农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘国际竞争力的影响研究
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摘要
我国柑橘栽培历史悠久,种类品种繁多,是世界柑橘生产与出口大国。改革开放以来,随着农村经济体制改革的不断深化和农业科技进步,柑橘产业得到快速发展,现已成为福建、浙江、广东、江西、湖南、湖北、广西、四川、重庆等省(区、市)部分地区农村经济中的一大支柱产业。但是近些年来,一方面由于柑橘面积不断扩大,年产量逐年上升,柑橘供给已出现结构性过剩,亟待调整柑橘产业结构和产品结构,拓宽国际国内两个市场；另一方面由于农业投入品价格持续上涨和人民币趋势性升值,导致柑橘生产成本较快上升和出口价格上涨,在一定程度上弱化了我国柑橘的价格竞争力,亟待政府和生产者从宏观与微观层面着力减少其负面影响；再一方面由于人们生活水平不断提高,国内外柑橘市场的产品质量与品牌竞争日渐激烈,亟待生产者优化品种结构、提升产品质量、打造知名品牌,增强柑橘质量竞争力。因此,深入研究和探讨农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘国际竞争力的影响及其应对政策措施,对于有效防止柑橘生产和出口贸易下滑,确保柑橘产业持续、健康、协调发展和农民稳定增收无疑具有重要的理论价值与实践意义。
农业投入品价格和农产品国际竞争力问题历来就是国内外农业经济领域关注的焦点之一,也是柑橘产业经济学者重点研究的课题,但对前者与后者的关联问题却未引起人们所重视,迄今也无其他学者专门考究。为了深入研究和探讨农业投入品价格对柑橘国际竞争力的影响,本文通过构建农业投入品价格对柑橘国际竞争力影响的理论分析框架,采用多种研究方法,围绕前者对后者影响的因果关系与作用机理这个主题展开理论分析和实证研究。
本文综合运用国际经济学、竞争力经济学、微观经济学、市场价格学、新制度经济学的相关理论与原理,全面诠释了农产品国际竞争力的形成根源及表现形式,深入分析了农业投入品价格的形成机制、农业投入品价格与农产品国际竞争力的关联性,系统解读了农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘国际竞争力影响的因果关系及作用机理,并得出有待实证检验的结论与推论。
本文通过构建多元线性回归模型,全面考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对我国柑橘整体国际竞争力的影响方向和大小。研究结果表明：不同时期投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力的影响存在明显的差异性和一定的可微控性。从其影响方向来看,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的正面影响略多于负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的负面影响是主要的。就其影响大小而言,农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的正面影响程度多大于其负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的负面影响程度一般大于其正面影响。
本文通过构建多元线性回归模型和采用纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,系统考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对宽皮柑橘、甜橙、柚、柠檬和其它类柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：不同时期农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对柑橘各类品种国际竞争力的影响存在明显的差异性和一定的可微控性。从影响方向来看,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的正面影响略多于其负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的负面影响明显多于其正面影响。就影响大小而言,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的正面影响程度多大于其负面影响,且对柠檬、甜橙、宽皮柑橘的影响程度一般大于对其它类柑橘和柚的影响；人民币升值对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的负面影响程度大于其正面影响,且对柠檬、甜橙、宽皮柑橘的负面影响程度一般大于对柚和其它类柑橘的影响。
本文以宽皮柑橘和甜橙为例,通过构建多元线性回归模型和纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,重点考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对柑橘国内资源成本系数的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：当期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数下降,前期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数上升,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度大于甜橙；当期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数上升,前期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数下降,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙。
本文以宽皮柑橘和甜橙为例,通过构建多元线性回归模型和纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,重点考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对柑橘社会净收益的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：当期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益上升,前期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益下降,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙；当期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益下降,前期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益上升,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙。
本文通过构建面板数据模型和多层面的比较分析方法,全方位考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对我国柑橘主产区不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘潜在国际竞争力均产生一定的负面影响。在相同经营方式条件下,农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对较大规模专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度小于对较小规模专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响,而对较大规模兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度大于对较小规模兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响；在相同种植规模条件下,农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度小于对兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响。说明在现阶段农地制度条件下,柑橘主产区大规模专业化经营方式为柑橘适度规模经营模式。
本文基于4-8章实证研究所得的主要结论,提出以下几个方面的对策措施及政策建议：优化农业投入品资源配置,提高柑橘投入产出效率；健全农业投入品价格长效调控机制,保持柑橘生产成本相对稳定；转变柑橘产业发展方式,强化柑橘产品竞争优势；紧贴国际国内柑橘市场,优化品种结构提升产品质量；完善相关政策法规,营造增强柑橘国际竞争力的制度环境。
本文在前人研究的基础上,从以下几个方面进行了创新性探索：
第一,本文从投入品价格和竞争力视角,通过构建多元线性回归模型,首次考察了化肥、农药、劳动力价格和人民币汇率对柑橘整体及各类品种国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,直观检验了前者对后者影响的因果关系,度量了两者间的关联程度。这种研究弥补了农业及农产品国际竞争力领域研究的欠缺。
第二,本文选择农业投入品价格与人民币汇率作为自变量和种植规模与经营方式等多个虚拟变量构建变系数固定效应面板数据模型,首次探讨了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小及其差异性。这种研究完善了农业和农产品国际竞争力领域研究的不足。
第三,本文首次采用多层面的纵向比较和横向比较相结合的分析方法,就农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对我国柑橘各类品种的显性国际竞争力和潜在国际竞争力以及不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向与大小进行了系统的比较分析,得到较为完整、准确的分析结论与判断。这种多层面的比较分析方法可能为深入研究其它园艺产品或农产品国际竞争力提供新思路。
China is a major producer and exporter of citrus in the world with a long history in citrus cultivation and various species of citrus. With the continuous deepening of the rural economy reform and the development of agricultural technology since the reform and opening up, the citrus industry has developed rapidly.It has been the major pillar industries of the rural economy in some areas of Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan,Hubei, Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). However, in recent years, at first, with the continuous expanding of citrus-growing area and the increasing of annual output year by year, citrus supply is structural surplus.This problem must be solved by adjusting industrial structure and product structure of the citrus and broadening international and domestic market;Secondly, the continuous increasing prices of agricultural inputs and RMB appreciation trend which promote the increasing of citrus production cost and the export prices result in weakening our citrus prices competitiveness to some extent. The government and citrus producers must make efforts from the macro and micro perspective to reduce the negative impact; Thirdly, with the improving of living standard, the competition on quality and brand become more imminent in the domestic and foreign markets.So producter is in an urgent need of improving varieties and quality, building brands and improve quality competitive. Therefore, studying and discussing the impacts of agricultural inputs prices increase on the international competitiveness of the citrus and making policies and measures undoubtedly have very important theoretical merit and practical significance on effectively preventing citrus production and export trade from declining and ensuring the sustainable, steady,coordinated development of citrus industry and keeping rural incomes increasing.
Agricultural inputs prices and the international competitiveness of agricultural products are always not only the focus of the agricultural economics profession both here and abroad but also the main subject of the citrus industry economists.But the association between the former and the latter is failed to be noticed, neither do other scholars explore it. In order to study and discuss the impact of inputs prices increase on the international competitiveness of the citrus deeply, this article develops theoretical framework to have the theoretical analysis and empirical research on causality and mechanism of impact of agricultural inputs prices on the international competitiveness of citrus by varied methods.
By the theories and principles of international economics,competitive economics, microeconomics, market price and new institutional economics,this article has a comprehensive interpretation on formation cause and manifestations of the international competitiveness of agricultural products,an in-depth analysis on agricultural inputs price formation mechanism,the correlation of agricultural inputs price and international competitiveness of agricultural products and a desperation on the causal relationship and mechanism impact of agricultural inputs prices increase on the citrus international competitiveness systemly,then draw conclusions and inferences to be an empirical test.
This article studies the direction and degree of the impact of changing of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of the citrus overall by building multiple linear regression models.The results show that the impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation at different period on the international competitiveness of citrus overall is different and controlled.From the direction of impacts, there are more positive impacts of precious and current increasing of agricultural inputs prices on varied international competitiveness index of the citrus overall than negative impacts. On the contrast, there are more negative impacts of precious and current RMB appreciation on varied international competitiveness index of the citrus overall. From the degree of impact, the positive impacts of precious and current increasing of agricultural inputs prices on varied competitiveness index of the citrus overall are larger than negative ones. The negative impacts of precious and current RMB appreciation on varied competitiveness index of the citrus overall are larger than positive ones.
This article researches and analyses the direction and degree of the impact of changing of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of tangerine, orange,grapefruit, lemon and citrus fruit, nes by building multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that there are obvious differences and certain control among the impacts of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation at different period on the international competitiveness of citrus in different species. From the direction of the impact, positive impacts of the precious and current agricultural inputs prices increase on varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species is slightly larger than negative impacts; negative impacts of RMB appreciation on varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species is more than positive impacts.From the degree of the impact,positive impact of current and previous prices increase on the varied international competitiveness index of the citrus of different species is more than the negative effects and degree of impact on lemon,orange and Tangerine is greater than citrus fruit,nes and grapefruit. Negative impacts of RMB appreciation on the varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species are greater than the positive ones. The negative effects on lemon, orange and tangerine is greater than grapefruit and citrus fruit, nes.
Taking tangerine and orange for examples, this article researches and analyses the direction and degree of changing of impacts of agricultural inputs price and the RMB exchange rate on the DRCC of citrus by constructing multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that increasing of the current agricultural inputs price cause DRCC of tangerine and orange decline. The increasing of the precious agricultural inputs prices results in the DRCC of tangerine and orange rise.Influence of current and previous agricultural inputs prices on tangerine is larger than orange's; Current RMB appreciation led to DRCC of tangerine and orange rise and precious RMB appreciation led to DRCC of tangerine and orange decline and influence of precious and current RMB appreciation on DRCC of tangerine is slightly smaller than orange's.
Taking tangerine and orange for examples, this article researches and analyses direction and degree of impacts of agricultural inputs price and the RMB exchange rate on NSP of citrus by constructing multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that the increasing of current agricultural inputs price cause NSP of tangerine and orange rise. The increasing of the precious agricultural inputs prices leads to the NSP of tangerine and orange decline. Influence of current and previous agricultural inputs prices on tangerine is smaller than orange; Current RMB appreciation led to NSP of tangerine and orange decline and precious RMB appreciation led to NSP of tangerine and orange rise.Influence of current and previous RMB appreciation on NSP of tangerine is slightly smaller than orange.
This article analyses and makes comprehensive survey on the direction and degree of impact of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus with different scale and different mode of operation by building panel data model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that increasing of agricultural inputs prices and RMB appreciation have negative impacts on potential competitiveness of citrus with different scales and different modes of operation in China main citrus producing ares. Under the same cultivation condition, negative impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with professional management on larger-scale is smaller than smaller-scale's, negative impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with concurrent business operating on larger-scale is larger than smaller-scale's. Under the condition of the same scale, the negative impact of inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with professional management is smaller than concurrent business operating.Under the conditions of agricultural land System at this stage, large-scale professional management for citrus is moderate scale operation mode in main citrus producing areas.
Based on the conclusions of empirical study from Chapter four to Chapter eight, there are five measures and policies to be recommended:to optimize resource allocation of agricultural inputs and improve input-output efficiency of citrus; to improve the long regulation of control agricultural inputs prices and keep citrus production costs relatively stable; to promote the transformation of the development mode of the citrus industry and strengthen competitiveness of citrus; to look for international and domestic markets and improve structure of the varieties and quality of the citrus; to improve the relevant policies and regulations and create institutional environment which enhance the international competitiveness of the citrus.
This article will makes innovative exploration on the basis of previous studies:
Firstly, from the eview of input and competitiveness,this article study the direction and degree of impact of price of chemical fertilizer,pesticides,labor and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus overall and the citrus of various varieties through multiple linear regression model for the first time. This method of quantitative analysis intuitively verify the causal relationship of impact of the former on the later, measures the degree of association between the two.The study make up for the lack of research in the field of agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products.
Secondly, it the first time for this article to choose agricultural input prices and the RMB exchange rate as explanatory variables and planting and management regulatory with varied dummy variables to build a variable coefficients fixed effects panel data model to investigate the direction,degree and difference of influence of agricultural input prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus with different scale and different mode of operation.This study may perfect research in the field of agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products.
Thirdly, this article analyses direction and degree of impact of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on dominant or potential competitiveness of citrus as a whole and of different types and with different scale and different mode of operation by comprehensive comparison analysis which combining multi-level horizontal comparison with longitudinal comparisons for the first time. At last,it draws a complete and exact conclusion.This multifaceted dimension comparative analysis may provides a new idea for in-depth study international competitiveness of other horticultural products or agricultural products.
农业投入品价格和农产品国际竞争力问题历来就是国内外农业经济领域关注的焦点之一,也是柑橘产业经济学者重点研究的课题,但对前者与后者的关联问题却未引起人们所重视,迄今也无其他学者专门考究。为了深入研究和探讨农业投入品价格对柑橘国际竞争力的影响,本文通过构建农业投入品价格对柑橘国际竞争力影响的理论分析框架,采用多种研究方法,围绕前者对后者影响的因果关系与作用机理这个主题展开理论分析和实证研究。
本文综合运用国际经济学、竞争力经济学、微观经济学、市场价格学、新制度经济学的相关理论与原理,全面诠释了农产品国际竞争力的形成根源及表现形式,深入分析了农业投入品价格的形成机制、农业投入品价格与农产品国际竞争力的关联性,系统解读了农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘国际竞争力影响的因果关系及作用机理,并得出有待实证检验的结论与推论。
本文通过构建多元线性回归模型,全面考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对我国柑橘整体国际竞争力的影响方向和大小。研究结果表明：不同时期投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力的影响存在明显的差异性和一定的可微控性。从其影响方向来看,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的正面影响略多于负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的负面影响是主要的。就其影响大小而言,农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的正面影响程度多大于其负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘整体国际竞争力各指标的负面影响程度一般大于其正面影响。
本文通过构建多元线性回归模型和采用纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,系统考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对宽皮柑橘、甜橙、柚、柠檬和其它类柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：不同时期农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对柑橘各类品种国际竞争力的影响存在明显的差异性和一定的可微控性。从影响方向来看,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的正面影响略多于其负面影响,人民币升值对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的负面影响明显多于其正面影响。就影响大小而言,当期和前期农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的正面影响程度多大于其负面影响,且对柠檬、甜橙、宽皮柑橘的影响程度一般大于对其它类柑橘和柚的影响；人民币升值对柑橘不同类品种国际竞争力各指标的负面影响程度大于其正面影响,且对柠檬、甜橙、宽皮柑橘的负面影响程度一般大于对柚和其它类柑橘的影响。
本文以宽皮柑橘和甜橙为例,通过构建多元线性回归模型和纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,重点考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对柑橘国内资源成本系数的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：当期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数下降,前期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数上升,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度大于甜橙；当期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数上升,前期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙国内资源成本系数下降,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙。
本文以宽皮柑橘和甜橙为例,通过构建多元线性回归模型和纵向与横向比较相结合的分析方法,重点考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对柑橘社会净收益的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：当期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益上升,前期农业投入品价格上涨引致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益下降,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙；当期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益下降,前期人民币升值导致宽皮柑橘和甜橙社会净收益上升,且当期和前期对宽皮柑橘的影响程度小于甜橙。
本文通过构建面板数据模型和多层面的比较分析方法,全方位考察了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,并进行了比较分析。研究结果表明：农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对我国柑橘主产区不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘潜在国际竞争力均产生一定的负面影响。在相同经营方式条件下,农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对较大规模专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度小于对较小规模专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响,而对较大规模兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度大于对较小规模兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响；在相同种植规模条件下,农业投入品价格上涨和人民币升值对专业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的负面影响程度小于对兼业化经营的柑橘潜在国际竞争力的影响。说明在现阶段农地制度条件下,柑橘主产区大规模专业化经营方式为柑橘适度规模经营模式。
本文基于4-8章实证研究所得的主要结论,提出以下几个方面的对策措施及政策建议：优化农业投入品资源配置,提高柑橘投入产出效率；健全农业投入品价格长效调控机制,保持柑橘生产成本相对稳定；转变柑橘产业发展方式,强化柑橘产品竞争优势；紧贴国际国内柑橘市场,优化品种结构提升产品质量；完善相关政策法规,营造增强柑橘国际竞争力的制度环境。
本文在前人研究的基础上,从以下几个方面进行了创新性探索：
第一,本文从投入品价格和竞争力视角,通过构建多元线性回归模型,首次考察了化肥、农药、劳动力价格和人民币汇率对柑橘整体及各类品种国际竞争力的影响方向和大小,直观检验了前者对后者影响的因果关系,度量了两者间的关联程度。这种研究弥补了农业及农产品国际竞争力领域研究的欠缺。
第二,本文选择农业投入品价格与人民币汇率作为自变量和种植规模与经营方式等多个虚拟变量构建变系数固定效应面板数据模型,首次探讨了农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向和大小及其差异性。这种研究完善了农业和农产品国际竞争力领域研究的不足。
第三,本文首次采用多层面的纵向比较和横向比较相结合的分析方法,就农业投入品价格和人民币汇率变动对我国柑橘各类品种的显性国际竞争力和潜在国际竞争力以及不同规模不同经营方式的柑橘国际竞争力的影响方向与大小进行了系统的比较分析,得到较为完整、准确的分析结论与判断。这种多层面的比较分析方法可能为深入研究其它园艺产品或农产品国际竞争力提供新思路。
China is a major producer and exporter of citrus in the world with a long history in citrus cultivation and various species of citrus. With the continuous deepening of the rural economy reform and the development of agricultural technology since the reform and opening up, the citrus industry has developed rapidly.It has been the major pillar industries of the rural economy in some areas of Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan,Hubei, Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). However, in recent years, at first, with the continuous expanding of citrus-growing area and the increasing of annual output year by year, citrus supply is structural surplus.This problem must be solved by adjusting industrial structure and product structure of the citrus and broadening international and domestic market;Secondly, the continuous increasing prices of agricultural inputs and RMB appreciation trend which promote the increasing of citrus production cost and the export prices result in weakening our citrus prices competitiveness to some extent. The government and citrus producers must make efforts from the macro and micro perspective to reduce the negative impact; Thirdly, with the improving of living standard, the competition on quality and brand become more imminent in the domestic and foreign markets.So producter is in an urgent need of improving varieties and quality, building brands and improve quality competitive. Therefore, studying and discussing the impacts of agricultural inputs prices increase on the international competitiveness of the citrus and making policies and measures undoubtedly have very important theoretical merit and practical significance on effectively preventing citrus production and export trade from declining and ensuring the sustainable, steady,coordinated development of citrus industry and keeping rural incomes increasing.
Agricultural inputs prices and the international competitiveness of agricultural products are always not only the focus of the agricultural economics profession both here and abroad but also the main subject of the citrus industry economists.But the association between the former and the latter is failed to be noticed, neither do other scholars explore it. In order to study and discuss the impact of inputs prices increase on the international competitiveness of the citrus deeply, this article develops theoretical framework to have the theoretical analysis and empirical research on causality and mechanism of impact of agricultural inputs prices on the international competitiveness of citrus by varied methods.
By the theories and principles of international economics,competitive economics, microeconomics, market price and new institutional economics,this article has a comprehensive interpretation on formation cause and manifestations of the international competitiveness of agricultural products,an in-depth analysis on agricultural inputs price formation mechanism,the correlation of agricultural inputs price and international competitiveness of agricultural products and a desperation on the causal relationship and mechanism impact of agricultural inputs prices increase on the citrus international competitiveness systemly,then draw conclusions and inferences to be an empirical test.
This article studies the direction and degree of the impact of changing of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of the citrus overall by building multiple linear regression models.The results show that the impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation at different period on the international competitiveness of citrus overall is different and controlled.From the direction of impacts, there are more positive impacts of precious and current increasing of agricultural inputs prices on varied international competitiveness index of the citrus overall than negative impacts. On the contrast, there are more negative impacts of precious and current RMB appreciation on varied international competitiveness index of the citrus overall. From the degree of impact, the positive impacts of precious and current increasing of agricultural inputs prices on varied competitiveness index of the citrus overall are larger than negative ones. The negative impacts of precious and current RMB appreciation on varied competitiveness index of the citrus overall are larger than positive ones.
This article researches and analyses the direction and degree of the impact of changing of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of tangerine, orange,grapefruit, lemon and citrus fruit, nes by building multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that there are obvious differences and certain control among the impacts of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation at different period on the international competitiveness of citrus in different species. From the direction of the impact, positive impacts of the precious and current agricultural inputs prices increase on varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species is slightly larger than negative impacts; negative impacts of RMB appreciation on varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species is more than positive impacts.From the degree of the impact,positive impact of current and previous prices increase on the varied international competitiveness index of the citrus of different species is more than the negative effects and degree of impact on lemon,orange and Tangerine is greater than citrus fruit,nes and grapefruit. Negative impacts of RMB appreciation on the varied international competitiveness index of citrus of different species are greater than the positive ones. The negative effects on lemon, orange and tangerine is greater than grapefruit and citrus fruit, nes.
Taking tangerine and orange for examples, this article researches and analyses the direction and degree of changing of impacts of agricultural inputs price and the RMB exchange rate on the DRCC of citrus by constructing multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that increasing of the current agricultural inputs price cause DRCC of tangerine and orange decline. The increasing of the precious agricultural inputs prices results in the DRCC of tangerine and orange rise.Influence of current and previous agricultural inputs prices on tangerine is larger than orange's; Current RMB appreciation led to DRCC of tangerine and orange rise and precious RMB appreciation led to DRCC of tangerine and orange decline and influence of precious and current RMB appreciation on DRCC of tangerine is slightly smaller than orange's.
Taking tangerine and orange for examples, this article researches and analyses direction and degree of impacts of agricultural inputs price and the RMB exchange rate on NSP of citrus by constructing multiple linear regression model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that the increasing of current agricultural inputs price cause NSP of tangerine and orange rise. The increasing of the precious agricultural inputs prices leads to the NSP of tangerine and orange decline. Influence of current and previous agricultural inputs prices on tangerine is smaller than orange; Current RMB appreciation led to NSP of tangerine and orange decline and precious RMB appreciation led to NSP of tangerine and orange rise.Influence of current and previous RMB appreciation on NSP of tangerine is slightly smaller than orange.
This article analyses and makes comprehensive survey on the direction and degree of impact of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus with different scale and different mode of operation by building panel data model and adopting the combing method of vertical comparison and lateral comparison.The results show that increasing of agricultural inputs prices and RMB appreciation have negative impacts on potential competitiveness of citrus with different scales and different modes of operation in China main citrus producing ares. Under the same cultivation condition, negative impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with professional management on larger-scale is smaller than smaller-scale's, negative impact of agricultural inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with concurrent business operating on larger-scale is larger than smaller-scale's. Under the condition of the same scale, the negative impact of inputs prices increase and RMB appreciation on potential competitiveness of citrus with professional management is smaller than concurrent business operating.Under the conditions of agricultural land System at this stage, large-scale professional management for citrus is moderate scale operation mode in main citrus producing areas.
Based on the conclusions of empirical study from Chapter four to Chapter eight, there are five measures and policies to be recommended:to optimize resource allocation of agricultural inputs and improve input-output efficiency of citrus; to improve the long regulation of control agricultural inputs prices and keep citrus production costs relatively stable; to promote the transformation of the development mode of the citrus industry and strengthen competitiveness of citrus; to look for international and domestic markets and improve structure of the varieties and quality of the citrus; to improve the relevant policies and regulations and create institutional environment which enhance the international competitiveness of the citrus.
This article will makes innovative exploration on the basis of previous studies:
Firstly, from the eview of input and competitiveness,this article study the direction and degree of impact of price of chemical fertilizer,pesticides,labor and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus overall and the citrus of various varieties through multiple linear regression model for the first time. This method of quantitative analysis intuitively verify the causal relationship of impact of the former on the later, measures the degree of association between the two.The study make up for the lack of research in the field of agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products.
Secondly, it the first time for this article to choose agricultural input prices and the RMB exchange rate as explanatory variables and planting and management regulatory with varied dummy variables to build a variable coefficients fixed effects panel data model to investigate the direction,degree and difference of influence of agricultural input prices and the RMB exchange rate on international competitiveness of citrus with different scale and different mode of operation.This study may perfect research in the field of agriculture and the international competitiveness of agricultural products.
Thirdly, this article analyses direction and degree of impact of agricultural inputs prices and the RMB exchange rate on dominant or potential competitiveness of citrus as a whole and of different types and with different scale and different mode of operation by comprehensive comparison analysis which combining multi-level horizontal comparison with longitudinal comparisons for the first time. At last,it draws a complete and exact conclusion.This multifaceted dimension comparative analysis may provides a new idea for in-depth study international competitiveness of other horticultural products or agricultural products.
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