中国快速城市化进程中农村劳动力转移及其经济效应研究
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摘要
进入新世纪以来,中国的城市化速度明显加快,年均递增1.3个百分点。根据城市化的发展规律,中国的城市化已进入快速发展期。2010年底城镇人口69079万人,占总人口比重首次超过50%,达到51.3%；城市建设用地面积达39758平方公里,与1990年的11608平方公里相比,增长了242.5%,城区面积达178692平方公里。土地城市化的投资驱动仍是我国快速城市化的最主要手段,我国的城市化还没有进入人口市民化的发展阶段。与土地的城市化相比,人口的城市化相对落后。导致人口城市化落后的最主要原因是农村劳动力向城镇转移不顺畅、农村人口向城镇迁移受到限制。
本文在快速城市化的大背景下分析和回顾了我国农村劳动力转移的的现状和历程。城市化和农村劳动力转移实质上是同一问题,当大量的农村劳动力转移到城镇就业在宏观上就表现为城市化进程。从历年劳动力转移的资料看,目前我国农村劳动力的受教育水平不断提高、外出务工收入占农户全年收入比不断上升,同时从我国农村劳动力转移的历程看,农村劳动力的转移过程也是我国户籍制度不断松动的过程。目前,我国城市化进程面临的诸多困境都与农村劳动力转移受阻相关,如城市化水平偏低、与工业化水平不相适应；大部分城市未达到最优规模；以及城市内部诸多的不和谐现象等等。这些问题的解决根本上需要理顺农村劳动力转移的渠道。
其次,本文从结构主义出发,构建了包含农业部门和非农业部分的两部门经济模型,运用经济学最基本的供给—需求理论,分析了我国农村劳动力转移的影响因素。认为农业部门的技术进步和资本存量投入是我国农村劳动力转移的重要影响因素,它保证了农业的产出,是农村劳动力得以转移的前提保障。农业部门的技术进步和农村劳动力转移之间具有双向互动关系。非农业部门产出的大小和增长速度决定了农村劳动力转移的规模和速度,由于资本和劳动之间的匹配关系,非农业部门的物质资本投入对农村劳动力的转移也有重要影响。文章的经验分析也证实了理论分析的结论。
再次,文章梳理了学者们测算劳动力转移的经济增长效应的主要方法,既有直接的从生产函数入手,也有间接的分解劳动生产率等。本文在前人的基础上采用直接的生产函数法,为了解决生产要素之间的多重共线性问题,采用了岭回归法估计出我国的农业部门与非农业部门的生产函数,求得其各自的劳动边际生产率。这是计算我国农村劳动力由从事农业生产转向非农业生产的经济增长效应的基础。与以往学者相比,本文选取更多的生产要素,对产生函数的估计也更加准确。通过计算,文章发现我国农村劳动力转移带来的整体经济增长效应在2个百分点左右,也就是说我国高速经济增长的一个重要源泉就是劳动配置的结构效应。我国农村劳动力转移也是我国经济最稳定的增长源泉。
最后,本文重点分析了劳动力转移对于我国城乡收入差距的作用。劳动力从边际生产力的产业转向边际生产力高的产业,有助于缩小两部门间的劳动力生产率的差距,进而达到缩小城乡收入差距的目的。但我国劳动力转移有其特殊性,除了户籍制度等限制以外,还有两个最重要的因素,一是农村转移劳动力中成功迁移的比重很小,二是农村转移劳动力到城镇的非农业部门就业获得的收入与城镇劳动力相比有很大的差距,他们的贡献大部分留在了城镇。正是这两个因素,使得劳动力转移缩小收入差距的效应大大折扣,甚至出现相反的作用,这点也解释了我国城乡收入差距和劳动力转移规模同时扩大的矛盾。
缩小收入差距的最重要途径就是依靠经济增长的收敛性。本文的实证分析说明我国的人均GDP的增长有助于消除城乡收入差距。单从统计上看我国的城乡居民收入差距和经济发展水平之间的关系,已经处于倒“U”库兹涅茨曲线的后半段。本文认为这种暂时的城乡收入差距的缩小是近年来政府一系列补贴农村的政策结果。我国城乡收入差距过大是个不争的事实,解决这个问题,决不能仅仅依靠市场的力量。虽然2010年的农村居民收入增幅首次超过城镇居民,但其很大程度上是政府再分配效应的结果。但一切问题的解决都离不开经济发展,持续不断的经济发展才是解决我国居民收入差距问题的根本出路。
在文章的结尾部分,给出了解决这些问题的一些政策建议。
Since the beginning of the new century, the pace of urbanization has accelerated markedly. The average annual increase is1.3percentages. According to the regular pattern of the development of urbanization, China's urbanization has entered a phase of rapid development. In the end of2010, the urban population is69079, the proportion of the total population is51.3percent, and it's more than50percent for the first time; urban construction land area is39,758square kilometers, compared with11,608square kilometers in1990, increased of242.5percent. Compared with the urbanization of land, the urbanization of the population is relatively backward. The reason is that the rural labor to urban areas is not smooth; and rural to urban migration is restricted.
This paper firstly reviews the status and history of China's rural labor force transfer in the process of rapid urbanization. Urbanization and rural labor transfer is essentially the same problem, when a large number of rural labor transfer to urban employment, on the macro performance it is the process of urbanization. From the data of the labor force transfer, the education level of the rural labor force improved continuously; income from working outside is a large proportion of total income for peasant houshold; the process of the rural labor transformation is also the process of China's household registration system constantly loosing. At present, China's urbanization process is facing many predicaments which are related to the blocked rural labor force transfer. Solution of these problems simply needs to rationalize the channels of transfer of rural labor.
Secondly, this paper constructs the economic model of two departments of the agricultural sector and non-agricultural, using the basic supply-demand theory to analyze the factors affecting China's rural labor force transfer. Technology progress and capital stock investment in the agricultural sector are important factor for China's rural labor force transfer. There is a two-way interaction between technological progress and the transfer of rural labor in the agricultural sector. The size and growth rate of non-agricultural sector output determines the scale and speed of transfer of rural labor, due to the matching relation between capital and labor, physical capital investment of non-agricultural sectors also have important implications on the transfer of rural labor. An empirical analysis of the article also confirms the conclusions of the theoretical analysis.
Again article summarizes the researches into the effect of labor transfer on economic growth. In this paper, direct method is used. In order to solve the multicollinearity problem between the factors of production, ridge regression method is used to estimate the production function of China's agricultural sector and the non-agricultural sector, then to obtain their respective the marginal productivity of labor. This is the basis for the calculation economic growth effect of China's rural labor force engaged in agricultural production transferring to non-agricultural production and. Compared with the past, the paper selects more factors of production, more accurate estimates of production functions. By calculation, the article find that the effect of overall economic growth effect of China's rural labor transfer is about two percentage points, which means that one important source of China's rapid economic growth is labor transfer effect. And this source is most stable growth in China's economy, especially in the economic downturn; the contribution of rural labor transfer effect to economic growth is larger. In199060%of the economic growth is from the rural labor force transfer effect.
Finally, the paper focuses on the role of labor transfer on the problem of the income gap between urban and rural. Labor transfer from the industry with lower marginal productivity to the high marginal productivity of industry, subserve narrow the gap of labor productivity between two departments, thus achieving the goal of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. China's labor transfer has its particularity, in addition to the household registration system and other restrictions, as well as the two most important factors. First, the transferred rural labor force, migration is a very small proportion; the second is wage of the transferred rural labor is much lower compared with their productivity. Because of these two factors, the effect of labor force transfer on narrowing the income gap considerably discount, or even the opposite effect, which also explains the contradiction of simultaneous expanding of China's urban-rural income gap and the labor transfer.
The most important way to narrow the income gap is to rely on the convergence of economic growth. This paper's empirical analysis shows that China's per capita GDP growth will help to eliminate the income gap between urban and rural areas. From a statistical point the relationship between China's income disparity and economic development level is already in the second half of the "Kuznets curve". But it is largely the result of government redistribution effect. China's income gap is too large to rely solely on market forces. However, sustained economic development is the fundamental way to solve the problem of China's income gap.
In the end, a number of policy recommendations are addressed for these issues.
本文在快速城市化的大背景下分析和回顾了我国农村劳动力转移的的现状和历程。城市化和农村劳动力转移实质上是同一问题,当大量的农村劳动力转移到城镇就业在宏观上就表现为城市化进程。从历年劳动力转移的资料看,目前我国农村劳动力的受教育水平不断提高、外出务工收入占农户全年收入比不断上升,同时从我国农村劳动力转移的历程看,农村劳动力的转移过程也是我国户籍制度不断松动的过程。目前,我国城市化进程面临的诸多困境都与农村劳动力转移受阻相关,如城市化水平偏低、与工业化水平不相适应；大部分城市未达到最优规模；以及城市内部诸多的不和谐现象等等。这些问题的解决根本上需要理顺农村劳动力转移的渠道。
其次,本文从结构主义出发,构建了包含农业部门和非农业部分的两部门经济模型,运用经济学最基本的供给—需求理论,分析了我国农村劳动力转移的影响因素。认为农业部门的技术进步和资本存量投入是我国农村劳动力转移的重要影响因素,它保证了农业的产出,是农村劳动力得以转移的前提保障。农业部门的技术进步和农村劳动力转移之间具有双向互动关系。非农业部门产出的大小和增长速度决定了农村劳动力转移的规模和速度,由于资本和劳动之间的匹配关系,非农业部门的物质资本投入对农村劳动力的转移也有重要影响。文章的经验分析也证实了理论分析的结论。
再次,文章梳理了学者们测算劳动力转移的经济增长效应的主要方法,既有直接的从生产函数入手,也有间接的分解劳动生产率等。本文在前人的基础上采用直接的生产函数法,为了解决生产要素之间的多重共线性问题,采用了岭回归法估计出我国的农业部门与非农业部门的生产函数,求得其各自的劳动边际生产率。这是计算我国农村劳动力由从事农业生产转向非农业生产的经济增长效应的基础。与以往学者相比,本文选取更多的生产要素,对产生函数的估计也更加准确。通过计算,文章发现我国农村劳动力转移带来的整体经济增长效应在2个百分点左右,也就是说我国高速经济增长的一个重要源泉就是劳动配置的结构效应。我国农村劳动力转移也是我国经济最稳定的增长源泉。
最后,本文重点分析了劳动力转移对于我国城乡收入差距的作用。劳动力从边际生产力的产业转向边际生产力高的产业,有助于缩小两部门间的劳动力生产率的差距,进而达到缩小城乡收入差距的目的。但我国劳动力转移有其特殊性,除了户籍制度等限制以外,还有两个最重要的因素,一是农村转移劳动力中成功迁移的比重很小,二是农村转移劳动力到城镇的非农业部门就业获得的收入与城镇劳动力相比有很大的差距,他们的贡献大部分留在了城镇。正是这两个因素,使得劳动力转移缩小收入差距的效应大大折扣,甚至出现相反的作用,这点也解释了我国城乡收入差距和劳动力转移规模同时扩大的矛盾。
缩小收入差距的最重要途径就是依靠经济增长的收敛性。本文的实证分析说明我国的人均GDP的增长有助于消除城乡收入差距。单从统计上看我国的城乡居民收入差距和经济发展水平之间的关系,已经处于倒“U”库兹涅茨曲线的后半段。本文认为这种暂时的城乡收入差距的缩小是近年来政府一系列补贴农村的政策结果。我国城乡收入差距过大是个不争的事实,解决这个问题,决不能仅仅依靠市场的力量。虽然2010年的农村居民收入增幅首次超过城镇居民,但其很大程度上是政府再分配效应的结果。但一切问题的解决都离不开经济发展,持续不断的经济发展才是解决我国居民收入差距问题的根本出路。
在文章的结尾部分,给出了解决这些问题的一些政策建议。
Since the beginning of the new century, the pace of urbanization has accelerated markedly. The average annual increase is1.3percentages. According to the regular pattern of the development of urbanization, China's urbanization has entered a phase of rapid development. In the end of2010, the urban population is69079, the proportion of the total population is51.3percent, and it's more than50percent for the first time; urban construction land area is39,758square kilometers, compared with11,608square kilometers in1990, increased of242.5percent. Compared with the urbanization of land, the urbanization of the population is relatively backward. The reason is that the rural labor to urban areas is not smooth; and rural to urban migration is restricted.
This paper firstly reviews the status and history of China's rural labor force transfer in the process of rapid urbanization. Urbanization and rural labor transfer is essentially the same problem, when a large number of rural labor transfer to urban employment, on the macro performance it is the process of urbanization. From the data of the labor force transfer, the education level of the rural labor force improved continuously; income from working outside is a large proportion of total income for peasant houshold; the process of the rural labor transformation is also the process of China's household registration system constantly loosing. At present, China's urbanization process is facing many predicaments which are related to the blocked rural labor force transfer. Solution of these problems simply needs to rationalize the channels of transfer of rural labor.
Secondly, this paper constructs the economic model of two departments of the agricultural sector and non-agricultural, using the basic supply-demand theory to analyze the factors affecting China's rural labor force transfer. Technology progress and capital stock investment in the agricultural sector are important factor for China's rural labor force transfer. There is a two-way interaction between technological progress and the transfer of rural labor in the agricultural sector. The size and growth rate of non-agricultural sector output determines the scale and speed of transfer of rural labor, due to the matching relation between capital and labor, physical capital investment of non-agricultural sectors also have important implications on the transfer of rural labor. An empirical analysis of the article also confirms the conclusions of the theoretical analysis.
Again article summarizes the researches into the effect of labor transfer on economic growth. In this paper, direct method is used. In order to solve the multicollinearity problem between the factors of production, ridge regression method is used to estimate the production function of China's agricultural sector and the non-agricultural sector, then to obtain their respective the marginal productivity of labor. This is the basis for the calculation economic growth effect of China's rural labor force engaged in agricultural production transferring to non-agricultural production and. Compared with the past, the paper selects more factors of production, more accurate estimates of production functions. By calculation, the article find that the effect of overall economic growth effect of China's rural labor transfer is about two percentage points, which means that one important source of China's rapid economic growth is labor transfer effect. And this source is most stable growth in China's economy, especially in the economic downturn; the contribution of rural labor transfer effect to economic growth is larger. In199060%of the economic growth is from the rural labor force transfer effect.
Finally, the paper focuses on the role of labor transfer on the problem of the income gap between urban and rural. Labor transfer from the industry with lower marginal productivity to the high marginal productivity of industry, subserve narrow the gap of labor productivity between two departments, thus achieving the goal of narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas. China's labor transfer has its particularity, in addition to the household registration system and other restrictions, as well as the two most important factors. First, the transferred rural labor force, migration is a very small proportion; the second is wage of the transferred rural labor is much lower compared with their productivity. Because of these two factors, the effect of labor force transfer on narrowing the income gap considerably discount, or even the opposite effect, which also explains the contradiction of simultaneous expanding of China's urban-rural income gap and the labor transfer.
The most important way to narrow the income gap is to rely on the convergence of economic growth. This paper's empirical analysis shows that China's per capita GDP growth will help to eliminate the income gap between urban and rural areas. From a statistical point the relationship between China's income disparity and economic development level is already in the second half of the "Kuznets curve". But it is largely the result of government redistribution effect. China's income gap is too large to rely solely on market forces. However, sustained economic development is the fundamental way to solve the problem of China's income gap.
In the end, a number of policy recommendations are addressed for these issues.
引文
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