金融发展与FDI、FPI的双向流动
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摘要
标准的国际经济学理论认为资本会从收益率低的地方流向收益率高的地方,以追求利润最大化,这意味着经济增长较快、资本稀缺的新兴及发展中经济体应该吸引大量的资本流入,然而,大量的资本却从穷国流向了富国(即“卢卡斯悖论”),这种逆向资本流动现象引起了学术界的广泛关注,众多学者纷纷对此进行了深入研究。但当我们深入考察不同类型的资本流动时,我们发现不同经济体的资本流动类型却大相径庭：新兴及发展中经济体在接受了来自发达经济体大量的FDI流入的同时,又以购买其政府和机构债券、组合股权、组合债务等方式对其进行间接投资(FPI)；发达经济体却以对外直接投资的方式对新兴及发展中经济体输出资本,同时通过出售债券、组合债务及组合股权等方式进行融资。换句话说,FDI是由发达经济体流向新兴及发展中经济体(downhill),而FPI则是由新兴及发展中经济体流向发达经济体(uphill),我们将这种特殊的资本流动模式称之为“双向资本流动”。而且,由于新兴及展中经济体的FDI流入量小于其对外间接投资量,从而导致其出现资本净流出；而发达经济体却恰好相反,从而出现资本净流入,即总资本表现为从新兴及发展中经济体流向发达经济体(uphill),这也是“卢卡斯悖论”的深层次原因。
20世纪90年代以来“双向资本流动”现象越来越突出,然而,现有的文献却依然集中于逆向资本流动问题的研究,而考察不同类型资本流动的文献则大都分别考察FDI与FPI的流动,鲜有运用统一的分析框架对FDI与FPI的流动同时进行研究,这由于是FDI与FPI是两种不同类型的国际资本,二者各有其特征,再加上数据问题,因此,不仅运用统一的分析框架对二者进行的理论分析相对较少,而且相关的经验研究也很少见。
本文试图从金融发展的视角,构建一个统一的分析框架,从理论和实证两方面同时考察FDI与FPI的流动,从而较全面的考察了当前的国际资本流动特征。我们首先从投资者的投资决策入手,构建了理论模型,考察了投资者在对外直接投资与对外间接投资之间的选择,从而给出了“双向资本流动”的微观机制。在理论分析之后,我们又运用跨国数据实证考察了金融发展对FDI与FPI流动的影响,并结合我国的资本流动现状进行了分析。
本文共七章。第一章为导论,主要介绍了问题提出的背景、研究思路和结构安排以及创新与不足之处；第二章对FDI与FPI流动的相关文献进行了综述；第三章对1870年以来的国际资本流动格局的发展演变进行了归纳总结并指出了模型的现实基础；第四章构建了理论模型,分析了金融发展对FDI与FPI流动的作用机制；第五章则运用跨国数据对FDI与FPI流动的决定因素进行了实证分析；第六章是案例分析,对中国的资本流动问题进行了专门的分析；第七章对全文进行了总结,并提出了有针对性的政策建议,指出了未来的研究方向。
通过理论与经验分析,本文得出如下结论：第一,从历史演变来看,国际资本流动格局的变迁可分为五个阶段,20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动最明显的特征是FDI与FPI在不同经济体之间的“双向流动”现象；第二,金融发展通过影响投资者的投资决策而影响国际资本流动；第三,金融发展对不同类型的资本流动的作用是不同的,金融发展水平越高的国家,其对外直接投资越多,对外间接投资越少,同时,金融发展水平越高的国家,对外直接投资在总投资中的比重越高,对外间接投资在总投资中的比重越低,反之则相反；第四,我国过早的成为债权国以及我国的海外资产负债结构的非对称性等问题,均是由我国的国内金融市场不完善,金融发展严重滞后于经济发展步伐所致。
The standard international economic theory predicts that capital should flow form the region of low marginal product (MPK) to the region of high MPK, which means the emerging and developing economies (EM), which is growing rapidly and capital scarcity should attract a large amount of capital inflows, however, in practice, we do not observe such flows, which is called the "Lucas Paradox". The "Lucas Paradox" has generated extensive theoretical and empirical literatures. Researchers, including Lucas himself, have devoted themselves to the explanations for the "Lucas Paradox". However, when we look at different types of capital flows, we find that EM have been accumulating large stocks of developed countries' government bonds (or treasury bills), portfolio debt and portfolio equity going into foreign indirect investment (FPI), meanwhile, they have also been receiving large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). While, the developed countries are opposite, they export FDI, and financing by selling government and agency bonds, portfolio debt and portfolio equity. That is to say, FDI is flow from EM to developed countries (downhill), and FPI is flow from developed countries to EM (uphill), we called this type of capital flows of "two-way capital flows". What's more, FDI inflows is less than FPI outflows in EM, which result in net capital outflows, and to the contrary, the inflows of FPI in developed countries is larger than their FDI outflows, which result in net capital inflows, and this is the real reason of "Lucas paradox".
Although the "two-way capital flows" is more and more obviously since1990s, the existing literatures are still focused on the "Lucas paradox", which is the one way capital flows. While scholars who pay attention to the different types of capital flows, are often studied FDI and FPI separately. Due to the data issues and the different characteristics of FDI and FPI, not only theoretical literatures are rarely, but the empirical literatures are also rarely.
We attempt to analyze both FDI and FPI flows in the same framework, and emphasize the.effects of financial development. We first construct a theoretical model based on the investors' decisions to analyze the effects of financial development on investors'choice between FDI and FPI, so as to give the micro-mechanism of "two-way capital flows". And then analyze the FDI and FPI flows empirically using panel data. What's more, we also analyze Chinese capital flows specifically.
The whole text consists of seven parts. Chapter1states the background of the topic, research route and method, as well as the innovation points of the text. Chapter2introduces the theoretical and empirical literature of international capital flows. In Chapter3, we firstly state the evolution and characteristics of international capital flows from1870, and then points out the realistic foundation of the theoretical model. In Chapter4, we build a theoretical model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of financial development on FDI and FPI flows. In Chapter5, we use the panel data to investigate the determinants of FDI and FPI flows empirically. In Chapter6, we analyze the Chinese capital flows specifically. Chapter7briefly summarizes the conclusion and offers some policy implications.
To summarize, the conclusions are as follows. First, the evolution of international capital flows can be divided into five stages, and since the1990s, the two-way capital flows of FDI and FPI are more and more obviously. Second, the financial development affect international capital flows through influencing the investment decisions of the investors. Third, the effect of financial development on different types of capital flows is differently. Foreign direct investment is increasing with the financial development, while foreign indirect investment is decreasing with the financial development. At the same time, the share of FDI in total foreign investment is larger for developed countries than for EM, while the share of FPI in total foreign investment is just the opposite, due to the differences of financial development. Fourth, China's net creditor positions, as well as the asymmetry of the structure of foreign assets and liabilities and other issues are due to the imperfect domestic financial market, and the domestic financial development seriously lagged behind the economic development.
20世纪90年代以来“双向资本流动”现象越来越突出,然而,现有的文献却依然集中于逆向资本流动问题的研究,而考察不同类型资本流动的文献则大都分别考察FDI与FPI的流动,鲜有运用统一的分析框架对FDI与FPI的流动同时进行研究,这由于是FDI与FPI是两种不同类型的国际资本,二者各有其特征,再加上数据问题,因此,不仅运用统一的分析框架对二者进行的理论分析相对较少,而且相关的经验研究也很少见。
本文试图从金融发展的视角,构建一个统一的分析框架,从理论和实证两方面同时考察FDI与FPI的流动,从而较全面的考察了当前的国际资本流动特征。我们首先从投资者的投资决策入手,构建了理论模型,考察了投资者在对外直接投资与对外间接投资之间的选择,从而给出了“双向资本流动”的微观机制。在理论分析之后,我们又运用跨国数据实证考察了金融发展对FDI与FPI流动的影响,并结合我国的资本流动现状进行了分析。
本文共七章。第一章为导论,主要介绍了问题提出的背景、研究思路和结构安排以及创新与不足之处；第二章对FDI与FPI流动的相关文献进行了综述；第三章对1870年以来的国际资本流动格局的发展演变进行了归纳总结并指出了模型的现实基础；第四章构建了理论模型,分析了金融发展对FDI与FPI流动的作用机制；第五章则运用跨国数据对FDI与FPI流动的决定因素进行了实证分析；第六章是案例分析,对中国的资本流动问题进行了专门的分析；第七章对全文进行了总结,并提出了有针对性的政策建议,指出了未来的研究方向。
通过理论与经验分析,本文得出如下结论：第一,从历史演变来看,国际资本流动格局的变迁可分为五个阶段,20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动最明显的特征是FDI与FPI在不同经济体之间的“双向流动”现象；第二,金融发展通过影响投资者的投资决策而影响国际资本流动；第三,金融发展对不同类型的资本流动的作用是不同的,金融发展水平越高的国家,其对外直接投资越多,对外间接投资越少,同时,金融发展水平越高的国家,对外直接投资在总投资中的比重越高,对外间接投资在总投资中的比重越低,反之则相反；第四,我国过早的成为债权国以及我国的海外资产负债结构的非对称性等问题,均是由我国的国内金融市场不完善,金融发展严重滞后于经济发展步伐所致。
The standard international economic theory predicts that capital should flow form the region of low marginal product (MPK) to the region of high MPK, which means the emerging and developing economies (EM), which is growing rapidly and capital scarcity should attract a large amount of capital inflows, however, in practice, we do not observe such flows, which is called the "Lucas Paradox". The "Lucas Paradox" has generated extensive theoretical and empirical literatures. Researchers, including Lucas himself, have devoted themselves to the explanations for the "Lucas Paradox". However, when we look at different types of capital flows, we find that EM have been accumulating large stocks of developed countries' government bonds (or treasury bills), portfolio debt and portfolio equity going into foreign indirect investment (FPI), meanwhile, they have also been receiving large inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). While, the developed countries are opposite, they export FDI, and financing by selling government and agency bonds, portfolio debt and portfolio equity. That is to say, FDI is flow from EM to developed countries (downhill), and FPI is flow from developed countries to EM (uphill), we called this type of capital flows of "two-way capital flows". What's more, FDI inflows is less than FPI outflows in EM, which result in net capital outflows, and to the contrary, the inflows of FPI in developed countries is larger than their FDI outflows, which result in net capital inflows, and this is the real reason of "Lucas paradox".
Although the "two-way capital flows" is more and more obviously since1990s, the existing literatures are still focused on the "Lucas paradox", which is the one way capital flows. While scholars who pay attention to the different types of capital flows, are often studied FDI and FPI separately. Due to the data issues and the different characteristics of FDI and FPI, not only theoretical literatures are rarely, but the empirical literatures are also rarely.
We attempt to analyze both FDI and FPI flows in the same framework, and emphasize the.effects of financial development. We first construct a theoretical model based on the investors' decisions to analyze the effects of financial development on investors'choice between FDI and FPI, so as to give the micro-mechanism of "two-way capital flows". And then analyze the FDI and FPI flows empirically using panel data. What's more, we also analyze Chinese capital flows specifically.
The whole text consists of seven parts. Chapter1states the background of the topic, research route and method, as well as the innovation points of the text. Chapter2introduces the theoretical and empirical literature of international capital flows. In Chapter3, we firstly state the evolution and characteristics of international capital flows from1870, and then points out the realistic foundation of the theoretical model. In Chapter4, we build a theoretical model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of financial development on FDI and FPI flows. In Chapter5, we use the panel data to investigate the determinants of FDI and FPI flows empirically. In Chapter6, we analyze the Chinese capital flows specifically. Chapter7briefly summarizes the conclusion and offers some policy implications.
To summarize, the conclusions are as follows. First, the evolution of international capital flows can be divided into five stages, and since the1990s, the two-way capital flows of FDI and FPI are more and more obviously. Second, the financial development affect international capital flows through influencing the investment decisions of the investors. Third, the effect of financial development on different types of capital flows is differently. Foreign direct investment is increasing with the financial development, while foreign indirect investment is decreasing with the financial development. At the same time, the share of FDI in total foreign investment is larger for developed countries than for EM, while the share of FPI in total foreign investment is just the opposite, due to the differences of financial development. Fourth, China's net creditor positions, as well as the asymmetry of the structure of foreign assets and liabilities and other issues are due to the imperfect domestic financial market, and the domestic financial development seriously lagged behind the economic development.
引文
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