湖南生猪业发展及其风险管理研究
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摘要
湖南是全国生猪业大省,生猪业是全省国民收入的重要来源之一。风险及其管理是影响湖南生猪业可持续发展的一个关键问题。论文以“风险识别—风险评价——风险控制”为基本框架,运用多种研究方法,采取定量研究与定性研究相结合,并结合作者长期农村工作的实践,对湖南生猪业发展及其风险管理进行了系统研究,主要的研究工作及创新如下：
(1)揭示了湖南生猪业发展及其风险管理的理论基础。畜牧生产理论能够为生猪业发展及其风险管理提供专门知识和基本线索。风险社会理论认为,现代社会是一个风险社会,而风险本身可能来源于社会的任何一个领域,这是生猪业风险管理的宏观背景。风险管理理论为生猪业的风险管理提供了一个基本的行动框架,这一框架包括风险识别、风险评价和风险控制三个环节。另外,系统理论能够为生猪业的风险管理提供方法论指导。
(2)分析了湖南生猪业的发展现状,并对其产量进行了预测。论文分析了国内外生猪业发展的现状及其存在的问题,尤其是对湖南生猪的品种分布、地域分布、生产方式、发展的优劣势进行了详细分析,并利用灰色预测模型对湖南及全国未来数年的生猪产量进行了预测,结果表明湖南生猪业的产量是一种波动性的持续增长趋势。
(3)识别和分析了湖南生猪业的风险类型,并建构了一个完整的生猪业风险识别指标体系。论文对湖南生猪业存在猪肉质量安全风险、环境风险、市场风险和灾变风险的成因和典型风险事件进行详细分析,并运用德尔菲法和文献分析法,初步确定了湖南生猪业风险评价指标体系,通过专家调查法确定了最终评价指标体系。
(4)运用多种方法对湖南生猪业的安全性进行了评价,并对湖南生猪业的市场风险进行了实证评价。利用层次分析法得到了在四种风险类型中,猪肉质量安全风险所占的权重最大,而环境风险所占的权重最小,相对分散型生产模式,生猪的规模化生产模式的风险更大。另外,通过对19个基本风险事件发生概率的调查,并利用最小割集模型进行计算,得出了生猪风险事件的发生概率及各基本风险事件的概率重要度。基于偏好指数的语言多准则决策方法对湖南生猪业在不同的生产模式下的风险进行定性评价。最后,基于2000年以来湖南生猪业市场风险数据,利用数学模型对生猪市场风险进行了评价。结果显示,湖南生猪市场风险存在年度间差异显著,正向高度风险年度、正向一般风险年度、无风险年度、负向一般风险年度和负向高度风险年度。
(5)对湖南生猪业的风险控制进行了定性分析,并提出了提高湖南生猪业风险防控能力的政策建议。在风险要素的控制方面提出了一系列的措施：在生猪与猪肉产品的生产过程中建议推行HACCP体系；在养殖场址选择、防污设施建设、粪污综合利用等方面加强监控和引导；实施政策性补偿,建立生猪期货制度、提供信息预警服务；加强生猪保险体系、疫病防治体系的建设与完善等。同时从理念转变、技术创新、产业升级和保障机制建立与完善等方面,提出了提高湖南生猪业风险防控能力的保障措施。
Hunan is a big province of live pig industry, which is an important source of national income of the province. Risk management is a critical problem that influences the sustainable development of Hunan live pig industry. This paper systematically studies the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry, adopting the basic framework of "risk identification-risk assessment-risk control", applying multiple research methods and combining quantitative research and qualitative research. The practice of long-term job in the countryside of the author is combined as well. The major research work and innovation include:
(1) The theoretical basis of the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry is revealed. The livestock production theory can provide specialized knowledge and fundamental clues for the development and risk management of live pig industry. Risk society theory believes that modern society is a risk society and the risk itself probably stems from any field of the society, which is the macro background of risk management of live pig industry. Risk management theory provides a basic action framework for risk management of live pig industry. The framework includes three links:risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. Furthermore, system theory can provide methodological guidance for the risk management of live pig industry.
(2) The development status of Hunan live pig industry is described and its output is predicted. The development status and existing problems of live pig industry at home and abroad is analyzed in the paper, in particular the breed distribution, geographic distribution, production modes and advantages and disadvantages of the development of Hunan live pig industry is analyzed in detail. Applying grey prediction model, the output of live pig of Hunan and the whole country in the coming years is predicted. The results indicate that the output of Hunan live pig industry presents volatility but a trend of sustained growth.
(3) The types of risks of Hunan live pig industry is recognized and analyzed, and an integrated risk identification index system of live pig industry is constructed. The causes of pork quality and safety risk, environment risk, market risk and catastrophe risk, as well as typical risk events of Hunan live pig industry are analyzed in detail in the paper. By Delphi method and Literature Analysis, the risk assessment index system of Hunan live pig industry is preliminarily determined. By expert investigation method, the final assessment index system is determined.
(4) The safety of Hunan live pig industry is evaluated through multiple methods and its market risk is empirically assessed. The results of analytic hierarchy process indicate:within four types of risks, pork quality and safety risk accounts for the biggest weight and environment risk accounts for the smallest. Compared with distributed production mode, scale production mode is riskier. In addition, through investigation of probability of occurrence of19basic risk events and calculation by minimal cutest model, the probability of occurrence of live pig risk events and probability importance of each basic risk events are concluded. Based on the preference for index language, multi-criteria decision-making method can be also applied to qualitatively evaluate the risks of Hunan live pig industry in different production modes. Finally, according to the market risk data of Hunan live pig industry since the year of2000, the live pig market risk is assessed with mathematical model. The results demonstrate that there are positive high risk years, positive general risk years, risk-free years, negative general risk years and negative high risk years in Hunan live pig market risks.
(5) A qualitative analysis is conducted on the risk control of Hunan live pig industry and policy suggestion for improving risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry is put forward. A series of measures of risk factor control are proposed:implementing HACCP system in the production process of live pig and pork products; enhancing monitoring and guidance in the aspects of breeding site selection, anti-pollution facility construction and manure comprehensive utilization; implementing policy compensation, building hog futures system and providing information warning service; strengthening the construction and improvement of live pig insurance system, disease prevention and control system. In the meantime, safeguard measures are also proposed to improve the risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry from aspects of concept changing, technological innovation, industry upgrading, construction and improvement of safeguard mechanism.
(1)揭示了湖南生猪业发展及其风险管理的理论基础。畜牧生产理论能够为生猪业发展及其风险管理提供专门知识和基本线索。风险社会理论认为,现代社会是一个风险社会,而风险本身可能来源于社会的任何一个领域,这是生猪业风险管理的宏观背景。风险管理理论为生猪业的风险管理提供了一个基本的行动框架,这一框架包括风险识别、风险评价和风险控制三个环节。另外,系统理论能够为生猪业的风险管理提供方法论指导。
(2)分析了湖南生猪业的发展现状,并对其产量进行了预测。论文分析了国内外生猪业发展的现状及其存在的问题,尤其是对湖南生猪的品种分布、地域分布、生产方式、发展的优劣势进行了详细分析,并利用灰色预测模型对湖南及全国未来数年的生猪产量进行了预测,结果表明湖南生猪业的产量是一种波动性的持续增长趋势。
(3)识别和分析了湖南生猪业的风险类型,并建构了一个完整的生猪业风险识别指标体系。论文对湖南生猪业存在猪肉质量安全风险、环境风险、市场风险和灾变风险的成因和典型风险事件进行详细分析,并运用德尔菲法和文献分析法,初步确定了湖南生猪业风险评价指标体系,通过专家调查法确定了最终评价指标体系。
(4)运用多种方法对湖南生猪业的安全性进行了评价,并对湖南生猪业的市场风险进行了实证评价。利用层次分析法得到了在四种风险类型中,猪肉质量安全风险所占的权重最大,而环境风险所占的权重最小,相对分散型生产模式,生猪的规模化生产模式的风险更大。另外,通过对19个基本风险事件发生概率的调查,并利用最小割集模型进行计算,得出了生猪风险事件的发生概率及各基本风险事件的概率重要度。基于偏好指数的语言多准则决策方法对湖南生猪业在不同的生产模式下的风险进行定性评价。最后,基于2000年以来湖南生猪业市场风险数据,利用数学模型对生猪市场风险进行了评价。结果显示,湖南生猪市场风险存在年度间差异显著,正向高度风险年度、正向一般风险年度、无风险年度、负向一般风险年度和负向高度风险年度。
(5)对湖南生猪业的风险控制进行了定性分析,并提出了提高湖南生猪业风险防控能力的政策建议。在风险要素的控制方面提出了一系列的措施：在生猪与猪肉产品的生产过程中建议推行HACCP体系；在养殖场址选择、防污设施建设、粪污综合利用等方面加强监控和引导；实施政策性补偿,建立生猪期货制度、提供信息预警服务；加强生猪保险体系、疫病防治体系的建设与完善等。同时从理念转变、技术创新、产业升级和保障机制建立与完善等方面,提出了提高湖南生猪业风险防控能力的保障措施。
Hunan is a big province of live pig industry, which is an important source of national income of the province. Risk management is a critical problem that influences the sustainable development of Hunan live pig industry. This paper systematically studies the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry, adopting the basic framework of "risk identification-risk assessment-risk control", applying multiple research methods and combining quantitative research and qualitative research. The practice of long-term job in the countryside of the author is combined as well. The major research work and innovation include:
(1) The theoretical basis of the development and risk management of Hunan live pig industry is revealed. The livestock production theory can provide specialized knowledge and fundamental clues for the development and risk management of live pig industry. Risk society theory believes that modern society is a risk society and the risk itself probably stems from any field of the society, which is the macro background of risk management of live pig industry. Risk management theory provides a basic action framework for risk management of live pig industry. The framework includes three links:risk identification, risk assessment and risk control. Furthermore, system theory can provide methodological guidance for the risk management of live pig industry.
(2) The development status of Hunan live pig industry is described and its output is predicted. The development status and existing problems of live pig industry at home and abroad is analyzed in the paper, in particular the breed distribution, geographic distribution, production modes and advantages and disadvantages of the development of Hunan live pig industry is analyzed in detail. Applying grey prediction model, the output of live pig of Hunan and the whole country in the coming years is predicted. The results indicate that the output of Hunan live pig industry presents volatility but a trend of sustained growth.
(3) The types of risks of Hunan live pig industry is recognized and analyzed, and an integrated risk identification index system of live pig industry is constructed. The causes of pork quality and safety risk, environment risk, market risk and catastrophe risk, as well as typical risk events of Hunan live pig industry are analyzed in detail in the paper. By Delphi method and Literature Analysis, the risk assessment index system of Hunan live pig industry is preliminarily determined. By expert investigation method, the final assessment index system is determined.
(4) The safety of Hunan live pig industry is evaluated through multiple methods and its market risk is empirically assessed. The results of analytic hierarchy process indicate:within four types of risks, pork quality and safety risk accounts for the biggest weight and environment risk accounts for the smallest. Compared with distributed production mode, scale production mode is riskier. In addition, through investigation of probability of occurrence of19basic risk events and calculation by minimal cutest model, the probability of occurrence of live pig risk events and probability importance of each basic risk events are concluded. Based on the preference for index language, multi-criteria decision-making method can be also applied to qualitatively evaluate the risks of Hunan live pig industry in different production modes. Finally, according to the market risk data of Hunan live pig industry since the year of2000, the live pig market risk is assessed with mathematical model. The results demonstrate that there are positive high risk years, positive general risk years, risk-free years, negative general risk years and negative high risk years in Hunan live pig market risks.
(5) A qualitative analysis is conducted on the risk control of Hunan live pig industry and policy suggestion for improving risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry is put forward. A series of measures of risk factor control are proposed:implementing HACCP system in the production process of live pig and pork products; enhancing monitoring and guidance in the aspects of breeding site selection, anti-pollution facility construction and manure comprehensive utilization; implementing policy compensation, building hog futures system and providing information warning service; strengthening the construction and improvement of live pig insurance system, disease prevention and control system. In the meantime, safeguard measures are also proposed to improve the risk prevention and control ability of Hunan live pig industry from aspects of concept changing, technological innovation, industry upgrading, construction and improvement of safeguard mechanism.
引文
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