁志强.电力市场的均衡与失灵问题探讨[J].电网技术,2004(13):66-71
[34]王承民,刘剑平.实时电力市场均衡理论研究[J].华东电力,2003(2):4-7
[35]王晛,张少华.考虑跨时段负荷响应的电力市场多时段均衡分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2006(20):33-38.
[36]马歆.考虑合约交易的电力寡头垄断市场均衡分析[J].长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版) 2006(1):24-26.
[37]臧宝锋,胡汉辉,王建兴.电力市场条件下的发电投资均衡[J].电力系统自动化2006(2):41-44.
[38]张晓东,高波.基于供给函数均衡模型的区域电力现货市场模拟分析[J].电网技术2005(13):80-84.
[39]于良春,杜琼.中国电力均衡的市场机制与政府监管[J].财经问题研究2005(7):32-35.
[40]王承民,蒋传文,张锐.基于均衡原则的实时电力市场模拟与等报价方法[J].电网技术2005(9):63-69.
[41]王晛,张少华.应用非线性互补方法的电力市场均衡分析[J].控制与决策2004(8):893-897.
[42]袁智强,邓超平,蒋传文.电力寡头垄断市场的均衡分析[J].继电器2004(5):7-10.
[43]袁智强,侯志坚.电力市场古诺模型的均衡分析[J]电网技术2003(12):6-9.
[44]陈志军.电力市场均衡点的探讨[J].电力系统及其自动化学报2002(5):12-16.
[45]王长军,张少华,李渝曾.考虑差价合同交易的电力市场均衡模型[J].上海大学学报(自然科学版) 2001(4):349-353.
[46]马歆,蒋传文.电力金融合约市场及其风险控制研究[J].华东电力,2002(9):8-11.
[47]张显,王锡凡.电力金融市场综述[J].电力系统自动化2005(20):1-10.
[48]袁兆强,许强.保险理论在电力容量市场中的应用初探[J].技术与市场2007(3):87-89.
[49]张少华,方勇.电力市场中的激励性机制设计[J].电网技术2003(1):52-56.
[50] Yokoyama,A. Price volatility and service interruption risk-hedging by transmission contract [J]. Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 21,Issue 1,Feb. 2006:211–223.
[51]段登伟,刘继勇.基于激励原理的可中断负荷[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版) 2005(3):143-148.
[52]方勇,李俞曾.电力市场中激励性可中断负荷合同的建模与实施研究[J].电网技术.2004(17):41-46.
[53]李生虎,丁明.电力市场中基于电价弹性的电力系统运行可靠性的协调控制[J].中国电机工程学报2005(24):34-40.
[54] Bhavaraju,Murty P.Hobbs, Benjamin Hu,Ming-Che.A Dynamic Analysis of a Demand Curve-Based Capacity Market Proposal:The PJM Reliability Pricing Model[J].Power Engineering Society General Meeting,June 2007. IEEE:1-3.
[55] Benjamin F. Hobbs,Javier I?ón and Steven E. Stoft. Installed Capacity Requirements and Price Caps:Oil on the Water, or Fuel on the Fire? [J].The Electricity Journal,Volume 14,Issue 6,July 2001,Pages 23-34.
[56] Kehler,J.H. Considerations for load as a virtual generator for grid security [J].Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2003, IEEE, Volume 4,July 2003 Page(s):13-17.
[57]刘宝华,王冬容,曾鸣.从需求侧管理到需求侧响应[J],电力需求侧管理2005(5):10-13.
[58]王冬容,刘宝华,杨赛.电力需求响应的经济效益分析[J].电力需求侧管理2007(1).
[59]王冬容,刘宝华等.单边电力市场静态稳定环节和带需求侧响应的组合市场模式[J].电力需求侧管理2006(1):14-16.
[60] Timothy J.Brennan,Demand-Side Management Programs Under Retail Electricity Competition ,99-02.
[61] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role,Electric Energy T&D Magazine,November-December 2003,16～19.
[62]傅勇.电力市场下基于可靠性的输电服务定价研究[J].电力系统及其自动化学报2002(6):40-43.
[63]赵俏姿,段献忠.批发竞争市场可中断负荷定价分析[J].华东电力2006(3):38-41.
[64]李扬,王蓓蓓,万秋兰.基于需求侧可靠性差别定价的电力市场交易新机制[J].电力系统自动化2007(4):18-23.
[65]王立永,张保会,王克球.适应电力市场运营环境的可靠性电价研究[J].西安交通大学学报,2006(8):969-973.
[66]吴政球,叶世顺,匡文凯.电力市场环境下的可靠性电价与可靠性交易[J].电网技术2006(4):74-77.
[67] Yu, R..Reliability prediction method for electronic systems:a comparative reliability assessment method[J]. High-Assurance Systems Engineering Workshop,Proceedings, IEEE. 21-22 Oct. 1996 Page(s):237–241.
[68] Youssef Hegazy and Jean-Michel Guldmann. Reliability pricing of electric power service: A probabilistic production cost modeling approach[J].Energy,Volume 21,Issue 2,February 1996:87-97 .
[69] Hobbs,B. F. Stoft,S. E. Bhavaraju,M. P. PJM Reliability Pricing Model - A Summary and Dynamic Analysis[J]. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on Publication Date: Feb. 2007 Volume:22 ,Issue: 1 On page(s): 3– 14.
[70] Elegbede,A.O.C.,Chengbin Chu,Adjallah,K.H.,Yalaoui,F. Reliability allocation through cost minimization. Reliability[J].IEEE Transactions on Volume 52, Issue 1, March 2003 Page(s):106– 111.
[71] The value of supply security:The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks(VOLL)Energy Economics,Volume 29,Issue 2, March 2007,Pages 277-295. Michiel de Nooij,Carl Koopmans and Carlijn Bijvoet.
[72] Electricity supply reliability : Estimating the value of lost load(VOLL)Energy Policy,Volume 25, Issue 1, January 1997,Pages 97-103. K. G. Willis and G. D. Garrod.
[73]何永秀,黄文杰,谭忠富.电力备用市场化运营需求研究[J].中国电机工程学报2004(3):46-51.
[74]何永秀黄文杰,谭忠富.基于投入-产出法的电力失负荷价值研究[J].电网技术2006(1):44-49.
[75]何永秀,王怡,黄文杰.电力需求价格弹性与系统最优备用的关系[J].电力需求侧管理2003(5):20-23.
[76]吴集光,刘俊勇.电力市场环境下最优备用容量的确定[J].电力系统自动化2005(15):10-14.
[77]陈其安,张宗益.Power Pool模式电力市场最优备用容量及定价[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版) 2004(10):160-163.
[78]曹娜,曾次玲.旋转备用辅助服务的需求与调度[J].继电器2004(21):13-17.
[79]王勇,钟志勇,文福栓.发电装机容量市场适当价格水平的确定[J].电力系统自动化2005(9):5-11.
[80]蒋纬纬,丁坚勇.电力市场中的备用需求和备用调度[J].浙江电力2003(2):1-5.
[81]葛炬,张粒子.备用服务A-S定价方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报2006(14):31-35.
[82] K. Afshar,M. Ehsan,M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad and N. Amjady. Cost-benefit analysis and MILP for optimal reserve capacity determination in power system.Applied Mathematics and Computation,In Press,Corrected Proof,Available online 13 July 2007.
[83]易亚文,石东源.电力市场备用容量的一种交易模式及其定价机制[J] .继电器2005(3):6-10.
[84]王乐,余志伟,文福拴.基于机会约束规划的最优旋转备用容量确定[J]电网技术2006(20):14-19.
[85]葛炬,张粒子.可中断负荷参与的备用市场帕累托优化模型[J].电力系统自动化2006(9):34-37.
[86]李晓刚,言茂松.我国运行备用辅助服务市场的模式与定价研究[J].电力系统自动化2000(9):12-18.
[87] X. S. Zhao,F. S. Wen,D. Q. Gan, M. X. Huang,C. W. Yu and C. Y. Chung Determination of AGC capacity requirement and dispatch considering performance penalties[J].Electric Power Systems Research,Volume 70,Issue 2,July 2004,Pages:93-98.
[88] Edward Vinea,Jan Hamrin,Nick Eyre,David Crossley,Michelle Maloney,Greg Watt ,Public policy analysis of energy efficiency and load management in changing electricity businesses.
[89] Jan Hamrin,Public Policy Implications of Mechanisms for Promoting Energy Efficiency and Load Management in Changing Electricity Businesses.
[90] David Nichols,Tellus Institute,Boston,Reducing Peak Demands Through Customer-Side Initiatives,September 6, 2000
[91] kenneth gillingham,richard newell,and karen palmer,The Effectiveness and Cost of Energy Efficiency Programs,2004.
[92] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role[J].Electric Energy T&DMagazine,November-December 2003,16-19.
[93] Midttun, Atle (1996) "The Norwegian,Swedish and Finnish Reforms:Competitive Public Capitalism and the Emergence of the Nordic Internal Market", in European Electricity Systems in Transition ed. Atle Midnun,Elsevier Science,London.
[94] How to resolve energy crisis by DSM in California.
[95] Brown,R.E.,Hanson,A.P.,Willis,H.L.,Luedtke, F.A., Born,M.F. Assessing the reliability of distribution systems. [J]. Computer Applications in Power,IEEE Volume 14,Issue 1,Jan. 2001 Page(s):44– 49.
[96] J.W. Transmission reliability under restructuring Pope[C] Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, 1999. IEEE Volume 1,18-22 July 1999 Page(s):162 - 166 vol.1.
[97] Taylor, T., Marshall, M., Neumann,E. Developing a reliability improvement strategy for utility distribution systems[C].Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2001 IEEE/PES Volume 1, 28 Oct.-2 Nov. 2001 Page(s):444 - 449 vol.1.
[98] Kariuki, K.K.,Allan, R.N. Evaluation of reliability worth and value of lost load. [J].Generation,Transmission and Distribution,IEEE Proceedings-Volume 143, Issue 2,March 1996 Page(s):171–180.
[99] Jianxue Wang,Xifan Wang,Yang Wu. Operating reserve model in the power market[J].Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 20,Issue 1,Feb. 2005 Page(s):223-229.
[100] Stoft,S. The demand for operating reserves: key to price spikes and investment[J].Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 18, Issue 2,May 2003 Page(s):470– 477.
[101] Zhong, J.,Wu, F.F. Operating reserve value at risk[C].Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2006. IEEE 18-22 June 2006 Page(s):6 pp.
[102] Guangbin Lian,Billinton,R. Operating reserve risk assessment in composite power systems[J]. Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 9,Issue 3,Aug. 1994 Page(s):1270-1276.
[103] Leite Da Silva,A.M.,Alvarez,G.P. Operating reserve capacity requirements and pricing in deregulated markets using probabilistic techniques[J].Generation, Transmission & Distribution, IET Volume 1,Issue 3,May 2007 Page(s):439-446.
[104] Leffler,L.G., Chambliss, R.J, Ringlee, R.J. Operating reserve and generation risk analysis for the PJM interconnection[J].Power Apparatus and Systems, IEEE Transactions on Volume 94, Issue 2, Part 1, Mar 1975 Page(s):396– 407.
[105] Chan,C.Y.,Ni,Y.X., Wu,F.F.A study of operating reserve procurance in power markets with application of insurance theory:contract-based vs pool-based approaches[C].Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting,2002 IEEE Volume 3,25-25 July 2002 Page(s):1397 - 1402 vol.3.
[106] Hobbs,B.F.,Inon,J.G.,Ming-Che Hu,Stoft, S.E. Capacity markets:review and a dynamic assessment of demand-curve approaches[C]. Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2005. IEEE 12-16 June 2005 Page(s):514 - 522 Vol. 1.
[107] Litvinov, E.,Jian Yang. Integrate operational practices with the New England locational capacity market designs[C]. Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2005. IEEE 12-16 June 2005 Page(s):961 - 963 Vol. 1.
[108] Falk,A.K. The Effects of Availability Upon Installed Reserve Requirements[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.Volume PAS-85,Issue 11,Nov. 1966 Page(s):1135-1144.
[2]曾鸣.电力市场中的辅助服务理论及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
[3]曾鸣.综合资源规划在我国应用的可能方式研究[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[4]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理的激励机制理论及应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2002
[5]曾鸣.综合资源规划及其激励理论与应用[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2000.
[6]曾鸣.电力需求侧管理[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2000.
[7]胡兆光.中国实施需求侧管理政策研究[M].北京:中国电力出版社.2000.
[8]李付林,郭创新.从电力系统运行角度看需求侧管理[J].电力需求侧管理,2004(7):14-16.
[9]赵磊.北京市实施DSM机制的政策建议[J].电力需求侧管理,2003(10): 13-14.
[10]宋宏坤.美国加州如何通过DSM解决能源危机[J].环球揽翠,2004(4): 62-64.
[11]夏雪莹.电力需求侧管理世界一瞥[J].电力需求侧管理,2002(6):60-60.
[12]胡兆光.需求侧管理在中国的应用与实施[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(1):41-44.
[13] Schainker,R.Douglas. T.Electric utility responses to grid security issues [J].Power and Energy Magazine,IEEE.Volume 4,Issue 2,March-April 2006:30-37.
[14] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role [J].Electric Energy T&D Magazine,November-December 2003:16-19.
[15] Newell,Richard G.Balancing Policies for Energy Efficiency and Climate Change [J]. Resources,Summer 2000 (140):14–17.
[16] Timothy J. Brennan. Demand-Side Management Programs Under Retail [J] Electricity Competition :99-02.
[17]谭伦农,张保会.市场环境下的负荷备用容量[J].电力自动化设备.2003(6):10-13.
[18]文福拴,吴复立.电力市场环境下的发电容量充裕性问题[J].电力系统自动化2002(19):16-22.
[19]徐箭,陈允平.电力市场环境下基于风险的电力系统安全评估[J].高电压技术2006(3):96-99.
[20]张保会,王立永,谭伦农.计及风险的市场环境下电力系统安全可靠性研究[J]电网技术2005(3):44-49.
[21]谭伦农.市场环境下电力系统安全性与经济性问题的探讨[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版) 2003(4):334-338.
[22]曾鸣,童明光,张艳馥.我国未来电力市场中的经济风险——市场力风险及其防范问题[J].电网技术2004(9):44-50.
[23]夏清.兼顾经济协调发展和电网安全的区域共同市场[J].电力系统自动化2004(19):1-5.
[24] Rui Bo,Yang Li,Fubin Liu,Guoqing Tang. A novel coordination scheme of transaction scheduling in multi-level power market[C].Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2003 IEEE PESVolume 1,7-12 Sept. 2003:85-90 .
[25]傅书逖,王海宁.关于缺电问题的研究与对策[J].电网技术,2005(3):5-8
[26]童明光,刘万福.电力市场环境下系统安全的定价研究[J].电网技术,2004(6):31-37.
[27]赵儆,康重庆,夏清.电力市场中基于供给需求原理的安全电价体系[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(10):1333-1336.
[28]王剑辉,谭忠富.发电商报价过程中的风险分析[J].华东电力,2004(3):2-5.
[29]韩慧芳.电价改革如何防范和化解市场风险——对北美大面积停电事故的若干思考[J] ,价格理论与实践:6-8.
[30]尚金成,周劼英，程满.兼顾安全与经济的电力系统优化调度协调理论[J].电力系统自动化,2007(6):38-42.
[31]方娜,廖家平.电力市场竞价模型中的Nash均衡分析[J].东北电力技术,2006(7):9-12.
[32]刘喜梅.不同的电力交易模式对电力市场均衡的影响分析[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2006(3):43-48.
[33]王承民,袁志强.电力市场的均衡与失灵问题探讨[J].电网技术,2004(13):66-71
[34]王承民,刘剑平.实时电力市场均衡理论研究[J].华东电力,2003(2):4-7
[35]王晛,张少华.考虑跨时段负荷响应的电力市场多时段均衡分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2006(20):33-38.
[36]马歆.考虑合约交易的电力寡头垄断市场均衡分析[J].长沙电力学院学报(自然科学版) 2006(1):24-26.
[37]臧宝锋,胡汉辉,王建兴.电力市场条件下的发电投资均衡[J].电力系统自动化2006(2):41-44.
[38]张晓东,高波.基于供给函数均衡模型的区域电力现货市场模拟分析[J].电网技术2005(13):80-84.
[39]于良春,杜琼.中国电力均衡的市场机制与政府监管[J].财经问题研究2005(7):32-35.
[40]王承民,蒋传文,张锐.基于均衡原则的实时电力市场模拟与等报价方法[J].电网技术2005(9):63-69.
[41]王晛,张少华.应用非线性互补方法的电力市场均衡分析[J].控制与决策2004(8):893-897.
[42]袁智强,邓超平,蒋传文.电力寡头垄断市场的均衡分析[J].继电器2004(5):7-10.
[43]袁智强,侯志坚.电力市场古诺模型的均衡分析[J]电网技术2003(12):6-9.
[44]陈志军.电力市场均衡点的探讨[J].电力系统及其自动化学报2002(5):12-16.
[45]王长军,张少华,李渝曾.考虑差价合同交易的电力市场均衡模型[J].上海大学学报(自然科学版) 2001(4):349-353.
[46]马歆,蒋传文.电力金融合约市场及其风险控制研究[J].华东电力,2002(9):8-11.
[47]张显,王锡凡.电力金融市场综述[J].电力系统自动化2005(20):1-10.
[48]袁兆强,许强.保险理论在电力容量市场中的应用初探[J].技术与市场2007(3):87-89.
[49]张少华,方勇.电力市场中的激励性机制设计[J].电网技术2003(1):52-56.
[50] Yokoyama,A. Price volatility and service interruption risk-hedging by transmission contract [J]. Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 21,Issue 1,Feb. 2006:211–223.
[51]段登伟,刘继勇.基于激励原理的可中断负荷[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版) 2005(3):143-148.
[52]方勇,李俞曾.电力市场中激励性可中断负荷合同的建模与实施研究[J].电网技术.2004(17):41-46.
[53]李生虎,丁明.电力市场中基于电价弹性的电力系统运行可靠性的协调控制[J].中国电机工程学报2005(24):34-40.
[54] Bhavaraju,Murty P.Hobbs, Benjamin Hu,Ming-Che.A Dynamic Analysis of a Demand Curve-Based Capacity Market Proposal:The PJM Reliability Pricing Model[J].Power Engineering Society General Meeting,June 2007. IEEE:1-3.
[55] Benjamin F. Hobbs,Javier I?ón and Steven E. Stoft. Installed Capacity Requirements and Price Caps:Oil on the Water, or Fuel on the Fire? [J].The Electricity Journal,Volume 14,Issue 6,July 2001,Pages 23-34.
[56] Kehler,J.H. Considerations for load as a virtual generator for grid security [J].Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2003, IEEE, Volume 4,July 2003 Page(s):13-17.
[57]刘宝华,王冬容,曾鸣.从需求侧管理到需求侧响应[J],电力需求侧管理2005(5):10-13.
[58]王冬容,刘宝华,杨赛.电力需求响应的经济效益分析[J].电力需求侧管理2007(1).
[59]王冬容,刘宝华等.单边电力市场静态稳定环节和带需求侧响应的组合市场模式[J].电力需求侧管理2006(1):14-16.
[60] Timothy J.Brennan,Demand-Side Management Programs Under Retail Electricity Competition ,99-02.
[61] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role,Electric Energy T&D Magazine,November-December 2003,16～19.
[62]傅勇.电力市场下基于可靠性的输电服务定价研究[J].电力系统及其自动化学报2002(6):40-43.
[63]赵俏姿,段献忠.批发竞争市场可中断负荷定价分析[J].华东电力2006(3):38-41.
[64]李扬,王蓓蓓,万秋兰.基于需求侧可靠性差别定价的电力市场交易新机制[J].电力系统自动化2007(4):18-23.
[65]王立永,张保会,王克球.适应电力市场运营环境的可靠性电价研究[J].西安交通大学学报,2006(8):969-973.
[66]吴政球,叶世顺,匡文凯.电力市场环境下的可靠性电价与可靠性交易[J].电网技术2006(4):74-77.
[67] Yu, R..Reliability prediction method for electronic systems:a comparative reliability assessment method[J]. High-Assurance Systems Engineering Workshop,Proceedings, IEEE. 21-22 Oct. 1996 Page(s):237–241.
[68] Youssef Hegazy and Jean-Michel Guldmann. Reliability pricing of electric power service: A probabilistic production cost modeling approach[J].Energy,Volume 21,Issue 2,February 1996:87-97 .
[69] Hobbs,B. F. Stoft,S. E. Bhavaraju,M. P. PJM Reliability Pricing Model - A Summary and Dynamic Analysis[J]. Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on Publication Date: Feb. 2007 Volume:22 ,Issue: 1 On page(s): 3– 14.
[70] Elegbede,A.O.C.,Chengbin Chu,Adjallah,K.H.,Yalaoui,F. Reliability allocation through cost minimization. Reliability[J].IEEE Transactions on Volume 52, Issue 1, March 2003 Page(s):106– 111.
[71] The value of supply security:The costs of power interruptions: Economic input for damage reduction and investment in networks(VOLL)Energy Economics,Volume 29,Issue 2, March 2007,Pages 277-295. Michiel de Nooij,Carl Koopmans and Carlijn Bijvoet.
[72] Electricity supply reliability : Estimating the value of lost load(VOLL)Energy Policy,Volume 25, Issue 1, January 1997,Pages 97-103. K. G. Willis and G. D. Garrod.
[73]何永秀,黄文杰,谭忠富.电力备用市场化运营需求研究[J].中国电机工程学报2004(3):46-51.
[74]何永秀黄文杰,谭忠富.基于投入-产出法的电力失负荷价值研究[J].电网技术2006(1):44-49.
[75]何永秀,王怡,黄文杰.电力需求价格弹性与系统最优备用的关系[J].电力需求侧管理2003(5):20-23.
[76]吴集光,刘俊勇.电力市场环境下最优备用容量的确定[J].电力系统自动化2005(15):10-14.
[77]陈其安,张宗益.Power Pool模式电力市场最优备用容量及定价[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版) 2004(10):160-163.
[78]曹娜,曾次玲.旋转备用辅助服务的需求与调度[J].继电器2004(21):13-17.
[79]王勇,钟志勇,文福栓.发电装机容量市场适当价格水平的确定[J].电力系统自动化2005(9):5-11.
[80]蒋纬纬,丁坚勇.电力市场中的备用需求和备用调度[J].浙江电力2003(2):1-5.
[81]葛炬,张粒子.备用服务A-S定价方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报2006(14):31-35.
[82] K. Afshar,M. Ehsan,M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad and N. Amjady. Cost-benefit analysis and MILP for optimal reserve capacity determination in power system.Applied Mathematics and Computation,In Press,Corrected Proof,Available online 13 July 2007.
[83]易亚文,石东源.电力市场备用容量的一种交易模式及其定价机制[J] .继电器2005(3):6-10.
[84]王乐,余志伟,文福拴.基于机会约束规划的最优旋转备用容量确定[J]电网技术2006(20):14-19.
[85]葛炬,张粒子.可中断负荷参与的备用市场帕累托优化模型[J].电力系统自动化2006(9):34-37.
[86]李晓刚,言茂松.我国运行备用辅助服务市场的模式与定价研究[J].电力系统自动化2000(9):12-18.
[87] X. S. Zhao,F. S. Wen,D. Q. Gan, M. X. Huang,C. W. Yu and C. Y. Chung Determination of AGC capacity requirement and dispatch considering performance penalties[J].Electric Power Systems Research,Volume 70,Issue 2,July 2004,Pages:93-98.
[88] Edward Vinea,Jan Hamrin,Nick Eyre,David Crossley,Michelle Maloney,Greg Watt ,Public policy analysis of energy efficiency and load management in changing electricity businesses.
[89] Jan Hamrin,Public Policy Implications of Mechanisms for Promoting Energy Efficiency and Load Management in Changing Electricity Businesses.
[90] David Nichols,Tellus Institute,Boston,Reducing Peak Demands Through Customer-Side Initiatives,September 6, 2000
[91] kenneth gillingham,richard newell,and karen palmer,The Effectiveness and Cost of Energy Efficiency Programs,2004.
[92] John P. Mitola,Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs Play Vital Role[J].Electric Energy T&DMagazine,November-December 2003,16-19.
[93] Midttun, Atle (1996) "The Norwegian,Swedish and Finnish Reforms:Competitive Public Capitalism and the Emergence of the Nordic Internal Market", in European Electricity Systems in Transition ed. Atle Midnun,Elsevier Science,London.
[94] How to resolve energy crisis by DSM in California.
[95] Brown,R.E.,Hanson,A.P.,Willis,H.L.,Luedtke, F.A., Born,M.F. Assessing the reliability of distribution systems. [J]. Computer Applications in Power,IEEE Volume 14,Issue 1,Jan. 2001 Page(s):44– 49.
[96] J.W. Transmission reliability under restructuring Pope[C] Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting, 1999. IEEE Volume 1,18-22 July 1999 Page(s):162 - 166 vol.1.
[97] Taylor, T., Marshall, M., Neumann,E. Developing a reliability improvement strategy for utility distribution systems[C].Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2001 IEEE/PES Volume 1, 28 Oct.-2 Nov. 2001 Page(s):444 - 449 vol.1.
[98] Kariuki, K.K.,Allan, R.N. Evaluation of reliability worth and value of lost load. [J].Generation,Transmission and Distribution,IEEE Proceedings-Volume 143, Issue 2,March 1996 Page(s):171–180.
[99] Jianxue Wang,Xifan Wang,Yang Wu. Operating reserve model in the power market[J].Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 20,Issue 1,Feb. 2005 Page(s):223-229.
[100] Stoft,S. The demand for operating reserves: key to price spikes and investment[J].Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 18, Issue 2,May 2003 Page(s):470– 477.
[101] Zhong, J.,Wu, F.F. Operating reserve value at risk[C].Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2006. IEEE 18-22 June 2006 Page(s):6 pp.
[102] Guangbin Lian,Billinton,R. Operating reserve risk assessment in composite power systems[J]. Power Systems,IEEE Transactions on Volume 9,Issue 3,Aug. 1994 Page(s):1270-1276.
[103] Leite Da Silva,A.M.,Alvarez,G.P. Operating reserve capacity requirements and pricing in deregulated markets using probabilistic techniques[J].Generation, Transmission & Distribution, IET Volume 1,Issue 3,May 2007 Page(s):439-446.
[104] Leffler,L.G., Chambliss, R.J, Ringlee, R.J. Operating reserve and generation risk analysis for the PJM interconnection[J].Power Apparatus and Systems, IEEE Transactions on Volume 94, Issue 2, Part 1, Mar 1975 Page(s):396– 407.
[105] Chan,C.Y.,Ni,Y.X., Wu,F.F.A study of operating reserve procurance in power markets with application of insurance theory:contract-based vs pool-based approaches[C].Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting,2002 IEEE Volume 3,25-25 July 2002 Page(s):1397 - 1402 vol.3.
[106] Hobbs,B.F.,Inon,J.G.,Ming-Che Hu,Stoft, S.E. Capacity markets:review and a dynamic assessment of demand-curve approaches[C]. Power Engineering Society General Meeting,2005. IEEE 12-16 June 2005 Page(s):514 - 522 Vol. 1.
[107] Litvinov, E.,Jian Yang. Integrate operational practices with the New England locational capacity market designs[C]. Power Engineering Society General Meeting, 2005. IEEE 12-16 June 2005 Page(s):961 - 963 Vol. 1.
[108] Falk,A.K. The Effects of Availability Upon Installed Reserve Requirements[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems.Volume PAS-85,Issue 11,Nov. 1966 Page(s):1135-1144.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |