青岛地区汛期突发性地质灾害现状、机理及预报预警
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摘要
随着经济的发展、人类活动的加剧，汛期降雨引发的山体崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等突发性地质灾害时有发生，直接威胁到人民生命和财产的安全，并成为阻碍经济社会可持续发展的重要因素。
汛期突发性地质灾害与降雨和地质环境条件同时相关。本次以青岛地区为研究区，在对已发地质灾害及隐患点1:5万大比例尺地质调查资料分析的基础上，结合历史灾害资料进行分析，掌握研究区地质灾害的时空分布规律，研究地质灾害与降雨等气象因素的相关关系和引发机制，建立地质灾害预报信息系统。
研究区存在的突发性地质灾害主要为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流。灾害主要分布在崂山、大泽山、小珠山、大珠山、铁镢山等山地丘陵区，在有采矿坑分布的准平原区也常有灾害发生。灾害发生的机理和诱因，既有自然因素条件，也有人为因素影响，汛期强降雨诱发地质灾害的作用更是十分显著。
根据降雨资料统计、预报模型的计算及地质灾害发生情况，得出地质灾害预报等级的降雨条件；地质灾害预报模型采用多因子综合评判模型。建立的汛期突发性地质灾害预报信息系统，由系统软件、系统硬件、数据库、监测系统、网络通讯系统构成；能够实现数据库管理和基于Internet的网络通讯，获得预报等级达到2级以上的相关村、镇，生成灾害预报图和预警告知函。系统数据库主要有信息数据库和空间数据库2类11种，包含大量可供查询的信息。
利用预报信息系统在研究区开展的灾害预报工作非常成功，预报了多起规模不等的地质灾害并提前设防。
With the intensification of economic development, human activity, the floodperiod caused by mountain collapse, landslides, mudslides, and other suddengeological disasters have a direct threat to the security of people's lives and property,and to hinder the economic and social sustainable development important factor.
There are both natural and human factors about the incentive of geologicalhazards in Qingdao area, the role of the heavy rainfall-induced geological hazards inflood season is especially significant.
With the rapid economic development in Qingdao area, human engineeringactivities become important factors of geological disasters, such as highwayconstruction, excavation embankment, slope cutting housing, mining of variousminerals and construction aggregate, the development of dangerous new attractions,all of these have increased the probability of occurrence of the disaster.
The geological hazard prediction and forewarning system about Qingdao area iscomposed by system software, hardware, database system, monitoring system andnetwork communication system. The system programming language is C++,development tool is Borland C++Builder and ADO database interface technology isused. It is to realize database management including information browsing, customquery, conditions query, SQL query, statistics, editing and output, and networkcommunications based on the Internet including real-time monitoring datatransmission and browsing, finally get the village of level2and above, generating disaster forecast chart and warning letter. The system database has informationdatabase and spatial database of2classes11types, containing a large number ofinquiries for information, such as fundamental geographic information, geologicaldisaster and hidden points distribution, rural information, widely preventive measuresinformation and the weather forecast results; the terrain slope, structure, looseoverburden, nature disaster and other types of geological environment factors data;dynamic elements of precipitation data of rainfall station, soil moisture data, thevariation level of groundwater and deformation monitoring, etc.
We make the prediction and forewarning system run by the comprehensivegeological, hidden points, disaster points, monitored values, rainfall and othermeteorological information, and other disasters influencing factors, by using computerto statistic, analyze, and submit the results to tripartite consultation of meteorological,geological and land; Finally, after the prediction value correction, we publishedgeological disaster the prediction and forewarning information. In the running threeyears, according to geological disasters and the actual rainfall, we constantly changeand improve the parameters and factors, publish information on disaster predictionseveral times every year, completed prevention many scales of geological disasters inadvance, to effectively avoid people and property losses.
汛期突发性地质灾害与降雨和地质环境条件同时相关。本次以青岛地区为研究区，在对已发地质灾害及隐患点1:5万大比例尺地质调查资料分析的基础上，结合历史灾害资料进行分析，掌握研究区地质灾害的时空分布规律，研究地质灾害与降雨等气象因素的相关关系和引发机制，建立地质灾害预报信息系统。
研究区存在的突发性地质灾害主要为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流。灾害主要分布在崂山、大泽山、小珠山、大珠山、铁镢山等山地丘陵区，在有采矿坑分布的准平原区也常有灾害发生。灾害发生的机理和诱因，既有自然因素条件，也有人为因素影响，汛期强降雨诱发地质灾害的作用更是十分显著。
根据降雨资料统计、预报模型的计算及地质灾害发生情况，得出地质灾害预报等级的降雨条件；地质灾害预报模型采用多因子综合评判模型。建立的汛期突发性地质灾害预报信息系统，由系统软件、系统硬件、数据库、监测系统、网络通讯系统构成；能够实现数据库管理和基于Internet的网络通讯，获得预报等级达到2级以上的相关村、镇，生成灾害预报图和预警告知函。系统数据库主要有信息数据库和空间数据库2类11种，包含大量可供查询的信息。
利用预报信息系统在研究区开展的灾害预报工作非常成功，预报了多起规模不等的地质灾害并提前设防。
With the intensification of economic development, human activity, the floodperiod caused by mountain collapse, landslides, mudslides, and other suddengeological disasters have a direct threat to the security of people's lives and property,and to hinder the economic and social sustainable development important factor.
There are both natural and human factors about the incentive of geologicalhazards in Qingdao area, the role of the heavy rainfall-induced geological hazards inflood season is especially significant.
With the rapid economic development in Qingdao area, human engineeringactivities become important factors of geological disasters, such as highwayconstruction, excavation embankment, slope cutting housing, mining of variousminerals and construction aggregate, the development of dangerous new attractions,all of these have increased the probability of occurrence of the disaster.
The geological hazard prediction and forewarning system about Qingdao area iscomposed by system software, hardware, database system, monitoring system andnetwork communication system. The system programming language is C++,development tool is Borland C++Builder and ADO database interface technology isused. It is to realize database management including information browsing, customquery, conditions query, SQL query, statistics, editing and output, and networkcommunications based on the Internet including real-time monitoring datatransmission and browsing, finally get the village of level2and above, generating disaster forecast chart and warning letter. The system database has informationdatabase and spatial database of2classes11types, containing a large number ofinquiries for information, such as fundamental geographic information, geologicaldisaster and hidden points distribution, rural information, widely preventive measuresinformation and the weather forecast results; the terrain slope, structure, looseoverburden, nature disaster and other types of geological environment factors data;dynamic elements of precipitation data of rainfall station, soil moisture data, thevariation level of groundwater and deformation monitoring, etc.
We make the prediction and forewarning system run by the comprehensivegeological, hidden points, disaster points, monitored values, rainfall and othermeteorological information, and other disasters influencing factors, by using computerto statistic, analyze, and submit the results to tripartite consultation of meteorological,geological and land; Finally, after the prediction value correction, we publishedgeological disaster the prediction and forewarning information. In the running threeyears, according to geological disasters and the actual rainfall, we constantly changeand improve the parameters and factors, publish information on disaster predictionseveral times every year, completed prevention many scales of geological disasters inadvance, to effectively avoid people and property losses.
引文
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