区域物流系统动力学模型构建与应用研究
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摘要
近年来,随着区域经济一体化和经济全球化的进程,人们越来越重视区域物流的发展。区域物流的发展已成为区域经济的重要经济增长点之一和支柱产业,其发展水平是评价区域现代化进程和经济综合实力的一个重要指标。我国区域物流的形成和发展开始于上世纪80年代,在20世纪后期,我国物流理论与实践迅速发展,在本世纪初,我国物流产业进入大规模发展阶段。由于经济发展水平的不平衡,各个地区的市场情况、企业素质及融资能力不同,区域物流发展的规模和水平差异较大,因此,制定一个符合本地特色的区域物流体系显得尤为重要。建立区域物流系统动力学模型,有利于政府和企业对现代区域物流系统进行优化,积极探索区域物流的发展规律,根据市场需求调整区域物流流通的各个环节,从而推到区域经济的发展。区域物流是区域经济发展的主导力量,是区域经济的一个重要组成要素,在区域经济发展的过程中具有引导功能和从属功能,因此,区域物流的发展已经成为社会关注的一个热点话题。
研究区域物流系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学因果关系分析,区域物流系统动力学模型的建立,有利于丰富和发展区域物流系统研究的理论体系,有利于深化区域物流系统的理论基础,有利于拓展区域物流系统的研究思路；研究区域物流与区域经济相关性的系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学因果关系分析,建立区域物流与区域经济系统动力学模型,有利于深化认识区域物流与区域经济之间的关系,有利于分析区域物流与区域经济的协调发展机理,加速优化和升级区域结构体系,推动区域经济健康、稳定与持续发展；研究区域物流系统评价、控制、仿真与决策,有利于政府对现在区域物流发展做出正确的规划与指导,有利于政府和企业正确认识区域物流与区域经济之间的关系,有利于政府以新的思路发展区域物流；建立高效的区域物流体系,有利于对资源进行合理配置和利用,推动区域经济健康、快速发展。
本文通过进行数据调研和文献分析,综合运用区域物流系统理论、区域经济学相关理论、系统动力学理论、物流需求预测理论、物流库存与运输相关理论、系统动力学仿真理论等多学科理论,应用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,分析区域物流系统中各指标要素间的因果关系,构建区域物流库存、运输、预测系统动力学模型和区域物流与区域经济相关性系统动力学模型。对大庆市区域物流发展现状进行实例分析,对模型中的重要因素进行仿真分析,最后提出促进大庆市区域物流发展的对策和建议,为政府相关部门制定区域物流系统发展规划提供理论基础。主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)区域物流系统动力学相关理论分析
详细阐述了区域物流、区域经济、区域物流与区域经济相关性及系统动力学的相关理论,简述了区域物流的系统动力学分析、系统动力学模型的构建原则及系统动力学模型。
(2)建立区域物流系统动力学模型
首先分别对区域物流库存系统、区域物流运输系统、区域物流需求预测系统的影响要素进行因果关系分析,其中区域物流库存系统分为制造商运作库存系统、零售商运作库存系统和供应链库存系统,区域物流运输系统分为运输供给子模块系统和运输需求子模块系统,建立因果关系分析图,从而建立区域物流系统动力学模型,最后列出模型参数方程并对其进行说明阐述。
(3)建立区域物流与区域经济相关性系统动力学模型
首先阐述了区域经济的相关理论和区域物流与区域经济的关系,在此基础上,对区域物流与区域经济相关性的影响要素进行因果关系分析,建立因果关系分析图,从而建立区域物流与区域经济相关性的系统动力学模型,最后列出模型参数方程并对其进行说明阐述。
(4)区域物流系统评价、控制、仿真与决策
主要阐述了区域物流系统评价、区域物流系统控制、区域物流系统仿真及区域物流系统决策的相关理论。区域物流系统评价是控制、监督和指挥整个区域物流系统的运作管理；区域物流系统控制是指在系统外部条件变化的情况下,保证区域物流系统实现目标的行为；区域物流系统仿真是一种利用计算机技术根据区域物流系统模型进行实验研究的方法。区域物流系统决策是在完成区域物流系统分析、区域物流建模和系统评价之后做出的相应决策,借助科学的理论与方法,根据区域物流系统客观现象,是在充分资料的基础上,从若干个区域物流系统方案中选择一个科学合理的方案。通过对区域物流系统的评价、控制、仿真与决策,为政府相关部门完善区域物流系统和制定区域物流发展规划提供建议,更好地促进区域物流的发展。
(5)大庆市区域物流系统动力学实例分析
首先综合阐述大庆市经济发展状况和物流发展状况,通过Vensim PLE系统动力学分析软件对大庆市区域物流系统进行仿真模拟,对仿真结果进行分析。针对大庆市区域物流与区域经济发展水平,主要提出了以下对策建议：完善大庆市建设区域物流的政策支持体系：建立权威性的协调机构,制定并完善相关的扶持政策,制定大庆市区域物流的总体规划,设立区域物流产业发展专项资金,加快服务型政府建设步伐；发挥政府在区域物流中心建设过程中的重要作用：建立促进区域物流发展的管理体制,加强对区域物流的行业管理,扶持大型物流企业发展；加强区域物流信息平台的建设；加快区域物流行业协会的建设：不断扩大物流行业的覆盖面,增强行业代表性,加强物流行业协会的自身建设,着力培育发展市场和企业需要的职能。
本文运用定性分析和定量分析相结合、系统动力学建模和实例分析相结合的研究方法,体现了理论和实践相结合的原则。研究成果对我国区域物流发展的理论探索具有重要意义,为解决实践问题提供了良好的理论基础和参考作用。
In recent years, with the integration processe of economic globalization and regional economic, people pay more and more attention to the development of regional logistics,the development level of regional logistics is an important symbol to evaluate modernization of regional and comprehensive strength, become the important industry and an important economic growth point of regional economy.In China, the development of reginal logistics began in the1980s,in the late20th century,the theory and practice of logistics developed rapidly, at the beginning of this century, logistics industry began to enter into the period of large-scale development. Duing to the imbalance of economic development level, the difference of market situation, quality and financing ability of enterprises in various areas,and the development scale and level of regional logistics are quite different,therefore, it is particularly important to develop a regional logistics system complied with local characteristics. The establishment of regional logistics system dynamics model, which is beneficial to optimize modern logistics system for the government and enterprise, and to explore actively the development law of regional logistics, according to the market demand adjust each circulation link of logistics, push the development of regional economic. Regional logistics is the important composition of regional economic, is one of the leading force in the development of the regional economic, regional logistics has double functions in regional economy, namely guiding function and subordinate function, the development of regional logistics has become a hot topic of social concern.
Study on system dynamics model of regional logistics, through the causal analysis of system dynamics, establish the system dynamics model of regional logistics,which contributes to enrich and develop theory system of regional logistics,expand the ideas of regional logistics system,deepen the theory basis of regional logistcs system. Study on system dynamics model of the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic, through the causal analysis of the regional logistics and regional economic, establish dynamic model of regional logistics and regional economic, which contributes to analyze the coordinated development mechanism of regional logistics,deepen the understanding of relationship between the regional logistics and regional economic, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of regional structure system, promoting the sustained, healthy and rapid development of regional economic.Study on evaluation, control, simulation and decision of regional logistics, which contributes to make right plan and guidance of regional logistics development for goverment, which is beneficial to understand correctly the relationship between regional logistics and regional economy for government and enterprise, and develop the regional logistics with new idea. Establishing an efficient regional logistics system, it is beneficial to reasonable allocation of resources and use, promoting the health and rapid development of regional economic.
In this paper, through the data investigation and literature analysis, comprehensivly used the system theory of regional logistics, related theory of regional economics, the theory of system dynamics, the forecast theory of logistics needs, the related theory of logistics inventory and transport,the theory of system dynamics simulation, and more subject theory, with the analysis method of qualitative and quantitative phase combination, analyzed the causal relationship of index elements in regional logistics, established the system dynamics model of regional logistics,and the system dynamics model of the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic, And made an instance analysis of development situation for regional logistics of Daqing City, finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of regional logistics, provided theoretical support for the relevant government departments to formulate development plans of regional logistics. The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) The analysis of system dynamics theory on regional logistics
Elaborated the theory of regional logistics, regional economic, relationship between regional logistics and regional economic and system dynamics, outlined the system dynamics analysis of regional logistics, the system dynamics model and the principle of regional logistics system dynamics.
(2) The establishment of regional logistics system dynamics model
Firstly analyzed respectively the causal relationship of effect elements in inventory system of regional logistics, transport system of regional logistics, needs forecast system of regional logistics.inventory system of regional logistics is divided into manufacturer operation inventory system, and retailers operation inventory system, transport system of regional logistics is divided into transport supply sub-module system and transport needs sub-module system, established the causality diagram, and system dynamics model,lastly list model parameter equation and on its description.
(3) The establishment of system dynamics model on relevance of regional logistics and regional economic
Firstly,elaborated the related theory of regional economic,and the relation of regional logistics and regional economic, on this basis,analyzed the influence elements of regional logistics and regional economy system which is correlated, identified the causal analysis chart, and established the system dynamics model of regional logistics and regional economic, lastly list model parameter equation and on its description.
(4) The evaluation, control, simulation and decision of regional logistics system
Mainly elaborated the related theory of the evaluation,control,simulation and decision of regional logistics system. The evaluation of regional logistics system is a supervision, control and command for the management process of the whole logistics regional. The control of logistics system ensures that regional logistics system realize the target's behavior when the external condition is changing. The simulation of system is a method of making experimental research that uses computer, which is based on system model.The decision of regional logistics makes corresponding decision after completing analysis, modeling, evaluation of the regional logistics, selects a reasonable and satisfactory solution from many solutions of regional logistics system with scientific theory and method, on the basis of full information, according to the objective phenomenon of the regional logistics system.Through the evaluation control, simulation and decision of regional logistics system, provide recommendations for relevant government departments to improve the regional logistics system and formulate development plans of regional logistics,to better promote the development of regional logistics.
(5) The instance analysis of regional logistics system dynamic for Daqing City
Firstly, comprehensively elaborated the situation of economic development and logistics development of Daqing, through the Vensim PLE system dynamics analysis software, simulated the regional logistics system, and analyzed the simulation result.In view of the development level of regional logistics and regional economic of Daqing,mainly put forward the following countermeasures recommendations:improving the supporting system of the policy for the construction of regional logistics of Daqing,establishing authoritative institutions for coordination,formulating and improving the relevant supporting policies,making the general planning of regional logistics of Daqing,establishing special funds for regional logistics industry development, accelerating the pace of construction for service Government;playing the government's role in the process of constructing regional logistics center,setting up the management system to promote the development of logistics industry,strengthening the management of logistics industry,support the development of large logistics enterprise;Strengthening the construction of information platform in logistics industry,speeding up the construction of association in logistics industry,expanding the coverage of industry,strengthening representativeness of industry, strengthening the construction of industry association own team,exerting to develop the function market and enterprises need.
In this paper,used the research methods that combine the qualitative analysis with the quantitative analysis,combine the system dynamics modeling with example analysis,reflected the principle which combines the theory with the practice.The results of research has an important meaning to the theory of regional logistics development in China,provides a good theoretical basis and reference to solve practical problems.
研究区域物流系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学因果关系分析,区域物流系统动力学模型的建立,有利于丰富和发展区域物流系统研究的理论体系,有利于深化区域物流系统的理论基础,有利于拓展区域物流系统的研究思路；研究区域物流与区域经济相关性的系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学因果关系分析,建立区域物流与区域经济系统动力学模型,有利于深化认识区域物流与区域经济之间的关系,有利于分析区域物流与区域经济的协调发展机理,加速优化和升级区域结构体系,推动区域经济健康、稳定与持续发展；研究区域物流系统评价、控制、仿真与决策,有利于政府对现在区域物流发展做出正确的规划与指导,有利于政府和企业正确认识区域物流与区域经济之间的关系,有利于政府以新的思路发展区域物流；建立高效的区域物流体系,有利于对资源进行合理配置和利用,推动区域经济健康、快速发展。
本文通过进行数据调研和文献分析,综合运用区域物流系统理论、区域经济学相关理论、系统动力学理论、物流需求预测理论、物流库存与运输相关理论、系统动力学仿真理论等多学科理论,应用定性和定量相结合的分析方法,分析区域物流系统中各指标要素间的因果关系,构建区域物流库存、运输、预测系统动力学模型和区域物流与区域经济相关性系统动力学模型。对大庆市区域物流发展现状进行实例分析,对模型中的重要因素进行仿真分析,最后提出促进大庆市区域物流发展的对策和建议,为政府相关部门制定区域物流系统发展规划提供理论基础。主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)区域物流系统动力学相关理论分析
详细阐述了区域物流、区域经济、区域物流与区域经济相关性及系统动力学的相关理论,简述了区域物流的系统动力学分析、系统动力学模型的构建原则及系统动力学模型。
(2)建立区域物流系统动力学模型
首先分别对区域物流库存系统、区域物流运输系统、区域物流需求预测系统的影响要素进行因果关系分析,其中区域物流库存系统分为制造商运作库存系统、零售商运作库存系统和供应链库存系统,区域物流运输系统分为运输供给子模块系统和运输需求子模块系统,建立因果关系分析图,从而建立区域物流系统动力学模型,最后列出模型参数方程并对其进行说明阐述。
(3)建立区域物流与区域经济相关性系统动力学模型
首先阐述了区域经济的相关理论和区域物流与区域经济的关系,在此基础上,对区域物流与区域经济相关性的影响要素进行因果关系分析,建立因果关系分析图,从而建立区域物流与区域经济相关性的系统动力学模型,最后列出模型参数方程并对其进行说明阐述。
(4)区域物流系统评价、控制、仿真与决策
主要阐述了区域物流系统评价、区域物流系统控制、区域物流系统仿真及区域物流系统决策的相关理论。区域物流系统评价是控制、监督和指挥整个区域物流系统的运作管理；区域物流系统控制是指在系统外部条件变化的情况下,保证区域物流系统实现目标的行为；区域物流系统仿真是一种利用计算机技术根据区域物流系统模型进行实验研究的方法。区域物流系统决策是在完成区域物流系统分析、区域物流建模和系统评价之后做出的相应决策,借助科学的理论与方法,根据区域物流系统客观现象,是在充分资料的基础上,从若干个区域物流系统方案中选择一个科学合理的方案。通过对区域物流系统的评价、控制、仿真与决策,为政府相关部门完善区域物流系统和制定区域物流发展规划提供建议,更好地促进区域物流的发展。
(5)大庆市区域物流系统动力学实例分析
首先综合阐述大庆市经济发展状况和物流发展状况,通过Vensim PLE系统动力学分析软件对大庆市区域物流系统进行仿真模拟,对仿真结果进行分析。针对大庆市区域物流与区域经济发展水平,主要提出了以下对策建议：完善大庆市建设区域物流的政策支持体系：建立权威性的协调机构,制定并完善相关的扶持政策,制定大庆市区域物流的总体规划,设立区域物流产业发展专项资金,加快服务型政府建设步伐；发挥政府在区域物流中心建设过程中的重要作用：建立促进区域物流发展的管理体制,加强对区域物流的行业管理,扶持大型物流企业发展；加强区域物流信息平台的建设；加快区域物流行业协会的建设：不断扩大物流行业的覆盖面,增强行业代表性,加强物流行业协会的自身建设,着力培育发展市场和企业需要的职能。
本文运用定性分析和定量分析相结合、系统动力学建模和实例分析相结合的研究方法,体现了理论和实践相结合的原则。研究成果对我国区域物流发展的理论探索具有重要意义,为解决实践问题提供了良好的理论基础和参考作用。
In recent years, with the integration processe of economic globalization and regional economic, people pay more and more attention to the development of regional logistics,the development level of regional logistics is an important symbol to evaluate modernization of regional and comprehensive strength, become the important industry and an important economic growth point of regional economy.In China, the development of reginal logistics began in the1980s,in the late20th century,the theory and practice of logistics developed rapidly, at the beginning of this century, logistics industry began to enter into the period of large-scale development. Duing to the imbalance of economic development level, the difference of market situation, quality and financing ability of enterprises in various areas,and the development scale and level of regional logistics are quite different,therefore, it is particularly important to develop a regional logistics system complied with local characteristics. The establishment of regional logistics system dynamics model, which is beneficial to optimize modern logistics system for the government and enterprise, and to explore actively the development law of regional logistics, according to the market demand adjust each circulation link of logistics, push the development of regional economic. Regional logistics is the important composition of regional economic, is one of the leading force in the development of the regional economic, regional logistics has double functions in regional economy, namely guiding function and subordinate function, the development of regional logistics has become a hot topic of social concern.
Study on system dynamics model of regional logistics, through the causal analysis of system dynamics, establish the system dynamics model of regional logistics,which contributes to enrich and develop theory system of regional logistics,expand the ideas of regional logistics system,deepen the theory basis of regional logistcs system. Study on system dynamics model of the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic, through the causal analysis of the regional logistics and regional economic, establish dynamic model of regional logistics and regional economic, which contributes to analyze the coordinated development mechanism of regional logistics,deepen the understanding of relationship between the regional logistics and regional economic, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of regional structure system, promoting the sustained, healthy and rapid development of regional economic.Study on evaluation, control, simulation and decision of regional logistics, which contributes to make right plan and guidance of regional logistics development for goverment, which is beneficial to understand correctly the relationship between regional logistics and regional economy for government and enterprise, and develop the regional logistics with new idea. Establishing an efficient regional logistics system, it is beneficial to reasonable allocation of resources and use, promoting the health and rapid development of regional economic.
In this paper, through the data investigation and literature analysis, comprehensivly used the system theory of regional logistics, related theory of regional economics, the theory of system dynamics, the forecast theory of logistics needs, the related theory of logistics inventory and transport,the theory of system dynamics simulation, and more subject theory, with the analysis method of qualitative and quantitative phase combination, analyzed the causal relationship of index elements in regional logistics, established the system dynamics model of regional logistics,and the system dynamics model of the relationship between regional logistics and regional economic, And made an instance analysis of development situation for regional logistics of Daqing City, finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of regional logistics, provided theoretical support for the relevant government departments to formulate development plans of regional logistics. The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) The analysis of system dynamics theory on regional logistics
Elaborated the theory of regional logistics, regional economic, relationship between regional logistics and regional economic and system dynamics, outlined the system dynamics analysis of regional logistics, the system dynamics model and the principle of regional logistics system dynamics.
(2) The establishment of regional logistics system dynamics model
Firstly analyzed respectively the causal relationship of effect elements in inventory system of regional logistics, transport system of regional logistics, needs forecast system of regional logistics.inventory system of regional logistics is divided into manufacturer operation inventory system, and retailers operation inventory system, transport system of regional logistics is divided into transport supply sub-module system and transport needs sub-module system, established the causality diagram, and system dynamics model,lastly list model parameter equation and on its description.
(3) The establishment of system dynamics model on relevance of regional logistics and regional economic
Firstly,elaborated the related theory of regional economic,and the relation of regional logistics and regional economic, on this basis,analyzed the influence elements of regional logistics and regional economy system which is correlated, identified the causal analysis chart, and established the system dynamics model of regional logistics and regional economic, lastly list model parameter equation and on its description.
(4) The evaluation, control, simulation and decision of regional logistics system
Mainly elaborated the related theory of the evaluation,control,simulation and decision of regional logistics system. The evaluation of regional logistics system is a supervision, control and command for the management process of the whole logistics regional. The control of logistics system ensures that regional logistics system realize the target's behavior when the external condition is changing. The simulation of system is a method of making experimental research that uses computer, which is based on system model.The decision of regional logistics makes corresponding decision after completing analysis, modeling, evaluation of the regional logistics, selects a reasonable and satisfactory solution from many solutions of regional logistics system with scientific theory and method, on the basis of full information, according to the objective phenomenon of the regional logistics system.Through the evaluation control, simulation and decision of regional logistics system, provide recommendations for relevant government departments to improve the regional logistics system and formulate development plans of regional logistics,to better promote the development of regional logistics.
(5) The instance analysis of regional logistics system dynamic for Daqing City
Firstly, comprehensively elaborated the situation of economic development and logistics development of Daqing, through the Vensim PLE system dynamics analysis software, simulated the regional logistics system, and analyzed the simulation result.In view of the development level of regional logistics and regional economic of Daqing,mainly put forward the following countermeasures recommendations:improving the supporting system of the policy for the construction of regional logistics of Daqing,establishing authoritative institutions for coordination,formulating and improving the relevant supporting policies,making the general planning of regional logistics of Daqing,establishing special funds for regional logistics industry development, accelerating the pace of construction for service Government;playing the government's role in the process of constructing regional logistics center,setting up the management system to promote the development of logistics industry,strengthening the management of logistics industry,support the development of large logistics enterprise;Strengthening the construction of information platform in logistics industry,speeding up the construction of association in logistics industry,expanding the coverage of industry,strengthening representativeness of industry, strengthening the construction of industry association own team,exerting to develop the function market and enterprises need.
In this paper,used the research methods that combine the qualitative analysis with the quantitative analysis,combine the system dynamics modeling with example analysis,reflected the principle which combines the theory with the practice.The results of research has an important meaning to the theory of regional logistics development in China,provides a good theoretical basis and reference to solve practical problems.
引文
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