盐岩地下储气库风险评估与调控方法研究
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摘要
石油和天然气战略储备是国家保障能源安全稳定供应的重要手段之一,越来越受到世界各国的高度重视。盐岩地下储气库利用盐岩低渗透率、良好的蠕变行为和损伤自我恢复能力,实现能源战略储备安全、可靠、经济以及节省土地、保护环境的目的。国外盐岩地下储气库破坏、气体泄漏和地表沉降等事故时有发生,对环境和能源安全储备带来灾难性后果。我国盐岩地下储气库项目建设刚刚起步,而且与国外在巨厚盐丘中修建储气库相比,盐岩层具有埋藏浅、盐层薄、夹层多、品位低的特点,进一步加大了项目建设和运营风险。因此,在我国开展盐岩地下储气库风险评估与调控方法研究,是确保实现油气能源安全储备的迫切要求。
本文主要研究内容和创新成果如下：
(1)建立盐岩地下储气库风险分级全息模型,提出职责化情景过滤和定性严重性分级过滤方法。风险分级全息模型从项目管理、环境、技术、围岩介质、库体、控制和功能等7个视角展示储气库全寿命期主要风险源；经职责化情景过滤和定性严重性分级过滤,确定设计方、施工方和运营方需重点关注的高风险源。
(2)建立盐岩地下储气库体积收敛失效概率分析一次二阶矩法显示功能函数,得出储气库体积收敛失效概率随内压和时间的变化规律。在长期恒定内压工况下体积收敛失效概率随内压的增大而减小,且相同失效概率下内压值随时间的延长而增大；在短期调峰低压运行工况下,体积收敛失效概率随内压的减小而增大,储气库最小运行内压应大于4.2Mpa。
(3)通过模型试验得出储气库体积收敛变形随内压和注、采气速率的变化规律。储气库体积收敛随内压的增大而减小,最低运行内压应大于4.0MPa；体积收敛变形在高压运行时呈加速变化趋势,最高运行压力应小于22.0MPa；体积收敛受注、采气速率变化影响显著,应控制注气速率小于0.75Mpa/d,采气速率小于0.65Mpa/d。
(4)在盐岩地下储气库风险因子影响模糊综合评价基础上,建立“储气库破坏”、“储气库泄漏”和“储气库地表沉降”三大事故风险评价层次分析模型,确定风险因子影响权重分布和风险水平。
(5)建立盐岩地下储气库风险管理程序,提出设计方案优化、施工动态控制和运行工况优化的风险调控方法。确定层状盐岩地下储气库椭球形腔体及关键设计参数优化方案；根据三大事故失效概率分析结果,确定储气库在不同运行工况下压力(压差)、时间和注、采气速率安全取值范围。
(6)建立基于信息化技术的盐岩地下储气库项目风险管理和评价系统。完成系统数据流、工作流和封装与发布设计；将项目信息库、风险管理计划、风险辨识与过滤、风险评估、风险监控和风险应急救援等功能模块进行有机集成,实现数据的储存、调用和分析处理,为提高项目风险管理信息化水平奠定基础。
Energy strategic reserve of oil and gas is one of the most important means to ensure security and stability energy supply. It will be paid more and more attention by countries all over the world. The salt rock has the properties of low permeability, creep behavior, damage self-healing ability and other good characteristics. These properties has been used in salt rock underground gas storage to achieve the aims of safe, reliable, economic, saving land and protecting environment for energy strategic reserve. Some accidents happen frequently in foreign countries, such as destruction of gas storage, gas leakage and surface subsidence, etc. It has brought disastrous consequences to environment and energy reserve safety. Salt rock gas storage construction has just started in China. And the salt rock has the properties of shallower burial depth, lower thickness, multiple interlayer and lower grade compared with gas storage built in very thick salt rock in foreign countries. It will further increase project construction and operation risk. Therefore, study on risk assessment and regulation method of salt rock underground gas storage should be carried out in China to realize safe energy reserve of oil and gas.
The research results of this paper lie in the following areas:
(1) Risk holographic modeling of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and a method of responsibility scene filtration and qualitative severity classification filtration has been also proposed. Main risk sources during whole life cycle of gas storage have been displayed based on risk holographic modeling from seven aspects, project management, environment, technique, rock-mass mediums, gas storage entirety, controlling and function. By responsibility scene filtration and qualitative severity classification filtration, high and higher risk items should be mainly concerned by design, construction and operation organization have been determined.
(2) First-order second-moment shown performance function used to analyze volume convergence failure probability of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and change law of volume convergence failure probability with internal pressure of gas storage and time could be obtained. Volume convergence failure probability decreases while internal pressure increases under the condition of long-term constant internal pressure of gas storage. And internal pressure value increases with time under the condition of same failure probability. Volume convergence failure probability increases while internal pressure decreases under the operation condition of low pressure gas recovery and the minimum internal pressure of gas storage should be kept above4.2MPa.
(3) It could be obtained that volume convergence deformation of gas storage decreases while internal pressure increases and the minimum internal pressure should be kept above4.0MPa by model test. While volume convergence deformation showed a tendency of accelerated deformation under operation condition of high pressure and the maximum operation pressure should be less than22.0MPa. Changes of gas injection and gas recovery rate have a significant effect on volume convergence deformation. Gas injection rate should be controlled less than0.75MPa/d while gas recovery rate should be controlled less than0.65MPa/d.
(4) Besad on the conclusion of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the risk factors, Established the model of Risk assessment analytical hierarchy process of three accidents. Determined the weights distribution effected of different risk factors and obtained the level of three accidents.
(5) Risk management program of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and risk regulation method, such as optimization of design scheme, dynamic control of construction and optimization of operation condition has been proposed. Optimization scheme of ellipsoidal cavity and key design parameters of layered salt rock gas storage has been determined. According to analysis results of three accidents failure probability, safe value range of pressure of operation condition, time, gas injection and gas recovery rate has also been determined.
(6) System of project risk management and evaluation of salt rock underground gas storage has been established based on information technology and data stream, work flow, design of encapsulation and publishing of system have been completed. Six function modules, including project information database, risk management plan, risk identification and filtration, risk assessment, risk monitoring and risk emergency rescue, have been organically integrated to achieve the aims of storage, calling, analysis and processing of data. It will lay a foundation for improving project risk management level.
本文主要研究内容和创新成果如下：
(1)建立盐岩地下储气库风险分级全息模型,提出职责化情景过滤和定性严重性分级过滤方法。风险分级全息模型从项目管理、环境、技术、围岩介质、库体、控制和功能等7个视角展示储气库全寿命期主要风险源；经职责化情景过滤和定性严重性分级过滤,确定设计方、施工方和运营方需重点关注的高风险源。
(2)建立盐岩地下储气库体积收敛失效概率分析一次二阶矩法显示功能函数,得出储气库体积收敛失效概率随内压和时间的变化规律。在长期恒定内压工况下体积收敛失效概率随内压的增大而减小,且相同失效概率下内压值随时间的延长而增大；在短期调峰低压运行工况下,体积收敛失效概率随内压的减小而增大,储气库最小运行内压应大于4.2Mpa。
(3)通过模型试验得出储气库体积收敛变形随内压和注、采气速率的变化规律。储气库体积收敛随内压的增大而减小,最低运行内压应大于4.0MPa；体积收敛变形在高压运行时呈加速变化趋势,最高运行压力应小于22.0MPa；体积收敛受注、采气速率变化影响显著,应控制注气速率小于0.75Mpa/d,采气速率小于0.65Mpa/d。
(4)在盐岩地下储气库风险因子影响模糊综合评价基础上,建立“储气库破坏”、“储气库泄漏”和“储气库地表沉降”三大事故风险评价层次分析模型,确定风险因子影响权重分布和风险水平。
(5)建立盐岩地下储气库风险管理程序,提出设计方案优化、施工动态控制和运行工况优化的风险调控方法。确定层状盐岩地下储气库椭球形腔体及关键设计参数优化方案；根据三大事故失效概率分析结果,确定储气库在不同运行工况下压力(压差)、时间和注、采气速率安全取值范围。
(6)建立基于信息化技术的盐岩地下储气库项目风险管理和评价系统。完成系统数据流、工作流和封装与发布设计；将项目信息库、风险管理计划、风险辨识与过滤、风险评估、风险监控和风险应急救援等功能模块进行有机集成,实现数据的储存、调用和分析处理,为提高项目风险管理信息化水平奠定基础。
Energy strategic reserve of oil and gas is one of the most important means to ensure security and stability energy supply. It will be paid more and more attention by countries all over the world. The salt rock has the properties of low permeability, creep behavior, damage self-healing ability and other good characteristics. These properties has been used in salt rock underground gas storage to achieve the aims of safe, reliable, economic, saving land and protecting environment for energy strategic reserve. Some accidents happen frequently in foreign countries, such as destruction of gas storage, gas leakage and surface subsidence, etc. It has brought disastrous consequences to environment and energy reserve safety. Salt rock gas storage construction has just started in China. And the salt rock has the properties of shallower burial depth, lower thickness, multiple interlayer and lower grade compared with gas storage built in very thick salt rock in foreign countries. It will further increase project construction and operation risk. Therefore, study on risk assessment and regulation method of salt rock underground gas storage should be carried out in China to realize safe energy reserve of oil and gas.
The research results of this paper lie in the following areas:
(1) Risk holographic modeling of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and a method of responsibility scene filtration and qualitative severity classification filtration has been also proposed. Main risk sources during whole life cycle of gas storage have been displayed based on risk holographic modeling from seven aspects, project management, environment, technique, rock-mass mediums, gas storage entirety, controlling and function. By responsibility scene filtration and qualitative severity classification filtration, high and higher risk items should be mainly concerned by design, construction and operation organization have been determined.
(2) First-order second-moment shown performance function used to analyze volume convergence failure probability of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and change law of volume convergence failure probability with internal pressure of gas storage and time could be obtained. Volume convergence failure probability decreases while internal pressure increases under the condition of long-term constant internal pressure of gas storage. And internal pressure value increases with time under the condition of same failure probability. Volume convergence failure probability increases while internal pressure decreases under the operation condition of low pressure gas recovery and the minimum internal pressure of gas storage should be kept above4.2MPa.
(3) It could be obtained that volume convergence deformation of gas storage decreases while internal pressure increases and the minimum internal pressure should be kept above4.0MPa by model test. While volume convergence deformation showed a tendency of accelerated deformation under operation condition of high pressure and the maximum operation pressure should be less than22.0MPa. Changes of gas injection and gas recovery rate have a significant effect on volume convergence deformation. Gas injection rate should be controlled less than0.75MPa/d while gas recovery rate should be controlled less than0.65MPa/d.
(4) Besad on the conclusion of Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the risk factors, Established the model of Risk assessment analytical hierarchy process of three accidents. Determined the weights distribution effected of different risk factors and obtained the level of three accidents.
(5) Risk management program of salt rock underground gas storage has been established and risk regulation method, such as optimization of design scheme, dynamic control of construction and optimization of operation condition has been proposed. Optimization scheme of ellipsoidal cavity and key design parameters of layered salt rock gas storage has been determined. According to analysis results of three accidents failure probability, safe value range of pressure of operation condition, time, gas injection and gas recovery rate has also been determined.
(6) System of project risk management and evaluation of salt rock underground gas storage has been established based on information technology and data stream, work flow, design of encapsulation and publishing of system have been completed. Six function modules, including project information database, risk management plan, risk identification and filtration, risk assessment, risk monitoring and risk emergency rescue, have been organically integrated to achieve the aims of storage, calling, analysis and processing of data. It will lay a foundation for improving project risk management level.
引文
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