中国城市化进程中城镇居民收入差距问题研究
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摘要
改革开放以后,我国人口流动逐渐频繁起来,农村人口不断进入城镇就业,大大促进了我国的城市化进程。但在此过程中,居民收入不平等问题日趋严重。作为居民收入不平等的一个组成部分,城镇收入不平等的程度在不断上升,对居民收入不平等的影响越来越大。当在城市化和国家扶持农村发展的共同作用下,农村、城乡差距状况已有明显改善的时候,城市却出现了大量贫困人口,城镇收入差距问题引起了人们的高度关注。
在城市化过程中,大量农村劳动力进入城市,这可能会给城市劳动力市场的工资和就业带来冲击,进而影响城镇居民的收入。但也有学者指出,我国城镇劳动力市场的分割,在某种程度上保护了城镇劳动力市场,缓冲了外部冲击。城市化进程中人口流动对城镇劳动力市场究竟起着怎样的影响?城镇居民收入差距受到城市化的影响究竟如何变动?本文主要就这些问题进行分析。全文分为七章：第一章导言主要是提出问题、研究背景及意义。第二章是理论基础和文献综述。第三章对我国城市化和居民收入差距的现状进行描述,指出城镇居民收入差距在居民收入差距中的重要性。第四章构建理论模型及用计量分析城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响。第五章以非正规部门就业(城市化过程中的显著特征)与城镇居民收入差距的计量分析进一步揭示了城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响。第六章阐述了收入差距的经济社会影响,总结了国外缩小收入差距的经验。第七章是全文的结论及相应的政策措施。
本文的主要研究结论为：
第一,城镇居民收入差距重要性的在上升。随着人口流动和城市化的进程,我国的收入差距特征在发生转变,城镇居民收入差距对居民收入差距的贡献越来越大。
第二,城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响是先扩大后缩小的倒U过程。城市化过程中,农村劳动力大量进入城市就业。他们对城镇次级劳动力市场的工资和就业带来冲击,而对城镇高级劳动力市场的影响较小,因而造成城镇两个劳动力市场工资收入差距的扩大,进而扩大了城镇居民收入差距。当城镇次级劳动力市场的工资开始快速上升,逐渐接近城市高级劳动力市场的收入水平时,城镇居民收入差距将逐步缩小
第三,第四章的数理模型推导和计量分析都表明：城市化进程中存在城镇居民收入差距的库兹涅茨倒U假说。城市化对城镇居民收入差距的作用有着长期和短期两种不同的影响效果。从短期看,城市化会加大城镇居民收入差距,而长期则起着缩小的作用。从数理模型中我们还得到了城市化最终缩小城镇居民收入差距的两个影响路径,即非正规部门比重的扩大和正规部门比重的扩大都可以对城镇居民收入差距起着先扩大后缩小的影响。但由于城市正规部门难以在经济发展较低的阶段持续开放、扩大。因而城市正规部门缩小收入差距的路径更多的是具有理论上的意义。
第四,使用现有的CHNS城镇居民数据,通过分位数回归和反事实分析发现：目前,我国非正规就业对城镇居民收入差距的影响还处在扩大过程中。两个时期(T0-T1和T1-T2)的非正规就业比重在不断上升,城镇居民收入差距也在不断扩大。但是反事实分析结果表明,这两个时期导致城镇收入差距的原因不同：第一个时期,城镇居民收入差距的扩大主要是由非正规部门内部的收入差距造成。第二个时期,城镇居民收入差距的扩大主要是由正规部门和非正规部门间的收入差距造成。
第五,通过第五章的计量分析,我们勾勒出以非正规部门扩大为标志的城市化进程对我国城镇收入差距影响的完整过程：非正规部门导致的城镇居民收入差距扩大阶段→正规部门与非正规部门间收入差距导致的城镇居民收入差距扩大阶段→正规部门与非正规部门间收入差距缩小导致的城镇居民收入差距缩小阶段。由于我国城市改革对两部门的影响不同步：在早期,城市非正规部门的收益率高,但收入的方差大。城镇非正规部门是导致城镇居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。第二期,正规部门的改革提高了该部门的收入率,而非正规部门的收入率下降。两部门间的收入拉大导致了城镇居民收入差距的扩大。目前的CHNS数据只能体现出前两个阶段的情况。可以预知的是,随着时间的推移,进入非正规部门的剩余劳动力逐渐减少,非正规部门的收益率将再次上升；而正规部门的收入在国家破除垄断及调节收入的政策下增长放缓,两者共同的作用是城镇两部门间收入差距逐步缩小,进入两部门收入差距缩小的居民收入差距改善阶段。
After the reform and opening up, China's population floates increasing gradually.and the rural population goes into the urban for a job, which greatly promotes the process of China's city. But our residents income inequality is becoming a serious problem in the process, the urban income inequality is also rising as a part of the income inequality. Compared to the rural income inequality and the income inequality between urban and rural areas, the urban income inequality rise faster and have a more and more impact on residents'income inequality. There are a large number of poor people in the city and the urban income gap attract people's attention. When the rural income gap and the gap between the urban and the rural gap have changed by the role of the process of city and state's support.
In the process of city, a large number of rural labor force goes into the city, which may bring an impact on wage and employment to the city labor market, thereby affecting the income of urban residents and expanding the urban income gap. But some scholars have pointed out, to some extent, the segmented urban labor market in China has protected the urban labor market and reduced the impact of external buffer. what kind of impact do the population flow on the urban labor market in the process of city?How the urban income gap change affected by the process of city? The paper mainly analyses on these issues. The full text is divided into seven chapters:the first chapter is the introduction part including the research problem, the background and the significance. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The third chapter describes the condition of our country city and income gap and points out the importance of urban income gap in residents' income gap. Constructing the theoretical model and quantitative analysis on the influence of income gap by the process of city in chapter fourth. The fifth chapter quantitative analysis the informal employment and income gap. The sixth chapter summarizes the social and economic impact of the income gap, lists the experience of foreign countries to narrow the income gap. The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the paper and the corresponding policy measures.
The main conclusions of the paper are as followes:
First, the importance of urban income gap is on the rise. As the population How and the city process, the urban income gap have more contribution to the residents' income gap.
Second, the urban income gap is enlarged at first and then narrowed. influenced by the process of city. Large rural labor is employed into the city, which impact more on the secondary of labor market and the local labor force in the secondary urban labor market tends to reduce wages rather than withdrawal from the labour market to deal with the impact. So the income gap between urban between the two markets expandes which leads to the rise of urban income gap. When the rural labor force into the city declining, the secondary labor market wage in citiy begins to rise rapidly, closing to the wage in senior labor market, which narrows the urban income gap.
Third, mathematical model and econometric analysisin the fourth chapter show that, Kuznets inverted U hypothesis exists in the city modernization. There are two different kinds of effects in long-term and short-term on the urban income gap by the urbanization. In the short term, the urbanization will increase the urban income gap, but long-term plays a reduced role. From the mathematical model we can get two paths to narrow the urban income gap, that is,expand the informal sector or the formal sector can all reduce the urban income gap. But because the formal sector is difficult to remain open and expand when one country is in the low stage of economic development. Therefore, the role to narrow the city income gap by expand the fomal department is only a theoretical path.
Fourth, we find urban residents by Quantile Regression and counterfactual analysis using the prior year of CHNS data:the effects of informal employment on the urban income gap is still in the rising process in China now. The proportion of the informal employment and the urban income gap are all on the rise in the two periods. However, counterfactual analysis showes that different cause of urban income gap between the two periods:the first period, the income gap within the infonnal sector cause the expansion of urban income gap, while the second period, the income gap between the fonnal sector and the informal sector cause the expansion of urban income gap.
Fifth, we can outline the complete process of the effect of the informal sector on China's urban income gap, that is phase of the urban income gap caused by the infonnal sector, the income gap expansion between the fonnal sector and the informal sector, the income gap narrowing between the formal sector and the informal sector. Because our country city refonn is not synchronized, which causes different income rate between the two sectors and different stages of income gap process. Although the current CHNS data only reflect the situation of the first two stages.we can predict that the stage of narrowing urban income gap. Because the informal sector labor gradually reduce and the income rate of the informal sector will rise again, while the formal sector income slowdown by a series of regulatory policy in the country with the passage of time, they work together to narrow the income gap between two interdepartmental gradually.
在城市化过程中,大量农村劳动力进入城市,这可能会给城市劳动力市场的工资和就业带来冲击,进而影响城镇居民的收入。但也有学者指出,我国城镇劳动力市场的分割,在某种程度上保护了城镇劳动力市场,缓冲了外部冲击。城市化进程中人口流动对城镇劳动力市场究竟起着怎样的影响?城镇居民收入差距受到城市化的影响究竟如何变动?本文主要就这些问题进行分析。全文分为七章：第一章导言主要是提出问题、研究背景及意义。第二章是理论基础和文献综述。第三章对我国城市化和居民收入差距的现状进行描述,指出城镇居民收入差距在居民收入差距中的重要性。第四章构建理论模型及用计量分析城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响。第五章以非正规部门就业(城市化过程中的显著特征)与城镇居民收入差距的计量分析进一步揭示了城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响。第六章阐述了收入差距的经济社会影响,总结了国外缩小收入差距的经验。第七章是全文的结论及相应的政策措施。
本文的主要研究结论为：
第一,城镇居民收入差距重要性的在上升。随着人口流动和城市化的进程,我国的收入差距特征在发生转变,城镇居民收入差距对居民收入差距的贡献越来越大。
第二,城市化对城镇居民收入差距的影响是先扩大后缩小的倒U过程。城市化过程中,农村劳动力大量进入城市就业。他们对城镇次级劳动力市场的工资和就业带来冲击,而对城镇高级劳动力市场的影响较小,因而造成城镇两个劳动力市场工资收入差距的扩大,进而扩大了城镇居民收入差距。当城镇次级劳动力市场的工资开始快速上升,逐渐接近城市高级劳动力市场的收入水平时,城镇居民收入差距将逐步缩小
第三,第四章的数理模型推导和计量分析都表明：城市化进程中存在城镇居民收入差距的库兹涅茨倒U假说。城市化对城镇居民收入差距的作用有着长期和短期两种不同的影响效果。从短期看,城市化会加大城镇居民收入差距,而长期则起着缩小的作用。从数理模型中我们还得到了城市化最终缩小城镇居民收入差距的两个影响路径,即非正规部门比重的扩大和正规部门比重的扩大都可以对城镇居民收入差距起着先扩大后缩小的影响。但由于城市正规部门难以在经济发展较低的阶段持续开放、扩大。因而城市正规部门缩小收入差距的路径更多的是具有理论上的意义。
第四,使用现有的CHNS城镇居民数据,通过分位数回归和反事实分析发现：目前,我国非正规就业对城镇居民收入差距的影响还处在扩大过程中。两个时期(T0-T1和T1-T2)的非正规就业比重在不断上升,城镇居民收入差距也在不断扩大。但是反事实分析结果表明,这两个时期导致城镇收入差距的原因不同：第一个时期,城镇居民收入差距的扩大主要是由非正规部门内部的收入差距造成。第二个时期,城镇居民收入差距的扩大主要是由正规部门和非正规部门间的收入差距造成。
第五,通过第五章的计量分析,我们勾勒出以非正规部门扩大为标志的城市化进程对我国城镇收入差距影响的完整过程：非正规部门导致的城镇居民收入差距扩大阶段→正规部门与非正规部门间收入差距导致的城镇居民收入差距扩大阶段→正规部门与非正规部门间收入差距缩小导致的城镇居民收入差距缩小阶段。由于我国城市改革对两部门的影响不同步：在早期,城市非正规部门的收益率高,但收入的方差大。城镇非正规部门是导致城镇居民收入差距扩大的主要原因。第二期,正规部门的改革提高了该部门的收入率,而非正规部门的收入率下降。两部门间的收入拉大导致了城镇居民收入差距的扩大。目前的CHNS数据只能体现出前两个阶段的情况。可以预知的是,随着时间的推移,进入非正规部门的剩余劳动力逐渐减少,非正规部门的收益率将再次上升；而正规部门的收入在国家破除垄断及调节收入的政策下增长放缓,两者共同的作用是城镇两部门间收入差距逐步缩小,进入两部门收入差距缩小的居民收入差距改善阶段。
After the reform and opening up, China's population floates increasing gradually.and the rural population goes into the urban for a job, which greatly promotes the process of China's city. But our residents income inequality is becoming a serious problem in the process, the urban income inequality is also rising as a part of the income inequality. Compared to the rural income inequality and the income inequality between urban and rural areas, the urban income inequality rise faster and have a more and more impact on residents'income inequality. There are a large number of poor people in the city and the urban income gap attract people's attention. When the rural income gap and the gap between the urban and the rural gap have changed by the role of the process of city and state's support.
In the process of city, a large number of rural labor force goes into the city, which may bring an impact on wage and employment to the city labor market, thereby affecting the income of urban residents and expanding the urban income gap. But some scholars have pointed out, to some extent, the segmented urban labor market in China has protected the urban labor market and reduced the impact of external buffer. what kind of impact do the population flow on the urban labor market in the process of city?How the urban income gap change affected by the process of city? The paper mainly analyses on these issues. The full text is divided into seven chapters:the first chapter is the introduction part including the research problem, the background and the significance. The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. The third chapter describes the condition of our country city and income gap and points out the importance of urban income gap in residents' income gap. Constructing the theoretical model and quantitative analysis on the influence of income gap by the process of city in chapter fourth. The fifth chapter quantitative analysis the informal employment and income gap. The sixth chapter summarizes the social and economic impact of the income gap, lists the experience of foreign countries to narrow the income gap. The seventh chapter is the conclusion of the paper and the corresponding policy measures.
The main conclusions of the paper are as followes:
First, the importance of urban income gap is on the rise. As the population How and the city process, the urban income gap have more contribution to the residents' income gap.
Second, the urban income gap is enlarged at first and then narrowed. influenced by the process of city. Large rural labor is employed into the city, which impact more on the secondary of labor market and the local labor force in the secondary urban labor market tends to reduce wages rather than withdrawal from the labour market to deal with the impact. So the income gap between urban between the two markets expandes which leads to the rise of urban income gap. When the rural labor force into the city declining, the secondary labor market wage in citiy begins to rise rapidly, closing to the wage in senior labor market, which narrows the urban income gap.
Third, mathematical model and econometric analysisin the fourth chapter show that, Kuznets inverted U hypothesis exists in the city modernization. There are two different kinds of effects in long-term and short-term on the urban income gap by the urbanization. In the short term, the urbanization will increase the urban income gap, but long-term plays a reduced role. From the mathematical model we can get two paths to narrow the urban income gap, that is,expand the informal sector or the formal sector can all reduce the urban income gap. But because the formal sector is difficult to remain open and expand when one country is in the low stage of economic development. Therefore, the role to narrow the city income gap by expand the fomal department is only a theoretical path.
Fourth, we find urban residents by Quantile Regression and counterfactual analysis using the prior year of CHNS data:the effects of informal employment on the urban income gap is still in the rising process in China now. The proportion of the informal employment and the urban income gap are all on the rise in the two periods. However, counterfactual analysis showes that different cause of urban income gap between the two periods:the first period, the income gap within the infonnal sector cause the expansion of urban income gap, while the second period, the income gap between the fonnal sector and the informal sector cause the expansion of urban income gap.
Fifth, we can outline the complete process of the effect of the informal sector on China's urban income gap, that is phase of the urban income gap caused by the infonnal sector, the income gap expansion between the fonnal sector and the informal sector, the income gap narrowing between the formal sector and the informal sector. Because our country city refonn is not synchronized, which causes different income rate between the two sectors and different stages of income gap process. Although the current CHNS data only reflect the situation of the first two stages.we can predict that the stage of narrowing urban income gap. Because the informal sector labor gradually reduce and the income rate of the informal sector will rise again, while the formal sector income slowdown by a series of regulatory policy in the country with the passage of time, they work together to narrow the income gap between two interdepartmental gradually.
引文
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