转变中的美联储—全球金融危机以来美联储货币政策操作研究
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摘要
自2008年由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机爆发以来，美联储采取了一系列非常规的货币政策，是自上世纪三十年代大萧条以来规模最大、影响最广的宏观调控，引发了世界范围的重要关注。美联储作为发达经济体中央银行（货币当局）代表为应对金融体系改革和金融危机而采取的货币政策调整是国际前沿性课题。本研究主要剖析金融危机对中央银行（美联储）的冲击，重点研究美联储自危机爆发以来的转变，特别是中央银行跨越货币政策操作的中介目标（利率、货币供应量等）直接对最终宏观经济目标（充分就业、经济增长等）进行调控的转变。解析美联储作为国际金融大国的中央银行在新形势下较有成效的顺利转型，对中国具有极大的研究价值和借鉴意义。伴随着中国互联网金融、影子银行的快速发展，从货币政策中介目标到最终目标的传导途径越来越复杂、不易辨析，难以制定理想的货币政策中介目标（利率、汇率等）达到预期的政策调控效果。
本研究主要围绕美联储货币政策操作范式、操作工具的转变进行研究，重点解析金融危机对中央银行（美联储）的冲击，以及在此过程中中央银行功能的转变。并提出对中国人民银行货币政策转型相关的启示意义。拟定的主要研究内容如下：第一，基于国际金融危机前后中央银行（美联储）调控对象转变的研究：解析促进美国影子银行体系快速发展的金融环境及其发展需求；梳理影子银行体系的发展脉络，将国际金融危机爆发前后，影子银行的发展引发的美国金融体系结构变化进行阐述；探讨影子银行体系发展引发的中央银行（美联储）调控对象的变化。第二，基于美联储资产负债表结构变化的研究：比较金融危机爆发前后的美联储资产负债表结构变化，梳理每一项新增帐户（如海外回购池、临时补充融资计划）的来胧去脉；阐述美联储创建的所有货币政策新工具的形成及发展因素；考察美联储如何从传统的货币政策转变为资产负债表政策。危机之后，美联储增加购买机构债（如，房地美FreddieMac），对经济社会的影响更为直接。第三，基于中央银行操作工具变化的研究：梳理美联储公开市场操作中的创新工具的实施背景；阐述新操作工具是如何打破原有中央银行作为“银行的银行”限制，为各种机构、市场提供流动性支持；传统的货币政策操作，是中央银行向金融机构发放贷款，而在国际金融危机以来，美联储创建的针对交易商、主要信贷市场的货币政策新工具，如对特定机构支持便利等，直接向商业企业、信贷市场提供资金支持。第四，论述中央银行货币政策操作的新范式：基于美国宏观经济发展目标转型（从控制通货膨胀转向稳定就业、实体经济发展为主要任务），阐述美联储货币政策操作范式的变化。传统的货币政策传导途径为“操作工具——联邦基金供求——联邦基金利率——市场利率（中介目标）——经济、就业（最终目标）”。金融危机后美联储的大部分资产负债表政策是中立的（如TSLF），对准备金规模无影响。随着货币政策中介指标与宏观经济指标之间传导途径的复杂化，中央银行逐步跨越中介目标，直接调控宏观经济目标。第五，论述中央银行功能的转变：国际金融危机以来，中央银行（美联储）从传统的以调节货币供应量、利率的货币政策逐步转变为以调节流动性，甚至可以直接调节市场流动性为其主要职能，超越“银行的银行”传统职能。第六，结合转变中的美联储，探讨其对中国货币当局（中国人民银行）货币政策的启示意义，对当前中国金融体系改革背景下货币政策转型方向进行论述。
本文可能的创新之处：1.采用新的研究方法：基于目前学术界较新的资产负债表研究方法，对美联储资产负债表进行研究；2.材料之新：首次对美联储为代表的中央银行货币政策操作相关的第一手（英文）资料进行全面收集和整理，穷尽相关的所有官方原始资料，确保研究的真实性、客观性；3.视角之新：自国际金融危机以来对美联储的研究普遍认为其大规模资产购买（LSAPs）为主要内容的量化宽松（QE）等非常规性货币政策是美联储进行被动的货币政策调整，而本研究首次从国际金融危机前后中央银行主动调整货币政策操作范式和中央银行职能的角度进行深入研究；4.理论创新：对传统的中央银行货币政策传导途径、中央银行角色及功能进行挑战，提出跨越中介指标，直接调控最终目标的“操作工具——最终目标”的新型货币政策传导模式，以及中央银行从“银行的银行”到流动性管理职能的转变，从只对商业银行直接调控到对非银行金融部门、企业、信贷市场的直接调控；5.应用创新：结合美联储货币政策的转变，对新兴经济体，尤其是中国货币当局（中国人民银行）提出货币政策的启示意义，对当前中国金融体系改革背景下货币政策转型具有借鉴意义。
Since the global financial crisis broke up at2008, the Fed has taken out a series ofunconventional monetary policies, which are the largest monetary policies throughout theAmerican history. The Fed, as representative of the central banks of developed countries hascarried out monetary policy adjustments to deal with the financial system reform and financialcrisis, and the ananlysis of this would be an international important subject. In this study, we are tomaily analyze the impact of the financial crisis on central bank (the Federal Reserve), focus on theFed’s policy changes since the beginning of the crisis, especially the central bank carried outmonetary policy across its intermediary goal (interest rates, money supply) directly to the finalgoal of macro economy (full employment, economic growth and so on). The smooth transition ofthe Fed has great research value and significance to China and other coutries. With the rapiddevelopment of Internet banking, China shadow banks, and conduction pathway from theintermediate target of monetary policy to the ultimate goal is becoming more complex, which isnot easy to discriminate, therefore it is becoming difficult to make the ideal intermediate target ofmonetary policy (such as interest rate, exchange rate) as to achieve the desired effect of policies.
This study focuses on the transformation of the Fed's monetary policy operation mode,operation tool research, focuses on the financial crisis’s impact on central bank (the FederalReserve), and the function changes of central bank.
The main research contents are as follows: firstly, to analyze the resolution to promotefinancial environment and development needs of the rapid development of American shadowbanking system; combing the development process of the shadow banking system, theinternational financial crisis, USA financial system structure changes caused by the developmentof the shadow bank; to explore the affect of the shadow bank system of the central bank (theFederal Reserve).
Secondly, based on the study of the structural changes of the Fed balance sheet assets toanalyze the following aspects: the Fed balance sheet structure change before and after the outbreakof the financial crisis, combing each new account (plans such as overseas repurchase pool,temporary supplementary financing); the Fed focuse changes from traditional monetary policy intobalance sheet policy. After the crisis, the Fed increased purchases of agency debt (e.g., FreddieMac Freddie Mac), its influence on the economy and society are becoming more directly. Thirdly,based on the central bank operation tool changes in the background of the implementation ofinnovative tools: combing the federal open market operation; how this new operation tool urge thecentral bank to provide liquidity support for various institutions and market directly; Fourthly, to analyze the new paradigm of the central bank's monetary policy operations;Fifthly, to discuss thechanges of central bank functions: since the international financial crisis, the central bank (theFederal Reserve) adjust its monetary policies from the traditional to the monetary policy to adjustthe money supply; finally, combined with the transformation of the Federal Reserve, to giveimplications on the Chinese monetary authorities (the people's Bank of China) monetary policy.
The possible innovation of this paper: first, a new method: at present academia relatively newbalance sheet based on research method, study on the Fed's balance sheet materials; secondly, thenew materials: for the first time to take the Fed as the representative of the central bank monetarypolicy operation related first-hand (English) data; thirdly, the new perspective; fourthly, themethod innovation: to put forward central bank monetary policy conduction pathway, thetraditional role of the central bank and the function of the challenge; finaly, Application ofinnovation: with the change of the Fed's monetary policy, to make monetary policy implicationson emerging economies, especially China monetary authorities (the people's Bank of Chinese).
本研究主要围绕美联储货币政策操作范式、操作工具的转变进行研究，重点解析金融危机对中央银行（美联储）的冲击，以及在此过程中中央银行功能的转变。并提出对中国人民银行货币政策转型相关的启示意义。拟定的主要研究内容如下：第一，基于国际金融危机前后中央银行（美联储）调控对象转变的研究：解析促进美国影子银行体系快速发展的金融环境及其发展需求；梳理影子银行体系的发展脉络，将国际金融危机爆发前后，影子银行的发展引发的美国金融体系结构变化进行阐述；探讨影子银行体系发展引发的中央银行（美联储）调控对象的变化。第二，基于美联储资产负债表结构变化的研究：比较金融危机爆发前后的美联储资产负债表结构变化，梳理每一项新增帐户（如海外回购池、临时补充融资计划）的来胧去脉；阐述美联储创建的所有货币政策新工具的形成及发展因素；考察美联储如何从传统的货币政策转变为资产负债表政策。危机之后，美联储增加购买机构债（如，房地美FreddieMac），对经济社会的影响更为直接。第三，基于中央银行操作工具变化的研究：梳理美联储公开市场操作中的创新工具的实施背景；阐述新操作工具是如何打破原有中央银行作为“银行的银行”限制，为各种机构、市场提供流动性支持；传统的货币政策操作，是中央银行向金融机构发放贷款，而在国际金融危机以来，美联储创建的针对交易商、主要信贷市场的货币政策新工具，如对特定机构支持便利等，直接向商业企业、信贷市场提供资金支持。第四，论述中央银行货币政策操作的新范式：基于美国宏观经济发展目标转型（从控制通货膨胀转向稳定就业、实体经济发展为主要任务），阐述美联储货币政策操作范式的变化。传统的货币政策传导途径为“操作工具——联邦基金供求——联邦基金利率——市场利率（中介目标）——经济、就业（最终目标）”。金融危机后美联储的大部分资产负债表政策是中立的（如TSLF），对准备金规模无影响。随着货币政策中介指标与宏观经济指标之间传导途径的复杂化，中央银行逐步跨越中介目标，直接调控宏观经济目标。第五，论述中央银行功能的转变：国际金融危机以来，中央银行（美联储）从传统的以调节货币供应量、利率的货币政策逐步转变为以调节流动性，甚至可以直接调节市场流动性为其主要职能，超越“银行的银行”传统职能。第六，结合转变中的美联储，探讨其对中国货币当局（中国人民银行）货币政策的启示意义，对当前中国金融体系改革背景下货币政策转型方向进行论述。
本文可能的创新之处：1.采用新的研究方法：基于目前学术界较新的资产负债表研究方法，对美联储资产负债表进行研究；2.材料之新：首次对美联储为代表的中央银行货币政策操作相关的第一手（英文）资料进行全面收集和整理，穷尽相关的所有官方原始资料，确保研究的真实性、客观性；3.视角之新：自国际金融危机以来对美联储的研究普遍认为其大规模资产购买（LSAPs）为主要内容的量化宽松（QE）等非常规性货币政策是美联储进行被动的货币政策调整，而本研究首次从国际金融危机前后中央银行主动调整货币政策操作范式和中央银行职能的角度进行深入研究；4.理论创新：对传统的中央银行货币政策传导途径、中央银行角色及功能进行挑战，提出跨越中介指标，直接调控最终目标的“操作工具——最终目标”的新型货币政策传导模式，以及中央银行从“银行的银行”到流动性管理职能的转变，从只对商业银行直接调控到对非银行金融部门、企业、信贷市场的直接调控；5.应用创新：结合美联储货币政策的转变，对新兴经济体，尤其是中国货币当局（中国人民银行）提出货币政策的启示意义，对当前中国金融体系改革背景下货币政策转型具有借鉴意义。
Since the global financial crisis broke up at2008, the Fed has taken out a series ofunconventional monetary policies, which are the largest monetary policies throughout theAmerican history. The Fed, as representative of the central banks of developed countries hascarried out monetary policy adjustments to deal with the financial system reform and financialcrisis, and the ananlysis of this would be an international important subject. In this study, we are tomaily analyze the impact of the financial crisis on central bank (the Federal Reserve), focus on theFed’s policy changes since the beginning of the crisis, especially the central bank carried outmonetary policy across its intermediary goal (interest rates, money supply) directly to the finalgoal of macro economy (full employment, economic growth and so on). The smooth transition ofthe Fed has great research value and significance to China and other coutries. With the rapiddevelopment of Internet banking, China shadow banks, and conduction pathway from theintermediate target of monetary policy to the ultimate goal is becoming more complex, which isnot easy to discriminate, therefore it is becoming difficult to make the ideal intermediate target ofmonetary policy (such as interest rate, exchange rate) as to achieve the desired effect of policies.
This study focuses on the transformation of the Fed's monetary policy operation mode,operation tool research, focuses on the financial crisis’s impact on central bank (the FederalReserve), and the function changes of central bank.
The main research contents are as follows: firstly, to analyze the resolution to promotefinancial environment and development needs of the rapid development of American shadowbanking system; combing the development process of the shadow banking system, theinternational financial crisis, USA financial system structure changes caused by the developmentof the shadow bank; to explore the affect of the shadow bank system of the central bank (theFederal Reserve).
Secondly, based on the study of the structural changes of the Fed balance sheet assets toanalyze the following aspects: the Fed balance sheet structure change before and after the outbreakof the financial crisis, combing each new account (plans such as overseas repurchase pool,temporary supplementary financing); the Fed focuse changes from traditional monetary policy intobalance sheet policy. After the crisis, the Fed increased purchases of agency debt (e.g., FreddieMac Freddie Mac), its influence on the economy and society are becoming more directly. Thirdly,based on the central bank operation tool changes in the background of the implementation ofinnovative tools: combing the federal open market operation; how this new operation tool urge thecentral bank to provide liquidity support for various institutions and market directly; Fourthly, to analyze the new paradigm of the central bank's monetary policy operations;Fifthly, to discuss thechanges of central bank functions: since the international financial crisis, the central bank (theFederal Reserve) adjust its monetary policies from the traditional to the monetary policy to adjustthe money supply; finally, combined with the transformation of the Federal Reserve, to giveimplications on the Chinese monetary authorities (the people's Bank of China) monetary policy.
The possible innovation of this paper: first, a new method: at present academia relatively newbalance sheet based on research method, study on the Fed's balance sheet materials; secondly, thenew materials: for the first time to take the Fed as the representative of the central bank monetarypolicy operation related first-hand (English) data; thirdly, the new perspective; fourthly, themethod innovation: to put forward central bank monetary policy conduction pathway, thetraditional role of the central bank and the function of the challenge; finaly, Application ofinnovation: with the change of the Fed's monetary policy, to make monetary policy implicationson emerging economies, especially China monetary authorities (the people's Bank of Chinese).
引文
1Richard G. Anderson,"The First U.S. Quantitative Easing: The1930s", Federal Reserve Bank of EconomicSynopses,2010, No.17.
1正如Meltzer (2003)在其著作《美联储的历史》中所描述，罗斯福总统仍希望美联储继续购买债券。1933年10月10日，为了避免政治对抗，美联储的官员们决定继续购买债券。
2《黄金储备法》到1974年才被废止。
31933年8月28日，美国人民被命令向美联储交出其手中所有的黄金，包括金币和金条，自此停止了黄金的货币流通。
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1至2012年11月初，日本中央银行持有国债超过百万亿日元，达到107.6万亿日元，中央银行总资产达到153.7万亿日元，再次扩张了50%，商业银行在日本中央银行的经常账户规模也随之增长至43.8万亿日元。
2Orphanides A, Wieland V.“Inflation zone targeting”, European Economic Review,2000, vol:44,p:1351-1387.
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3该研究分析描述了信贷陷阱、潜在的解决方案和政策影响所引发的问题特征。其中，该研究还分析量化宽松、财政政策如何与货币政策结合起来，促进增加银行贷款。此外，该模型还显示了收缩货币政策或贷款供给如何导致贷款、总投资、抵押价格崩溃。
1除此之外，前瞻指引本身存在“状态依存”（state-contingent），而且受多种因素和风险评估的影响。
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1国际清算银行研究报告还指出：资产负债表政策应该在综合公共部门资产负债表的背景下讨论。重要的是，央行在利率政策方面享有垄断权，但不能逾越资产负债表政策。
2Feldstein M.“The Euro Zone’s double failure”, The Wall Street Journal,2011, vol:16,p:17.
1Rhee C, Sumulong L. A Practical Approach to International Monetary System Reform: Building SettlementInfrastructure for Regional Currencies,Asian Development Bank,2013.
2Martin Feldstein认为，在美国实施量化宽松政策过程中，会进一步促进人民币升值，而更强的人民币将有利于减缓通胀压力的持续上升，并且可以起到缩减进口成本的作用，进而增加中国人民的实际收入。
1发表联合声明的五大国际组织为：国际货币基金组织、世界贸易组织、经济合作与发展组织、世界银行以及国际劳工组织。
2Wright J H.“What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?”, TheEconomic Journal,2012, vol:122,p: F447-F466.
1Otaviano Canuto, Cavallari M. Monetary policy and macroprudential regulation: whither emergingmarkets,World Bank,2013.
2Thornton D L.“Would QE2have a significant effect on economic growth, employment, or inflation?”,Economic Synopses,2010,vol:3.
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1正如Meltzer (2003)在其著作《美联储的历史》中所描述，罗斯福总统仍希望美联储继续购买债券。1933年10月10日，为了避免政治对抗，美联储的官员们决定继续购买债券。
2《黄金储备法》到1974年才被废止。
31933年8月28日，美国人民被命令向美联储交出其手中所有的黄金，包括金币和金条，自此停止了黄金的货币流通。
1Laidler D.“The Rate of Interest and the Demand for Money--Some Empirical Evidence”,The Journal ofPolitical Economy,1966,p:543-555.
1Krugman P,“Venables A J. Globalization and the Inequality of Nations”, The quarterly journal ofeconomics,1995, vol:110,p:857-880.
1至2012年11月初，日本中央银行持有国债超过百万亿日元，达到107.6万亿日元，中央银行总资产达到153.7万亿日元，再次扩张了50%，商业银行在日本中央银行的经常账户规模也随之增长至43.8万亿日元。
2Orphanides A, Wieland V.“Inflation zone targeting”, European Economic Review,2000, vol:44,p:1351-1387.
1Bernanke B S, Gertler M, Gilchrist S.“The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycleframework”, Handbook of macroeconomics,1999, vol:1,p:1341-1393.
2Fujiki H, Okina K, Shiratsuka S.“Monetary policy under zero interest rate: Viewpoints of central bankeconomists”, Monetary and Economic Studies,2001, vol:19,p:89-130.
1Bernanke B S. and Vincent R.Reinhart，”Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term InterestRates”, AEA Papers and Proceedings，2004，Vol.94.No.2.
2Ugai H.“Effects of the quantitative easing policy: A survey of empirical analyses”,Monetary and EconomicStudies-Bank of Japan,2007, vol:25,p:1.
3该研究分析描述了信贷陷阱、潜在的解决方案和政策影响所引发的问题特征。其中，该研究还分析量化宽松、财政政策如何与货币政策结合起来，促进增加银行贷款。此外，该模型还显示了收缩货币政策或贷款供给如何导致贷款、总投资、抵押价格崩溃。
1除此之外，前瞻指引本身存在“状态依存”（state-contingent），而且受多种因素和风险评估的影响。
2Doh T.“The efficacy of large-scale asset purchases at the zero lower bound”, Federal Reserve Bank ofKansas City Economic Review,2010, vol:95,p:5-34.
3D'Amico S. Flow and stock effects of large-scale Treasury purchases, DIANE Publishing,2011.
1Mishkin F S.“Is monetary policy effective during financial crises?”, National Bureau of Economic Research,2009.
2Piazzesi M,“Schneider M. Equilibrium yield curves”,NBER Macroeconomics Annual2006, Vol:21. MITPress,2007,p:389-472.
3Christensen J H E, Rudebusch G D.“The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing”,TheEconomic Journal,2012, vol:122,p: F385-F414.
1国际清算银行研究报告还指出：资产负债表政策应该在综合公共部门资产负债表的背景下讨论。重要的是，央行在利率政策方面享有垄断权，但不能逾越资产负债表政策。
2Feldstein M.“The Euro Zone’s double failure”, The Wall Street Journal,2011, vol:16,p:17.
1Rhee C, Sumulong L. A Practical Approach to International Monetary System Reform: Building SettlementInfrastructure for Regional Currencies,Asian Development Bank,2013.
2Martin Feldstein认为，在美国实施量化宽松政策过程中，会进一步促进人民币升值，而更强的人民币将有利于减缓通胀压力的持续上升，并且可以起到缩减进口成本的作用，进而增加中国人民的实际收入。
1发表联合声明的五大国际组织为：国际货币基金组织、世界贸易组织、经济合作与发展组织、世界银行以及国际劳工组织。
2Wright J H.“What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?”, TheEconomic Journal,2012, vol:122,p: F447-F466.
1Otaviano Canuto, Cavallari M. Monetary policy and macroprudential regulation: whither emergingmarkets,World Bank,2013.
2Thornton D L.“Would QE2have a significant effect on economic growth, employment, or inflation?”,Economic Synopses,2010,vol:3.
[1] Adam K, Billi R M. Discretionary monetary policy and the zero lower bound on nominalinterest rates[J]. Journal of monetary Economics,2007,54(3):728-752.
[2] Andrés J, López-Salido J D, Nelson E. Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizinggeneral equilibrium[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,2004:665-690.
[3] Bernanke B S. and Vincent R.Reinhart，Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-TermInterest Rates.AEA Papers and Proceedings，2004，Vol.94.No.2.
[4] Bernanke B S, Gertler M, Gilchrist S. The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycleframework[J]. Handbook of macroeconomics,1999,1:1341-1393.
[5] Bernanke B S. The federal reserve’s balance sheet: An update[C] Speech at the FederalReserve Board Conference on Key Developments in Monetary Policy, Washington, DC.2009,8.
[6] Bernanke B S. The crisis and the policy response[J]. Stamp Lecture, London School ofEconomics, January,2009,13.
[7] Bernanke B S.,Reinhart V, Sack B. Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: Anempirical assessment[J]. Brookings papers on economic activity,2004(2):1-100.
[8] Brunner K, Meltzer A H. Predicting Velocity: implications for theory and policy [J]. TheJournal of Finance,1963,18(2):319-354.
[9] Bullard J. Monetary policy in a low policy rate environment[J]. OMFIF Golden Series Lecture,London,2013.
[10] Cecchetti S G, Karras G. Sources of output fluctuations during the interwar period: Furtherevidence on the causes of the Great Depression[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,1992.
[11]Chen H, Curdia V, Ferrero A. The Macroeconomic Effects of Large‐scale Asset PurchaseProgrammes*[J]. The economic journal,2012,122(564): F289-F315.
[12] Christensen J H E, Rudebusch G D. The Response of Interest Rates to US and UKQuantitative Easing*[J]. The Economic Journal,2012,122(564): F385-F414.
[13]Curdia V, Woodford M. The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2011,58(1):54-79.
[14] D'Amico S. Flow and stock effects of large-scale Treasury purchases[M]. DIANE Publishing,2011.
[15] Doh T. The efficacy of large-scale asset purchases at the zero lower bound[J]. FederalReserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review,2010,95(2):5-34.
[16]Eggertsson G B, Woodford M. Optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap[R]. Nationalbureau of economic research,2003.
[17] Eichengreen B, Bordo M D. Crises now and then: What lessons from the last era of financialglobalization[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2002.
[18] Evans C L, Campbell J R, Fisher J D M, et al. Macroeconomic Effects of Federal ReserveForward Guidance [with Comments and Discussion][J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2012:1-80.
[19]Friedman M, Schwartz A J. A monetary history of the United States,1867–1960PrincetonUniversity Press[J]. Princeton, NJ,1963.
[20] Feldstein M. The Euro Zone’s double failure[J]. The Wall Street Journal,2011,16:17.
[21]Feldstein M. What powers for the Federal Reserve[J]. Journal of Economic Literature,2010,48(1):134-145.
[22]Frank N, Hesse H. The effectiveness of central bank interventions during the first phase of thesubprime crisis[M]. International Monetary Fund,2009.
[23] Friedman M, Meiselmann. The relative stability of monetary velocity and the investmentmultiplier in the United States1897-1958[J]. Commission on money and Credit, StabilizationPolicies，1963.
[24] Fujiki H, Okina K, Shiratsuka S. Monetary policy under zero interest rate: Viewpoints ofcentral bank economists[J]. Monetary and Economic Studies,2001,19(1):89-130.
[25] Gagnon J, Raskin M, Remache J, et al. Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve:did they work?[R]. Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,2010.
[26] Goldfeld, Stephen M., and Richard E. Quandt. A Markov model for switching regressions[J].Journal of econometrics,1973,1(1):3-15.
[27] Goodfriend M. Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy[J]. Journal of Money,Credit&Banking (Ohio State University Press),2000,32(4).
[28] Hamada K, Horiuchi A.28The political economy of the financial market[J]. Banking inJapan,1999,3:30.
[29] Hamilton J D, Wu J C. The effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lowerbound environment[J]. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,2012,44(s1):3-46.
[30] Hancock D, Passmore W. Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgagerates?[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2011,58(5):498-514.
[31] Hicks J R. Mr. Keynes and the" classics"; a suggested interpretation[J]. Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1937:147-159.
[32] Honda Y, Kuroki Y, Tachibana M. An Injection of Base Money at Zero Interest Rates:Empirical Evidence from the Japanese Experience2001–2006[J]. Japanese Journal of Monetaryand Financial Economics Vol,2013,1(1):1-24.
[33] Keynes J M.. The General Theory of Employment [J], Interest and Money,1973.
[34]Krishnamurthy A, Vissing-Jorgensen A. The effects of quantitative easing on interest rates:channels and implications for policy[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2011.
[35] Krugman P R, Dominquez K M, Rogoff K. It's baaack: Japan's slump and the return of theliquidity trap[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1998:137-205.
[36] Krugman P, Venables A J. Globalization and the Inequality of Nations[J]. The quarterlyjournal of economics,1995,110(4):857-880.
[37] Laidler D. The Rate of Interest and the Demand for Money--Some Empirical Evidence[J].The Journal of Political Economy,1966:543-555.
[38] Meier A. Panacea, curse, or nonevent? Unconventional monetary policy in the UnitedKingdom[M]. International Monetary Fund,2009.
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