我国城市失能老人长期照护问题研究
|
摘要
自1999年开始,中国已进入老龄化社会,2010年第六次全国人口普查数据显示,我国60岁及以上老年人口达到1.78亿,在总人口中比重为13.26%,全国65岁及以上老年人口达1.19亿,占总人口的比重达8.87%,预计到2020年,中国老年人口将达到2.48亿,占总人口的比重达17.17%。随着当前我国老龄化的不断加剧,老年人的社会问题逐渐成为了政府以及公众关注的焦点,老年人口比重的持续增加已经给社会发展带来了沉重负担,老年人的社会公共品支出不足、养老体系不够完善,由此引发市场供给的严重不足和服务标准的缺失,再加上老年人口的日益高龄化,使得老年人口的长期照护问题变得越来越严峻,特别是失能老年人口的长期照护问题更是亟待解决。
目前,由我国实行计划生育政策所导致的养老问题日益严峻,这在世界上也是独一无二的,加上我国的社会养老保障制度尚处于改革完善中,城市失能老年人口的长期照护问题已经成为难以回避的重大社会问题之一,这无疑向全社会提出了如何迅速建立针对城市失能老年人口长期照护需求的、功能齐全又结构完善的养老服务体系的严峻拷问。
基于此,论文在马克思主义方法论的指导下,运用需求理论、全人理论、福利经济思想的演化和福利多元主义理论,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合,定性研究与定量研究相结合,宏观研究与微观分析相结合,人口学研究与多学科介入研究相结合的研究方法,在厘清城市失能老人长期照护问题的理论脉络基础上,分析了造成我国城市失能老人长期照护困境的原因,提出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的基本框架和发展战略。
具体而言,论文共分为八章。
第一章为导论。主要是对问题的提出和意义、核心概念、内容框架与研究方法及论文的创新与不足等进行介绍。认为中国面临巨大的养老压力,城市失能老人的长期照护问题较为突出,研究这个主题的实质是在回答极具现实意义的重大问题。
第二章为理论基础与文献述评。主要对论文所涉及到的理论基础和相关文献研究进行了述评,国外文献主要探讨的内容包括老年人的需求及其评估、长期照护的分类、长期照护体系的构成等。而国内文献主要探讨的内容则主要包括失能老人长期照护的模式、我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状问题以及对策、我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的构建和完善等。无论是着眼于般老人还是失能老人,这些文献从不同侧面对相关群体的长期照护问题进行了研究,这些成果都具有很强的理论和实践意义。对需求理论、福利经济等理论的分析和阐述为论文奠定了良好的基础。
第三章为国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示。研究表明,许多西方发达国家已经根据自身的历史文化传统和具体国情,建立了比较适合自己国家实际情况的长期照护体系,这些国际经验对于我国建立城市失能老人长期照护体系具有较强的启示和借鉴意义。
第四章为我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状分析。研究表明,伴随着人口老龄化和人口高龄化趋势的不断发展,我国失能老年人的规模将会不断扩大,而解决失能老人长期照护问题显得非常紧迫,但我国现有的老年长期照护服务体系难以有效应对这一严峻形势。我国城市失能老人长期照护还面临着供需矛盾,床位不足与床位“空置”并存、服务内容不能满足失能老人的需求,也出现了服务对象“反向选择”的现象。追根溯源,本质上是失能老人数量增长快与长期照护事业发展缓慢的矛盾、失能老人服务需求多元化与照护水平单一的矛盾等。
第五章为我国城市失能老人长期照护存在的问题研究。当前,我国城市失能老人长期照护体系面临服务供给的主体、筹资模式、制度建设等若干方面的问题,这些现实问题的存在是统筹解决城市失能老人长期照护问题的切入点。
第六章为我国城市失能老人长期照护困境的原因研究。研究表明,造成城市失能老人长期照护困境的主要原因有长期照护的政策制度缺乏、长期照护的保障要素不足、长期照护的有效需求不足、家庭照护失能老人的功能逐渐弱化等,这些原因有的是客观因素造成的,有的是主观观念导致,有的是老龄化过程中长期缓慢形成的,有的是高龄老人人口数量在短期内急剧增长引发等。原因的探寻为长期照护体系的构建找到了依据。
第七章为我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策。在战略层面,要在全社会树立长期照护的新理念,要明确政府、市场、社会的合作与分工,要建立健全失能老人指导性法律法规,加快制定长期照护的中长期规划。在制度供给层面,要建立健全长期照护保险制度、长期照护服务补贴制度、长期照护服务管理体系、长期照护评估监督机制等。在照护支持体系层面,要鼓励发展照护养老机构、要创新多样化、高质量的长期照护服务项目,要培育高素质、专业化的长期照护服务队伍、要建立健全要素保障支撑体系。在服务模式层面,要构建“三位一体”的长期照护模式。
第八章为结论与展望。对论文的基本的结论进行了梳理,对未来进一步的研究方向予以了展望。
以上八章共同构成了论文的四个部分：研究基础、基本状况、现实考察、结论对策,这四个部分有着较为严密的逻辑关系,相互联系,层层递进。本文循着如何统筹解决城市失能老年人口的长期照护这一问题的总思路,在研究过程中,首先回答“为什么研究这个主题”“研究的基础是什么”?然后,对国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示进行分析,回答了“国际先进地区的经验怎样”?接着,以抓住供需矛盾分析这个方法对我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状予以回答,并对我国城市失能老人长期照护模式存在的问题,我国城市失能老人长期照护模式困境的原因予以深入分析,搞清了“问题是什么样”?最后,给出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策,回答了“怎样解决问题”?
本研究是以应用研究为主,具有一定的创新：一是较为系统地对我国城市失能老人长期照护问题进行了研究,回应了当前对该问题的重大理论和实践需求,从而为今后“人口老龄化”和“养老问题”的研究提供了较好的研究素材。二是提出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策,在战略层面、制度供给层面、照护支持体系层面、服务模式层面进行了分析和阐述,这一长期照护体系的确立,将会为人口老龄化理论的丰富以及这一问题的具体解决提供较好的研究资料和素材。三是较为系统地总结了国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示,这些西方发达国家已经根据自身的历史文化传统和具体国情建立了比较适合自己国家实际情况的长期照护体系,这些国际经验对于我国具有较强的启示和借鉴意义。四是清晰地指出了城市失能老人长期照护还面临着的严峻供需矛盾,其本质是：失能老年人口数量增长快与长期照护事业发展缓慢的矛盾、失能老人服务需求提高与照护水平较低的矛盾、长期照护追求效率与实现公平的矛盾,并鲜明地指出随着未来人口老龄化的推进和加快,这一供需矛盾将会更加突出。
当然,论文还存在一些不足：一是论文对典型案例观察、典型地区研究、典型方式方法的研究还显不足,囿于时间关系和经费支撑,论文虽对成都市5个区(金牛区、青羊区、锦江区、武侯区和成华区)进行问卷调查,但未能作出更进一步的人口学、经济学、社会学观察和思考,并以此作为论文观点的支撑和辅助。二是对理论与实践紧密联系还显不足。论文追溯了学科的理论源流和理论的具体阐述,但在给出和分析了这些理论,并以其为理论支撑之后,在结合实际问题研究中结合理论、实践理论、引申理论还很不足,在下一步的研究中加以改进。三是对国内外的失能老人长期照护的经验归纳性分析和总结不够,论文或多或少涉及了中西方的经验,但从理论的高度、从实践的操作性、从结合国情的深入细致阐述还有待进一步加强,特别是在中西方的比较与总结性研究中还做得不够。
Since1999, China has entered the aging society. The sixth national population census' data in2010shows that China has had178million old people aged60and above, the proportion of the population is13.26%; and has had119million old people aged65and above, the proportion of the population is8.87%; it is expected that in2020Chinese aging population total amount will reach about248million, accounting for17.17%. With the degree of the aging phenomenon becoming more serious in our country, the social problem of the elderly has become the focus of the government and the public. The proportion of the elderly is increasing, that brings heavy burden to the society, and causes a serious shortage of market supply and the social public expenditure for the elderly, the lack of service standard and the imperfection of the pension system and so on. With the development trend of the aging population to be clear and the aging of population step by step to the advanced age development, the problem of long-term care for the elderly has become more and more serious, especially that how to look after the elderly can't take care of themselves is more urgent.
The elderly pension problem caused by China's family planning policy is unique in the world. Chinese social security pension system reform is developing, and how to look after the disable elderly in the city in a long-term time becomes an unavoidable major social problem. There is no doubt that it is a grim challenge for the whole society, that's how to quickly set up the pension system with complete function and perfect structure, aimed at the need of looking after the disable elderly in the city in a long-term time.
Under the guidance of Marxist methodology, applying Theory of Demand, Theory of Welfare Economics and Welfare Pluralism, combining with normative research and empirical research, qualitative research and quantitative research, macro research and micro analysis, demographic research and multidisciplinary intervention research, on the base of clarifying theoretical contexts of the problem of long-term care for the elderly in the city, the article analyzes the reason why it is in the trouble that looking after the elderly in the city in a long-term time, displays the basic framework and proposes the development strategy of the system that is long-term care for the disable elderly in the city.
The article is divided into eight chapters.
The first chapter is an introduction. It mainly introduces why to bring up the problem and the meaning of it, related concepts and theories, research methods, research innovation and shortage. The article offers that China faces huge pressure to pension, and the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is serious, so the essence of studying the subject is in response to the major problem with practical significance.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. It mainly reviews theoretical basis and related literature research involved in the article. The foreign literature mainly discusses the need of the elderly and its evaluation, classification and composition of long-term care system. While the domestic literatures mainly discusses the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly, status and countermeasures of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, construction and improvement of the system on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. The literatures focuses on the general and disable elderly, studies the long-term care for related groups from different sides, and offers the result with theoretical and practical significance.
The third chapter is abroad successful experience and inspiration of long-term care for the elderly. Research shows that according to its own historical and cultural traditions and specific national conditions, many western developed countries have set up long-term care systems suitable for their actual situations. There is a strong inspiration and reference for our country to establish the system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city.
The fourth chapter is the analysis on our country's condition of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. Research shows that with the development of a population ageing trend, the size of our country's disable elderly will expand continually, so it is very urgent to solve the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly. Our country's existing service system of long-term care for the elderly is very difficult to effectively cope with the serious situation. And our country's long-term care system has many problems, such as the contradiction between supply and demand, shortage and "vacancy" of beds, and that service content cannot meet the needs of the disable elderly. And then the phenomenon of "reverse selection" is appeared in the service system. Research shows that there is the contradiction between fast increasing of the population of the disable elderly and slowly developing of the long-term care system, diversity of the needs of the disable elderly and simpleness of the level of care.
The fifth chapter is the research on the problems about the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. At present, there are many problems in the system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, includes the main body of service supply, financing mode and system construction. These practical problems should be resolved first.
The sixth chapter is the research on the reasons for why our country's pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is in the trouble. Research shows that the reasons include absence of long-term care policy, shortage of security elements of long-term care and effective demand of long-term care, weakening of the old man's family care function. And these reasons are caused by objective factors or subjective ideas, the process of aging population, and the sharp growth of elderly population in the short term. Through exploring these reasons, it is found out the evidence of the construction of long-term care system.
The seventh chapter is to put forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. On the strategic level, we should establish new concepts of long-term care in the whole society, define the cooperation and division of government, market and society, establish and improve the guidance laws and regulations on the disable elderly, and speed up the development of long-term care in long-term planning. On the system supply level, we should establish and improve the system of long-term care insurance, the system of long-term care services subsidy, the system of long-term care services management and the supervision mechanism of long-term care evaluation. On the care support system level, we should encourage the development of old-age care institutions, provide diversified and high-quality long-term care services, train high-quality and professional long-term care services, establish and improve elements security supporting system. On the service pattern level, we should establish the pattern of "family, community and institutions" long-term care.
The eighth chapter is the conclusion and prospect. The chapter generalizes the basic conclusion, and has an outlook to the future research direction.
The theme of the article is how to solve the problem on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. The article has four parts, which are foundation of research, basic situation, study of the reality and the conclusion. Firstly, the article answers the questions of "why study the theme" and "what is the basis of the study". Secondly, on the analysis of abroad successful experience of long-term care for the disable elderly, the article answers the question of "how about the experience in developed countries". Thirdly, on the analysis on our country's condition of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, on the analysis the problems about the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city and the reasons for why our country's mode of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is in the trouble, the article answers the question of "how serious is the problem". Fourthly, putting forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, the article answers the question of "how to solve the problem".
The article is given priority to the application research. Firstly, it is a systematic study on the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly, and provides good material to the future research on "population aging" and "pension problem". Secondly, it is to put forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. It analyzes on the strategic level, the system supply level, the care support system level, and the service pattern level. The establishment of long-term care system will supply much research data and material to enrich aging of population theory and solve this problem. Thirdly, it systematically summarizes the abroad successful experience and inspiration of long-term care for the disable elderly. According to its own historical and cultural traditions and specific national conditions, the western developed countries have set up long-term care systems suitable for their actual situations. There is a strong inspiration and reference for our country. Fourthly, it is clearly pointed out there is the contradiction between supply and demand on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, fast increasing of the population of the disable elderly and slowly developing of the long-term care system. And with the future development of population aging, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent.
Furthermore, there are some shortcomings in the article. Firstly, there is not enough typical case observation, typical area research and typical method. Being short of time and expenditure, the article is just given a questionnaire to the five districts of Chengdu, as Jinniu District, Qingyang District, Jinjiang District, Wuhou District and Chenghua District, but there is not further observation and thinking in demography, economics and sociology, and it doesn't be used to support the theme of the article. Secondly, there is not enough connection between theory and practice. The article traces the theory origin of the discipline and analyzes these theories, but doesn't give enough combination of practical problem and theory. It should be improved in the further research. Thirdly, there is not enough analysis and summary of experience about long-term care for the disable elderly at home and abroad. The article is more and less involved in the experience of Chinese and western countries, but is remained to be further strengthened the explaining of the theory and operability. And there is not enough comparative and summative research in the experience of Chinese and western countries.
目前,由我国实行计划生育政策所导致的养老问题日益严峻,这在世界上也是独一无二的,加上我国的社会养老保障制度尚处于改革完善中,城市失能老年人口的长期照护问题已经成为难以回避的重大社会问题之一,这无疑向全社会提出了如何迅速建立针对城市失能老年人口长期照护需求的、功能齐全又结构完善的养老服务体系的严峻拷问。
基于此,论文在马克思主义方法论的指导下,运用需求理论、全人理论、福利经济思想的演化和福利多元主义理论,采用规范研究与实证研究相结合,定性研究与定量研究相结合,宏观研究与微观分析相结合,人口学研究与多学科介入研究相结合的研究方法,在厘清城市失能老人长期照护问题的理论脉络基础上,分析了造成我国城市失能老人长期照护困境的原因,提出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的基本框架和发展战略。
具体而言,论文共分为八章。
第一章为导论。主要是对问题的提出和意义、核心概念、内容框架与研究方法及论文的创新与不足等进行介绍。认为中国面临巨大的养老压力,城市失能老人的长期照护问题较为突出,研究这个主题的实质是在回答极具现实意义的重大问题。
第二章为理论基础与文献述评。主要对论文所涉及到的理论基础和相关文献研究进行了述评,国外文献主要探讨的内容包括老年人的需求及其评估、长期照护的分类、长期照护体系的构成等。而国内文献主要探讨的内容则主要包括失能老人长期照护的模式、我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状问题以及对策、我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的构建和完善等。无论是着眼于般老人还是失能老人,这些文献从不同侧面对相关群体的长期照护问题进行了研究,这些成果都具有很强的理论和实践意义。对需求理论、福利经济等理论的分析和阐述为论文奠定了良好的基础。
第三章为国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示。研究表明,许多西方发达国家已经根据自身的历史文化传统和具体国情,建立了比较适合自己国家实际情况的长期照护体系,这些国际经验对于我国建立城市失能老人长期照护体系具有较强的启示和借鉴意义。
第四章为我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状分析。研究表明,伴随着人口老龄化和人口高龄化趋势的不断发展,我国失能老年人的规模将会不断扩大,而解决失能老人长期照护问题显得非常紧迫,但我国现有的老年长期照护服务体系难以有效应对这一严峻形势。我国城市失能老人长期照护还面临着供需矛盾,床位不足与床位“空置”并存、服务内容不能满足失能老人的需求,也出现了服务对象“反向选择”的现象。追根溯源,本质上是失能老人数量增长快与长期照护事业发展缓慢的矛盾、失能老人服务需求多元化与照护水平单一的矛盾等。
第五章为我国城市失能老人长期照护存在的问题研究。当前,我国城市失能老人长期照护体系面临服务供给的主体、筹资模式、制度建设等若干方面的问题,这些现实问题的存在是统筹解决城市失能老人长期照护问题的切入点。
第六章为我国城市失能老人长期照护困境的原因研究。研究表明,造成城市失能老人长期照护困境的主要原因有长期照护的政策制度缺乏、长期照护的保障要素不足、长期照护的有效需求不足、家庭照护失能老人的功能逐渐弱化等,这些原因有的是客观因素造成的,有的是主观观念导致,有的是老龄化过程中长期缓慢形成的,有的是高龄老人人口数量在短期内急剧增长引发等。原因的探寻为长期照护体系的构建找到了依据。
第七章为我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策。在战略层面,要在全社会树立长期照护的新理念,要明确政府、市场、社会的合作与分工,要建立健全失能老人指导性法律法规,加快制定长期照护的中长期规划。在制度供给层面,要建立健全长期照护保险制度、长期照护服务补贴制度、长期照护服务管理体系、长期照护评估监督机制等。在照护支持体系层面,要鼓励发展照护养老机构、要创新多样化、高质量的长期照护服务项目,要培育高素质、专业化的长期照护服务队伍、要建立健全要素保障支撑体系。在服务模式层面,要构建“三位一体”的长期照护模式。
第八章为结论与展望。对论文的基本的结论进行了梳理,对未来进一步的研究方向予以了展望。
以上八章共同构成了论文的四个部分：研究基础、基本状况、现实考察、结论对策,这四个部分有着较为严密的逻辑关系,相互联系,层层递进。本文循着如何统筹解决城市失能老年人口的长期照护这一问题的总思路,在研究过程中,首先回答“为什么研究这个主题”“研究的基础是什么”?然后,对国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示进行分析,回答了“国际先进地区的经验怎样”?接着,以抓住供需矛盾分析这个方法对我国城市失能老人长期照护的现状予以回答,并对我国城市失能老人长期照护模式存在的问题,我国城市失能老人长期照护模式困境的原因予以深入分析,搞清了“问题是什么样”?最后,给出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策,回答了“怎样解决问题”?
本研究是以应用研究为主,具有一定的创新：一是较为系统地对我国城市失能老人长期照护问题进行了研究,回应了当前对该问题的重大理论和实践需求,从而为今后“人口老龄化”和“养老问题”的研究提供了较好的研究素材。二是提出了我国城市失能老人长期照护体系的建构对策,在战略层面、制度供给层面、照护支持体系层面、服务模式层面进行了分析和阐述,这一长期照护体系的确立,将会为人口老龄化理论的丰富以及这一问题的具体解决提供较好的研究资料和素材。三是较为系统地总结了国外失能老人长期照护的成功经验与启示,这些西方发达国家已经根据自身的历史文化传统和具体国情建立了比较适合自己国家实际情况的长期照护体系,这些国际经验对于我国具有较强的启示和借鉴意义。四是清晰地指出了城市失能老人长期照护还面临着的严峻供需矛盾,其本质是：失能老年人口数量增长快与长期照护事业发展缓慢的矛盾、失能老人服务需求提高与照护水平较低的矛盾、长期照护追求效率与实现公平的矛盾,并鲜明地指出随着未来人口老龄化的推进和加快,这一供需矛盾将会更加突出。
当然,论文还存在一些不足：一是论文对典型案例观察、典型地区研究、典型方式方法的研究还显不足,囿于时间关系和经费支撑,论文虽对成都市5个区(金牛区、青羊区、锦江区、武侯区和成华区)进行问卷调查,但未能作出更进一步的人口学、经济学、社会学观察和思考,并以此作为论文观点的支撑和辅助。二是对理论与实践紧密联系还显不足。论文追溯了学科的理论源流和理论的具体阐述,但在给出和分析了这些理论,并以其为理论支撑之后,在结合实际问题研究中结合理论、实践理论、引申理论还很不足,在下一步的研究中加以改进。三是对国内外的失能老人长期照护的经验归纳性分析和总结不够,论文或多或少涉及了中西方的经验,但从理论的高度、从实践的操作性、从结合国情的深入细致阐述还有待进一步加强,特别是在中西方的比较与总结性研究中还做得不够。
Since1999, China has entered the aging society. The sixth national population census' data in2010shows that China has had178million old people aged60and above, the proportion of the population is13.26%; and has had119million old people aged65and above, the proportion of the population is8.87%; it is expected that in2020Chinese aging population total amount will reach about248million, accounting for17.17%. With the degree of the aging phenomenon becoming more serious in our country, the social problem of the elderly has become the focus of the government and the public. The proportion of the elderly is increasing, that brings heavy burden to the society, and causes a serious shortage of market supply and the social public expenditure for the elderly, the lack of service standard and the imperfection of the pension system and so on. With the development trend of the aging population to be clear and the aging of population step by step to the advanced age development, the problem of long-term care for the elderly has become more and more serious, especially that how to look after the elderly can't take care of themselves is more urgent.
The elderly pension problem caused by China's family planning policy is unique in the world. Chinese social security pension system reform is developing, and how to look after the disable elderly in the city in a long-term time becomes an unavoidable major social problem. There is no doubt that it is a grim challenge for the whole society, that's how to quickly set up the pension system with complete function and perfect structure, aimed at the need of looking after the disable elderly in the city in a long-term time.
Under the guidance of Marxist methodology, applying Theory of Demand, Theory of Welfare Economics and Welfare Pluralism, combining with normative research and empirical research, qualitative research and quantitative research, macro research and micro analysis, demographic research and multidisciplinary intervention research, on the base of clarifying theoretical contexts of the problem of long-term care for the elderly in the city, the article analyzes the reason why it is in the trouble that looking after the elderly in the city in a long-term time, displays the basic framework and proposes the development strategy of the system that is long-term care for the disable elderly in the city.
The article is divided into eight chapters.
The first chapter is an introduction. It mainly introduces why to bring up the problem and the meaning of it, related concepts and theories, research methods, research innovation and shortage. The article offers that China faces huge pressure to pension, and the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is serious, so the essence of studying the subject is in response to the major problem with practical significance.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. It mainly reviews theoretical basis and related literature research involved in the article. The foreign literature mainly discusses the need of the elderly and its evaluation, classification and composition of long-term care system. While the domestic literatures mainly discusses the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly, status and countermeasures of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, construction and improvement of the system on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. The literatures focuses on the general and disable elderly, studies the long-term care for related groups from different sides, and offers the result with theoretical and practical significance.
The third chapter is abroad successful experience and inspiration of long-term care for the elderly. Research shows that according to its own historical and cultural traditions and specific national conditions, many western developed countries have set up long-term care systems suitable for their actual situations. There is a strong inspiration and reference for our country to establish the system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city.
The fourth chapter is the analysis on our country's condition of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. Research shows that with the development of a population ageing trend, the size of our country's disable elderly will expand continually, so it is very urgent to solve the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly. Our country's existing service system of long-term care for the elderly is very difficult to effectively cope with the serious situation. And our country's long-term care system has many problems, such as the contradiction between supply and demand, shortage and "vacancy" of beds, and that service content cannot meet the needs of the disable elderly. And then the phenomenon of "reverse selection" is appeared in the service system. Research shows that there is the contradiction between fast increasing of the population of the disable elderly and slowly developing of the long-term care system, diversity of the needs of the disable elderly and simpleness of the level of care.
The fifth chapter is the research on the problems about the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. At present, there are many problems in the system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, includes the main body of service supply, financing mode and system construction. These practical problems should be resolved first.
The sixth chapter is the research on the reasons for why our country's pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is in the trouble. Research shows that the reasons include absence of long-term care policy, shortage of security elements of long-term care and effective demand of long-term care, weakening of the old man's family care function. And these reasons are caused by objective factors or subjective ideas, the process of aging population, and the sharp growth of elderly population in the short term. Through exploring these reasons, it is found out the evidence of the construction of long-term care system.
The seventh chapter is to put forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. On the strategic level, we should establish new concepts of long-term care in the whole society, define the cooperation and division of government, market and society, establish and improve the guidance laws and regulations on the disable elderly, and speed up the development of long-term care in long-term planning. On the system supply level, we should establish and improve the system of long-term care insurance, the system of long-term care services subsidy, the system of long-term care services management and the supervision mechanism of long-term care evaluation. On the care support system level, we should encourage the development of old-age care institutions, provide diversified and high-quality long-term care services, train high-quality and professional long-term care services, establish and improve elements security supporting system. On the service pattern level, we should establish the pattern of "family, community and institutions" long-term care.
The eighth chapter is the conclusion and prospect. The chapter generalizes the basic conclusion, and has an outlook to the future research direction.
The theme of the article is how to solve the problem on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. The article has four parts, which are foundation of research, basic situation, study of the reality and the conclusion. Firstly, the article answers the questions of "why study the theme" and "what is the basis of the study". Secondly, on the analysis of abroad successful experience of long-term care for the disable elderly, the article answers the question of "how about the experience in developed countries". Thirdly, on the analysis on our country's condition of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, on the analysis the problems about the pattern of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city and the reasons for why our country's mode of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city is in the trouble, the article answers the question of "how serious is the problem". Fourthly, putting forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, the article answers the question of "how to solve the problem".
The article is given priority to the application research. Firstly, it is a systematic study on the problem of long-term care for the disable elderly, and provides good material to the future research on "population aging" and "pension problem". Secondly, it is to put forward advice on how to set up our country's system of long-term care for the disable elderly in the city. It analyzes on the strategic level, the system supply level, the care support system level, and the service pattern level. The establishment of long-term care system will supply much research data and material to enrich aging of population theory and solve this problem. Thirdly, it systematically summarizes the abroad successful experience and inspiration of long-term care for the disable elderly. According to its own historical and cultural traditions and specific national conditions, the western developed countries have set up long-term care systems suitable for their actual situations. There is a strong inspiration and reference for our country. Fourthly, it is clearly pointed out there is the contradiction between supply and demand on long-term care for the disable elderly in the city, fast increasing of the population of the disable elderly and slowly developing of the long-term care system. And with the future development of population aging, the contradiction between supply and demand will be more prominent.
Furthermore, there are some shortcomings in the article. Firstly, there is not enough typical case observation, typical area research and typical method. Being short of time and expenditure, the article is just given a questionnaire to the five districts of Chengdu, as Jinniu District, Qingyang District, Jinjiang District, Wuhou District and Chenghua District, but there is not further observation and thinking in demography, economics and sociology, and it doesn't be used to support the theme of the article. Secondly, there is not enough connection between theory and practice. The article traces the theory origin of the discipline and analyzes these theories, but doesn't give enough combination of practical problem and theory. It should be improved in the further research. Thirdly, there is not enough analysis and summary of experience about long-term care for the disable elderly at home and abroad. The article is more and less involved in the experience of Chinese and western countries, but is remained to be further strengthened the explaining of the theory and operability. And there is not enough comparative and summative research in the experience of Chinese and western countries.
引文
1 国家统计局,2010年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报,人民网,2011年04月28日.htrp://npmpc.people.com.cn/GB/10126806.html新华社,2009年9月27日.
3 http://www.gxnews.com.cn,新华网,2008年07月11日.
1 Katz, S., Ford, A.B., Moskowitz, R.W., et al. Studies of illness in the aged the index of ADL, a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. Journal of the American Medical Association,1963,85: 914-919
Dr. Robyn Stone, Gail Lee Cafferata and Judith Sangl.Caregivers of the Frail Elderly:A National Profile, Medicine & Social Sciences The Gerontologist Volume 27, Issue 5Pp.616-626
1 Cantor,Marjorie&Little,irgina. Aging and Social Care[A].In:Binstock,Robert H.,Ethel Shanas(eds.).Hand of Aging and the Social Sciences.(2nd ed.)[C].New York:Von Nostrand Reinhold Company,1985.
2 汤哲等.北京老龄化多维纵向调查报告[J].首都医学院学报.1995(2)
3 姜晶梅.我国老年人生活自理能力受损情况分析[J].人口研究.2007.
4 中国老龄科研甲心编著.中国城乡老年人口状况一次性抽样调查数据分析[M].中国标准出版社.2003.
1 王德文.居住及日常照料方式对老年人躯体机能转归的统计分析[J].统计研究.2008.
2 范灵璐,郑梓桢.不能自理老年人照顾方式调查与养老服务体系的建构[J].贵州社会科学.2008.
3 尹德挺.国内外老年人日常生活自理能力研究进展[J].中国老年学杂志.2008.
1 http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14045819.html2015年我国部分失能和完全失能老年人将达4000万人
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P11-16.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P14.
4 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理.2013(4)：P315-319.
1 张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新——以市场人口学为分析视角[J].人口学刊,2010(2)：P48-53.
1 倪荣,等.城市社区长期照料失能老人健康管理初探[J].卫生经济研究,2010(7)：P39-41.
2 潘金洪,等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2010(4)：P3-7.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-16.
4杜闻雯.社区老年日间照料服务中的社会工作介入[D],吉林大学2012年硕士论文.
1 姜向群.长期照料社会保险：应对老龄化的一剂良方[N].中国劳动保障报,2013年7月30日.
2 谢美娥.老年长期照护的相关论题[M].(台北)桂冠图书股份存限公司,1993.
3 邬沧萍.长期照料护理是老龄产业重中之重[J].人口研究,2001(2)：P22-26.
4 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：5-10.
5 Cantor,M.H.and Mark B.2000.Soeial Careofthe Elderly:The Effeets of Ethnieity,Class and Culture.New York: Springer.
1 Messeri,Peter,Merrill Silverstein, and Eugene Litwak.1993.Choosing Optimal Support Groups:Areview and Reformulation. Journal of Health and Social Behavior34:122-37
2 姜向群.长期照料社会保险：应对老龄化的一剂良方[N].中国劳动保障报,2013年7月30日.
1 杜闻雯.社区老年日间照料服务中的社会工作介入[D].吉林大学2012年硕士论文
1 Cantor. M. H.,& Brennan, M. (1993). Family and community support systems of older New Yorkers. Growing older in New York City in the 1990s:A study of changing lifestyles, quality of life, and quality of care,5,4-49.
2 Pfau-Effinger, B. (2005). Welfare state policies and the development of care arrangements. European societies,7(2),321-347.
3 曹艳春,王建云.老年长期照护研究综述[J].社会保障研究,2013(3)：P56-65.
1 Francesca, C., Ana, L. N., Jerome, M.,& Frits, T. (2011). OECD Health Policy Studies Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care:Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care. OECD Publishing.
2 Abel, E. K. (1986). Adult daughters and care for the elderly. Feminist Studies,479-497,
3 Kemper, P. (2003). Long-term care research and policy. The Gerontologist,43(4), 436-446.
4 Siguroardottir, S. H.,& Bravell, M. E. (2013). Older caregivers in Iceland:providing and receiving care. Nordic Social Work Research,3(1),4-19.
Litwak, E. (1985). Helping the elderly:The complementary roles of informal networks and formal systems. New York:Guilford Press.
6 Denton, M. (1997). The linkages between informal and formal care of the elderly. Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillisseraent.16(01),30-50.
Picone, G.,& Wilson, R. M. (1998). Medicare home health agency utilization, 1984-1994. Inquiry:a journal of medical care organization, provision and financing,36(3),291-303.
1 Blomqvist. P. (2004). The choice revolution:privatization of Swedish welfare services in the 1990s. Social Policy & Administration,38(2),139-155.
2 Johnson, N. (1987). The welfare state in transition:The theory and practice of welfare pluralism. Univ of Massachusetts Press.
3 Pandey, S. K. (2002). Assessing state efforts to meet baby boomers' long-term care needs: A case study in compensatory federalism. Journal of aging & social policy,14(3-4), 161-179.
4 Dahlberg, L. (2005). Interaction between voluntary and statutory social service provision in Sweden:a matter of welfare pluralism, substitution or complementarity?. Social Policy & Administration,39(7),740-763.
5 于戈,杨刚.加拿大的长期照护[J].社会福利,2009(5).
6 侯立平.发达国家(地区)的老龄人口长期护理体系及其启示[J].城市问题,2012(1).
1 顾大男,柳玉芝.老年人照料需要与照料费用最新研究述评[J].西北人口,2008(1).
2 刘成.人口老龄化背景下上海老年人长期照护的模式选择[D].上海交通大学,2006.
3 赵怀娟.老年人长期照护服务供给——国内学者相关研究综述[J].福建江夏学院学报,2012(10)：62-67.
4 陈翔.城市老年人长期照护需求评估研究——以北京市安慧里社区为例[D]中央民族大学,2012.
5 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：315-319.
1 于泽浩.中国城市失能老人长期照料问题研究[D].中央民族大学,2009.
2 倪荣等.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研究,2010(7)：39-41
3 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理职业技术学院学报,2004(6)：35-37.
4 赵向红.城市失能老人长期照料问题的应对之策[J].贵州社会科学,2012(10)：130-132.
1 李丽等.重庆市老年人的长期照护[J]].商场现代化,2009 (11)：92-95.
2 于泽浩.城市失能老人家庭照料的困境及应对——以北京牛街为例[J].社会福利,2009(4)：31-32.
1 林艳等.为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-63.
2 陈比聃.老年人口长期照护体系的国际比较[J].厦门特区党校学报,2013(2)：P42-46.
3 张广利,马万万.我国老人长期照护的模式选择[J].华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012(3)：P33-38.
4 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：P5-9.
5 唐咏.高龄失能老人主要照顾者心理健康与长期照护体系的建立[J].学术论坛,2012(9)：P168-173.
1 黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)：P522-524.
1 黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)：P522-524.
2 朱富强.平等和自由：阿马蒂亚森的福利经济学思想评述[J].中共天津市委党校学报,2010(6)：P70-77.
1 韩央迪.从福利多元主义到福利治理：福利改革的路径演化[J].国外社会科学,2012(2)：P42-49.
2 Rose, Richard. "Common goals but different roles:the state's contribution to the welfare mix. " The welfare state East and West,5(1986).
3 Wintersberger, H. (1990). Shifts in the welfare mix (Vol.1). A. Evers(Ed.). Campus-Verlag.
4 彭华民,黄叶青.福利多元主义：福利提供从国家到多元部门的转型[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(6)：P40-47.
1 Brodsky Jenny Jack Habib. and ILana Mizrahi.2000. Long Term Care Laws in Five Developed Countries. Brook-dale Institute for Gerontology and Human development, Jerusalem.
1 家康.德国的长期照料服务体系[J].中国社会导刊,2005(1).
2 丁纯,瞿黔超.德国护理保险体制综述：历史成因、运作特点以及改革方案[J].德国研究,2008(3)：23卷.
3 何林广.陈滔.德国强制性长期护理保险概述与启示[J].软科学,2006(5)：P57.
1 王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报,2002(12)：P132.
1 陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004 (s1)：117121.
1 周长洪,潘金洪.中国政策生育水平与实际生育水平的测算[J].中国人口科学,2010(4)：P13-z3.
2 朱勤.2000～2010年中国生育水平推算[J].中国人口科学,2012(4)：P68-78.
3 李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5)：P75-84.
1 王金营、原新.分城乡人口预测中乡-城人口转移技术处理及人口转移预测[J].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3)：P13-19.
1 陈友华,徐愫.中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2)：P34-39.
1 http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14045819.html2015年我国部分失能和完全失能老年人将达4000万人
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-16.
3 潘金洪等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2012(4)：P3-7
4 同上
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319
1 Cantor.M. H. and Mark B.2000. Social Care of the Elderly:The Effects of Ethnicity, Class and Culture. New York. Springer.
2 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：P9.
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
2 张翼,李培林,陈光金.社会蓝皮书：2014年中国社会形势分析与预测[M].社会科学文献出版社,2013年版：P8.
3 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P12.
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319.
3 曾友燕等.上海某社区老年人家庭护理需求的调查分析[J].解放军护理杂志,2008 (2)：P31-33.
4 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LJC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P12.
1 http://politics.gmw.cn/2012-07/10/content_4521959.htm2011年度中国老龄事业发展统计公报发布
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
1 戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析—基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)：P8-93.
2 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 朱微微.郭岩.老年人长期护理需求及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国护理管理,2010(12)：P57-60.
1 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319.
2 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P16-23.
1 戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)：P85-93.
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理.2013(4)：P315-319.
3 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P21-22.
4 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)：P48-49.
2 贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)：P48-49.
1 http://society.people.com.cn/2013/0619/c136657-21890540.html民政部发布2012年社会服务发展统计公报
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
3 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 http://www.shmzj.gov.cn/gb/shmzj/node8/node15/node58/node72/node99/u1ai29584.html2010年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-14
2 孙树菡,葛英.我国社会机构养老发展探讨[J].社会保障制度,2004(11),P28-31.
3 钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)：P7-8.
1 张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[J].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集：P15-16.
2 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P22.
1 谭晓红,程晓明,吴军等.上海市长宁区人口老龄化和疾病谱转变对卫生服务的影响和对策研究[J].中国全科医学,2007(1)：P77-79.
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
4 陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004(s1)：P117-121.
5 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
1 吴蓓,徐勤.城市社区长期照料体系的现状与问题[J].人口研究,2007(3)：P61-70.
2 张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[C].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集：P15-16.
3 张盈华.老年长期照护的风险属性与政府职能定位：国际的经验[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(5)：P44.
4 钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)：P8-9.
1 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013 (4)：P315-319.
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P36-37.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
4 郑造桓.社会质量与社会发展[M].浙江大学出版社,2010年：P111.
5 倪荣,刘新功,朱晨曦.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研,2010(7)：P40.
1 陈友华.徐愫.甲国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2)：P34-39.
2 孟群,等.中国老年人口失能流行趋势的分析与建议[J].中国卫生统计,2012(1)：P6-9.
1 桂世勋.中国高龄老人长期护理问题的思考[J].中国人口科学,2004(增刊)：P111-176.
1 穆光宗.老年人口大国的照料之难[J].中国社会工作,2011(8)：P59.
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P11-12.
2 杨菊华.人口转变与老年贫困[M].中国人民大学出版社,2011 P54-55.
3 上海市民政局、上海市老龄工作委员会办公室、上海市统计局编《2012年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息》,见http://www.shanghaigss.org.cn/news_view.asp?newsid=9143
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P11-12：
2 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(101)：Pll
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
2 http://www.0shanghaigss.org.cn/news view.asp?newsid=91432012年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P14.
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
4 王芳.公共服务动机对养老护理员工作态度的彩响研究[D].上海交通大学,2010.
1 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
2 陈卫民.积极应对人口老龄化的政策体系研究[C].人口发展战略与“十二五”规划研究报告.中国人口出版社.2010年版.
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 吕新萍.院舍照顾还是社区照顾——中国养老模式的可能取向探索[J].人口与经济,2005(3)：P8-13.
1 林艳,马寅初人口科学论坛：为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系[J].人口与发展2009.4(15)：52-64
2 郭平,陈刚.2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查数据分析[M].北京：中国社会出版社,2009.
1 凯思斯：就业、利息和货币通论(中译本,高鸿业译)[M],商务印书馆,1999年版
1 王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报.2002(12)：P134.
1 张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新--以市场人口学为分析视角人口学刊[J],2010(3)： P50
[1]曹艳春,王建云.老年长期照护研究综述[J].社会保障研究,2013(3)
[2]陈比聃.老年人口长期照护体系的国际比较[J].厦门特区党校学报,2013(2)
[3]陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004(s1)
[4]陈卫民.积极应对人口老龄化的政策体系研究[C].人口发展战略与“十二五”规划研究报告[M].北京：中国人口出版社,2010年版.
[5]陈翔.城市老年人长期照护需求评估研究——以北京市安慧里社区为例[D].中央民族大学,2012年.
[6]陈友华,徐愫.中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2).
[7]戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)
[8]党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)
[9]丁纯,瞿黔超.德国护理保险体制综述：历史成因、运作特点以及改革方案[J].德国研究,2008(3).
[10]范灵璐,郑梓桢.不能自理老年人照顾方式调查与养老服务体系的建构[J].贵州社会科学,2008(7).
[11]顾大男,柳玉芝.老年人照料需要与照料费用最新研究述评[J].西北人口,2008(1).
[12]桂世勋.构建广义的老年人照料体系——以上海为例[J].人口与发展,2008(3).
[13]桂世勋.中国高龄老人长期护理问题的思考[J].中国人口科学,2004(增刊)
[14]郭平,陈刚.2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查数据分析[M].北京：中国社会出版社,2009年版.
[15]韩央迪.从福利多元主义到福利治理：福利改革的路径演化[J].国外社会科学,2012(2)
[16]何林广.陈滔.德国强制性长期护理保险概述与启示[J].软科学,2008(5)
[17]贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)
[18]侯立平.发达国家(地区)的老龄人口长期护理体系及其启示[J].城市问题,2012(1).
[19]黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)
[20]家康.德国的长期照料服务体系[J].中国社会导刊,2005(1).
[21]姜晶梅.我国老年人生活自理能力受损情况分析[J].人口学刊.1999(2)
[22]姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1).
[23]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论(中译本,高鸿业译)[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999年版.
[24]李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5)
[25]李丽,等.重庆市老年人的长期照护[J].商场现代化,2009(11)
[26]林艳,等.为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系?[J].人口与发展,2009(4)
[27]刘成.人口老龄化背景下上海老年人长期照护的模式选择[D].上海交通大学,2006年.
[28]吕新萍.院舍照顾还是社区照顾——中国养老模式的可能取向探索[J].人口与经济,2005(3)
[29]孟群,等.中国老年人口失能流行趋势的分析与建议[J].中国卫生统计,2012(1).
[30]穆光宗.老年人口大国的照料之难[J].中国社会工作,2011(8)
[31]倪荣,刘新功,朱晨曦.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研,2010(7)
[32]潘金洪等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2012(4).
[33]裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)
[34]彭华民,黄叶青.福利多元主义：福利提供从国家到多元部门的转型[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(6)
[35]汤哲等.北京老龄化多维纵向调查报告[J].首都医学院学报,1995(2)
[36]王德文.居住及日常照料方式对老年人躯体机能转归的统计分析[J].统计研究,2008.
[37]王芳.公共服务动机对养老护理员工作态度的彩响研究[D].上海交通大学,2010年.
[38]王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报,2002(12)
[39]吴蓓,徐勤.城市社区长期照料体系的现状与问题[J].人口研究,2007(3)
[40]武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)
[41]孙树菡,葛英.我国社会机构养老发展探讨[J].社会保障制度,2004(11),
[42]唐咏.高龄失能老人主要照顾者心理健康与长期照护体系的建立[J].学术论坛,2012(9).
[43]谭晓红,程晓明,吴军等.上海市长宁区人口老龄化和疾病谱转变对卫生服务的影响和对策研究[J].中国全科医学,2007(1)
[44]熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)
[45]杨菊华.人口转变与老年贫困[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2011年版.
[46]尹德挺.国内外老年人日常生活自理能力研究进展[J].中国老年学杂志.2008(10).
[47]尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)
[48]于戈,杨刚.加拿大的长期照护[J].社会福利,2009(5)
[49]于泽浩.城市失能老人家庭照料的困境及应对——以北京牛街为例[J].社会福利,2009(4)
[50]于泽浩.中国城市失能老人长期照料问题研究[D].中央民族大学,2009年.
[51]曾友燕等.上海某社区老年人家庭护理需求的调查分析[J].解放军护理杂志,2008(2)
[52]张广利,马万万.我国老人长期照护的模式选择[J].华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012(3).
[53]张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新——以市场人口学为分析视角人口学刊[J],2010(3)
[54]张翼,李培林,陈光金.社会蓝皮书：2014年中国社会形势分析与预测[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2013年版.
[55]张盈华.老年长期照护的风险属性与政府职能定位：国际的经验[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(5)
[56]张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[C].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集.
[57]赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4).
[58]赵怀娟.老年人长期照护服务供给——国内学者相关研究综述[J].福建江夏学院学报,2012(10).
[59]赵向红.城市失能老人长期照料问题的应对之策[J].贵州社会科学,2012(10)
[60]郑造桓.社会质量与社会发展[M].杭州：浙江大学出版社,2010年版.
[61]中国老龄科研中心编著.中国城乡老年人口状况一次性抽样调查数据分析[M].北京：中国标准出版社,2003年版.
[62]中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)
[63]钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)
[64]周长洪,潘金洪.中国政策生育水平与实际生育水平的测算[J].中国人口科学,2010(4)
[65]朱富强.平等和自由：阿马蒂亚森的福利经济学思想评述[J].中共天津市委党校学报,2010(6).
[66]朱勤.2000-2010年中国生育水平推算[J].中国人口科学,2012(4)
[67]朱微微,郭岩.老年人长期护理需求及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国护理管理,2010(12)
[68]Abel,E. K. (1986). Adult daughters and care for the elderly.Feminist Studies,479-497. Blomqvist,P.(2004). The choice revolution:privatization of Swedish welfare services in the 1990s. Social Policy & Administration,38(2),139-155.
[69]Brodsky Jenny Jack Habib.and ILana Mizrahi.2000.Long Term Care Laws in Five Developed Countries.Brook-dale Institute for Gerontology and Human development, J erusalem.
[70]Cantor,M. H. and Mark B.2000. Social Care of the Elderly:The Effects of Ethnicity Class and Culture. New York. Springer.
[71]Cantor, M. H.,& Brennan, M.(1993). Family and community support systems of older New Yorkers. Growing older in New York City in the 1990s:A study of changing lifestyles, quality of life, and quality of care,5,4-49.
[72]Cantor,Marjorie&Little,Virgina. Aging and Social Care[A].In:Binstock,Robert H.,Ethel Shanas(eds.).Hand of Aging and the Social Sciences.(2nd ed.)[C].New York:Von Nostrand Remhold Company,1985. Dahlberg, L. (2005). Interaction between voluntary and statutory social service provision in Sweden:a matter of welfare pluralism, substitution or complementarity? Social Policy&Adrninistration,39(7),740-763. Denton,M. (1997). The linkages between informal and formal care of the elderly.Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillissement,16(01),30～50.
[73]Dr. Robyn Stone, Gail Lee Cafferata and Judith Sangl.Caregivers of the FrailElderly:A National Profile, Medicine & Social Sciences The Gerontologist Volume 27,Issue 5Pp.616-626.
[74]Francesca, C., Ana, L. N., Jerome, M., & Frits, T. (2011).OECD Health Policy Studies Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care:Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care.OECD Publishing.
[75]Johnson,N. (1987). The welfare state in transition:The theory and practice of welfare pluralism. Univ of Massachusetts Press.
[76]Katz,S.,Ford, A.B., Moskowitz, R.W., et al. Studies of illness in the aged the index of ADL, a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. Journal of the American Medical Association,1963,85:914-919
[77]Kemper, P. (2003). Long-term care research and policy. The Gerontologist,43(4),436-446.
[78]Litwak,E,(1985).Helping the elderly:The complementary roles of informal networks and formal systems. New York:Guilford Press.
[79Messeri,Peter,Merrill Silverstein, and Eugene Litwak.1993.Choosing Optimal Support Groups:Areview and Reformulation. Journal of Health and Social Behavior34:122-37
[80]Pandey, S. K. (2002). Assessing state efforts to meet baby boomers' long-term care needs: A case study in compensatory federalism. Journal of aging & social policy,14(3-4),161-179.
[81]Pfau-Effinger,B-(2005). Welfare state policies and the development of care arrangements.European societies,7(2),321-347.
[82]Picone,G.,&Wilson,R.M.(1998).Medicare home health agency utilization,1984-1994. Inquiry:a journal of medical care organization,provision and financing,36(3),291-303.
[83]Rose,Richard. "Common goals but different roles:the state's contribution to the welfare mix." The welfare state East and West,5(1986).
[84]Siguroard6ttir,S. H.,& Bravell,M. E. (2013). Older caregivers in Iceland:providing and receiving care.Nordic Social Work Research,3(1),4～19.
[85]Wintersberger,H. (1990).Shifts in the welfare mix(Vol.1).A.Evers(Ed.).Campus-Verlag.
3 http://www.gxnews.com.cn,新华网,2008年07月11日.
1 Katz, S., Ford, A.B., Moskowitz, R.W., et al. Studies of illness in the aged the index of ADL, a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. Journal of the American Medical Association,1963,85: 914-919
Dr. Robyn Stone, Gail Lee Cafferata and Judith Sangl.Caregivers of the Frail Elderly:A National Profile, Medicine & Social Sciences The Gerontologist Volume 27, Issue 5Pp.616-626
1 Cantor,Marjorie&Little,irgina. Aging and Social Care[A].In:Binstock,Robert H.,Ethel Shanas(eds.).Hand of Aging and the Social Sciences.(2nd ed.)[C].New York:Von Nostrand Reinhold Company,1985.
2 汤哲等.北京老龄化多维纵向调查报告[J].首都医学院学报.1995(2)
3 姜晶梅.我国老年人生活自理能力受损情况分析[J].人口研究.2007.
4 中国老龄科研甲心编著.中国城乡老年人口状况一次性抽样调查数据分析[M].中国标准出版社.2003.
1 王德文.居住及日常照料方式对老年人躯体机能转归的统计分析[J].统计研究.2008.
2 范灵璐,郑梓桢.不能自理老年人照顾方式调查与养老服务体系的建构[J].贵州社会科学.2008.
3 尹德挺.国内外老年人日常生活自理能力研究进展[J].中国老年学杂志.2008.
1 http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14045819.html2015年我国部分失能和完全失能老年人将达4000万人
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P11-16.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P14.
4 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理.2013(4)：P315-319.
1 张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新——以市场人口学为分析视角[J].人口学刊,2010(2)：P48-53.
1 倪荣,等.城市社区长期照料失能老人健康管理初探[J].卫生经济研究,2010(7)：P39-41.
2 潘金洪,等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2010(4)：P3-7.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-16.
4杜闻雯.社区老年日间照料服务中的社会工作介入[D],吉林大学2012年硕士论文.
1 姜向群.长期照料社会保险：应对老龄化的一剂良方[N].中国劳动保障报,2013年7月30日.
2 谢美娥.老年长期照护的相关论题[M].(台北)桂冠图书股份存限公司,1993.
3 邬沧萍.长期照料护理是老龄产业重中之重[J].人口研究,2001(2)：P22-26.
4 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：5-10.
5 Cantor,M.H.and Mark B.2000.Soeial Careofthe Elderly:The Effeets of Ethnieity,Class and Culture.New York: Springer.
1 Messeri,Peter,Merrill Silverstein, and Eugene Litwak.1993.Choosing Optimal Support Groups:Areview and Reformulation. Journal of Health and Social Behavior34:122-37
2 姜向群.长期照料社会保险：应对老龄化的一剂良方[N].中国劳动保障报,2013年7月30日.
1 杜闻雯.社区老年日间照料服务中的社会工作介入[D].吉林大学2012年硕士论文
1 Cantor. M. H.,& Brennan, M. (1993). Family and community support systems of older New Yorkers. Growing older in New York City in the 1990s:A study of changing lifestyles, quality of life, and quality of care,5,4-49.
2 Pfau-Effinger, B. (2005). Welfare state policies and the development of care arrangements. European societies,7(2),321-347.
3 曹艳春,王建云.老年长期照护研究综述[J].社会保障研究,2013(3)：P56-65.
1 Francesca, C., Ana, L. N., Jerome, M.,& Frits, T. (2011). OECD Health Policy Studies Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care:Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care. OECD Publishing.
2 Abel, E. K. (1986). Adult daughters and care for the elderly. Feminist Studies,479-497,
3 Kemper, P. (2003). Long-term care research and policy. The Gerontologist,43(4), 436-446.
4 Siguroardottir, S. H.,& Bravell, M. E. (2013). Older caregivers in Iceland:providing and receiving care. Nordic Social Work Research,3(1),4-19.
Litwak, E. (1985). Helping the elderly:The complementary roles of informal networks and formal systems. New York:Guilford Press.
6 Denton, M. (1997). The linkages between informal and formal care of the elderly. Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillisseraent.16(01),30-50.
Picone, G.,& Wilson, R. M. (1998). Medicare home health agency utilization, 1984-1994. Inquiry:a journal of medical care organization, provision and financing,36(3),291-303.
1 Blomqvist. P. (2004). The choice revolution:privatization of Swedish welfare services in the 1990s. Social Policy & Administration,38(2),139-155.
2 Johnson, N. (1987). The welfare state in transition:The theory and practice of welfare pluralism. Univ of Massachusetts Press.
3 Pandey, S. K. (2002). Assessing state efforts to meet baby boomers' long-term care needs: A case study in compensatory federalism. Journal of aging & social policy,14(3-4), 161-179.
4 Dahlberg, L. (2005). Interaction between voluntary and statutory social service provision in Sweden:a matter of welfare pluralism, substitution or complementarity?. Social Policy & Administration,39(7),740-763.
5 于戈,杨刚.加拿大的长期照护[J].社会福利,2009(5).
6 侯立平.发达国家(地区)的老龄人口长期护理体系及其启示[J].城市问题,2012(1).
1 顾大男,柳玉芝.老年人照料需要与照料费用最新研究述评[J].西北人口,2008(1).
2 刘成.人口老龄化背景下上海老年人长期照护的模式选择[D].上海交通大学,2006.
3 赵怀娟.老年人长期照护服务供给——国内学者相关研究综述[J].福建江夏学院学报,2012(10)：62-67.
4 陈翔.城市老年人长期照护需求评估研究——以北京市安慧里社区为例[D]中央民族大学,2012.
5 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：315-319.
1 于泽浩.中国城市失能老人长期照料问题研究[D].中央民族大学,2009.
2 倪荣等.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研究,2010(7)：39-41
3 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理职业技术学院学报,2004(6)：35-37.
4 赵向红.城市失能老人长期照料问题的应对之策[J].贵州社会科学,2012(10)：130-132.
1 李丽等.重庆市老年人的长期照护[J]].商场现代化,2009 (11)：92-95.
2 于泽浩.城市失能老人家庭照料的困境及应对——以北京牛街为例[J].社会福利,2009(4)：31-32.
1 林艳等.为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-63.
2 陈比聃.老年人口长期照护体系的国际比较[J].厦门特区党校学报,2013(2)：P42-46.
3 张广利,马万万.我国老人长期照护的模式选择[J].华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012(3)：P33-38.
4 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：P5-9.
5 唐咏.高龄失能老人主要照顾者心理健康与长期照护体系的建立[J].学术论坛,2012(9)：P168-173.
1 黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)：P522-524.
1 黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)：P522-524.
2 朱富强.平等和自由：阿马蒂亚森的福利经济学思想评述[J].中共天津市委党校学报,2010(6)：P70-77.
1 韩央迪.从福利多元主义到福利治理：福利改革的路径演化[J].国外社会科学,2012(2)：P42-49.
2 Rose, Richard. "Common goals but different roles:the state's contribution to the welfare mix. " The welfare state East and West,5(1986).
3 Wintersberger, H. (1990). Shifts in the welfare mix (Vol.1). A. Evers(Ed.). Campus-Verlag.
4 彭华民,黄叶青.福利多元主义：福利提供从国家到多元部门的转型[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(6)：P40-47.
1 Brodsky Jenny Jack Habib. and ILana Mizrahi.2000. Long Term Care Laws in Five Developed Countries. Brook-dale Institute for Gerontology and Human development, Jerusalem.
1 家康.德国的长期照料服务体系[J].中国社会导刊,2005(1).
2 丁纯,瞿黔超.德国护理保险体制综述：历史成因、运作特点以及改革方案[J].德国研究,2008(3)：23卷.
3 何林广.陈滔.德国强制性长期护理保险概述与启示[J].软科学,2006(5)：P57.
1 王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报,2002(12)：P132.
1 陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004 (s1)：117121.
1 周长洪,潘金洪.中国政策生育水平与实际生育水平的测算[J].中国人口科学,2010(4)：P13-z3.
2 朱勤.2000～2010年中国生育水平推算[J].中国人口科学,2012(4)：P68-78.
3 李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5)：P75-84.
1 王金营、原新.分城乡人口预测中乡-城人口转移技术处理及人口转移预测[J].河北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2007(3)：P13-19.
1 陈友华,徐愫.中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2)：P34-39.
1 http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1026/14045819.html2015年我国部分失能和完全失能老年人将达4000万人
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-16.
3 潘金洪等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2012(4)：P3-7
4 同上
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319
1 Cantor.M. H. and Mark B.2000. Social Care of the Elderly:The Effects of Ethnicity, Class and Culture. New York. Springer.
2 熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)：P9.
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
2 张翼,李培林,陈光金.社会蓝皮书：2014年中国社会形势分析与预测[M].社会科学文献出版社,2013年版：P8.
3 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P12.
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319.
3 曾友燕等.上海某社区老年人家庭护理需求的调查分析[J].解放军护理杂志,2008 (2)：P31-33.
4 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LJC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P12.
1 http://politics.gmw.cn/2012-07/10/content_4521959.htm2011年度中国老龄事业发展统计公报发布
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
1 戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析—基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)：P8-93.
2 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 朱微微.郭岩.老年人长期护理需求及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国护理管理,2010(12)：P57-60.
1 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4)：P315-319.
2 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P16-23.
1 戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)：P85-93.
2 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理.2013(4)：P315-319.
3 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P21-22.
4 尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)：P49-56.
1 贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)：P48-49.
2 贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)：P48-49.
1 http://society.people.com.cn/2013/0619/c136657-21890540.html民政部发布2012年社会服务发展统计公报
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
3 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 http://www.shmzj.gov.cn/gb/shmzj/node8/node15/node58/node72/node99/u1ai29584.html2010年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11-14
2 孙树菡,葛英.我国社会机构养老发展探讨[J].社会保障制度,2004(11),P28-31.
3 钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)：P7-8.
1 张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[J].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集：P15-16.
2 姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1)：P22.
1 谭晓红,程晓明,吴军等.上海市长宁区人口老龄化和疾病谱转变对卫生服务的影响和对策研究[J].中国全科医学,2007(1)：P77-79.
2 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
4 陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004(s1)：P117-121.
5 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
1 吴蓓,徐勤.城市社区长期照料体系的现状与问题[J].人口研究,2007(3)：P61-70.
2 张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[C].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集：P15-16.
3 张盈华.老年长期照护的风险属性与政府职能定位：国际的经验[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(5)：P44.
4 钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)：P8-9.
1 赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013 (4)：P315-319.
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P36-37.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P11.
4 郑造桓.社会质量与社会发展[M].浙江大学出版社,2010年：P111.
5 倪荣,刘新功,朱晨曦.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研,2010(7)：P40.
1 陈友华.徐愫.甲国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2)：P34-39.
2 孟群,等.中国老年人口失能流行趋势的分析与建议[J].中国卫生统计,2012(1)：P6-9.
1 桂世勋.中国高龄老人长期护理问题的思考[J].中国人口科学,2004(增刊)：P111-176.
1 穆光宗.老年人口大国的照料之难[J].中国社会工作,2011(8)：P59.
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P11-12.
2 杨菊华.人口转变与老年贫困[M].中国人民大学出版社,2011 P54-55.
3 上海市民政局、上海市老龄工作委员会办公室、上海市统计局编《2012年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息》,见http://www.shanghaigss.org.cn/news_view.asp?newsid=9143
1 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)：P11-12：
2 武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(101)：Pll
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
2 http://www.0shanghaigss.org.cn/news view.asp?newsid=91432012年上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息
1 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究.2011(2)：P14.
2 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
3 中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)：P14.
4 王芳.公共服务动机对养老护理员工作态度的彩响研究[D].上海交通大学,2010.
1 裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)：P37.
2 陈卫民.积极应对人口老龄化的政策体系研究[C].人口发展战略与“十二五”规划研究报告.中国人口出版社.2010年版.
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)：P52-55.
1 吕新萍.院舍照顾还是社区照顾——中国养老模式的可能取向探索[J].人口与经济,2005(3)：P8-13.
1 林艳,马寅初人口科学论坛：为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系[J].人口与发展2009.4(15)：52-64
2 郭平,陈刚.2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查数据分析[M].北京：中国社会出版社,2009.
1 凯思斯：就业、利息和货币通论(中译本,高鸿业译)[M],商务印书馆,1999年版
1 王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报.2002(12)：P134.
1 张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新--以市场人口学为分析视角人口学刊[J],2010(3)： P50
[1]曹艳春,王建云.老年长期照护研究综述[J].社会保障研究,2013(3)
[2]陈比聃.老年人口长期照护体系的国际比较[J].厦门特区党校学报,2013(2)
[3]陈卫民.城市高龄老人的照护资源与照护供给分析[J].中国人口科学,2004(s1)
[4]陈卫民.积极应对人口老龄化的政策体系研究[C].人口发展战略与“十二五”规划研究报告[M].北京：中国人口出版社,2010年版.
[5]陈翔.城市老年人长期照护需求评估研究——以北京市安慧里社区为例[D].中央民族大学,2012年.
[6]陈友华,徐愫.中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景[J].人口学刊,2011(2).
[7]戴卫东.老年长期护理需求及其影响因素分析——基于苏皖两省调查的比较研究[J].人口研究,2011(4)
[8]党俊武.长期照护服务体系是应对未来失能老年人危机的根本出路[J].人口与发展,2009(4)
[9]丁纯,瞿黔超.德国护理保险体制综述：历史成因、运作特点以及改革方案[J].德国研究,2008(3).
[10]范灵璐,郑梓桢.不能自理老年人照顾方式调查与养老服务体系的建构[J].贵州社会科学,2008(7).
[11]顾大男,柳玉芝.老年人照料需要与照料费用最新研究述评[J].西北人口,2008(1).
[12]桂世勋.构建广义的老年人照料体系——以上海为例[J].人口与发展,2008(3).
[13]桂世勋.中国高龄老人长期护理问题的思考[J].中国人口科学,2004(增刊)
[14]郭平,陈刚.2006年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查数据分析[M].北京：中国社会出版社,2009年版.
[15]韩央迪.从福利多元主义到福利治理：福利改革的路径演化[J].国外社会科学,2012(2)
[16]何林广.陈滔.德国强制性长期护理保险概述与启示[J].软科学,2008(5)
[17]贺银凤,周英华.我国老龄照料服务体系面临的挑战[J].人口学刊,2009(4)
[18]侯立平.发达国家(地区)的老龄人口长期护理体系及其启示[J].城市问题,2012(1).
[19]黄淑玲.福利经济学述评[J].沈阳工程学院学报(社会科学版),2007(10)
[20]家康.德国的长期照料服务体系[J].中国社会导刊,2005(1).
[21]姜晶梅.我国老年人生活自理能力受损情况分析[J].人口学刊.1999(2)
[22]姜向群,刘妮娜.老年人长期照料模式选择的影响因素研究[J].人口学刊,2014(1).
[23]凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论(中译本,高鸿业译)[M].北京：商务印书馆,1999年版.
[24]李汉东,李流.中国2000年以来生育水平估计[J].中国人口科学,2012(5)
[25]李丽,等.重庆市老年人的长期照护[J].商场现代化,2009(11)
[26]林艳,等.为什么要在中国构建长期照护服务体系?[J].人口与发展,2009(4)
[27]刘成.人口老龄化背景下上海老年人长期照护的模式选择[D].上海交通大学,2006年.
[28]吕新萍.院舍照顾还是社区照顾——中国养老模式的可能取向探索[J].人口与经济,2005(3)
[29]孟群,等.中国老年人口失能流行趋势的分析与建议[J].中国卫生统计,2012(1).
[30]穆光宗.老年人口大国的照料之难[J].中国社会工作,2011(8)
[31]倪荣,刘新功,朱晨曦.城市失能老人长期照料现状及对策[J].卫生经济研,2010(7)
[32]潘金洪等.中国老年人口失能率及失能规模分析——基于第六次全国人口普查数据[J].南京人口管理干部学院学报,2012(4).
[33]裴晓梅.老年型城市长期照护服务的发展及其问题[J].上海城市管理,2004(6)
[34]彭华民,黄叶青.福利多元主义：福利提供从国家到多元部门的转型[J].南开学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(6)
[35]汤哲等.北京老龄化多维纵向调查报告[J].首都医学院学报,1995(2)
[36]王德文.居住及日常照料方式对老年人躯体机能转归的统计分析[J].统计研究,2008.
[37]王芳.公共服务动机对养老护理员工作态度的彩响研究[D].上海交通大学,2010年.
[38]王学义.健康老龄化：人口老龄化的对策[J].西南民族学院学报,2002(12)
[39]吴蓓,徐勤.城市社区长期照料体系的现状与问题[J].人口研究,2007(3)
[40]武学慧,唐幼纯,王维.上海市老年长期护理(LTC)需求实证分析[J].劳动保障世界,2010(10)
[41]孙树菡,葛英.我国社会机构养老发展探讨[J].社会保障制度,2004(11),
[42]唐咏.高龄失能老人主要照顾者心理健康与长期照护体系的建立[J].学术论坛,2012(9).
[43]谭晓红,程晓明,吴军等.上海市长宁区人口老龄化和疾病谱转变对卫生服务的影响和对策研究[J].中国全科医学,2007(1)
[44]熊波.中国城市长期失能老人照料模式研究——基于武汉和广州的调查[J].西北人口,2013(1)
[45]杨菊华.人口转变与老年贫困[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2011年版.
[46]尹德挺.国内外老年人日常生活自理能力研究进展[J].中国老年学杂志.2008(10).
[47]尹尚菁,杜鹏.老年人长期照护需求现状及趋势研究[J].人口学刊,2012(2)
[48]于戈,杨刚.加拿大的长期照护[J].社会福利,2009(5)
[49]于泽浩.城市失能老人家庭照料的困境及应对——以北京牛街为例[J].社会福利,2009(4)
[50]于泽浩.中国城市失能老人长期照料问题研究[D].中央民族大学,2009年.
[51]曾友燕等.上海某社区老年人家庭护理需求的调查分析[J].解放军护理杂志,2008(2)
[52]张广利,马万万.我国老人长期照护的模式选择[J].华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2012(3).
[53]张俊良,曾祥旭.市场化与协同化目标约束下的养老模式创新——以市场人口学为分析视角人口学刊[J],2010(3)
[54]张翼,李培林,陈光金.社会蓝皮书：2014年中国社会形势分析与预测[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2013年版.
[55]张盈华.老年长期照护的风险属性与政府职能定位：国际的经验[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2012(5)
[56]张盈华.中国老年长期照护面临的问题与制度建设[C].第九届社会保障国际论坛摘要集.
[57]赵怀娟.城市失能老人机构照护需要及需要满足研究——以南京市调查为例[J].中国卫生事业管理,2013(4).
[58]赵怀娟.老年人长期照护服务供给——国内学者相关研究综述[J].福建江夏学院学报,2012(10).
[59]赵向红.城市失能老人长期照料问题的应对之策[J].贵州社会科学,2012(10)
[60]郑造桓.社会质量与社会发展[M].杭州：浙江大学出版社,2010年版.
[61]中国老龄科研中心编著.中国城乡老年人口状况一次性抽样调查数据分析[M].北京：中国标准出版社,2003年版.
[62]中国老龄科学研究中心课题组.全国城乡失能老年人状况研究[J].残疾人研究,2011(2)
[63]钟仁耀.上海老年长期照护服务供需矛盾分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2011(5)
[64]周长洪,潘金洪.中国政策生育水平与实际生育水平的测算[J].中国人口科学,2010(4)
[65]朱富强.平等和自由：阿马蒂亚森的福利经济学思想评述[J].中共天津市委党校学报,2010(6).
[66]朱勤.2000-2010年中国生育水平推算[J].中国人口科学,2012(4)
[67]朱微微,郭岩.老年人长期护理需求及其影响因素的实证分析[J].中国护理管理,2010(12)
[68]Abel,E. K. (1986). Adult daughters and care for the elderly.Feminist Studies,479-497. Blomqvist,P.(2004). The choice revolution:privatization of Swedish welfare services in the 1990s. Social Policy & Administration,38(2),139-155.
[69]Brodsky Jenny Jack Habib.and ILana Mizrahi.2000.Long Term Care Laws in Five Developed Countries.Brook-dale Institute for Gerontology and Human development, J erusalem.
[70]Cantor,M. H. and Mark B.2000. Social Care of the Elderly:The Effects of Ethnicity Class and Culture. New York. Springer.
[71]Cantor, M. H.,& Brennan, M.(1993). Family and community support systems of older New Yorkers. Growing older in New York City in the 1990s:A study of changing lifestyles, quality of life, and quality of care,5,4-49.
[72]Cantor,Marjorie&Little,Virgina. Aging and Social Care[A].In:Binstock,Robert H.,Ethel Shanas(eds.).Hand of Aging and the Social Sciences.(2nd ed.)[C].New York:Von Nostrand Remhold Company,1985. Dahlberg, L. (2005). Interaction between voluntary and statutory social service provision in Sweden:a matter of welfare pluralism, substitution or complementarity? Social Policy&Adrninistration,39(7),740-763. Denton,M. (1997). The linkages between informal and formal care of the elderly.Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillissement,16(01),30～50.
[73]Dr. Robyn Stone, Gail Lee Cafferata and Judith Sangl.Caregivers of the FrailElderly:A National Profile, Medicine & Social Sciences The Gerontologist Volume 27,Issue 5Pp.616-626.
[74]Francesca, C., Ana, L. N., Jerome, M., & Frits, T. (2011).OECD Health Policy Studies Help Wanted? Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care:Providing and Paying for Long-Term Care.OECD Publishing.
[75]Johnson,N. (1987). The welfare state in transition:The theory and practice of welfare pluralism. Univ of Massachusetts Press.
[76]Katz,S.,Ford, A.B., Moskowitz, R.W., et al. Studies of illness in the aged the index of ADL, a standardized measure of biological and psychosocial function. Journal of the American Medical Association,1963,85:914-919
[77]Kemper, P. (2003). Long-term care research and policy. The Gerontologist,43(4),436-446.
[78]Litwak,E,(1985).Helping the elderly:The complementary roles of informal networks and formal systems. New York:Guilford Press.
[79Messeri,Peter,Merrill Silverstein, and Eugene Litwak.1993.Choosing Optimal Support Groups:Areview and Reformulation. Journal of Health and Social Behavior34:122-37
[80]Pandey, S. K. (2002). Assessing state efforts to meet baby boomers' long-term care needs: A case study in compensatory federalism. Journal of aging & social policy,14(3-4),161-179.
[81]Pfau-Effinger,B-(2005). Welfare state policies and the development of care arrangements.European societies,7(2),321-347.
[82]Picone,G.,&Wilson,R.M.(1998).Medicare home health agency utilization,1984-1994. Inquiry:a journal of medical care organization,provision and financing,36(3),291-303.
[83]Rose,Richard. "Common goals but different roles:the state's contribution to the welfare mix." The welfare state East and West,5(1986).
[84]Siguroard6ttir,S. H.,& Bravell,M. E. (2013). Older caregivers in Iceland:providing and receiving care.Nordic Social Work Research,3(1),4～19.
[85]Wintersberger,H. (1990).Shifts in the welfare mix(Vol.1).A.Evers(Ed.).Campus-Verlag.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |