教师的情绪预测准确性及其影响因素
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摘要
情绪预测是情绪智力的重要成分，这是二十余年来社会心理学、情绪心理学、消费心理学、管理心理学、健康心理学、运动心理学等多个心理学领域的研究热点。预测学生情绪是教师常见的职业行为，准确预测学生情绪对教师优化教育决策、实施有效教育、减少师生共情鸿沟、促进师生关系和谐具有重要意义，这不仅是教师职业前瞻性特点的充分彰显，更是包括情绪智力在内的教师专业能力的重要体现。然而，教师预测学生情绪的准确性究竟如何，呈现出怎样的特点？预测准确性受到哪些因素影响？如何才能提升教师预测学生情绪的准确性？诸如此类的问题，在理论研究上竟一片空白，迄今我们仍一无所知。鉴此，本研究在以往情绪预测研究的基础上，结合教育活动实践，选择典型教育活动情境，聚焦情绪预测能力的集中体现——准确性这一核心问题，综合运用文献研究法、访谈调查法、问卷调查法、现场实验法、实验室实验法等多种方法，从理论尤其是实证两个方面，比较全面、系统地完成了对教师情绪预测准确性及其影响因素的研究。研究不仅具有开拓情绪预测研究新领域、拓展教师情绪智力研究、丰富情感教育心理学理论等方面的理论价值，而且在为促进师生情感交融提供有效策略、为促进教师专业化发展提供有益启示等方面，具有重要的现实意义。论文主要从以下三个方面开展具体的实证研究：
第一部分围绕教师情绪预测准确性特点开展调查研究。具体包括两类情境调查：在开放式问卷调查、教师访谈和教师座谈的基础上，编制《教师情绪预测情境调查问卷》，并实施调查，考察教师预测群体学生情绪的准确性；选择典型教育情境依次进行小样本的三个情境调查，考察教师预测个体学生情绪的准确性。
第二部分围绕教师情绪预测准确性影响因素开展实验研究。具体包括三组实验八个具体实验，依次考察注意聚焦、样例锚点和共情锚点对教师情绪预测准确性的影响。三组实验在揭示影响因素的同时，从正反两个方面说明了预测偏差为何会产生、预测准确性何以能提升的问题。
第三部分围绕教师情绪预测认知策略开展调查研究。根据第二部分实验结果，编制《教师情绪预测认知策略问卷》，并实施调查，揭示教师情绪预测认知策略水平特点及策略类型，为有针对性开展教师情绪预测准确性的提升干预提供实证依据。
通过上述研究，本文获得如下主要结论：
1.跨情境、跨样本、采取不同情绪测量方法得到的结果一致表明，无论预测对象是群体学生还是个体学生，教师情绪预测准确性水平总体较差，出现了明显的预测偏差。从预测的高低估情况看，教师在预测群体学生情绪时，一致表现为显著高估，而在预测个体学生情绪时，并未出现明显的高低估趋势。
2.教师情绪预测准确性不受性别、学科、班主任身份和教龄等因素的影响。初步发现教师在预测学生不同情绪方面存在差异，表现为教师可能更有能力预测学生消极情绪，而在预测学生未来的积极情绪方面显得乏力。
3.教师情绪预测存在注意聚焦效应，表现为教师越是注意到事件的性质、程度等信息，做出的预测相对越准确。但注意信息完整详尽程度对教师情绪预测准确性没有影响，教师知觉到典型情境的关键信息即可做出预测。
4.教师情绪预测存在样例锚点效应，表现为教师在预测学生情绪时，会以记忆中学生的情绪样例作为参照，但样例锚点并不必然促进教师情绪预测准确性的提升，只有典型样例才是有效锚点。
5.教师情绪预测存在共情锚点效应，表现为教师在预测学生情绪过程中受到自我预测这一共情锚点的影响，但共情锚点并不必然促进教师情绪预测准确性。唯有教师站在学生角度进行设身处地共情，才可能积极运用有效的共情锚点。
6.基于实验结果编制的《教师情绪预测认知策略问卷》具有良好的信效度，以此问卷为工具实施的调查表明，教师情绪预测认知策略总体水平呈积极态势，但仍有较大发展空间；潜在剖面分析结果表明，在情绪预测认知策略上，可将教师分为“策略滞后型”、“策略良好型”和“策略优化型”三种类型。
The emotional forecasting is an important component of emotional intelligence,which is a research focus of social psychology, emotional psychology, consumerpsychology, management psychology, health psychology and sports psychology inrecent2decades. Forecasting students emotions is a common occupational behaviorfor teachers. Accurately forecasting students emotions can optimize teachers’educational decision-making, implement effective education, reduce empathic gapsbetween teachers and students and promote harmonious relationship betweenteachers and students. This is not only fully demonstrated the characteristics ofteachers professional prospective, but an important manifestation of teachersprofessional competence of emotional intelligence. However, what kind of featureswhen refers to the accuracy of teachers’ forecasting? What kind of factors mayinfluence the forecasting accuracy? How can we enhance the accuracy of teachersforecasting students emotions? We still know nothing about the above problems.Therefore, based on past research of emotional forecasting, the study combines thepractice of educational activities, selects typical education activities scenarios andfocus on accuracy of forecasting emotions. A variety of methods such asdocumentary research, interviews, surveys, questionnaires, field experiments andlaboratory experiments were integrated to use. Especially from two theoretical andempirical aspects, we conduct the study on accuracy of teachers forecasting studentsemotions and related impacting factors comprehensively and systematically. Thestudy not only can extend new areas of the emotional forecasting, expand teachersemotional intelligence research, enrich emotional education psychological theory,but can provide an effective strategy for the promotion blend of teachers andstudents emotions and provide useful insights to promote the teachers’ professionaldevelopment.The research mainly was carried out from the following three aspects:
Firstly, we conduct research according to characteristics of teachers emotionalforecasting accuracy including two types of situations investigation. On the basis ofthe open-ended questionnaires, interviews with teachers, and teachers seminars, the questionnaire on teachers emotional forecasting scenarios were worked out and thesurvey was implemented to examine the accuracy of teachers’ forecasting groupstudents emotions. We selected the typical educational context and in turnsimplement three scenarios of the small sample survey to examine the accuracy ofteachers’ forecasting individual students emotions.
Secondly, we carried out experimental research according to influencing factorsof forecasting accuracy including eight specific experiments from the three sets ofexperiments.We sequentially examined attention focusing; example anchoring andempathic anchoring influences on teachers’ emotional forecasting accuracy. Thethree sets of experiments not only reveal the influencing factors, but explain why theforecasting bias generated and how to improve forecasting accuracy from bothpositive and negative aspects.
Thirdly, we carried out the research according to teachers emotional forecastingcognitive strategies.According to the results of the second part of the experiments,we conducted teachers emotional forecasting cognitive strategies questionnaire andimplemented the survey to reveal the cognitive strategies characteristics of teachersemotional forecasting level and the type of strategies to provides empirical evidencesfor carrying out intervention of enhancing teachers emotional forecasting accuracy.
Through above studies, we obtained the following conclusions:
1.From different situations, different samples, and different emotionalmeasurement methods we obtained consistent results: No matter forecasting groupstudents or individual student, the results show that teachers emotional forecastingaccuracy overall is poor and there is a clear forecasting bias. From the forecastingestimating, teachers show consistent significantly overestimated when forecastinggroup students emotions. While forecasting individual student emotions, teachers donot show a significant trend of high estimate or underestimate.
2. Teachers’ emotional forecasting accuracy is not affected by gender, disciplineand teaching experience. Differences exist when teachers forecast students’ differentemotions. We find teachers can be able to forecast students negative emotions andseem weak in forecasting students future positive emotions.
3. We discover attention focusing effect in teachers emotional forecasting,which means that teachers pay more attention to the character, extent of the eventsand they can make relatively more accurate forecasts. But whether the information isfull can not influence the accuracy of teachers emotional forecasting. Teachers canmake forecasting when they perceive to the critical information of typical situations.
4. We find example anchoring effect in teachers emotional forecasting and theresults show that teachers will refer to students’ emotional sample of memory whenthey forecast student emotions. But the example anchoring does not necessarilypromote forecasting accuracy. Only typical samples are effective anchors.
5. We also find empathic anchoring effect in teachers emotional forecastingwhich means that teachers are influenced by self-forecasting when they are in theprocess of forecasting students emotions. But empathic anchor does not necessarilypromote teachers emotional forecasting accuracy. Only when teachers putthemselves in the perspective of students, they may actively take advantage ofempathy anchors.
6. Teachers emotional forecasting cognitive strategies questionnaire which isconducted on the basis of the experimental results has good reliability and validity.According to the investigation result from questionnaire, we find teachers overalllevel of emotional forecasting cognitive strategies show a positive trend, but there isstill a large development space. The results from Latent Profile Analysis（LPA）showwhen it refer to emotional forecasting cognitive strategies, teachers can be dividedinto three types including " strategy lag","good strategy" and "strategy optimized".
第一部分围绕教师情绪预测准确性特点开展调查研究。具体包括两类情境调查：在开放式问卷调查、教师访谈和教师座谈的基础上，编制《教师情绪预测情境调查问卷》，并实施调查，考察教师预测群体学生情绪的准确性；选择典型教育情境依次进行小样本的三个情境调查，考察教师预测个体学生情绪的准确性。
第二部分围绕教师情绪预测准确性影响因素开展实验研究。具体包括三组实验八个具体实验，依次考察注意聚焦、样例锚点和共情锚点对教师情绪预测准确性的影响。三组实验在揭示影响因素的同时，从正反两个方面说明了预测偏差为何会产生、预测准确性何以能提升的问题。
第三部分围绕教师情绪预测认知策略开展调查研究。根据第二部分实验结果，编制《教师情绪预测认知策略问卷》，并实施调查，揭示教师情绪预测认知策略水平特点及策略类型，为有针对性开展教师情绪预测准确性的提升干预提供实证依据。
通过上述研究，本文获得如下主要结论：
1.跨情境、跨样本、采取不同情绪测量方法得到的结果一致表明，无论预测对象是群体学生还是个体学生，教师情绪预测准确性水平总体较差，出现了明显的预测偏差。从预测的高低估情况看，教师在预测群体学生情绪时，一致表现为显著高估，而在预测个体学生情绪时，并未出现明显的高低估趋势。
2.教师情绪预测准确性不受性别、学科、班主任身份和教龄等因素的影响。初步发现教师在预测学生不同情绪方面存在差异，表现为教师可能更有能力预测学生消极情绪，而在预测学生未来的积极情绪方面显得乏力。
3.教师情绪预测存在注意聚焦效应，表现为教师越是注意到事件的性质、程度等信息，做出的预测相对越准确。但注意信息完整详尽程度对教师情绪预测准确性没有影响，教师知觉到典型情境的关键信息即可做出预测。
4.教师情绪预测存在样例锚点效应，表现为教师在预测学生情绪时，会以记忆中学生的情绪样例作为参照，但样例锚点并不必然促进教师情绪预测准确性的提升，只有典型样例才是有效锚点。
5.教师情绪预测存在共情锚点效应，表现为教师在预测学生情绪过程中受到自我预测这一共情锚点的影响，但共情锚点并不必然促进教师情绪预测准确性。唯有教师站在学生角度进行设身处地共情，才可能积极运用有效的共情锚点。
6.基于实验结果编制的《教师情绪预测认知策略问卷》具有良好的信效度，以此问卷为工具实施的调查表明，教师情绪预测认知策略总体水平呈积极态势，但仍有较大发展空间；潜在剖面分析结果表明，在情绪预测认知策略上，可将教师分为“策略滞后型”、“策略良好型”和“策略优化型”三种类型。
The emotional forecasting is an important component of emotional intelligence,which is a research focus of social psychology, emotional psychology, consumerpsychology, management psychology, health psychology and sports psychology inrecent2decades. Forecasting students emotions is a common occupational behaviorfor teachers. Accurately forecasting students emotions can optimize teachers’educational decision-making, implement effective education, reduce empathic gapsbetween teachers and students and promote harmonious relationship betweenteachers and students. This is not only fully demonstrated the characteristics ofteachers professional prospective, but an important manifestation of teachersprofessional competence of emotional intelligence. However, what kind of featureswhen refers to the accuracy of teachers’ forecasting? What kind of factors mayinfluence the forecasting accuracy? How can we enhance the accuracy of teachersforecasting students emotions? We still know nothing about the above problems.Therefore, based on past research of emotional forecasting, the study combines thepractice of educational activities, selects typical education activities scenarios andfocus on accuracy of forecasting emotions. A variety of methods such asdocumentary research, interviews, surveys, questionnaires, field experiments andlaboratory experiments were integrated to use. Especially from two theoretical andempirical aspects, we conduct the study on accuracy of teachers forecasting studentsemotions and related impacting factors comprehensively and systematically. Thestudy not only can extend new areas of the emotional forecasting, expand teachersemotional intelligence research, enrich emotional education psychological theory,but can provide an effective strategy for the promotion blend of teachers andstudents emotions and provide useful insights to promote the teachers’ professionaldevelopment.The research mainly was carried out from the following three aspects:
Firstly, we conduct research according to characteristics of teachers emotionalforecasting accuracy including two types of situations investigation. On the basis ofthe open-ended questionnaires, interviews with teachers, and teachers seminars, the questionnaire on teachers emotional forecasting scenarios were worked out and thesurvey was implemented to examine the accuracy of teachers’ forecasting groupstudents emotions. We selected the typical educational context and in turnsimplement three scenarios of the small sample survey to examine the accuracy ofteachers’ forecasting individual students emotions.
Secondly, we carried out experimental research according to influencing factorsof forecasting accuracy including eight specific experiments from the three sets ofexperiments.We sequentially examined attention focusing; example anchoring andempathic anchoring influences on teachers’ emotional forecasting accuracy. Thethree sets of experiments not only reveal the influencing factors, but explain why theforecasting bias generated and how to improve forecasting accuracy from bothpositive and negative aspects.
Thirdly, we carried out the research according to teachers emotional forecastingcognitive strategies.According to the results of the second part of the experiments,we conducted teachers emotional forecasting cognitive strategies questionnaire andimplemented the survey to reveal the cognitive strategies characteristics of teachersemotional forecasting level and the type of strategies to provides empirical evidencesfor carrying out intervention of enhancing teachers emotional forecasting accuracy.
Through above studies, we obtained the following conclusions:
1.From different situations, different samples, and different emotionalmeasurement methods we obtained consistent results: No matter forecasting groupstudents or individual student, the results show that teachers emotional forecastingaccuracy overall is poor and there is a clear forecasting bias. From the forecastingestimating, teachers show consistent significantly overestimated when forecastinggroup students emotions. While forecasting individual student emotions, teachers donot show a significant trend of high estimate or underestimate.
2. Teachers’ emotional forecasting accuracy is not affected by gender, disciplineand teaching experience. Differences exist when teachers forecast students’ differentemotions. We find teachers can be able to forecast students negative emotions andseem weak in forecasting students future positive emotions.
3. We discover attention focusing effect in teachers emotional forecasting,which means that teachers pay more attention to the character, extent of the eventsand they can make relatively more accurate forecasts. But whether the information isfull can not influence the accuracy of teachers emotional forecasting. Teachers canmake forecasting when they perceive to the critical information of typical situations.
4. We find example anchoring effect in teachers emotional forecasting and theresults show that teachers will refer to students’ emotional sample of memory whenthey forecast student emotions. But the example anchoring does not necessarilypromote forecasting accuracy. Only typical samples are effective anchors.
5. We also find empathic anchoring effect in teachers emotional forecastingwhich means that teachers are influenced by self-forecasting when they are in theprocess of forecasting students emotions. But empathic anchor does not necessarilypromote teachers emotional forecasting accuracy. Only when teachers putthemselves in the perspective of students, they may actively take advantage ofempathy anchors.
6. Teachers emotional forecasting cognitive strategies questionnaire which isconducted on the basis of the experimental results has good reliability and validity.According to the investigation result from questionnaire, we find teachers overalllevel of emotional forecasting cognitive strategies show a positive trend, but there isstill a large development space. The results from Latent Profile Analysis（LPA）showwhen it refer to emotional forecasting cognitive strategies, teachers can be dividedinto three types including " strategy lag","good strategy" and "strategy optimized".
引文
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