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产业链变革的动态视角下通信运营商合作伙伴选择与合作机制研究
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摘要
近年来,随着全业务运营的开展、三网融合的推进、移动互联网的普及、OTT业务的崛起、民营资本即将进入等重大事件的发生,通信行业发生了急剧的变化,通信行业产业链亦出现了革命性的变革,通信运营商的主导地位受到了来自多方主体的挑战。在行业变革导致产业链变化的背景下,市场竞争的多样化和持续加剧对通信运营商整合资源的能力提出了更高的挑战。对产业链资源的整合能力,考验的则是通信运营商与产业链主体之间展开合作共赢的能力。基于电信产业剧烈变革背景下通信行业产业链的变化状况,立足通信运营商,研究了产业链动态变革背景下通信运营商如何选择合作伙伴、如何与合作伙伴展开深入合作等问题。
     本文的主要研究内容及研究成果包括:
     (1)通信产业变革的深层次解读及合作主体企业分类研究。通信产业深层次变革的主要内容包括:三网融合的试点与推进、全业务运营、移动互联网的普及、智能终端的更新和融合、通信技术的革新、OTT业务及OTT公司的崛起、物联网和云计算广泛应用等。分析了通信行业变革对电信产业链和通信运营商的影响,认为在纵向产业链的基础上,电信行业的变革将深化和扩展横向产业链,电信商业模式创新将形成基于双边市场的侧向产业链,纵向、横向和侧向三个维度的产业链相互交织将形成网状化产业链形态;并依据企业在产业链中与通信运营商的地位关系,将通信运营商的合作伙伴划分为了非对称企业合作主体和对称企业合作主体。其中,非对称企业合作主体包括内容提供商、服务提供商、设备提供商和终端制造商等;对称企业合作主体主要是指广电运营商和其他通信运营商。
     (2)产业链变革动态视角下非对称企业合作伙伴的选择研究。对于非对称企业合作伙伴的选择,分别构建了通信运营商选择合作伙伴的共性指标体系和特性指标体系。综合层次分析法和熵值法,采用组合权重计算方法确定了各指标的权重,在此基础上,构建了合作伙伴选择的静态模糊评价体系。考虑到长期合作应重点考虑合作伙伴未来的发展能力变化,建立了基于BP神经网络方法的合作伙伴未来发展趋势预测及其动态模糊评价模型。以湖南移动在推进全业务运营时选择光交换机的设备提供商为例,进行了实证研究。研究结果显示,在静态评价中,湖南移动将选择中兴通讯或华为作为合作伙伴;而在考虑到企业的动态发展时,湖南移动应更多地考虑与华为展开深入合作。
     (3)通信运营商与非对称企业合作伙伴的合作机制设计研究。构建了由信任机制、信息共享机制、利益与风险协调机制和合作监督机制所组成的电信运营商与合作伙伴的合作机制,为电信运营商与合作伙伴展开业务往来和合作过程提供重要保障。并提出了利益分成、全资、参股、控股、定制与合作开发以及构建联盟共6种可能的合作模式。其中,利益与风险协调机制采用的是改进Shapley值法,合作监督机制的设计则是依托于演化博弈模型的仿真结果。
     (4)通信运营商与对称企业合作伙伴的合作问题研究。首先,就通信运营商与广电运营商在物理建设和业务融合方面的合作模式问题展开了研究,通过构建业务合作模型和结盟模型,提出了成立合资公司、宽带接入合作、在增值业务节目内容等方面深度合作等广电运营商与通信运营商之间可能的合作模式;然后,研究了不同运营商之间如何合作、共享共建基础网络设施问题,具体而言:首先构建了非规制条件下网络共建与接入的博弈模型,然后提出了共享共建模式的解决方案。研究发现政府的管制(尤其是接入费用的管制)是非常必要的,基于研究结果,提出了运营商之间共建共享基础网络和基础设施的实施建议。
     最后,就如何应对行业剧变,提出了通信运营商的对策措施;就政府如何推动通信业变革、正视通信运营商地位,提出了对策建议。
     本文的创新主要体现在以下几个方面:①深入分析电信产业变革的基础上,综合原有的纵向产业链、深化扩展出的横向产业链、基于双边市场的侧向产业链,提出了电信产业的网状产业链形态。②立足通信运营商,依据其在产业链中的地位关系,将合作主体分类为非对称企业合作主体和对称企业合作主体,并提出了共性指标体系和特性指标体系。③从产业链变革和合作伙伴发展的动态视角,构建了非对称企业合作伙伴的动态选择模型,丰富了合作选择理论和方法。
In recent years, with the development of the whole business operations, three nets fusion propulsion, the rise of the popularity of mobile Internet, OTT business and private capital entering and other major events, dramatic changes have taken place in the communications industry, communication industry chain is also revolutionarily changing, the dominant position of the telecommunication operators is under various main challenge. Changes lead to changes in the industry of background in the industry, the diversification of market competition intensified and sustained for communication operators integrate resources ability put forward higher challenge. For industrial chain resources integration ability, test is the communication operators for win-win cooperation with the industrial chain main body ability. Based on telecom industry under the background of drastic reform of communication industry chain, based on the communication operators, industry chain is studied in this paper dynamic change under the background of telecommunication operators how to choose partners, how to conduct in-depth cooperation with the partners, etc.
     In this paper, the main research contents and research achievements are as following:
     (1) Research on profound interpretation of communication industry changing and enterprise cooperation subject classification. Communication industry the main content of the deep changes including: three nets fusion of pilot and promote, the whole business operation, the popularity of mobile Internet, smart terminal updates and fusion, communication technology innovation, and OTT company OTT business, with the rise of the Internet of things and cloud computing are widely used, etc. Communications industry change on telecom industry chain are analyzed and the impact of communication operators, think on the basis of vertical industry chain, the change of telecom industry will deepen and extend the industrial chain, telecom business model innovation will form lateral chain based on bilateral market, longitudinal, transverse and lateral three dimensions of the intertwined to form the networked industry chain form. According to enterprise status relationship with telecommunication operators in the industry chain, divide the partners of telecommunication operators in order to cooperation main body and symmetric asymmetric enterprise cooperation main body. Among them, asymmetric enterprise cooperation main body including content providers, service providers, equipment providers and terminal manufacturers, etc.; Symmetric enterprise cooperation main body refers primarily to the radio and television operators and other communications operators.
     (2) Research on asymmetric enterprise partners selection with dynamic perspective of industrial chain changing. For asymmetric enterprise partner choice, respectively to build the communication operators choose partners the common index system and index system of personality. Integrated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy value method, using the combination weighting method to determine the weight of each index, on this basis, build a static fuzzy evaluation of the partner selection system. Considering the long-term cooperation consider your partner's future development should focus on change, was established based on BP neural network of partners for the future development trend prediction and dynamic fuzzy evaluation model. When China Mobile Group Hunan Co., Ltd. advances all business operations and chooses optical switch equipment provider, for example, has carried on the empirical research. Results show that in the static evaluation, China Mobile Hunan will choose ZTE or HuaWei as a partner. While considering the dynamic development of the enterprise, China Mobile Hunan should conduct cooperation with HuaWei instead of ZTE.
     (3) Research on the cooperation mechanism design between the communication operators and asymmetric enterprise partners'. Built by the trust mechanism, information sharing mechanism, benefit and risk supervision and coordination mechanism and cooperation mechanism of telecom operators and partners of cooperation mechanism, for telecom operators and partners provide important guarantee for business and cooperation process. Then, we put forward the share interests, wholly owned, equity participation, holding, custom and cooperative development, and building alliances, a total of6kinds of possible cooperation mode. Among them, the benefits and risks coordination mechanism is improved Shapley value method, cooperation supervision mechanism design is based on evolutionary game model in the simulation results.
     (4) Research on the cooperation between the communication operators and symmetric partners. First, communication operators and cable operators in the area of physical construction and business integration cooperation pattern question for study, by building a business cooperation model and alliance model, proposed the establishment of the joint venture company, broadband access and cooperation, in such aspects as content value-added service depth cooperation between radio and television operators and communications operators possible cooperation mode; Then studied how to cooperation and sharing between different operators to build network infrastructure issues, specifically:first of all, build the regulation under the condition of network to build with access to the game model, and then put forward the solution for sharing to build model. The study found that the government controls (especially access cost control) is very necessary, based on research results, put forward the co-construction and sharing between operators based network and infrastructure implementation Suggestions.
     Finally, on the issue that how to deal with the upheaval, and puts forward the countermeasures for communication operators; Government how to facilitate industry change and the telecommunication operators, puts forward the countermeasures and Suggestions.
     This article's innovations are as followings:①on the basis of in-depth analysis of the telecom industry reform, integrated the original vertical industry chain, deepen the extension of industrial chain based on bilateral market, lateral chain, put forward the network of telecom industry chain form.②Based communications operators, according to the relations in the position in the industry chain, categorizing cooperation main body as the main body in the asymmetric enterprise cooperation and symmetric enterprise cooperation main body, and put forward the common index system and the characteristics of index system.③From the dynamic perspective of industry chain and partner development change, build the asymmetric dynamic selection model of enterprise partners, enriched the option theory and method of cooperation.
引文
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