中国区域金融稳定评估问题研究
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摘要
在全球金融危机爆发的2008年,中国不同地区经济发展差异明显,东部发达地区经济增长普遍遭受寒流,上海市曾一度出现经济零增长,中部地区经济增长速度超过了全国平均水平,西部地区经济增长则延续了原有的趋势。在金融危机爆发前全国经济快速发展的过程中,不同地区、省份与不同行业间不可避免地积累了相当的风险,为地区经济增长与金融深化发展带来了隐患。金融危机爆发后,不同地区与省份的金融体系受到外部冲击的影响截然不同,所曝露和释放的风险也必然存在差异,地区金融稳定性发了很大的变化。危机过后,中国经济尚未完全恢复,国内为刺激经济增长而采取宽松扩张的货币政策使得不同地区的金融体系不稳定性增加。与此同时,国家产业结构的调整以及相关产业由沿海地区向内陆地区的转移对区域产业经济发展的冲击程度也不得而知,这为经济增长中起核心作用的金融体系再次带来了未知因素。受区域经济总量、区域产业结构合理性、区域企业核心竞争力与人才资源等多重因素的影响,不同地区金融体系在外部环境冲击下防范和化解风险的能力会有强弱之分,对中国区域金融体系的稳定性进行系统研究与评估具有理论和现实意义。
目前,对于金融稳定评估问题的研究尚未形成体系,而现有的区域金融稳定评估的研究文献中既具备系统性的理论又具备结论性的实证分析的研究乏善可陈。国内研究区域金融稳定的文献大多集中于对区域金融稳定的层次化指标评估研究,研究结论主观性较强,且未能与宏观经济形势、不同经济部门的状况结合起来进行全面分析。本文在金融稳定与金融稳定评估相关研究文献综述的基础上,根据宏观资产负债表的概念与框架提出了中国区域金融稳定评估方法,并设计了稳定评估指标。考虑到当前国内舆论对资产泡沫的争议,以及传统或有权益结构分析方法中关于资产泡沫的局限性,本文通过对国内股市泡沫进行度量并对或有权益方法进行修正,力求使得所设计的区域金融稳定评估指标能反映更为实际的区域金融稳定状况。
本文选取中国中部地区作为区域金融稳定实证评估对象,在分析了中国中部地区的经济运行状况和对中部地区金融运行状况进行横向与历史的比较后,本文并利用所提出的区域金融稳定评估方法与设计的稳定评估指标对中部地区金融稳定进行了实证评估,并根据评估结论提出了中部地区金融稳定维护的有关政策建议。
本文正文共含七章内容。结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。
第二章,首先回顾了金融稳定内涵界定的有关文献,按照直接界定金融稳定的方式与间接界定金融稳定的方式进行了综述,并从传统经济学、信息经济学的角度对金融稳定问题进行了理论解释。然后对金融稳定实证研究的文献,包括金融稳定影响因素与金融稳定评估的实证研究,进行了比较分析。最后本章引入了国际国内关于区域金融稳定的相关理论发展与实证研究。从相关文献情况来看,对区域金融稳定评估尚未有系统的理论阐述。
第三章,由稳定评估的立足点出发,正式引入了区域金融稳定评估的相关概念,包括评估对象、评估标准与评估流程,并对现有的金融稳定评估方法进行了归类介绍与评价,详细阐述了现有方法的应用性与局限性。
第四章,创新性的提出了基于宏观资产负债表框架的区域金融稳定评估方法,引入宏观资产负债表概念,对以宏观资产负债表为基础的资产负债表结构分析方法和或有权益结构分析方法的原理进行了详细的介绍,并利用或有权益结构分析方法编制出部门资产负债表和设计出动态的金融稳定评估之指标。最后对或有权益结构分析方法进行了修正,使得基于该分析方法的稳定评估指标更能反映区域实际金融稳定状况。
第五章,对区域金融稳定实证评估对象——中国中部地区的金融运行状况进行了一般性结构分析,以此作为对中部地区金融稳定实证评估的基础,使得对实证评估结果的相关解释能与评估对象的金融运行状况相对应。
第六章,利用前文引入的宏观资产负债表分析框架下的资产负债表结构分析与或有权益结构分析,对中部地区金融稳定进行了实证评估,并利用压力测试前瞻性的对影响因素的未来变动导致的稳定状况的变化做了预测,最后针对评估结果详细分析了中部地区实际金融稳定状况。
第七章,为了达到维护区域金融稳定的目标,本文在前文评估的基础上针对区域金融稳定的维护提出了相关的建议与意见。
虽然全球金融危机最坏的时期已过,但在当前资产价格上涨过快和经济恢复过程中实际有效需求不足的情况下,区域经济发展和金融稳定再次受到了考验,经济金融运行面临的宏观风险可能更为严峻,因此需采取积极有效的政策与措施,维护区域金融的安全与稳定。
In the year of global financial turmoil, the economic growth of different regions of China show great differences. The economy of east section suffer cold snap widespread and the city of Shanghai once experienced zero ecnomic gwoth rate, while central section kept a high economic growth which is above the average of different regions of China, and west section continued its previous ecnomic growth trend. In the process of economic growth before the financial turmoil, huge risk has been accumulated among different regions, provinces and industries. It may bring hidden troubles for the economic growth and financial deepening of different regions in future. As the financial turmoil went on, the influences brought by external shock on different regional financial systems show large divergence and regional financial stabilities changed a lot. After the financial turmoil, loosing and expanding monetary policies have been used to stimulate the economy, which cause the instability of financial systems of different regions increasing. Meanwhile, the adjustment of domestic industrial structure and the movement of some industries from costal region to inland region will cause influence to the economy of central section, and the influence brings unknown effect to the financial system. Ristricted by the regional economy scale, soundness of regional industrial structure, regional competetive ability of enterprises and human resources, the ability of guarding against and removing risk from the financial system of different regions will be different. Based on the above reasons, it is theoretic and realistic to make systematic research and estimation on the stability of regional financial system.
Until rencently, few literatures of estimation on regional financial stability contains both systematic theory and conclusive empirical analysis. Most domestic literatures on regional financial stability focus on layering indicators research which cause the conclusion subjective and weak connection to the macro-economy and economic departments. Based on the overview of the literature on financial stability and financial stability estimation, under the concept and analytic framework of macro balance sheet, this paper provides the ways and indicators of estimating financial stability of central section. Besides, considering the domestic disputes on the asset bubbles and the restraints of the traditional contingent claim approach, this paper amend the model of contingent claim approach and measure the bubbles of domestic stock markets to obtain actual quantitative conclusion of financial stability of central section. This paper also gives a cross-sectional and historical comparison of financial stability of central section based on the provincial situation of economy and finance. Finally this paper provides suggestions on regional financial stability maintenance and regional financial supervisions due to the empirical conclusion.
This paper contains seven chapters and its structure is as follows:
Chapter 1 is introduction.
Chapter 2 gives an overview of previous literature study on the concept of financial stability, including direct and indirect concept of financial stability, then this chapter makes a theoretic explanation to the issue of financial stability from the view of traditional economics, information economics. After that this chapter compares the empirical analysis of financial stability, includes the factors affecting financial stability and estimation of financial stability. At last this chapter introduces the theoretic and empirical study of regional financial stability from foreign and domestic literatures. From the information of these literatures, there is no systematic explanation on estimation of regional financial stability.
Chapter 3 starts from the standpoint of stability estimation. This chapter formally introduces the concept and the framework of estimation of regional financial stability, classifies and comments on the previous ways of estimating financial stability. Practice and restraints of these ways have been detailedly discussed.
Chapter 4 provides a way of estimating regional financial stability based on the framework of macro balance sheet for innovation. This chapter introduces the concept of macro balance sheet and the details of balance sheet approach and contingent claim approach and design the indicators of financial stability based on department balance sheet which is formulated from the contingent claim approach. At last this chapter amends the contingent claim approach to make the stability indicators more realistic in reflecting the regional financial stability.
Chapter 5 gives a brief analysis on the financial structure of central section, to provide some basic information of the empirical analysis of estimating the financial stability of central section, and to match the basic situation and the indicators of central section.
Chapter 6 uses the innovative ways and indicators for estimating regional stability, to empirically estimate the financial stability of central section, and uses the macro stress testing to forecast the change of influences on financial stability from the factors which influence financial stability. Finally this chapter gives a conclusion on the actual financial stability of central section based on the empirical analysis.
Chapter 7 offers suggestions on regional financial supervision and regional financial maintenance for maintaining the regional financial stability due to the conclusion of the empirical estimation.
Although the worst situation of global financial turmoil has gone, under the circumstances of fast rise in asset prices and shortage in real effective social needs, regional economic growth and regional financial stability may suffer severe trials again, and the macro risk in the process of economic growth and financial development may be more serious. More effective ways in risk management need to be implemented to maitain the regional financial safety and stability.
目前,对于金融稳定评估问题的研究尚未形成体系,而现有的区域金融稳定评估的研究文献中既具备系统性的理论又具备结论性的实证分析的研究乏善可陈。国内研究区域金融稳定的文献大多集中于对区域金融稳定的层次化指标评估研究,研究结论主观性较强,且未能与宏观经济形势、不同经济部门的状况结合起来进行全面分析。本文在金融稳定与金融稳定评估相关研究文献综述的基础上,根据宏观资产负债表的概念与框架提出了中国区域金融稳定评估方法,并设计了稳定评估指标。考虑到当前国内舆论对资产泡沫的争议,以及传统或有权益结构分析方法中关于资产泡沫的局限性,本文通过对国内股市泡沫进行度量并对或有权益方法进行修正,力求使得所设计的区域金融稳定评估指标能反映更为实际的区域金融稳定状况。
本文选取中国中部地区作为区域金融稳定实证评估对象,在分析了中国中部地区的经济运行状况和对中部地区金融运行状况进行横向与历史的比较后,本文并利用所提出的区域金融稳定评估方法与设计的稳定评估指标对中部地区金融稳定进行了实证评估,并根据评估结论提出了中部地区金融稳定维护的有关政策建议。
本文正文共含七章内容。结构安排如下：
第一章为导论。
第二章,首先回顾了金融稳定内涵界定的有关文献,按照直接界定金融稳定的方式与间接界定金融稳定的方式进行了综述,并从传统经济学、信息经济学的角度对金融稳定问题进行了理论解释。然后对金融稳定实证研究的文献,包括金融稳定影响因素与金融稳定评估的实证研究,进行了比较分析。最后本章引入了国际国内关于区域金融稳定的相关理论发展与实证研究。从相关文献情况来看,对区域金融稳定评估尚未有系统的理论阐述。
第三章,由稳定评估的立足点出发,正式引入了区域金融稳定评估的相关概念,包括评估对象、评估标准与评估流程,并对现有的金融稳定评估方法进行了归类介绍与评价,详细阐述了现有方法的应用性与局限性。
第四章,创新性的提出了基于宏观资产负债表框架的区域金融稳定评估方法,引入宏观资产负债表概念,对以宏观资产负债表为基础的资产负债表结构分析方法和或有权益结构分析方法的原理进行了详细的介绍,并利用或有权益结构分析方法编制出部门资产负债表和设计出动态的金融稳定评估之指标。最后对或有权益结构分析方法进行了修正,使得基于该分析方法的稳定评估指标更能反映区域实际金融稳定状况。
第五章,对区域金融稳定实证评估对象——中国中部地区的金融运行状况进行了一般性结构分析,以此作为对中部地区金融稳定实证评估的基础,使得对实证评估结果的相关解释能与评估对象的金融运行状况相对应。
第六章,利用前文引入的宏观资产负债表分析框架下的资产负债表结构分析与或有权益结构分析,对中部地区金融稳定进行了实证评估,并利用压力测试前瞻性的对影响因素的未来变动导致的稳定状况的变化做了预测,最后针对评估结果详细分析了中部地区实际金融稳定状况。
第七章,为了达到维护区域金融稳定的目标,本文在前文评估的基础上针对区域金融稳定的维护提出了相关的建议与意见。
虽然全球金融危机最坏的时期已过,但在当前资产价格上涨过快和经济恢复过程中实际有效需求不足的情况下,区域经济发展和金融稳定再次受到了考验,经济金融运行面临的宏观风险可能更为严峻,因此需采取积极有效的政策与措施,维护区域金融的安全与稳定。
In the year of global financial turmoil, the economic growth of different regions of China show great differences. The economy of east section suffer cold snap widespread and the city of Shanghai once experienced zero ecnomic gwoth rate, while central section kept a high economic growth which is above the average of different regions of China, and west section continued its previous ecnomic growth trend. In the process of economic growth before the financial turmoil, huge risk has been accumulated among different regions, provinces and industries. It may bring hidden troubles for the economic growth and financial deepening of different regions in future. As the financial turmoil went on, the influences brought by external shock on different regional financial systems show large divergence and regional financial stabilities changed a lot. After the financial turmoil, loosing and expanding monetary policies have been used to stimulate the economy, which cause the instability of financial systems of different regions increasing. Meanwhile, the adjustment of domestic industrial structure and the movement of some industries from costal region to inland region will cause influence to the economy of central section, and the influence brings unknown effect to the financial system. Ristricted by the regional economy scale, soundness of regional industrial structure, regional competetive ability of enterprises and human resources, the ability of guarding against and removing risk from the financial system of different regions will be different. Based on the above reasons, it is theoretic and realistic to make systematic research and estimation on the stability of regional financial system.
Until rencently, few literatures of estimation on regional financial stability contains both systematic theory and conclusive empirical analysis. Most domestic literatures on regional financial stability focus on layering indicators research which cause the conclusion subjective and weak connection to the macro-economy and economic departments. Based on the overview of the literature on financial stability and financial stability estimation, under the concept and analytic framework of macro balance sheet, this paper provides the ways and indicators of estimating financial stability of central section. Besides, considering the domestic disputes on the asset bubbles and the restraints of the traditional contingent claim approach, this paper amend the model of contingent claim approach and measure the bubbles of domestic stock markets to obtain actual quantitative conclusion of financial stability of central section. This paper also gives a cross-sectional and historical comparison of financial stability of central section based on the provincial situation of economy and finance. Finally this paper provides suggestions on regional financial stability maintenance and regional financial supervisions due to the empirical conclusion.
This paper contains seven chapters and its structure is as follows:
Chapter 1 is introduction.
Chapter 2 gives an overview of previous literature study on the concept of financial stability, including direct and indirect concept of financial stability, then this chapter makes a theoretic explanation to the issue of financial stability from the view of traditional economics, information economics. After that this chapter compares the empirical analysis of financial stability, includes the factors affecting financial stability and estimation of financial stability. At last this chapter introduces the theoretic and empirical study of regional financial stability from foreign and domestic literatures. From the information of these literatures, there is no systematic explanation on estimation of regional financial stability.
Chapter 3 starts from the standpoint of stability estimation. This chapter formally introduces the concept and the framework of estimation of regional financial stability, classifies and comments on the previous ways of estimating financial stability. Practice and restraints of these ways have been detailedly discussed.
Chapter 4 provides a way of estimating regional financial stability based on the framework of macro balance sheet for innovation. This chapter introduces the concept of macro balance sheet and the details of balance sheet approach and contingent claim approach and design the indicators of financial stability based on department balance sheet which is formulated from the contingent claim approach. At last this chapter amends the contingent claim approach to make the stability indicators more realistic in reflecting the regional financial stability.
Chapter 5 gives a brief analysis on the financial structure of central section, to provide some basic information of the empirical analysis of estimating the financial stability of central section, and to match the basic situation and the indicators of central section.
Chapter 6 uses the innovative ways and indicators for estimating regional stability, to empirically estimate the financial stability of central section, and uses the macro stress testing to forecast the change of influences on financial stability from the factors which influence financial stability. Finally this chapter gives a conclusion on the actual financial stability of central section based on the empirical analysis.
Chapter 7 offers suggestions on regional financial supervision and regional financial maintenance for maintaining the regional financial stability due to the conclusion of the empirical estimation.
Although the worst situation of global financial turmoil has gone, under the circumstances of fast rise in asset prices and shortage in real effective social needs, regional economic growth and regional financial stability may suffer severe trials again, and the macro risk in the process of economic growth and financial development may be more serious. More effective ways in risk management need to be implemented to maitain the regional financial safety and stability.
引文
9引自IMF,2003,Compilation Guide on Financial Soundness Indicators.
12相对水平的波动性指标构造引自Morales R., Schumacher L.,2003, Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator:An Application to Israel, IMF Working Paper No.03/47。
13从股票和次级债价格获取有关风险指标的公式引自Gropp R.,Vesala J.,Vulpes G.,2002, Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston。
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<34> Agenor. Pierre-Richard,2001. "Business cycles, economic crises, and the poor: testing for asymmetric effects", Policy Research Working Paper Series 2700, The World Bank.
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<40> Carmen Reinhart, Graciela Kaminsky,2001, "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis", MPRA Paper No.7580,2001.
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<42> Chant, J.,2003, "Financial Stability as a Policy Goal", Bank of Canad, a Technical Report, No.95, September.
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<53> Fisher.I,1907,"The Rate of Interest", New York:Macmillan.
<54> Fisher Black, M. Scholes M,1973, "the Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.81, No.3.
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<57> Houben., A, Kakes, J and G Schinasi.2004, "Towards a framework for safeguarding financial stability". IMF Working Paper,101(4):11—12.
<58> Hoggarth G.,Saporta V.,2001,"Costs of Banking System Instability:Some Empirical Evidence", Financial Stability Review:150～155.
<59> Hyman P. Minsky,1992, "The Financial Instability Hypothesis", Working Paper No.74.
<60> Issing, O.,2003, "Monetary and Financial Stability:Is there a Trade off?", BIS Working Paper.
<61> Jan Willem van den End,2006, "Indicator and Boundaries of Financial Stability", DNB Working Paper.
<62> Josseph E. Stiglitz, AndrewWeiss,1981, "Credit Rationing inMarketswith Imperfect Information", American Economic Review,71.
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<65> Martin Eichenbaum, Jonas D.M. Fisher,1998. "How does an increase in government purchases affect economy?", Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 29-43.
<66> Marvin. Goodfriend,2001, "Financial stability, Deflation and Monetary Policy", Federal Reserve Bank of Richmind Working paper, No.01.
<67> Mishkin, F. S.,1999, "Global financial instability:framework, events, issues", Journal of Economicperspectives,,13 (4):3-20.
<68> Morales R., Schumacher L.,2003, "Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator:An Application to Israel", IMF Working Paper No.03/47.
<69> Mulder C., Perrelli R. Rocha M.,2002, "The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet", IMF Working Paper.
<70> R. C. Merton, Z. Bodie,2004, "The Design of Financial Systems:Towards a Synthesis of Function and Structure", NBER Working Paper.
<71> Ricardo Hausmann, Michael Gavin, Carmen Pages-Serra, Ernesto H. Stein, 1999, "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime", RES Working Papers 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
<72> Schinasi G J.,2003, "Responsibility of central banks forstability in financial market" IMF Working Paper, (3):121～132.
<73> Schwartz A. J.,1995, "Why Financial Stability Depends on Price Stability", Economic Affairs:pp.21-25.
<74> Well, Philippe,1990," On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles", Econometrica, Vol.58, No.6:1467-1474.
<75> Weller, Christian E.,2001. "Global Money, Capital Restructuring, and the Changing Patterns of Labor", Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 198-200.
12相对水平的波动性指标构造引自Morales R., Schumacher L.,2003, Market Volatility as a Financial Soundness Indicator:An Application to Israel, IMF Working Paper No.03/47。
13从股票和次级债价格获取有关风险指标的公式引自Gropp R.,Vesala J.,Vulpes G.,2002, Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston。
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