空间溢出、吸收能力与我国区域新兴产业发展
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摘要
世界经济发展经验表明：科技革命、产业演进与经济周期之间是高度吻合的,每一次科技革命都能够产生一批新兴产业,新兴产业的快速发展都会带来世界经济的快速增长；而当世界经济处于低谷时,又会催生新的科技革命,孕育新的产业,并能使世界经济进入新一轮增长周期,如此周而复始。当前正是由第三次科技革命所主导的新兴产业发展的黄金时期,能否把握历史机遇、快速发展新兴产业,不但直接影响近几年的区域发展水平,而且关系到其未来的发展空间和竞争实力。
发展新兴产业需要有新兴的技术,对于发展中经济体来说,获得新兴技术的途径一般有三条,即组织力量自主研发、从发达经济体购买以及利用参与国际合作的机会接受空间溢出等。国内外大量文献表明,从发达经济体吸收其溢出是技术相对落后的发展中经济体技术进步的非常有效的方式。基于空间隔阻,国外溢出不会自动与本土生产要素结合并形成生产力,即使在同一个时空中,如果自身的吸收能力不强,仍然不能利用到国外溢出。因此,利用空间溢出获得新技术(新产品、新工艺、新理念)发展新兴产业的条件,除了可达性外,具备较强的吸收能力是最为关键的因素,这也正是本文研究的逻辑基础与动因。空间依赖(空间自相关性)是空间外部性的外在表现,空间溢出则是实现外部性的内在动因；吸收能力是区域综合能力(尤其是学习能力)的一种体现,是利用空间溢出发展新兴产业的必须。
本文以空间相互作用理论、内生增长理论以及区域发展理论等为基础,在规范分析空间溢出、吸收能力及技术创新与产业演进等有关理论的基础上,运用结构方程(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)模型对空间溢出、吸收能力与区域新兴产业发展及其相互关系进行了研究,并得到如下结论：第一、用溯本追源的方式理清了“溢出”的基本内涵——因“多”而溢(“多”有绝对的多和相对的多之分),以"mWnH"方式,分析了“空间溢出”多重维度,并强调空间溢出的实质应该是空间的流动与漂移——即一个空间携带着自身的各种要素流动到另一个空间并与之相互作用,从而实现“1+1>2”的融合放大效应。第二、利用建构反映“空间溢出、吸收能力、新兴产业发展以及环境因素”之间基本关系的模型,以北京、上海、广东与湖北四省市高新技术产业的客观数据为基础,运用结构方程模型方法,从区域和产业两个维度,进行了验证和探索性分析。第三、吸收能力正相关影响新兴产业发展的假设,在两个维度上都得到了验证,并且相关性很强；第四、空间溢出正向影响新兴产业发展在区域维度的北京、广东、湖北得到验证,产业层面上,只有电子计算机及办公设备制造业和电子及通信设备制造业两个产业得到验证；第五、吸收能力与空间溢出正相关在区域层面单个地区得到验证,全样本没有得到验证,产业层面上,只有医药制造业产业得到验证；第六、吸收能力对空间溢出影响新兴产业发展具有调节效应,在区域和产业两个维度都得到验证,并且较为显著；第七、环境因素对吸收能力具有正向作用,在广东和湖北地区没有得到验证；第八、就模型本身而言,区域维度中,北京和上海的运算结果优于广东和湖北,产业维度中,电子及通信设备制造业、电子计算机及办公设备制造业、医药制造业优于航空航天器制造业、医疗及仪器仪表制造;第九、对于用来测度潜变量的观测变量指标,不同地区、不同行业不同,甚至有较大的差异等。
本文的研究表明,空间溢出作为一种客观存在,对区域新兴产业发展的影响不会自动发生,其发生是在一定条件下、遵循合理机制、沿着自身特定路径进行的。对于发展中经济体的区域来说,若想通过空间溢出获得先进技术并发展新兴产业,不但要提升自身的吸收能力,而且还要注重制度、文化等环境因素的作用,针对技术性质的不同,结合具体产业选择适合的路径实施。
The experiences of economic development around the world show that the relationship among scientific and technical revolution, industry evolution and economic cycle is highly consistent. Each scientific and technical revolution would produce a batch of emerging industries. The rapid development of emerging industries would bring the rapid growth of world economy. And when the world economy was in a low, it would lead to a new revolution of science and technology, foster new industries, and then make the world economy into a new round of growth cycle. At present, it is the golden era of emerging industries development, dominated by the third revolution of science and technology. Whether grasp the historical to rapidly develop emerging industries, not only directly affects the level of regional economic development in recent years, but also is related to its future development space and competitive strength. Developing emerging industries needs to have new technologies. For developing economies, independent research and development, international trade and international cooperation are generally the main channels to access new technologies. A number of internal and external literatures indicate that absorbing spillover from developed economies is a very effective way of technological advances for developing economies backward technical gap. Based on spatial deaden, foreign spillover cannot automatically combine with local production factors and convert into productivity. Even in the same space and time, developing economies can actually get what extent of foreign spillover is finally depended on their absorptive capacity. Therefore, utilizing spillover to obtain technologies and develop emerging industries, in addition to accessibility, regional absorptive capacity is the most critical factor. This is the logic foundation and motivation of this research. Spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) is the external performance of spatial externality, but spatial spillover is the intrinsic motivation of realizing externality.
Based on the theories of spatial interaction, endogenous growth and regional development, this paper adopts normative analysis to analyze related theories of spatial spillover, absorptive capability, technological innovation and industrial evolution, uses SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) to empirically study spatial spillover, absorptive capacity and regional emerging industries development and their relationships, and obtains the following conclusions. First, it clears off the basic connotation of "spillover" by tracing to the source--spillover for the "more"("more" can be absolute and relative), analyzes the multiple dimensions of "spatial spillover" by the "mWnH" method and emphasizes that the essence of spatial spillover should be the flow and drift of space--a space with various elements flows to another space and interacts with each other to realize the effect of"1+1>2". Second, on the basis of high-tech industries' objective data of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Hubei, this study uses the basic relationship model among spatial spillover, absorptive ability, emerging industries development and environmental factor, and conducts exploring and confirmatory factor analysis from the two dimensions of regional and industry with the help of structural equation modeling. Empirical results show that:(1) the emerging industry development is positively related to absorptive capacity, in two dimensions to verify the hypothesis, and there is a strong correlation between them;(2) the hypothesis that spatial spillover positively affects the development of emerging industries, has not been tested in the regional dimension of Shanghai and the industry level of aerospace manufacturing industry;(3) the positive correlation between absorptive capacity and spatial spillover is validated at the regional level of a single area, but the full sample does not pass validation;(4) absorptive capacity has an obvious moderating effect on spatial spillover promoting emerging industries development, which has been demonstrated in two dimensions of regional and industry;(5) environmental factors have a positive effect on the absorption ability, which has not been validated in Guangdong and Hubei area;(6) on the model itself, the results of Beijing and Shanghai are better than those of Guangdong and Hubei in the regional dimension, and the results of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry, the electronic computer and office equipment manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry are better than those of aerospace manufacturing industry and medical and instrument manufacture in the industrial dimension;(7) observation variables used to measure the latent variables have differences in different regions and industries, even larger.
This study shows that spatial spillover as a kind of objective existence will not automatically affect the development of regional emerging industries. It requires certain conditions, following reasonable mechanisms along the specific paths. For developing economies, to acquire advanced technology to promote emerging industries development through spatial spillover, not only do they need to enhance their absorptive capacity, but also focus on the roles of institution and culture, combined with the specific industries to select suitable paths according to the different nature of technology.
发展新兴产业需要有新兴的技术,对于发展中经济体来说,获得新兴技术的途径一般有三条,即组织力量自主研发、从发达经济体购买以及利用参与国际合作的机会接受空间溢出等。国内外大量文献表明,从发达经济体吸收其溢出是技术相对落后的发展中经济体技术进步的非常有效的方式。基于空间隔阻,国外溢出不会自动与本土生产要素结合并形成生产力,即使在同一个时空中,如果自身的吸收能力不强,仍然不能利用到国外溢出。因此,利用空间溢出获得新技术(新产品、新工艺、新理念)发展新兴产业的条件,除了可达性外,具备较强的吸收能力是最为关键的因素,这也正是本文研究的逻辑基础与动因。空间依赖(空间自相关性)是空间外部性的外在表现,空间溢出则是实现外部性的内在动因；吸收能力是区域综合能力(尤其是学习能力)的一种体现,是利用空间溢出发展新兴产业的必须。
本文以空间相互作用理论、内生增长理论以及区域发展理论等为基础,在规范分析空间溢出、吸收能力及技术创新与产业演进等有关理论的基础上,运用结构方程(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)模型对空间溢出、吸收能力与区域新兴产业发展及其相互关系进行了研究,并得到如下结论：第一、用溯本追源的方式理清了“溢出”的基本内涵——因“多”而溢(“多”有绝对的多和相对的多之分),以"mWnH"方式,分析了“空间溢出”多重维度,并强调空间溢出的实质应该是空间的流动与漂移——即一个空间携带着自身的各种要素流动到另一个空间并与之相互作用,从而实现“1+1>2”的融合放大效应。第二、利用建构反映“空间溢出、吸收能力、新兴产业发展以及环境因素”之间基本关系的模型,以北京、上海、广东与湖北四省市高新技术产业的客观数据为基础,运用结构方程模型方法,从区域和产业两个维度,进行了验证和探索性分析。第三、吸收能力正相关影响新兴产业发展的假设,在两个维度上都得到了验证,并且相关性很强；第四、空间溢出正向影响新兴产业发展在区域维度的北京、广东、湖北得到验证,产业层面上,只有电子计算机及办公设备制造业和电子及通信设备制造业两个产业得到验证；第五、吸收能力与空间溢出正相关在区域层面单个地区得到验证,全样本没有得到验证,产业层面上,只有医药制造业产业得到验证；第六、吸收能力对空间溢出影响新兴产业发展具有调节效应,在区域和产业两个维度都得到验证,并且较为显著；第七、环境因素对吸收能力具有正向作用,在广东和湖北地区没有得到验证；第八、就模型本身而言,区域维度中,北京和上海的运算结果优于广东和湖北,产业维度中,电子及通信设备制造业、电子计算机及办公设备制造业、医药制造业优于航空航天器制造业、医疗及仪器仪表制造;第九、对于用来测度潜变量的观测变量指标,不同地区、不同行业不同,甚至有较大的差异等。
本文的研究表明,空间溢出作为一种客观存在,对区域新兴产业发展的影响不会自动发生,其发生是在一定条件下、遵循合理机制、沿着自身特定路径进行的。对于发展中经济体的区域来说,若想通过空间溢出获得先进技术并发展新兴产业,不但要提升自身的吸收能力,而且还要注重制度、文化等环境因素的作用,针对技术性质的不同,结合具体产业选择适合的路径实施。
The experiences of economic development around the world show that the relationship among scientific and technical revolution, industry evolution and economic cycle is highly consistent. Each scientific and technical revolution would produce a batch of emerging industries. The rapid development of emerging industries would bring the rapid growth of world economy. And when the world economy was in a low, it would lead to a new revolution of science and technology, foster new industries, and then make the world economy into a new round of growth cycle. At present, it is the golden era of emerging industries development, dominated by the third revolution of science and technology. Whether grasp the historical to rapidly develop emerging industries, not only directly affects the level of regional economic development in recent years, but also is related to its future development space and competitive strength. Developing emerging industries needs to have new technologies. For developing economies, independent research and development, international trade and international cooperation are generally the main channels to access new technologies. A number of internal and external literatures indicate that absorbing spillover from developed economies is a very effective way of technological advances for developing economies backward technical gap. Based on spatial deaden, foreign spillover cannot automatically combine with local production factors and convert into productivity. Even in the same space and time, developing economies can actually get what extent of foreign spillover is finally depended on their absorptive capacity. Therefore, utilizing spillover to obtain technologies and develop emerging industries, in addition to accessibility, regional absorptive capacity is the most critical factor. This is the logic foundation and motivation of this research. Spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) is the external performance of spatial externality, but spatial spillover is the intrinsic motivation of realizing externality.
Based on the theories of spatial interaction, endogenous growth and regional development, this paper adopts normative analysis to analyze related theories of spatial spillover, absorptive capability, technological innovation and industrial evolution, uses SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) to empirically study spatial spillover, absorptive capacity and regional emerging industries development and their relationships, and obtains the following conclusions. First, it clears off the basic connotation of "spillover" by tracing to the source--spillover for the "more"("more" can be absolute and relative), analyzes the multiple dimensions of "spatial spillover" by the "mWnH" method and emphasizes that the essence of spatial spillover should be the flow and drift of space--a space with various elements flows to another space and interacts with each other to realize the effect of"1+1>2". Second, on the basis of high-tech industries' objective data of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Hubei, this study uses the basic relationship model among spatial spillover, absorptive ability, emerging industries development and environmental factor, and conducts exploring and confirmatory factor analysis from the two dimensions of regional and industry with the help of structural equation modeling. Empirical results show that:(1) the emerging industry development is positively related to absorptive capacity, in two dimensions to verify the hypothesis, and there is a strong correlation between them;(2) the hypothesis that spatial spillover positively affects the development of emerging industries, has not been tested in the regional dimension of Shanghai and the industry level of aerospace manufacturing industry;(3) the positive correlation between absorptive capacity and spatial spillover is validated at the regional level of a single area, but the full sample does not pass validation;(4) absorptive capacity has an obvious moderating effect on spatial spillover promoting emerging industries development, which has been demonstrated in two dimensions of regional and industry;(5) environmental factors have a positive effect on the absorption ability, which has not been validated in Guangdong and Hubei area;(6) on the model itself, the results of Beijing and Shanghai are better than those of Guangdong and Hubei in the regional dimension, and the results of electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry, the electronic computer and office equipment manufacturing, and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry are better than those of aerospace manufacturing industry and medical and instrument manufacture in the industrial dimension;(7) observation variables used to measure the latent variables have differences in different regions and industries, even larger.
This study shows that spatial spillover as a kind of objective existence will not automatically affect the development of regional emerging industries. It requires certain conditions, following reasonable mechanisms along the specific paths. For developing economies, to acquire advanced technology to promote emerging industries development through spatial spillover, not only do they need to enhance their absorptive capacity, but also focus on the roles of institution and culture, combined with the specific industries to select suitable paths according to the different nature of technology.
引文
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