人口偏好结构转变、人口质量红利与中国农业发展
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摘要
与传统的人口转变概念不同,人口偏好结构转变是指家庭在人口生产决策中,具有经济理性的决策者在家庭总效用最大化的目标下调整对后代的数量和质量之间的偏好程度的过程。由于人口偏好结构转变是工业化程度的函数,工业化使得人口质量偏好不断被强化,而人口数量偏好被逐渐淡化。本文在工业化环境中讨论的人口偏好结构转变就特指由人口数量偏好向质量偏好的转变。人口偏好结构转变强度指标被用来衡量这种人口转变的程度。人口偏好结构转变过程中,生育率下降,进而影响到劳动力、物质资本、土地等传统生产要素的投入数量；同时质量偏好加大了家庭在子女的教育和健康等方面的投资,提高了劳动力素质,人力资本成为生产要素并对传统要素形成替代,则这种人口变化引起生产要素投入结构的变化。如果把农业发展定义为由生产要素投入结构变化而导致的农业生产函数的转变,那么人口偏好结构转变过程中就蕴藏着农业发展的新契机。在中国己进入工业化中期后半段和农业劳动力出现弱化的背景下,从人口偏好结构转变中挖掘新动力,充分利用人口质量红利加速农业现代化进程成为研究农业发展的新思路。
处于前工业化以及工业化初期社会的农业称为古典农业。古典农业产出的增长主要依靠传统要素即土地和劳动力投入的增加,土地固有的自然属性使得其数量增加极为困难,而增加劳动力投入相对比较容易,此时,追求家庭收入最大化的农民偏好于人口数量的扩张,数量丰裕的劳动力是古典农业增长的主要拉动者。因此,依赖劳动力数量推动的农业增长称为人口数量红利主导型农业。到工业化中期阶段,由于农业劳动力择优性非农转移和家庭抚养孩子的成本增大,农村人口偏好结构开始由数量偏好向质量偏好转变。生育率下降引起农业部门的劳动力供给趋于下降,大规模的物质资本被引入农业生产领域,并凭借其强大的生产能力逐渐取代土地和劳动力成为新古典农业增长的主要推动力,则人口数量红利主导型农业被物质资本红利主导型农业取代。当工业化进入后期阶段,人力资本的高回报率进一步强化了人口质量偏好,人口数量偏好已基本消失。在农业部门人力资本已有相当规模的存量和加速增长的基础上,人力资本在拉动产出增长中的作用日益突出,逐渐取代物质资本成为农业增长的主要引擎,农业的物质资本红利已经失去主导地位,农业形态最终过渡到人口质量红利主导型,从而农业发展宣告完成。
为了验证理论分析的结论,对已经完成工业革命的发达国家、正处于工业化进程中的发展中国家以及中国的农业投入与农业产出建立面板数据模型进行经验检验,结果显示发达国家农业增长主要依赖人力资本,人口质量红利主导型农业已经显现；发展中国家和中国的农业增长主要依赖物质资本,农业仍然处在物质资本红利主导的发展形态,但人力资本已对农业产出具有一定的贡献,预示着农业形态有向人口质量红利主导型发展的趋势。
随着中国工业化、城市化和市场化程度的不断加深,人口偏好结构转变将进一步对农业生产要素投入结构转变产生显著影响,农业部门将呈现出要素结构现代化、技术进步人力资本偏态化、土地经营规模化、生产组织形式企业化、农业收入与非农收入趋同化以及农业从业者多元化等现代农业的特征,农业部门最终发展成为“小”而“强”的现代产业部门,相应的农业发展形态也由目前的物质资本红利主导型过渡到人口质量红利主导型。由理论推演和经验分析可以引申出一系列促进农业发展的政策建议,政府相关部门应加快出台有关农村剩余劳动力转移的配套政策、向农村地区提供补偿性教育政策、搭建有利于土地规模经营的政策平台、加强农村基础设施建设,以加速人口偏好结构转变和农业现代化进程。
Different from the traditional concept of demographic transition, the populationpreference structure transformation is a process in which the preference degree of future generations's quantity and quality is adjusted by economically rational decision-makers in order to get the utility maximization in a family.As the structure transition of population preference is a function of the degree of industrialization, industrialization makes the population quality preference has been strengthened, while the population quantity preference is weakened. Structure transition of population preference discussed in this paper in an industrial environment refers to the transition from quantity preference to quality preference.Intensity index of population-preference-structure-transition is invited to measure the degree of the demographic transition. In the process of population-preference-structure-transition, fertility rate is falling, which affects the inputting amount of traditional productive factors such as labor force, physical capital and land. At the same time, quality preference increases the investment in children's education and health care, improving the labor force quality, and human capital becomes the productive element replacing the traditional elements. Then this demographic change leads to the change of productive elements inputting structure. If we define the agricultural development as the change of agricultural production function by the change of inputting structure of productive elements, then new opportunity of agricultural development will be generated in the process of the structure transition of population preference. Under the background that China has entered the second half of the industrialization metaphase while the agricultural labor force is weakening, if we can excavate new ideas from the structure transition of population preference, making full use of population quality bonus to accelerate agricultural modernization will serve as a new thought on the development of agriculture.
Classical agriculture refers to the pre-industrialization and the early stage industrialization, whose productive growth relies mainly on traditional elements such as the inputting increasing of land and labor. However, the inherent nature of land makes its increasing extremely difficult, and the increasing of labor input is relatively easy. At this point, peasants seeking to maximize their income prefer the expansion of population. The abundant labor force is a major driver of classical agricultural growth. Therefore, agricultural growth depending on the number of labor force is called population-dividend-dominant agriculture. At the mid-term stage of industrialization, due to agricultural labor force prefer non-agricultural transfer and the increasing of the raising children cost, rural population preference structure began changing from quantity to quality preference. Fertility decline caused the labor supply falling in agricultural sector, then large-scale physical capital was introduced into agricultural productive field. Relying on its strong productive capacity, physical capital gradually replaced land and labor force as the main driver of the growth of new classical agricultural, and the so called population-dividend-dominant agriculture was finally replaced by physical-capital-bonus-dominant agriculture. When industrialization entered into the later period, high rate of return of human capital further strengthened the preference of population quality, and the quantity preference nearly disappeared. On the basis of sizable stock and accelerated growth in the department of agriculture, human capital had become an increasingly important role in driving the growth of outputting, gradually replaced the physical capital and became the main engine of agricultural growth. Agricultural material capital bonus had lost its dominant position, and agricultural form eventually transited to the population quality dividend dominant stage, thereby completed an agricultural development. In order to verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis, the author makes empirical test on developed countries having finished industrial revolution, developing countries in the process of industrialization and the panel data model of China on agricultural inputting and outputting. The results show that agricultural growth of developed countries mainly depends on the human capital, and the population quality dividend dominant agriculture has already appeared. Agricultural growth in developing countries including China mainly depends on physical capital, and agriculture is still at the physical-capital-bonus-dominant stage, while human capital has made certain contribution to agricultural output, which heralds the agricultural form will develop to population quality dividend dominant stage.
In the wake of the deepening of China's industrialization, urbanization and marketization, structure transition of population preference will further have a significant impact on the change of inputting structure of agricultural productive elements. Agricultural sector will present the following features:modernization of structure and factors, skewness of technological progress and human capital, large scale land management, enterprization of productive organization form, assimilation of agricultural income and non-agricultural income, agricultural community diversity, etc. Agricultural sector will finally develop into a small but strong modern stage, correspondingly, agricultural development form will also transit form the current material-capital-dominant style to a population quality dividend dominant style. By theoretical deduction and empirical analysis, we can expound a series of policy suggestions to promote the development of agriculture:the relevant government departments should speed up to unveil supporting policies of rural surplus labor force, to provide compensatory education policy for rural areas, to establish the policy platform benefit to large-scale land management, to strengthen the rural infrastructure construction, etc, in order to accelerate the structure transition of population preference and the agricultural modernization.
处于前工业化以及工业化初期社会的农业称为古典农业。古典农业产出的增长主要依靠传统要素即土地和劳动力投入的增加,土地固有的自然属性使得其数量增加极为困难,而增加劳动力投入相对比较容易,此时,追求家庭收入最大化的农民偏好于人口数量的扩张,数量丰裕的劳动力是古典农业增长的主要拉动者。因此,依赖劳动力数量推动的农业增长称为人口数量红利主导型农业。到工业化中期阶段,由于农业劳动力择优性非农转移和家庭抚养孩子的成本增大,农村人口偏好结构开始由数量偏好向质量偏好转变。生育率下降引起农业部门的劳动力供给趋于下降,大规模的物质资本被引入农业生产领域,并凭借其强大的生产能力逐渐取代土地和劳动力成为新古典农业增长的主要推动力,则人口数量红利主导型农业被物质资本红利主导型农业取代。当工业化进入后期阶段,人力资本的高回报率进一步强化了人口质量偏好,人口数量偏好已基本消失。在农业部门人力资本已有相当规模的存量和加速增长的基础上,人力资本在拉动产出增长中的作用日益突出,逐渐取代物质资本成为农业增长的主要引擎,农业的物质资本红利已经失去主导地位,农业形态最终过渡到人口质量红利主导型,从而农业发展宣告完成。
为了验证理论分析的结论,对已经完成工业革命的发达国家、正处于工业化进程中的发展中国家以及中国的农业投入与农业产出建立面板数据模型进行经验检验,结果显示发达国家农业增长主要依赖人力资本,人口质量红利主导型农业已经显现；发展中国家和中国的农业增长主要依赖物质资本,农业仍然处在物质资本红利主导的发展形态,但人力资本已对农业产出具有一定的贡献,预示着农业形态有向人口质量红利主导型发展的趋势。
随着中国工业化、城市化和市场化程度的不断加深,人口偏好结构转变将进一步对农业生产要素投入结构转变产生显著影响,农业部门将呈现出要素结构现代化、技术进步人力资本偏态化、土地经营规模化、生产组织形式企业化、农业收入与非农收入趋同化以及农业从业者多元化等现代农业的特征,农业部门最终发展成为“小”而“强”的现代产业部门,相应的农业发展形态也由目前的物质资本红利主导型过渡到人口质量红利主导型。由理论推演和经验分析可以引申出一系列促进农业发展的政策建议,政府相关部门应加快出台有关农村剩余劳动力转移的配套政策、向农村地区提供补偿性教育政策、搭建有利于土地规模经营的政策平台、加强农村基础设施建设,以加速人口偏好结构转变和农业现代化进程。
Different from the traditional concept of demographic transition, the populationpreference structure transformation is a process in which the preference degree of future generations's quantity and quality is adjusted by economically rational decision-makers in order to get the utility maximization in a family.As the structure transition of population preference is a function of the degree of industrialization, industrialization makes the population quality preference has been strengthened, while the population quantity preference is weakened. Structure transition of population preference discussed in this paper in an industrial environment refers to the transition from quantity preference to quality preference.Intensity index of population-preference-structure-transition is invited to measure the degree of the demographic transition. In the process of population-preference-structure-transition, fertility rate is falling, which affects the inputting amount of traditional productive factors such as labor force, physical capital and land. At the same time, quality preference increases the investment in children's education and health care, improving the labor force quality, and human capital becomes the productive element replacing the traditional elements. Then this demographic change leads to the change of productive elements inputting structure. If we define the agricultural development as the change of agricultural production function by the change of inputting structure of productive elements, then new opportunity of agricultural development will be generated in the process of the structure transition of population preference. Under the background that China has entered the second half of the industrialization metaphase while the agricultural labor force is weakening, if we can excavate new ideas from the structure transition of population preference, making full use of population quality bonus to accelerate agricultural modernization will serve as a new thought on the development of agriculture.
Classical agriculture refers to the pre-industrialization and the early stage industrialization, whose productive growth relies mainly on traditional elements such as the inputting increasing of land and labor. However, the inherent nature of land makes its increasing extremely difficult, and the increasing of labor input is relatively easy. At this point, peasants seeking to maximize their income prefer the expansion of population. The abundant labor force is a major driver of classical agricultural growth. Therefore, agricultural growth depending on the number of labor force is called population-dividend-dominant agriculture. At the mid-term stage of industrialization, due to agricultural labor force prefer non-agricultural transfer and the increasing of the raising children cost, rural population preference structure began changing from quantity to quality preference. Fertility decline caused the labor supply falling in agricultural sector, then large-scale physical capital was introduced into agricultural productive field. Relying on its strong productive capacity, physical capital gradually replaced land and labor force as the main driver of the growth of new classical agricultural, and the so called population-dividend-dominant agriculture was finally replaced by physical-capital-bonus-dominant agriculture. When industrialization entered into the later period, high rate of return of human capital further strengthened the preference of population quality, and the quantity preference nearly disappeared. On the basis of sizable stock and accelerated growth in the department of agriculture, human capital had become an increasingly important role in driving the growth of outputting, gradually replaced the physical capital and became the main engine of agricultural growth. Agricultural material capital bonus had lost its dominant position, and agricultural form eventually transited to the population quality dividend dominant stage, thereby completed an agricultural development. In order to verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis, the author makes empirical test on developed countries having finished industrial revolution, developing countries in the process of industrialization and the panel data model of China on agricultural inputting and outputting. The results show that agricultural growth of developed countries mainly depends on the human capital, and the population quality dividend dominant agriculture has already appeared. Agricultural growth in developing countries including China mainly depends on physical capital, and agriculture is still at the physical-capital-bonus-dominant stage, while human capital has made certain contribution to agricultural output, which heralds the agricultural form will develop to population quality dividend dominant stage.
In the wake of the deepening of China's industrialization, urbanization and marketization, structure transition of population preference will further have a significant impact on the change of inputting structure of agricultural productive elements. Agricultural sector will present the following features:modernization of structure and factors, skewness of technological progress and human capital, large scale land management, enterprization of productive organization form, assimilation of agricultural income and non-agricultural income, agricultural community diversity, etc. Agricultural sector will finally develop into a small but strong modern stage, correspondingly, agricultural development form will also transit form the current material-capital-dominant style to a population quality dividend dominant style. By theoretical deduction and empirical analysis, we can expound a series of policy suggestions to promote the development of agriculture:the relevant government departments should speed up to unveil supporting policies of rural surplus labor force, to provide compensatory education policy for rural areas, to establish the policy platform benefit to large-scale land management, to strengthen the rural infrastructure construction, etc, in order to accelerate the structure transition of population preference and the agricultural modernization.
引文
① 参见：西奥多W.舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》,梁小民译,北京：商务印书馆,1987,第5页。
① 参见：西奥多W.舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》.梁小民译,北京：商务印书馆,1987,第26页。
① 详见：加里·S.贝克尔.《人类行为的经济分析》,上海：格致出版社、上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2011,第235-242页。
② 也可以看成是单位价格。
③ 参见：加里·斯坦利·贝克尔.《家庭论》,北京：商务印书馆,2005,第177-178页。
④ 假设家庭除了劳动收入外没有其他收入来源。
① Feng Wang,China's Population Destiny:The Looming Crisis,Washington, DC, Brookings,2011,1-7.
② Cai Fang and Dewen Wang."China's Darnemographic Transition:Implications for Growth",in:Garnaut and Song(eds),The China Boom and Its Discontents,Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005.
① 数据来源于：国务院人口普查办公室、国家统计人口和社会科技统计司.《转型期的中国人口》,北京：中国统计出版社,2005,第24页。
② 数据来源于：汤兆云.《农村计划生育与人口控制》,北京：江苏大学出版社,2009,第34页。
③ 数据来源于：路遇.《新中国人口五十年》(上),北京：中国人口出版社,2004,第129页。
① 样本中删去了1949年(含1949年)之前出生的农村人口,CGSS2008中记录的最年轻的被访问者是1990年。
① 参见：郭剑雄、李志俊.《人口偏好逆转、家庭分工演进与农民收人增长—基于中国农户经验的分析》,《南开学报》(哲学社会科学版),2010,第6期,第110页。
② 劳均受教育年数计算方法：各层次教育年数分别乘以各级受教育劳动力比重再加总求和,其中,“不识字或识字很少”以0年计,“中专”和“高中”合并以12年计,“大专及大专以上”合并以15.5年计。
③ 样本中有部分被访问者还处于在学状态,此处计算的平均受教育年数被低估,但这不影响我们观察随着出生世代递进的人口受教育水平的趋势。
① 数据来源于：田雪原.《中国人口政策60年》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009,第231页。
② 数据来源于：杜鹏.《新世纪的中国人口》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2011,第87页。
③ 同①。
④ 少数民族地区的计划生育政策开展较晚。
① 舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》,北京：商务印书馆,1987,第4页。
② 史蒂文斯和杰巴拉.《农业发展原理》,1988年英文版,第60页,转引自郭熙保所著的《农业发展论》,武汉：武汉大学出版社,1995,第122页。
① 西奥多·W.舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》.梁小民译.北京：商务印书馆,1987,第141贝。
① 关于劳动力无限供给的论述.详见Lewis W.A.. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour[J]. The Manchester School.1954.22(2):139-191.
② Solow R.. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1956,70 (1):65-94.
① 小罗伯特·E.卢卡斯.《经济发展讲座》,南京：江苏人民出版社,2003,第124页。
① 李子奈,叶阿忠.《高级应用计量经济学》,北京：清华大学出版社,2012,第175页。
① 参见：迈克尔P.托达罗,斯蒂芬C.斯密斯.发展经济学[M].(第9版)余向华等译.北京：机械工业出版社,2009：26.
② 亚洲合计中不包括日本。
① 数据来源于：安格斯·麦迪森(Angus Maddison)著,伍晓鹰等译.《世界经济千年史》,北京：北京大学出版社,2003,第7页。
① 参见：肖建中.现代农业与服务业融合发展研究--基于浙江实践分析[D].武汉：华中农业大学,2012：91.
② 余康,郭萍,章立.我国农业劳动生产率地区差异动态演进的决定因素--基于随机前沿模型的分解研究[J].经济科学,2011,2：42-53.
① 世界银行数据库(http://data.worldbank.org.cn)。
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① 参见：西奥多W.舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》.梁小民译,北京：商务印书馆,1987,第26页。
① 详见：加里·S.贝克尔.《人类行为的经济分析》,上海：格致出版社、上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,2011,第235-242页。
② 也可以看成是单位价格。
③ 参见：加里·斯坦利·贝克尔.《家庭论》,北京：商务印书馆,2005,第177-178页。
④ 假设家庭除了劳动收入外没有其他收入来源。
① Feng Wang,China's Population Destiny:The Looming Crisis,Washington, DC, Brookings,2011,1-7.
② Cai Fang and Dewen Wang."China's Darnemographic Transition:Implications for Growth",in:Garnaut and Song(eds),The China Boom and Its Discontents,Canberra:Asia Pacific Press,2005.
① 数据来源于：国务院人口普查办公室、国家统计人口和社会科技统计司.《转型期的中国人口》,北京：中国统计出版社,2005,第24页。
② 数据来源于：汤兆云.《农村计划生育与人口控制》,北京：江苏大学出版社,2009,第34页。
③ 数据来源于：路遇.《新中国人口五十年》(上),北京：中国人口出版社,2004,第129页。
① 样本中删去了1949年(含1949年)之前出生的农村人口,CGSS2008中记录的最年轻的被访问者是1990年。
① 参见：郭剑雄、李志俊.《人口偏好逆转、家庭分工演进与农民收人增长—基于中国农户经验的分析》,《南开学报》(哲学社会科学版),2010,第6期,第110页。
② 劳均受教育年数计算方法：各层次教育年数分别乘以各级受教育劳动力比重再加总求和,其中,“不识字或识字很少”以0年计,“中专”和“高中”合并以12年计,“大专及大专以上”合并以15.5年计。
③ 样本中有部分被访问者还处于在学状态,此处计算的平均受教育年数被低估,但这不影响我们观察随着出生世代递进的人口受教育水平的趋势。
① 数据来源于：田雪原.《中国人口政策60年》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009,第231页。
② 数据来源于：杜鹏.《新世纪的中国人口》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2011,第87页。
③ 同①。
④ 少数民族地区的计划生育政策开展较晚。
① 舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》,北京：商务印书馆,1987,第4页。
② 史蒂文斯和杰巴拉.《农业发展原理》,1988年英文版,第60页,转引自郭熙保所著的《农业发展论》,武汉：武汉大学出版社,1995,第122页。
① 西奥多·W.舒尔茨.《改造传统农业》.梁小民译.北京：商务印书馆,1987,第141贝。
① 关于劳动力无限供给的论述.详见Lewis W.A.. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour[J]. The Manchester School.1954.22(2):139-191.
② Solow R.. A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics.1956,70 (1):65-94.
① 小罗伯特·E.卢卡斯.《经济发展讲座》,南京：江苏人民出版社,2003,第124页。
① 李子奈,叶阿忠.《高级应用计量经济学》,北京：清华大学出版社,2012,第175页。
① 参见：迈克尔P.托达罗,斯蒂芬C.斯密斯.发展经济学[M].(第9版)余向华等译.北京：机械工业出版社,2009：26.
② 亚洲合计中不包括日本。
① 数据来源于：安格斯·麦迪森(Angus Maddison)著,伍晓鹰等译.《世界经济千年史》,北京：北京大学出版社,2003,第7页。
① 参见：肖建中.现代农业与服务业融合发展研究--基于浙江实践分析[D].武汉：华中农业大学,2012：91.
② 余康,郭萍,章立.我国农业劳动生产率地区差异动态演进的决定因素--基于随机前沿模型的分解研究[J].经济科学,2011,2：42-53.
① 世界银行数据库(http://data.worldbank.org.cn)。
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