航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理及预警机制研究
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摘要
由于生活水平的提高和生活节奏的加快,民航因其舒适快捷的特点已经成为民众出行的主要交通方式。民航快速发展的同时,由于航空公司运力不足以及天气、空中交通管制、空管安全等原因使得航班延误时常发生。航班延误不仅会影响旅客的出行,影响航空公司的服务质量和品牌形象,甚至由于相关信息的不透明,容易造成旅客群体性突发事件,给航空安全带来负面影响。本论文综合运用突变理论、演化博弈理论、社会网络分析、系统论等相关学科的理论和方法,将多学科学术前沿的内容有机地交叉融合,对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了研究,并构建了非线性的航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警机制。本文主要研究了以下内容：
第一部分首先阐述了造成航班延误的原因,包括有航空公司自身、天气、空中交通管制、旅客等原因；其次论述了航班延误引发的旅客突发事件的内涵和特征,在此基础上结合前人的研究成果,从“人—机—环—管”四个方面分别研究航班延误引发的旅客群体性突发事件的致因因素。
第二部分基于突变论理论对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。运用突变模型来预防控制旅客突发事件的发生,需要通过控制外部环境因素H和内部环境因素M的变化,使其落在稳定区域以内,防止系统的状态越过潜在突变区而发生突发事件。
第三部分基于演化博弈理论对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。对航空公司与旅客之间演化博弈过程进行了分析,在现行民航市场补偿机制下,经过多次博弈,旅客个体决策会受到群体博弈策略的影响；在分析双方演化博弈的策略均衡基础上,从社会效益最大化出发,提出航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警策略；在分析旅客群体性突发事件演化博弈的基础上,提出了旅客群体性突发事件扩散模型。
第四部分基于社会网络分析方法(SNA)对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。从网络密度、距离、中心性、凝聚子群等角度研究航班延误情境下旅客群体的结构特征、关系和知识共享交流情况,并辅助运用内容分析法研究互动深度。提出了基于社会网络分析方法(SNA)在旅客突发事件网络群体传播中的策略,包括构建多中心并行式网络结构、关注网络的弱联系结构和增强核心网络效应。
第五部分在旅客群体性突发事件致因机理的基础上,构建了非线性的航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警机制,并提出旅客群体性突发事件的应急预案策略,包括以情感策略舒缓旅客的负面情绪,建立航空公司、机场和空管等部门的应急预案联动机制,改进航班延误补偿标准的行政法规,创新航空公司和机场应对旅客突发事件的学习机制；建立基于人工神经网络的航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警模型。
Because of the increase of people's livelihood and the acceleration of living rhythm civil aviation has become one of the main transportation methods owing to its comfort ability and fast speed. While civil aviation is in its fast development phase, flight delay often occurs due to the lack of transportation capacity of airline companies and other reasons such as weather, traffic control in the air, air safety and so on. Flight delay causes mismatch of transport service resources, and affect travel plans of passengers, service quality of air transport and enterprise image of air transport. Because of flight delay information lack of transparency and sharing, no emergency disposal and timely guidance scheme which lead to passenger group incident and bring negative effects to aviation safety. This dissertation integrated using the catastrophe theory, evolutionary game, social network analysis, systems theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together. The paper research content mainly includes following several aspects:
The first part expounds the causes of flight delays firstly, including airlines, weather, air traffic control, passengers and other reasons; Secondly describes the connotation and characteristics of the passenger emergency caused by flight delays and then, based on the previous research, we discusses the causation factor of the passenger mass incidents caused by flight delays from the four aspects:"People-Air Environment-Management" respectively;
The second part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on catastrophe theory. The analysis concludes the external environment and internal environment for the development. Mutation model is studied for the prevention and control of passengers'emergency mass incidents. By controlling the changes in the external environmental factors H and internal environment factors M, so that it falls on the stable region in order to prevent the system state over the potential mutation region event of an emergency.
The third part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on evolutionary game theory. The evolutionary game process between airlines and passengers is analyzed. The decisions of individual passengers will be affected by the group game strategies in the process of multiple games under the existing civil aviation market compensation mechanism. The countermeasures of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context of flight delays are proposed from the view of maximizing social benefits based on the strategic balance of evolutionary game. The diffusion model of passengers' emergency mass incidents is built based on the analysis of evolutionary game of emergency mass incidents.
The fourth part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on social network analysis (SNA). The structural characteristics of the network groups, relationships and the exchange of knowledge sharing are analyzed in the perspectives o f network density, distance, centrality and cohesive subgroup. The depth of interaction is analyzed with content analysis method as an auxiliary. The network spreading strategies of passengers' emergency mass incidents are proposed based on SNA, including the building of multi-center parallel network structure, the weak links of the network structure and the enhancement of the core network effect.
The fifth part, the internal and external alert sources which would cause passenger emergency mass incidents, and the relationship between them are researched based on the causation mechanism of passenger emergency mass incidents. On the basis of the theory of group psychology, this dissertation analyzed the formation mechanism of passenger emergency incidents, and built the early warning system of passenger emergency mass incidents in the case of non-linear flight delay, and proposed emergency plan for dealing with the passenger emergency mass incidents, including relieving the negative emotions of passengers by affective strategies, establishing the emergency warning linkage mechanism between airlines, civil airports and air traffic control departments, improving the administrative regulations of flight delays compensation standards and innovating the learning mechanism to cope with passenger emergency incidents in airline and airport.
第一部分首先阐述了造成航班延误的原因,包括有航空公司自身、天气、空中交通管制、旅客等原因；其次论述了航班延误引发的旅客突发事件的内涵和特征,在此基础上结合前人的研究成果,从“人—机—环—管”四个方面分别研究航班延误引发的旅客群体性突发事件的致因因素。
第二部分基于突变论理论对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。运用突变模型来预防控制旅客突发事件的发生,需要通过控制外部环境因素H和内部环境因素M的变化,使其落在稳定区域以内,防止系统的状态越过潜在突变区而发生突发事件。
第三部分基于演化博弈理论对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。对航空公司与旅客之间演化博弈过程进行了分析,在现行民航市场补偿机制下,经过多次博弈,旅客个体决策会受到群体博弈策略的影响；在分析双方演化博弈的策略均衡基础上,从社会效益最大化出发,提出航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警策略；在分析旅客群体性突发事件演化博弈的基础上,提出了旅客群体性突发事件扩散模型。
第四部分基于社会网络分析方法(SNA)对航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件致因机理进行了分析。从网络密度、距离、中心性、凝聚子群等角度研究航班延误情境下旅客群体的结构特征、关系和知识共享交流情况,并辅助运用内容分析法研究互动深度。提出了基于社会网络分析方法(SNA)在旅客突发事件网络群体传播中的策略,包括构建多中心并行式网络结构、关注网络的弱联系结构和增强核心网络效应。
第五部分在旅客群体性突发事件致因机理的基础上,构建了非线性的航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警机制,并提出旅客群体性突发事件的应急预案策略,包括以情感策略舒缓旅客的负面情绪,建立航空公司、机场和空管等部门的应急预案联动机制,改进航班延误补偿标准的行政法规,创新航空公司和机场应对旅客突发事件的学习机制；建立基于人工神经网络的航班延误情境下旅客群体性突发事件预警模型。
Because of the increase of people's livelihood and the acceleration of living rhythm civil aviation has become one of the main transportation methods owing to its comfort ability and fast speed. While civil aviation is in its fast development phase, flight delay often occurs due to the lack of transportation capacity of airline companies and other reasons such as weather, traffic control in the air, air safety and so on. Flight delay causes mismatch of transport service resources, and affect travel plans of passengers, service quality of air transport and enterprise image of air transport. Because of flight delay information lack of transparency and sharing, no emergency disposal and timely guidance scheme which lead to passenger group incident and bring negative effects to aviation safety. This dissertation integrated using the catastrophe theory, evolutionary game, social network analysis, systems theory and other related disciplines theory and method, through the multidisciplinary academic frontier content cross together. The paper research content mainly includes following several aspects:
The first part expounds the causes of flight delays firstly, including airlines, weather, air traffic control, passengers and other reasons; Secondly describes the connotation and characteristics of the passenger emergency caused by flight delays and then, based on the previous research, we discusses the causation factor of the passenger mass incidents caused by flight delays from the four aspects:"People-Air Environment-Management" respectively;
The second part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on catastrophe theory. The analysis concludes the external environment and internal environment for the development. Mutation model is studied for the prevention and control of passengers'emergency mass incidents. By controlling the changes in the external environmental factors H and internal environment factors M, so that it falls on the stable region in order to prevent the system state over the potential mutation region event of an emergency.
The third part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on evolutionary game theory. The evolutionary game process between airlines and passengers is analyzed. The decisions of individual passengers will be affected by the group game strategies in the process of multiple games under the existing civil aviation market compensation mechanism. The countermeasures of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context of flight delays are proposed from the view of maximizing social benefits based on the strategic balance of evolutionary game. The diffusion model of passengers' emergency mass incidents is built based on the analysis of evolutionary game of emergency mass incidents.
The fourth part analyzes causation mechanism of passengers'emergency mass incidents in the context o f flight delays based on social network analysis (SNA). The structural characteristics of the network groups, relationships and the exchange of knowledge sharing are analyzed in the perspectives o f network density, distance, centrality and cohesive subgroup. The depth of interaction is analyzed with content analysis method as an auxiliary. The network spreading strategies of passengers' emergency mass incidents are proposed based on SNA, including the building of multi-center parallel network structure, the weak links of the network structure and the enhancement of the core network effect.
The fifth part, the internal and external alert sources which would cause passenger emergency mass incidents, and the relationship between them are researched based on the causation mechanism of passenger emergency mass incidents. On the basis of the theory of group psychology, this dissertation analyzed the formation mechanism of passenger emergency incidents, and built the early warning system of passenger emergency mass incidents in the case of non-linear flight delay, and proposed emergency plan for dealing with the passenger emergency mass incidents, including relieving the negative emotions of passengers by affective strategies, establishing the emergency warning linkage mechanism between airlines, civil airports and air traffic control departments, improving the administrative regulations of flight delays compensation standards and innovating the learning mechanism to cope with passenger emergency incidents in airline and airport.
引文
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