邻国经济、外国企业FDI与老挝经济发展
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摘要
1997年发生的亚洲金融风暴及2007年的金融海啸相继打击全球各国的经济增长。于2011年,OECD成员国只录得1.5%的经济增长,全球经济增长顿失动力。于是,世界各国都将目光放到经济增长较快的东南亚国家,例如老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸等成为世界经济新兴市场。
虽然老挝于过去数十年一直是东南亚国家中发展最落后的国家之一,但经过二十多年的改革开放后,老挝逐步吸引更多外资,现正是东南亚国家中经济增长较快的地区之一。东南亚国家的经济增长成为全球经济增长的火车头后,区内各国透过税务优惠等措施加快与邻近国家进行更紧密的经贸合作政策。随着经济的蓬勃发展,区内贸易及投资等活动不断增多。老挝经济改革开放后,投资环境逐步改善,受惠于周边国家经济高速增长的动力,来自泰国、中国及越南等邻国的直接投资不断增长。
然而,面对国内急速发展及外来投资不断增多,老挝政府必须谨慎分析各种急速变化所带来的影响,从而制订合适的政策,与中国、泰国、缅甸等周边国家共同发展,达至双赢。作者以老挝FDI作为中心,辅以中国、泰国等邻国的GDP、FDI资本存量、生产力等进行宏观经济的理论及实证分析,为老挝政府未来的发展方向做出指引。
本研究各章节的具体内容如下：
第1章,本章节主要提出全文的研究内容、目标及意义,并为全文订定严谨的框架,清晰的研究框架对全文脉络非常重要,确保本研究各章节都紧紧扣上主题。
第2章,根据过往不同学者所做的分析研究,综述发展中国家的邻国经济发展及对FDI的影响,以及FDI对东道国经济增长及就业的影响,并从中找出过去不同研究的缺失,从而令本研究得到更清晰的研究方向和目标。
第3章,本章节将会以老挝的经济、FDI的发展及投资环境的分析为其后研究FDI对老挝经济的影响打好根基。本章以老挝的历史、地理、政治、经济及文化等背景的一个综合分析作为开始,了解老挝的独特国情能令其后的理论及实证分析更为有效。其后,老挝FDI的分析由FDI于老挝发展的趋势开始,透彻了解FDI于老挝的发展情况；同时,本文将分析老挝改革开放以来的种种政策及法律修改对投资环境的影响,并通过与邻国吸引FDI的经验做出比较,了解外商到老挝投资的印象。最后,老挝政府为吸引FDI而大力推动发展特别经济区(SEZ),本章将会利用SWOT分析,研究老挝最近成立SEZ所遇到的机遇、威胁、优势及缺点,从而建议老挝政府做出针对性的政策,并参考邻国成功的经验,利用SEZ作为国家经济转型及发展的重要工具。
第4章,详细了解以往的研究分析,以及老挝政治、经济、文化、投资发展等重要背景后,本章将会分析邻国经济、外国企业FDI与老挝经济发展,此章贯穿全文,为本研究理论研究的重心。本章首先分析邻国经济发展对老挝经济的影响,了解到老挝及邻近区域日益频繁及紧密的经济活动会推动老挝的FDI发展后,本文将理论分析老挝FDI对老挝经济增长、就业及生态环境等多方面的影响,最后总结出邻国经济如何透过FDI影响老挝长远的经济发展。
第5章,文章开始理论研究结束,并正式进入实证研究部分,因实证研究的可靠度最主要取决于数据的质素及计量经济模型的运用。于是,本章节将会简单陈述后续章节将会用到的统计模型,让读者更了解统计结果的解释能力。
第6章,利用第五章所选取的各种合适的计量经济模型于第六至第七章做出实证研究,分析外国企业FDI对老挝经济发展的影响。第六章将会研究老挝与邻国经济互动的影响,因考虑到样本数量有限,只能选择对老挝经济影响最深远的国家作重点的实证分析,因中国及泰国对老挝总体FDI的影响举足轻重,而老挝政府的政策亦重点与泰国及中国发展更紧密的经贸关系,于是本文决定选择中国及泰国作代表分析邻国经济对老挝的影响。首先以VECM脉冲响应(Impulse response)及方差分解(Variance decomposition)分析老挝GDP,FDI及生产力与泰国宏观经济之间的动态影响。其后,本章将加入中国,同时研究老挝、泰国、中国之间经济的动态关系。
第7章,实证研究老挝FDI对其经济的影响,本章会首先以季节周期非线性自回归模型(Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model,SNAR)分析老挝FDI的发展特性,并将对此做出预测。其后,本文将以结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)分析FDI对老挝经济增长及生产力的影响。最后,由于经济变量异方差的特性,本文将会使用广义自回归条件异方差模型(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, GARCH)分析老挝FDI资本存量及GDP间的互动关系
第8章,通过理论及实证分析研究,本文已经对邻国经济、FD!对老挝经济影响有充分的了解,本章将会画龙点睛地将纯粹的学术研究转为具体的政策建议。
第9章,此章节总结全文,简洁有力地响应第一章所带出的问题,前后呼应。
The Asian Financial Crisis in1997and the Financial Tsunami in2008have significant adverse impacts on the financial systems all over the world. In2011, the annual GDP growth rate of OECD countries is only1.5%. The world economy has lost its driving force for sustainable growth. Therefore the Asian market is now becoming the focus of the economic development of the world. Global investors are now having their eyes on the rapid expanding Southeast Asian countries, such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.
Although Lao has been one of the least developed countries in the world, after over20years of economic reform, Lao is attracting more and more foreign investments and becomes one of the fastest growing economies in the whole. Countries in Southeast Asian have put much effort in collaborating with neighboring countries through policies like tax incentives etc. Due to the boosting economic development, there will be more and more trading and investment activities. After the economic reform, the investment environment in Lao has been improving. Benefiting from the boosting economies of neighboring countries, the amount of FDI from Thailand, China and Vietnam is growing very rapidly.
However, with economic boost and ever increasing investment, Lao government must closely monitor the impacts from all these rapid changes and hence formulate and implement the right policies. Lao should be closely working with its neighbor, such as China, Thailand and Myanmar to achieve a win-win situation with all these countries. This research focuses on FDI of Lao. Together with the GDP, FDI capital stock and productivity of China and Thailand, theoretical and empirical research will be carried out to analyze the effect of FDI on Lao, providing insights for Lao government to implement suitable policies.
The summary of each chapter:
Chapter1:This chapter clearly states the research topic, targets and meanings behind the research. With a well-defined framework of the research, all chapters of this thesis will be firmly adhered to the focal point of the research.
Chapter2:Through comprehensive literature review, we will consolidate any important theories regarding the impact of the economic development and integration on FDI in development countries. Then, the research on the impact of FDI on the economic development and employment of host countries will be summarized. Such summary can serve as the backbone of the whole research, providing guidance to all theoretical and empirical analysis afterwards.
Chapter3:This chapter will review the economic background, the development of FDI and investment environment of Laos. Such reviews can serve as the foundation for our later analysis of the interrelationship between FDI and Laos' economy. To start, we will summarize the background information of Lao, such as its history, geography, political situation, economy and culture. More understanding of Lao can facilitate the theoretical and empirical research thereafter. The chapter will be followed by the trend of FDI in Lao and the analysis of the development of FDI in Lao. At the same time, the impact of the policy of economic reform, such as law amendment, on the investment environment of Lao will be analyzed. Finally, as Laos' government has recently been using Special Economic Zone as the tool to attract more FDI. SWOT analysis will be carried out to analyze the Opportunities, Threats, Strength and Weakness. As a result, this research will suggest appropriate policies for the Lao government such that with reference to the experience of successful countries, Lao can utilize SEZ as the essential tool for economic transform and development.
Chapter4:After literature review and comprehending the important background information, like political, economic, cultural and investment development etc, of Lao, this chapter will analyze the impact of the economic development of neighboring countries and FDI on Lao. This chapter links all other chapters in this thesis together and is the focal point of this study. This chapter starts with the analysis of the impact of the economic development and integration of neighboring countries on Laos' economy. After know that the close economic relationship with its neighboring countries will boost the FDI development of Lao, we will then analyze the impact of FDI on Laos'economic growth, employment and environment. Lastly, this chapter will summarize how the economies of neighboring countries affect the long-term economic development of Lao through FDI.
Chapter5:Theoretical analysis ends and here comes the empirical research of the thesis. As the validity of any empirical research very much depends on the quality of data and the appropriate use of econometrics model, this chapter will introduce the statistical models that will be used in later chapters, ensuring the readers can have a clearer understanding of the empirical results.
Chapter6:With the statistical tools, empirical research will be carried out in Chapter6and7, analyzing the impact of FDI on Lao's economic development. It will be started with chapter6, analyzing how the interrelationship between the economies of Lao and its neighbors. Due to the limitation of the number of sample, we should choose the countries with most significant impact on Lao for our empirical analysis. As China and Thailand and the most important contributors to Laos' FDI, and the Lao government has recently been implementing policies to develop a closer economic relationship with China and Thailand, in this chapter, we decided to choose China and Thailand to be the representatives in our analysis of the impact of the economies of neighboring countries on Lao.
Firstly, VECM impulse response and variance decomposition will be used to analyze the interrelationship between GDP, FDI and productivity of Lao and Thai economy. Then, with the introduction of Lao's another neighbor, the dynamic relationship between the economies of Lao, Thailand and China will be analyzed.
Chapter7:This chapter serves as the analysis of the impact on Lao's economy. We will start this chapter by investigating the development and forecast of Lao FDI by Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model. Then, Structural Vector Error Correction Model will be used to analyze the impact of FDI on Lao's economic growth and productivity. Finally, accounting for the heteroskedasticity found in the data sample, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model will be used to analyze the interrelationship between FDI capital stock and Lao GDP.
Chapter8:In accordance with the theoretical and empirical analysis, we will propose appropriate policies for Lao government, utilizing the benefits from FDI introduction and minimizing the adverse impact from FDI.
Chapter9:This chapter concludes the whole thesis by replying to the questions proposed in chapter1.
虽然老挝于过去数十年一直是东南亚国家中发展最落后的国家之一,但经过二十多年的改革开放后,老挝逐步吸引更多外资,现正是东南亚国家中经济增长较快的地区之一。东南亚国家的经济增长成为全球经济增长的火车头后,区内各国透过税务优惠等措施加快与邻近国家进行更紧密的经贸合作政策。随着经济的蓬勃发展,区内贸易及投资等活动不断增多。老挝经济改革开放后,投资环境逐步改善,受惠于周边国家经济高速增长的动力,来自泰国、中国及越南等邻国的直接投资不断增长。
然而,面对国内急速发展及外来投资不断增多,老挝政府必须谨慎分析各种急速变化所带来的影响,从而制订合适的政策,与中国、泰国、缅甸等周边国家共同发展,达至双赢。作者以老挝FDI作为中心,辅以中国、泰国等邻国的GDP、FDI资本存量、生产力等进行宏观经济的理论及实证分析,为老挝政府未来的发展方向做出指引。
本研究各章节的具体内容如下：
第1章,本章节主要提出全文的研究内容、目标及意义,并为全文订定严谨的框架,清晰的研究框架对全文脉络非常重要,确保本研究各章节都紧紧扣上主题。
第2章,根据过往不同学者所做的分析研究,综述发展中国家的邻国经济发展及对FDI的影响,以及FDI对东道国经济增长及就业的影响,并从中找出过去不同研究的缺失,从而令本研究得到更清晰的研究方向和目标。
第3章,本章节将会以老挝的经济、FDI的发展及投资环境的分析为其后研究FDI对老挝经济的影响打好根基。本章以老挝的历史、地理、政治、经济及文化等背景的一个综合分析作为开始,了解老挝的独特国情能令其后的理论及实证分析更为有效。其后,老挝FDI的分析由FDI于老挝发展的趋势开始,透彻了解FDI于老挝的发展情况；同时,本文将分析老挝改革开放以来的种种政策及法律修改对投资环境的影响,并通过与邻国吸引FDI的经验做出比较,了解外商到老挝投资的印象。最后,老挝政府为吸引FDI而大力推动发展特别经济区(SEZ),本章将会利用SWOT分析,研究老挝最近成立SEZ所遇到的机遇、威胁、优势及缺点,从而建议老挝政府做出针对性的政策,并参考邻国成功的经验,利用SEZ作为国家经济转型及发展的重要工具。
第4章,详细了解以往的研究分析,以及老挝政治、经济、文化、投资发展等重要背景后,本章将会分析邻国经济、外国企业FDI与老挝经济发展,此章贯穿全文,为本研究理论研究的重心。本章首先分析邻国经济发展对老挝经济的影响,了解到老挝及邻近区域日益频繁及紧密的经济活动会推动老挝的FDI发展后,本文将理论分析老挝FDI对老挝经济增长、就业及生态环境等多方面的影响,最后总结出邻国经济如何透过FDI影响老挝长远的经济发展。
第5章,文章开始理论研究结束,并正式进入实证研究部分,因实证研究的可靠度最主要取决于数据的质素及计量经济模型的运用。于是,本章节将会简单陈述后续章节将会用到的统计模型,让读者更了解统计结果的解释能力。
第6章,利用第五章所选取的各种合适的计量经济模型于第六至第七章做出实证研究,分析外国企业FDI对老挝经济发展的影响。第六章将会研究老挝与邻国经济互动的影响,因考虑到样本数量有限,只能选择对老挝经济影响最深远的国家作重点的实证分析,因中国及泰国对老挝总体FDI的影响举足轻重,而老挝政府的政策亦重点与泰国及中国发展更紧密的经贸关系,于是本文决定选择中国及泰国作代表分析邻国经济对老挝的影响。首先以VECM脉冲响应(Impulse response)及方差分解(Variance decomposition)分析老挝GDP,FDI及生产力与泰国宏观经济之间的动态影响。其后,本章将加入中国,同时研究老挝、泰国、中国之间经济的动态关系。
第7章,实证研究老挝FDI对其经济的影响,本章会首先以季节周期非线性自回归模型(Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model,SNAR)分析老挝FDI的发展特性,并将对此做出预测。其后,本文将以结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)分析FDI对老挝经济增长及生产力的影响。最后,由于经济变量异方差的特性,本文将会使用广义自回归条件异方差模型(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, GARCH)分析老挝FDI资本存量及GDP间的互动关系
第8章,通过理论及实证分析研究,本文已经对邻国经济、FD!对老挝经济影响有充分的了解,本章将会画龙点睛地将纯粹的学术研究转为具体的政策建议。
第9章,此章节总结全文,简洁有力地响应第一章所带出的问题,前后呼应。
The Asian Financial Crisis in1997and the Financial Tsunami in2008have significant adverse impacts on the financial systems all over the world. In2011, the annual GDP growth rate of OECD countries is only1.5%. The world economy has lost its driving force for sustainable growth. Therefore the Asian market is now becoming the focus of the economic development of the world. Global investors are now having their eyes on the rapid expanding Southeast Asian countries, such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.
Although Lao has been one of the least developed countries in the world, after over20years of economic reform, Lao is attracting more and more foreign investments and becomes one of the fastest growing economies in the whole. Countries in Southeast Asian have put much effort in collaborating with neighboring countries through policies like tax incentives etc. Due to the boosting economic development, there will be more and more trading and investment activities. After the economic reform, the investment environment in Lao has been improving. Benefiting from the boosting economies of neighboring countries, the amount of FDI from Thailand, China and Vietnam is growing very rapidly.
However, with economic boost and ever increasing investment, Lao government must closely monitor the impacts from all these rapid changes and hence formulate and implement the right policies. Lao should be closely working with its neighbor, such as China, Thailand and Myanmar to achieve a win-win situation with all these countries. This research focuses on FDI of Lao. Together with the GDP, FDI capital stock and productivity of China and Thailand, theoretical and empirical research will be carried out to analyze the effect of FDI on Lao, providing insights for Lao government to implement suitable policies.
The summary of each chapter:
Chapter1:This chapter clearly states the research topic, targets and meanings behind the research. With a well-defined framework of the research, all chapters of this thesis will be firmly adhered to the focal point of the research.
Chapter2:Through comprehensive literature review, we will consolidate any important theories regarding the impact of the economic development and integration on FDI in development countries. Then, the research on the impact of FDI on the economic development and employment of host countries will be summarized. Such summary can serve as the backbone of the whole research, providing guidance to all theoretical and empirical analysis afterwards.
Chapter3:This chapter will review the economic background, the development of FDI and investment environment of Laos. Such reviews can serve as the foundation for our later analysis of the interrelationship between FDI and Laos' economy. To start, we will summarize the background information of Lao, such as its history, geography, political situation, economy and culture. More understanding of Lao can facilitate the theoretical and empirical research thereafter. The chapter will be followed by the trend of FDI in Lao and the analysis of the development of FDI in Lao. At the same time, the impact of the policy of economic reform, such as law amendment, on the investment environment of Lao will be analyzed. Finally, as Laos' government has recently been using Special Economic Zone as the tool to attract more FDI. SWOT analysis will be carried out to analyze the Opportunities, Threats, Strength and Weakness. As a result, this research will suggest appropriate policies for the Lao government such that with reference to the experience of successful countries, Lao can utilize SEZ as the essential tool for economic transform and development.
Chapter4:After literature review and comprehending the important background information, like political, economic, cultural and investment development etc, of Lao, this chapter will analyze the impact of the economic development of neighboring countries and FDI on Lao. This chapter links all other chapters in this thesis together and is the focal point of this study. This chapter starts with the analysis of the impact of the economic development and integration of neighboring countries on Laos' economy. After know that the close economic relationship with its neighboring countries will boost the FDI development of Lao, we will then analyze the impact of FDI on Laos'economic growth, employment and environment. Lastly, this chapter will summarize how the economies of neighboring countries affect the long-term economic development of Lao through FDI.
Chapter5:Theoretical analysis ends and here comes the empirical research of the thesis. As the validity of any empirical research very much depends on the quality of data and the appropriate use of econometrics model, this chapter will introduce the statistical models that will be used in later chapters, ensuring the readers can have a clearer understanding of the empirical results.
Chapter6:With the statistical tools, empirical research will be carried out in Chapter6and7, analyzing the impact of FDI on Lao's economic development. It will be started with chapter6, analyzing how the interrelationship between the economies of Lao and its neighbors. Due to the limitation of the number of sample, we should choose the countries with most significant impact on Lao for our empirical analysis. As China and Thailand and the most important contributors to Laos' FDI, and the Lao government has recently been implementing policies to develop a closer economic relationship with China and Thailand, in this chapter, we decided to choose China and Thailand to be the representatives in our analysis of the impact of the economies of neighboring countries on Lao.
Firstly, VECM impulse response and variance decomposition will be used to analyze the interrelationship between GDP, FDI and productivity of Lao and Thai economy. Then, with the introduction of Lao's another neighbor, the dynamic relationship between the economies of Lao, Thailand and China will be analyzed.
Chapter7:This chapter serves as the analysis of the impact on Lao's economy. We will start this chapter by investigating the development and forecast of Lao FDI by Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model. Then, Structural Vector Error Correction Model will be used to analyze the impact of FDI on Lao's economic growth and productivity. Finally, accounting for the heteroskedasticity found in the data sample, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model will be used to analyze the interrelationship between FDI capital stock and Lao GDP.
Chapter8:In accordance with the theoretical and empirical analysis, we will propose appropriate policies for Lao government, utilizing the benefits from FDI introduction and minimizing the adverse impact from FDI.
Chapter9:This chapter concludes the whole thesis by replying to the questions proposed in chapter1.
引文
[1]包群、赖明勇：《FDI技术外溢的动态测算及原因解释》,《统计研究》2003年第6期。
[2]宋镇照：<寮国封闭到开放发展的政治经济：改革的挑战与前瞻),《海华与东南亚研究季刊》,第1卷第3期,2001年7月。
[3]王淑治译：<被遗忘的国度—寮国>,《贸易周刊》,第1504期,1992年10月。
[4]黄少君：<力争上游中的寮国>,《贸易周刊》,第1539期,1993年6月。
[5]谭荣邦：<走向全面革新的老挝),《科学社会主义》,第1期,2001年。
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