气候变化对嫩江流域湿地水文水资源的影响及适应对策
|
摘要
嫩江流域是我国重要的粮食生产基地和湿地集中分布地区之一。在气候变化和人类活动的共同作用下，嫩江流域湿地水循环过程发生了深刻变化，造成水资源短缺、湿地萎缩、功能退化等一系列突出的水与生态环境问题。本文通过分析气候变化和人类活动对流域湿地水文水资源的影响，旨在了解过去历史阶段气候变化影响下嫩江流域水文过程响应及其对湿地景观格局演变的影响机制，并通过对未来气候变化情景下湿地生态需水量和社会经济需水量的预测，提出应对气候变化的流域湿地水资源管理适应性措施，对嫩江流域湿地水资源管理与合理调配具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文共取得以下几个方面主要成果：
（1）过去55年嫩江流域气象水文变化特征及规律
利用ArcGIS空间分析软件，对嫩江流域内及周边共39个国家气象台站的气温、降水、蒸散发进行泰森多边形插值发现，过去55年嫩江全流域增温显著（P<0.05），降水格局发生改变，在上、中、下游其降水分别出现增加、不变和减少的趋势；对流域内5个干流站和22个支流站的月径流资料进行统计分析发现，径流年内分配极不均匀，汛期集中在夏、秋两季；径流年际变化明显，丰、枯水期径流量相差悬殊；对富拉尔基水文站洪峰资料运用皮尔逊Ш型频率曲线方法分析发现，流域百年一遇设计洪峰值Q=12647m~31%/s，洪水多发于7～8月份，以雨洪型为主。
（2）甄别气候变化和人类活动对流域径流变化影响的贡献率
将水量平衡法与水文敏感性分析方法相结合，分析气候变化和人类活动对嫩江流域径流变化的贡献率，结果表明：1975～2010年，受气候变化影响最大的是上游地区，达到80.3%，其次为中游地区为72.3%，下游地区最小为69.6%。此外，人类活动对嫩江流域的影响呈逐年增强的趋势。
（3）嫩江流域湿地景观格局变化及其水文驱动机制分析
利用嫩江流域1970s、1980s、1990s、2000s四期湿地遥感资料以及土地利用资料对流域湿地景观动态变化及其影响湿地景观动态变化的因素进行分析。分析结果表明：嫩江流域自然湿地面积减少显著，沼泽湿地景观破碎化趋势呈加重趋势。影响流域湿地景观动态变化的因素很多，其中，降水波动和径流减少是其面积减少的重要原因，沼泽湿地面积变化与流域径流系数变化极显著正相关，pearson相关系数为0.90。除此之外，人类活动特别是土地利用/土地覆被的变化对湿地景观变化具有重要的影响，耕地面积的大幅度增加、草地和林地面积的减少都会对湿地水资源供给造成影响，从而造成湿地面积萎缩，景观特征发生变化。此外，极端气候事件洪水的发生对流域洪泛区湿地具有一定的水资源补给作用，对恢复洪泛区湿地具有重要的资源价值。
（4）未来气候变化情景下湿地生态需水量预测
通过对植物需水量、土壤需水量和野生生物栖息地需水量的计算，得出嫩江流域不同降水频率下湿地适宜生态需水量的值。结果表明：枯水年（75%降水频率下）、平水年（50%降水频率下）和丰水年（25%降水频率下），嫩江流域湿地适宜生态需水量分别为169.343亿m~3，118.696亿m~3和70.284亿m~3。选取CMIP5全球气候模式，对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种排放情景下湿地生态需水量进行预测得出，到2100年嫩江流域湿地生态需水量分别达到121.223亿m~3，147.337亿m~3和132.659亿m~3。
（5）应对气候变化的嫩江流域湿地水资源适应性管理对策
最后，通过对嫩江流域水资源现状及水资源开发利用状况的分析，提出适应未来气候变化的水资源保护策略、重点湿地优先保护、重点湿地常态补水、重视洪水资源利用、建立和完善湿地生态环境监测体系、加强湿地保护法律法规建设等措施对流域湿地水资源进行管理。
The Nenjiang River basin is an important grain-production region withabundant wetlands in northeast China. Climate change and anthropogenicactivities have dramatically altered the spatial and temporal distribution ofregional stream discharge and water environment, which poses a serious threatto wetland ecosystems and water resources. In this paper, we analyzed theeffects of climate change and human activities on the wetland hydrology andwater resources, calculated wetland ecological water requirements, and putforward the schemes of water resources rational allocation, which wouldcontribute to the rationally and scientifically of hydrological management ofwater resources.
(1) Meteorological and hydrological charateristics of the Nenjiang Rvierbasin over the past55years
Based on the analysis of daily data of39meteorological stations in andaround the Nenjaing River basin, the temperature, precipitation andevapotranspiration were analyzed by ArcGIS software. The results showed thattemperature had an obvious increase trend in the past55years, the precipitationpattern also changed; the annual distribution of runoff showed a very uneventrend, which concentrated in the summer and autumn; the inter annual variationof runoff was obvious, which differed greatly between the high flow period anddrought period. The flood peak data was analyzed by the Pearson Ш frequencycurve method, we found that the hundred-year flood peak value wasQ12647m~31%=/s，and most of these flood take place in July to August, whichmainly based on rainwater type.
(2) Evaluating the contribution of climate change and human activities onrunoff
The contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff wasanalyzed by the water balance method and the hydrological sensitivity analysismethod. The contribution of climate change to runoff was80.3%,72.3%and69.6%in upstream basin, midstream basin and downstream basin, respectively.Moreover, the impact of human activities on the Nenjiang River basin wasenhanced with the time.
(3) Landscape pattern change and hydrological driving mechanism in thewetlands of Nenjiang River basin
The wetland landscape dynamics and its influencing factors were analyzedusing four wetland remote sensing data in1970s,1980s,1990s and2000s ofNenjiang River basin. The results showed that natural wetland area decreasedsignificantly, and swamp landscape fragmentation trend tended to be worse.There were many factors influencing the wetland landscape dynamics, but theprecipitation fluctuation and decrease of runoff were the most important reasons,the marsh area and runoff coefficient had a very significant positive correlation,the Pearson correlation coefficient was0.90. In addition, human activities,especially the land use/land cover change had important implications on wetlandlandscape, the substantial increase of farm land, reduction of grassland andwoodland will affect the water supply of wetland, resulting in shrinking of thewetland area and landscape feature changes. In addition, extreme weather eventwill play an important role on supplying water resources and restoringfloodplain wetland.
(4) Wetland ecological water demand prediction in the future climate changescenarios
The suitable wetland ecological water demand was computed by calculatingthe water demand of vegetation, soil and wildlife habitat. The results showed that the suitable wetland ecological water demands in the Nenjiang Rvier basinwere16.9343billion m~3,11.8696billion m~3and7.0284billion m~3, respectively.Based on the CMIP5Global Climatic Model, the wetland ecological waterdemands in the future were predicted under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5and RCP8.5emission scenarios, the results were12.1223billion m~3，14.7337billion m~3and13.2659billion m~3.
(5) Adaptation management for addressing climate change in the wetlandsof Nenjiang River basin
Finally, through the analysis of situation of water resources, its developmentand utilization, we proposed engineering measures such as wetland conservationpriority, normal replenishment to the important wetlands, to manage the basinwetland water resources.
（1）过去55年嫩江流域气象水文变化特征及规律
利用ArcGIS空间分析软件，对嫩江流域内及周边共39个国家气象台站的气温、降水、蒸散发进行泰森多边形插值发现，过去55年嫩江全流域增温显著（P<0.05），降水格局发生改变，在上、中、下游其降水分别出现增加、不变和减少的趋势；对流域内5个干流站和22个支流站的月径流资料进行统计分析发现，径流年内分配极不均匀，汛期集中在夏、秋两季；径流年际变化明显，丰、枯水期径流量相差悬殊；对富拉尔基水文站洪峰资料运用皮尔逊Ш型频率曲线方法分析发现，流域百年一遇设计洪峰值Q=12647m~31%/s，洪水多发于7～8月份，以雨洪型为主。
（2）甄别气候变化和人类活动对流域径流变化影响的贡献率
将水量平衡法与水文敏感性分析方法相结合，分析气候变化和人类活动对嫩江流域径流变化的贡献率，结果表明：1975～2010年，受气候变化影响最大的是上游地区，达到80.3%，其次为中游地区为72.3%，下游地区最小为69.6%。此外，人类活动对嫩江流域的影响呈逐年增强的趋势。
（3）嫩江流域湿地景观格局变化及其水文驱动机制分析
利用嫩江流域1970s、1980s、1990s、2000s四期湿地遥感资料以及土地利用资料对流域湿地景观动态变化及其影响湿地景观动态变化的因素进行分析。分析结果表明：嫩江流域自然湿地面积减少显著，沼泽湿地景观破碎化趋势呈加重趋势。影响流域湿地景观动态变化的因素很多，其中，降水波动和径流减少是其面积减少的重要原因，沼泽湿地面积变化与流域径流系数变化极显著正相关，pearson相关系数为0.90。除此之外，人类活动特别是土地利用/土地覆被的变化对湿地景观变化具有重要的影响，耕地面积的大幅度增加、草地和林地面积的减少都会对湿地水资源供给造成影响，从而造成湿地面积萎缩，景观特征发生变化。此外，极端气候事件洪水的发生对流域洪泛区湿地具有一定的水资源补给作用，对恢复洪泛区湿地具有重要的资源价值。
（4）未来气候变化情景下湿地生态需水量预测
通过对植物需水量、土壤需水量和野生生物栖息地需水量的计算，得出嫩江流域不同降水频率下湿地适宜生态需水量的值。结果表明：枯水年（75%降水频率下）、平水年（50%降水频率下）和丰水年（25%降水频率下），嫩江流域湿地适宜生态需水量分别为169.343亿m~3，118.696亿m~3和70.284亿m~3。选取CMIP5全球气候模式，对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种排放情景下湿地生态需水量进行预测得出，到2100年嫩江流域湿地生态需水量分别达到121.223亿m~3，147.337亿m~3和132.659亿m~3。
（5）应对气候变化的嫩江流域湿地水资源适应性管理对策
最后，通过对嫩江流域水资源现状及水资源开发利用状况的分析，提出适应未来气候变化的水资源保护策略、重点湿地优先保护、重点湿地常态补水、重视洪水资源利用、建立和完善湿地生态环境监测体系、加强湿地保护法律法规建设等措施对流域湿地水资源进行管理。
The Nenjiang River basin is an important grain-production region withabundant wetlands in northeast China. Climate change and anthropogenicactivities have dramatically altered the spatial and temporal distribution ofregional stream discharge and water environment, which poses a serious threatto wetland ecosystems and water resources. In this paper, we analyzed theeffects of climate change and human activities on the wetland hydrology andwater resources, calculated wetland ecological water requirements, and putforward the schemes of water resources rational allocation, which wouldcontribute to the rationally and scientifically of hydrological management ofwater resources.
(1) Meteorological and hydrological charateristics of the Nenjiang Rvierbasin over the past55years
Based on the analysis of daily data of39meteorological stations in andaround the Nenjaing River basin, the temperature, precipitation andevapotranspiration were analyzed by ArcGIS software. The results showed thattemperature had an obvious increase trend in the past55years, the precipitationpattern also changed; the annual distribution of runoff showed a very uneventrend, which concentrated in the summer and autumn; the inter annual variationof runoff was obvious, which differed greatly between the high flow period anddrought period. The flood peak data was analyzed by the Pearson Ш frequencycurve method, we found that the hundred-year flood peak value wasQ12647m~31%=/s，and most of these flood take place in July to August, whichmainly based on rainwater type.
(2) Evaluating the contribution of climate change and human activities onrunoff
The contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff wasanalyzed by the water balance method and the hydrological sensitivity analysismethod. The contribution of climate change to runoff was80.3%,72.3%and69.6%in upstream basin, midstream basin and downstream basin, respectively.Moreover, the impact of human activities on the Nenjiang River basin wasenhanced with the time.
(3) Landscape pattern change and hydrological driving mechanism in thewetlands of Nenjiang River basin
The wetland landscape dynamics and its influencing factors were analyzedusing four wetland remote sensing data in1970s,1980s,1990s and2000s ofNenjiang River basin. The results showed that natural wetland area decreasedsignificantly, and swamp landscape fragmentation trend tended to be worse.There were many factors influencing the wetland landscape dynamics, but theprecipitation fluctuation and decrease of runoff were the most important reasons,the marsh area and runoff coefficient had a very significant positive correlation,the Pearson correlation coefficient was0.90. In addition, human activities,especially the land use/land cover change had important implications on wetlandlandscape, the substantial increase of farm land, reduction of grassland andwoodland will affect the water supply of wetland, resulting in shrinking of thewetland area and landscape feature changes. In addition, extreme weather eventwill play an important role on supplying water resources and restoringfloodplain wetland.
(4) Wetland ecological water demand prediction in the future climate changescenarios
The suitable wetland ecological water demand was computed by calculatingthe water demand of vegetation, soil and wildlife habitat. The results showed that the suitable wetland ecological water demands in the Nenjiang Rvier basinwere16.9343billion m~3,11.8696billion m~3and7.0284billion m~3, respectively.Based on the CMIP5Global Climatic Model, the wetland ecological waterdemands in the future were predicted under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5and RCP8.5emission scenarios, the results were12.1223billion m~3，14.7337billion m~3and13.2659billion m~3.
(5) Adaptation management for addressing climate change in the wetlandsof Nenjiang River basin
Finally, through the analysis of situation of water resources, its developmentand utilization, we proposed engineering measures such as wetland conservationpriority, normal replenishment to the important wetlands, to manage the basinwetland water resources.
引文
Acreman M, Blake J, Booker D, et al. A simple framework for evaluating regional wetland ecohydrologicalresponse to climate change with case studies from Great Britain [J]. Ecohydrology,2009,2(1):1-17.
Adamus PR. Choices in monitoring wetlands [A]. In: Daminel H, Mckenzie D, Hyatt E, et al. Ecologicalindicators [C]. Barking: Elsevier Science Publishers Ltd,1992,571-592.
Aronson MFJ, Galatowitsch S. Long-term vegetation development of restored prairie pothole wetlands [J].Wetlands,2008,28(4):883-895.
Baumann RH, Turner RE. Direct impacts of outer continental shelf activities on wetland loss in the centralGulf of Mexico. Environmental Geology and Water Resources,1990,15:189-198.
Beniston M. Climatic Chanage: implications for the hydrological cycle and for water management [M].Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2002.
Bergstr m S, Carlsson B, Gardelin M et al. Climate change impacts on the runoff in Sweden-assessmentsby global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling [J]. Climate Rsesearch,16:101-112.
Brock MA, Casanova MT. Plant life at the edges of wetlands, ecological responses to wetting and dryingpatterns//Klomp N, Lunt I, Eds. Frontiers in Ecology: Building the Links. Oxford: Elsevier Science,1997:181-192.
Brock T C M, Vierssan W V. Climatic change and hydrophtedominated communities in inland wetlandecosystem [J]. Wetland Ecology and Management, l992,2:37-49.
Burkett V, Kusler J. Climate Change: potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States,Virginia [J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
Burkett V, Kusler J. Climate Change: potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States,Virginia [J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
Casanova MT, Brock MA. How to depth, duration and frequency of flooding influence the establishment ofwetland plant communities [J]. Plant Ecology,2000,147:237-250.
Castelein S, Otte A. Conflict and Cooperation related to International Water Resources: HistoricalPerspectives [A]. Selected papers of the international water history association’s conference on therole of water in history and development Bergen, Norway10-12August2001. IHPVI. TechnicalDocuments in Hydrology (TDH)(SC-2002/WS/53). No.62[C]. Paris: UNESCO,2002,198-206.
Charman D J, Blundell A, Chiverrell R C, et al. Compilation of non-annually resolved Holocene proxyclimate records: Stacked Holovene peatland palaeo-water table reconstructions from northern Britain[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2006,25:336-350.
Clément B, Aidoud A. Hypotheses of changes in palustrian plant communities under climate change.Spcification of model for European wetland habitats, Report of the Integrated Project to evaluate theimpacts of global change on European freshwater Ecosystems [R]. European Commission Sixthframework Programme, deliverable51, WP1, task4.2,2007.
Dahl TE. Wetland losses in the United States1970s to1980s [M]. United Stated Department of Interior,Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington DC mimeo report,1990.
Dimitriou E, Zacharias I. Micro-climate and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Hydroecological Regime of aLarge Freshwater Body. Advances in Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering [C].2005,4A-4B:822-826.
Dooge JCI, Bruen M, Parmentier B. A simple model for estimating the sensitivity of runoff to long-termchanges in precipitation without a change in vegetation [J]. Advances in Water Resources,1999,23:153-163.
Duvail S, Hamerlynck O. Mitigation of negative ecological and socio-economic impacts of the Diama damon the Senegal River Delta wetland (Mauritania), using a model based decision support system.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2003,7(1):133-146.
Eamus D, Hatton T, Cook P, et al. Ecohydrology: Vegetation Function [M]. Water and ResourceManagement. Melbounre: CSIRO Publishing,2006.
European Commission. Vulnerability and risk mapping for the protection of carbonate aquifers: final reportCOST action620[R]. Brussels: EC,2004.
Gagliano S, Meyer-Arendt K, Wicher K. Land loss in the Mississippi River Deltaic plain [J]. Gulf CoastAssociation of Geological Societies,1981,31:295-300.
Gary WB, John DP. Optimizing habitat fragmentation and afrolandscape perspective [J]. Landscape andurban planning,1994,28(1):99-105.
Gleick PH. The changing water paradigm: A look at21century water resource development [J].WaterInternational,2000,25:127-138.
Gleick PH. The World’s Water2000-2001: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources [M]. WashingtonDC: Island Press.1998a.
Gleick PH. Water in Crisis: paths to sustainable water use [J]. Ecological Application,1998b,8:571-579.
Hattermann F F, V Krysanova, Hesse C. Modelling wetland processes in regional applications [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,2008,53(5):1001-1012.
Hirsch RM, Helsel DR, Cohn TA, Gilroy EJ.1993. Statistical analysis of hydrologic data. In: Handbook ofHydrology (ed. By DR Maidment), Ch.17,17.11-17.37. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.
Hughes DA. Providing hydrological information and data analysis tools for the determination of ecologicalinstream flow requirements for South African rivers [J]. Journal of Hydrology,2001,241:140-151.
Hughes P D M, Lomas-Clarke S H, Schulz J, et al. The declining quality of late-Holocene ombrotrophiccommunities and the loss of Sphagnum austinii (Sull. Ex Aust.) on raised bogs in Wales[J]. TheHolocene,2010,17:613-625.
IPCC. Climate Change2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D,Manning M,Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL(eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge,New York,2007,996.
Jeffrey MK, Robert HG. Landscape ecological analysis-issues and applications [M]. New York:Spring-Yerlag,1997.
Jenson J Q, Cowen D. Principles of change detection using digital remote sensor data integration of GISand remote sensing [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1997,1-25.
Jones RN, Chiew FHS, Boughtom WC, et al. Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climatechange using selected hydrological models [J]. Advances in Water Resources,2006,29:1419-1429.
Kamock A, Banaszuk P. Modeling hydrological changes of fluviogenous wetland: a landscape-scale GISapproach [J]. Publications of the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences,2008:18-26.
Kiely G, Albertson JD, Parlange, M.B. Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on thewest coast of Ireland [J]. Journal of Hydrology,1998,207(3-4):270-279.
Kingsford RT, Thomas RF. Use of satellite image analysis to track wetland loss on the MurrumbidgeeRiver floodplain in arid Australia,1975-1998. Water Science and Technology,2002,45(11):45-53.
Koster RD, Suarez MJ. A simple framework for examing the interannual variability of land surfacemoisture fluxes [J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12:1911-1917.
Koster RD, Suarez MJ. A simple framework for examing the interannual variability of land surfacemoisture fluxes [J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12:1911-1917.
Kundzewiez ZW, Robson AJ. Change detection in hydrological records a review of the methodology [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2004,49(1):7-19.
Lahmer W, Pfutnner B, Becher A. Assessment of land use and climate chang impacts on the mesoscale [J].Phys. Chem. Earth (B),2001,26(7-8):565-575.
Lahmer W. Pfuetnner B, Becher A. Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the mesoscale[J]. Phys Chem Earth (B),200l,26(7-8):565-575.
Li H, Reynolds JF. On definition and quantification of heterogeneity [J]. Oikos,1995,73:280-284.
LI LJ, Zhang H, Wang H, Wang J, et al. Assessing the impact of climate change and human activities onstreamflow from the Wuding River basin in China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2007,21:3485-3491.
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, et al. An emission pathway for stabilization at6Wm-2radiativeforcing [J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:59-76.
Mawhinney W. Restoring biodiversity in the Gwydir wetlands through environmental flows [J]. WaterScience and Technology,2003,48:73-81.
Mayer TD, Thomasson R. Fall water requirements for seasonal diked wetlands at Lower Klamath NationalWildlife Refuge [J]. Wetlands,2004,24:92-103.
Michael R M, John Middleton. A Markow model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara Region,Ontario, Canada [J]. Landscape Ecology,1994,9(2):151-157.
Middleton B A. The flood pulse concept in wetland restoration. In: Middleton B A (ed.), Flood Pulsing inWetlands: Restoring the Natural Hydrological Balance [J]. New York: John Wiley and Sons,2002.1-10.
Milly PCD, Dunne KA. Macro-scale water fluxes2. Water and energy supply control of their inter-annualvariability [J]. Water Resources Research,2002,38(10):1206.
Mitsch W J, Gosselink J G. Wetlands,3rd Ed. John Wiley&Sons, New York,2000,920.
Newbold C, Mountford J O. Water Level Requirements of Wetland Plants and Animals. Peterborough:English Nature,1997.
Nielsen D L, Brock M A. Modified water regime and salinity as a consequence of climate change:prospects for wetlands of Southern Australia [J]. Climatic Change,2009,95(3-4):523-533.
Pettitt, AN. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem [J]. Applied Statistics,1979,28(2):126-135.
Petts G E. Water allocation to protect river ecosystem [J]. Regulated Rivers: Research and Management,1996,12:353-365.
Piahi K, Rao S, Krey V, et al. RCP8.5: a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emission [J].Climatci Change,2011,109:33-57.
Piao Shi-long, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, et al. Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impactthan rising CO2on global river runoff trends [J]. PNAS,2007,39:15242-15247.
Poianik A. Climate change and Northern Prairie wetlands: simulations of long-term dynamics [J].Limnology of Oceanography,1996,41(5):871-881.
Powell SJ, Letcher RA, Croke BFW. Modeling floodplain inundation for environmental flows: Gwydirwetlands [J].Australia. Ecological Modeling,2008,211:350-362.
Richard G Allen, Luis S Pereira, Dirk Raes. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop waterrequirements [R]. ROME: FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper56,1998.
Roberts J, Young B, Marston F. Estimating the Water Requirements for Plants of Floodplain Wetlands：AGuide [J]. Australia: Land and Water Resources Research&Development Corporation,2000.
Robertson H A, James K R. Determining the water requirement for the rehabilitation of wetland habitat atKanyapella Basin, Victoria [J]. Ecological Management and Restoration,2002,3:220-221.
Schoning K, Charman D J, Wastegard S. Reconstructed water tables from two ombrotrophic mires ineastern central Sweden compared with instrumental meteorological data [J]. Holocene,2005,15(1):111-118.
Sen PK.1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau [J]. J. Am. Statist. Assoc.63:1379-1389.
Shukla VP. Modelling the dynamics of wetland macrophytes: Deoladeo National Park Wetland, India [J].Ecological Modeling,1998,109:61-86.
Spoor G, Gowing DJG. Quantification of water regime requirements of wet grassland flora [C]. In:7thinternational drainage symposium on drainage in the21st century: Food Production and theEnvironment.1998,621-628.
Stocker TF, Raible C C. Water cycle shifts gear [J]. Nature,2005,434:830-832.
Thoms MC, Sheldon F. An ecosystem approach for determining environmental water allocations inAustralian dryland river systems: The role of geomorphology [J]. Geomorphology,2002,47:153-168.
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, et al. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by2100[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:77-94.
Tisdell JG. The environmental impact of water markets: An Australian case-study [J]. Journal ofEnvironmental Management,2001,62:113-120.
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, et al. A special issure on the RCPs [J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:1-4.
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:5-31.
Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ, et al. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global meantemperature increase below2℃[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:95-116.
Voogt K D, Kite G, Droogers P et al. Modelling water allocation between a wetland and irrigatedagriculture in the Gediz Basin, Turkey [J]. Water Resources Development,2000,16(4):639-650.
Vourltis G L, Oechel W C. Landscape-scale CO2, H2O vapor and energy flux of moist-wet coastal tundraecosystem over two growing seasons [J]. Journal of Ecology,1997,85:575-590.
Vourltis GL, Oechel WC. Landscape-scale CO2, H2O vapour and eERgy flux of moist-wet coastal tundraecosystems over two growing seasons [J]. Journal of Ecology,1997,85:575-590.
Wang H., Xu S G, Sun L S. Effects of Climatic Change on Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland [J].Northeast China. Chinese Geographical Science,2006,16(3):265-269.
Wheeler BD. Introduction: restoration and wetlands [A]. In: Wheeeler B D, Shaw S C, Fojt W J, et al (eds.).Restoration of Temperate Wetlands [C]. Chichester: John Wiley&Sons Ltd,1995,1-18.
World Health Organization (WHO). Global water supply and sanitation assessment2000report [M]. WorldHealth Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund,2000.
Xiaqing Feng, Guangxin Zhang, Xiongrui Yin. Hydrological responses to climate change in NenjiangRiver Basin, Northeastern China [J]. Water Resources Management,2011,2(25):677-689.
Zhang L, Dawes WR, Wallker GR. Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes atcatchment scale [J]. Water Resources Research,2001,37(3):701-708.
拜存有,苏颖,郭旭新.流域水文过程变点分析研究综述[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(1):83-86.
曹明奎,李克让.陆地生态系统与气候变化相互作用的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(4):446-451.
曹永强.洪水资源利用与管理研究[J].资源.产业,2004,6(2):21-23.
陈刚起,吕宪国,杨青,等.三江平原沼泽蒸发研究[J].地理科学,1993,13(3):220-226.
陈克林,陆健健,吕宪国,等.中国湿地百科全书[M].北京科学技术出版社,2009.
陈敏建,王立群,丰华丽,等.湿地生态水文结构理论与分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(6):2887-2893.
陈宜瑜,主编.中国湿地研究[M].长春:吉林科学技术出版社,1995,262-268.
崔保山,杨志峰.湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].环境科学学报,2002,22(2):219-224.
崔保山,李英华,杨志峰.基于管理目标的黄河三角洲湿地生态需水量[J].生态学报,2005,25(3):607-614.
崔保山,杨志峰.湿地生态环境需水量等级划分与实例分析[J].资源科学,2003,25(1):21-28.
崔丽娟,鲍达明,肖红,等.基于生态保护目标的湿地生态需水研究[J].世界林业研究,2006,19(2):18-22.
崔丽娟,鲍达明,肖红,等.扎龙湿地生态需水分析及补水对策[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2006,38(3):128-132.
戴向前,刘昌明,陈敏建,等.扎龙湿地生态需水研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007,5(5):41-47.
邓伟,胡金明.湿地水文学研究进展及科学前沿问题[J].湿地科学,2003,1(1):12-20.
邓伟,潘响亮,栾兆擎.湿地水文学研究进展[J].水科学进展,2003,14(4):52l-527.
邓伟,翟金良,闫敏华.水空间管理与水资源的可持续性[J].地理科学,2003,23(4):385-390.
邓伟.湿地水空间效应[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(7):725-729.
丁一汇.环境和气候变化对中国的挑战[M].北京:中国气象出版社,1993．
董李勤，章光新.全球气候变化对湿地生态水文的影响研究综述[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):429-436.
董李勤，章光新.嫩江流域沼泽湿地景观变化及其水文驱动因素分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):177-183.
东迎欣.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士论文,2006.
冯峰,孙五继.洪水资源化的实现途径及手段探讨[J].中国水土保持,2005,9:4-5.
符宗斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
傅伯杰,陈利项,马克明,等.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
傅伯杰,陈利项.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,234-266.
傅伯杰,马诚.土地可持续利用评价的指标体系和方法[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):112-118.
郭洁,李国平.若尔盖气候变化及其对湿地退化的影响[J].高原气象,2007,26(2):422-428.
郭跃东,何岩,邓伟,等.扎龙国家自然湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(6):163-166.
何春光.向海湿地水禽多样性及其生境保护对策研究[J].长春:东北师范大学博士学位论文,2008.
黄锡畴.中国沼泽研究[M].科学出版社,1988.
黄奕龙,傅伯杰,陈利顶.生态水文过程研究进展[J].生态学报,2003,23(3):580-587.
李春杰,王根绪,胡宏昌,等.多年冻土区生态水文研究进展[J].节水灌溉,2009,(10):28-33.
李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,纪昌明.洪水资源化及其风险管理浅析[J].人民长江,2005,36(1):36-37.
李靖,李和跃,许士国.从1998年嫩江特大洪水谈洪水资源利用[J].浙江水利水电专科学校学报,2006,18(2):1-4.
李九一,李丽娟,姜德娟,等.沼泽湿地生态储水量及生态需水量计算方法探讨[J].地理学报,2006,61(3):289-296.
李林,李凤霞,朱西德,等.黄河源区湿地萎缩驱动力的定量辨识[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(7):1246-1255.
李兴春,林年丰,汤洁,等.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].吉林大学学报(理学版),2004,42(1):143-146.
李艳春,李艳芳.宁夏近百年来的气候变化及突变分析[J].高原气象,2001,20(1):100-104.
李颖,田竹君,叶宝莹,等.嫩江下游沼泽湿地变化的驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):686-691.
李长安,殷鸿福,俞立中.充分认识和利用洪水的淡水资源属性解决我国淡水资源紧缺的出路之一[J].科技导报,2001,7:3-5.
李长安.长江洪水资源化思考[J].地球科学中国地质大学学报,2003,28(4):461-466.
连煜,王新功,黄翀,等.基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水评价[J].地理学报,2008,63(4):451-461.
刘昌明,王会肖等.土壤-作物-大气界面水分过程与节水调控[M].北京:科学出版社,1990,10-18.
刘昌明,李道峰,田英,等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):437-445.
刘春兰,谢高地,肖玉.气候变化对白洋淀湿地的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(2):245-250.
刘大庆.基于水循环模拟的沼泽湿地生态需水研究[D].大连:大连理工大学博士学位论文,2008.
刘红玉,吕宪国,张世奎.湿地景观格局变化过程与累积环境效应研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):60-70.
刘建卫,许士国,王雪妮.洪水资源利用预案研究以吉林省报城市为例[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(3):67-70.
刘蕾.东北典型湿地及松辽流域河道内生态需水研究[D].武汉:武汉大学硕士学位论文,2005.
刘兴土.松嫩-三江平原湿地及其可持续利用[J].地理科学,1997,17(增刊):451-460.
刘兴土.东北湿地[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
陆健健,何文珊,童春富,等.湿地生态学[M].高等教育出版社,2006.
栾兆擎,邓伟,朱宝光.洪河国家级自然保护区湿地生态环境需水初探[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004,18(1):59-63.
吕金福,肖荣寰,介冬梅,等.莫莫格湖泊群近50年来的环境变化[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):279-283.
吕宪国,张为中.98嫩江、松花江洪水与流域综合管理[J].地理科学,1999,19(1):10-14.
孟宪民,崔保山,邓伟,吕宪国.松嫩流域特大洪灾的醒示：湿地功能的再认识[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(1):14-21.
孟宪民.湿地与全球环境变化[J].地理科学,1999(5):385-391.
牛焕光,张养贞.东北地区沼泽[A].//黄锡畴.中国沼泽研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1988:46-58.
牛振国,宫鹏,程晓,等.中国湿地初步遥感制图及相关地理特征分析[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(2):188-203.
潘响亮,邓伟,张道勇,等.东北地区湿地的水文景观分类及其对气候变化的脆弱性[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(1):14-18.
孙晓梅,曲延光.莫莫格湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].东北水利水电,2007,25(1):54-55.
谭学界,赵欣胜.水深梯度下湿地植被空间分布与生态适应[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(12):1460-1464.
汤洁,佘孝云,林年丰,等.生态环境需水的理论和方法研究进展[J].地理科学,2005,25(3):367-373.
唐藴,王浩,严登华.向海自然保护区湿地生态需水研究[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):101-106.
陶国芳.向海湿地生态环境需水量的界定及调控[J].长春:东北师范大学硕士学位论文,2006.
汪爱华,张树清,何艳芬. RS和GIS支持下的三江平原沼泽湿地动态变化研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(5):636-640.
王宝玉.塔里木河洪水资源化利用初探[J].西北水电,2002,4:11-14.
王国平,张玉霞.水利工程对向海湿地水文与生态的影响[J].资源科学,2002,24(3):26-30.
王昊,许士国,孙砳石.扎龙湿地芦苇沼泽蒸散耗水预测[J].生态学报,2006,26(5):1352-1358.
王浩,殷峻暹.洪水资源利用风险管理研究综述[J].水利发展研究,2004,5:4-8.
王建群,韩丽,马铁民.扎龙湿地生态系统需水量[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(2):114-119.
王立明,朱晓春,韩东辉.白洋淀流域生态水文过程演变及其生态系统退化驱动机制研究[J].中国工程科学,2010,12(6):36-40.
王立群,陈敏健,戴向前,等.松辽流域湿地生态水文结构与需水分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(6):2894-2899.
王丽,胡金明,宋长春,等.水位梯度对三江平原典型湿地植物根茎萌发及生长的影响[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(11):2432-2437.
王珊琳,丛沛桐,王瑞兰,等.生态环境需水量研究进展与理论探析[J].生态学杂志,2004,23(6):111-115.
王长科,王跃思,张安定等.若尔盖高原湿地资源及其保护对策[J].水土保持通报,2001,21(5):20-23.
王忠静,郭书英.海河流域洪水资源安全利用关键技术研究[M].北京:清华大学,2003.
吴绍洪,赵宗慈.气候变化和水的最新科学认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,5(3):125-132.
吴湘婷,江京会,苏青.洪水风险管理与洪水资源化浅议[J].人民黄河,2002,24(4):28-29.
武吉华.自然资源评价基础[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1999,35-51.
夏军.生态水文学的发展与西部生态需水问题研究面临的挑战[A].见:周光召编,全面建设小康社会:中国科技工作记者的历史责任-中国科协2003年学术年会论文集(上)[C].2003.
向立云,魏智敏.洪水资源化概念、途径与策略[J].水利发展研究,2005,7:24-29.
肖笃宁.景观生态学研究进展[M].湖南:湖南科学技术出版社,1999.
肖笃宁,胡远满,李秀珍,等.环渤海三角洲湿地的景观生态学研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,117-142.
徐东霞,章光新,尹雄锐.近50年嫩江流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):416-421.
徐岚,赵羿.利用马尔可夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J].应用生态学报,1993,4(3):272-277.
许士国,王昊.测量芦苇沼泽蒸散发量的渗流补偿方法[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):496-503.
许士国,当连问,牟志录.嫩江1998年特大洪水环境影响分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2003,01:115-119.
严登华,王浩,王芳,等.我国生态需水研究体系及关键研究命题初探[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):
杨志峰,李春晖.黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征[J].山地学报,2004,22(2):140-146.
张建云,王国庆,杨扬,等.气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(5):290-295.
张金屯,邱扬,郑凤英.湿地景观变化过程与累积环境效应研究进展[J].山地学报,2000,18(4):346-352.
张树清,张柏,汪爱华.三江平原湿地消长与区域气候变化关系研究[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(6):836-841.
张树清,张柏,汪爱华.三江平原湿地消长与区域气候变化关系研究[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(6):836-841.
张延坤,王教河,朱景亮.松嫩平原洪水资源利用的初始水权分配研究[J].中国水利,2004,17:8-10.
张镱锂,李秀彬,傅小锋等.拉萨城市用地变化分析,地理学报,2000,55(4):395-406.
章光新,郭跃东.嫩江中下游湿地生态水文功能及其退化机制与对策研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(1):122-128.
章光新，尹雄锐，冯夏清.湿地水文研究的若干热点问题[J].湿地科学,2008,6(2):105-115.
赵东升,吴正方,商丽娜.洪河保护区湿地生态需水量研究[J].湿地科学,2004,2(2):133-138.
赵飞,王忠静,刘权.洪水资源化与湿地恢复研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(1):6-10.
赵魁义,孙光友,杨永兴,等.中国沼泽志[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
郑红星,刘昌明,丰华丽.生态需水的理论内涵探讨[J].水科学进展,2004,15(5):626-633.
衷平,杨志峰,崔保山,等.白洋淀湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(8):119-126.
周林飞,许士国,李青云,等.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量安全阈值的研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(7):845-851.
左洪超,吕世华,胡引樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-244.
Adamus PR. Choices in monitoring wetlands [A]. In: Daminel H, Mckenzie D, Hyatt E, et al. Ecologicalindicators [C]. Barking: Elsevier Science Publishers Ltd,1992,571-592.
Aronson MFJ, Galatowitsch S. Long-term vegetation development of restored prairie pothole wetlands [J].Wetlands,2008,28(4):883-895.
Baumann RH, Turner RE. Direct impacts of outer continental shelf activities on wetland loss in the centralGulf of Mexico. Environmental Geology and Water Resources,1990,15:189-198.
Beniston M. Climatic Chanage: implications for the hydrological cycle and for water management [M].Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,2002.
Bergstr m S, Carlsson B, Gardelin M et al. Climate change impacts on the runoff in Sweden-assessmentsby global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modeling [J]. Climate Rsesearch,16:101-112.
Brock MA, Casanova MT. Plant life at the edges of wetlands, ecological responses to wetting and dryingpatterns//Klomp N, Lunt I, Eds. Frontiers in Ecology: Building the Links. Oxford: Elsevier Science,1997:181-192.
Brock T C M, Vierssan W V. Climatic change and hydrophtedominated communities in inland wetlandecosystem [J]. Wetland Ecology and Management, l992,2:37-49.
Burkett V, Kusler J. Climate Change: potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States,Virginia [J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
Burkett V, Kusler J. Climate Change: potential impacts and interactions in wetlands of the United States,Virginia [J]. Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2000,36(2):313-320.
Casanova MT, Brock MA. How to depth, duration and frequency of flooding influence the establishment ofwetland plant communities [J]. Plant Ecology,2000,147:237-250.
Castelein S, Otte A. Conflict and Cooperation related to International Water Resources: HistoricalPerspectives [A]. Selected papers of the international water history association’s conference on therole of water in history and development Bergen, Norway10-12August2001. IHPVI. TechnicalDocuments in Hydrology (TDH)(SC-2002/WS/53). No.62[C]. Paris: UNESCO,2002,198-206.
Charman D J, Blundell A, Chiverrell R C, et al. Compilation of non-annually resolved Holocene proxyclimate records: Stacked Holovene peatland palaeo-water table reconstructions from northern Britain[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2006,25:336-350.
Clément B, Aidoud A. Hypotheses of changes in palustrian plant communities under climate change.Spcification of model for European wetland habitats, Report of the Integrated Project to evaluate theimpacts of global change on European freshwater Ecosystems [R]. European Commission Sixthframework Programme, deliverable51, WP1, task4.2,2007.
Dahl TE. Wetland losses in the United States1970s to1980s [M]. United Stated Department of Interior,Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington DC mimeo report,1990.
Dimitriou E, Zacharias I. Micro-climate and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Hydroecological Regime of aLarge Freshwater Body. Advances in Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering [C].2005,4A-4B:822-826.
Dooge JCI, Bruen M, Parmentier B. A simple model for estimating the sensitivity of runoff to long-termchanges in precipitation without a change in vegetation [J]. Advances in Water Resources,1999,23:153-163.
Duvail S, Hamerlynck O. Mitigation of negative ecological and socio-economic impacts of the Diama damon the Senegal River Delta wetland (Mauritania), using a model based decision support system.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2003,7(1):133-146.
Eamus D, Hatton T, Cook P, et al. Ecohydrology: Vegetation Function [M]. Water and ResourceManagement. Melbounre: CSIRO Publishing,2006.
European Commission. Vulnerability and risk mapping for the protection of carbonate aquifers: final reportCOST action620[R]. Brussels: EC,2004.
Gagliano S, Meyer-Arendt K, Wicher K. Land loss in the Mississippi River Deltaic plain [J]. Gulf CoastAssociation of Geological Societies,1981,31:295-300.
Gary WB, John DP. Optimizing habitat fragmentation and afrolandscape perspective [J]. Landscape andurban planning,1994,28(1):99-105.
Gleick PH. The changing water paradigm: A look at21century water resource development [J].WaterInternational,2000,25:127-138.
Gleick PH. The World’s Water2000-2001: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources [M]. WashingtonDC: Island Press.1998a.
Gleick PH. Water in Crisis: paths to sustainable water use [J]. Ecological Application,1998b,8:571-579.
Hattermann F F, V Krysanova, Hesse C. Modelling wetland processes in regional applications [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques,2008,53(5):1001-1012.
Hirsch RM, Helsel DR, Cohn TA, Gilroy EJ.1993. Statistical analysis of hydrologic data. In: Handbook ofHydrology (ed. By DR Maidment), Ch.17,17.11-17.37. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA.
Hughes DA. Providing hydrological information and data analysis tools for the determination of ecologicalinstream flow requirements for South African rivers [J]. Journal of Hydrology,2001,241:140-151.
Hughes P D M, Lomas-Clarke S H, Schulz J, et al. The declining quality of late-Holocene ombrotrophiccommunities and the loss of Sphagnum austinii (Sull. Ex Aust.) on raised bogs in Wales[J]. TheHolocene,2010,17:613-625.
IPCC. Climate Change2007: The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D,Manning M,Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL(eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge,New York,2007,996.
Jeffrey MK, Robert HG. Landscape ecological analysis-issues and applications [M]. New York:Spring-Yerlag,1997.
Jenson J Q, Cowen D. Principles of change detection using digital remote sensor data integration of GISand remote sensing [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1997,1-25.
Jones RN, Chiew FHS, Boughtom WC, et al. Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climatechange using selected hydrological models [J]. Advances in Water Resources,2006,29:1419-1429.
Kamock A, Banaszuk P. Modeling hydrological changes of fluviogenous wetland: a landscape-scale GISapproach [J]. Publications of the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences,2008:18-26.
Kiely G, Albertson JD, Parlange, M.B. Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on thewest coast of Ireland [J]. Journal of Hydrology,1998,207(3-4):270-279.
Kingsford RT, Thomas RF. Use of satellite image analysis to track wetland loss on the MurrumbidgeeRiver floodplain in arid Australia,1975-1998. Water Science and Technology,2002,45(11):45-53.
Koster RD, Suarez MJ. A simple framework for examing the interannual variability of land surfacemoisture fluxes [J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12:1911-1917.
Koster RD, Suarez MJ. A simple framework for examing the interannual variability of land surfacemoisture fluxes [J]. Journal of Climate,1999,12:1911-1917.
Kundzewiez ZW, Robson AJ. Change detection in hydrological records a review of the methodology [J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2004,49(1):7-19.
Lahmer W, Pfutnner B, Becher A. Assessment of land use and climate chang impacts on the mesoscale [J].Phys. Chem. Earth (B),2001,26(7-8):565-575.
Lahmer W. Pfuetnner B, Becher A. Assessment of land use and climate change impacts on the mesoscale[J]. Phys Chem Earth (B),200l,26(7-8):565-575.
Li H, Reynolds JF. On definition and quantification of heterogeneity [J]. Oikos,1995,73:280-284.
LI LJ, Zhang H, Wang H, Wang J, et al. Assessing the impact of climate change and human activities onstreamflow from the Wuding River basin in China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2007,21:3485-3491.
Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijioka Y, et al. An emission pathway for stabilization at6Wm-2radiativeforcing [J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:59-76.
Mawhinney W. Restoring biodiversity in the Gwydir wetlands through environmental flows [J]. WaterScience and Technology,2003,48:73-81.
Mayer TD, Thomasson R. Fall water requirements for seasonal diked wetlands at Lower Klamath NationalWildlife Refuge [J]. Wetlands,2004,24:92-103.
Michael R M, John Middleton. A Markow model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara Region,Ontario, Canada [J]. Landscape Ecology,1994,9(2):151-157.
Middleton B A. The flood pulse concept in wetland restoration. In: Middleton B A (ed.), Flood Pulsing inWetlands: Restoring the Natural Hydrological Balance [J]. New York: John Wiley and Sons,2002.1-10.
Milly PCD, Dunne KA. Macro-scale water fluxes2. Water and energy supply control of their inter-annualvariability [J]. Water Resources Research,2002,38(10):1206.
Mitsch W J, Gosselink J G. Wetlands,3rd Ed. John Wiley&Sons, New York,2000,920.
Newbold C, Mountford J O. Water Level Requirements of Wetland Plants and Animals. Peterborough:English Nature,1997.
Nielsen D L, Brock M A. Modified water regime and salinity as a consequence of climate change:prospects for wetlands of Southern Australia [J]. Climatic Change,2009,95(3-4):523-533.
Pettitt, AN. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem [J]. Applied Statistics,1979,28(2):126-135.
Petts G E. Water allocation to protect river ecosystem [J]. Regulated Rivers: Research and Management,1996,12:353-365.
Piahi K, Rao S, Krey V, et al. RCP8.5: a scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emission [J].Climatci Change,2011,109:33-57.
Piao Shi-long, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, et al. Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impactthan rising CO2on global river runoff trends [J]. PNAS,2007,39:15242-15247.
Poianik A. Climate change and Northern Prairie wetlands: simulations of long-term dynamics [J].Limnology of Oceanography,1996,41(5):871-881.
Powell SJ, Letcher RA, Croke BFW. Modeling floodplain inundation for environmental flows: Gwydirwetlands [J].Australia. Ecological Modeling,2008,211:350-362.
Richard G Allen, Luis S Pereira, Dirk Raes. Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop waterrequirements [R]. ROME: FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper56,1998.
Roberts J, Young B, Marston F. Estimating the Water Requirements for Plants of Floodplain Wetlands：AGuide [J]. Australia: Land and Water Resources Research&Development Corporation,2000.
Robertson H A, James K R. Determining the water requirement for the rehabilitation of wetland habitat atKanyapella Basin, Victoria [J]. Ecological Management and Restoration,2002,3:220-221.
Schoning K, Charman D J, Wastegard S. Reconstructed water tables from two ombrotrophic mires ineastern central Sweden compared with instrumental meteorological data [J]. Holocene,2005,15(1):111-118.
Sen PK.1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau [J]. J. Am. Statist. Assoc.63:1379-1389.
Shukla VP. Modelling the dynamics of wetland macrophytes: Deoladeo National Park Wetland, India [J].Ecological Modeling,1998,109:61-86.
Spoor G, Gowing DJG. Quantification of water regime requirements of wet grassland flora [C]. In:7thinternational drainage symposium on drainage in the21st century: Food Production and theEnvironment.1998,621-628.
Stocker TF, Raible C C. Water cycle shifts gear [J]. Nature,2005,434:830-832.
Thoms MC, Sheldon F. An ecosystem approach for determining environmental water allocations inAustralian dryland river systems: The role of geomorphology [J]. Geomorphology,2002,47:153-168.
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, et al. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by2100[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:77-94.
Tisdell JG. The environmental impact of water markets: An Australian case-study [J]. Journal ofEnvironmental Management,2001,62:113-120.
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, et al. A special issure on the RCPs [J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:1-4.
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:5-31.
Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, den Elzen MGJ, et al. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global meantemperature increase below2℃[J]. Climatic Change,2011,109:95-116.
Voogt K D, Kite G, Droogers P et al. Modelling water allocation between a wetland and irrigatedagriculture in the Gediz Basin, Turkey [J]. Water Resources Development,2000,16(4):639-650.
Vourltis G L, Oechel W C. Landscape-scale CO2, H2O vapor and energy flux of moist-wet coastal tundraecosystem over two growing seasons [J]. Journal of Ecology,1997,85:575-590.
Vourltis GL, Oechel WC. Landscape-scale CO2, H2O vapour and eERgy flux of moist-wet coastal tundraecosystems over two growing seasons [J]. Journal of Ecology,1997,85:575-590.
Wang H., Xu S G, Sun L S. Effects of Climatic Change on Evapotranspiration in Zhalong Wetland [J].Northeast China. Chinese Geographical Science,2006,16(3):265-269.
Wheeler BD. Introduction: restoration and wetlands [A]. In: Wheeeler B D, Shaw S C, Fojt W J, et al (eds.).Restoration of Temperate Wetlands [C]. Chichester: John Wiley&Sons Ltd,1995,1-18.
World Health Organization (WHO). Global water supply and sanitation assessment2000report [M]. WorldHealth Organization and United Nations Children’s Fund,2000.
Xiaqing Feng, Guangxin Zhang, Xiongrui Yin. Hydrological responses to climate change in NenjiangRiver Basin, Northeastern China [J]. Water Resources Management,2011,2(25):677-689.
Zhang L, Dawes WR, Wallker GR. Response of mean annual evapotranspiration to vegetation changes atcatchment scale [J]. Water Resources Research,2001,37(3):701-708.
拜存有,苏颖,郭旭新.流域水文过程变点分析研究综述[J].水资源与水工程学报,2010,21(1):83-86.
曹明奎,李克让.陆地生态系统与气候变化相互作用的研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2000,15(4):446-451.
曹永强.洪水资源利用与管理研究[J].资源.产业,2004,6(2):21-23.
陈刚起,吕宪国,杨青,等.三江平原沼泽蒸发研究[J].地理科学,1993,13(3):220-226.
陈克林,陆健健,吕宪国,等.中国湿地百科全书[M].北京科学技术出版社,2009.
陈敏建,王立群,丰华丽,等.湿地生态水文结构理论与分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(6):2887-2893.
陈宜瑜,主编.中国湿地研究[M].长春:吉林科学技术出版社,1995,262-268.
崔保山,杨志峰.湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].环境科学学报,2002,22(2):219-224.
崔保山,李英华,杨志峰.基于管理目标的黄河三角洲湿地生态需水量[J].生态学报,2005,25(3):607-614.
崔保山,杨志峰.湿地生态环境需水量等级划分与实例分析[J].资源科学,2003,25(1):21-28.
崔丽娟,鲍达明,肖红,等.基于生态保护目标的湿地生态需水研究[J].世界林业研究,2006,19(2):18-22.
崔丽娟,鲍达明,肖红,等.扎龙湿地生态需水分析及补水对策[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2006,38(3):128-132.
戴向前,刘昌明,陈敏建,等.扎龙湿地生态需水研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2007,5(5):41-47.
邓伟,胡金明.湿地水文学研究进展及科学前沿问题[J].湿地科学,2003,1(1):12-20.
邓伟,潘响亮,栾兆擎.湿地水文学研究进展[J].水科学进展,2003,14(4):52l-527.
邓伟,翟金良,闫敏华.水空间管理与水资源的可持续性[J].地理科学,2003,23(4):385-390.
邓伟.湿地水空间效应[J].地球科学进展,2007,22(7):725-729.
丁一汇.环境和气候变化对中国的挑战[M].北京:中国气象出版社,1993．
董李勤，章光新.全球气候变化对湿地生态水文的影响研究综述[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):429-436.
董李勤，章光新.嫩江流域沼泽湿地景观变化及其水文驱动因素分析[J].水科学进展,2013,24(2):177-183.
东迎欣.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士论文,2006.
冯峰,孙五继.洪水资源化的实现途径及手段探讨[J].中国水土保持,2005,9:4-5.
符宗斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
傅伯杰,陈利项,马克明,等.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.
傅伯杰,陈利项.景观生态学原理及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,234-266.
傅伯杰,马诚.土地可持续利用评价的指标体系和方法[J].自然资源学报,1997,12(2):112-118.
郭洁,李国平.若尔盖气候变化及其对湿地退化的影响[J].高原气象,2007,26(2):422-428.
郭跃东,何岩,邓伟,等.扎龙国家自然湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].水土保持学报,2004,18(6):163-166.
何春光.向海湿地水禽多样性及其生境保护对策研究[J].长春:东北师范大学博士学位论文,2008.
黄锡畴.中国沼泽研究[M].科学出版社,1988.
黄奕龙,傅伯杰,陈利顶.生态水文过程研究进展[J].生态学报,2003,23(3):580-587.
李春杰,王根绪,胡宏昌,等.多年冻土区生态水文研究进展[J].节水灌溉,2009,(10):28-33.
李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,纪昌明.洪水资源化及其风险管理浅析[J].人民长江,2005,36(1):36-37.
李靖,李和跃,许士国.从1998年嫩江特大洪水谈洪水资源利用[J].浙江水利水电专科学校学报,2006,18(2):1-4.
李九一,李丽娟,姜德娟,等.沼泽湿地生态储水量及生态需水量计算方法探讨[J].地理学报,2006,61(3):289-296.
李林,李凤霞,朱西德,等.黄河源区湿地萎缩驱动力的定量辨识[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(7):1246-1255.
李兴春,林年丰,汤洁,等.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].吉林大学学报(理学版),2004,42(1):143-146.
李艳春,李艳芳.宁夏近百年来的气候变化及突变分析[J].高原气象,2001,20(1):100-104.
李颖,田竹君,叶宝莹,等.嫩江下游沼泽湿地变化的驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):686-691.
李长安,殷鸿福,俞立中.充分认识和利用洪水的淡水资源属性解决我国淡水资源紧缺的出路之一[J].科技导报,2001,7:3-5.
李长安.长江洪水资源化思考[J].地球科学中国地质大学学报,2003,28(4):461-466.
连煜,王新功,黄翀,等.基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水评价[J].地理学报,2008,63(4):451-461.
刘昌明,王会肖等.土壤-作物-大气界面水分过程与节水调控[M].北京:科学出版社,1990,10-18.
刘昌明,李道峰,田英,等.基于DEM的分布式水文模型在大尺度流域应用研究[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(5):437-445.
刘春兰,谢高地,肖玉.气候变化对白洋淀湿地的影响[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(2):245-250.
刘大庆.基于水循环模拟的沼泽湿地生态需水研究[D].大连:大连理工大学博士学位论文,2008.
刘红玉,吕宪国,张世奎.湿地景观格局变化过程与累积环境效应研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(1):60-70.
刘建卫,许士国,王雪妮.洪水资源利用预案研究以吉林省报城市为例[J].南水北调与水利科技,2009,7(3):67-70.
刘蕾.东北典型湿地及松辽流域河道内生态需水研究[D].武汉:武汉大学硕士学位论文,2005.
刘兴土.松嫩-三江平原湿地及其可持续利用[J].地理科学,1997,17(增刊):451-460.
刘兴土.东北湿地[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
陆健健,何文珊,童春富,等.湿地生态学[M].高等教育出版社,2006.
栾兆擎,邓伟,朱宝光.洪河国家级自然保护区湿地生态环境需水初探[J].干旱区资源与环境,2004,18(1):59-63.
吕金福,肖荣寰,介冬梅,等.莫莫格湖泊群近50年来的环境变化[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):279-283.
吕宪国,张为中.98嫩江、松花江洪水与流域综合管理[J].地理科学,1999,19(1):10-14.
孟宪民,崔保山,邓伟,吕宪国.松嫩流域特大洪灾的醒示：湿地功能的再认识[J].自然资源学报,1999,14(1):14-21.
孟宪民.湿地与全球环境变化[J].地理科学,1999(5):385-391.
牛焕光,张养贞.东北地区沼泽[A].//黄锡畴.中国沼泽研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1988:46-58.
牛振国,宫鹏,程晓,等.中国湿地初步遥感制图及相关地理特征分析[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2009,39(2):188-203.
潘响亮,邓伟,张道勇,等.东北地区湿地的水文景观分类及其对气候变化的脆弱性[J].环境科学研究,2003,16(1):14-18.
孙晓梅,曲延光.莫莫格湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].东北水利水电,2007,25(1):54-55.
谭学界,赵欣胜.水深梯度下湿地植被空间分布与生态适应[J].生态学杂志,2006,25(12):1460-1464.
汤洁,佘孝云,林年丰,等.生态环境需水的理论和方法研究进展[J].地理科学,2005,25(3):367-373.
唐藴,王浩,严登华.向海自然保护区湿地生态需水研究[J].资源科学,2005,27(5):101-106.
陶国芳.向海湿地生态环境需水量的界定及调控[J].长春:东北师范大学硕士学位论文,2006.
汪爱华,张树清,何艳芬. RS和GIS支持下的三江平原沼泽湿地动态变化研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(5):636-640.
王宝玉.塔里木河洪水资源化利用初探[J].西北水电,2002,4:11-14.
王国平,张玉霞.水利工程对向海湿地水文与生态的影响[J].资源科学,2002,24(3):26-30.
王昊,许士国,孙砳石.扎龙湿地芦苇沼泽蒸散耗水预测[J].生态学报,2006,26(5):1352-1358.
王浩,殷峻暹.洪水资源利用风险管理研究综述[J].水利发展研究,2004,5:4-8.
王建群,韩丽,马铁民.扎龙湿地生态系统需水量[J].湖泊科学,2006,18(2):114-119.
王立明,朱晓春,韩东辉.白洋淀流域生态水文过程演变及其生态系统退化驱动机制研究[J].中国工程科学,2010,12(6):36-40.
王立群,陈敏健,戴向前,等.松辽流域湿地生态水文结构与需水分析[J].生态学报,2008,28(6):2894-2899.
王丽,胡金明,宋长春,等.水位梯度对三江平原典型湿地植物根茎萌发及生长的影响[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(11):2432-2437.
王珊琳,丛沛桐,王瑞兰,等.生态环境需水量研究进展与理论探析[J].生态学杂志,2004,23(6):111-115.
王长科,王跃思,张安定等.若尔盖高原湿地资源及其保护对策[J].水土保持通报,2001,21(5):20-23.
王忠静,郭书英.海河流域洪水资源安全利用关键技术研究[M].北京:清华大学,2003.
吴绍洪,赵宗慈.气候变化和水的最新科学认知[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,5(3):125-132.
吴湘婷,江京会,苏青.洪水风险管理与洪水资源化浅议[J].人民黄河,2002,24(4):28-29.
武吉华.自然资源评价基础[M].北京:北京师范大学出版社,1999,35-51.
夏军.生态水文学的发展与西部生态需水问题研究面临的挑战[A].见:周光召编,全面建设小康社会:中国科技工作记者的历史责任-中国科协2003年学术年会论文集(上)[C].2003.
向立云,魏智敏.洪水资源化概念、途径与策略[J].水利发展研究,2005,7:24-29.
肖笃宁.景观生态学研究进展[M].湖南:湖南科学技术出版社,1999.
肖笃宁,胡远满,李秀珍,等.环渤海三角洲湿地的景观生态学研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2001,117-142.
徐东霞,章光新,尹雄锐.近50年嫩江流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):416-421.
徐岚,赵羿.利用马尔可夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化[J].应用生态学报,1993,4(3):272-277.
许士国,王昊.测量芦苇沼泽蒸散发量的渗流补偿方法[J].水科学进展,2007,18(4):496-503.
许士国,当连问,牟志录.嫩江1998年特大洪水环境影响分析[J].大连理工大学学报,2003,01:115-119.
严登华,王浩,王芳,等.我国生态需水研究体系及关键研究命题初探[J].水利学报,2007,38(3):
杨志峰,李春晖.黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征[J].山地学报,2004,22(2):140-146.
张建云,王国庆,杨扬,等.气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(5):290-295.
张金屯,邱扬,郑凤英.湿地景观变化过程与累积环境效应研究进展[J].山地学报,2000,18(4):346-352.
张树清,张柏,汪爱华.三江平原湿地消长与区域气候变化关系研究[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(6):836-841.
张树清,张柏,汪爱华.三江平原湿地消长与区域气候变化关系研究[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(6):836-841.
张延坤,王教河,朱景亮.松嫩平原洪水资源利用的初始水权分配研究[J].中国水利,2004,17:8-10.
张镱锂,李秀彬,傅小锋等.拉萨城市用地变化分析,地理学报,2000,55(4):395-406.
章光新,郭跃东.嫩江中下游湿地生态水文功能及其退化机制与对策研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(1):122-128.
章光新，尹雄锐，冯夏清.湿地水文研究的若干热点问题[J].湿地科学,2008,6(2):105-115.
赵东升,吴正方,商丽娜.洪河保护区湿地生态需水量研究[J].湿地科学,2004,2(2):133-138.
赵飞,王忠静,刘权.洪水资源化与湿地恢复研究[J].水利水电科技进展,2006,26(1):6-10.
赵魁义,孙光友,杨永兴,等.中国沼泽志[M].北京:科学出版社,1999.
郑红星,刘昌明,丰华丽.生态需水的理论内涵探讨[J].水科学进展,2004,15(5):626-633.
衷平,杨志峰,崔保山,等.白洋淀湿地生态环境需水量研究[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(8):119-126.
周林飞,许士国,李青云,等.扎龙湿地生态环境需水量安全阈值的研究[J].水利学报,2007,38(7):845-851.
左洪超,吕世华,胡引樵.中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势分析[J].高原气象,2004,23(2):238-244.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |