基于家庭调查数据的乘用车购买行为及市场需求研究
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摘要
改革开放30多年来，中国居民生活水平发生了巨大的变化。居民收入的大幅度提高既带来了消费行为的改变，也带来了消费结构的升级。一方面，以食品为代表的基本生活支出在总支出中的比重不断下降；另一方面，大型耐用消费品的拥有量在不断上升。特别是中国加入世界贸易组织以来，汽车作为典型的耐用消费品开始进入中国家庭，汽车拥有量快速上升，中国进入私人汽车普及期。2009年中国汽车产销量超过美国成为世界第一，2009年之后的几年中国汽车产销量一直保持世界第一，而且在2012年达到了1940万辆，刷新了全球的历史记录，成绩令人瞩目。在此背景下，本文将汽车这一典型的耐用消费品作为研究对象，对中国家庭的汽车消费行为和消费需求进行研究。汽车产品是一种典型的具有差异化特征的消费品，对于差异化特征非常明显的消费品，如果忽略其异质性特征，那么所得到的研究结果的可靠性和真实性是值得怀疑的。因此本文尝试在充分考虑异质性的前提下，展开对汽车消费相关问题的研究，而在异质性条件下进行研究时，通常需要基于特征空间，并使用离散选择模型。近些年来随着离散选择模型的不断发展和完善，使得在方法和模型上为类似研究提供了有力的研究工具。
通过对相关研究的考察，同时考虑到中国家庭汽车消费研究的现状以及各方面条件的满足程度，本文确定了研究的主题。本文以中国家庭的汽车消费为研究对象，通过构建嵌套Logit模型，研究中国家庭在选择汽车时的行为及消费者特征和产品特征对于选择行为影响机理，并更进一步，在消费者行为研究的基础上，从微观的角度计算家庭汽车消费需求。
由于本文是从微观层面入手，研究中国家庭的汽车消费，为了能够支撑本文的研究主题，本文在研究中收集和使用的数据非常多样，既有反映整体市场情况的汽车总量消费数据，也有近7000个消费者家庭调查数据。而且这些微观调查数据涉及到了几乎所有在中国销售的汽车品牌和车型，为本文的研究提供了数据保证。本文主要研究内容如下：
本文第1章对消费理论进行了概述，在回顾和评述现有研究成果的基础上，提出了本文研究的问题和本文的研究路线。
本文第2章中主要陈述和分析了三个方面的问题，第一，主要是对整个汽车市场的发展现状做了完整的，详细的评述，特别是对乘用车市场的发展历史做了详细的介绍。第二，更进一步的从分省的角度，对汽车市场的总体消费分布情况进行了研究，并借助集中度指数和区位商的概念，分析了各个省的乘用车消费特征。第三，对于本文使用的2012年度的全国乘用车消费者调查数据进行了详细的介绍，从多个角度进行了描述，从样本数据反映出来的统计特征看，样本数据的代表性是比较好的，能够反映中国总体乘用车市场的真实情况。
本文第3章首先引入了离散选择模型，通过理论模型的介绍，理解离散选择模型的理论基础及主要区别，其中重点强调了嵌套Logit模型。然后，本文在充分考虑异质性的前提下，对消费者消费选择行为的路径进行了定义，将消费者对家用汽车的购买过程假定为首先在国产品牌与国外品牌之间，然后在不同级别之间，最后在不同产品品牌之间进行选择。该假设过程将作为本文对消费者消费选择行为的预期，在后续实证部分将按照这一选择过程对消费行为进行计量研究，并对该过程的合理性进行检验。最后对纳入到模型中的乘用车品牌进行了规定。本章从模型理论，消费选择行为假设以及引入模型的品牌等几个方面进行了理论准备，为下一步进行实证研究打好基础。
本文第4章首先从微观层面入手对轿车的消费选择行为进行了研究，在考虑产品差异性和消费者特征差异的前提下，以随机效用理论为基础，按照本文假设的消费选择次序建立三层次嵌套Logit模型，将消费者特征与产品特征统一于这一离散选择模型；得到每一个选择层次的影响因素，并以此为基础得到这些影响因素对于家庭选择概率的影响。研究结果表明轿车的产品属性发动机功率，速度、轴距以及价格等对于消费者对产品品牌的选择有主要影响；家庭收入、是否有小孩、通常乘坐人数等对于消费者对轿车级别的选择有重要影响，而消费者的性别、年龄、受教育程度以及收入等变量对于消费者选择自主品牌或是合资品牌有重大影响。然后按照同样的理论模型和前提假设对SUV车型的消费行为也进行了计量研究并得出相关结论。最后通过对模型结果边际效用的比较和分析得出更进一步的结论。
本文第5章从一个全新的角度计算消费者对家庭汽车的需求。首先，本章引入了“第二选择”的概念，即在对消费者进行问卷调查的时候，需要消费者回答这样一个问题，在购车的时候，消费者最认真考虑的第二选择车型是什么。通过这个问题收集了第二选择车型的完整数据，利用这一数据，参照BLP模型框架，本文利用半参数估计和广义矩估计等方法，可以计算得到某一具体车型的消费者选择概率即市场份额。
本文第6章对中国整体乘用车市场的需求总量进行了估计，而本文估计总量的目的是为了与第5章的结果一起最终得到某一具体车型的销量。本章对总量需求进行估计时，利用了VAR模型和误差修正模型，从各变量与新车销量之间的长期稳定关系的角度建模，并得到总量预测值，在得到总量预测值之后，利用第5章得到的结果，计算得到相关产品需求量。
从目前本文作者对相关文献检索情况看，在考虑产品异质性的前提下，从微观的角度进行家庭汽车消费相关研究的文献非常少。本文的创新之处主要有以下几点：
1、本文在大样本的基础上，在考虑产品异质性的前提下，研究了中国家庭汽车消费选择行为。巧妙的利用嵌套Logit模型将消费者特征和产品特征统一于一个模型中，并按照假设的选择过程逐级对模型进行估计，揭示了家庭购车过程中的机理，为企业制定策略和政府制定政策提供了理论基础。
2、国内大部分汽车研究都是建立在同质性前提下的，在这种假设下，很难深入研究中国家庭的汽车消费行为，而本文是使用微观数据在考虑产品差异和消费者特征差异的基础上开展研究，对消费者的购车选择行为有了更深层次的研究；其次，即使有少数研究能够使用微观数据，在异质性的假设下研究相关问题，由于样本量通常较小，研究过程中有一定的代表性问题。而本文样本量相对较大，地域分布也相对比较广泛，因此从数据角度为本文的计量研究提供了很好的基础，使得本文能够在考虑异质性的前提下对消费者购车行为和需求进行深入研究，得到一些重要结果，填补或者说是完善了国内相关领域的研究。
3、本文使用“第二选择”估计了单个车型的市场需求概率，从微观的角度，建立一套完整的需求计算框架，能够相对精确的计算出产品的需求数量。从而对于以汽车为代表的异质性很强的耐用消费品的细分品种需求及估计提供了一套完成的方法体系。
4、利用分省乘用车上牌数据研究乘用车消费格局，在研究中借鉴了集中度指数和区位商的概念，从中发现乘用车在各省之间的不同消费特征以及从厂商角度体现出来的乘用车消费格局特征。这个研究角度比较新颖，从消费的角度揭示了厂商在不同省份的优劣势，为厂商在各个地区的策略提供了理论基础。
当然，由于微观调查数据量的巨大，尤其是涉及到每一个被调查家庭的人口统计学信息，所购车型的产品信息等各个维度的信息加总在一起导致模型计算量的巨大，以及论文篇幅的限制，导致本文不能把样本中涉及的所有车型或者品牌统统纳入到模型计算之中，很多章节是通过市场份额等指标筛选出市场占用率最高、最有代表性的产品进行分析，所以还存在一定的局限性。在后续的研究中，可以考虑增加引入模型的产品。
最后本文需要指出的是，本文的研究是基于横截面数据研究，在对横截面数据研究清楚的基础上，在后续的研究中还可以将研究扩展到时间序列或者面板数据的层次，这样通过时间序列数据的引入，我们可以得到中国家庭汽车消费行为以及需求的变迁。
It is30years since China reform and opening-up, Chinese resident living level have takenplace great changes in this period. As resident income increased significantly, consumer behaviorchanged and consumption structure upgraded. On the one hand, the proportion of basic livingexpenses, for example food, decreased gradually; On the other hand, number of large durableconsumer goods is increasing. Especially after China joined WTO, as a typical durable consumergoods, automobile start to entry to Chinese family, the volume of private passenger car increasedtremendously, and China step into passenger car popularization period. The volume of passengercar in China surpass the U.S. and become the largest passenger car market in the world in2009.After2009, Chinese passenger car market not only keep the No.1position in the world, but alsoreached19.4million in2012, which renew a record in the world. Take this information asbackground, this paper take car as the research object. Automobile products are a kind of typicaldifferentiation characteristics of consumer goods. For consumer goods with high differentiationcharacters, reliability and authenticity of research results will be doubtful if we ignore thedifferentiation character. This paper will try to analysis automobile consumption behavior anddemand by heterogeneity assumption. For consumption heterogeneity assumption study, normallyit will be based on space feature study, as discrete choice model keep developing and improving, itprovides powerful analysis tools.
By reviewing relevant studies, and considering current Chinese family automobileconsumption status, this article comes up with its study objective: taking Chinese familyautomobile consumption as research objective, by conducting logit model, to find out Chineseconsumer car purchasing behavior. Furthermore, to estimate consumer automobile consumptiontrends from micro data level.
The key content of this article is Chinese household’s automobile consumption, and this articlecovers many types of data, there are macro data and micro data (such as sampling survey data). Themicro data covers almost all brands and models in China market which ensure thecomprehensiveness of the analysis. Below is the key content of this article:
Chapter1of this article describes the consumption theory, and pointed out the mainquestions and research method of this article based on reviewing current research progress.
Chapter2mainly stated three questions. Firstly, this chapter make a detailed review about thepresent situation of the development of the whole car market, especially about the development history of passenger car market. The second, using the province level data, this chapter study theautomobile market competition situation based on the concentration index and the concept oflocation quotient, find the major automobile manufacturers’ competition situation, particllarly weanalyse the aggregate consumer behavior characteristics by using these result. Finally, we specifythe national passenger car consumer survey data of2012that this article used, the representation ofthe sample data statistical characteristic is better, it can reflect the overall passenger car market'ssituation.
Chapter3Firstly, we introduce the discrete choice model, understand the model theory and themain difference, especially focus on the nested logit model. Secondly, under the heterogeneity, wedefine the consumption behavior process, the buying process of consumer is assumed to be firstlybetween domestic brands and foreign brands, and secondly between the different level of car, thelast to choose between different product brands. This behavioral assumption is the expectation, andwe will build the mode based on this expectation. In the following chapter, we will tese theassumption. Finally, we choice the product brand that can be introduced in the model. In thischapter, we prepare three aspects for the next quantitative study, the three aspects are theoreticalmodel, behavioral assumption and product brands.
Chapter4Firstly, we carry on the qualitative research on the saloon car. From the micro levelperspective of product differentiation, based on the random utility theory, we establish three levelsof nested logit model. Which unify the consumer characteristics and product characteristics in adiscrete choice model, and find the influenced factors of each level. Based on these factors, find theimpact to choosing probability for family. Research results show that the product attribute, carengine power, speed, wheelbase and prices for the consumer has a major influence on the choice ofproduct brand, body size, whether to have children, seat number for the consumer's choice of carlevel has important influence, and consumers' sex, age, level of education and income for theconsumers to choose from domestic brands and foreign have a significant impact. Secondly, wecarry on the same qualitative research on the SUV, and get the relevant conclusion. Finally, throughcomparison and analysis of the marginal utility of model results, we get the further conclusion.
Chapter5we compute consumer demand for car by a new method. the first, This chapterintroduces the concept of "second choice". When the questionnaire survey was conducted onconsumers, consumers need to answer the question, that is at the time of purchasing, what is themost seriously considering second choice models. Through this problem to collect the secondchoice models’ information. By using the second choice data, we can estimate the relevantparameters by semiparametric estirnation and GMM. Finally get the probability of consumerchoice model.
Chapter6make a volume forecaast for the total passenger vehicle market. In this paper, we use VAR model, get the stability relationship between variables and new car sales volume, and getthe total volume forecast. After getting the total volume, we use the product selection probabilitywhich is obtained from the previous section to calculate the approximate product sales volume.
From the present literature retrieval, under the premise of considering product heterogeneity,correlative papers are few that using the consumer survey data at present. In this paper, the maininnovations are as follows:
1. In this paper, on the basis of large sample, under the premise of considering productheterogeneity，we research the Chinese family car consumer choice behavior. Through three layersof nested logit model to construct the consumer choice process of car and estimate the model.Reveals the mechanism of the process of household buying car, which provide the theoretical basisfor the enterprise strategy and government policy.
2.The most of the domestic automotive research are based on homogeneity premise, underthis assumption, it is difficult to indepth study of Chinese family car consumption behavior; even ifthere are a few studies which research related issues under the assumption of heterogeneity usingmicro data, but their study usually has certain representativeness problems because of the smallsample size. And the sample size of this paper is relatively large and the regional distribution isrelatively more extensive, Through indepth study on consumers purchasing behavior, I get someimportant results and make some progress in this study.
3.In the use of "second choice" to compute the substitutional relation between models,and establish a complete set of requirements computing framework from the micro level and arelatively accurate demand quantity of the product can be calculated. Thus providing a complete setof method system in the car to represent the heterogeneity of strong consumer durablessegmentation varieties demand forecast.
4.We study provincial passenger car consumption pattern based on registration data, in thestudy we use the concentration index and the concept of location quotient, find differentconsumption characteristics in the different provinces and different manufacturers of passenger carsconsumption pattern characteristics.This reveals the advantages and disadvantages ofmanufacturers in different provinces, provide a theoretical basis for a regional strategy of themanufacturers.
Of course, because of the huge amount of micro investigation data, especially involvingdemographic information every family surveyed, the product information etc. and other dimensionsaggregated together which lead to a huge amount of calculation, as well as the paper’s lengthlimitation which lead to that not all models or brands be involved in this article, so some productswhich has the highest market share in its segment and the most representative products areanalyzed in paper. So there are some limitations in this paper which remains to be excavated in the future.
Finally, This paper based on cross-sectional data. In the follow-up studies, we can use the timeseries or panel data, which can get the result about the change of behavior and demand.
通过对相关研究的考察，同时考虑到中国家庭汽车消费研究的现状以及各方面条件的满足程度，本文确定了研究的主题。本文以中国家庭的汽车消费为研究对象，通过构建嵌套Logit模型，研究中国家庭在选择汽车时的行为及消费者特征和产品特征对于选择行为影响机理，并更进一步，在消费者行为研究的基础上，从微观的角度计算家庭汽车消费需求。
由于本文是从微观层面入手，研究中国家庭的汽车消费，为了能够支撑本文的研究主题，本文在研究中收集和使用的数据非常多样，既有反映整体市场情况的汽车总量消费数据，也有近7000个消费者家庭调查数据。而且这些微观调查数据涉及到了几乎所有在中国销售的汽车品牌和车型，为本文的研究提供了数据保证。本文主要研究内容如下：
本文第1章对消费理论进行了概述，在回顾和评述现有研究成果的基础上，提出了本文研究的问题和本文的研究路线。
本文第2章中主要陈述和分析了三个方面的问题，第一，主要是对整个汽车市场的发展现状做了完整的，详细的评述，特别是对乘用车市场的发展历史做了详细的介绍。第二，更进一步的从分省的角度，对汽车市场的总体消费分布情况进行了研究，并借助集中度指数和区位商的概念，分析了各个省的乘用车消费特征。第三，对于本文使用的2012年度的全国乘用车消费者调查数据进行了详细的介绍，从多个角度进行了描述，从样本数据反映出来的统计特征看，样本数据的代表性是比较好的，能够反映中国总体乘用车市场的真实情况。
本文第3章首先引入了离散选择模型，通过理论模型的介绍，理解离散选择模型的理论基础及主要区别，其中重点强调了嵌套Logit模型。然后，本文在充分考虑异质性的前提下，对消费者消费选择行为的路径进行了定义，将消费者对家用汽车的购买过程假定为首先在国产品牌与国外品牌之间，然后在不同级别之间，最后在不同产品品牌之间进行选择。该假设过程将作为本文对消费者消费选择行为的预期，在后续实证部分将按照这一选择过程对消费行为进行计量研究，并对该过程的合理性进行检验。最后对纳入到模型中的乘用车品牌进行了规定。本章从模型理论，消费选择行为假设以及引入模型的品牌等几个方面进行了理论准备，为下一步进行实证研究打好基础。
本文第4章首先从微观层面入手对轿车的消费选择行为进行了研究，在考虑产品差异性和消费者特征差异的前提下，以随机效用理论为基础，按照本文假设的消费选择次序建立三层次嵌套Logit模型，将消费者特征与产品特征统一于这一离散选择模型；得到每一个选择层次的影响因素，并以此为基础得到这些影响因素对于家庭选择概率的影响。研究结果表明轿车的产品属性发动机功率，速度、轴距以及价格等对于消费者对产品品牌的选择有主要影响；家庭收入、是否有小孩、通常乘坐人数等对于消费者对轿车级别的选择有重要影响，而消费者的性别、年龄、受教育程度以及收入等变量对于消费者选择自主品牌或是合资品牌有重大影响。然后按照同样的理论模型和前提假设对SUV车型的消费行为也进行了计量研究并得出相关结论。最后通过对模型结果边际效用的比较和分析得出更进一步的结论。
本文第5章从一个全新的角度计算消费者对家庭汽车的需求。首先，本章引入了“第二选择”的概念，即在对消费者进行问卷调查的时候，需要消费者回答这样一个问题，在购车的时候，消费者最认真考虑的第二选择车型是什么。通过这个问题收集了第二选择车型的完整数据，利用这一数据，参照BLP模型框架，本文利用半参数估计和广义矩估计等方法，可以计算得到某一具体车型的消费者选择概率即市场份额。
本文第6章对中国整体乘用车市场的需求总量进行了估计，而本文估计总量的目的是为了与第5章的结果一起最终得到某一具体车型的销量。本章对总量需求进行估计时，利用了VAR模型和误差修正模型，从各变量与新车销量之间的长期稳定关系的角度建模，并得到总量预测值，在得到总量预测值之后，利用第5章得到的结果，计算得到相关产品需求量。
从目前本文作者对相关文献检索情况看，在考虑产品异质性的前提下，从微观的角度进行家庭汽车消费相关研究的文献非常少。本文的创新之处主要有以下几点：
1、本文在大样本的基础上，在考虑产品异质性的前提下，研究了中国家庭汽车消费选择行为。巧妙的利用嵌套Logit模型将消费者特征和产品特征统一于一个模型中，并按照假设的选择过程逐级对模型进行估计，揭示了家庭购车过程中的机理，为企业制定策略和政府制定政策提供了理论基础。
2、国内大部分汽车研究都是建立在同质性前提下的，在这种假设下，很难深入研究中国家庭的汽车消费行为，而本文是使用微观数据在考虑产品差异和消费者特征差异的基础上开展研究，对消费者的购车选择行为有了更深层次的研究；其次，即使有少数研究能够使用微观数据，在异质性的假设下研究相关问题，由于样本量通常较小，研究过程中有一定的代表性问题。而本文样本量相对较大，地域分布也相对比较广泛，因此从数据角度为本文的计量研究提供了很好的基础，使得本文能够在考虑异质性的前提下对消费者购车行为和需求进行深入研究，得到一些重要结果，填补或者说是完善了国内相关领域的研究。
3、本文使用“第二选择”估计了单个车型的市场需求概率，从微观的角度，建立一套完整的需求计算框架，能够相对精确的计算出产品的需求数量。从而对于以汽车为代表的异质性很强的耐用消费品的细分品种需求及估计提供了一套完成的方法体系。
4、利用分省乘用车上牌数据研究乘用车消费格局，在研究中借鉴了集中度指数和区位商的概念，从中发现乘用车在各省之间的不同消费特征以及从厂商角度体现出来的乘用车消费格局特征。这个研究角度比较新颖，从消费的角度揭示了厂商在不同省份的优劣势，为厂商在各个地区的策略提供了理论基础。
当然，由于微观调查数据量的巨大，尤其是涉及到每一个被调查家庭的人口统计学信息，所购车型的产品信息等各个维度的信息加总在一起导致模型计算量的巨大，以及论文篇幅的限制，导致本文不能把样本中涉及的所有车型或者品牌统统纳入到模型计算之中，很多章节是通过市场份额等指标筛选出市场占用率最高、最有代表性的产品进行分析，所以还存在一定的局限性。在后续的研究中，可以考虑增加引入模型的产品。
最后本文需要指出的是，本文的研究是基于横截面数据研究，在对横截面数据研究清楚的基础上，在后续的研究中还可以将研究扩展到时间序列或者面板数据的层次，这样通过时间序列数据的引入，我们可以得到中国家庭汽车消费行为以及需求的变迁。
It is30years since China reform and opening-up, Chinese resident living level have takenplace great changes in this period. As resident income increased significantly, consumer behaviorchanged and consumption structure upgraded. On the one hand, the proportion of basic livingexpenses, for example food, decreased gradually; On the other hand, number of large durableconsumer goods is increasing. Especially after China joined WTO, as a typical durable consumergoods, automobile start to entry to Chinese family, the volume of private passenger car increasedtremendously, and China step into passenger car popularization period. The volume of passengercar in China surpass the U.S. and become the largest passenger car market in the world in2009.After2009, Chinese passenger car market not only keep the No.1position in the world, but alsoreached19.4million in2012, which renew a record in the world. Take this information asbackground, this paper take car as the research object. Automobile products are a kind of typicaldifferentiation characteristics of consumer goods. For consumer goods with high differentiationcharacters, reliability and authenticity of research results will be doubtful if we ignore thedifferentiation character. This paper will try to analysis automobile consumption behavior anddemand by heterogeneity assumption. For consumption heterogeneity assumption study, normallyit will be based on space feature study, as discrete choice model keep developing and improving, itprovides powerful analysis tools.
By reviewing relevant studies, and considering current Chinese family automobileconsumption status, this article comes up with its study objective: taking Chinese familyautomobile consumption as research objective, by conducting logit model, to find out Chineseconsumer car purchasing behavior. Furthermore, to estimate consumer automobile consumptiontrends from micro data level.
The key content of this article is Chinese household’s automobile consumption, and this articlecovers many types of data, there are macro data and micro data (such as sampling survey data). Themicro data covers almost all brands and models in China market which ensure thecomprehensiveness of the analysis. Below is the key content of this article:
Chapter1of this article describes the consumption theory, and pointed out the mainquestions and research method of this article based on reviewing current research progress.
Chapter2mainly stated three questions. Firstly, this chapter make a detailed review about thepresent situation of the development of the whole car market, especially about the development history of passenger car market. The second, using the province level data, this chapter study theautomobile market competition situation based on the concentration index and the concept oflocation quotient, find the major automobile manufacturers’ competition situation, particllarly weanalyse the aggregate consumer behavior characteristics by using these result. Finally, we specifythe national passenger car consumer survey data of2012that this article used, the representation ofthe sample data statistical characteristic is better, it can reflect the overall passenger car market'ssituation.
Chapter3Firstly, we introduce the discrete choice model, understand the model theory and themain difference, especially focus on the nested logit model. Secondly, under the heterogeneity, wedefine the consumption behavior process, the buying process of consumer is assumed to be firstlybetween domestic brands and foreign brands, and secondly between the different level of car, thelast to choose between different product brands. This behavioral assumption is the expectation, andwe will build the mode based on this expectation. In the following chapter, we will tese theassumption. Finally, we choice the product brand that can be introduced in the model. In thischapter, we prepare three aspects for the next quantitative study, the three aspects are theoreticalmodel, behavioral assumption and product brands.
Chapter4Firstly, we carry on the qualitative research on the saloon car. From the micro levelperspective of product differentiation, based on the random utility theory, we establish three levelsof nested logit model. Which unify the consumer characteristics and product characteristics in adiscrete choice model, and find the influenced factors of each level. Based on these factors, find theimpact to choosing probability for family. Research results show that the product attribute, carengine power, speed, wheelbase and prices for the consumer has a major influence on the choice ofproduct brand, body size, whether to have children, seat number for the consumer's choice of carlevel has important influence, and consumers' sex, age, level of education and income for theconsumers to choose from domestic brands and foreign have a significant impact. Secondly, wecarry on the same qualitative research on the SUV, and get the relevant conclusion. Finally, throughcomparison and analysis of the marginal utility of model results, we get the further conclusion.
Chapter5we compute consumer demand for car by a new method. the first, This chapterintroduces the concept of "second choice". When the questionnaire survey was conducted onconsumers, consumers need to answer the question, that is at the time of purchasing, what is themost seriously considering second choice models. Through this problem to collect the secondchoice models’ information. By using the second choice data, we can estimate the relevantparameters by semiparametric estirnation and GMM. Finally get the probability of consumerchoice model.
Chapter6make a volume forecaast for the total passenger vehicle market. In this paper, we use VAR model, get the stability relationship between variables and new car sales volume, and getthe total volume forecast. After getting the total volume, we use the product selection probabilitywhich is obtained from the previous section to calculate the approximate product sales volume.
From the present literature retrieval, under the premise of considering product heterogeneity,correlative papers are few that using the consumer survey data at present. In this paper, the maininnovations are as follows:
1. In this paper, on the basis of large sample, under the premise of considering productheterogeneity，we research the Chinese family car consumer choice behavior. Through three layersof nested logit model to construct the consumer choice process of car and estimate the model.Reveals the mechanism of the process of household buying car, which provide the theoretical basisfor the enterprise strategy and government policy.
2.The most of the domestic automotive research are based on homogeneity premise, underthis assumption, it is difficult to indepth study of Chinese family car consumption behavior; even ifthere are a few studies which research related issues under the assumption of heterogeneity usingmicro data, but their study usually has certain representativeness problems because of the smallsample size. And the sample size of this paper is relatively large and the regional distribution isrelatively more extensive, Through indepth study on consumers purchasing behavior, I get someimportant results and make some progress in this study.
3.In the use of "second choice" to compute the substitutional relation between models,and establish a complete set of requirements computing framework from the micro level and arelatively accurate demand quantity of the product can be calculated. Thus providing a complete setof method system in the car to represent the heterogeneity of strong consumer durablessegmentation varieties demand forecast.
4.We study provincial passenger car consumption pattern based on registration data, in thestudy we use the concentration index and the concept of location quotient, find differentconsumption characteristics in the different provinces and different manufacturers of passenger carsconsumption pattern characteristics.This reveals the advantages and disadvantages ofmanufacturers in different provinces, provide a theoretical basis for a regional strategy of themanufacturers.
Of course, because of the huge amount of micro investigation data, especially involvingdemographic information every family surveyed, the product information etc. and other dimensionsaggregated together which lead to a huge amount of calculation, as well as the paper’s lengthlimitation which lead to that not all models or brands be involved in this article, so some productswhich has the highest market share in its segment and the most representative products areanalyzed in paper. So there are some limitations in this paper which remains to be excavated in the future.
Finally, This paper based on cross-sectional data. In the follow-up studies, we can use the timeseries or panel data, which can get the result about the change of behavior and demand.
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