中国人口年龄结构转变对经济增长的影响研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济连续30多年高速增长,创造了人类经济增长史上的奇迹。在此期间,受益于计划生育政策,中国人口抚养比(0—14岁少儿人口和65岁及以上老年人口总量与15—64岁劳动年龄人口数量之比)持续下降,由1982年的62.6%下降到2010年的34.2%。人口抚养比的下降对经济增长做出了重要贡献,被称为“人口红利”。但随着我国人口老龄化趋势不断加剧,人口的“结构性红利”优势正在消退。本文将从人口老龄化和劳动力年龄结构变化视角考察人口年龄结构转变与经济增长的关系,期望从中发现人口老龄化过程及与该过程相伴随的劳动力年龄结构改变对宏观经济增长影响的途径、作用方向和大小,以便更全面地考察人口年龄结构转变的宏观经济效应。经济增长除了规模、数量上的水平增长(本文将其称为“水平效应”)之外,还需要关注其增长质量和增长的可持续性,而全要素生产率正是衡量经济增长质量和可持续性的重要工具。因此,我们还将全要素生产率增长纳入研究视野,分析人口年龄结构转变是否能带来“增长效应”。最后,经济增长通常还伴随着周期性波动。人口年龄结构转变会影响人口劳动参与率的变化,进而对经济波动产生影响。本文的第三个研究视角即从人口年龄结构转变角度对经济增长波动性入手,研究其能否带来“周期效应”。
全文共分为六章：第一章为绪论,说明了本文研究的理论和现实背景、研究思路和内容结构、创新性与不足等；第二章在评述相关理论和研究文献的基础上,提出本文的研究框架,为后文的研究奠定基础；第三章是人口年龄结构转变对经济的“水平效应”分析；第四章是从全要素生产率角度,考察人口年龄结构转变对经济的“增长效应”的影响；第五章对人口年龄结构转变是否带来经济的“周期效应”进行了理论和实证研究；第六章为本文的主要研究结论、政策建议。具体来说,本文的理论和实证研究结论主要有以下几点：
首先,从“水平效应”看,改革开放以来老年人口比重以及老年抚养比的上升促进了经济增长,我们主要从人口转变过程中人力资本投资、储蓄率变化角度等对此现象进行了解释；通过细分劳动力年龄结构的研究发现,不同年龄段劳动力人口比重的上升对经济增长存在着显著的差异,总体发现,随着人口年龄结构的变化,劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响经历先上升而后不断下降的趋势,并且45-54岁劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响最大。考虑到劳动力大规模流动的现实,预计人口年龄结构转变对经济增长的影响可能存在“空间溢出”效应,检验发现分年龄段劳动力人口比重的变化对经济增长存在负的“空间溢出”效应。
其次,从“增长效应”视角看,我们首先基于Ray等(1997)提出的方法对全要素生产率进行了测算,总体发现我国1990-2010年间全要素生产率经历了上升的趋势,并且存在区域差异,东部地区全要素生产率的增长要大于中部地区,而中部地区要大于西部地区。随后的实证检验证实,老年人口比重以及老年抚养比的上升能够促进全要素生产率增长,我们主要从人口转变过程中人力资本投资、资本替代劳动等角度对此现象进行了解释；从细分劳动力年龄结构的研究发现,不同年龄段劳动力人口比重的上升对全要素生产率的影响存在着显著差异,总体上,随着人口年龄的变化,劳动力人口比重上升对全要素生产率的影响经历先上升而后不断下降的趋势,并且35-44岁劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响最大。最后,还是基于第三章的思路,我们使用空间数据分析方法对人口年龄结构转变的“增长效应”的空间溢出性进行了分析。
最后,从“周期效应看”,我们观察了分年龄段劳动力的劳动参与率波动情况,发现年轻劳动力和年老劳动力的劳动参与率波动较大,然后通过一个扩展的RBC模型从理论上证明了非熟练劳动力(年轻劳动力与老年劳动力)的周期波动大于熟练劳动力(中年劳动力)。在使用宏观经济学中常用的四种滤波方法测算经济波动的基础上,我们对劳动力年龄结构与经济周期波动的关系进行了检验。发现的结论有：将15-24岁和55-64岁劳动力人口加总将其除以劳动力总人口,结果表明这两组劳动力人口的增加能够助推经济的周期波动,不利于经济的稳定；(2)为了观察分年龄组劳动力人口对经济波动的影响,我们将全部年龄劳动力人口进行了回归,结果依然表明年轻劳动力和年老劳动力是推动经济周期波动的主要因素,而其他年龄组劳动力是减缓经济周期波动的安全阀。结合这些结论,我们说明了我国自90年代中后期以来,人口因素在熨平经济波动中的作用。
Since China's reform and opening up, the continuous high speed economic growth for thirty years has created a miracle in the history of economic growth. In the meantime, benefit from the family planning policy, and China's population denpendency ratio have continued to decline(the ratio of the total population of the children from0to14years old and the aged people over65years old and the total population of working age population between15and64). Calculated by the census data, the population denpendency ratio of China was62.6%in1982, but it dropped to34.2%in2010. The decline of population denpendency ratio has made great contribution to economic growth, which is called "demographic dividend". However, with the growing trend of China's aging population, the "demographic dividend" advantage is declining. From the perspective of population aging and labor force's age structure change, this dissertation examines the relationship between age structure of the population and economic growth. We expect to find how the process of population aging and the process of labor force's age structure changes will affect economic growth, in order to fully evaluate the effects of the age structure change of the population on economic growth. Economic growth is not just the expansion of the economies size, we also need to focus on the quality of growth and the sustainability of growth, and total factor productivity is the important tool that can measure the quality and sustainability of economic growth. Therefore, the total factor productivity is included in the dissertation to analyze whether the transformation of population age structure can bring the "growing effect". Finally, because economic growth is usually accompanied by cyclical fluctuations, population age structure change is usually accompanied by the changes of labor force participation. The third perspective of the dissertation is to investigate whether the population age structure can bring growth volatility, which is the "cyclical effect" of economic growth.
This dissertation consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the preface which is about the theory and research background, research route and innovation. The second chapter includes a brief description of the basic theory in the population economics, economic growth and so on; a review of important theoretical and empirical literature; the research framework which lays a foundation for the next contents. In the third chapter, we study whether the age structure of population has a "level effects" on economic growth. The forth chapter investigates how the age structure transition will affect "growth effects" of economic growth. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the "business cycle effects" on economy made by population age structure transition from theoretical analysis and empirical approach. The last chapter is a brief introduction of primary conclusions, policy suggestions of this dissertation. Specifically, the main theoretical and empirical conclusions of this dissertation are as follows.
First, viewed from the "level effects", the proportion of aging population and old-age dependency can boost economic growth. We explain this phenomenon from human capital investment and saving behaviour in the process of demographic transition. In the second section analysis, we find that different age groups of labor force population have different effects on economic growth. In sum, with the change of population age structure, the share of working-age population will have an increasing effect on economic growth.We also found that the relationship between the share of working-age population and economic growth is "inverse-U shape", and that45-54years-old labor force have the greatest impact on economic growth. In consideration of the large-scale labor mobility, we forecast that population age structure transition will generate a "spatial spillover" effect on economic growth. The further study is to test the spatial spillover effect.
Second, in view of "growth effects", we calculate total factor productivity (TFP) with the approach presented by Ray et al (1997), and then find that TFP experienced a rising trend in1990-2010. Looked from the regions, the TFP growth in the eastern region is greater than the middle region, and the TFP growth in the middle region is greater than the western region. The empirical test shows that the increasing proportion of aging population and old-agedependencyratio can promote the TFP growth. We offered explanation of this phenomenon from the point of human capital investment and the substitution of capital for labor in demographic transition process. In the second part analysis, we find that different age groups of labor force population have different effects on TFP growth. Totally, with the change of population age structure, the increasing working-age population will have an influence on TFP growth, namely, taking on the trend of rising first, and then dropping continuously, and that35-44year-old labor force have the greatest impact on TFP. In the end, based on the third chapter, we use spatial analysis method to investigate the "spatial spillover" of age structure on TFP growth
Finally, from the perspective of "business cycle effects", we first investigate labor participation rate fluctuation of the labor force by age group. And we observe that the labor participation rate fluctuation of the unskilled labor force is bigger than the skilled labor force. Through an extension of RBC model, we theoretically prove that the cycle fluctuation in the young labor force is greater than the middle-aged. Based on the measurement of economic fluctuations with four kinds of filtering method which are commonly used in macroeconomics, we examine the relationship between labor age structure and business cycle fluctuation. The first result is the share of the working population of age in15to24and55to64, the increase of two groups of working population will boost economic cycle fluctuation; the second test is that we use the whole age structure of labor force to observe the effect on economic fluctuations, the results still show that young and aging working force is the main factor that leads to economic cycle fluctuation, while the other group is slow down the economic cycle fluctuation.
全文共分为六章：第一章为绪论,说明了本文研究的理论和现实背景、研究思路和内容结构、创新性与不足等；第二章在评述相关理论和研究文献的基础上,提出本文的研究框架,为后文的研究奠定基础；第三章是人口年龄结构转变对经济的“水平效应”分析；第四章是从全要素生产率角度,考察人口年龄结构转变对经济的“增长效应”的影响；第五章对人口年龄结构转变是否带来经济的“周期效应”进行了理论和实证研究；第六章为本文的主要研究结论、政策建议。具体来说,本文的理论和实证研究结论主要有以下几点：
首先,从“水平效应”看,改革开放以来老年人口比重以及老年抚养比的上升促进了经济增长,我们主要从人口转变过程中人力资本投资、储蓄率变化角度等对此现象进行了解释；通过细分劳动力年龄结构的研究发现,不同年龄段劳动力人口比重的上升对经济增长存在着显著的差异,总体发现,随着人口年龄结构的变化,劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响经历先上升而后不断下降的趋势,并且45-54岁劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响最大。考虑到劳动力大规模流动的现实,预计人口年龄结构转变对经济增长的影响可能存在“空间溢出”效应,检验发现分年龄段劳动力人口比重的变化对经济增长存在负的“空间溢出”效应。
其次,从“增长效应”视角看,我们首先基于Ray等(1997)提出的方法对全要素生产率进行了测算,总体发现我国1990-2010年间全要素生产率经历了上升的趋势,并且存在区域差异,东部地区全要素生产率的增长要大于中部地区,而中部地区要大于西部地区。随后的实证检验证实,老年人口比重以及老年抚养比的上升能够促进全要素生产率增长,我们主要从人口转变过程中人力资本投资、资本替代劳动等角度对此现象进行了解释；从细分劳动力年龄结构的研究发现,不同年龄段劳动力人口比重的上升对全要素生产率的影响存在着显著差异,总体上,随着人口年龄的变化,劳动力人口比重上升对全要素生产率的影响经历先上升而后不断下降的趋势,并且35-44岁劳动力人口比重上升对经济增长的影响最大。最后,还是基于第三章的思路,我们使用空间数据分析方法对人口年龄结构转变的“增长效应”的空间溢出性进行了分析。
最后,从“周期效应看”,我们观察了分年龄段劳动力的劳动参与率波动情况,发现年轻劳动力和年老劳动力的劳动参与率波动较大,然后通过一个扩展的RBC模型从理论上证明了非熟练劳动力(年轻劳动力与老年劳动力)的周期波动大于熟练劳动力(中年劳动力)。在使用宏观经济学中常用的四种滤波方法测算经济波动的基础上,我们对劳动力年龄结构与经济周期波动的关系进行了检验。发现的结论有：将15-24岁和55-64岁劳动力人口加总将其除以劳动力总人口,结果表明这两组劳动力人口的增加能够助推经济的周期波动,不利于经济的稳定；(2)为了观察分年龄组劳动力人口对经济波动的影响,我们将全部年龄劳动力人口进行了回归,结果依然表明年轻劳动力和年老劳动力是推动经济周期波动的主要因素,而其他年龄组劳动力是减缓经济周期波动的安全阀。结合这些结论,我们说明了我国自90年代中后期以来,人口因素在熨平经济波动中的作用。
Since China's reform and opening up, the continuous high speed economic growth for thirty years has created a miracle in the history of economic growth. In the meantime, benefit from the family planning policy, and China's population denpendency ratio have continued to decline(the ratio of the total population of the children from0to14years old and the aged people over65years old and the total population of working age population between15and64). Calculated by the census data, the population denpendency ratio of China was62.6%in1982, but it dropped to34.2%in2010. The decline of population denpendency ratio has made great contribution to economic growth, which is called "demographic dividend". However, with the growing trend of China's aging population, the "demographic dividend" advantage is declining. From the perspective of population aging and labor force's age structure change, this dissertation examines the relationship between age structure of the population and economic growth. We expect to find how the process of population aging and the process of labor force's age structure changes will affect economic growth, in order to fully evaluate the effects of the age structure change of the population on economic growth. Economic growth is not just the expansion of the economies size, we also need to focus on the quality of growth and the sustainability of growth, and total factor productivity is the important tool that can measure the quality and sustainability of economic growth. Therefore, the total factor productivity is included in the dissertation to analyze whether the transformation of population age structure can bring the "growing effect". Finally, because economic growth is usually accompanied by cyclical fluctuations, population age structure change is usually accompanied by the changes of labor force participation. The third perspective of the dissertation is to investigate whether the population age structure can bring growth volatility, which is the "cyclical effect" of economic growth.
This dissertation consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the preface which is about the theory and research background, research route and innovation. The second chapter includes a brief description of the basic theory in the population economics, economic growth and so on; a review of important theoretical and empirical literature; the research framework which lays a foundation for the next contents. In the third chapter, we study whether the age structure of population has a "level effects" on economic growth. The forth chapter investigates how the age structure transition will affect "growth effects" of economic growth. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the "business cycle effects" on economy made by population age structure transition from theoretical analysis and empirical approach. The last chapter is a brief introduction of primary conclusions, policy suggestions of this dissertation. Specifically, the main theoretical and empirical conclusions of this dissertation are as follows.
First, viewed from the "level effects", the proportion of aging population and old-age dependency can boost economic growth. We explain this phenomenon from human capital investment and saving behaviour in the process of demographic transition. In the second section analysis, we find that different age groups of labor force population have different effects on economic growth. In sum, with the change of population age structure, the share of working-age population will have an increasing effect on economic growth.We also found that the relationship between the share of working-age population and economic growth is "inverse-U shape", and that45-54years-old labor force have the greatest impact on economic growth. In consideration of the large-scale labor mobility, we forecast that population age structure transition will generate a "spatial spillover" effect on economic growth. The further study is to test the spatial spillover effect.
Second, in view of "growth effects", we calculate total factor productivity (TFP) with the approach presented by Ray et al (1997), and then find that TFP experienced a rising trend in1990-2010. Looked from the regions, the TFP growth in the eastern region is greater than the middle region, and the TFP growth in the middle region is greater than the western region. The empirical test shows that the increasing proportion of aging population and old-agedependencyratio can promote the TFP growth. We offered explanation of this phenomenon from the point of human capital investment and the substitution of capital for labor in demographic transition process. In the second part analysis, we find that different age groups of labor force population have different effects on TFP growth. Totally, with the change of population age structure, the increasing working-age population will have an influence on TFP growth, namely, taking on the trend of rising first, and then dropping continuously, and that35-44year-old labor force have the greatest impact on TFP. In the end, based on the third chapter, we use spatial analysis method to investigate the "spatial spillover" of age structure on TFP growth
Finally, from the perspective of "business cycle effects", we first investigate labor participation rate fluctuation of the labor force by age group. And we observe that the labor participation rate fluctuation of the unskilled labor force is bigger than the skilled labor force. Through an extension of RBC model, we theoretically prove that the cycle fluctuation in the young labor force is greater than the middle-aged. Based on the measurement of economic fluctuations with four kinds of filtering method which are commonly used in macroeconomics, we examine the relationship between labor age structure and business cycle fluctuation. The first result is the share of the working population of age in15to24and55to64, the increase of two groups of working population will boost economic cycle fluctuation; the second test is that we use the whole age structure of labor force to observe the effect on economic fluctuations, the results still show that young and aging working force is the main factor that leads to economic cycle fluctuation, while the other group is slow down the economic cycle fluctuation.
引文
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② 熟练劳动力通常是指同一工种内具有丰富经验和熟练技术的劳动力。显然,年轻劳动力群体(本文主要指15-24岁劳动力1由于刚刚进入劳动力市场,工作经验不足及技术上还不够娴熟,而老年劳动力群体(本文指55-64岁劳动力)由于身体机能下降,会使得的技术熟练程度低于中青年劳动力的,因此我们这里假定15-24岁和55-64岁劳动力群体为非熟练劳动力具有合理性。
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