长白山火山爆发引发崩塌滑坡的预测研究
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摘要
长白山火山是一座有潜在喷发危险的处于休眠状态的活火山，火山爆发引起崩塌、滑坡灾害。论文依托于由中国地质科学院承担的国土资源部公益性行业科研专项-“长白山火山监测与现今活动性研究”（项目编号：201211095）中的吉林大学协助承担的子课题专题“长白山火山喷发次生灾害预警研究”（项目编号：201211095-6），在搜集、整理了已有资料的基础上，对资料进行了充分的分析，对研究区崩滑体的破坏机理及易发程度进行分析与评价。
文中将火山爆发引起的震动换算成地震烈度，采用地震烈度衰减公式，对研究区按地震烈度分为3度~8度几个不同的区域，选取了合理的崩滑体分类方法，将研究区的崩滑体整理、分类，采用离散元UDEC对崩滑体在火山地震作用下的运动特征、变形破坏机理进行了充分的分析与评价。基于可拓学理论及多元非线性回归分析法对崩滑体的易发程度进行分区，与专家评判法及实地灾情进行对比后，对该区崩滑体在火山地震作用下的易发程度进行了分区评价。为今后该区的人工切坡以及崩滑体的防治提供了依据和技术支撑。
The volcanic eruption is the most spectacular natural landscape, and also a kindof disaster. Each time the volcanic eruption caused a mass of casualties, and financialloss. Aboundant cinerite and smoke enter atmosphere layer, make the climaticanomaly. And the volcanic earthquake caused collapse, landslied, debris flow, tsunamiand such secondary disaster. the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic is one of the mostfamouse volcanic. The monitor data shows that the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanicearthquake activity very low before2002.7, averagely no more than30volcanicearthquake by the month, and the earthquake magnitude was also lower. Since2002.7till now, the seismic activity obviously enhanced, and the frequency and earthquakemagnitude ascending year by year. The seismologist consider that all the volcanic hasa intensive seismic activity below or around the volcanic before eruption. Now, theChangbaishan Tianchi is a famouse tourist attraction in our country, so the humanactivity is very intense. The artificial slope is very aboundant, collapse and landsliedfrequent happens, especially under the earthquake condition, thus immediate threatthe human life safety, cause the building and property damage.
The paper supported by the task of ‘prediction research of secondary disastercaused by volcanic eruption in Changbai mountains’ undertaken by Jilin University,summarized the research status of secondary disaster caused by volcanic eruption.Based on the field survey and historical materials, use the seismic intensityattenuation formula to part the reserch area by seismic intensity. And choose thereasonable slumped mass sorting technique to sort the slumped mass in reserch area.Based on the failure mechanism, the slumped mass could be divided into shatter-slide,shatter-topple and fall, shatter-fall, shatter-transpression fall. The paper use thediscrete element method and UDEC to analysis and evaluation the motion feature andmechanism of deformation and failure of the slumped mass. Based on the extenics theory and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis to divide and evaluation theprone degree under nature condition. Compared with experts evaluating and the actualsituation, the method is reasonable and the result is truthfulness. The choosed factorscould reflect the current situation of slumped mass. The partition and evaluation couldprovide technical support for the construction and treatment of the slumped mass infuture. The mainly conclusion as follow:
(1) Since2002.7, the the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic earthquake seismicactivity obviously enhanced, and all can be defined as volcanic tectonic earthquake.Based on the intensity attenuation formula, the seismic intensity could be divided intosix area as3-8degree.
(2)The research area totally have246collapse and34landslide. Based on theexisting slumped mass classify and the growth characteristics of slumped mass, it isdivided into entirety, massive, stratiform, block crack, fragmentation and repose.Based on the different lithology, it can be subdivided into clastic rocks, carbonatite,crystalline rock, metamorphic rocks and such combination kinds. Based on thestatistics, the slumped mass in research area mainly are massive, and the lithologymainly are crystalline rock formed by volcano eruption. Manual slope, unloading andrainfall is the mainly reason for the fracture and massive formation.
(3) Through the analysis and statistics of slumped mass in research area, themain effect factions are slope toe elevation, gradient, slope height, slope shape,formation lithology, microrelief, structure of rock mass, annual precipitation,earthquake and human activity.
(4)It is important to choose the damp, constitutive model, time step, size of meshopening, earthquake load, and boundary conditions in the simulation of discreteelement method and UDEC. It can help to build the model, promote the coincidencedegree of simulated result and deformation. The mechanism of deformation andfailure by discrete element method and UDEC can give expression to the influencefactors as gradient, slope height, crack, earthquake and lithology.
(5)Based on the discrete element method and UDEC to simulate the destructionprocess of slumped mass effected by volcanic earthquake, and the destruction processis volcanic earthquake-stress-strain readjustment-lengthways fracture development-rock mass transformation under press-rock mass in slope toe, and so developed intoexpansion-fall, expansion-transpression fall, expansion-topple and fall such kindcollapse. And volcanic earthquake-stress-strain readjustment-lengthways fracturedevelopment-rock mass transformation under press-shatter by consequent fissure surface-landslide.
(6)Use the Rosetta software to reduct and choose the factors as Slope toeelevation, formation lithology, gradient, slope shape, structure of rock mass, averagerainfall, and human activity. The reducted factors can reflect the stability of slumpedmass in changbai mountains. It can be used in the nonlinear prone degree evaluation.
(7) Use the rough set theory to rank the importance of factors, and use themodified AHP to solve the weight. The weight can reflect the factors effect for theprone degree evaluation of slumped mass, and avoild the tradition AHP defect, tomake the weight more impersonality.
(8) To compare the extenics results, expert grading method results, and fieldsurvey result, the results basiclly fit. So, the nonlinearity method has a wellapplicability in slumped mass prone degree evaluation. The result is reasonable andimpersonality, scientificity and practical significance.
(9)Use the extenics theory to foretcast the prone degree of slumped mass causedby volcanic earthquake, and divide the research area into high susceptible area,middle susceptible area, low susceptible area, and none susceptible area. The resultshows that the slope prone degree can be enhanced1-2degree. And the more closedto focus, the more unstability slope will be. The volcanic earthquake enhanced thedegree of unstability of slumped mass.
(10) Use the nonlinear regression to evaluate the slumped mass, and to comparethe result with extenics theory and expert grading method, the results basiclly fit. Thelinear dependence of variable is outstanding. The explain degree of independentvariable to dependent variable is high, the variation caused by independent variableoccupy83.1%of the total variation. So the observation point is intensive around theregression line, and the simulation is very good. The factors such as formationlithology, gradient, slope height, structure of rock mass, annual precipitation andhuman activity has obviouslly effect for the prone degree of slumped mass. The slopetoe elevation and slope shape has less effect for the prone degree of slumped mass.That means the considered factors in discrete element method and UDEC has a highereffection of the model, and the simulated multivariate nonlinear regression equation.
文中将火山爆发引起的震动换算成地震烈度，采用地震烈度衰减公式，对研究区按地震烈度分为3度~8度几个不同的区域，选取了合理的崩滑体分类方法，将研究区的崩滑体整理、分类，采用离散元UDEC对崩滑体在火山地震作用下的运动特征、变形破坏机理进行了充分的分析与评价。基于可拓学理论及多元非线性回归分析法对崩滑体的易发程度进行分区，与专家评判法及实地灾情进行对比后，对该区崩滑体在火山地震作用下的易发程度进行了分区评价。为今后该区的人工切坡以及崩滑体的防治提供了依据和技术支撑。
The volcanic eruption is the most spectacular natural landscape, and also a kindof disaster. Each time the volcanic eruption caused a mass of casualties, and financialloss. Aboundant cinerite and smoke enter atmosphere layer, make the climaticanomaly. And the volcanic earthquake caused collapse, landslied, debris flow, tsunamiand such secondary disaster. the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic is one of the mostfamouse volcanic. The monitor data shows that the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanicearthquake activity very low before2002.7, averagely no more than30volcanicearthquake by the month, and the earthquake magnitude was also lower. Since2002.7till now, the seismic activity obviously enhanced, and the frequency and earthquakemagnitude ascending year by year. The seismologist consider that all the volcanic hasa intensive seismic activity below or around the volcanic before eruption. Now, theChangbaishan Tianchi is a famouse tourist attraction in our country, so the humanactivity is very intense. The artificial slope is very aboundant, collapse and landsliedfrequent happens, especially under the earthquake condition, thus immediate threatthe human life safety, cause the building and property damage.
The paper supported by the task of ‘prediction research of secondary disastercaused by volcanic eruption in Changbai mountains’ undertaken by Jilin University,summarized the research status of secondary disaster caused by volcanic eruption.Based on the field survey and historical materials, use the seismic intensityattenuation formula to part the reserch area by seismic intensity. And choose thereasonable slumped mass sorting technique to sort the slumped mass in reserch area.Based on the failure mechanism, the slumped mass could be divided into shatter-slide,shatter-topple and fall, shatter-fall, shatter-transpression fall. The paper use thediscrete element method and UDEC to analysis and evaluation the motion feature andmechanism of deformation and failure of the slumped mass. Based on the extenics theory and multivariate nonlinear regression analysis to divide and evaluation theprone degree under nature condition. Compared with experts evaluating and the actualsituation, the method is reasonable and the result is truthfulness. The choosed factorscould reflect the current situation of slumped mass. The partition and evaluation couldprovide technical support for the construction and treatment of the slumped mass infuture. The mainly conclusion as follow:
(1) Since2002.7, the the Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic earthquake seismicactivity obviously enhanced, and all can be defined as volcanic tectonic earthquake.Based on the intensity attenuation formula, the seismic intensity could be divided intosix area as3-8degree.
(2)The research area totally have246collapse and34landslide. Based on theexisting slumped mass classify and the growth characteristics of slumped mass, it isdivided into entirety, massive, stratiform, block crack, fragmentation and repose.Based on the different lithology, it can be subdivided into clastic rocks, carbonatite,crystalline rock, metamorphic rocks and such combination kinds. Based on thestatistics, the slumped mass in research area mainly are massive, and the lithologymainly are crystalline rock formed by volcano eruption. Manual slope, unloading andrainfall is the mainly reason for the fracture and massive formation.
(3) Through the analysis and statistics of slumped mass in research area, themain effect factions are slope toe elevation, gradient, slope height, slope shape,formation lithology, microrelief, structure of rock mass, annual precipitation,earthquake and human activity.
(4)It is important to choose the damp, constitutive model, time step, size of meshopening, earthquake load, and boundary conditions in the simulation of discreteelement method and UDEC. It can help to build the model, promote the coincidencedegree of simulated result and deformation. The mechanism of deformation andfailure by discrete element method and UDEC can give expression to the influencefactors as gradient, slope height, crack, earthquake and lithology.
(5)Based on the discrete element method and UDEC to simulate the destructionprocess of slumped mass effected by volcanic earthquake, and the destruction processis volcanic earthquake-stress-strain readjustment-lengthways fracture development-rock mass transformation under press-rock mass in slope toe, and so developed intoexpansion-fall, expansion-transpression fall, expansion-topple and fall such kindcollapse. And volcanic earthquake-stress-strain readjustment-lengthways fracturedevelopment-rock mass transformation under press-shatter by consequent fissure surface-landslide.
(6)Use the Rosetta software to reduct and choose the factors as Slope toeelevation, formation lithology, gradient, slope shape, structure of rock mass, averagerainfall, and human activity. The reducted factors can reflect the stability of slumpedmass in changbai mountains. It can be used in the nonlinear prone degree evaluation.
(7) Use the rough set theory to rank the importance of factors, and use themodified AHP to solve the weight. The weight can reflect the factors effect for theprone degree evaluation of slumped mass, and avoild the tradition AHP defect, tomake the weight more impersonality.
(8) To compare the extenics results, expert grading method results, and fieldsurvey result, the results basiclly fit. So, the nonlinearity method has a wellapplicability in slumped mass prone degree evaluation. The result is reasonable andimpersonality, scientificity and practical significance.
(9)Use the extenics theory to foretcast the prone degree of slumped mass causedby volcanic earthquake, and divide the research area into high susceptible area,middle susceptible area, low susceptible area, and none susceptible area. The resultshows that the slope prone degree can be enhanced1-2degree. And the more closedto focus, the more unstability slope will be. The volcanic earthquake enhanced thedegree of unstability of slumped mass.
(10) Use the nonlinear regression to evaluate the slumped mass, and to comparethe result with extenics theory and expert grading method, the results basiclly fit. Thelinear dependence of variable is outstanding. The explain degree of independentvariable to dependent variable is high, the variation caused by independent variableoccupy83.1%of the total variation. So the observation point is intensive around theregression line, and the simulation is very good. The factors such as formationlithology, gradient, slope height, structure of rock mass, annual precipitation andhuman activity has obviouslly effect for the prone degree of slumped mass. The slopetoe elevation and slope shape has less effect for the prone degree of slumped mass.That means the considered factors in discrete element method and UDEC has a highereffection of the model, and the simulated multivariate nonlinear regression equation.
引文
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