老龄化对种植业生产影响研究
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摘要
随着我国社会经济发展和计划生育政策的严格实施,人口出生率持续下降、人口平均寿命不断延长,这使得我国人口年龄结构快速转变,人口老龄化现象突出。到2010年,我国60岁以上的老龄人口已占我国总人口的13.26%。在我国农村中,大规模的以青壮年为主的农村劳动力向城市迁移,使得农村的人口老龄化程度比城市更加严重。农村人口结构的显著变化也带来了农业劳动力年龄结构的显著改变,农业劳动力的平均年龄呈现逐年递增的趋势,且老龄劳动力占有较大比重。对此现象,很多学者表示堪忧,他们认为老龄人口一方面生理机能下降,自身体力不能胜任繁重的农业劳动；另一方面老龄人口受教育程度低,思想僵化,不利于新的农业技术的推广和采用,从而会影响到我国农业的生产,甚至引发粮食安全问题。
但已有研究表明：一方面,在大田生产中,我国小规模农户受农业生产条件或市场条件的外部约束而表现出集体决策(即农户种植决策和周围人的种植决策具有普遍相似性)的形式。土地规模较小的小农户采取从众决策将是一种理性选择。大田农业生产技术(包括整个生产过程中涉及的生产技术)的易模仿性,并不需要经营者个人具有特别高的决策能力,简单模仿将大大降低对经营者人力资本的需求；另一方面,近些年,农业生产机械在我国得到了长足的发展,农业生产的大部分环节甚至全部环节都实现了机械化。农业生产环节的机械化替代了经营者的体力劳动,不但使得农业生产中总的劳动投入量减少,还降低了经营者的劳动强度(首先发展机械化的生产环节一般是对经营者劳动强度要求比较高的生产环节),这将使得农业生产对经营者体力方面的要求大大降低。
随着越来越多的农业生产环节机械化的实现,以及在实际农业生产中,我国小规模农户采取一定程度的集体决策形式,这使得农业生产对劳动者体力与人力资本的要求没有那么严格了。那么,老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本还是农业生产的严重制约因素吗?由于种植业作物的机械综合作业程度不同,以及作物生产技术的可模仿程度也有所不同,那么,老龄劳动力对不同作物的影响程度是否相同呢?反映在作物中,老龄化对作物生产影响程度不同的边界可能是什么?围绕这些问题本文对老年农户和年轻农户的农业生产行为进行了理论分析和实证考察,并对两类农户在农业生产实践中的集体决策程度和机械对劳动替代程度进行了深入访谈。本文主要研究内容和相关结论如下：
研究内容一：老龄化对农户种植决策的影响
本部分内容主要考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在农户种植决策行为上的差异。如果两类农户之间在作物种植决策行为上不存在差异,则表明作物现有生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本对农户种植决策的影响,老龄化不会影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。反之,则表明作物现有农业生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式还不足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本在农户种植决策中的作用,老龄化将影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。
该内容的验证可分为以下两个子内容进行验证：
子内容一：老龄化对农户种植面积决策的影响
该部分内容首先是根据作物机械综合作业水平划分为两大类作物,再分别比较老龄农户与年轻农户在不同作物中农户种植面积决策行为的差异,来说明老龄化对农户种植面积是否产生影响。研究结果表明,在机械化程度高的大田作物中,如小麦、玉米和大豆,老龄农户与年轻农户种植面积没有差异,而在机械化程度不太高或某些劳动强度大的环节未实现机械化的作物中,如水稻和棉花两类作物,老龄农户与年轻农种植面积表现出一定差异,老龄农户将倾向于减少该类作物的种植面积。
子内容二：老龄化对农户主要要素投入决策的影响
该内容的研究具体化为比较老龄农户与年轻农户在两大类作物(作物划分标准如子内容一,下同)的化肥、农药、机械和劳动用工量上是否存在差异。在作物主要要素投入中,对化肥和农药的使用量、使用时间以及使用种类的决策能力,体现了对经营者相对较高人力资本的要求。而对作物机械投入和劳动用工量的决策,对经营者人力资本的要求相对较低。研究结果表明,在现有农业生产条件下,老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在作物要素投入并未表现差异。这表明,无论作物机械化程度的高低,也无论投入要素对经营者人力资本要求的高低,老龄农户在作物的主要要素投入上并不比年轻农户少。
研究内容二：老龄化对作物种植决策实施结果(单产)的影响
对该内容的研究是对农户农业生产过程的第二步实证,是对农户种植决策验证之后的延续,两部分的结合才能最终确定老龄化对种植业是否存在影响。该部分主要是考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在对作物种植决策实施结果上是否存在差异,也就是老龄劳动力从事的作物单产是否显著差别于年轻劳动力从事的作物单产。如果两者无明显差别,则表明在作物种植决策相同的情况下,老龄农户实施种植决策的效果上与年轻农户没有差别。反之亦然。实证结果表明,无论是在机械化程度高的作物还是在机械化程度低的作物上,两类农户的单产并无显著差异。通过农户类型与劳动用工量的交互项的考察发现,两类农户的劳动效率在大多数作物中并没有显著差异,但在玉米和大豆两种作物中,老年农户的劳动效率要低于年轻农户的劳动效率,这可能是由于东北大规模经营土地的农户大部分生产依靠自有机械而非雇佣机械。
研究内容三：现实农业生产实践中,农户集体决策的形式和机械对劳动的替代程度。
上述两部分内容主要是对老年农户与年轻农户在作物生产行为上是否存在差异的实证检验,本部分内容是针对经营者的体力与人力资本在农业生产实践中是否产生影响的机理进行案例补充。本部分研究通过深入访谈的形式,着重了解农户是如何做出种植决策的?以及农业生产中哪些生产环节实现了机械化?从而充分考察农业生产中集体决策的程度和机械对劳动的替代程度。通过访谈发现,尽管农户分散、每户经营规模很小,但是,通过村里能人组织、非正式合作或者专业合作组织等形式,农户生产决策和生产技术的同质程度很高。农户利用农机“外包”服务的程度也很高,农业生产中劳动强度大的生产环节基本实现了机械化,剩下劳动强度小的生产环节老年人能够完全胜任。
综合三大部分研究内容得出的主要结论可以概括为：在我国大田作物生产中,人地比例较小的农户生产存在普遍的集体决策形式,农业生产技术易于模仿,老龄化对种植业生产的影响将因作物的机械化程度不同(对劳动者体力要求不同)而有所不同。从老龄化对小麦、玉米和大豆等机械化程度高的作物的种植决策以及种植决策实施结果均没有显著影响,到老龄化对水稻和棉花等机械化程度低(或者未实现机械化的生产环节对劳动者体力要求较高)的作物种植决策(这两种作物主要体现在种植面积决策的差异)上有显著影响。可以进一步推论,在农户必须独立做出生产决策或者作物生产技术更新变化速度快或者无任何机械替代劳动的情况下,老龄化对该类作物的影响很可能不仅表现在作物种植决策上,还可能表现在作物种植决策的实施结果上,即老龄化对作物的影响将会更加明显。
本研究在理论上的一个有意义的发现是：在农业生产存在集体决策和机械对劳动替代的情况下,人力资本在一些作物生产中的作用被弱化,甚至完全不起作用。但是,在集体决策程度或者机械替代劳动程度不高的情况下,人力资本的作用在就可能明显表现出来。而老龄化是我国及今后很长一段时间必须面对的基本国情,因此,需要我们为不断减弱人力资本对农业生产起作用的途径和不利影响程度而努力。
Along with the Chinese social and economic development, strict implementation of family planning policies, the birth rate is declining continually, meanwhile, the average life expectancy of the population is extending. Until2010, the aging population over the age of60have accounted for13.26percent of Chinese total population. Massive young rural labor to urban migration lends to that the rural population aging is more severe than urban. Significant rural population structure change has brought significant changes in the age structure of the agricultural labor force; the average age of the agricultural labor force presents the incremental aging trend. Many scholars are very worried about this phenomenon, they think that the aging population on the one hand has declined in physiological function, their own physical strength can not be competent for heavy agricultural labor, on the other hand the low educational level, rigid ideology, can not be conducive to the promotion and adoption of new agricultural technologies, so this will affect Chinese grain production, even lead to food security.
However, studies have shown that small scale farmers in our country were external constrained by the conditions of agricultural production and market conditions and showed the same decision-making form, namely similarity between farmer planting decision-making and people around. Field production of smaller scale land need not individual farmers with particularly high decision-making capacity, small farmers' conformity decision-making will be a rational choice. In the recent years, the agricultural production machinery in our country has obtained the considerable development; agricultural production mechanization is a substitute for operator physical work which makes agricultural production decrease labor input gradually.
As the agricultural production mode changing, many production processes in the agriculture has achieved mechanization, actual agricultural production exists certain degree of the same form of decision-making, which makes that the agricultural production has not strict demands on the labor force's physical strength and manpower capital.Is the physical decline of the aging labor force and low manpower capital the agricultural production conditional factors? Due to the different degrees of planting crops machinery integrated operation, there is different imitable degree of crops production technology, thus, the degree of aging labor force influencing on different crops could be differences. Around these problems, the paper gives theoretical analysis and empirical investigation to agricultural production behavior of elderly farmers and young farmers, and discusses the collective decision-making level and mechanical substitution of labor of deferent farmers in the agricultural performance. The research content and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Content1:Aging effects on farmers'planting decision-making.
The section research investigates the differences between elderly farmers and young farmers in crop planting decision-makings. If there are differences between them, which shows modern agricultural production mechanization and the same agricultural production decision-making can not offset the role of aging labor force with low manpower capital in farmers'planting decision-making. If there is non difference, which shows modern agricultural production mechanization and the same agricultural production decision-making can offset the role of aging labor force with low manpower capital in farmers'planting decision-making, aging is not influencing on famers'planting decision-making.
The content validation is divided into two sub-contents to verify:
Sub-content1, Aging effects on farmers'planting area decision-making.
This section is divided by crop machinery comprehensive work capacity, crop in the high machinery comprehensive work capacity, through the comparison of the differences in the farmers'planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers, to illustrate whether aging influencing on farmers'planting area decision-making. The result of research shows that, in the high degree of mechanization of field crops, such as wheat, corn and soybean, there is non difference in the farmers'planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers. While crops in the low degree of mechanization or some large labor intensity link without mechanization, such as rice and cotton, there are differences in the farmers' planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers, aged farmers would tend to reduce this kind of crop planting area.
And other variables effect on farmers' crop planting proportion which match our expectations:agricultural products' own price have a positive effect on the agricultural planting proportion decision-makings, while the input factor price have a negative effect on the crop acreage proportion, the total area of arable land have a negative effect on food crops acreage area proportion, the number of agricultural labor have a positive effect on the proportion of food crops planted. The incomes from non-agriculture rising, on the one hand can improve the ability of families to cope with risk, to increase planted area of more high-risk economic crops, on the other hand, will increase the opportunity cost of leisure to increase cultivating labor-saving crops. Non-agriculture labor force of a certain proportion of crop sowing depends on the combined effect of these two mechanisms.
Sub-content2, Aged farmers effect on main elements input decision-making.
This section researches on crop input decision-making which continues crop planting area decision-making.
By comparing concretely elderly farmers and young farmers in crop fertilizer, pesticides, machinery and labor quantity to show whether exist differences. One aspect is embodying in the high manpower capital, the quantity of chemical fertilizer and pesticide using, and decision-making capability in time using and crop species using. The other aspect is embodying in the low manpower capital, the decision-making to quantity of machinery and labor force usage. The result of research shows that, in the current agricultural production conditions, there is non difference in crop elements input between elderly labor force and young labor force. And no matter in the field crop with high degree of mechanization, such as wheat, corn and soybean, or in the field crop with low degree of mechanization or some large labor intensity link without mechanization, such as rice and cotton, aged farmers are not less than young farmers in the main elements input (fertilizer, pesticides, machinery and labor quantity).
The results of other control elements are consistent with our expectations:the price of the agricultural product itself has a positive effect on element inputs, while the price of elements has a negative effect on elements use quantity, the action that other elements' prices takes on elements use quantity depends on whether the two elements is an alternative or complementary relationship. Numbers of Agricultural labor force have positive effects on the amount of elements input investment, such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, labor and other elements. Meanwhile it has negative effects on the mechanical inputs. Areas of arable land have a negative effect on the element input investment. Non-agricultural labor forces have negative effects on labor quantity, and positive effects on elements input, such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides etc.
Content2:Aging effects on the results of crop planting decision-making implementation.
The section research investigates the differences between elderly farmers and young farmers in the results of crop planting decision-makings implementation. That is aging labor forces'crop yield per unit whether is significantly different from the young labor forces'. If there is not significantly difference, which shows there is no difference in the results of crop planting decision-making implementation between elderly farmers and young farmers, vice versa. Demonstration to this content is extension of demonstration to crop planting decision-making, crop in the different degree of crop machinery comprehensive work capacity take advantage of production function to empirical test, the result of the test shows, no matter in the high degree of mechanization or low, there is non difference in the yield per unit between two kinds of farmers. However, through the investigation and finding in the interaction of the types of farmers and labor quantity, in the corn and soybean, elderly farmer's efficiency is lower than young farmer's.
Content3:The degree of farmer collective decision-making and the degree of substitution of machinery for labor in reality.
This section finds out how the farmers make planting decision-makings and which production processes in agricultural production takes actions in the reality by in-depth interviews, thus fully examine the level of collective decision-making in agricultural production and the machinery's substitution of labor. Through the interview, the conclusion can be got that although the farmers locate dispersedly, the household scale is very small, but by the form of a capable organization, informal cooperation, a high homogeneous level of the farmers' production decision-makings and production technology, the usage level of agricultural "outsourcing" is also high, labor-intensive production processes in the agricultural production has achieved mechanization, the elderly can be fully qualified with the rest production processes which needn't much labor.
Integrating the three research aspects, the following conclusions can be got:In the conditions of high degree of collective decision-making form and easy imitation of agricultural technology, the difference of substitution of machinery for labor, thus, the difference of degree of aging effecting on crop production. From the aspect of aging is not affecting on planting decision-making and the result of planting decision-making implementation in wheat, corn and soybean such these crops to the aspect of aging is affecting on planting decision-making notability in rice and cotton such these crops. It can be further inference, in the conditions of farmers must be independent to production decision-making, fast crop technology updates or without any machinery to replace labor, aging effects on crops will be more obvious.
One significant theoretical discovery in this study is:in the condition that there is collective decision-making and mechanical substitution of labor, manpower capital is no longer important in agricultural production, the approach which manpower capital takes actions is replaced. However, in the different of circumstances of collective decision-making-making level and machinery to replace labor level, the effect of manpower capital will be apparent. Aging is a basic national condition which China has to face in the future for a long time; therefore, we need to continue to weaken the ways and level of the effect of manpower capital.
但已有研究表明：一方面,在大田生产中,我国小规模农户受农业生产条件或市场条件的外部约束而表现出集体决策(即农户种植决策和周围人的种植决策具有普遍相似性)的形式。土地规模较小的小农户采取从众决策将是一种理性选择。大田农业生产技术(包括整个生产过程中涉及的生产技术)的易模仿性,并不需要经营者个人具有特别高的决策能力,简单模仿将大大降低对经营者人力资本的需求；另一方面,近些年,农业生产机械在我国得到了长足的发展,农业生产的大部分环节甚至全部环节都实现了机械化。农业生产环节的机械化替代了经营者的体力劳动,不但使得农业生产中总的劳动投入量减少,还降低了经营者的劳动强度(首先发展机械化的生产环节一般是对经营者劳动强度要求比较高的生产环节),这将使得农业生产对经营者体力方面的要求大大降低。
随着越来越多的农业生产环节机械化的实现,以及在实际农业生产中,我国小规模农户采取一定程度的集体决策形式,这使得农业生产对劳动者体力与人力资本的要求没有那么严格了。那么,老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本还是农业生产的严重制约因素吗?由于种植业作物的机械综合作业程度不同,以及作物生产技术的可模仿程度也有所不同,那么,老龄劳动力对不同作物的影响程度是否相同呢?反映在作物中,老龄化对作物生产影响程度不同的边界可能是什么?围绕这些问题本文对老年农户和年轻农户的农业生产行为进行了理论分析和实证考察,并对两类农户在农业生产实践中的集体决策程度和机械对劳动替代程度进行了深入访谈。本文主要研究内容和相关结论如下：
研究内容一：老龄化对农户种植决策的影响
本部分内容主要考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在农户种植决策行为上的差异。如果两类农户之间在作物种植决策行为上不存在差异,则表明作物现有生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本对农户种植决策的影响,老龄化不会影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。反之,则表明作物现有农业生产环节的机械化程度和农业生产的集体决策形式还不足以抵消老龄劳动力的体力下降和低人力资本在农户种植决策中的作用,老龄化将影响到农户对该类作物的种植决策。
该内容的验证可分为以下两个子内容进行验证：
子内容一：老龄化对农户种植面积决策的影响
该部分内容首先是根据作物机械综合作业水平划分为两大类作物,再分别比较老龄农户与年轻农户在不同作物中农户种植面积决策行为的差异,来说明老龄化对农户种植面积是否产生影响。研究结果表明,在机械化程度高的大田作物中,如小麦、玉米和大豆,老龄农户与年轻农户种植面积没有差异,而在机械化程度不太高或某些劳动强度大的环节未实现机械化的作物中,如水稻和棉花两类作物,老龄农户与年轻农种植面积表现出一定差异,老龄农户将倾向于减少该类作物的种植面积。
子内容二：老龄化对农户主要要素投入决策的影响
该内容的研究具体化为比较老龄农户与年轻农户在两大类作物(作物划分标准如子内容一,下同)的化肥、农药、机械和劳动用工量上是否存在差异。在作物主要要素投入中,对化肥和农药的使用量、使用时间以及使用种类的决策能力,体现了对经营者相对较高人力资本的要求。而对作物机械投入和劳动用工量的决策,对经营者人力资本的要求相对较低。研究结果表明,在现有农业生产条件下,老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在作物要素投入并未表现差异。这表明,无论作物机械化程度的高低,也无论投入要素对经营者人力资本要求的高低,老龄农户在作物的主要要素投入上并不比年轻农户少。
研究内容二：老龄化对作物种植决策实施结果(单产)的影响
对该内容的研究是对农户农业生产过程的第二步实证,是对农户种植决策验证之后的延续,两部分的结合才能最终确定老龄化对种植业是否存在影响。该部分主要是考察老龄劳动力与年轻劳动力在对作物种植决策实施结果上是否存在差异,也就是老龄劳动力从事的作物单产是否显著差别于年轻劳动力从事的作物单产。如果两者无明显差别,则表明在作物种植决策相同的情况下,老龄农户实施种植决策的效果上与年轻农户没有差别。反之亦然。实证结果表明,无论是在机械化程度高的作物还是在机械化程度低的作物上,两类农户的单产并无显著差异。通过农户类型与劳动用工量的交互项的考察发现,两类农户的劳动效率在大多数作物中并没有显著差异,但在玉米和大豆两种作物中,老年农户的劳动效率要低于年轻农户的劳动效率,这可能是由于东北大规模经营土地的农户大部分生产依靠自有机械而非雇佣机械。
研究内容三：现实农业生产实践中,农户集体决策的形式和机械对劳动的替代程度。
上述两部分内容主要是对老年农户与年轻农户在作物生产行为上是否存在差异的实证检验,本部分内容是针对经营者的体力与人力资本在农业生产实践中是否产生影响的机理进行案例补充。本部分研究通过深入访谈的形式,着重了解农户是如何做出种植决策的?以及农业生产中哪些生产环节实现了机械化?从而充分考察农业生产中集体决策的程度和机械对劳动的替代程度。通过访谈发现,尽管农户分散、每户经营规模很小,但是,通过村里能人组织、非正式合作或者专业合作组织等形式,农户生产决策和生产技术的同质程度很高。农户利用农机“外包”服务的程度也很高,农业生产中劳动强度大的生产环节基本实现了机械化,剩下劳动强度小的生产环节老年人能够完全胜任。
综合三大部分研究内容得出的主要结论可以概括为：在我国大田作物生产中,人地比例较小的农户生产存在普遍的集体决策形式,农业生产技术易于模仿,老龄化对种植业生产的影响将因作物的机械化程度不同(对劳动者体力要求不同)而有所不同。从老龄化对小麦、玉米和大豆等机械化程度高的作物的种植决策以及种植决策实施结果均没有显著影响,到老龄化对水稻和棉花等机械化程度低(或者未实现机械化的生产环节对劳动者体力要求较高)的作物种植决策(这两种作物主要体现在种植面积决策的差异)上有显著影响。可以进一步推论,在农户必须独立做出生产决策或者作物生产技术更新变化速度快或者无任何机械替代劳动的情况下,老龄化对该类作物的影响很可能不仅表现在作物种植决策上,还可能表现在作物种植决策的实施结果上,即老龄化对作物的影响将会更加明显。
本研究在理论上的一个有意义的发现是：在农业生产存在集体决策和机械对劳动替代的情况下,人力资本在一些作物生产中的作用被弱化,甚至完全不起作用。但是,在集体决策程度或者机械替代劳动程度不高的情况下,人力资本的作用在就可能明显表现出来。而老龄化是我国及今后很长一段时间必须面对的基本国情,因此,需要我们为不断减弱人力资本对农业生产起作用的途径和不利影响程度而努力。
Along with the Chinese social and economic development, strict implementation of family planning policies, the birth rate is declining continually, meanwhile, the average life expectancy of the population is extending. Until2010, the aging population over the age of60have accounted for13.26percent of Chinese total population. Massive young rural labor to urban migration lends to that the rural population aging is more severe than urban. Significant rural population structure change has brought significant changes in the age structure of the agricultural labor force; the average age of the agricultural labor force presents the incremental aging trend. Many scholars are very worried about this phenomenon, they think that the aging population on the one hand has declined in physiological function, their own physical strength can not be competent for heavy agricultural labor, on the other hand the low educational level, rigid ideology, can not be conducive to the promotion and adoption of new agricultural technologies, so this will affect Chinese grain production, even lead to food security.
However, studies have shown that small scale farmers in our country were external constrained by the conditions of agricultural production and market conditions and showed the same decision-making form, namely similarity between farmer planting decision-making and people around. Field production of smaller scale land need not individual farmers with particularly high decision-making capacity, small farmers' conformity decision-making will be a rational choice. In the recent years, the agricultural production machinery in our country has obtained the considerable development; agricultural production mechanization is a substitute for operator physical work which makes agricultural production decrease labor input gradually.
As the agricultural production mode changing, many production processes in the agriculture has achieved mechanization, actual agricultural production exists certain degree of the same form of decision-making, which makes that the agricultural production has not strict demands on the labor force's physical strength and manpower capital.Is the physical decline of the aging labor force and low manpower capital the agricultural production conditional factors? Due to the different degrees of planting crops machinery integrated operation, there is different imitable degree of crops production technology, thus, the degree of aging labor force influencing on different crops could be differences. Around these problems, the paper gives theoretical analysis and empirical investigation to agricultural production behavior of elderly farmers and young farmers, and discusses the collective decision-making level and mechanical substitution of labor of deferent farmers in the agricultural performance. The research content and conclusions of this paper are as follows:
Content1:Aging effects on farmers'planting decision-making.
The section research investigates the differences between elderly farmers and young farmers in crop planting decision-makings. If there are differences between them, which shows modern agricultural production mechanization and the same agricultural production decision-making can not offset the role of aging labor force with low manpower capital in farmers'planting decision-making. If there is non difference, which shows modern agricultural production mechanization and the same agricultural production decision-making can offset the role of aging labor force with low manpower capital in farmers'planting decision-making, aging is not influencing on famers'planting decision-making.
The content validation is divided into two sub-contents to verify:
Sub-content1, Aging effects on farmers'planting area decision-making.
This section is divided by crop machinery comprehensive work capacity, crop in the high machinery comprehensive work capacity, through the comparison of the differences in the farmers'planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers, to illustrate whether aging influencing on farmers'planting area decision-making. The result of research shows that, in the high degree of mechanization of field crops, such as wheat, corn and soybean, there is non difference in the farmers'planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers. While crops in the low degree of mechanization or some large labor intensity link without mechanization, such as rice and cotton, there are differences in the farmers' planting area decision-making between elderly farmers and young farmers, aged farmers would tend to reduce this kind of crop planting area.
And other variables effect on farmers' crop planting proportion which match our expectations:agricultural products' own price have a positive effect on the agricultural planting proportion decision-makings, while the input factor price have a negative effect on the crop acreage proportion, the total area of arable land have a negative effect on food crops acreage area proportion, the number of agricultural labor have a positive effect on the proportion of food crops planted. The incomes from non-agriculture rising, on the one hand can improve the ability of families to cope with risk, to increase planted area of more high-risk economic crops, on the other hand, will increase the opportunity cost of leisure to increase cultivating labor-saving crops. Non-agriculture labor force of a certain proportion of crop sowing depends on the combined effect of these two mechanisms.
Sub-content2, Aged farmers effect on main elements input decision-making.
This section researches on crop input decision-making which continues crop planting area decision-making.
By comparing concretely elderly farmers and young farmers in crop fertilizer, pesticides, machinery and labor quantity to show whether exist differences. One aspect is embodying in the high manpower capital, the quantity of chemical fertilizer and pesticide using, and decision-making capability in time using and crop species using. The other aspect is embodying in the low manpower capital, the decision-making to quantity of machinery and labor force usage. The result of research shows that, in the current agricultural production conditions, there is non difference in crop elements input between elderly labor force and young labor force. And no matter in the field crop with high degree of mechanization, such as wheat, corn and soybean, or in the field crop with low degree of mechanization or some large labor intensity link without mechanization, such as rice and cotton, aged farmers are not less than young farmers in the main elements input (fertilizer, pesticides, machinery and labor quantity).
The results of other control elements are consistent with our expectations:the price of the agricultural product itself has a positive effect on element inputs, while the price of elements has a negative effect on elements use quantity, the action that other elements' prices takes on elements use quantity depends on whether the two elements is an alternative or complementary relationship. Numbers of Agricultural labor force have positive effects on the amount of elements input investment, such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, labor and other elements. Meanwhile it has negative effects on the mechanical inputs. Areas of arable land have a negative effect on the element input investment. Non-agricultural labor forces have negative effects on labor quantity, and positive effects on elements input, such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides etc.
Content2:Aging effects on the results of crop planting decision-making implementation.
The section research investigates the differences between elderly farmers and young farmers in the results of crop planting decision-makings implementation. That is aging labor forces'crop yield per unit whether is significantly different from the young labor forces'. If there is not significantly difference, which shows there is no difference in the results of crop planting decision-making implementation between elderly farmers and young farmers, vice versa. Demonstration to this content is extension of demonstration to crop planting decision-making, crop in the different degree of crop machinery comprehensive work capacity take advantage of production function to empirical test, the result of the test shows, no matter in the high degree of mechanization or low, there is non difference in the yield per unit between two kinds of farmers. However, through the investigation and finding in the interaction of the types of farmers and labor quantity, in the corn and soybean, elderly farmer's efficiency is lower than young farmer's.
Content3:The degree of farmer collective decision-making and the degree of substitution of machinery for labor in reality.
This section finds out how the farmers make planting decision-makings and which production processes in agricultural production takes actions in the reality by in-depth interviews, thus fully examine the level of collective decision-making in agricultural production and the machinery's substitution of labor. Through the interview, the conclusion can be got that although the farmers locate dispersedly, the household scale is very small, but by the form of a capable organization, informal cooperation, a high homogeneous level of the farmers' production decision-makings and production technology, the usage level of agricultural "outsourcing" is also high, labor-intensive production processes in the agricultural production has achieved mechanization, the elderly can be fully qualified with the rest production processes which needn't much labor.
Integrating the three research aspects, the following conclusions can be got:In the conditions of high degree of collective decision-making form and easy imitation of agricultural technology, the difference of substitution of machinery for labor, thus, the difference of degree of aging effecting on crop production. From the aspect of aging is not affecting on planting decision-making and the result of planting decision-making implementation in wheat, corn and soybean such these crops to the aspect of aging is affecting on planting decision-making notability in rice and cotton such these crops. It can be further inference, in the conditions of farmers must be independent to production decision-making, fast crop technology updates or without any machinery to replace labor, aging effects on crops will be more obvious.
One significant theoretical discovery in this study is:in the condition that there is collective decision-making and mechanical substitution of labor, manpower capital is no longer important in agricultural production, the approach which manpower capital takes actions is replaced. However, in the different of circumstances of collective decision-making-making level and machinery to replace labor level, the effect of manpower capital will be apparent. Aging is a basic national condition which China has to face in the future for a long time; therefore, we need to continue to weaken the ways and level of the effect of manpower capital.
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