中国化肥产业政策对粮食生产的影响研究
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摘要
确保国家粮食安全是推动经济发展和维护社会稳定的基础。我国能以9%的世界耕地养活20%的世界人口得益于化肥的大量投入。因此,我国政府通过出台一系列化肥产业政策来推动化肥生产和施用。然而,随着粮食生产集约化程度的不断提高,粮食生产中化肥过量施用的问题越来越严重,这不仅无益于提高粮食生产,而且也对生态环境造成了严重的破坏。为此,本文利用国家统计数据、文献资料数据和农户调研数据,通过对我国粮食生产的历史转变和化肥产业政策的分析,阐述了目前粮食生产和养分管理存在的问题,并提出养分管理对解决我国未来粮食安全问题的作用及意义。主要结论如下：
(1)目前,我国粮食主产区的生产优势较为突出,2004-2011年间,主产区对全国粮食增产1亿吨的贡献率达到90.6%。随着我国粮食需求的不断增加,未来粮食主产区的增产压力逐步加大。同时,单产对于推动粮食增产1亿吨的贡献率分别由1978-1984年的127%和1984-1998年间的96.1%减少至2004-2011年间的54.5%,表明农业生产资料的投入,尤其是化肥投入的不断增加对提高粮食单产的效应日益降低。
(2)我国以增加养分投入为导向的化肥产业补贴政策对推动化肥生产与施用发挥了巨大的作用。2011年我国化肥产业补贴金额高达1570亿元,相当于2480元／吨的化肥折纯补贴,这使得化肥价格平均降低22.4%,节省粮食生产中的化肥成本30.8%。但同时,相对低廉的化肥价格使得农户普遍缺乏经济动力来使用有机养分,造成了有机养分资源的浪费,加大了环境风险。
(3)按照目前我国粮食生产的成本收益现状,农户仅依靠粮食生产的纯收入为5586元/年,略高于城镇困难户的收入水平。粮食收益过低使得农户兼业化的现象较为普遍。目前,农户纯收入中来自粮食生产的比重仅为23.3%。兼业化导致了农户在粮食生产过程中的粗放经营,降低了养分利用效率。
(4)养分管理措施的应用可以使粮食单产和化肥效率同时提高30%-50%,为提高粮食产量和缓减因粮食生产带来的环境压力提供了解决途径。并且,化肥生产效率的提高有助于提高化肥与粮食价格的理论临界值,促进粮食产量的增加。同时,养分管理措施的应用可以使农户种粮收入较目前收入水平提高52.4%,相较于提高粮食价格和增加粮食补贴等政策措施,推动养分管理在实际粮食生产中应用的政策成本更低,受到的社会经济等因素的影响更小,更符合我国粮食生产的现状。
目前,我国的粮食生产处在一个供求关系基本平衡的状态,粮食安全问题并不突出,但是随着我国人口的增加、居民收入水平的提高以及城镇化的快速推进,粮食需求将进一步增加。此外,土壤退化、水资源短缺、单产提高的限制和农户较低的种粮积极性,将对我国的粮食生产提出巨大的挑战。如何能以可持续的生产方式养活不断增加的人口、满足不断变化的饮食结构和营养需求,已经成为我国国家政策议程中的首要任务。目前的粮食生产方式并没有使我国的粮食产能完全发挥出来,粮食单产还有巨大的提升空间。今后进一步采用综合养分管理技术,有利于推动粮食生产。因此,我国必须在政策和技术层面上作出调整推动粮食生产的可持续发展。
Ensuring national food security is a fundation for promoting economic development and maintaining social stability. China's success in growing enough food to feed20%of the world's population with only9%of the world's arable land is depending on massive use of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, our central government introduced a package of policies to promote the production and application of chemical fertilizers. However, the problem of excessive ues of fertilizers is becoming more unfavourable in the process of grain production with the rapid development of intensive grain production, which is not only decreased the crop yield, but also had caused sever damage to the ecological environment. In this thesis, the historical development of China's grain production and fertilizer industry policies are reviewed by using national statistical data, cultural data and household survey data. Meanwhile, the problems of China's grain production and fertilizer industry policies are analyzed. Finally, some key viewpoints of nutrient management in addressing China's future food security are proposed. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Currently, the advantages of three major grain producing regions in promoting grain productions were becoming more prominent, during2004-2011, the major grain producing regions contributes90.6%to100MT net increase of grain production in the country.As China's rising demand for food, the pressure of boosting grain production in major grain producing areas will be increased. At the same time, the effect of crop yield on promoting grain production gradually diminished. During period1978-1984and period1984-1998, the yield improvement contributed127%and96.1%respectively to100MT net increase of grain production, but during2004-2011, the contribution ratio of yield improvement to the grain production increase decreased to54.5%, which indicated that the increasing agricultural materials, especially chemical fertilizer inputs was playing less important role for improving crop yield.
(2) The nutrient incrase-oriented fertilizer industry policy was playing a great role in promoting the production and application of chemical fertilizers in China. In2011, the total amount of fertilizer industry subsidy was up to157billion RMB, equivalents to2480yuan/t of fertilizer nutrients, which makes fertilizer prices reduced by22.4%averagely, saving30.8%of the fertilizer costs in grain production. Meanwhile, the relatively low price of chemical fertilizer makes farmers lack of economic incentive to use organic nutrients, which is not only caused the organic resource waste, also caused environmental polllution.
(3) According to the current situation of costs and benefits of China's grain production, the net income of farmers rely only on grain production is5586yuan/year, slightly above the income level of poor urban households. At the same time, the lower comparative benefits of grain production make the phenomenon of concurrent business of farmer households more widespread. Currently, the net income from grain production is only23.3%. The problem of farmer household's concurrent business is leading to extensive management in grain production which reduced the fertilizer efficiency of grain production in China.
(4) The application of nutrient management measures can improve the crop yield and fertilizer efficiency by30%-50%simultaneously, which provides a solution to mitigate environmental pressures and increase the grain production. Also, improving the fertilizer efficiency is conducive to raise the theoretical critical value of price ratio of fertilizer and grain products, which helps increase grain production. At the same time, the application of nutrient management measures can raise the income of grain production farmers by52.4%, and the policy cost of implementing nutrient management mensures is relatively smaller than other policy measures. Moreover, imporving grain production through nutrient management is more in line with the current situation of China's grain production.
At present, the food security issues are not prominent in China, and grain production is in a balance state of supply and demand. However, with the increasing population pressure, household income level as well as rapid urbanization, China need more grain to feed her people. In addition, problems such as soil degradation, water shortages, constraints on improving crop yield, and lower enthusiasms of farmers to grow grain crops will exert great challenge to China's grain production. The question like how can the growing Chinese population be fed in a sustainable way of grain production has become the top priority in the national policy agenda. Current food production in China is not fully played out of its capacity; there is still great room for improving crop yield. Adopting integrated nutrient management technologies or measeures can further promote grain production in future. Therefore, adjustment must be made at the policy and technical levels in China to promote sustainable development of grain production.
(1)目前,我国粮食主产区的生产优势较为突出,2004-2011年间,主产区对全国粮食增产1亿吨的贡献率达到90.6%。随着我国粮食需求的不断增加,未来粮食主产区的增产压力逐步加大。同时,单产对于推动粮食增产1亿吨的贡献率分别由1978-1984年的127%和1984-1998年间的96.1%减少至2004-2011年间的54.5%,表明农业生产资料的投入,尤其是化肥投入的不断增加对提高粮食单产的效应日益降低。
(2)我国以增加养分投入为导向的化肥产业补贴政策对推动化肥生产与施用发挥了巨大的作用。2011年我国化肥产业补贴金额高达1570亿元,相当于2480元／吨的化肥折纯补贴,这使得化肥价格平均降低22.4%,节省粮食生产中的化肥成本30.8%。但同时,相对低廉的化肥价格使得农户普遍缺乏经济动力来使用有机养分,造成了有机养分资源的浪费,加大了环境风险。
(3)按照目前我国粮食生产的成本收益现状,农户仅依靠粮食生产的纯收入为5586元/年,略高于城镇困难户的收入水平。粮食收益过低使得农户兼业化的现象较为普遍。目前,农户纯收入中来自粮食生产的比重仅为23.3%。兼业化导致了农户在粮食生产过程中的粗放经营,降低了养分利用效率。
(4)养分管理措施的应用可以使粮食单产和化肥效率同时提高30%-50%,为提高粮食产量和缓减因粮食生产带来的环境压力提供了解决途径。并且,化肥生产效率的提高有助于提高化肥与粮食价格的理论临界值,促进粮食产量的增加。同时,养分管理措施的应用可以使农户种粮收入较目前收入水平提高52.4%,相较于提高粮食价格和增加粮食补贴等政策措施,推动养分管理在实际粮食生产中应用的政策成本更低,受到的社会经济等因素的影响更小,更符合我国粮食生产的现状。
目前,我国的粮食生产处在一个供求关系基本平衡的状态,粮食安全问题并不突出,但是随着我国人口的增加、居民收入水平的提高以及城镇化的快速推进,粮食需求将进一步增加。此外,土壤退化、水资源短缺、单产提高的限制和农户较低的种粮积极性,将对我国的粮食生产提出巨大的挑战。如何能以可持续的生产方式养活不断增加的人口、满足不断变化的饮食结构和营养需求,已经成为我国国家政策议程中的首要任务。目前的粮食生产方式并没有使我国的粮食产能完全发挥出来,粮食单产还有巨大的提升空间。今后进一步采用综合养分管理技术,有利于推动粮食生产。因此,我国必须在政策和技术层面上作出调整推动粮食生产的可持续发展。
Ensuring national food security is a fundation for promoting economic development and maintaining social stability. China's success in growing enough food to feed20%of the world's population with only9%of the world's arable land is depending on massive use of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, our central government introduced a package of policies to promote the production and application of chemical fertilizers. However, the problem of excessive ues of fertilizers is becoming more unfavourable in the process of grain production with the rapid development of intensive grain production, which is not only decreased the crop yield, but also had caused sever damage to the ecological environment. In this thesis, the historical development of China's grain production and fertilizer industry policies are reviewed by using national statistical data, cultural data and household survey data. Meanwhile, the problems of China's grain production and fertilizer industry policies are analyzed. Finally, some key viewpoints of nutrient management in addressing China's future food security are proposed. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Currently, the advantages of three major grain producing regions in promoting grain productions were becoming more prominent, during2004-2011, the major grain producing regions contributes90.6%to100MT net increase of grain production in the country.As China's rising demand for food, the pressure of boosting grain production in major grain producing areas will be increased. At the same time, the effect of crop yield on promoting grain production gradually diminished. During period1978-1984and period1984-1998, the yield improvement contributed127%and96.1%respectively to100MT net increase of grain production, but during2004-2011, the contribution ratio of yield improvement to the grain production increase decreased to54.5%, which indicated that the increasing agricultural materials, especially chemical fertilizer inputs was playing less important role for improving crop yield.
(2) The nutrient incrase-oriented fertilizer industry policy was playing a great role in promoting the production and application of chemical fertilizers in China. In2011, the total amount of fertilizer industry subsidy was up to157billion RMB, equivalents to2480yuan/t of fertilizer nutrients, which makes fertilizer prices reduced by22.4%averagely, saving30.8%of the fertilizer costs in grain production. Meanwhile, the relatively low price of chemical fertilizer makes farmers lack of economic incentive to use organic nutrients, which is not only caused the organic resource waste, also caused environmental polllution.
(3) According to the current situation of costs and benefits of China's grain production, the net income of farmers rely only on grain production is5586yuan/year, slightly above the income level of poor urban households. At the same time, the lower comparative benefits of grain production make the phenomenon of concurrent business of farmer households more widespread. Currently, the net income from grain production is only23.3%. The problem of farmer household's concurrent business is leading to extensive management in grain production which reduced the fertilizer efficiency of grain production in China.
(4) The application of nutrient management measures can improve the crop yield and fertilizer efficiency by30%-50%simultaneously, which provides a solution to mitigate environmental pressures and increase the grain production. Also, improving the fertilizer efficiency is conducive to raise the theoretical critical value of price ratio of fertilizer and grain products, which helps increase grain production. At the same time, the application of nutrient management measures can raise the income of grain production farmers by52.4%, and the policy cost of implementing nutrient management mensures is relatively smaller than other policy measures. Moreover, imporving grain production through nutrient management is more in line with the current situation of China's grain production.
At present, the food security issues are not prominent in China, and grain production is in a balance state of supply and demand. However, with the increasing population pressure, household income level as well as rapid urbanization, China need more grain to feed her people. In addition, problems such as soil degradation, water shortages, constraints on improving crop yield, and lower enthusiasms of farmers to grow grain crops will exert great challenge to China's grain production. The question like how can the growing Chinese population be fed in a sustainable way of grain production has become the top priority in the national policy agenda. Current food production in China is not fully played out of its capacity; there is still great room for improving crop yield. Adopting integrated nutrient management technologies or measeures can further promote grain production in future. Therefore, adjustment must be made at the policy and technical levels in China to promote sustainable development of grain production.
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