我国水禽产业布局优化与发展的实证研究
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摘要
我国是世界上最大的水禽生产国与消费国,水禽产业市场前景非常广阔。目前我国水禽生产遍布全国各省、自治区、直辖市,产业布局散乱,规模差异很大,呈多而弱的趋势,伴随着无序、无规律性的散乱扩张,将不利于生态环境的可持续发展,导致低水平、薄利润、小规模的重复扩张,有损水禽产业的合理化布局,影响整个水禽产业的发展。
本文通过对我国水禽产业布局优化与发展的研究,可以更全面、系统、根本的把握我国水禽产业布局与发展所存在的问题及如何科学的规划水禽产业及如何成功实施相关的产业政策；有利于引导当地产业合理、健康、有序的发展；有利于节约大量的原料和产品运输费用、能源损耗及物流管理等成本；有利于更好的实现水禽产业的低碳经济,加强区域的自然环境保护,保障水禽产品的质量安全；有利于政府进行宏观调控,为加强食品安全监控与保障政策的实施提供理论依据,同时也为掌握水禽产业市场信息与做出市场决策提供参考；另外在提供就业岗位,增加农民收入、改善人们饮食结构,丰富饮食文化生活方面发挥着巨大的作用。
鉴于此,论文以产业区位理论、产业布局与开发理论、新经济地理学理论、环境生态学理论为基础理论指导,对我国水禽产业的布局与发展进行了定性与定量的研究分析,回答了我国水禽产业布局与发展的现况、历史演变,回答了全国区域水禽产业布局对产业竞争力、市场波动、环境保护的影响,对未来全国区域水禽产业发展作出了科学的计量预测,论证了我国水禽产业布局的形成,分析了影响产业布局的影响因素及关联度状况,最终提出了全国水禽产业布局与发展的总体战略与分项战略,并对战略的如何实施提出了详细的政策建议。具体如下：
首先,采用文献资料查阅法、归纳分析法与比较分析法对我国水禽产业布局与发展的特点、问题等做了分析,将我国水禽产业的发展与布局的形成及演变的过程分为四个时期：一是新中国成立至1978年----计划经济背景下的缓慢增长期；二是1979-1989年—改革开放背景下的的积累与快速发展期；三是1990年-2005年—农业产业化背景下的快速发展期；四是2006年以来禽流感疫情背景下的稳步增长与动荡期。
其次,采用主成分分析法、VAR模型法、格兰杰检验、方差效应、脉冲响应及比较分析法,从产业竞争力、市场波动、环境保护三个角度分析了水禽产业的现有布局对其发展的影响。结果表明：在现有的产业格局下,一在产业竞争力方面,水禽产业区域竞争力呈极化发展并且在区域圈上有愈来愈集中的趋势；水禽产业区域发展很不平衡,区域竞争力差异较大；水禽产业区域竞争力整体水平不高,有待提升；整体水禽产业的支撑能力较强,体现出水禽产业较高的发展潜力。二在市场波动方面,我国水禽市场价格的剧烈波动受水禽产肉量、水禽出栏量、国内生产总值、猪肉价格、鸡肉价格、玉米价格、市场利率等因素的影响,且影响的程度与方向不尽相同；水禽产业相对猪肉、鸡肉等家畜家禽产业还比较弱小,还需要政府区别对待,给予更多优惠保护。三在环境保护方面,现有产业格局下,水禽污染整体现状较差,养殖者生态生产意识欠缺,环境污染防治意识薄弱,不同水禽生产区域对水禽环保的要求程度不同,不同水禽生产区域的生产模式对水禽环保的影响不同。
再者,利用综合预测法对我国水禽产业(肉鸭、蛋鸭、鹅)做了深度预测,并在此基础上对全国各主产区域的产业发展做了详细的计量分析。结果表明：从全国范围来看,一、肉鸭--未来出栏量将会下降,减幅约3%,肉鸭价格短期内会小幅增加,养殖企业、农户将会更加谨慎地规避风险,未来出栏量将会进一步下降,预计出栏量减幅约1.4%。二、鹅---未来鹅的存栏量、产肉量都相比2013年有较大幅度增长,鹅肉价格也有较大增幅。三、蛋鸭---2013的人患H7N9禽流感导致蛋鸭添栏期推迟两个月,从而导致未来蛋鸭出栏量会有所下降,但是存栏量和2013年相比会有所提升,预计未来蛋鸭产蛋量将相对稳定。四、水禽总体--我国水禽产业发展比较稳定,规模保持在1200万吨附近。从区域范围来看,一方面我国水禽产业南方区域较强,北方省份区域产业实力较弱,北方水禽主要产区只有8个省(市)区,而南方水禽主要产区却有13个省(市)区,在产业市场规模方面,北方市场占据了近46%份额,生产出约395万吨的产品,而南方区域占据近54%的市场份额,其肉蛋产出是北方的2.12倍。另一方面在经济区域类型上我国水禽产业水禽市场份额按强弱次序分别是环渤海地区、珠三角地区、长三角地区、东北地区、西三角地区；按照单位产量规模水平来说,分别依次是长三角地区、珠三角地区、环渤海地区、东北地区、西三角地区。
再者,一方面利用主成分分析法分析了区域水禽产业的综合竞争力水平,确定了各水禽主产区域的总体实力,将我国水禽产业分成五大区域：分别是珠三角区域包括广东、福建、海南、江西、湖南、广西地区,长三角区域包括上海、浙江、江苏、安徽、湖北,环渤海区域包括北京、山东、内蒙古、辽宁、河北、河南,东北区域包括黑龙江、吉林、辽宁,西三角区域包括重庆、四川地区及水禽产业市场刚兴起的西北地区。另一方面利用区位商与市场份额指标法详细分析了肉鸭、蛋鸭、鹅的区域专业化水平情况,提出现有水禽产业布局的核心产业圈与区域类型分布特征：关于肉鸭的山东、广东、江苏三大核心产业圈与高区位商、高市场份额的A类区域(江苏、山东、广东、广西),高区位商、低市场份额的B类(海南、重庆、北京),低区位商、高市场份额的C类(四川、湖南、河南、辽宁),低区位商、低市场份额D类(其余地区)；关于鹅的广东、辽宁、江苏三大鹅核心产业圈与A区(广东、江苏、辽宁、黑龙江)、B区(上海、江西、山东、海南、重庆)、C区(四川、湖南、吉林)、D区(其余地区)；关于蛋鸭的鄂湘与浙闽两大蛋鸭核心产业圈及与A区(浙江、福建、湖北、湖南)、B区(上海、重庆)、C区(四川、安徽)、D区(其余地区)。
然后,利用斯皮尔曼实证分析法从综合竞争力、区位商、市场份额三个角度对我国水禽产业分布的区域专业化水平差异及其影响因素进行了分析,对决定水禽产业布局的因素与影响专业化水平差异因素的相关性及相关程度进行了论证。结果表明,综合竞争力与区域水资源条件、经济发展水平、产业规模、科技投入、产业化经营水平均有正相关性,其中竞争力水平与科技投入、产业化经营水平之间的相关性最大；肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭的区位商、市场份额与水资源、GDP水平、产业规模、科技投入、产业化经营水平之间的相关性成立,其中蛋鸭更加依赖于水资源条件,鹅的区位商、市场份额与GDP、区位商之间的相关性最大,肉鸭的区位商、市场份额与GDP之间的相关性最大,肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭的区位商、市场份额与产业化水平之间的相关性都较大。
最后,论文提出我国水禽产业整体布局应遵循五大经济圈分布策略,重点围绕珠三角、长三角、环渤海、东北、西三角等五大水禽产业经济圈来规划全国的水禽布局与发展。另外,在总体策略的基础上,我国水禽产业的细分为三大分类策略,分别是基于肉鸭的“三圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略、基于鹅的“三圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略、基于蛋鸭的“两圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略。在水禽产业发展中,除了加强各自核心产业圈系统发展之外,还应当加强对B类、C类区域的扶持,使其向高级区域转化,同时对D类区域实施选择性的发展策略,培育特色竞争力,以提升水禽产业的整体水平。论文针对水禽总体策略提出：合理进行全国的产业布局,避免低水平、无效率的重复建设；产业布局中要突出区域优势、特色,因地制宜；既要善于利用工业化发展的优势,又要注重环境保护,要走可持续发展道路；制定行业标准和规范,保证产业发展有章可循；加强对相关替代品行业的市场监控,建立灵活的市场反应体系；引导产业发展的技术进步与更新,提升技术竞争力；以人为本,积极培育水禽产业人才及强化人才流通机制；完善区域间合作、学习机制与先进技术的推广与普及机制等政策建议。针对分项策略中肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭布局的核心产业圈与四大区域,分别针对性的从培养产业增长极,加强科技投入、促进产业化经营、合理调整产业规模与加快产业链的延伸和与拓展,积极培养自身的特色竞争优势与加强区域间合作等方面提出了政策建议。
China is the largest country in production and consumption of waterfowl, the prospect of waterfowl industry market is very broad.At present,waterfowl production is all over the country provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government.Industrial layout is scattered, the difference about scal is very big, take on a multiple and weak trend,expanded as scattered, no regularity in disorder,which will be conducive to the sustainable development of ecological environment,lead to low levels, thin profits, small-scale repeat expansion.Beneath the rationalisation of waterfowl industry, influence the development of the whole waterfowl industry.This article through to the research to the layout optimization and development of waterfowl industry in China, we can grasp of the fundamental problem of waterfowl industrial layout and the development more comprehensively and systematicly and how to plan waterfowl industry and how to successfully implement the relevant industrial policy.Conducive to guide a rational, healthy and orderly development of local industry,save raw materials and product transportation costs, energy dissipation and logistics management costs,realize the waterfowl industry in low carbon economy, strengthen regional natural environment protection, ensure the safety of waterfowl product quality,make government carry on the macroeconomic regulation and control and strengthen food safety monitoring and provide the theory basis for the implementation of the security policy, easily grasp the waterfowl industry market information and provide reference to make market decisions.In addition to provide jobs, increase farmers' income, which can improve people's diet structure, rich food culture life play a huge role.
So, the paper based on the industrial location theory, industrial layout and development theory, environmental ecology theory, made some qualitative and quantitative analysis, made detailed answer about the layout of waterfowl industry in China and the development present situation, historical evolution, and answered the impacts between the layout of industrial and national regional competitiveness, market volatility, social, economic and natural environmental protection, made he scientific measurement prediction, planned the formation of the layout,analyzed the influence factors and the correlation.Finally the article putted forward the country's overall strategy and itemized strategy about the waterfowl industry layout and development,and how to carry out detailed policy Suggestions. Specific as follows:
First of all, using the method of literature review, inductive analysis and comparative analysis, the article makes analysis on the characteristics and problemsof waterfowl industry layout and development in China. The evolution of waterfowl industry in China can be divided into four periods:First is the founding of new China to1978, the weak growth time under the background of planned economy; second is during the time of1979-1989, the accumulation and rapid development time under the background of reform and opening up; Third is during the time of1990-2005,agricultural industrialization time under the background of rapid development; Fourth is the steady growth and volatility time under the background of avian flu since2006.
Secondly, using the method of principal component analysis, VAR model, granger test and effect, impulse response and variance analysis,From three Angle:the industry competitiveness, market volatility, environmental protection, the article makes a analysis of the current industrial structure to the waterfowl industry development. Results show that:under the existing industrial structure, regional competitiveness in polarization waterfowl industry and is more and more focused on regional circle trend; Waterfowl industry in regional development is not balanced, differences is bigger in regional competitiveness; regional competitiveness overall level is not high; industry support ability is stronger.In terms of market volatility, the waterfowl market price volatility is affected by waterfowl, waterfowl such amount, GDP, chicken, pork price price, the price of corn, the influence of factors such as market interest rates, and the influence of degree and direction is different; Waterfowl industry is weaker relatively pork, chicken and other poultry livestock industry, needs the government to give more preferential protection. Under the existing industrial structure, waterfowl overall pollution status is poorer, the farmers are lack of consciousness, ecological production environment pollution prevention consciousness is weak, varying waterfowl production area of waterfowl environmental protection requirements are different, different waterfowl production areas of production mode to environmental effects is different.
Moreover, the article does the depth prediction about flesh duck, pathogenies, goose, advocates econometric analysis in detail using the method of comprehensive prediction.The results show that:from the nationwide, to meat-duck,future market will be decreased, the damping is about3%, price in the short term will increase slightly, farming enterprises, farmers will be more careful to avoid risk, amount of the future market will fall further, about1.4%is expected. To geese,the scale will have a substantial increase compared with the2013, goose meat prices also have bigger growth. To egg-meat,H7N9in2013will cause a delay of pathogenies add column for two months and lead to the fall in future market, but Cun Lan Liang compared to2013will be improved, in the next pathogenies egg production will be relatively stable. To waterfowl overall-waterfowl industry development is more stable in our country, the scale keeps near12million tons. From regional scale, on the one hand, the southern region is stronger, the southern waterfowl main production has13provinces (city) area, the market share is nearly54%, 2.12times of the north output of meat and eggs,the north accounted for nearly46%market share, produce about3.95million tons of products.On the other hand,based on the regional economic type,waterfowl waterfowl industry market share according to the pecking order is bohai sea area, the pearl river delta, Yangtze river delta region, the northeast region, west river delta; According to the unit of production scale, respectively, in turn, is the Yangtze river delta, the pearl river delta, bohai sea region, northeast region, west triangle.
Moreover, on the one hand, the article analyzes the regional comprehensive competitiveness level of waterfowl industry using pea, determine the overall strength of the waterfowl, which can be divided into five areas:the pearl river delta area including guang dong, fu jian, hai nan, jiang xi, hu nan, guang xi region, Yangtze river delta area including Shanghai, zhe jiang, jiang su, an hui, hu bei, bo hai sea region including Beijing, shan dong, Inner Mongolia, liao ning, he bei, he nan, including hei long jiang, ji lin, liao ning, northeast China west triangle area including chong qing, si chuan province and northwest which market has emerged.On the other hand, the article analyzed the pecialization level in detail of meat-duck,egg-duck, goose, putting forward the core of waterfowl industry layout industrial circle and the regional distribution type.To meat-duck,formating (shan dong, guang dong, jiang su) three core business circle with (high location quotient, high market share)class A region (jiang su, shan dong, guang dong, guang xi),(High location quotient, low market share) class B (hai nan,chong qing, Beijing),(low location quotient, high market share) class C (si chuan, hu nan, he nan, liao ning),(low location quotient and low market share)class D (the rest areas);To goose,formating (guang dong, liao ning, jiang su)three core industrial circle and The four regional types:the area A(guang dong, jiang su, liao ning, hei long jiang), B (Shanghai, jiang xi, shan dong, hai nan, chong qing), C (si chuan, hu nan, ji lin), D (the rest); to egg-duck, formating (hu bei and hu nan and zhe jiang fu jian)two core business circle and and The four regional types:the area A (zhe jiang, fu jian, hu bei, hu nan), B (Shang hai, chong qing),C (si chuan, an hui), D (the rest).
Then, from the angles of comprehensive competitiveness, location quotient, market share by spearman empirical analysis, the article makes a analysis of the regional specialization level difference and its influence factors of distribution of waterfowl industry, and prove the key factors of waterfowl industry layout and correlation factors and the related degree influencing the specialization level difference.The results showed that:the comprehensive competitiveness has a positive correlation with regional water resource conditions, economic development level, the industrial scale, the investment in science and technology, and the industrialization level a, the competitive level has a bigger correlation with investment in science and technology, dustrialization level; the location quotient, market share of meat-duck, goose, egg-duck have a positive correlation with water resources, the level of GDP, the industrial scale, investment in science and technology,, the egg-duck is more dependent on the water resources conditions.The location quotient and market share of the goose has a bigger correlation with GDP and investment in science and technology, The location quotient and market share of the meat-duck, goose, egg-duck have a bigger correlation with industrialization level.
Finally, the paper puts forward the overall layout of waterfowl industry in China,which should follow the five economic circle distribution strategy, mainly around the pearl river delta, Yangtze river delta, bohai sea, northeast, west triangle economic circle to plan the national waterfowl layout. In addition, on the basis of the overall strategies, the tactics subdivided into three major categories of waterfowl industry in China, are the "three times"and"four types " strategy of meat-duck,"three circle" and "four types "strategy of goose,"two ring"and"four types " strategy of egg-duck.During the development of waterfowl industry, in addition to strengthen their core business circle system development, also should strengthen the support of class B and class C area, make it to the senior regional transformation, as well as the taking on development strategies for implementation of selective class D area, cultivating characteristic competitiveness, to enhance the overall level of waterfowl industry.The study put forward:rational for the country's industry layout, avoiding low, inefficient repetitive construction; highlighting the characteristics of regional advantages, industry layout, adjusting measures to local conditions, using the advantages of industrialization development, and paying attention to environmental protection and sustainable development; Formulating industry standards and norms, rules; To strengthen the market monitoring of relevant alternatives to trade, establishing a flexible market reaction system; Guiding the industry development of technological progress and updating, promoting the competitiveness of the technology; Advocating People-oriented, actively cultivating the waterfowl industry personnel and strengthening the personnel flow mechanism; to improve the mechanism of regional cooperation, learning, and mechanisms of promotion and the popularization of advanced technology and so on.For breakdown strategy, the raticle respectively from Eight aspects:training according to the specific industry growth pole, and strengthen science and technology investment, promote the industrialization, the reasonable adjustment of industry scale and the development and speed up the extension of industry chain and actively cultivate its own characteristics of the competitive advantage and strengthen regional cooperation, propose policy Suggestions,
本文通过对我国水禽产业布局优化与发展的研究,可以更全面、系统、根本的把握我国水禽产业布局与发展所存在的问题及如何科学的规划水禽产业及如何成功实施相关的产业政策；有利于引导当地产业合理、健康、有序的发展；有利于节约大量的原料和产品运输费用、能源损耗及物流管理等成本；有利于更好的实现水禽产业的低碳经济,加强区域的自然环境保护,保障水禽产品的质量安全；有利于政府进行宏观调控,为加强食品安全监控与保障政策的实施提供理论依据,同时也为掌握水禽产业市场信息与做出市场决策提供参考；另外在提供就业岗位,增加农民收入、改善人们饮食结构,丰富饮食文化生活方面发挥着巨大的作用。
鉴于此,论文以产业区位理论、产业布局与开发理论、新经济地理学理论、环境生态学理论为基础理论指导,对我国水禽产业的布局与发展进行了定性与定量的研究分析,回答了我国水禽产业布局与发展的现况、历史演变,回答了全国区域水禽产业布局对产业竞争力、市场波动、环境保护的影响,对未来全国区域水禽产业发展作出了科学的计量预测,论证了我国水禽产业布局的形成,分析了影响产业布局的影响因素及关联度状况,最终提出了全国水禽产业布局与发展的总体战略与分项战略,并对战略的如何实施提出了详细的政策建议。具体如下：
首先,采用文献资料查阅法、归纳分析法与比较分析法对我国水禽产业布局与发展的特点、问题等做了分析,将我国水禽产业的发展与布局的形成及演变的过程分为四个时期：一是新中国成立至1978年----计划经济背景下的缓慢增长期；二是1979-1989年—改革开放背景下的的积累与快速发展期；三是1990年-2005年—农业产业化背景下的快速发展期；四是2006年以来禽流感疫情背景下的稳步增长与动荡期。
其次,采用主成分分析法、VAR模型法、格兰杰检验、方差效应、脉冲响应及比较分析法,从产业竞争力、市场波动、环境保护三个角度分析了水禽产业的现有布局对其发展的影响。结果表明：在现有的产业格局下,一在产业竞争力方面,水禽产业区域竞争力呈极化发展并且在区域圈上有愈来愈集中的趋势；水禽产业区域发展很不平衡,区域竞争力差异较大；水禽产业区域竞争力整体水平不高,有待提升；整体水禽产业的支撑能力较强,体现出水禽产业较高的发展潜力。二在市场波动方面,我国水禽市场价格的剧烈波动受水禽产肉量、水禽出栏量、国内生产总值、猪肉价格、鸡肉价格、玉米价格、市场利率等因素的影响,且影响的程度与方向不尽相同；水禽产业相对猪肉、鸡肉等家畜家禽产业还比较弱小,还需要政府区别对待,给予更多优惠保护。三在环境保护方面,现有产业格局下,水禽污染整体现状较差,养殖者生态生产意识欠缺,环境污染防治意识薄弱,不同水禽生产区域对水禽环保的要求程度不同,不同水禽生产区域的生产模式对水禽环保的影响不同。
再者,利用综合预测法对我国水禽产业(肉鸭、蛋鸭、鹅)做了深度预测,并在此基础上对全国各主产区域的产业发展做了详细的计量分析。结果表明：从全国范围来看,一、肉鸭--未来出栏量将会下降,减幅约3%,肉鸭价格短期内会小幅增加,养殖企业、农户将会更加谨慎地规避风险,未来出栏量将会进一步下降,预计出栏量减幅约1.4%。二、鹅---未来鹅的存栏量、产肉量都相比2013年有较大幅度增长,鹅肉价格也有较大增幅。三、蛋鸭---2013的人患H7N9禽流感导致蛋鸭添栏期推迟两个月,从而导致未来蛋鸭出栏量会有所下降,但是存栏量和2013年相比会有所提升,预计未来蛋鸭产蛋量将相对稳定。四、水禽总体--我国水禽产业发展比较稳定,规模保持在1200万吨附近。从区域范围来看,一方面我国水禽产业南方区域较强,北方省份区域产业实力较弱,北方水禽主要产区只有8个省(市)区,而南方水禽主要产区却有13个省(市)区,在产业市场规模方面,北方市场占据了近46%份额,生产出约395万吨的产品,而南方区域占据近54%的市场份额,其肉蛋产出是北方的2.12倍。另一方面在经济区域类型上我国水禽产业水禽市场份额按强弱次序分别是环渤海地区、珠三角地区、长三角地区、东北地区、西三角地区；按照单位产量规模水平来说,分别依次是长三角地区、珠三角地区、环渤海地区、东北地区、西三角地区。
再者,一方面利用主成分分析法分析了区域水禽产业的综合竞争力水平,确定了各水禽主产区域的总体实力,将我国水禽产业分成五大区域：分别是珠三角区域包括广东、福建、海南、江西、湖南、广西地区,长三角区域包括上海、浙江、江苏、安徽、湖北,环渤海区域包括北京、山东、内蒙古、辽宁、河北、河南,东北区域包括黑龙江、吉林、辽宁,西三角区域包括重庆、四川地区及水禽产业市场刚兴起的西北地区。另一方面利用区位商与市场份额指标法详细分析了肉鸭、蛋鸭、鹅的区域专业化水平情况,提出现有水禽产业布局的核心产业圈与区域类型分布特征：关于肉鸭的山东、广东、江苏三大核心产业圈与高区位商、高市场份额的A类区域(江苏、山东、广东、广西),高区位商、低市场份额的B类(海南、重庆、北京),低区位商、高市场份额的C类(四川、湖南、河南、辽宁),低区位商、低市场份额D类(其余地区)；关于鹅的广东、辽宁、江苏三大鹅核心产业圈与A区(广东、江苏、辽宁、黑龙江)、B区(上海、江西、山东、海南、重庆)、C区(四川、湖南、吉林)、D区(其余地区)；关于蛋鸭的鄂湘与浙闽两大蛋鸭核心产业圈及与A区(浙江、福建、湖北、湖南)、B区(上海、重庆)、C区(四川、安徽)、D区(其余地区)。
然后,利用斯皮尔曼实证分析法从综合竞争力、区位商、市场份额三个角度对我国水禽产业分布的区域专业化水平差异及其影响因素进行了分析,对决定水禽产业布局的因素与影响专业化水平差异因素的相关性及相关程度进行了论证。结果表明,综合竞争力与区域水资源条件、经济发展水平、产业规模、科技投入、产业化经营水平均有正相关性,其中竞争力水平与科技投入、产业化经营水平之间的相关性最大；肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭的区位商、市场份额与水资源、GDP水平、产业规模、科技投入、产业化经营水平之间的相关性成立,其中蛋鸭更加依赖于水资源条件,鹅的区位商、市场份额与GDP、区位商之间的相关性最大,肉鸭的区位商、市场份额与GDP之间的相关性最大,肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭的区位商、市场份额与产业化水平之间的相关性都较大。
最后,论文提出我国水禽产业整体布局应遵循五大经济圈分布策略,重点围绕珠三角、长三角、环渤海、东北、西三角等五大水禽产业经济圈来规划全国的水禽布局与发展。另外,在总体策略的基础上,我国水禽产业的细分为三大分类策略,分别是基于肉鸭的“三圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略、基于鹅的“三圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略、基于蛋鸭的“两圈”、“四类”的大产业布局策略。在水禽产业发展中,除了加强各自核心产业圈系统发展之外,还应当加强对B类、C类区域的扶持,使其向高级区域转化,同时对D类区域实施选择性的发展策略,培育特色竞争力,以提升水禽产业的整体水平。论文针对水禽总体策略提出：合理进行全国的产业布局,避免低水平、无效率的重复建设；产业布局中要突出区域优势、特色,因地制宜；既要善于利用工业化发展的优势,又要注重环境保护,要走可持续发展道路；制定行业标准和规范,保证产业发展有章可循；加强对相关替代品行业的市场监控,建立灵活的市场反应体系；引导产业发展的技术进步与更新,提升技术竞争力；以人为本,积极培育水禽产业人才及强化人才流通机制；完善区域间合作、学习机制与先进技术的推广与普及机制等政策建议。针对分项策略中肉鸭、鹅、蛋鸭布局的核心产业圈与四大区域,分别针对性的从培养产业增长极,加强科技投入、促进产业化经营、合理调整产业规模与加快产业链的延伸和与拓展,积极培养自身的特色竞争优势与加强区域间合作等方面提出了政策建议。
China is the largest country in production and consumption of waterfowl, the prospect of waterfowl industry market is very broad.At present,waterfowl production is all over the country provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government.Industrial layout is scattered, the difference about scal is very big, take on a multiple and weak trend,expanded as scattered, no regularity in disorder,which will be conducive to the sustainable development of ecological environment,lead to low levels, thin profits, small-scale repeat expansion.Beneath the rationalisation of waterfowl industry, influence the development of the whole waterfowl industry.This article through to the research to the layout optimization and development of waterfowl industry in China, we can grasp of the fundamental problem of waterfowl industrial layout and the development more comprehensively and systematicly and how to plan waterfowl industry and how to successfully implement the relevant industrial policy.Conducive to guide a rational, healthy and orderly development of local industry,save raw materials and product transportation costs, energy dissipation and logistics management costs,realize the waterfowl industry in low carbon economy, strengthen regional natural environment protection, ensure the safety of waterfowl product quality,make government carry on the macroeconomic regulation and control and strengthen food safety monitoring and provide the theory basis for the implementation of the security policy, easily grasp the waterfowl industry market information and provide reference to make market decisions.In addition to provide jobs, increase farmers' income, which can improve people's diet structure, rich food culture life play a huge role.
So, the paper based on the industrial location theory, industrial layout and development theory, environmental ecology theory, made some qualitative and quantitative analysis, made detailed answer about the layout of waterfowl industry in China and the development present situation, historical evolution, and answered the impacts between the layout of industrial and national regional competitiveness, market volatility, social, economic and natural environmental protection, made he scientific measurement prediction, planned the formation of the layout,analyzed the influence factors and the correlation.Finally the article putted forward the country's overall strategy and itemized strategy about the waterfowl industry layout and development,and how to carry out detailed policy Suggestions. Specific as follows:
First of all, using the method of literature review, inductive analysis and comparative analysis, the article makes analysis on the characteristics and problemsof waterfowl industry layout and development in China. The evolution of waterfowl industry in China can be divided into four periods:First is the founding of new China to1978, the weak growth time under the background of planned economy; second is during the time of1979-1989, the accumulation and rapid development time under the background of reform and opening up; Third is during the time of1990-2005,agricultural industrialization time under the background of rapid development; Fourth is the steady growth and volatility time under the background of avian flu since2006.
Secondly, using the method of principal component analysis, VAR model, granger test and effect, impulse response and variance analysis,From three Angle:the industry competitiveness, market volatility, environmental protection, the article makes a analysis of the current industrial structure to the waterfowl industry development. Results show that:under the existing industrial structure, regional competitiveness in polarization waterfowl industry and is more and more focused on regional circle trend; Waterfowl industry in regional development is not balanced, differences is bigger in regional competitiveness; regional competitiveness overall level is not high; industry support ability is stronger.In terms of market volatility, the waterfowl market price volatility is affected by waterfowl, waterfowl such amount, GDP, chicken, pork price price, the price of corn, the influence of factors such as market interest rates, and the influence of degree and direction is different; Waterfowl industry is weaker relatively pork, chicken and other poultry livestock industry, needs the government to give more preferential protection. Under the existing industrial structure, waterfowl overall pollution status is poorer, the farmers are lack of consciousness, ecological production environment pollution prevention consciousness is weak, varying waterfowl production area of waterfowl environmental protection requirements are different, different waterfowl production areas of production mode to environmental effects is different.
Moreover, the article does the depth prediction about flesh duck, pathogenies, goose, advocates econometric analysis in detail using the method of comprehensive prediction.The results show that:from the nationwide, to meat-duck,future market will be decreased, the damping is about3%, price in the short term will increase slightly, farming enterprises, farmers will be more careful to avoid risk, amount of the future market will fall further, about1.4%is expected. To geese,the scale will have a substantial increase compared with the2013, goose meat prices also have bigger growth. To egg-meat,H7N9in2013will cause a delay of pathogenies add column for two months and lead to the fall in future market, but Cun Lan Liang compared to2013will be improved, in the next pathogenies egg production will be relatively stable. To waterfowl overall-waterfowl industry development is more stable in our country, the scale keeps near12million tons. From regional scale, on the one hand, the southern region is stronger, the southern waterfowl main production has13provinces (city) area, the market share is nearly54%, 2.12times of the north output of meat and eggs,the north accounted for nearly46%market share, produce about3.95million tons of products.On the other hand,based on the regional economic type,waterfowl waterfowl industry market share according to the pecking order is bohai sea area, the pearl river delta, Yangtze river delta region, the northeast region, west river delta; According to the unit of production scale, respectively, in turn, is the Yangtze river delta, the pearl river delta, bohai sea region, northeast region, west triangle.
Moreover, on the one hand, the article analyzes the regional comprehensive competitiveness level of waterfowl industry using pea, determine the overall strength of the waterfowl, which can be divided into five areas:the pearl river delta area including guang dong, fu jian, hai nan, jiang xi, hu nan, guang xi region, Yangtze river delta area including Shanghai, zhe jiang, jiang su, an hui, hu bei, bo hai sea region including Beijing, shan dong, Inner Mongolia, liao ning, he bei, he nan, including hei long jiang, ji lin, liao ning, northeast China west triangle area including chong qing, si chuan province and northwest which market has emerged.On the other hand, the article analyzed the pecialization level in detail of meat-duck,egg-duck, goose, putting forward the core of waterfowl industry layout industrial circle and the regional distribution type.To meat-duck,formating (shan dong, guang dong, jiang su) three core business circle with (high location quotient, high market share)class A region (jiang su, shan dong, guang dong, guang xi),(High location quotient, low market share) class B (hai nan,chong qing, Beijing),(low location quotient, high market share) class C (si chuan, hu nan, he nan, liao ning),(low location quotient and low market share)class D (the rest areas);To goose,formating (guang dong, liao ning, jiang su)three core industrial circle and The four regional types:the area A(guang dong, jiang su, liao ning, hei long jiang), B (Shanghai, jiang xi, shan dong, hai nan, chong qing), C (si chuan, hu nan, ji lin), D (the rest); to egg-duck, formating (hu bei and hu nan and zhe jiang fu jian)two core business circle and and The four regional types:the area A (zhe jiang, fu jian, hu bei, hu nan), B (Shang hai, chong qing),C (si chuan, an hui), D (the rest).
Then, from the angles of comprehensive competitiveness, location quotient, market share by spearman empirical analysis, the article makes a analysis of the regional specialization level difference and its influence factors of distribution of waterfowl industry, and prove the key factors of waterfowl industry layout and correlation factors and the related degree influencing the specialization level difference.The results showed that:the comprehensive competitiveness has a positive correlation with regional water resource conditions, economic development level, the industrial scale, the investment in science and technology, and the industrialization level a, the competitive level has a bigger correlation with investment in science and technology, dustrialization level; the location quotient, market share of meat-duck, goose, egg-duck have a positive correlation with water resources, the level of GDP, the industrial scale, investment in science and technology,, the egg-duck is more dependent on the water resources conditions.The location quotient and market share of the goose has a bigger correlation with GDP and investment in science and technology, The location quotient and market share of the meat-duck, goose, egg-duck have a bigger correlation with industrialization level.
Finally, the paper puts forward the overall layout of waterfowl industry in China,which should follow the five economic circle distribution strategy, mainly around the pearl river delta, Yangtze river delta, bohai sea, northeast, west triangle economic circle to plan the national waterfowl layout. In addition, on the basis of the overall strategies, the tactics subdivided into three major categories of waterfowl industry in China, are the "three times"and"four types " strategy of meat-duck,"three circle" and "four types "strategy of goose,"two ring"and"four types " strategy of egg-duck.During the development of waterfowl industry, in addition to strengthen their core business circle system development, also should strengthen the support of class B and class C area, make it to the senior regional transformation, as well as the taking on development strategies for implementation of selective class D area, cultivating characteristic competitiveness, to enhance the overall level of waterfowl industry.The study put forward:rational for the country's industry layout, avoiding low, inefficient repetitive construction; highlighting the characteristics of regional advantages, industry layout, adjusting measures to local conditions, using the advantages of industrialization development, and paying attention to environmental protection and sustainable development; Formulating industry standards and norms, rules; To strengthen the market monitoring of relevant alternatives to trade, establishing a flexible market reaction system; Guiding the industry development of technological progress and updating, promoting the competitiveness of the technology; Advocating People-oriented, actively cultivating the waterfowl industry personnel and strengthening the personnel flow mechanism; to improve the mechanism of regional cooperation, learning, and mechanisms of promotion and the popularization of advanced technology and so on.For breakdown strategy, the raticle respectively from Eight aspects:training according to the specific industry growth pole, and strengthen science and technology investment, promote the industrialization, the reasonable adjustment of industry scale and the development and speed up the extension of industry chain and actively cultivate its own characteristics of the competitive advantage and strengthen regional cooperation, propose policy Suggestions,
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