华北地区冬小麦—夏玉米作物生产体系产量差特征解析
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摘要
随着人口膨胀、饮食结构变化和能源需求增加,中国粮食安全问题日益严峻,为满足日益增长的粮食需求,在有限的耕地资源背景下,唯有提高单位面积的产量才能维持粮食安全。华北地区是中国小麦和玉米重要的生产基地,明确该地区实际产量和潜在产量水平之间的产量差及其变化规律,有助于进一步提升农户实际产量。本文以华北地区冬小麦-夏玉米作物生产体系为研究对象,利用农业生产系统模拟模型(APSIM),考虑品种更替特征,模拟了1981-2010年冬小麦和夏玉米的潜在产量,分析气候变化和品种更替对其影响程度；结合1981-2010年县级作物统计产量和种植面积资料,定量分析了实际产量和潜在产量之间的产量差及其时间变化趋势；同时明确了各区域周年调控措施对潜在产量的提升作用,为提升华北地区周年产量提供科学依据和参考。主要结论如下：
(1)华北地区冬小麦和夏玉米的潜在产量均从西南向东北方向递增,具有明显的纬向和经向分布趋势,在1981-2010年间,因品种和气候的共同作用,分别每年增加45kghm-2和85kghm-2。冬小麦生长季内总辐射量是其潜在产量时间变化特征的决定因素,辐射降低导致冬小麦减产。夏玉米潜在产量时间变化特征则受其生育期内最低温度、日较差和总辐射的影响,其中总辐射占主导地位。冬小麦潜在产量的空间差异由最高温度和总辐射共同决定,其中生育期内总辐射占主导地位。影响夏玉米潜在产量空间差异的主要因素为热量,其中最低温度的影响程度最大。
(2)不考虑品种更替条件下,最近30年气候变化缩短了冬小麦全生育阶段和营养生长阶段长度,延长了生殖生长阶段长度；而对夏玉米生育阶段长度没有统一影响。在气候不变的情景下,品种更替有延长冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的作用,尤其是延长生殖生长阶段的长度,品种更替对夏玉米生育阶段长度的延长效果要大于冬小麦。对比气候变化和品种更替对生育阶段长度的影响程度,气候变化是冬小麦生育阶段长度变化的主导因素,而品种更替是夏玉米生育阶段长度变化的主导因素。品种不变的条件下,气候变化降低冬小麦和夏玉米的潜在产量,而品种更替可以有效的补偿气候变化对潜在产量的负效应。
(3)1981-2010年冬小麦和夏玉米的实际产量显著增加,平均每年增加115kghm-2和100kghm-2。目前华北地区33.6%的种植面积的冬小麦产量处于停滞,主要分布在河北省和山东省；夏玉米种植面积29.3%发生了产量停滞,主要分布于山东省中西部、河北省中部和河南省中北部。
(4)华北地区冬小麦实际产量与潜在产量之间的产量差在全区的种植面积加权平均为3627kghm-2,占潜在产量的45%,用潜在产量的80%作为实际农田的最高可获得产量,则华北地区实际产量的可提升空间为2000kg hm-2。同理夏玉米实际产量和潜在产量之间产量差为3747kghm-2,占潜在产量的43%,农户产量的可提升空间为2004kghm-2。过去30年,研究区域冬小麦产量差每年降低69kg hm-2,达到极显著水平,而夏玉米仅有微弱的下降趋势。河南中部是冬小麦产量差的低值区,而山东西部是夏玉米产量差的低值区,潜在产量将是这些地区产量提升的重要限制因子。
Because a strong increase in population and biomass energy as well as dietary changing, China food security problems have become more and more serious. To meet the growing demand for food and maintain food security, under the background of limited arable land resources, it was the only way to improve the yield per unit area. North China Plain (NCP) is one of the largest wheat and maize production regions in China, which play an important role in food security. Quantifying the size and variation of yield gaps between the actual on-farm yields and potential yields will be helpful for the further enhance the on-farm actual production. In this paper, we focused on the winter wheat and summer maize rotation systems. First, we simulated the potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize by agricultural production system simulation model (APSIM), considering the changes in variety during1981-2010. Meanwhile, a detailed analysis of the effects of climate change and cultivar replacement on potential yields was conducted. Sencond, we calculated the yield gaps of winter wheat and summer maize between on-farm yields and potential yields and its linear trends during1981-2010, based on actual yields at county level. Third, we were trying to find some efficient annual sowing management to improve the potentail yields and provide some suggestions for annual production. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize in the NCP increased from southwest to northeast, with a significant trend towarding latitude and longitude, and showed an increasing trend in1981-2010because of the combine effects of climate change and cultivar improvement, on average was45kg hm2per year and85kg hm2per year, respectively. The total solar radiation during growth period of winter wheat was the decisive factor of its temporal trends of potential yields and the reduced radiation resulted in winter wheat production decrease. However, the temporal trends of summer maize potential yields were affected by the minimum and daily range temperature and solar radiation in the past30years, where the solar radiation was the most powerful factors. The spatial distribution of winter wheat potential yields was mainly determined by the maximum temperature and total radiation together, where growth period total radiation dominated it. The main factors affecting the spatial distribution of potential yields of summer maize were temperature, where the minimum temperature played the maximum effects.
(2) Without considering the cultivar changing, climate change shortened the length of vegetatable growth period and total growth period of winter wheat, whereas prolonged the reproductive growth period; while there was no uniform trend on the growth period of summer maize. Under climate unchange scenario, cultivar replacement could prolong the growth period of winter wheat and summer maize, especially for the reproductive growth period. Meanwhile, comparing the effects of cultivar replacement on the length of growth period of winter wheat and summer maize, summer maize was more obvious. Comparing the effects of climate change and cultivar replacement on the length of growth period, climate change dominated the change of the growth period of winter wheat, but cultivar change was the main reason for summer maize. In addiation, when cultivar was controlled, climate change reduced the potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize, but cultivar replacement could compensate this reduction and enhance potential yields.
(3) The actual yields of winter wheat and summer maize significiantly increased during1981-2010, with an average of115kg hm"2and100kg hm"2, respectively. However, yields stagnation happened in33.6%of winter wheat area in the NCP, mainly locating in Hebei and Shandong provinces; and meanwhile, in29.3%of summer maize area, yields occurred stagnation, which mainly located in the central and western Shandong, central Hebei and north-central Henan province.
(4) The area weighted average yield gaps between actual yields and potential yields of winter wheat in the NCP were3627kg hm-2, accounting for45%of potential yields. With80%of potential yields as the production ceiling which could be achieved on farmer land, the average on-farm yields in the NCP could still increase by2000kg hm-2. Meanwhile, the yield gaps of summer maize were3747kg hm-2, accounting for43%of potential yields, and the potential scope of raising maize yields was2004kg hm'2. In the past three decades, yield gaps of winter wheat has significantly decreased with a rate of69kg hm-2per year, while only a weak declined was happened in summer maize. Central Henan was the regions of low yield gaps of winter wheat, while western Shandong was summer maize's. In these regions, potential yields will be an important limiting factor for on-farm yields increase in the next decade.
(1)华北地区冬小麦和夏玉米的潜在产量均从西南向东北方向递增,具有明显的纬向和经向分布趋势,在1981-2010年间,因品种和气候的共同作用,分别每年增加45kghm-2和85kghm-2。冬小麦生长季内总辐射量是其潜在产量时间变化特征的决定因素,辐射降低导致冬小麦减产。夏玉米潜在产量时间变化特征则受其生育期内最低温度、日较差和总辐射的影响,其中总辐射占主导地位。冬小麦潜在产量的空间差异由最高温度和总辐射共同决定,其中生育期内总辐射占主导地位。影响夏玉米潜在产量空间差异的主要因素为热量,其中最低温度的影响程度最大。
(2)不考虑品种更替条件下,最近30年气候变化缩短了冬小麦全生育阶段和营养生长阶段长度,延长了生殖生长阶段长度；而对夏玉米生育阶段长度没有统一影响。在气候不变的情景下,品种更替有延长冬小麦和夏玉米生育期的作用,尤其是延长生殖生长阶段的长度,品种更替对夏玉米生育阶段长度的延长效果要大于冬小麦。对比气候变化和品种更替对生育阶段长度的影响程度,气候变化是冬小麦生育阶段长度变化的主导因素,而品种更替是夏玉米生育阶段长度变化的主导因素。品种不变的条件下,气候变化降低冬小麦和夏玉米的潜在产量,而品种更替可以有效的补偿气候变化对潜在产量的负效应。
(3)1981-2010年冬小麦和夏玉米的实际产量显著增加,平均每年增加115kghm-2和100kghm-2。目前华北地区33.6%的种植面积的冬小麦产量处于停滞,主要分布在河北省和山东省；夏玉米种植面积29.3%发生了产量停滞,主要分布于山东省中西部、河北省中部和河南省中北部。
(4)华北地区冬小麦实际产量与潜在产量之间的产量差在全区的种植面积加权平均为3627kghm-2,占潜在产量的45%,用潜在产量的80%作为实际农田的最高可获得产量,则华北地区实际产量的可提升空间为2000kg hm-2。同理夏玉米实际产量和潜在产量之间产量差为3747kghm-2,占潜在产量的43%,农户产量的可提升空间为2004kghm-2。过去30年,研究区域冬小麦产量差每年降低69kg hm-2,达到极显著水平,而夏玉米仅有微弱的下降趋势。河南中部是冬小麦产量差的低值区,而山东西部是夏玉米产量差的低值区,潜在产量将是这些地区产量提升的重要限制因子。
Because a strong increase in population and biomass energy as well as dietary changing, China food security problems have become more and more serious. To meet the growing demand for food and maintain food security, under the background of limited arable land resources, it was the only way to improve the yield per unit area. North China Plain (NCP) is one of the largest wheat and maize production regions in China, which play an important role in food security. Quantifying the size and variation of yield gaps between the actual on-farm yields and potential yields will be helpful for the further enhance the on-farm actual production. In this paper, we focused on the winter wheat and summer maize rotation systems. First, we simulated the potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize by agricultural production system simulation model (APSIM), considering the changes in variety during1981-2010. Meanwhile, a detailed analysis of the effects of climate change and cultivar replacement on potential yields was conducted. Sencond, we calculated the yield gaps of winter wheat and summer maize between on-farm yields and potential yields and its linear trends during1981-2010, based on actual yields at county level. Third, we were trying to find some efficient annual sowing management to improve the potentail yields and provide some suggestions for annual production. The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) Potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize in the NCP increased from southwest to northeast, with a significant trend towarding latitude and longitude, and showed an increasing trend in1981-2010because of the combine effects of climate change and cultivar improvement, on average was45kg hm2per year and85kg hm2per year, respectively. The total solar radiation during growth period of winter wheat was the decisive factor of its temporal trends of potential yields and the reduced radiation resulted in winter wheat production decrease. However, the temporal trends of summer maize potential yields were affected by the minimum and daily range temperature and solar radiation in the past30years, where the solar radiation was the most powerful factors. The spatial distribution of winter wheat potential yields was mainly determined by the maximum temperature and total radiation together, where growth period total radiation dominated it. The main factors affecting the spatial distribution of potential yields of summer maize were temperature, where the minimum temperature played the maximum effects.
(2) Without considering the cultivar changing, climate change shortened the length of vegetatable growth period and total growth period of winter wheat, whereas prolonged the reproductive growth period; while there was no uniform trend on the growth period of summer maize. Under climate unchange scenario, cultivar replacement could prolong the growth period of winter wheat and summer maize, especially for the reproductive growth period. Meanwhile, comparing the effects of cultivar replacement on the length of growth period of winter wheat and summer maize, summer maize was more obvious. Comparing the effects of climate change and cultivar replacement on the length of growth period, climate change dominated the change of the growth period of winter wheat, but cultivar change was the main reason for summer maize. In addiation, when cultivar was controlled, climate change reduced the potential yields of winter wheat and summer maize, but cultivar replacement could compensate this reduction and enhance potential yields.
(3) The actual yields of winter wheat and summer maize significiantly increased during1981-2010, with an average of115kg hm"2and100kg hm"2, respectively. However, yields stagnation happened in33.6%of winter wheat area in the NCP, mainly locating in Hebei and Shandong provinces; and meanwhile, in29.3%of summer maize area, yields occurred stagnation, which mainly located in the central and western Shandong, central Hebei and north-central Henan province.
(4) The area weighted average yield gaps between actual yields and potential yields of winter wheat in the NCP were3627kg hm-2, accounting for45%of potential yields. With80%of potential yields as the production ceiling which could be achieved on farmer land, the average on-farm yields in the NCP could still increase by2000kg hm-2. Meanwhile, the yield gaps of summer maize were3747kg hm-2, accounting for43%of potential yields, and the potential scope of raising maize yields was2004kg hm'2. In the past three decades, yield gaps of winter wheat has significantly decreased with a rate of69kg hm-2per year, while only a weak declined was happened in summer maize. Central Henan was the regions of low yield gaps of winter wheat, while western Shandong was summer maize's. In these regions, potential yields will be an important limiting factor for on-farm yields increase in the next decade.
引文
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