贫困地区农户食物安全研究
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摘要
食物安全（Food security）事关国家安全与战略安全，关乎国计民生。关于食物安全的争论从未停止，2012年我国粮食生产实现九连增，在粮食连年丰收的形势下，中国粮食进口总量却创下历史新高，食物安全问题再次成为社会舆论焦点。当前我国粮食生产仍然存在不协调、不平衡和不可持续的问题，而且国家层面食物安全形势好转并不意味着每个家庭或个人能够实现食物安全，我国依然存在食物安全隐患的重点区域和脆弱人群，贫困地区农户食物安全是国家食物安全体系的短板。重视贫困地区农户食物安全是关注最底层弱势群体基本生存权利的需要，实现贫困地区农户食物安全有助于保障国家整体食物安全和社会和谐稳定，同时也是全面建设小康社会的必由之路。
本研究立足于贫困地区农村生产生活实际，从宏、微观不同视角，采用动态分析和静态分析相结合的方法来分析贫困地区农户食物安全保障中存在的问题，找寻改善贫困地区农户食物安全水平的方法和路径。全文共7章，第1-3章是本研究的基础和前提：第1章对研究背景和研究目的进行了交代，明确研究对象和研究方法，理清研究思路，对技术路线进行设计，指出研究的创新、困难和不足。第2章是关于贫困地区农户食物安全的基本理论，对相关概念进行界定和说明。第3章对三年饥荒的简要回顾，对贫困地区农户食物安全现状进行介绍，对样本县社会经济情况和食物安全条件进行分析。第4-6章从不同视角具体分析了贫困地区农村人口粮食消费及成因、贫困地区农户食物安全影响因素、基于食物安全视角的贫困地区农户食物消费结构。第4章基于省际面板数据，构建了贫困地区农村人口粮食消费成因分析模型，利用系统GMM方法，从宏观视角分析了粮食生产能力、粮食获取能力、粮食供给水平、消费心理、消费惯性等对贫困地区农村人口粮食消费的影响。第5章从微观视角分析了影响贫困地区农户食物安全的农户水平和村级水平因素。利用广义分层线性模型（HGLM），从微观食物供给能力、食物获取能力、食物利用能力和食物可持续性4个维度进行分析。第6章基于贫困地区农户食物安全视角，运用包含家庭特征的近乎理想需求模型（AIDS）和二次近乎理想需求模型（QUAIDS）对贫困地区农户食物消费结构进行分析。第7章，结论与展望。总结前文，结合实际给出提升贫困地区农户食物安全的政策建议。
本研究的主要结论如下：
1．贫困地区农村粮食生产能力和粮食获取能力有待进一步提高。对贫困地区农村人口而言，粮食生产能力对其粮食消费产生积极影响；粮食获取能力提高有助于其粮食消费实现由“量”安全到“质”提高的转变；粮食供给水平提高对其粮食消费产生正向显著影响；粮食消费不足是兼顾生产和消费决策后所做出的理性选择，食物消费结构未随食物支出增加而显著改善；粮食消费具有一定惯性，贫困地区农村食物安全保障过程中要因地制宜。在贫困地区应更加重视粮食生产，贫困地区农村人口更关注粮食自给，粮食能否自给不仅影响他们的食物消费水平，而且能够影响他们从事其它产业，尤其是非农产业的信心和决心。所以，政府应优先安排好粮食生产，然后再解决农民增收问题。在稳定粮食生产的基础上，提高农民家庭经营收入和工资性收入。
2.改善贫困地区农户食物安全过程中要统筹兼顾。在村级水平影响要素中，我们发现交通状况较好对改善贫困地区农户食物安全起到促进作用；通班车村庄食物安全状况比不通班车村庄差；有卫生室的村食物安全状况较好。在农户水平影响因素中，少儿抚养比与食物安全正相关，有儿童的家庭食物安全状况较好；有慢性病的家庭食物安全水平较差，收入（财富指数）水平越高的家庭食物安全状况越好；在外生活人口越多，在家成员食物安全水平越差，养猪的农户食物安全状况相对较好。改善贫困地区农户食物安全应该从农户、村级统筹实施。在影响食物安全的两级因素中，村级社区的作用未引起足够重视，应着力改善基层公共投入，致力于村级基础设施、通讯、医疗服务建设等，增强农村公共品供给的有效性。贫困地区留守人口是食物安全的脆弱群体，应加强对农村留守人口食物安全的关注。在收入总量增加的同时，应协调收入（贫富）差距对食物安全带来的不利影响。继城乡差距、区域差距之后，村庄内部经济条件差距对食物安全的影响不容忽视。
3．收入和价格是影响贫困地区农户食物消费水平提高的重要因素，增加收入、控制价格波动幅度可以显著提高贫困地区农户食物消费份额，并对改善其食物安全水平有利。控制大宗食物价格波动幅度对保障贫困地区最底层人口食物安全具有重要意义。提高贫困地区农户食物安全水平的关键是在食物消费结构中实现以淀粉类食物为主向淀粉类和蛋白质类相对均衡的饮食结构转变。家庭食物自产比因物理可及性和经济成本优势为贫困地区农户食物安全带来积极影响，这种优势在市场机制下可能不是很明显，但有利于改善家庭内部食物消费结构，促进其实现食物安全。
Food security is a matter of national security and people's livelihood, debate aboutfood security has never stopped. In2012, China's grain production had experiencedcontinuous increases in the past nine years. The encouraging situation had been seen ingrain harvests year after year, however, food imports hit a record at the same year, foodsecurity issues become the focus of public once again. In2013, Document No.1was stillmade to ensure the national food security and the effectively supply of major agriculturalproducts. In the case of national macro-level food security, China's grain production is stilluncoordinated, unbalanced and unsustainable, besides, an upturn in the food securitysituation at national level does not mean that each family or individual is able to achievefood security. There are still food unsecured hazards and vulnerable populations, ruralpopulations in poor regions are the short board of national food security system. Concerningabout basic survival needs of vulnerable groups, household food security in the poor areashelps to guarantee national food security and social harmony, becoming the only way ofbuilding a moderately prosperous society.
Based on the practical situation in poverty-stricken areas, the paper is an empiricalanalysis of food security in poor rural areas, combining macro and micro perspectives,using static and dynamic method, aiming to improve the food security situation for thepoverty-stricken rural population. The paper consists of7chapters; chapter1-3is thepremise of this paper: chapter1introduces research background and objectives. Chapter2isbasic theory on household food security in the poverty-stricken areas; Chapter3is thehistory and current food security situation in the poor areas. Chapters4–6are the empiricalanalysis of rural population in the poor areas from different perspectives, macro-perspectiveanalysis of grain consumption in the poor rural areas, influencing factors of poor householdsfrom the micro–perspective, and consuming structure based on food security. Chapter4empirically analyzed the influence of grain production capacity, food access, food availability, consumer psychology and consumer inertia to grain consumption in thepoverty-stricken areas. Chapter5analyzed the influencing factors affecting food securityusing the hierarchical generalized linear model. Chapter6analyzed the householdconsumption structure in poverty-stricken areas, using almost ideal demand model (AIDS)and quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS). Chapter7concludes the paper withsome policy recommendations.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
Food availability and food access need further improvement in poor rural areas. Theresults showed grain production capacity had a positive impact on food consumption, foodaccess was the key in the transition of "quantity" to “quality ", food availability produced apositive effect on grain consumption. Insufficient food consumption is the rational choice ofbalancing production and consumption for the poverty-stricken rural population; foodconsumption had not improved significantly with the increase of food expenditure.Measures of ensuring food security should be coordinated with the local conditions. Moreattention should be paid to food production in poor areas, the rural population in poverty-stricken areas are more concerned about food self-sufficiency, whether food self-sufficiencynot only can affect their level of food consumption, but also can affect the confidence anddetermination of engaging in other industries, especially in the non-agricultural industries.Therefore, the government should give priority to food production, and then solve theproblem of farmers' increasing income. On the basis of a stable grain production, thegovernment should create favorable conditions for improving operating income and wage ofrural households.
Improving household food security in the poor areas should be executed on overallconsideration. For the households in poverty-stricken areas, of all the village-level elements,traffic conditions played a catalytic role in improving food security; the food securitysituation of village with bus passes by was worse than that without a bus passes by; wherethere was a clinic, the food security situation was better. Among the household level factors,children's dependency ratio was associated with food security, the families with childrenfood security situation was better; poor families with chronic diseases were food insecure;the higher the level of family income (wealth index), the higher level of food security; moremember living outside, the much higher level of food insecurity at home, pig raising had apositive impact on household food security. Food security in the poverty-stricken areasshould be co-ordinated both the household-level and village-level. The importance ofvillage-level food security was not paid enough attention, the government should focus onthe improvement of primary public investment, dedicated to enhance village-level infrastructure and medical services, and enhance the effectiveness of public goods in ruralareas. The rural retaining population is vulnerable, and the concern for them should bestrengthened. While increasing in total income, the gap between income (wealth) putting anadverse impact on food security should be coordinated. Following the urban-rural gap andregional disparities, the economic gap within village cannot be ignored.
Income and prices were also the two main factors affecting the food consumption levelin the poverty-stricken areas, increasing their income and controlling price volatility cansignificantly improve the share of food consumption, and it is beneficial to food security.Controlling the staple food price volatility generates great significance to the protection ofthe lowest level population in the poor areas. The key to improve food security is shift foodconsumption structure from staple food to relatively balanced diet. Household foodproduction in poor areas have a positive impact on rural food security, due to the physicaland economic cost advantage, this advantage in the market mechanism may not be obvious,but it helps to improve the intra-household food consumption structure.
本研究立足于贫困地区农村生产生活实际，从宏、微观不同视角，采用动态分析和静态分析相结合的方法来分析贫困地区农户食物安全保障中存在的问题，找寻改善贫困地区农户食物安全水平的方法和路径。全文共7章，第1-3章是本研究的基础和前提：第1章对研究背景和研究目的进行了交代，明确研究对象和研究方法，理清研究思路，对技术路线进行设计，指出研究的创新、困难和不足。第2章是关于贫困地区农户食物安全的基本理论，对相关概念进行界定和说明。第3章对三年饥荒的简要回顾，对贫困地区农户食物安全现状进行介绍，对样本县社会经济情况和食物安全条件进行分析。第4-6章从不同视角具体分析了贫困地区农村人口粮食消费及成因、贫困地区农户食物安全影响因素、基于食物安全视角的贫困地区农户食物消费结构。第4章基于省际面板数据，构建了贫困地区农村人口粮食消费成因分析模型，利用系统GMM方法，从宏观视角分析了粮食生产能力、粮食获取能力、粮食供给水平、消费心理、消费惯性等对贫困地区农村人口粮食消费的影响。第5章从微观视角分析了影响贫困地区农户食物安全的农户水平和村级水平因素。利用广义分层线性模型（HGLM），从微观食物供给能力、食物获取能力、食物利用能力和食物可持续性4个维度进行分析。第6章基于贫困地区农户食物安全视角，运用包含家庭特征的近乎理想需求模型（AIDS）和二次近乎理想需求模型（QUAIDS）对贫困地区农户食物消费结构进行分析。第7章，结论与展望。总结前文，结合实际给出提升贫困地区农户食物安全的政策建议。
本研究的主要结论如下：
1．贫困地区农村粮食生产能力和粮食获取能力有待进一步提高。对贫困地区农村人口而言，粮食生产能力对其粮食消费产生积极影响；粮食获取能力提高有助于其粮食消费实现由“量”安全到“质”提高的转变；粮食供给水平提高对其粮食消费产生正向显著影响；粮食消费不足是兼顾生产和消费决策后所做出的理性选择，食物消费结构未随食物支出增加而显著改善；粮食消费具有一定惯性，贫困地区农村食物安全保障过程中要因地制宜。在贫困地区应更加重视粮食生产，贫困地区农村人口更关注粮食自给，粮食能否自给不仅影响他们的食物消费水平，而且能够影响他们从事其它产业，尤其是非农产业的信心和决心。所以，政府应优先安排好粮食生产，然后再解决农民增收问题。在稳定粮食生产的基础上，提高农民家庭经营收入和工资性收入。
2.改善贫困地区农户食物安全过程中要统筹兼顾。在村级水平影响要素中，我们发现交通状况较好对改善贫困地区农户食物安全起到促进作用；通班车村庄食物安全状况比不通班车村庄差；有卫生室的村食物安全状况较好。在农户水平影响因素中，少儿抚养比与食物安全正相关，有儿童的家庭食物安全状况较好；有慢性病的家庭食物安全水平较差，收入（财富指数）水平越高的家庭食物安全状况越好；在外生活人口越多，在家成员食物安全水平越差，养猪的农户食物安全状况相对较好。改善贫困地区农户食物安全应该从农户、村级统筹实施。在影响食物安全的两级因素中，村级社区的作用未引起足够重视，应着力改善基层公共投入，致力于村级基础设施、通讯、医疗服务建设等，增强农村公共品供给的有效性。贫困地区留守人口是食物安全的脆弱群体，应加强对农村留守人口食物安全的关注。在收入总量增加的同时，应协调收入（贫富）差距对食物安全带来的不利影响。继城乡差距、区域差距之后，村庄内部经济条件差距对食物安全的影响不容忽视。
3．收入和价格是影响贫困地区农户食物消费水平提高的重要因素，增加收入、控制价格波动幅度可以显著提高贫困地区农户食物消费份额，并对改善其食物安全水平有利。控制大宗食物价格波动幅度对保障贫困地区最底层人口食物安全具有重要意义。提高贫困地区农户食物安全水平的关键是在食物消费结构中实现以淀粉类食物为主向淀粉类和蛋白质类相对均衡的饮食结构转变。家庭食物自产比因物理可及性和经济成本优势为贫困地区农户食物安全带来积极影响，这种优势在市场机制下可能不是很明显，但有利于改善家庭内部食物消费结构，促进其实现食物安全。
Food security is a matter of national security and people's livelihood, debate aboutfood security has never stopped. In2012, China's grain production had experiencedcontinuous increases in the past nine years. The encouraging situation had been seen ingrain harvests year after year, however, food imports hit a record at the same year, foodsecurity issues become the focus of public once again. In2013, Document No.1was stillmade to ensure the national food security and the effectively supply of major agriculturalproducts. In the case of national macro-level food security, China's grain production is stilluncoordinated, unbalanced and unsustainable, besides, an upturn in the food securitysituation at national level does not mean that each family or individual is able to achievefood security. There are still food unsecured hazards and vulnerable populations, ruralpopulations in poor regions are the short board of national food security system. Concerningabout basic survival needs of vulnerable groups, household food security in the poor areashelps to guarantee national food security and social harmony, becoming the only way ofbuilding a moderately prosperous society.
Based on the practical situation in poverty-stricken areas, the paper is an empiricalanalysis of food security in poor rural areas, combining macro and micro perspectives,using static and dynamic method, aiming to improve the food security situation for thepoverty-stricken rural population. The paper consists of7chapters; chapter1-3is thepremise of this paper: chapter1introduces research background and objectives. Chapter2isbasic theory on household food security in the poverty-stricken areas; Chapter3is thehistory and current food security situation in the poor areas. Chapters4–6are the empiricalanalysis of rural population in the poor areas from different perspectives, macro-perspectiveanalysis of grain consumption in the poor rural areas, influencing factors of poor householdsfrom the micro–perspective, and consuming structure based on food security. Chapter4empirically analyzed the influence of grain production capacity, food access, food availability, consumer psychology and consumer inertia to grain consumption in thepoverty-stricken areas. Chapter5analyzed the influencing factors affecting food securityusing the hierarchical generalized linear model. Chapter6analyzed the householdconsumption structure in poverty-stricken areas, using almost ideal demand model (AIDS)and quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS). Chapter7concludes the paper withsome policy recommendations.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
Food availability and food access need further improvement in poor rural areas. Theresults showed grain production capacity had a positive impact on food consumption, foodaccess was the key in the transition of "quantity" to “quality ", food availability produced apositive effect on grain consumption. Insufficient food consumption is the rational choice ofbalancing production and consumption for the poverty-stricken rural population; foodconsumption had not improved significantly with the increase of food expenditure.Measures of ensuring food security should be coordinated with the local conditions. Moreattention should be paid to food production in poor areas, the rural population in poverty-stricken areas are more concerned about food self-sufficiency, whether food self-sufficiencynot only can affect their level of food consumption, but also can affect the confidence anddetermination of engaging in other industries, especially in the non-agricultural industries.Therefore, the government should give priority to food production, and then solve theproblem of farmers' increasing income. On the basis of a stable grain production, thegovernment should create favorable conditions for improving operating income and wage ofrural households.
Improving household food security in the poor areas should be executed on overallconsideration. For the households in poverty-stricken areas, of all the village-level elements,traffic conditions played a catalytic role in improving food security; the food securitysituation of village with bus passes by was worse than that without a bus passes by; wherethere was a clinic, the food security situation was better. Among the household level factors,children's dependency ratio was associated with food security, the families with childrenfood security situation was better; poor families with chronic diseases were food insecure;the higher the level of family income (wealth index), the higher level of food security; moremember living outside, the much higher level of food insecurity at home, pig raising had apositive impact on household food security. Food security in the poverty-stricken areasshould be co-ordinated both the household-level and village-level. The importance ofvillage-level food security was not paid enough attention, the government should focus onthe improvement of primary public investment, dedicated to enhance village-level infrastructure and medical services, and enhance the effectiveness of public goods in ruralareas. The rural retaining population is vulnerable, and the concern for them should bestrengthened. While increasing in total income, the gap between income (wealth) putting anadverse impact on food security should be coordinated. Following the urban-rural gap andregional disparities, the economic gap within village cannot be ignored.
Income and prices were also the two main factors affecting the food consumption levelin the poverty-stricken areas, increasing their income and controlling price volatility cansignificantly improve the share of food consumption, and it is beneficial to food security.Controlling the staple food price volatility generates great significance to the protection ofthe lowest level population in the poor areas. The key to improve food security is shift foodconsumption structure from staple food to relatively balanced diet. Household foodproduction in poor areas have a positive impact on rural food security, due to the physicaland economic cost advantage, this advantage in the market mechanism may not be obvious,but it helps to improve the intra-household food consumption structure.
引文
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