基于流域梯级开发的水电工程项目后评价研究
|
摘要
摘要：流域梯级水电工程项目在流域发电、防洪、灌溉、供水、航运、旅游、养殖等方面产生重要的社会效益和综合效益。流域梯级水电开发过程投入资金多、建设规模大、时间跨度长、影响范围广,对整个项目周期的决策工作有严格的要求。因此,充分积累流域项目开发经验,不断提高项目开发的决策水平和管理能力,是新时期我国实现流域社会、经济、生态环境可持续发展的关键因素。项目后评价旨在总结工程开发过程的经验教训,是提高项目科学决策能力、增加工程开发经验的重要途径。但是,当前缺乏从流域开发的角度对水电工程群的建设工作进行后评价理论和方法研究。针对该问题,论文在对国内外相关研究进行综述的基础上,结合流域水电开发的现实特征,梳理了流域水电工程后评价的基本理论和作用机制,然后由点及线,首先从水电项目的建设过程、发展目标、社会和生态环境影响四个方面,研究了流域水电开发的基本组成单元——单项水电工程后评价的指标体系和评价方法；其次,从梯级电站整体的效益视角,阐述了流域水电开发的经济和开发时序后评价的理论框架和评价模型；最后,结合以上的研究成果,以沅水流域水电开发项目为对象进行后评价实证分析,验证相关理论的科学性和方法的有效性。论文研究工作如下。
(1)梳理流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制。提出系统控制论和可持续发展的项目评价理论是流域水电工程后评价的两个基本理论,前者把整个项目管理视为一个系统,项目后评价是项目管理系统中重要的控制系统。后者要求项目建设要有利于可持续发展的目标,充分考虑经济、社会、生态环境的影响,达到决策目标的最大综合效益；构建水电项目后评价机制设计的基本原则,分析了项目后评价的监督控制作用,剖析了适合我国流域梯级水电工程项目的后评价三级管理机构体系管理和运行机制,设计了适合流域梯级水电工程项目的反馈流程图,其目的是通过理论分析,使后评价的成果能顺利地反馈到决策、设计、建设和运营单位,为项目的决策及建设起到控制作用和借鉴意义。
(2)流域梯级水电项目单项后评价理论和方法。从流域单项水电工程的建设过程、整体目标以及对社会、自然环境的影响四个维度进行后评价研究,对于具有动态控制作用的建设过程后评价,结合实际工程建设过程后评价控制作用,探讨了单项水电工程具有动态控制作用后评价的内容和评价方法,并建立了后评价指标体系；对于目标可持续后评价,梳理了流域梯级水电项目可持续性的研究范围、内涵、定义以及特征,提出了流域梯级水电项目目标可持续后评价的概念以及基本内容,从而构建指标评价体系；对于和谐发展观的社会影响评价,分析了其基本内容,并构建了指标体系,另外详细分析了项目与社会的适应性以及移民安置后评价等内容；对环境影响后评价研究中,构建了流域梯级水电项目生态环境的后评价指标体系,建立了生态环境影响后评价的物元—层次分析耦合模型。
(3)流域梯级水电项目经济效益后评价理论和方法。从国民经济后评价和财务后评价两个方面,深入探究了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益内容、指标体系。针对流域梯级水电项目补偿效益的现实,将梯级补偿效益指标引入了总体经济后评价指标体系中,详细探讨了流域梯级水电项目补偿效益机理以及指标计算方法,并从三种分摊方式入手,深入剖析了流域梯级水电项目效益补偿分摊问题,给出三种分摊方式的计算方法；研究了基于DEA模型的流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价,构建了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价的“静态分析—综合评价”的理论框架,建立了评价指标体系,提出了流域梯级水电项目总体经济后评价DEA模型。
(4)流域梯级水电项目开发时序后评价理论和方法。回顾了世界流域开发的基本方式,针对我国“流域、梯级、滚动、综合”开发的方针,运用结构模型解析(ISM)技术,分析出了流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的关键因素,探讨了小型、大中型流域开发利用的管理模式。阐述了模糊优选模型建模的基本理论,提出了基于模糊优选模型进行流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的模型。
(5)沅水流域开发项目后评价实证分析。简述了沅水流域水电开发基本情况；运用层次分析法结合专家打分方式,对沅水流域梯级水电工程过程进行后评价；在定性分析沅水水电工程的可持续影响因素基础上,评价了该工程目标可持续性；全面分析了沅水流域梯级水电开发社会环境影响因素；评价了该工程在发电、航运以及防洪对受益区的影响情况,并分析了该工程移民安置的情况；运用物元—层次分析模糊模型进行了沅水流域水电工程环境影响后评价；以“静态分析—综合评价”的两阶段评价的方式,运用DEA模型评价了梯级水电开发的总体经济效益；运用模糊优选模型,计算出该工程理想开发时序,结合工程实际开发情况,进行沅水流域梯级水电开发时序后评价。全面总结沅水流域梯级水电工程开发的主要结论,提出了相应的政策建议。
论文通过对流域梯级水电项目后评价研究,探索了流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制,剖析了水电项目单项后评价的指标指标和评价方法,建立了流域梯级水电开发经济影响和开发时序后评价的基本理论和评价模型,实证评价了沅水流域开发项目。论文的研究工作对流域梯级水电项目后评价相关理论和应用研究起到了积极的推动作用。
Abstract:Hydro power project in power generation, flood control, irrigation,water supply, shipping, tourism,aquaculture and so on have important social and comprehensive benefits.Cascade hydropower development in investment, construction scale,long time span,wide scope,work in the entire project cycle decisions have strict requirements. Therefore, to gain fully basin project development experience,and to improve constantly the level of water conservancy construction of decision-making and management ability, is in the new period our country the key factors to realize the social,economic,ecological environment sustainable development in river basin.The project post-evaluation aims at summing up the experience of the project development process, to improve the project decision-making ability, increase the project development experience's important way. But the current lack of research on post-evaluation theory and method of hydropower engineering based on river basin development. Aiming at this problem,based on the related research at home and abroa, combined with the feature of reality of river basin development, combing the basic theory of river basin hydropower project post-evaluation and the mechanism of action,at the same time,by points and lines,first of all,on the base of hydropower project construction process,development goal, society and ecological environment influence four aspects,the basic composition unit of river basin hydropower development, individual hydropower project post-evaluation index system and evaluation method. Secondly, from the perspective of the overall benefit of cascade hydropower stations,this paper expounds the economic and development after the temporal evaluation of river basin hydropower development of theoretical framework and evaluation model.Finally, combining with the results of the above,taking YuanShui basin hydropower development projects for the object after the evaluation of the empirical analysis,verify the relevant theory of the scientific nature and effectiveness.Thesis research work is as follows.
(1)We summarize river basin hydropower development post-evaluation theory system and the mechanism of action.System cybernetics and put forward the sustainable development of project evaluation theory are two basic theories of river basin hydropower project post-evaluation,the whole project management as a system,the former after the project evaluation is the important project management systems and control systems.Request for project construction should be the goal of sustainable development, fully considering the influence of the economic, social and ecological environment, achieve the goal of decision maximum comprehensive benefit;The basic principles of building hydropower project post-evaluation mechanism design,analyzes the project post-evaluation supervisory control function,analyzed the suitable for cascade hydropower project post-evaluation in our country3D management organization system and operational mechanism,which is suitable for cascade hydropower project design flow chart of the feedback, its purpose is theoretical analysis,the evaluation results can be smoothly after feedback to the decision-making, design, construction and operation units,for the project decision-making and construction control effect and significance.
(2)Cascade hydropower the single project post-evaluation theory and methods.From the individual of the basin hydropower engineering construction process,the overall goal as well as to the society, natural environment, the evaluation on the four dimensions to examine the effects of to have dynamic control effect after the construction process of evaluation,combining with the actual construction process control effect after evaluation, discusses the individual hydropower project have dynamic control effect after evaluation content and evaluation method, and established the evaluation index system;Target for sustainable post-evaluation,combing the research scope of cascade hydropower project in sustainability, connotation,definition and characteristics,puts forward the concept of cascade hydropower project goals in the sustainable post-evaluation and basic content, to build the index evaluation system;Impact assessment for the harmonious development of society, analyses its basic contents,and builds the index system, and detailed analysis of the project and the social adaptability and resettlement evaluation content;After the environmental impact assessment study, cascade hydropower project in the ecological environment is constructed after the evaluation index system,establishing the ecological environment impact assessment matter-element-level analysis of coupled model.
(3)Cascade hydropower project in economic benefits post-evaluation theory and method.From the national economic evaluation and financial evaluation after two aspects,delves into the overall economic benefit of cascade hydropower project in content, index system.In view of the river basin of compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project, introduced the general economic compensation benefits of cascade indexes after the evaluation index system, discusses the mechanism and compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project in index calculation method, and from three allocation methods,in-depth analysis of the cascade hydropower project benefit compensation allocation problem,gives the calculation method of three share ways；Is studied based on the DEA model of cascade hydropower project in the overall economic benefits after evaluation,constructs the cascade hydroelectric project in the overall economic benefits after evaluation of the theory framework of "static analysis and comprehensive evaluation", established the evaluation index system, puts forward the cascade hydropower project economic evaluation after the DEA model as a whole.
(4) Cascade hydropower project development sequence in post-evaluation theory and method.Reviewed the basic mode of river basin development in the world, aiming at "valley, stair, rolling, comprehensive development" the principle of using the structural model analysis (ISM) technology, analysis of the cascade hydropower development in sequence after the evaluation of the key factors,discusses the development and utilization of the management mode of small and medium,large and medium-sized valley.This paper expounds the basic theory of fuzzy optimization model modeling, based on the fuzzy optimization model is put forward after cascade hydropower development evaluation model.
(5)Post-evaluation of the empirical analysis after YuanShui river basin development project.The article introduces the situation;YuanShui river basin hydropower development. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)combined with the expert scoring method,to post-evaluate YuanShui valley cascade hydropower project process;In qualitative analysis YuanShui hydropower project based on the factors affecting the sustainable evaluation of the project goal sustainability;Comprehensive analysis of YuanShui cascade hydropower development in the social environment factors;Evaluation of the engineering in power generation, navigation and flood control effect on yield zone, and analyzes the project resettlement; Using the fuzzy model of matter-elemen-level analysis for the YuanShui river basin hydropower project after the environmental impact assessment; By static analysis and comprehensive evaluation of two stage evaluation approach, using DEA model to evaluate the overall economic benefit of cascade hydropower development; Using fuzzy optimization model to calculate the ideal development timing, the project development situation,combination with the engineering practice of YuanShui cascade hydropower development in sequence post-evaluation. Comprehensive summary YuanShui the main conclusion of the development of cascade hydropower project puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
Paper based on cascade hydropower project post-evaluation study, explores the theoretical system of river basin hydropower development after evaluation and function mechanism,analyze the hydropower project after single indicator of evaluation index and evaluation method, set up a cascade hydropower development in economic impact and development after the temporal evaluation of basic theory and evaluation model,the empirical evaluation of the YuanShui river basin development project. Thesis research work of cascade hydropower project evaluation related theory and application research has played a positive role in promoting.
(1)梳理流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制。提出系统控制论和可持续发展的项目评价理论是流域水电工程后评价的两个基本理论,前者把整个项目管理视为一个系统,项目后评价是项目管理系统中重要的控制系统。后者要求项目建设要有利于可持续发展的目标,充分考虑经济、社会、生态环境的影响,达到决策目标的最大综合效益；构建水电项目后评价机制设计的基本原则,分析了项目后评价的监督控制作用,剖析了适合我国流域梯级水电工程项目的后评价三级管理机构体系管理和运行机制,设计了适合流域梯级水电工程项目的反馈流程图,其目的是通过理论分析,使后评价的成果能顺利地反馈到决策、设计、建设和运营单位,为项目的决策及建设起到控制作用和借鉴意义。
(2)流域梯级水电项目单项后评价理论和方法。从流域单项水电工程的建设过程、整体目标以及对社会、自然环境的影响四个维度进行后评价研究,对于具有动态控制作用的建设过程后评价,结合实际工程建设过程后评价控制作用,探讨了单项水电工程具有动态控制作用后评价的内容和评价方法,并建立了后评价指标体系；对于目标可持续后评价,梳理了流域梯级水电项目可持续性的研究范围、内涵、定义以及特征,提出了流域梯级水电项目目标可持续后评价的概念以及基本内容,从而构建指标评价体系；对于和谐发展观的社会影响评价,分析了其基本内容,并构建了指标体系,另外详细分析了项目与社会的适应性以及移民安置后评价等内容；对环境影响后评价研究中,构建了流域梯级水电项目生态环境的后评价指标体系,建立了生态环境影响后评价的物元—层次分析耦合模型。
(3)流域梯级水电项目经济效益后评价理论和方法。从国民经济后评价和财务后评价两个方面,深入探究了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益内容、指标体系。针对流域梯级水电项目补偿效益的现实,将梯级补偿效益指标引入了总体经济后评价指标体系中,详细探讨了流域梯级水电项目补偿效益机理以及指标计算方法,并从三种分摊方式入手,深入剖析了流域梯级水电项目效益补偿分摊问题,给出三种分摊方式的计算方法；研究了基于DEA模型的流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价,构建了流域梯级水电项目总体经济效益后评价的“静态分析—综合评价”的理论框架,建立了评价指标体系,提出了流域梯级水电项目总体经济后评价DEA模型。
(4)流域梯级水电项目开发时序后评价理论和方法。回顾了世界流域开发的基本方式,针对我国“流域、梯级、滚动、综合”开发的方针,运用结构模型解析(ISM)技术,分析出了流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的关键因素,探讨了小型、大中型流域开发利用的管理模式。阐述了模糊优选模型建模的基本理论,提出了基于模糊优选模型进行流域梯级水电开发时序后评价的模型。
(5)沅水流域开发项目后评价实证分析。简述了沅水流域水电开发基本情况；运用层次分析法结合专家打分方式,对沅水流域梯级水电工程过程进行后评价；在定性分析沅水水电工程的可持续影响因素基础上,评价了该工程目标可持续性；全面分析了沅水流域梯级水电开发社会环境影响因素；评价了该工程在发电、航运以及防洪对受益区的影响情况,并分析了该工程移民安置的情况；运用物元—层次分析模糊模型进行了沅水流域水电工程环境影响后评价；以“静态分析—综合评价”的两阶段评价的方式,运用DEA模型评价了梯级水电开发的总体经济效益；运用模糊优选模型,计算出该工程理想开发时序,结合工程实际开发情况,进行沅水流域梯级水电开发时序后评价。全面总结沅水流域梯级水电工程开发的主要结论,提出了相应的政策建议。
论文通过对流域梯级水电项目后评价研究,探索了流域水电开发后评价的理论体系和作用机制,剖析了水电项目单项后评价的指标指标和评价方法,建立了流域梯级水电开发经济影响和开发时序后评价的基本理论和评价模型,实证评价了沅水流域开发项目。论文的研究工作对流域梯级水电项目后评价相关理论和应用研究起到了积极的推动作用。
Abstract:Hydro power project in power generation, flood control, irrigation,water supply, shipping, tourism,aquaculture and so on have important social and comprehensive benefits.Cascade hydropower development in investment, construction scale,long time span,wide scope,work in the entire project cycle decisions have strict requirements. Therefore, to gain fully basin project development experience,and to improve constantly the level of water conservancy construction of decision-making and management ability, is in the new period our country the key factors to realize the social,economic,ecological environment sustainable development in river basin.The project post-evaluation aims at summing up the experience of the project development process, to improve the project decision-making ability, increase the project development experience's important way. But the current lack of research on post-evaluation theory and method of hydropower engineering based on river basin development. Aiming at this problem,based on the related research at home and abroa, combined with the feature of reality of river basin development, combing the basic theory of river basin hydropower project post-evaluation and the mechanism of action,at the same time,by points and lines,first of all,on the base of hydropower project construction process,development goal, society and ecological environment influence four aspects,the basic composition unit of river basin hydropower development, individual hydropower project post-evaluation index system and evaluation method. Secondly, from the perspective of the overall benefit of cascade hydropower stations,this paper expounds the economic and development after the temporal evaluation of river basin hydropower development of theoretical framework and evaluation model.Finally, combining with the results of the above,taking YuanShui basin hydropower development projects for the object after the evaluation of the empirical analysis,verify the relevant theory of the scientific nature and effectiveness.Thesis research work is as follows.
(1)We summarize river basin hydropower development post-evaluation theory system and the mechanism of action.System cybernetics and put forward the sustainable development of project evaluation theory are two basic theories of river basin hydropower project post-evaluation,the whole project management as a system,the former after the project evaluation is the important project management systems and control systems.Request for project construction should be the goal of sustainable development, fully considering the influence of the economic, social and ecological environment, achieve the goal of decision maximum comprehensive benefit;The basic principles of building hydropower project post-evaluation mechanism design,analyzes the project post-evaluation supervisory control function,analyzed the suitable for cascade hydropower project post-evaluation in our country3D management organization system and operational mechanism,which is suitable for cascade hydropower project design flow chart of the feedback, its purpose is theoretical analysis,the evaluation results can be smoothly after feedback to the decision-making, design, construction and operation units,for the project decision-making and construction control effect and significance.
(2)Cascade hydropower the single project post-evaluation theory and methods.From the individual of the basin hydropower engineering construction process,the overall goal as well as to the society, natural environment, the evaluation on the four dimensions to examine the effects of to have dynamic control effect after the construction process of evaluation,combining with the actual construction process control effect after evaluation, discusses the individual hydropower project have dynamic control effect after evaluation content and evaluation method, and established the evaluation index system;Target for sustainable post-evaluation,combing the research scope of cascade hydropower project in sustainability, connotation,definition and characteristics,puts forward the concept of cascade hydropower project goals in the sustainable post-evaluation and basic content, to build the index evaluation system;Impact assessment for the harmonious development of society, analyses its basic contents,and builds the index system, and detailed analysis of the project and the social adaptability and resettlement evaluation content;After the environmental impact assessment study, cascade hydropower project in the ecological environment is constructed after the evaluation index system,establishing the ecological environment impact assessment matter-element-level analysis of coupled model.
(3)Cascade hydropower project in economic benefits post-evaluation theory and method.From the national economic evaluation and financial evaluation after two aspects,delves into the overall economic benefit of cascade hydropower project in content, index system.In view of the river basin of compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project, introduced the general economic compensation benefits of cascade indexes after the evaluation index system, discusses the mechanism and compensation benefits of cascade hydropower project in index calculation method, and from three allocation methods,in-depth analysis of the cascade hydropower project benefit compensation allocation problem,gives the calculation method of three share ways；Is studied based on the DEA model of cascade hydropower project in the overall economic benefits after evaluation,constructs the cascade hydroelectric project in the overall economic benefits after evaluation of the theory framework of "static analysis and comprehensive evaluation", established the evaluation index system, puts forward the cascade hydropower project economic evaluation after the DEA model as a whole.
(4) Cascade hydropower project development sequence in post-evaluation theory and method.Reviewed the basic mode of river basin development in the world, aiming at "valley, stair, rolling, comprehensive development" the principle of using the structural model analysis (ISM) technology, analysis of the cascade hydropower development in sequence after the evaluation of the key factors,discusses the development and utilization of the management mode of small and medium,large and medium-sized valley.This paper expounds the basic theory of fuzzy optimization model modeling, based on the fuzzy optimization model is put forward after cascade hydropower development evaluation model.
(5)Post-evaluation of the empirical analysis after YuanShui river basin development project.The article introduces the situation;YuanShui river basin hydropower development. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)combined with the expert scoring method,to post-evaluate YuanShui valley cascade hydropower project process;In qualitative analysis YuanShui hydropower project based on the factors affecting the sustainable evaluation of the project goal sustainability;Comprehensive analysis of YuanShui cascade hydropower development in the social environment factors;Evaluation of the engineering in power generation, navigation and flood control effect on yield zone, and analyzes the project resettlement; Using the fuzzy model of matter-elemen-level analysis for the YuanShui river basin hydropower project after the environmental impact assessment; By static analysis and comprehensive evaluation of two stage evaluation approach, using DEA model to evaluate the overall economic benefit of cascade hydropower development; Using fuzzy optimization model to calculate the ideal development timing, the project development situation,combination with the engineering practice of YuanShui cascade hydropower development in sequence post-evaluation. Comprehensive summary YuanShui the main conclusion of the development of cascade hydropower project puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
Paper based on cascade hydropower project post-evaluation study, explores the theoretical system of river basin hydropower development after evaluation and function mechanism,analyze the hydropower project after single indicator of evaluation index and evaluation method, set up a cascade hydropower development in economic impact and development after the temporal evaluation of basic theory and evaluation model,the empirical evaluation of the YuanShui river basin development project. Thesis research work of cascade hydropower project evaluation related theory and application research has played a positive role in promoting.
引文
[1].黄德春.投资项目后评价理论,方法及应用研究[D].南京：河海大学图书馆,2003.
[2].陈岩.基于可持续发展观的流域梯级水电项目后评价研究[D].南京：河海大学,2007.
[3]. Duncan W R.A guide to the project management body of knowledge[J].1996.
[4].张飞涟.铁路建设项目后评价理论与方法的研究[D][D].中南大学,2004.
[5].钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集,2005.
[6].于景元.钱学森关于开放的复杂巨系统的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1992,12(5)：8-12.
[7].童文胜,杨钦.对项目评估方法和标准的若干思考[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,7：013.
[8].王永刚.水利建设项目国民经济后评价中若干问题的探讨[J].海河水利,2005.3：027.
[9].周纯,吴仁海.环境影响的经济评价方法与应用[J].云南环境科学,2005,24(1)：52-53.
[10]. 张淙皎,张世宝,冯田华.桃林口水库工程经济后评价防洪效益计算[J].中国农村水利水电,2002,8：6-7.
[11]. 张惠芬.建设项目环境影响经济评价探讨[J].环境保护,2005,(2)：63-65.
[12]. Freudenburg W R. Social impact assessmen[J]. Annual review of sociology, 1986:451-478.
[13]. Barrow C J. Environmental and social impact assessment:an introduction[M]. Arnold, Hodder Headline, PLC,1997.
[14]. 朱东恺.项目可持续发展评价初探[J].中国人口资源与环境,2003,(2)：40-42.
[15]. 朱东恺.投资项目社会评价探析[J].中国工程咨询,2004,(7)：14-16.
[16]. 胡永铨.基于和谐发展观的项目社会评价体系研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006,(1)：131-133.
[17]. 朱振华,石晓波,龚文乾.建设项目可持续发展评价述评[J].工程管理学报,2010,24(2)：19-23.
[18]. 袁松龄,朱东恺.我国水利水电工程移民问题分析与思考①[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(3)：5-8.
[19]. 朱东恺,施国庆,潘玉巧.我国水利水电工程移民利益补偿机制改革思 路及建议[J].中国软科学,2006,(1)：33-39.
[20]. 钟水映.关于重大工程编制移民安置规划并建立监测制度的思考[J].科技进步与对策,2005,(11)：29-31.
[21]. 黄一夫.可持续发展与投资项目评价[J].系统工程,1999,17(3)：40-42.
[22]. 黄德春,许长新.投资项目可持续发展后评价研究[J].软科学,2004,18(4)：13-17.
[23]. 高喜珍,陈通.基于可持续发展的公共投资项目评价指标体系构建[J].统计与决策,2008,(1)：67-69.
[24]. 高晓蔚,范贻昌.建设项目环境效益评价体系的总体思路与方法[J].中国软科学,1999,(8)：102-104.
[25]. 柴西龙,孔令辉,海热提,等.建设项目环境影响评价公众参与模式研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2005,(6)：122-125.
[26]. 李丽珍,马兰,刘年丰.环境影响评价中的公众参与调查结果加权量化法初探[J].云南环境科学,2005,24(4)：55-57.
[27]. 水资源与国民经济协调发展研究：理论,模型,实践[M].河海大学出版社,1996.
[28]. 余敬,易顺林.自然资源可持续发展模糊综合评价模型[J].技术经济与管理研究,2002,(4)：48-49.
[29]. 邓志国,綦振平.重大建设项目可持续性评价研究[J].山东工商学院学报,2004,(5)：78-81.
[30]. 邱化蛟,常欣,程序,等.农业可持续性评价指标体系的现状分析与构建[J].中国农业科学,2005,38(4)：736-745.
[31]. Saaty T L. Analytic hierarchy process[J]. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, 2005.
[32]. Saaty T L. What is the analytic hierarchy process?[M]. Springer Berlin Heidelberg,1988.
[33]. Saaty T L. How to make a decision:the analytic hierarchy process[J]. European journal of operational research,1990,48(1):9-26.
[34]. Zahedi F. The analytic hierarchy process-a survey of the method and its applications[J], interfaces,1986,16(4):96-108.
[35]. Saaty T L. How to make a decision:the analytic hierarchy process[J]. Interfaces,1994,24(6):19-43.
[36]. 王莲芬,许树柏,层次分析.层次分析法引论[M].中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[37]. 常建娥,蒋太立.层次分析法确定权重的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2007,29(1)：153-156.
[38]. 陈鹏,张合兵,张小虎,黄晓东,物元分析模型在土地可持续利用评价中的应用[J].经济研究导刊,,2013.(16)：260-262.
[39]. 刘娜,刘胜,邢青松,贾建国,王家天,面向大型化工项目建设的风险评价研究[J].机械,2011,(11)：33-42.
[40]. 马世骁,孙彦,许萍,杜晓梅,基于物元分析模型的工程项目风险评价[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(2)：5-8.
[41]. 张文泉,张世英,江立勤.基干熵的决策评价模型及应用[J].系统工程学报,1995,10(3)：69-74.
[42]. 张仁旧,章劲秋,童利忠.水利工程项目后评价研究[J].江苏水利,2004,(9)：7-11.
[43]. 曲炜.水利工程项目后评价理论探讨[D].南京：河海大学,2001.
[44]. 钱敏.淮河中游河道防洪实践初探[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[45]. 杨永东.水电工程项目后评价方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2003.
[46]. 陈绍军,施国庆.水利水电工程项目后评价理论与方法研究[J].四川水力发电,1996,15(3)：15-19.
[47]. 季云.水利建设项目后评价研究进展[J].水利水电科技进展,2003,23(3)：57-59.
[48]. 吴松娟.基于DEA研究的水利建设项目后评价研究[D].南京：河海大学,2004.
[49]. 曾建生.水资源工程移民后评价指标体系研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[50]. 刘胜祥,刘家武,贺占魁,等.水利水电建设工程生态环境质量定量评价体系研究[J].环境科学与技术,2002,25(5)：24-25.
[51]. 邓丽,黄会明,周世峰.节水灌溉项目建设过程后评价的方法和评价指标[J].节水灌溉,2004,(5)：33-35.
[52]. 周娴.水利工程移民安置效果后评价内容和方法探讨[J].水利经济,2004,22(2)：51-53.
[53]. 朱红英,李晓英,袁建国.后评价综述与水利规划后评价理论体系初探[J].水利科技与经济,2004,10(4)：196-198.
[54]. 周结斌.淮河流域行蓄洪区规划后评价研究[D].河海大学,2005.
[55]. 柯浚,陈志华.移民安置效果评价的DEA模型[J].水利经济,2002,20(5)：57-59.
[56]. 周娴.水利工程移民安置效果后评价内容和方法探讨[J].水利经济,2004,22(2)：51-53.
[57]. Coelli T J, Prasada Rao D S, O'Donnell C J, et al. Data Envelopment Analysis[J]. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis,2005: 161-181.
[58]. Banker R D, Charnes A, Cooper W W. Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis [J]. Management science, 1984,30(9):1078-1092.
[59]. Mahlberg B, Obersteiner M. Remeasuring the HDI by data envelopement analysis[J]. Available at SSRN 1999372,2001.
[60]. Data envelopment analysis:theory, methodology and applications[M]. Springer,1994.
[61]. Cooper W W, Seiford L M, Tone K. Data envelopment analysis:a comprehensive text with models, applications, references and DEA-solver software[M]. Springer,2007.
[62]. Charnes A, Cooper W W, Rhodes E. Evaluating program and managerial efficiency:an application of data envelopment analysis to program follow through[J]. Management Science,1981,27(6):668-697.
[63]. Wober K W. Data envelopment analysis[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing,2007,21(4):91-108.
[64]. Molinero C M, Woracker D. Data Envelopment Analysis[J]. Or Insight,1996, 9(4):22-28.
[65]. Binbin Tang,Baochen liu, Zhihua Deng. A Study on Economic Post Project Evaluation of Cascade Hydropower Stations based on Data Envelopment Analysis[M]. Springer, Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols,438-439 (2013): 839-844.
[66]. Binbin Tang,Baochen liu, Zhihua Deng.Evaluation research about the post environmental impact assessment of cascade hydropower engineering which based on Matter-element and Analytic-hierarchy coupling model. [M]. Springer, Applied Mechanics and Materials Vol,437 (2013):1038-1045.
[67]. 徐定辉,王鹤鸣,周丽莉.水电流域滚动开发模式探析[J].云南水力发电,2004,(5)：15-18.
[68]. 赵麦换.水库补偿效益理论与实践-以黄河干流水库为例[D].西安：西安理工大学,2004.
[69]. 杨文娟.黄河干流梯级水库电站补偿调节方案评价研究[D].西安：西安理工大学,2007.
[70]. 张勇传,李福生,熊斯毅,等.水电站水库群优化调度方法的研究[J].水力发电,1981,(11)：48-52.
[71]. 谭维炎,刘健民,黄守信,等.应用随机动态规划进行水电站水库的最优调度[J].水利学报,1982,(7)：3-9.
[72]. 鲁子林.水库群调度网络分析法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1983,(4)：38-51.
[73]. 张珏,孙维红,斯煊昀.水利水电项目后评价的经济评价研究[J].中国水能及电气化,2010,72(12)：41-46.
[74]. 吴泽宁,索丽生,王海政.水利水电项目经济风险的模糊分析方法[J].河海大学学报：自然科学版,2003,31(3)：276-280.
[75]. 张淙皎,张世宝,冯田华.桃林口水库工程经济后评价防洪效益计算[J].中国农村水利水电,2002,(8)：6-7.
[76]. 甄达福.模糊层次分析法在水电工程中的应用[J].湖南水利,1997,(3)：24-27.
[77]. 董子敖,李瑛,阎建生.串并混联水电站优化调度与补偿调节多目标多层次模型[J].水力发电学报,1989,(2)：8-22.
[78]. 赵雅坤.钦江流域水库多目标调控研究[D].广西大学,2012.
[79]. 高仕春,陶自成,阳蓉.熵权法在梯级电站效益补偿分摊中的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4)：120-122.
[80]. 伍永刚,王献奇,裴哲义.电力市场中水电厂间补偿效益的分摊方法[J].水力发电,2006,32(10)：17-20.
[81]. 夏忠,黄强,赵雪花.黄河上游梯级水电站滚动开发顺序决策分析[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(6)：1-5.
[82]. 鲁子林,李春尧,吴涌虎.水电站开发顺序优化模型[J].河海大学学报：自然科学版,1989,(4)：82-90.
[83]. 罗志辉,陈惠源.梯级水电站开发顺序多目标优化方法的研究——复合排序模型与非劣序生成技术[J].水利学报,1998,(1)：29-32.
[84]. 傅明辉,汪定伟,孟波.水电站群开发顺序和装机容量设计的动态规划模型[J].水电能源科学,1989,7(4)：336-343.
[85]. 夏忠,黄强,赵雪花.水利经济学——黄河上游梯级水电站滚动开发顺序决策分析[J].中国学术期刊文摘,2006,12(10)：201-201.
[86]. 金庆祥.澜沧江中游梯级电站开发顺序研究[J].云南水力发电,1989,(2)： 24-27.
[87]. 张希载.对大朝山,小湾水电站开发顺序的意见[J].云南水力发电,1989,(2)：20-23.
[88]. 李正最,吴雅琴.用灰色联度分析方法优选中小型梯级水电站群开发顺序[J].珠江水利水电信息,1993,(4)：31-35.
[89]. 杨侃,张和平,丰景春.应用于水利工程建设优化开发顺序的状态滑动排序模型[J].河海大学学报,1996,(3)：117-119.
[90]. 黄永绥.溪洛渡,向家坝水电站开发顺序的探讨[J].四川水力发电,1994,(3)：82-90.
[91]. 邱锡成,黄涛珍,赵敏,等.红水河梯级电站开发顺序优化[J].水利经济,1989,(1)：20-28.
[92]. 邱锡成,王宗源,葛久研.红水河梯级开发顺序组合的补偿调节和优化调节数学模型研究[J].水利水电技术,1987,(4)：14-19.
[93]. 罗志辉,陈惠源,冯尚友.电站群非劣开发顺序多目标决策评价方法[J].水电能源科学,1999,(2)：24-26
[94]. 马长富,王中强.河流梯级开发顺序的决策分析方法探讨[J].陕西水力发电,1995,11(4)：40-45.
[95]. 欧俊峰.白水江流域后续水电站开发顺序的选择[J].四川水力发电,2007,26(2)：12-13.
[96]. 王世定.水电站开发顺序的模糊优选研究[J].能源季刊,1989,(2)：8-14.
[97]. 韩宇平,阮本清,解建仓.多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用[J].资源科学,2003,25(4)：37-42.
[98]. 齐济,李岩,李德峰.基于改进AHP法定权的模糊优选模型在地下水质评价中的应用[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2002,23(2)：4-6.
[99]. 陈守煜,赵瑛琪.系统层次分析模糊优选模型[J].水利学报,1988,10(1)：3-12.
[100]. 陈守煜,赵瑛琪.模糊优选理论与模型[J].模糊系统与数学,1990,4(2)：87-91.
[101]. 胡志根,肖焕雄.水电工程施工布置方案多目标模糊优选决策研究[J].水电站设计,1997,13(2)：19-23.
[102]. 陈守煜.系统模糊优选理论解水电站最优排序[J].大连理工大学学报,1989,29(1)：99-108.
[103]. 闫毅志,李玲.模糊优选模型在流域梯级水电开发中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(10)：142-145.
[104]. 王世定.水电站开发顺序的模糊优选研究[J].能源季刊,1989,(2)：8-14.
[105]. 石忠伟,纪利,王兵.基于模糊理论与改进AHP法的水资源开发方式优选模型[J].2009.(S1)：1-7.
[106]. 唐健,黄健元.模糊优选模型及其应用[J].大学数学,2005,21(6)：71-76.
[107]. 王本德,周惠成.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选[J].水利学报,1994,(2)：31-39.
[108]. 崔振才,田文苓,郭林华.水资源可持续利用的模糊优选模型[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2000,(S1)：98-100.
[109]. 张哲,王会利,石磊,等.桥梁方案多层多目标模糊优选模型及其应用[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(9)：1567-1571.
[110]. 张冰,张卫兵.基于模糊优选模型的水资源配置方案评价[J].节水灌溉,2009(6)：29-31.
[111]. 李月.工程项目后评价概述[J].建筑与环境,2012,(6)：105-106.
[112]. 宋永发,李荣星,王延龙.建设项目评价理论方法研究[J].基建优化,2007,28(02)：18-20.
[113]. 史震古.关于水利水电工程建设的后评价[1].江西水利科技,1993,(1)：017.
[114]. 格日乐,程扬,李和平.国内水利项目后评价理论探讨[J].内蒙古环境科学,2009,21(5)：37-40.
[115]. 吴恒安.后评价与水利项目后评价[J].北京水利,1998,(1)：12-16.
[116]. 刘鹏,谭洪林.浅谈项目后评价的实践应用及其重要意义[J].东方企业文化,2013,(4)：191.
[117]. 姜天文,刘明辉,周占发,等.浅谈项目后评价在国内工程建设领域中的应用[J].化工科技,2012,20(3)：75-78.
[118]. 杨永东.水电工程项目后评价方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2003.
[119]. 徐定辉,王鹤鸣,周丽莉.水电流域滚动开发模式探析[J].云南水力发电,2004,(5)：15-18.
[120]. 陈岩.谈水利建设项目后评价的监督控制作用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007,5(2)：91-93.
[121]. 吴明龙.项目后评价方法在水利工程项目中的运用[J].江苏水利,2007(4)：1 0.
[122]. 张海军,施颖,李睿.项目后评价理论及方法探讨[J].商业时代,2012,(28)：105-106.
[123]. 张礼安,李华启,李刚,等.建设项目后评价方法和程序[J].国际石油经 济,2005,13(11)：27-28.
[124]. 柯礼聃.建立新型的黄河流域管理体制[J].中国水利,2001,(4)：91-93.
[125]. 张虎成,魏浪,张习传.水利水电建设项目后评价研究现状与发展趋势[J].贵州水力发电,2007,21(5)：12-15.
[126]. 田艳萍.水利工程项目后评价的目的,意义和内容[J].水利科技与经济,2007,13(9)：628-628.
[127]. 金琳.国内外工程项目后评价的比较分析[D].西北农林科技大学,2010.
[128]. 李友辉,孔琼菊,马秀峰等.流域梯级开发环境影响评价指标体系研究[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(5)：101-105.
[129]. 陈新军,田里,张望林.基于“生态系统控制论”原理的小流域综合治理对策研究[J].中国水土保持,2010,(5)：58-60.
[130]. Walter M S G, Spitta I T. Approaches to the ex-ante evaluation of investments into information systems[J]. Wirtschaftsinformatik,2004,46(3): 171-180.
[131]. YIN H, SUN X, FU Y. Research on Past Evaluation of Technological Outcome's Transformation Project Based on Entropy Method [J]. Science of Science and Management of S.& T,2007, (10):125-129.
[132]. Chang C, Zhao J, Zhu N. Energy saving effect prediction and post evaluation of air-conditioning system in public buildings[J]. Energy and Buildings,2011, 43(11):3243-3249.
[133]. Downs P W, Kondolf G M. Post-project appraisals in adaptive management of river channel restoration[J]. Environmental Management,2002,29(4): 477-496.
[134]. OlssonN O E, Krane H P, Rolstadas A, et al. Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects[J]. Transport Policy,2010,17(4): 251-258.
[135]. Sanko N, Morikawa T, Nagamatsu Y. Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts:Implications from the case of a Japanese railway[J]. Transport Policy,2013, (27):209-218.
[136].黄晓荣,张新海,杨立彬,等.黄河流域(片)水资源综合规划的关键技术[J].人民黄河,2007,29(4)：32-34.
[137]. 黎智良.中小型水利工程项目后评价[J].水利技术监督,2009,17(2)：31-33.
[2].陈岩.基于可持续发展观的流域梯级水电项目后评价研究[D].南京：河海大学,2007.
[3]. Duncan W R.A guide to the project management body of knowledge[J].1996.
[4].张飞涟.铁路建设项目后评价理论与方法的研究[D][D].中南大学,2004.
[5].钱学森,于景元,戴汝为.一个科学新领域——开放的复杂巨系统及其方法论[J].科学决策与系统工程——中国系统工程学会第六次年会论文集,2005.
[6].于景元.钱学森关于开放的复杂巨系统的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1992,12(5)：8-12.
[7].童文胜,杨钦.对项目评估方法和标准的若干思考[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,7：013.
[8].王永刚.水利建设项目国民经济后评价中若干问题的探讨[J].海河水利,2005.3：027.
[9].周纯,吴仁海.环境影响的经济评价方法与应用[J].云南环境科学,2005,24(1)：52-53.
[10]. 张淙皎,张世宝,冯田华.桃林口水库工程经济后评价防洪效益计算[J].中国农村水利水电,2002,8：6-7.
[11]. 张惠芬.建设项目环境影响经济评价探讨[J].环境保护,2005,(2)：63-65.
[12]. Freudenburg W R. Social impact assessmen[J]. Annual review of sociology, 1986:451-478.
[13]. Barrow C J. Environmental and social impact assessment:an introduction[M]. Arnold, Hodder Headline, PLC,1997.
[14]. 朱东恺.项目可持续发展评价初探[J].中国人口资源与环境,2003,(2)：40-42.
[15]. 朱东恺.投资项目社会评价探析[J].中国工程咨询,2004,(7)：14-16.
[16]. 胡永铨.基于和谐发展观的项目社会评价体系研究[J].科技进步与对策,2006,(1)：131-133.
[17]. 朱振华,石晓波,龚文乾.建设项目可持续发展评价述评[J].工程管理学报,2010,24(2)：19-23.
[18]. 袁松龄,朱东恺.我国水利水电工程移民问题分析与思考①[J].水利水电科技进展,2005,25(3)：5-8.
[19]. 朱东恺,施国庆,潘玉巧.我国水利水电工程移民利益补偿机制改革思 路及建议[J].中国软科学,2006,(1)：33-39.
[20]. 钟水映.关于重大工程编制移民安置规划并建立监测制度的思考[J].科技进步与对策,2005,(11)：29-31.
[21]. 黄一夫.可持续发展与投资项目评价[J].系统工程,1999,17(3)：40-42.
[22]. 黄德春,许长新.投资项目可持续发展后评价研究[J].软科学,2004,18(4)：13-17.
[23]. 高喜珍,陈通.基于可持续发展的公共投资项目评价指标体系构建[J].统计与决策,2008,(1)：67-69.
[24]. 高晓蔚,范贻昌.建设项目环境效益评价体系的总体思路与方法[J].中国软科学,1999,(8)：102-104.
[25]. 柴西龙,孔令辉,海热提,等.建设项目环境影响评价公众参与模式研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2005,(6)：122-125.
[26]. 李丽珍,马兰,刘年丰.环境影响评价中的公众参与调查结果加权量化法初探[J].云南环境科学,2005,24(4)：55-57.
[27]. 水资源与国民经济协调发展研究：理论,模型,实践[M].河海大学出版社,1996.
[28]. 余敬,易顺林.自然资源可持续发展模糊综合评价模型[J].技术经济与管理研究,2002,(4)：48-49.
[29]. 邓志国,綦振平.重大建设项目可持续性评价研究[J].山东工商学院学报,2004,(5)：78-81.
[30]. 邱化蛟,常欣,程序,等.农业可持续性评价指标体系的现状分析与构建[J].中国农业科学,2005,38(4)：736-745.
[31]. Saaty T L. Analytic hierarchy process[J]. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, 2005.
[32]. Saaty T L. What is the analytic hierarchy process?[M]. Springer Berlin Heidelberg,1988.
[33]. Saaty T L. How to make a decision:the analytic hierarchy process[J]. European journal of operational research,1990,48(1):9-26.
[34]. Zahedi F. The analytic hierarchy process-a survey of the method and its applications[J], interfaces,1986,16(4):96-108.
[35]. Saaty T L. How to make a decision:the analytic hierarchy process[J]. Interfaces,1994,24(6):19-43.
[36]. 王莲芬,许树柏,层次分析.层次分析法引论[M].中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[37]. 常建娥,蒋太立.层次分析法确定权重的研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2007,29(1)：153-156.
[38]. 陈鹏,张合兵,张小虎,黄晓东,物元分析模型在土地可持续利用评价中的应用[J].经济研究导刊,,2013.(16)：260-262.
[39]. 刘娜,刘胜,邢青松,贾建国,王家天,面向大型化工项目建设的风险评价研究[J].机械,2011,(11)：33-42.
[40]. 马世骁,孙彦,许萍,杜晓梅,基于物元分析模型的工程项目风险评价[J].沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(2)：5-8.
[41]. 张文泉,张世英,江立勤.基干熵的决策评价模型及应用[J].系统工程学报,1995,10(3)：69-74.
[42]. 张仁旧,章劲秋,童利忠.水利工程项目后评价研究[J].江苏水利,2004,(9)：7-11.
[43]. 曲炜.水利工程项目后评价理论探讨[D].南京：河海大学,2001.
[44]. 钱敏.淮河中游河道防洪实践初探[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[45]. 杨永东.水电工程项目后评价方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2003.
[46]. 陈绍军,施国庆.水利水电工程项目后评价理论与方法研究[J].四川水力发电,1996,15(3)：15-19.
[47]. 季云.水利建设项目后评价研究进展[J].水利水电科技进展,2003,23(3)：57-59.
[48]. 吴松娟.基于DEA研究的水利建设项目后评价研究[D].南京：河海大学,2004.
[49]. 曾建生.水资源工程移民后评价指标体系研究[D].南京：河海大学,2003.
[50]. 刘胜祥,刘家武,贺占魁,等.水利水电建设工程生态环境质量定量评价体系研究[J].环境科学与技术,2002,25(5)：24-25.
[51]. 邓丽,黄会明,周世峰.节水灌溉项目建设过程后评价的方法和评价指标[J].节水灌溉,2004,(5)：33-35.
[52]. 周娴.水利工程移民安置效果后评价内容和方法探讨[J].水利经济,2004,22(2)：51-53.
[53]. 朱红英,李晓英,袁建国.后评价综述与水利规划后评价理论体系初探[J].水利科技与经济,2004,10(4)：196-198.
[54]. 周结斌.淮河流域行蓄洪区规划后评价研究[D].河海大学,2005.
[55]. 柯浚,陈志华.移民安置效果评价的DEA模型[J].水利经济,2002,20(5)：57-59.
[56]. 周娴.水利工程移民安置效果后评价内容和方法探讨[J].水利经济,2004,22(2)：51-53.
[57]. Coelli T J, Prasada Rao D S, O'Donnell C J, et al. Data Envelopment Analysis[J]. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis,2005: 161-181.
[58]. Banker R D, Charnes A, Cooper W W. Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis [J]. Management science, 1984,30(9):1078-1092.
[59]. Mahlberg B, Obersteiner M. Remeasuring the HDI by data envelopement analysis[J]. Available at SSRN 1999372,2001.
[60]. Data envelopment analysis:theory, methodology and applications[M]. Springer,1994.
[61]. Cooper W W, Seiford L M, Tone K. Data envelopment analysis:a comprehensive text with models, applications, references and DEA-solver software[M]. Springer,2007.
[62]. Charnes A, Cooper W W, Rhodes E. Evaluating program and managerial efficiency:an application of data envelopment analysis to program follow through[J]. Management Science,1981,27(6):668-697.
[63]. Wober K W. Data envelopment analysis[J]. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing,2007,21(4):91-108.
[64]. Molinero C M, Woracker D. Data Envelopment Analysis[J]. Or Insight,1996, 9(4):22-28.
[65]. Binbin Tang,Baochen liu, Zhihua Deng. A Study on Economic Post Project Evaluation of Cascade Hydropower Stations based on Data Envelopment Analysis[M]. Springer, Applied Mechanics and Materials Vols,438-439 (2013): 839-844.
[66]. Binbin Tang,Baochen liu, Zhihua Deng.Evaluation research about the post environmental impact assessment of cascade hydropower engineering which based on Matter-element and Analytic-hierarchy coupling model. [M]. Springer, Applied Mechanics and Materials Vol,437 (2013):1038-1045.
[67]. 徐定辉,王鹤鸣,周丽莉.水电流域滚动开发模式探析[J].云南水力发电,2004,(5)：15-18.
[68]. 赵麦换.水库补偿效益理论与实践-以黄河干流水库为例[D].西安：西安理工大学,2004.
[69]. 杨文娟.黄河干流梯级水库电站补偿调节方案评价研究[D].西安：西安理工大学,2007.
[70]. 张勇传,李福生,熊斯毅,等.水电站水库群优化调度方法的研究[J].水力发电,1981,(11)：48-52.
[71]. 谭维炎,刘健民,黄守信,等.应用随机动态规划进行水电站水库的最优调度[J].水利学报,1982,(7)：3-9.
[72]. 鲁子林.水库群调度网络分析法[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),1983,(4)：38-51.
[73]. 张珏,孙维红,斯煊昀.水利水电项目后评价的经济评价研究[J].中国水能及电气化,2010,72(12)：41-46.
[74]. 吴泽宁,索丽生,王海政.水利水电项目经济风险的模糊分析方法[J].河海大学学报：自然科学版,2003,31(3)：276-280.
[75]. 张淙皎,张世宝,冯田华.桃林口水库工程经济后评价防洪效益计算[J].中国农村水利水电,2002,(8)：6-7.
[76]. 甄达福.模糊层次分析法在水电工程中的应用[J].湖南水利,1997,(3)：24-27.
[77]. 董子敖,李瑛,阎建生.串并混联水电站优化调度与补偿调节多目标多层次模型[J].水力发电学报,1989,(2)：8-22.
[78]. 赵雅坤.钦江流域水库多目标调控研究[D].广西大学,2012.
[79]. 高仕春,陶自成,阳蓉.熵权法在梯级电站效益补偿分摊中的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2007,25(4)：120-122.
[80]. 伍永刚,王献奇,裴哲义.电力市场中水电厂间补偿效益的分摊方法[J].水力发电,2006,32(10)：17-20.
[81]. 夏忠,黄强,赵雪花.黄河上游梯级水电站滚动开发顺序决策分析[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(6)：1-5.
[82]. 鲁子林,李春尧,吴涌虎.水电站开发顺序优化模型[J].河海大学学报：自然科学版,1989,(4)：82-90.
[83]. 罗志辉,陈惠源.梯级水电站开发顺序多目标优化方法的研究——复合排序模型与非劣序生成技术[J].水利学报,1998,(1)：29-32.
[84]. 傅明辉,汪定伟,孟波.水电站群开发顺序和装机容量设计的动态规划模型[J].水电能源科学,1989,7(4)：336-343.
[85]. 夏忠,黄强,赵雪花.水利经济学——黄河上游梯级水电站滚动开发顺序决策分析[J].中国学术期刊文摘,2006,12(10)：201-201.
[86]. 金庆祥.澜沧江中游梯级电站开发顺序研究[J].云南水力发电,1989,(2)： 24-27.
[87]. 张希载.对大朝山,小湾水电站开发顺序的意见[J].云南水力发电,1989,(2)：20-23.
[88]. 李正最,吴雅琴.用灰色联度分析方法优选中小型梯级水电站群开发顺序[J].珠江水利水电信息,1993,(4)：31-35.
[89]. 杨侃,张和平,丰景春.应用于水利工程建设优化开发顺序的状态滑动排序模型[J].河海大学学报,1996,(3)：117-119.
[90]. 黄永绥.溪洛渡,向家坝水电站开发顺序的探讨[J].四川水力发电,1994,(3)：82-90.
[91]. 邱锡成,黄涛珍,赵敏,等.红水河梯级电站开发顺序优化[J].水利经济,1989,(1)：20-28.
[92]. 邱锡成,王宗源,葛久研.红水河梯级开发顺序组合的补偿调节和优化调节数学模型研究[J].水利水电技术,1987,(4)：14-19.
[93]. 罗志辉,陈惠源,冯尚友.电站群非劣开发顺序多目标决策评价方法[J].水电能源科学,1999,(2)：24-26
[94]. 马长富,王中强.河流梯级开发顺序的决策分析方法探讨[J].陕西水力发电,1995,11(4)：40-45.
[95]. 欧俊峰.白水江流域后续水电站开发顺序的选择[J].四川水力发电,2007,26(2)：12-13.
[96]. 王世定.水电站开发顺序的模糊优选研究[J].能源季刊,1989,(2)：8-14.
[97]. 韩宇平,阮本清,解建仓.多层次多目标模糊优选模型在水安全评价中的应用[J].资源科学,2003,25(4)：37-42.
[98]. 齐济,李岩,李德峰.基于改进AHP法定权的模糊优选模型在地下水质评价中的应用[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2002,23(2)：4-6.
[99]. 陈守煜,赵瑛琪.系统层次分析模糊优选模型[J].水利学报,1988,10(1)：3-12.
[100]. 陈守煜,赵瑛琪.模糊优选理论与模型[J].模糊系统与数学,1990,4(2)：87-91.
[101]. 胡志根,肖焕雄.水电工程施工布置方案多目标模糊优选决策研究[J].水电站设计,1997,13(2)：19-23.
[102]. 陈守煜.系统模糊优选理论解水电站最优排序[J].大连理工大学学报,1989,29(1)：99-108.
[103]. 闫毅志,李玲.模糊优选模型在流域梯级水电开发中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(10)：142-145.
[104]. 王世定.水电站开发顺序的模糊优选研究[J].能源季刊,1989,(2)：8-14.
[105]. 石忠伟,纪利,王兵.基于模糊理论与改进AHP法的水资源开发方式优选模型[J].2009.(S1)：1-7.
[106]. 唐健,黄健元.模糊优选模型及其应用[J].大学数学,2005,21(6)：71-76.
[107]. 王本德,周惠成.梯级水库群防洪系统的多目标洪水调度决策的模糊优选[J].水利学报,1994,(2)：31-39.
[108]. 崔振才,田文苓,郭林华.水资源可持续利用的模糊优选模型[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2000,(S1)：98-100.
[109]. 张哲,王会利,石磊,等.桥梁方案多层多目标模糊优选模型及其应用[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2006,38(9)：1567-1571.
[110]. 张冰,张卫兵.基于模糊优选模型的水资源配置方案评价[J].节水灌溉,2009(6)：29-31.
[111]. 李月.工程项目后评价概述[J].建筑与环境,2012,(6)：105-106.
[112]. 宋永发,李荣星,王延龙.建设项目评价理论方法研究[J].基建优化,2007,28(02)：18-20.
[113]. 史震古.关于水利水电工程建设的后评价[1].江西水利科技,1993,(1)：017.
[114]. 格日乐,程扬,李和平.国内水利项目后评价理论探讨[J].内蒙古环境科学,2009,21(5)：37-40.
[115]. 吴恒安.后评价与水利项目后评价[J].北京水利,1998,(1)：12-16.
[116]. 刘鹏,谭洪林.浅谈项目后评价的实践应用及其重要意义[J].东方企业文化,2013,(4)：191.
[117]. 姜天文,刘明辉,周占发,等.浅谈项目后评价在国内工程建设领域中的应用[J].化工科技,2012,20(3)：75-78.
[118]. 杨永东.水电工程项目后评价方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2003.
[119]. 徐定辉,王鹤鸣,周丽莉.水电流域滚动开发模式探析[J].云南水力发电,2004,(5)：15-18.
[120]. 陈岩.谈水利建设项目后评价的监督控制作用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007,5(2)：91-93.
[121]. 吴明龙.项目后评价方法在水利工程项目中的运用[J].江苏水利,2007(4)：1 0.
[122]. 张海军,施颖,李睿.项目后评价理论及方法探讨[J].商业时代,2012,(28)：105-106.
[123]. 张礼安,李华启,李刚,等.建设项目后评价方法和程序[J].国际石油经 济,2005,13(11)：27-28.
[124]. 柯礼聃.建立新型的黄河流域管理体制[J].中国水利,2001,(4)：91-93.
[125]. 张虎成,魏浪,张习传.水利水电建设项目后评价研究现状与发展趋势[J].贵州水力发电,2007,21(5)：12-15.
[126]. 田艳萍.水利工程项目后评价的目的,意义和内容[J].水利科技与经济,2007,13(9)：628-628.
[127]. 金琳.国内外工程项目后评价的比较分析[D].西北农林科技大学,2010.
[128]. 李友辉,孔琼菊,马秀峰等.流域梯级开发环境影响评价指标体系研究[J].水电能源科学,2010,28(5)：101-105.
[129]. 陈新军,田里,张望林.基于“生态系统控制论”原理的小流域综合治理对策研究[J].中国水土保持,2010,(5)：58-60.
[130]. Walter M S G, Spitta I T. Approaches to the ex-ante evaluation of investments into information systems[J]. Wirtschaftsinformatik,2004,46(3): 171-180.
[131]. YIN H, SUN X, FU Y. Research on Past Evaluation of Technological Outcome's Transformation Project Based on Entropy Method [J]. Science of Science and Management of S.& T,2007, (10):125-129.
[132]. Chang C, Zhao J, Zhu N. Energy saving effect prediction and post evaluation of air-conditioning system in public buildings[J]. Energy and Buildings,2011, 43(11):3243-3249.
[133]. Downs P W, Kondolf G M. Post-project appraisals in adaptive management of river channel restoration[J]. Environmental Management,2002,29(4): 477-496.
[134]. OlssonN O E, Krane H P, Rolstadas A, et al. Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects[J]. Transport Policy,2010,17(4): 251-258.
[135]. Sanko N, Morikawa T, Nagamatsu Y. Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts:Implications from the case of a Japanese railway[J]. Transport Policy,2013, (27):209-218.
[136].黄晓荣,张新海,杨立彬,等.黄河流域(片)水资源综合规划的关键技术[J].人民黄河,2007,29(4)：32-34.
[137]. 黎智良.中小型水利工程项目后评价[J].水利技术监督,2009,17(2)：31-33.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |