流域水电梯级开发项目累积环境影响作用机制及评价研究
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摘要
流域水电梯级开发项目是由流域上若干单项水电工程组成的项目群体,此类项目群的开发是一项复杂而系统的工作,其对流域的环境影响尤其复杂,一直是理论研究的重点和难点。但目前关于流域梯级开发活动环境累积影响机理及评价方法的研究比较缺乏,该领域的理论及方法体系也很不完善。
本文在分析国内外研究现状及梯级开发环境影响特点的基础上,以可持续发展理论、环境影响评价原理、水利科学、管理科学、系统科学等为指导,对流域水电梯级开发累积环境影响机理及综合评价体系进行了尝试性和开拓性的研究。主要的研究成果如下：
1、分析了流域水电梯级开发项目与一般单项水电工程项目相比在环境影响方面独特的性质：群体性、系统性、累积性、波及性及潜在性,且上述特性最终都会以累积性的形式表现出来,因此流域水电梯级开发需进行累积环境影响评价,从时间和空间上分析流域各梯级间及各环境因子间相互作用的过程及效果。
2、分析了流域水电梯级开发累积环境影响三要素：累积影响源为梯级开发活动；累积影响效应表现为若干效应的并存,且受到加和及交互作用两种途径的共同影响。揭示了梯级开发活动与流域环境间的耦合机制、自催化机制以及反馈调节机制。
3、分析了水电梯级开发活动对流域环境的胁迫约束效应,建立了流域梯级开发活动与流域环境之间非线性的演化关系模型,定义了系统耦合度函数“Y”,并依据“Y”的大小总结了该演化进程呈周期性变化的规律；运用耗散结构原理描述了流域水电梯级开发环境系统的自催化作用机制,绘制了自催化作用机制流程图,并用熵值法定量确定了流域梯级开发环境系统耗散结构“总熵”；借助系统动力学方法绘制了流域梯级开发与环境系统反馈调节机制的因果关系图,并采用顶点赋权反馈因果关系图分析法计算了图中各顶点的指标值。
4、研究了水电梯级开发对累积环境效应的驱动作用,提出梯级开发项目累积环境影响PSR框架,建立了“双环”结构的水电梯级开发累积环境效应指标体系概念框架,进而分解得到梯级开发项目累积环境影响指标体系。运用幕景分析法、交互矩阵法及熵值法,构建了水电梯级开发项目累积环境影响综合评价模型；通过建立交互作用矩阵从时间和空间上衡量了指标体系中各环境影响因子的累积效果；定义了累积影响程度系数以综合反映流域环境影响的累积程度。
5、基于综合评价结论,探讨了水电梯级开发累积环境影响因子的技术诊断及分析方法；从非技术层面分析了水电梯级开发项目累积环境影响产生的原因：市场层面(市场配置失灵)、企业层面(开发企业具有理性行为)、政府层面(环境管理中存在寻租行为)及社会层面(公众环保意识淡薄)；并分别从技术、市场、企业、政府、社会方面提出了流域环境的治理对策。
全文探讨了水电梯级开发项目对流域环境作用的累积过程,研究了累积作用的机理及规律,建立了多理论支撑下的累积环境影响指标体系及综合评估模型,强调了人类活动与自然、社会环境的相互作用及流域的可持续发展能力,形成了新的环境影响分析的理论与方法体系。
Watershed hydropower cascade development project is a group of individual hydropower project in the river valley which is a kind of complex and systemic actions. The study on the environmental impact of these projects is always an important thesis of theory. At present, the study of cumulative environmental impact's mechanism and evaluation method for hydropower cascade development project of basin is still lack, the theory and method system in this field is imperfect.
On the basis of analyzing research status at home and abroad and the characteristics of cascade development's environment impact, guiding by sustainable development theory, environmental assessment theory, water conservancy science, management science and system science, a pioneering study on systems of cumulative environmental impact's mechanism and evaluation method for hydropower cascade development project is attempted to make. Main research results as follows:
1、Comparing with single hydropower project, hydropower cascade development project's environmental impacts exhibits unique properties: group, systematic,cumulative, colonial and potential impacts, all of which is always expressed by "cumulative". So it is necessary to make the cumulative impact assessment for watershed hydropower cascade development and weight the cumulative impact of each cascade station to each environmental element from the time and space.
2、Analyzing three elements of hydropower cascade development project's cumulative impacts:cumulative impact source is the cascade development project, cumulative effect have many types which is effected by plus and interaction functions. Also, the coupling mechanism, autocatalytic mechanism and feedback regulation mechanism between cascade development and basin environment is revealed.
3、The stress and constraint effects between cascade development and basin environment are analyzed. Then a nonlinear evolutional relationship model is built. The coupling degree of system function "γ" is definited and its regularity of periodic variation is discussed; the autocatalytic mechanism of this system is described by dissipative structure principle, and autocatalytic mechanism flow chart is built, then the "total entropy" of the evolution system is quantitatively expressed by entropy method; the causality graph of feedback regulation mechanism is built by system dynamics and then a quantitative model is built by vertex weighted causal loop diagram analysis approach.
4、This article studies the driving force to cumulative environmental effects by hydropower cascade development and puts forward the cumulative environmental effects'PSR framework of hydropower cascade development. Then the indexes conception framework for "double-loop" structure is built and then the indexes system is got. Using scenario analysis, interaction matrix method and entropy method, a comprehensive evaluation model of cumulative environmental impacts is built. After building interaction matrix to weight the cumulative effect for each element from time and space, the cumulative impact coefficient is definited to reflect watershed environmental impacts'cumulative degree.
5、Base on the comprehensive evaluation conclusion, technically diagnostic studies to cumulative environmental factors is made. Then the non-technical reasons are also analyzed:market level (market distribution failure), enterprise level (developing enterprise's rational behavior), government level (rent-seeking behavior in environmental management), society level (public's environmental protection consciousness is plain). In the end, the corresponding countermeasures from technology^market> enterprise> government and society level are put forward.
This article discusses the cumulative process of the watershed environment acted by cascade hydropower development, then the mechanism and regularity is studied, the index system framework and comprehensive assessment model under several theories is built. Through the whole article, the interaction between human activity and naturak social environment and the sustainable development ability of the basin emphasized, and then a new theory and method system for environmental impact analysis is formed.
本文在分析国内外研究现状及梯级开发环境影响特点的基础上,以可持续发展理论、环境影响评价原理、水利科学、管理科学、系统科学等为指导,对流域水电梯级开发累积环境影响机理及综合评价体系进行了尝试性和开拓性的研究。主要的研究成果如下：
1、分析了流域水电梯级开发项目与一般单项水电工程项目相比在环境影响方面独特的性质：群体性、系统性、累积性、波及性及潜在性,且上述特性最终都会以累积性的形式表现出来,因此流域水电梯级开发需进行累积环境影响评价,从时间和空间上分析流域各梯级间及各环境因子间相互作用的过程及效果。
2、分析了流域水电梯级开发累积环境影响三要素：累积影响源为梯级开发活动；累积影响效应表现为若干效应的并存,且受到加和及交互作用两种途径的共同影响。揭示了梯级开发活动与流域环境间的耦合机制、自催化机制以及反馈调节机制。
3、分析了水电梯级开发活动对流域环境的胁迫约束效应,建立了流域梯级开发活动与流域环境之间非线性的演化关系模型,定义了系统耦合度函数“Y”,并依据“Y”的大小总结了该演化进程呈周期性变化的规律；运用耗散结构原理描述了流域水电梯级开发环境系统的自催化作用机制,绘制了自催化作用机制流程图,并用熵值法定量确定了流域梯级开发环境系统耗散结构“总熵”；借助系统动力学方法绘制了流域梯级开发与环境系统反馈调节机制的因果关系图,并采用顶点赋权反馈因果关系图分析法计算了图中各顶点的指标值。
4、研究了水电梯级开发对累积环境效应的驱动作用,提出梯级开发项目累积环境影响PSR框架,建立了“双环”结构的水电梯级开发累积环境效应指标体系概念框架,进而分解得到梯级开发项目累积环境影响指标体系。运用幕景分析法、交互矩阵法及熵值法,构建了水电梯级开发项目累积环境影响综合评价模型；通过建立交互作用矩阵从时间和空间上衡量了指标体系中各环境影响因子的累积效果；定义了累积影响程度系数以综合反映流域环境影响的累积程度。
5、基于综合评价结论,探讨了水电梯级开发累积环境影响因子的技术诊断及分析方法；从非技术层面分析了水电梯级开发项目累积环境影响产生的原因：市场层面(市场配置失灵)、企业层面(开发企业具有理性行为)、政府层面(环境管理中存在寻租行为)及社会层面(公众环保意识淡薄)；并分别从技术、市场、企业、政府、社会方面提出了流域环境的治理对策。
全文探讨了水电梯级开发项目对流域环境作用的累积过程,研究了累积作用的机理及规律,建立了多理论支撑下的累积环境影响指标体系及综合评估模型,强调了人类活动与自然、社会环境的相互作用及流域的可持续发展能力,形成了新的环境影响分析的理论与方法体系。
Watershed hydropower cascade development project is a group of individual hydropower project in the river valley which is a kind of complex and systemic actions. The study on the environmental impact of these projects is always an important thesis of theory. At present, the study of cumulative environmental impact's mechanism and evaluation method for hydropower cascade development project of basin is still lack, the theory and method system in this field is imperfect.
On the basis of analyzing research status at home and abroad and the characteristics of cascade development's environment impact, guiding by sustainable development theory, environmental assessment theory, water conservancy science, management science and system science, a pioneering study on systems of cumulative environmental impact's mechanism and evaluation method for hydropower cascade development project is attempted to make. Main research results as follows:
1、Comparing with single hydropower project, hydropower cascade development project's environmental impacts exhibits unique properties: group, systematic,cumulative, colonial and potential impacts, all of which is always expressed by "cumulative". So it is necessary to make the cumulative impact assessment for watershed hydropower cascade development and weight the cumulative impact of each cascade station to each environmental element from the time and space.
2、Analyzing three elements of hydropower cascade development project's cumulative impacts:cumulative impact source is the cascade development project, cumulative effect have many types which is effected by plus and interaction functions. Also, the coupling mechanism, autocatalytic mechanism and feedback regulation mechanism between cascade development and basin environment is revealed.
3、The stress and constraint effects between cascade development and basin environment are analyzed. Then a nonlinear evolutional relationship model is built. The coupling degree of system function "γ" is definited and its regularity of periodic variation is discussed; the autocatalytic mechanism of this system is described by dissipative structure principle, and autocatalytic mechanism flow chart is built, then the "total entropy" of the evolution system is quantitatively expressed by entropy method; the causality graph of feedback regulation mechanism is built by system dynamics and then a quantitative model is built by vertex weighted causal loop diagram analysis approach.
4、This article studies the driving force to cumulative environmental effects by hydropower cascade development and puts forward the cumulative environmental effects'PSR framework of hydropower cascade development. Then the indexes conception framework for "double-loop" structure is built and then the indexes system is got. Using scenario analysis, interaction matrix method and entropy method, a comprehensive evaluation model of cumulative environmental impacts is built. After building interaction matrix to weight the cumulative effect for each element from time and space, the cumulative impact coefficient is definited to reflect watershed environmental impacts'cumulative degree.
5、Base on the comprehensive evaluation conclusion, technically diagnostic studies to cumulative environmental factors is made. Then the non-technical reasons are also analyzed:market level (market distribution failure), enterprise level (developing enterprise's rational behavior), government level (rent-seeking behavior in environmental management), society level (public's environmental protection consciousness is plain). In the end, the corresponding countermeasures from technology^market> enterprise> government and society level are put forward.
This article discusses the cumulative process of the watershed environment acted by cascade hydropower development, then the mechanism and regularity is studied, the index system framework and comprehensive assessment model under several theories is built. Through the whole article, the interaction between human activity and naturak social environment and the sustainable development ability of the basin emphasized, and then a new theory and method system for environmental impact analysis is formed.
引文
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