基于自主体建模的中国区域结构进化分析
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摘要
本文在明确决定中国空间分异的三次本性的地理要素的基础上,以进化经济地理学和自主体建模的思想和观点分析三次本性在区域发展与进化过程中的作用。首先我们对三次本性的相关地理要素组成和进化过程展开讨论。其次以三次本性为区域地理环境基础,通过人地关系为出发点,运用自主体建模的理论和技术对区域的人口及资本组织进化过程展开模拟。本文共分七章,第一章是关于地理学中的进化论思想及地理学中基于自主体建模思想的文献回顾,第二章和第三章接下来的章节将分别研究三次地理本性的特征分析、进化分析,第四至第六章将从三次地理本性下区域进化的自主体建模的模型分析,框架探索,系统构建,模拟分析的研究思路展开讨论和分析。第七章是总结与讨论。
在第一章中,从各种地理现象来看,持续的创新、地理上的不均衡发展,地理环境的多变性和不确定性已经成为了需要解释的常态。从地理学研究范畴来看,地理学对时空分异的研究已经从新古典主义的静态世界走向了动态世界,同时地理系统是一个典型的复杂巨系统。在讨论了地理信息科学和理论经济地理学相关研究模式的发展历程后,重点论述了地理学中的进化论思想和基于自主体建模的思想对解释和分析地理现象和地理系统所呈现出的时空动态性、复杂性所具有的科学优势和实际意义,并给出了现有的一些研究进展和案例。
在第二章中,我们分析了与人类三次产业革命(农业革命、工业革命和信息化革命)密切相关的地理因子,这些地理因子形成了三次地理本性,包括对农业文明时代具有重要地理意义的第一本性,在工业文明时代具有地理意义的的第一和第二本性,以及在信息化时代具有地理意义的第一、第二和第三本性。本章给出了具体相关模型的建模方法和数据基础,它们分别是第一本性中的海拔、地表崎岖度、水资源适宜度、农业生产潜力、人生气候指数；第二本性中的交通便捷性指数和财政指数；第三本性中的信息化指数、高校指数和人均受教育年限指数。
在第三章中,通过相应的统计和回归分析方法得到了三次本性的特征值和空间分布特征图。以进化论的思想讨论三次地理本性的进化过程,发现第一本性地理要素决定了中国农业的空间锁定——即秦岭-淮河线和长城一线：随着第二本性对区域经济发展作用不断提高,原有的锁定被打破,中心城市锁定了基本空间格局,区域出现了中心腹地结构；第三本性促进区域发生结构变异,枢纽网络结构被创生出来,结构发生了突变。另外三次本性在空间上存在着路径依赖的关系,第二本性往往最初受到第一本性的推动,而第三本性往往最初受到第一本性和第二本性的推动。从宏观上而言,中国在三次产业进化过程中,胡焕庸线并没有被打破,成为中国区域发展基本的锁定。
在第四章中,分别以三次地理本性作为地理环境基础,通过地理信息系统与自主体建模耦合的思想和技术构造三次地理本性下区域进化的自主体建模框架。第一本性下区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了工业化之前的农业文明时期的人口增长和迁移的时空进化过程；第一第二本性下区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了工业化时代各区域内资本组织的资金和人口的增长和转移所涌现出的资本组织产出时空进化过程；三个本性区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了信息化时代各区域内物资资本和人力资本的增长和转移所涌现出的资本组织产出时空进化过程。
第五章是地理学基于自主体模拟的理论框,研究的目标是开发具有二次开发能力的结合地理信息系统的自主体模拟平台。本章从面向自主体的软件工程出发,进行了系统需求分析,最终提出以结合地理信息系统空间Map Objects (MO)和面向自主体的软件工程思想架构起三次地理本性下的区域进化的自主体平台。从地理学研究的需求出发,分析设计了他们的属性和方法。为接下来的模拟分析提供软件基础。
第六章是系统模拟的分析结果。通过第一本性下人口的时空进化分析,可以发现长期来看胡焕庸线、秦岭-淮河线和长城一线构成了中国农业社会时期人口分布的空间锁定。二次鸦片战争之后,由于工业化进程的不断发展,第一本性环境逐渐地无法解释人口时空进化特征,新的地理要素开始起作用。通过在第一第二本性下人口和资本组织产出的时空进化分析发现交通因素作为新的进化基因,在区域进化中起着重要作用。第二本性主要驱动的是非农经济。通过三个本性下物质资本和人力资本的时空进化分析发现信息化产业的创新作用,带来了区域结构在进化中突破锁定,分化出新的区域格局。
第七章对论文进行了总结和讨论,展望下一步系统可深化、改进之处。
In this dissertation, on the basis of three natures which determine Chinese spatial heterogeneity, further analysis about the role of three natures on the regional development and evolution will be discussed in the point of view of evolutionary economic geography and agent-based modeling. Firstly, we will discuss the geographic features and the evolutionary process of three natures. Secondly, from the perspective of human-environment interactions, three natures will be considered as the bascial regional geographic environment. The theory and technology of agent-based modeling will be used to model the evolutionary process of the population and capital organization.The dissertation consists of seven chapters. The first chapter is about the overview of theory of geographical evolution and agent-based simulation in geography.The second and third chapter will study the characteristics and the evolutionary of three natures.From the fouth chapter to the sixth chapter, the theoretical framework, system analysis, simulation analysis of the agent-based modeling will be discussed. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion.
In the first chapter, the geographical phenomenons such as continuous innovation, uneven geographical development, variability and uncertainty of the environment have become the key issues which should be discussed. From the scope of geography, the study of the spatial and temporal variation has been from new classical static world to a dynamic world.at the same time, geographic system a typical complex giant one.
In this chapter, based on the discussion of the theorical development process about geography information science and economic geography. The thought of geographical evolution theory and agent-based modeling will be mainly discussed to explain the spatial and temporal dynamics and complexity of geographical systems. And some research progress and the cases will be given in this chapter.
In the second chapter, we mainly analyze the geographical factors which are closely related to the three industrial revolutions in the history of mainkind (the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and the information revolution).These geographic factors form three natures, the first nature plays an important role on the era of agriculture cavilation, the first and the second nature are meaningful for industrial cavilation, and three natures will have a great impact on the era of information revolution.Modeling method and data bases will be given in the chapter, Elevation, surface rough-fitness, water resources index, agricultural potential index,life climate index will consist of the first nature. Traffic convenience and financial index will consist of the second nature. Information index, college index and average education index will consist of the third nature.
In the third chapter, by appropriate statistics and regression analysis, we get the spatial distribution of characteristic value and characteristic figure are of three natures. The first nature which determines the spatial lock of Chinese agriculture-----the Line of Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River and the Great Wall plays the leading role on the first industrial revolution (Agricultural revolution), When times transferred from the agricultural society to industrial society, the second nature which is composed of transportation and infrastructure increasingly contribute to the regional economic development. The original spatial lock was broken. The central cities locked the basic spatial structure. Center-Hinterland structure can be found in the region. The third nature promotes regional structural variation.The structure of Hub-Network is created. The path dependence of three natures can be observed significantly, which means the second nature is initially driven by the first nature, and the third nature is initially driven by the first natural and the second nature. In the process of regional evolution, Hu-Huanyong line which is a famous geographical boundary in China has not been broken. It becomes the basic lock of regional development in China.
In the fourth chapter, three natures will be used as the geographical basis; the agent-based modeling framework of regional evolutionary will be developed with the technology of GIS and Agent. The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population growth and migration in the period of pre-industrial agricultural civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population migration and capital transfer in the period of industrial civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and the second nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as human capital and material capital transfer in the period of information civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and three nature environment.
The fifth chapter aims to make analysis on the software platform of geographical agent-based simulation environment derived from the theoretical framework proposed in the fourth chapter. By discussing theories of agent-oriented software engineering, the demand analysis of the system is carried out from the view of combining Map Objects (MO) and Agent technology to structure the platform regional evolution in three nature environment. From the need of geography research, properties and methods of agents will be discussed.The result will be the basement for the following analysis.
The sixth chapter is the analysis results of system simulation.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population in the first nature environment, we can find that Hu-Huanyong line, Qinling Mountains-Huaihe line and the the Great Wall are the spatial lockin the long term for Chinese agriculture society. After the two Opium War, due to the development of industrialization, the first nature cannot explain space-time evolution characteristics of population.New geographical factors are playing the role.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population and capital organization in the first and second nature environment, we can find that traffic factor, as a new evolution of gene, will play an important role in regional evolution.Second nature mainly drive the non-agricultural economy.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of material capital and human capital in three natures environment. We can find the innovation effect of information industry, which bring the lock break of regional structure. New pattern of regional differentiation will appear.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion of the dissertation.
在第一章中,从各种地理现象来看,持续的创新、地理上的不均衡发展,地理环境的多变性和不确定性已经成为了需要解释的常态。从地理学研究范畴来看,地理学对时空分异的研究已经从新古典主义的静态世界走向了动态世界,同时地理系统是一个典型的复杂巨系统。在讨论了地理信息科学和理论经济地理学相关研究模式的发展历程后,重点论述了地理学中的进化论思想和基于自主体建模的思想对解释和分析地理现象和地理系统所呈现出的时空动态性、复杂性所具有的科学优势和实际意义,并给出了现有的一些研究进展和案例。
在第二章中,我们分析了与人类三次产业革命(农业革命、工业革命和信息化革命)密切相关的地理因子,这些地理因子形成了三次地理本性,包括对农业文明时代具有重要地理意义的第一本性,在工业文明时代具有地理意义的的第一和第二本性,以及在信息化时代具有地理意义的第一、第二和第三本性。本章给出了具体相关模型的建模方法和数据基础,它们分别是第一本性中的海拔、地表崎岖度、水资源适宜度、农业生产潜力、人生气候指数；第二本性中的交通便捷性指数和财政指数；第三本性中的信息化指数、高校指数和人均受教育年限指数。
在第三章中,通过相应的统计和回归分析方法得到了三次本性的特征值和空间分布特征图。以进化论的思想讨论三次地理本性的进化过程,发现第一本性地理要素决定了中国农业的空间锁定——即秦岭-淮河线和长城一线：随着第二本性对区域经济发展作用不断提高,原有的锁定被打破,中心城市锁定了基本空间格局,区域出现了中心腹地结构；第三本性促进区域发生结构变异,枢纽网络结构被创生出来,结构发生了突变。另外三次本性在空间上存在着路径依赖的关系,第二本性往往最初受到第一本性的推动,而第三本性往往最初受到第一本性和第二本性的推动。从宏观上而言,中国在三次产业进化过程中,胡焕庸线并没有被打破,成为中国区域发展基本的锁定。
在第四章中,分别以三次地理本性作为地理环境基础,通过地理信息系统与自主体建模耦合的思想和技术构造三次地理本性下区域进化的自主体建模框架。第一本性下区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了工业化之前的农业文明时期的人口增长和迁移的时空进化过程；第一第二本性下区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了工业化时代各区域内资本组织的资金和人口的增长和转移所涌现出的资本组织产出时空进化过程；三个本性区域进化的自主体建模主要模拟了信息化时代各区域内物资资本和人力资本的增长和转移所涌现出的资本组织产出时空进化过程。
第五章是地理学基于自主体模拟的理论框,研究的目标是开发具有二次开发能力的结合地理信息系统的自主体模拟平台。本章从面向自主体的软件工程出发,进行了系统需求分析,最终提出以结合地理信息系统空间Map Objects (MO)和面向自主体的软件工程思想架构起三次地理本性下的区域进化的自主体平台。从地理学研究的需求出发,分析设计了他们的属性和方法。为接下来的模拟分析提供软件基础。
第六章是系统模拟的分析结果。通过第一本性下人口的时空进化分析,可以发现长期来看胡焕庸线、秦岭-淮河线和长城一线构成了中国农业社会时期人口分布的空间锁定。二次鸦片战争之后,由于工业化进程的不断发展,第一本性环境逐渐地无法解释人口时空进化特征,新的地理要素开始起作用。通过在第一第二本性下人口和资本组织产出的时空进化分析发现交通因素作为新的进化基因,在区域进化中起着重要作用。第二本性主要驱动的是非农经济。通过三个本性下物质资本和人力资本的时空进化分析发现信息化产业的创新作用,带来了区域结构在进化中突破锁定,分化出新的区域格局。
第七章对论文进行了总结和讨论,展望下一步系统可深化、改进之处。
In this dissertation, on the basis of three natures which determine Chinese spatial heterogeneity, further analysis about the role of three natures on the regional development and evolution will be discussed in the point of view of evolutionary economic geography and agent-based modeling. Firstly, we will discuss the geographic features and the evolutionary process of three natures. Secondly, from the perspective of human-environment interactions, three natures will be considered as the bascial regional geographic environment. The theory and technology of agent-based modeling will be used to model the evolutionary process of the population and capital organization.The dissertation consists of seven chapters. The first chapter is about the overview of theory of geographical evolution and agent-based simulation in geography.The second and third chapter will study the characteristics and the evolutionary of three natures.From the fouth chapter to the sixth chapter, the theoretical framework, system analysis, simulation analysis of the agent-based modeling will be discussed. The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion.
In the first chapter, the geographical phenomenons such as continuous innovation, uneven geographical development, variability and uncertainty of the environment have become the key issues which should be discussed. From the scope of geography, the study of the spatial and temporal variation has been from new classical static world to a dynamic world.at the same time, geographic system a typical complex giant one.
In this chapter, based on the discussion of the theorical development process about geography information science and economic geography. The thought of geographical evolution theory and agent-based modeling will be mainly discussed to explain the spatial and temporal dynamics and complexity of geographical systems. And some research progress and the cases will be given in this chapter.
In the second chapter, we mainly analyze the geographical factors which are closely related to the three industrial revolutions in the history of mainkind (the agricultural revolution, the industrial revolution and the information revolution).These geographic factors form three natures, the first nature plays an important role on the era of agriculture cavilation, the first and the second nature are meaningful for industrial cavilation, and three natures will have a great impact on the era of information revolution.Modeling method and data bases will be given in the chapter, Elevation, surface rough-fitness, water resources index, agricultural potential index,life climate index will consist of the first nature. Traffic convenience and financial index will consist of the second nature. Information index, college index and average education index will consist of the third nature.
In the third chapter, by appropriate statistics and regression analysis, we get the spatial distribution of characteristic value and characteristic figure are of three natures. The first nature which determines the spatial lock of Chinese agriculture-----the Line of Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River and the Great Wall plays the leading role on the first industrial revolution (Agricultural revolution), When times transferred from the agricultural society to industrial society, the second nature which is composed of transportation and infrastructure increasingly contribute to the regional economic development. The original spatial lock was broken. The central cities locked the basic spatial structure. Center-Hinterland structure can be found in the region. The third nature promotes regional structural variation.The structure of Hub-Network is created. The path dependence of three natures can be observed significantly, which means the second nature is initially driven by the first nature, and the third nature is initially driven by the first natural and the second nature. In the process of regional evolution, Hu-Huanyong line which is a famous geographical boundary in China has not been broken. It becomes the basic lock of regional development in China.
In the fourth chapter, three natures will be used as the geographical basis; the agent-based modeling framework of regional evolutionary will be developed with the technology of GIS and Agent. The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population growth and migration in the period of pre-industrial agricultural civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as population migration and capital transfer in the period of industrial civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and the second nature environment.The spatio-temporal evolutionary process such as human capital and material capital transfer in the period of information civilization will be modeled by the agent-based system of regional evolutionary in the first and three nature environment.
The fifth chapter aims to make analysis on the software platform of geographical agent-based simulation environment derived from the theoretical framework proposed in the fourth chapter. By discussing theories of agent-oriented software engineering, the demand analysis of the system is carried out from the view of combining Map Objects (MO) and Agent technology to structure the platform regional evolution in three nature environment. From the need of geography research, properties and methods of agents will be discussed.The result will be the basement for the following analysis.
The sixth chapter is the analysis results of system simulation.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population in the first nature environment, we can find that Hu-Huanyong line, Qinling Mountains-Huaihe line and the the Great Wall are the spatial lockin the long term for Chinese agriculture society. After the two Opium War, due to the development of industrialization, the first nature cannot explain space-time evolution characteristics of population.New geographical factors are playing the role.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of population and capital organization in the first and second nature environment, we can find that traffic factor, as a new evolution of gene, will play an important role in regional evolution.Second nature mainly drive the non-agricultural economy.Through spatio-temporal evolution analysis of material capital and human capital in three natures environment. We can find the innovation effect of information industry, which bring the lock break of regional structure. New pattern of regional differentiation will appear.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and discussion of the dissertation.
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