义乌小商品采购风险智能评价和预警方法研究
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摘要
本文在继续维持、并巩固义乌小商品市场国际竞争力的同时，有鉴于市场上参差不齐的中小采购商和国际货代企业的相关数据往往包含大量模糊的、不完备的和不确定的信息这一特点，针对义乌小商品采购商和第三方物流企业（以国际货代企业为代表）构建信用评价指标体系，建立信用预警原型系统，为义乌小商品市场上广大的中小企业科学、合理、及时地评价和选择贸易合作伙伴提供参考标准，极大地提高义乌中小企业应对信用风险的能力，减少可能由此带来的巨大经济损失，促进义乌市小商品市场健康、持续、繁荣发展。
具体研究内容包括：
第一章：绪论。
本章在分析义乌小商品外贸的研究背景之后，从评价指标体系的构建、评价方法的选择，以及风险预警系统的建立等三个方面对国内外研究成果进行了大致的归纳与总结，然后简明扼要地介绍了论文的研究意义、研究目的、研究方法、研究内容和研究思路。
第二章：义乌小商品采购特征。
首先，本章总结了义乌小商品采购市场的发展历程及其阶段特征；接着，通过描述义乌企业集群的现状凸显出明显的竞争力优势，同时，也通过回顾义乌独特的商业文化背景辨析其与小市场的渊源，从而剖析义乌小商品采购市场的成因机制；最后，通过总结义乌小商品采购的现状及其特征，一方面展现其外贸出口的强势地位，另一方面也表达出信用风险的巨大隐忧。
第三章：义乌小商品采购的信用风险。
本章首先采用文献综述的方式，介绍了供应链风险、供应链风险传递的相关知识，同时叙述了外贸供应链以及中小外贸供应链风险的相关内容；并通过总结义乌小商品采购外贸供应链的典型风险，阐述了技术信用风险、货运信用风险和结算信用风险的传递机制。
第四章：义乌小商品采购的风险评价方法研究。
本章针对风险评价过程中的初始指标集构建、指标约简、权重确定以及风险综合评价进行了系统的研究，并对其中所采用的模糊集理论、动态模糊聚类、粗糙集理论和模糊TOPSIS等各种评价方法进行了详细的阐述，同时针对在义乌小商品外贸供应链上的核心企业——拥有进出口权的采购商或是国际货代企业进行了实证研究。
第五章：义乌小商品采购风险预警方法研究。
本章首先采用文献综述的方式回顾了风险预警的相关理论知识及各种研究方法，然后通过重点阐述WEB全文数据挖掘的相关理论知识以及关联规则、BP神经网络和支持向量机等数据挖掘方法，采用第四章研究中得到的风险评价指标体系，针对义乌小商品采购供应链上外贸采购商、国际货代企业这两种典型核心企业，建立了风险预警原型系统，并于2013年3月5日通过了义乌市科技局组织的浙江省专家组的项目验收。
第六章：结论和展望。
本章对整个研究过程进行了总结，归纳出本文的主要成果和创新点，在此基础上指出了研究存在的不足与局限性，并对下一步研究工作提出了设想和展望。
At the same time which continued to maintain and strengthen the international competitiveness of the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, in view of the uneven feature of these data of SCBs and IFFEs on the market often contain a large number of vague, incomplete and uncertain information, this study builts credit evaluation index system and establish a credit warning prototype system for Yiwu Small Commodity Buyers and third party logistics (International Freight Forwarding Enterprise representative). It provides a reference standard for the majority of the SMEs in the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, which evaluates and selects trading partners science, reasonable and timely, improves the ability to respond to the credit risk greatly, reduces the huge economic losses resulting, and promotes the Yiwu Small Commodity Market developed healthy, sustainable and prosperity.
Specific studies include:
Chapter1:Introduction
Firstly, this chapter analysis of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade background, roughly summarized and summaried from the three aspects of the construction of evaluation index system, the choice of evaluation method, as well as the establishment of the risk early warning system for domestic and foreign research results.Then it briefly introducts the study objectives, methods, content and ideas of this paper.
Chapter2:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Characteristics
First of all,this chapter summarizes the development process and its phase characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market; Then, it analysis of the genetic mechanism of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market through highlights the significant competitive advantage by describing the status of Yiwu enterprises cluster, and discriminats the origin of the Small Commodity Market by reviewing the unique business and cultural background in Yiwu; Finally, this chapter shows the strong position of export, and also expresses great worry for credit risk by summing up the present situation and characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement.
Chapter3:The Credit Risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement
This chapter fisrtly introduces the relevant knowledge of supply chain risk, supply chain risk transfer with a literature review, then narratives the related content of the foreign trade supply chain and small and medium-sized foreign trade supply chain risks. Secondly it elaborates the transfer mechanism of technical credit risk, freight credit risk and settlement credit risk by summing typical risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade supply chain.
Chapter4:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Evaluation Method
This chapter does a systematic study for building the initial set of indicators, indicators reduction, weight determination and comprehensive evaluation of the risk in the risk assessment process. And elaborates in detail for a variety of evaluation methods which likes fuzzy set theory, dynamic fuzzy clustering, rough set theory and fuzzy TOPSIS and so on. At the same time, it does an empirical study for the Yiwu Commodity trade supply chain core enterprise:SCBs or IFFEs who has the right to import and export.
Chapter5:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Early-warning Method
This chapter begins with a literature review of the risk early-warning theoretical knowledge and a variety of research methods, and then focuses on the relevant theoretical knowledge of the Web full-text data mining and data mining method of association rules, BP neural network and support vector machine.It establishes of the risk early-warning prototype system for both typical core enterprise which likes foreign trade SCBs and IFFEs in Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement supply chain by using the risk assessment system of Chapter4.This system was accepted of the Zhejiang Province Expert Group organizating by Yiwu City Science and Technology Bureau on March5,2013.
Chapter6:Conclusion and Outlook
This chapter summarizes the entire course of the study, summes up the main results and innovation of this paper, points out the shortcomings and limitations of this research, and puts forward the visions and perspectives of the next step to study the work.
具体研究内容包括：
第一章：绪论。
本章在分析义乌小商品外贸的研究背景之后，从评价指标体系的构建、评价方法的选择，以及风险预警系统的建立等三个方面对国内外研究成果进行了大致的归纳与总结，然后简明扼要地介绍了论文的研究意义、研究目的、研究方法、研究内容和研究思路。
第二章：义乌小商品采购特征。
首先，本章总结了义乌小商品采购市场的发展历程及其阶段特征；接着，通过描述义乌企业集群的现状凸显出明显的竞争力优势，同时，也通过回顾义乌独特的商业文化背景辨析其与小市场的渊源，从而剖析义乌小商品采购市场的成因机制；最后，通过总结义乌小商品采购的现状及其特征，一方面展现其外贸出口的强势地位，另一方面也表达出信用风险的巨大隐忧。
第三章：义乌小商品采购的信用风险。
本章首先采用文献综述的方式，介绍了供应链风险、供应链风险传递的相关知识，同时叙述了外贸供应链以及中小外贸供应链风险的相关内容；并通过总结义乌小商品采购外贸供应链的典型风险，阐述了技术信用风险、货运信用风险和结算信用风险的传递机制。
第四章：义乌小商品采购的风险评价方法研究。
本章针对风险评价过程中的初始指标集构建、指标约简、权重确定以及风险综合评价进行了系统的研究，并对其中所采用的模糊集理论、动态模糊聚类、粗糙集理论和模糊TOPSIS等各种评价方法进行了详细的阐述，同时针对在义乌小商品外贸供应链上的核心企业——拥有进出口权的采购商或是国际货代企业进行了实证研究。
第五章：义乌小商品采购风险预警方法研究。
本章首先采用文献综述的方式回顾了风险预警的相关理论知识及各种研究方法，然后通过重点阐述WEB全文数据挖掘的相关理论知识以及关联规则、BP神经网络和支持向量机等数据挖掘方法，采用第四章研究中得到的风险评价指标体系，针对义乌小商品采购供应链上外贸采购商、国际货代企业这两种典型核心企业，建立了风险预警原型系统，并于2013年3月5日通过了义乌市科技局组织的浙江省专家组的项目验收。
第六章：结论和展望。
本章对整个研究过程进行了总结，归纳出本文的主要成果和创新点，在此基础上指出了研究存在的不足与局限性，并对下一步研究工作提出了设想和展望。
At the same time which continued to maintain and strengthen the international competitiveness of the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, in view of the uneven feature of these data of SCBs and IFFEs on the market often contain a large number of vague, incomplete and uncertain information, this study builts credit evaluation index system and establish a credit warning prototype system for Yiwu Small Commodity Buyers and third party logistics (International Freight Forwarding Enterprise representative). It provides a reference standard for the majority of the SMEs in the Yiwu Small Commodity Market, which evaluates and selects trading partners science, reasonable and timely, improves the ability to respond to the credit risk greatly, reduces the huge economic losses resulting, and promotes the Yiwu Small Commodity Market developed healthy, sustainable and prosperity.
Specific studies include:
Chapter1:Introduction
Firstly, this chapter analysis of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade background, roughly summarized and summaried from the three aspects of the construction of evaluation index system, the choice of evaluation method, as well as the establishment of the risk early warning system for domestic and foreign research results.Then it briefly introducts the study objectives, methods, content and ideas of this paper.
Chapter2:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Characteristics
First of all,this chapter summarizes the development process and its phase characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market; Then, it analysis of the genetic mechanism of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Market through highlights the significant competitive advantage by describing the status of Yiwu enterprises cluster, and discriminats the origin of the Small Commodity Market by reviewing the unique business and cultural background in Yiwu; Finally, this chapter shows the strong position of export, and also expresses great worry for credit risk by summing up the present situation and characteristics of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement.
Chapter3:The Credit Risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement
This chapter fisrtly introduces the relevant knowledge of supply chain risk, supply chain risk transfer with a literature review, then narratives the related content of the foreign trade supply chain and small and medium-sized foreign trade supply chain risks. Secondly it elaborates the transfer mechanism of technical credit risk, freight credit risk and settlement credit risk by summing typical risk of the Yiwu Small Commodity foreign trade supply chain.
Chapter4:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Evaluation Method
This chapter does a systematic study for building the initial set of indicators, indicators reduction, weight determination and comprehensive evaluation of the risk in the risk assessment process. And elaborates in detail for a variety of evaluation methods which likes fuzzy set theory, dynamic fuzzy clustering, rough set theory and fuzzy TOPSIS and so on. At the same time, it does an empirical study for the Yiwu Commodity trade supply chain core enterprise:SCBs or IFFEs who has the right to import and export.
Chapter5:Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement Risk Early-warning Method
This chapter begins with a literature review of the risk early-warning theoretical knowledge and a variety of research methods, and then focuses on the relevant theoretical knowledge of the Web full-text data mining and data mining method of association rules, BP neural network and support vector machine.It establishes of the risk early-warning prototype system for both typical core enterprise which likes foreign trade SCBs and IFFEs in Yiwu Small Commodity Procurement supply chain by using the risk assessment system of Chapter4.This system was accepted of the Zhejiang Province Expert Group organizating by Yiwu City Science and Technology Bureau on March5,2013.
Chapter6:Conclusion and Outlook
This chapter summarizes the entire course of the study, summes up the main results and innovation of this paper, points out the shortcomings and limitations of this research, and puts forward the visions and perspectives of the next step to study the work.
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