水果价格形成、波动及调控政策研究
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摘要
随着我国居民消费水平的提高,对水果的消费需求越来越大,水果消费在居民日常膳食消费中的重要性也越来越大,城镇居民年人均水果消费量由1990年的41.11千克增加到2012年的56.05千克,农村居民年人均水果消费量则由1990年的5.89千克增加到2012年的22.81千克,可见,随着人均收入水平的持续增长,未来我国城乡居民人均水果消费量将会继续增长。与水果消费持续稳定增长不同的是,水果价格表现出显著的时间和空间上的差异。根据农业部2001年1月至2011年12月市场监测数据显示,水果价格平均每月的波动幅度为7%,且最大波动幅度达20%,水果价格的波动幅度大这是个不争的事实。以苹果为例,2011年北京、天津及上海苹果价格平均为8.960元/千克、7.940元/千克及10.560元/千克,山东、陕西及河北平均价格为5.390元/千克、6.340元/千克及6.500元/千克。由此围绕水果价格产生几个核心问题：水果价格是如何形成的?影响水果价格形成的因素有哪些?不同区域水果价格之间有何联系?水果价格为什么会波动?促成水果价格波动的因素又有哪些?如何平抑水果价格波动使其保持在合理范围之内?
水果价格作为联络水果生产和消费的市场纽带,对稳定水果供给和需求至关重要：一方面,水果价格如果持续低迷,会挫伤果农的生产积极性,从而不利于水果稳定供给；另一方面,水果价格如若持续高升,会影响到消费者对水果的消费需求。因此,无论水果价格持续低迷抑或持续高升,对于整个社会福利而言,都是一种损害,故对水果价格的关注应该被提上日程。
带着以上围绕水果价格提出的问题,本文基于有关价格形成理论、波动理论及调控理论首先运用HP滤波模型和ARCH类模型研究了水果价格波动的周期特征和路径依赖特征,接着构建GMM系统模型研究了水果价格的形成机制,然后分别构建门限动态调整模型、空间计量模型及VAR模型研究了水果价格垂直传递机制、水果价格空间传递机制及外部冲击对水果价格的传递机制,紧接着通过构建生存分析模型(Survival Analysis)研究水果价格波动风险机制,最后提出水果价格调控的政策体系。具体研究内容和结论如下：
(1)对水果价格波动特征进行研究。这一部分首先运用HP滤波法对水果价格波动的周期性特征进行分析,然后运用ARCH类模型分析水果价格波动的路径特征。研究结果表明,依据波动偏离率,2001年1月至2011年12月我国水果价格波动可划分为7个周期,各周期持续的时间长度、谷-峰落差都不尽相同；水果价格波动存在明显的一阶ARCH效应,即波动具有明显的路径依赖特征。此外,水果价格波动路径不存在非对称性且对食品价格波动的反应路径具有滞后效应而对粮食及蔬菜价格波动的反应路径具有即时效应。
(2)构建供给-价格-需求系统模型对水果价格形成过程进行模拟,并运用GMM估计法对该系统模型进行估计,研究表明预期价格、进口水平、出口水平、替代品价格及供给量会对价格的形成产生直接影响,而单产水平、产量通过供给间接对价格形成产生影响,人均收入水平、加工水平、人口规模及城镇化率等因素会通过需求间接对价格形成产生影响。
(3)运用门限动态调整模型对苹果、香蕉和西瓜产、销价格之间的垂直传递机制进行了研究,结果表明短期内三种水果价格系统对均衡偏离具有自动调整机制,而这种自动调整机制因产、销经营者实力对比的不同表现出不同的特征：苹果和西瓜价格自上而下传递短期调整过程具有明显的门限效应,而香蕉价格自上而下传递却不具有门限效应,主要原因是苹果、西瓜销地经营者掌握着定价权,产地经营者处于价格被动接受地位,而香蕉销地经营者和产地经营者在定价权上处于相同的地位。
(4)构建空间面板数据模型对苹果、柑橘及香蕉价格空间传递机制进行研究,研究表明三种水果价格呈现明显的空间相关性,不同地区产量、销售成本、人均收入水平、城镇化率及替代品价格是影响三种水果地区价格形成的重要因素,苹果、香蕉和柑橘的地理空间系数分别高达0.91、0.91和0.69,经济水平空间系数分别为0.86、0.51和0.62,对外贸易水平空间系数分别为0.13、0.64和0.42,苹果、香蕉的市场保护水平空间系数分别为0.35和0.36,说明地理距离、市场保护程度差异、对外开放程度差异及经济发展水平差异是三种水果价格空间传递的制约因素。
(5)构建VAR模型研究了苹果、香蕉及西瓜国内市场价格与国际市场价格之间的传递关系,结果表明长期来看我国水果市场与国际水果市场是整合的,但这种整合却表现出单向引致关系,即国际水果价格对我国国内水果价格产生了引致作用,而反过来我国国内水果价格却未能对国际水果价格产生引致作用。此外,还运用该模型研究了国际原油价格、国际粮食价格、国内零售商品总额增长率、相对货币供给量、人民币对美元汇率及外汇储备增量变动对我国水果价格的冲击作用,研究表明这些因素分别通过供给通道、需求通道和金融通道对我国水果产地和销地价格产生冲击效应。
(6)构建水果价格波动的生存函数模型对脐橙价格波动风险机制进行了分析,结果表明脐橙价格连涨(连跌)生存时间是连涨(连跌)率的非增函数；脐橙价格连续上涨持续的时间要短于连续下跌持续的时间,脐橙价格由上涨转变为下跌的概率要大于由下跌转变为上涨的概率,这是因为我国脐橙市场处于买方市场结构,在此结构下卖方抗跌心理较弱。
(7)将水果零售价格波动的正常范围限定在通货膨胀率与城镇居民收入增长率之间,那么从2004年第一季度到2013年第二季度的38个季度里,我国水果零售价格有22个季度的波动是异常的；通过演绎分析得知我国水果市场调控存在补贴不足,多头管理问题突出、缺乏系统高效的信息平台、对流通领域的补贴成效不显著、对价格上涨和下跌的调控不具对称性等现实问题；在借鉴美、日、欧、印度及沙特等国(地区)农产品价格调控经验基础上,提出要在遵循市场对价格调控机制的原则下,从供给管理、需求引导、流通体系构建、价格保险机制建设等方面入手构建我国水果价格调控政策体系。
本文可能的创新之处有以下四点：
(1)构建了供给-价格-需求系统模型来模拟水果价格的内生过程,在此基础上进一步探讨了水果价格的形成因素。现有文献研究大多通过构建单一价格模型来研究水果价格的形成,将水果供给和需求因素看成是不受价格影响的外生变量,而将供给和需求因素看做是受价格影响的内生变量纳入到价格形成系统中的研究不多见。本文以水果价格为研究对象,将水果价格变量及水果供给、需求变量内生化来模拟水果价格动态形成过程,得出水果价格形成受水果单产水平、进口量、人均收入水平、城镇化水平、人口规模、预期价格及替代品价格等因素影响的结论。这在水果价格形成机制研究方面可能具有一定的创新性。
(2)运用门限动态调整模型来研究水果价格垂直传递机制。现有文献研究在研究水果价格垂直传递机制时大多假定垂直价格之间的传递具有线性特征,却不能证明这种线性特征必定存在。本文基于门限动态调整模型分别证实了苹果、香蕉和西瓜三种大宗水果产、销价格之间短期传递的非线性特征,认为这三种水果产、销价格之间的传递具有明显的门限效应。这在水果价格垂直传递研究方面可能具有一定创新性。
(3)运用空间计量模型来研究水果价格空间传递机制。现有文献研究大多采用传统的计量方法来研究水果价格的空间传递,而忽略了空间依赖性对水果价格空间传递的影响。本文运用空间计量模型研究了苹果、柑橘和香蕉三种大宗水果价格在我国30个省域(不包括西藏)的传递机制,得出我国水果价格区域传递具有空间溢出效应。这在水果价格空间传递研究方面可能具有一定创新性。
(4)运用生存分析模型来研究水果价格波动风险机制。现有文献研究大多采用线性模型来研究水果价格波动风险机制,少有采用非线性模型来展开研究。本文以脐橙价格为例,运用生存分析模型研究了脐橙价格波动风险机制,得出脐橙价格连涨(连跌)生存时间是连涨(连跌)率的非增函数的结论。这在研究方法上具有一定的创新性。
Along with the improvement of consumption, the demand for fruits is increasing and the consumption of fruits is playing an important role in persons' daily meals. One person in cities consumed fruits of41.11kg on average in1990, it rose to56.05kg in2012, in mean time, one person in countryside consumed fruits of5.89kg on average in1990, then it rose to22.81kg.That is, one person in cities or countryside will consume more fruits on average in future along the increase of per capita income. Meantime, there are differences in space-time. The market monitoring data from Januery,2001to December,2011shows that the volatility wide of fruit price is7%every month on average, the largest wide is up to20%, it is a truth that the volatility wide of fruit price. Set apple for example, the unit price in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai separately is8.960yuan,7.940yuan and10.560yuan, the unit price in Shangdong, Shanxi and Hebei separately is5.390yuan,6.340yuan and6.500yuan. It comes up several core issues as follows:how does the fruit price form? what factors influence the formation of fruit price? how do prices in different regions relate with each other?why does fruit price volatile? what factors drive fruit price to volatile? how to regulate fruit price to make it in a reasonable range?
Fruit price plays an important role about the stable supply and demand of fruits as a medium between production and consumption. On one hand, continuous low price of fruit will frustrate fruit growers which will be bad for stable supply of fruit; on the other hand, continuous high price of fruit will refrain the demand of consumers for fruit. Therefore, whatever continuous low price or continuous high price of fruit means lower welfare for the whole society. That means, the study on the formation, volatility and regulatory policy of fruit price is about people's livelihood, so more attention should be paid to fruit price.
With the questions above, based theories of price formation, price volatility and price regulation, it studies the periodicity and path dependence of fruit price using HP filter and ARCH class models firstly, after that it studies the formation of fruit price using GMM systematic model, then it studies the vertical transmission, spatial transmission and impulse transmission of fruit price sepatately using threshold model of automatic correction, spatial econometric model and VAR model, afterwards, it studies the risk mechanism of fruit price volatility using survival snalysis model, and at last it studies the regulatory policy system of fruit price in this thesis. The specific contents anc conclusions are as follows:
(1)The research is about the character of volatility of fruit price. This sectior employed HP filter method to analyze the periodic character of volatility of fruit price ai first, and then the class of ARCH model is employed to analyze the path character of volatility of fruit price. The results show that the volatility of fruit price from January2001to December,2011could be divided in to7cycles. Different cycle lasted different time and had different divide from its bottom to its peak. There is a kind of ARCH effect of a first order which means the volatility paths of fruit price are dependent on each other Additionally, the the volatility paths of fruit price are not asymmetric, and besides, the reflection of volatility of fruit price to volatility of food price is lagged while that tc volatility of grain price or vegetable price is instant.
(2)A system model of supply-price-demand is employed to research the informatior of fruit price and the system model is estimated by employing the GMM. It turns out that the expected price, the price of alternatives and the supply would influence the formatior of fruit price directly, and level of import, the yield and production would influence the formation of fruit price indirectly through supply, level of export,per capita income, rate of processing, scale of population and rate of urbanization would influence the formatior of fruit price indirectly through demand.
(3) An automatic correction model with a threshold is applied study the vertica transmission between the producer's price and the retailer's price of apple, banana and watermelon, it turns out that if the price deviates from its equilibrium, then the automatic correction of price system would work to make the deviated price come back to it: equilibrium in short-run. Different kinds of automatic correction turn out to be different characters because of the contrast of producer's power and retailer's power is different the short-rum correction of transmission from producer's price to retailer's price of apple and watermelon carries threshold effect while banana does not carry the threshold effect It is because the retailers of apple and watermelon command the pricing right, the producers of apple and watermelon are subject to the retailers while the producers anc the retailers of banana have the common pricing right.
(4) An econometric model of spatial panel state is employed to study the formatior and the spatial transmission of apple, citrus and banana price among districts. The results show that the apple, citrus or banana prices are spatially dependent among districts, that is, the domestic markets of apple, citrus or banana are becoming an integrated one. Meanwhile, the price of apple, citrus or banana of one province is affected by its yield, sale cost, per capita income, urbanization rate and price of its substitutes. Besides, the spatial coefficient of geography of apple, citrus or banana price separately is0.91,0.91and0.69, the spatial coefficient of development level of which separately is0.86、0.51and0.62, the spatial coefficient of openness level of which separately is0.13、0.64and0.42, the spatial coefficient of local market protection of apple or banana price separately is0.35and0.36, which point that factors such as geographic distance, difference of local market protection, openness level and economic development among districts block the spatial transmission of apple, citrus or banana price among districts.
(5)A VAR model is employed to research the transmission between domestic price and world price of apple, banana and water melon. The results show that Chinese domestic fruit market and the world fruit market are integrated, but this integration turns out to be one way leading effect, which means the world fruit price has leading effect on Chinese domestic fruit price, while on contrary, Chinese domestic fruit price has not leading effect on world fruit price. Besides, this model is employed to research the leading effect of world crude oil price, world grain price, growth of domestic retail sales, relative money supply, exchange of RMB to dollars and the incremental of foreign exchange reserves on producer's and retailer's price of fruit though supply channel, demand channel and finance channel.
(6) The survive function model is employed to analyze the risk character of volatility of orange price. Several conclusions are came up from the research.Firstly,the continuous rise and fall of orange price in China obey the Weibull distribution,that is,the rate of the continuous rise(fall) of the orange price makes the survive time of the continuous rise(fall) of the orange price lessen.Secondly,the survive time of the continuous rise is less than that of the continuous fall;Thirdly,the probability of rise converting to fall is higher than that of fall converting to rise.On these conclusions,a cause which results as the above fluctuation features is put forward,that is the sellers being nervous about the price fall in the buyer's marketis.
(7) Setting a range between the rate of inflation and increasing rate of income of persons in cities as a reasonable range of the volatility wide of fruit retailer's price, then in the38quarters from the first quarter in2004to the second quarter in2013, there are22quarters are not in this reasonable range, which means the volatility of fruit price is abnormal over half of the quarters. This thesis deduces the regulation on fruit market has problems as follows:the regulation on fruit market is lack of subsidy; several bureaus are conducting regulatory policies at the same time; it is lack of systematical and efficient information platform; the subsidy for the circulation does not make any effect; the regulation measures on price rise and price fall are not symmetric. On referring the regulation experiences of agricultural products from America, Japan, Europe, India and Saudi Arabia, this thesis points out that the regulatory policy system of fruit price should be constructed on the principle of market regulation and considerate aspects such as supply management, demand conduction, circulation management and price insurance.
There are four innovations in this thesis as follows:
(1)Construsting a systematic model of supple-price-demand to simulate the endogenous process and based which to study the formation factors of fruit price. The existing literatrues trend to employed single equation model to study the price formation and treat supply and demand as exogeny which are immune from price, so stuies which treat supply and demand as endogeny to put them in to the pric formation system are little. This thesis pays attention to fruit price, and treat fruit price, supply and demand as endogeny to sumulate the automatic formation progess of fruit price. It comes up that factors such as the unit yield, import, per capita income, level of urbaniliztion,population, expected price and substitute price all influenzes the formation of fruit price. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price formation.
(2)Employing an automatic threshold model to study the vertical transmission of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to assume the linearity of vertical transmission of fruit price, while could not comfirm the existing of linearity. Employing an threshold model of automatic correction, this thesis studies the transmission between producer's price and retailer's price of apple, banana and watermelon and confirms the nonlinearity and threshold effect of the price transmission. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price vertical transmission.
(3)Employing a spatial econometric model to study the spatial transmission of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to study the spatial transmission of price using traditional econometric model which ignores the spatial dependence's influence on spatial transmission of price.This thesis studies the spatial transmission of apple price, citrus price and banana price among30provinces(excluding Tibert) using a spatial econometric model and comes up that there is spatial spillover effect of reginal transmission of fruit price in China. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price spatial transmission.
(4)Using a survival analysis model to study the volatility risk of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to study the volatility risk of price using linear models and little nonlinear models. Setting orange price as an example, this thesis studies the volatility risk of orange price using a survival analysis model and comes up that the survival time of continuous rise(continuous fall) is a nonincreasing function of the rate of continuous rise(continuous fall). There probably are some innovaions on the research method.
水果价格作为联络水果生产和消费的市场纽带,对稳定水果供给和需求至关重要：一方面,水果价格如果持续低迷,会挫伤果农的生产积极性,从而不利于水果稳定供给；另一方面,水果价格如若持续高升,会影响到消费者对水果的消费需求。因此,无论水果价格持续低迷抑或持续高升,对于整个社会福利而言,都是一种损害,故对水果价格的关注应该被提上日程。
带着以上围绕水果价格提出的问题,本文基于有关价格形成理论、波动理论及调控理论首先运用HP滤波模型和ARCH类模型研究了水果价格波动的周期特征和路径依赖特征,接着构建GMM系统模型研究了水果价格的形成机制,然后分别构建门限动态调整模型、空间计量模型及VAR模型研究了水果价格垂直传递机制、水果价格空间传递机制及外部冲击对水果价格的传递机制,紧接着通过构建生存分析模型(Survival Analysis)研究水果价格波动风险机制,最后提出水果价格调控的政策体系。具体研究内容和结论如下：
(1)对水果价格波动特征进行研究。这一部分首先运用HP滤波法对水果价格波动的周期性特征进行分析,然后运用ARCH类模型分析水果价格波动的路径特征。研究结果表明,依据波动偏离率,2001年1月至2011年12月我国水果价格波动可划分为7个周期,各周期持续的时间长度、谷-峰落差都不尽相同；水果价格波动存在明显的一阶ARCH效应,即波动具有明显的路径依赖特征。此外,水果价格波动路径不存在非对称性且对食品价格波动的反应路径具有滞后效应而对粮食及蔬菜价格波动的反应路径具有即时效应。
(2)构建供给-价格-需求系统模型对水果价格形成过程进行模拟,并运用GMM估计法对该系统模型进行估计,研究表明预期价格、进口水平、出口水平、替代品价格及供给量会对价格的形成产生直接影响,而单产水平、产量通过供给间接对价格形成产生影响,人均收入水平、加工水平、人口规模及城镇化率等因素会通过需求间接对价格形成产生影响。
(3)运用门限动态调整模型对苹果、香蕉和西瓜产、销价格之间的垂直传递机制进行了研究,结果表明短期内三种水果价格系统对均衡偏离具有自动调整机制,而这种自动调整机制因产、销经营者实力对比的不同表现出不同的特征：苹果和西瓜价格自上而下传递短期调整过程具有明显的门限效应,而香蕉价格自上而下传递却不具有门限效应,主要原因是苹果、西瓜销地经营者掌握着定价权,产地经营者处于价格被动接受地位,而香蕉销地经营者和产地经营者在定价权上处于相同的地位。
(4)构建空间面板数据模型对苹果、柑橘及香蕉价格空间传递机制进行研究,研究表明三种水果价格呈现明显的空间相关性,不同地区产量、销售成本、人均收入水平、城镇化率及替代品价格是影响三种水果地区价格形成的重要因素,苹果、香蕉和柑橘的地理空间系数分别高达0.91、0.91和0.69,经济水平空间系数分别为0.86、0.51和0.62,对外贸易水平空间系数分别为0.13、0.64和0.42,苹果、香蕉的市场保护水平空间系数分别为0.35和0.36,说明地理距离、市场保护程度差异、对外开放程度差异及经济发展水平差异是三种水果价格空间传递的制约因素。
(5)构建VAR模型研究了苹果、香蕉及西瓜国内市场价格与国际市场价格之间的传递关系,结果表明长期来看我国水果市场与国际水果市场是整合的,但这种整合却表现出单向引致关系,即国际水果价格对我国国内水果价格产生了引致作用,而反过来我国国内水果价格却未能对国际水果价格产生引致作用。此外,还运用该模型研究了国际原油价格、国际粮食价格、国内零售商品总额增长率、相对货币供给量、人民币对美元汇率及外汇储备增量变动对我国水果价格的冲击作用,研究表明这些因素分别通过供给通道、需求通道和金融通道对我国水果产地和销地价格产生冲击效应。
(6)构建水果价格波动的生存函数模型对脐橙价格波动风险机制进行了分析,结果表明脐橙价格连涨(连跌)生存时间是连涨(连跌)率的非增函数；脐橙价格连续上涨持续的时间要短于连续下跌持续的时间,脐橙价格由上涨转变为下跌的概率要大于由下跌转变为上涨的概率,这是因为我国脐橙市场处于买方市场结构,在此结构下卖方抗跌心理较弱。
(7)将水果零售价格波动的正常范围限定在通货膨胀率与城镇居民收入增长率之间,那么从2004年第一季度到2013年第二季度的38个季度里,我国水果零售价格有22个季度的波动是异常的；通过演绎分析得知我国水果市场调控存在补贴不足,多头管理问题突出、缺乏系统高效的信息平台、对流通领域的补贴成效不显著、对价格上涨和下跌的调控不具对称性等现实问题；在借鉴美、日、欧、印度及沙特等国(地区)农产品价格调控经验基础上,提出要在遵循市场对价格调控机制的原则下,从供给管理、需求引导、流通体系构建、价格保险机制建设等方面入手构建我国水果价格调控政策体系。
本文可能的创新之处有以下四点：
(1)构建了供给-价格-需求系统模型来模拟水果价格的内生过程,在此基础上进一步探讨了水果价格的形成因素。现有文献研究大多通过构建单一价格模型来研究水果价格的形成,将水果供给和需求因素看成是不受价格影响的外生变量,而将供给和需求因素看做是受价格影响的内生变量纳入到价格形成系统中的研究不多见。本文以水果价格为研究对象,将水果价格变量及水果供给、需求变量内生化来模拟水果价格动态形成过程,得出水果价格形成受水果单产水平、进口量、人均收入水平、城镇化水平、人口规模、预期价格及替代品价格等因素影响的结论。这在水果价格形成机制研究方面可能具有一定的创新性。
(2)运用门限动态调整模型来研究水果价格垂直传递机制。现有文献研究在研究水果价格垂直传递机制时大多假定垂直价格之间的传递具有线性特征,却不能证明这种线性特征必定存在。本文基于门限动态调整模型分别证实了苹果、香蕉和西瓜三种大宗水果产、销价格之间短期传递的非线性特征,认为这三种水果产、销价格之间的传递具有明显的门限效应。这在水果价格垂直传递研究方面可能具有一定创新性。
(3)运用空间计量模型来研究水果价格空间传递机制。现有文献研究大多采用传统的计量方法来研究水果价格的空间传递,而忽略了空间依赖性对水果价格空间传递的影响。本文运用空间计量模型研究了苹果、柑橘和香蕉三种大宗水果价格在我国30个省域(不包括西藏)的传递机制,得出我国水果价格区域传递具有空间溢出效应。这在水果价格空间传递研究方面可能具有一定创新性。
(4)运用生存分析模型来研究水果价格波动风险机制。现有文献研究大多采用线性模型来研究水果价格波动风险机制,少有采用非线性模型来展开研究。本文以脐橙价格为例,运用生存分析模型研究了脐橙价格波动风险机制,得出脐橙价格连涨(连跌)生存时间是连涨(连跌)率的非增函数的结论。这在研究方法上具有一定的创新性。
Along with the improvement of consumption, the demand for fruits is increasing and the consumption of fruits is playing an important role in persons' daily meals. One person in cities consumed fruits of41.11kg on average in1990, it rose to56.05kg in2012, in mean time, one person in countryside consumed fruits of5.89kg on average in1990, then it rose to22.81kg.That is, one person in cities or countryside will consume more fruits on average in future along the increase of per capita income. Meantime, there are differences in space-time. The market monitoring data from Januery,2001to December,2011shows that the volatility wide of fruit price is7%every month on average, the largest wide is up to20%, it is a truth that the volatility wide of fruit price. Set apple for example, the unit price in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai separately is8.960yuan,7.940yuan and10.560yuan, the unit price in Shangdong, Shanxi and Hebei separately is5.390yuan,6.340yuan and6.500yuan. It comes up several core issues as follows:how does the fruit price form? what factors influence the formation of fruit price? how do prices in different regions relate with each other?why does fruit price volatile? what factors drive fruit price to volatile? how to regulate fruit price to make it in a reasonable range?
Fruit price plays an important role about the stable supply and demand of fruits as a medium between production and consumption. On one hand, continuous low price of fruit will frustrate fruit growers which will be bad for stable supply of fruit; on the other hand, continuous high price of fruit will refrain the demand of consumers for fruit. Therefore, whatever continuous low price or continuous high price of fruit means lower welfare for the whole society. That means, the study on the formation, volatility and regulatory policy of fruit price is about people's livelihood, so more attention should be paid to fruit price.
With the questions above, based theories of price formation, price volatility and price regulation, it studies the periodicity and path dependence of fruit price using HP filter and ARCH class models firstly, after that it studies the formation of fruit price using GMM systematic model, then it studies the vertical transmission, spatial transmission and impulse transmission of fruit price sepatately using threshold model of automatic correction, spatial econometric model and VAR model, afterwards, it studies the risk mechanism of fruit price volatility using survival snalysis model, and at last it studies the regulatory policy system of fruit price in this thesis. The specific contents anc conclusions are as follows:
(1)The research is about the character of volatility of fruit price. This sectior employed HP filter method to analyze the periodic character of volatility of fruit price ai first, and then the class of ARCH model is employed to analyze the path character of volatility of fruit price. The results show that the volatility of fruit price from January2001to December,2011could be divided in to7cycles. Different cycle lasted different time and had different divide from its bottom to its peak. There is a kind of ARCH effect of a first order which means the volatility paths of fruit price are dependent on each other Additionally, the the volatility paths of fruit price are not asymmetric, and besides, the reflection of volatility of fruit price to volatility of food price is lagged while that tc volatility of grain price or vegetable price is instant.
(2)A system model of supply-price-demand is employed to research the informatior of fruit price and the system model is estimated by employing the GMM. It turns out that the expected price, the price of alternatives and the supply would influence the formatior of fruit price directly, and level of import, the yield and production would influence the formation of fruit price indirectly through supply, level of export,per capita income, rate of processing, scale of population and rate of urbanization would influence the formatior of fruit price indirectly through demand.
(3) An automatic correction model with a threshold is applied study the vertica transmission between the producer's price and the retailer's price of apple, banana and watermelon, it turns out that if the price deviates from its equilibrium, then the automatic correction of price system would work to make the deviated price come back to it: equilibrium in short-run. Different kinds of automatic correction turn out to be different characters because of the contrast of producer's power and retailer's power is different the short-rum correction of transmission from producer's price to retailer's price of apple and watermelon carries threshold effect while banana does not carry the threshold effect It is because the retailers of apple and watermelon command the pricing right, the producers of apple and watermelon are subject to the retailers while the producers anc the retailers of banana have the common pricing right.
(4) An econometric model of spatial panel state is employed to study the formatior and the spatial transmission of apple, citrus and banana price among districts. The results show that the apple, citrus or banana prices are spatially dependent among districts, that is, the domestic markets of apple, citrus or banana are becoming an integrated one. Meanwhile, the price of apple, citrus or banana of one province is affected by its yield, sale cost, per capita income, urbanization rate and price of its substitutes. Besides, the spatial coefficient of geography of apple, citrus or banana price separately is0.91,0.91and0.69, the spatial coefficient of development level of which separately is0.86、0.51and0.62, the spatial coefficient of openness level of which separately is0.13、0.64and0.42, the spatial coefficient of local market protection of apple or banana price separately is0.35and0.36, which point that factors such as geographic distance, difference of local market protection, openness level and economic development among districts block the spatial transmission of apple, citrus or banana price among districts.
(5)A VAR model is employed to research the transmission between domestic price and world price of apple, banana and water melon. The results show that Chinese domestic fruit market and the world fruit market are integrated, but this integration turns out to be one way leading effect, which means the world fruit price has leading effect on Chinese domestic fruit price, while on contrary, Chinese domestic fruit price has not leading effect on world fruit price. Besides, this model is employed to research the leading effect of world crude oil price, world grain price, growth of domestic retail sales, relative money supply, exchange of RMB to dollars and the incremental of foreign exchange reserves on producer's and retailer's price of fruit though supply channel, demand channel and finance channel.
(6) The survive function model is employed to analyze the risk character of volatility of orange price. Several conclusions are came up from the research.Firstly,the continuous rise and fall of orange price in China obey the Weibull distribution,that is,the rate of the continuous rise(fall) of the orange price makes the survive time of the continuous rise(fall) of the orange price lessen.Secondly,the survive time of the continuous rise is less than that of the continuous fall;Thirdly,the probability of rise converting to fall is higher than that of fall converting to rise.On these conclusions,a cause which results as the above fluctuation features is put forward,that is the sellers being nervous about the price fall in the buyer's marketis.
(7) Setting a range between the rate of inflation and increasing rate of income of persons in cities as a reasonable range of the volatility wide of fruit retailer's price, then in the38quarters from the first quarter in2004to the second quarter in2013, there are22quarters are not in this reasonable range, which means the volatility of fruit price is abnormal over half of the quarters. This thesis deduces the regulation on fruit market has problems as follows:the regulation on fruit market is lack of subsidy; several bureaus are conducting regulatory policies at the same time; it is lack of systematical and efficient information platform; the subsidy for the circulation does not make any effect; the regulation measures on price rise and price fall are not symmetric. On referring the regulation experiences of agricultural products from America, Japan, Europe, India and Saudi Arabia, this thesis points out that the regulatory policy system of fruit price should be constructed on the principle of market regulation and considerate aspects such as supply management, demand conduction, circulation management and price insurance.
There are four innovations in this thesis as follows:
(1)Construsting a systematic model of supple-price-demand to simulate the endogenous process and based which to study the formation factors of fruit price. The existing literatrues trend to employed single equation model to study the price formation and treat supply and demand as exogeny which are immune from price, so stuies which treat supply and demand as endogeny to put them in to the pric formation system are little. This thesis pays attention to fruit price, and treat fruit price, supply and demand as endogeny to sumulate the automatic formation progess of fruit price. It comes up that factors such as the unit yield, import, per capita income, level of urbaniliztion,population, expected price and substitute price all influenzes the formation of fruit price. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price formation.
(2)Employing an automatic threshold model to study the vertical transmission of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to assume the linearity of vertical transmission of fruit price, while could not comfirm the existing of linearity. Employing an threshold model of automatic correction, this thesis studies the transmission between producer's price and retailer's price of apple, banana and watermelon and confirms the nonlinearity and threshold effect of the price transmission. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price vertical transmission.
(3)Employing a spatial econometric model to study the spatial transmission of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to study the spatial transmission of price using traditional econometric model which ignores the spatial dependence's influence on spatial transmission of price.This thesis studies the spatial transmission of apple price, citrus price and banana price among30provinces(excluding Tibert) using a spatial econometric model and comes up that there is spatial spillover effect of reginal transmission of fruit price in China. There probably are some innovaions on researches of price spatial transmission.
(4)Using a survival analysis model to study the volatility risk of fruit price. The existing literatures trend to study the volatility risk of price using linear models and little nonlinear models. Setting orange price as an example, this thesis studies the volatility risk of orange price using a survival analysis model and comes up that the survival time of continuous rise(continuous fall) is a nonincreasing function of the rate of continuous rise(continuous fall). There probably are some innovaions on the research method.
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