中国国内旅游业发展及其与经济增长关系的计量分析
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摘要
旅游业一直被誉为“朝阳经济”、“无烟工业”,它作为一个具有巨大发展潜力的产业群体,在国民经济中的地位日显重要,经济影响越来越被各国政府所重视,成为推动社会经济发展的重要因素。
旅游业的发展潜力和社会、经济效果引起了党中央和国务院的重视,1998年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上,更是把旅游业与信息产业、房地产业一起确定为国民经济新的经济增长点；各级地方政府也普遍重视旅游业的发展,并给予了大力支持。
国内旅游业是指以本地旅游资源为依托,以旅游相关基础设施与服务设施为凭借,为本国常住居民在国境范围内旅游提供各种有形及无形产品以满足其旅游需要,从而获取经济效益的一系列企业的集合。
2011年12月12-14日召开的中央经济工作会议,明确提出“着力扩大内需特别是消费需求,要合理增加城乡居民特别是低收入群众收入,拓宽和开发消费领域,促进居民文化、旅游、健身、养老、家政等服务消费”。说明中央非常重视旅游业的发展,大力发展旅游业尤其是国内旅游业,符合当前经济发展形势的需要和中央的方针政策,有利于满足广大人民群众精神和物质需要,有利于拉动国民经济的发展；在当前经济形势比较严峻,内需不足、外需不振的情况下,发展国内旅游业,对于扩内需、调结构、促增长具有重要的经济意义。
产业实践的结果也证明,大力发展国内旅游业,对于拉动内需、促进国民经济增长、调整经济结构、带动相关产业发展、改善和提高城乡居民物质文化生活水平都有着十分重要的作用。因此,定量研究中国国内旅游业发展情况、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系及国内旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献,不仅具有重要的理论价值,还具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文在占有大量国内外相关文献的基础上,以中国国内旅游业作为研究对象,以相关年鉴中的数据为基础,以经济学、统计学、旅游学理论为指导,以跨学科的视角,综合运用包括VAR模型、协整检验、VECM、状态空间模型和变参数模型等计量经济研究方法及其他相关定量分析方法,深入分析1994-2010年间中国国内旅游业的发展情况,全面研究国内旅游业的季节特征、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系及国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献,为相关旅游主管部门和旅游学术界、旅游业界提供决策依据和理论支撑。全文共分六章：
第一章为全文的绪论部分,主要是为后文的展开提供铺垫,阐述研究背景、研究对象、研究目的和研究意义,阐述相关基础理论并对旅游业等基本概念进行界定,最后阐述论文研究的思路、研究的方法和论文的基本结构,为全文的研究奠定基础。
第二章以经济学和旅游学理论为指导,定量分析1994-2010年间中国国内旅游业的发展情况。定量分析国内旅游业总体发展态势,分析国内旅游业发展速度及国内旅游经济总量相当于GDP和第三产业增加值的百分比,简单分析国内旅游业对国民经济增长和第三产业发展的贡献,分析表明国内旅游业发展对国民经济增长的贡献不断提高,拉动中国国民经济增长。
通过指数体系分析国内旅游业发展的原因,结果表明国内旅游总收入的增长主要得益于旅游总人次的增加,中国国内旅游业的发展主要依靠以旅游总收入和旅游总人次为代表的接待规模的扩张,即国内旅游业的发展主要依靠外延式发展,以人均旅游花费为特征的旅游发展质量有待提高。1994-2010年,国内旅游消费水平和消费率持续上升,但仍然处于较低的水平；旅游平均消费倾向不断上升,但变动规律不符合凯恩斯关于消费倾向递减的假定。
第三章分别采用Census X-12方法和季节虚拟变量模型对国内旅游业的旅游季节指数进行测度和分析,以其反映国内旅游业的季节特征。
季节虚拟变量模型各统计量的统计性质是显著的,通过各种检验,季节虚拟变量的系数显著不为0,说明中国国内旅游业具有显著的季节性特征。中国国内旅游业各序列数据的季节因子序列图和分阶段计算的旅游季节指数表明中国国内旅游业的季节指数呈衰减趋势。
各模型分别分析的中国国内旅游总收入、人均旅游花费、旅游总人次和出游率季节指数,表明国内旅游业的发展,尤其是2008年以后的发展主要得益于以旅游总人次为代表的规模扩张,但以人均旅游花费为标志的发展质量有待提高。
第四章综合采用基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数分析等方法进行实证研究,研究表明国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,国内旅游业发展拉动经济增长,经济增长反过来又会推动国内旅游业发展。
Johansen协整检验结果充分证明国内旅游业发展和中国经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,协整方程进一步明确表明国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间存在长期动态的正相关的均衡关系。VECM的估计结果说明短期内国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的拉动作用和经济增长对中国国内旅游业发展的促进作用基本均衡,国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间主要受其长期均衡关系的影响,短期动态变化的影响相对较弱；长期来看,国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的拉动作用要大于经济增长对国内旅游业发展的促进作用。VECM中的误差修正项的系数在统计上都是显著的,表明一旦偏离其长期均衡,误差纠正机制会自动将其修正到长期均衡。
脉冲响应函数分析的结果,以曲线图和数字的形式,量化地刻画了国内旅游业发展和经济增长序列之间的长期均衡关系。除人均旅游花费在滞后2期时对经济增长新息变动的反应为负值外,其他脉冲响应函数的值均为正,表明当国内旅游序列受到一个标准差的正冲击后,经济增长序列将同向变动,而且冲击具有显著的持续效应。
第五章采用基于状态空间模型的可变参数模型估计1994-2010年间中国国内旅游的边际消费倾向,进而估算国内旅游收入乘数的值,从而以有限的信息测度国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献度。
基于状态空间模型的可变参数模型的测算结果,较好地反映了旅游业的季节变化、意外事件的冲击和经济波动的影响,与目前国内学者普遍采用的静态分析相比,能更好的反映这些影响,效果较好。同时,可变参数模型测算的中国国内旅游收入乘数显示了一种比较稳定的、动态的增长趋势,与静态分析相比,比较符合客观实际。
第六章是全文的结论,对论文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,并总结了研究结论的启示,希望能为相关旅游主管部门、研究人员和旅游企业提供理论支持和具有可操作性的借鉴,同时还提出了未来需要进一步研究的方向。
本文的创新之处主要有以下几点：第一,严格遵循计量经济方法的规范,综合运用计量经济学的研究方法,全面、深入地研究国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间的关系,并得出积极的结论；第二,引入基于状态空间模型的变参数模型,通过测度旅游收入乘数,动态研究国内旅游业发展对国民经济的贡献度；第三,构建季节虚拟变量模型计量研究国内旅游业季节特征,并对国内旅游时间序列中的季节要素进行了分解,丰富了旅游季节性特征研究的方法。
本研究以经济学、旅游学、统计学理论为指导,综合运用计量经济学有关方法和其他定量分析方法,创新性地研究了中国国内旅游业的发展情况、季节性特征以及国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间的关系、国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献,得出了一些有意义的结论和启示。但是,尽管笔者在研究过程中,竭尽全力,力求完整、完善、完美,论文中的相关研究仍然有些不足之处,需要在未来的研究中不断的探索和完善。
Tourism industry has great potential for development and always been praised as the "rising economy" and "smokeless industry". The economic status of tourism industry in the national economy is increasingly important. The economic impact of it has been paid more and more attention by the government of various countries; tourism industry has become an important factor in promoting social and economic development.
The potential for development and the socioeconomic effects of tourism industry has attracted the attention of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Tourism industry was identified as a new economic growth point along with the information industry and the real estate industry on the Central Economic Work Conference held in December1998. Local governments also generally attach importance to the development of tourism industry and give it great support.
Domestic tourism industry is a group of enterprises which supply a variety of tangible and intangible products to meet the travel needs of Chinese nationals who travel within the country by virtue of the local tourism resources, tourism-related infrastructure and service facilities in order to gain economic benefits.
Central Economic Work Conference held on12th-14th December2011, clearly put forward enlarging domestic demand, reasonably increasing the income of urban and rural residents, especially low-income people's income, and promoting residents culture, tourism, health, pension, housekeeping and other services consumption. This indicates that the central government attaches great importance to the development of the tourism industry. Vigorously developing domestic tourism industry is in line with the needs of the current economic development situation and the principles and policies of the central government, and is propitious to meet the spiritual and material needs of the people, to expand domestic demand, regulate the economic structure and promote the economic growth, and also is conducive to stimulating the development of the national economy.
Therefore, quantitative study of the development status of China's domestic tourism industry, and econometric research the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth, not only have important theoretical value, but also have very important practical significance.
On the basis of reviewing a large number of foreign and Chinese literatures, taking the domestic tourism industry as the research object, utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, based on data in related Yearbooks, by integrated use of VAR models, cointegration tests, VECM, the state space model and time-varying parameter models, this thesis in an interdisciplinary perspective lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth between1994and2010. Hope this study can provide the basis for decision making and theoretical support for the tourism administration department, academia, and tourism enterprises.
This thesis consists of six chapters. First chapter is the introduction which expounded the background, the purpose, the object and the significance of the study, introduced the basic concepts of tourism, tourism industry, tourism seasonality and tourism multiplier. In the end this chapter provided the general tactic, research methods and the basic structure of this thesis.
Chapter2quantitatively analyzed the development status of China's domestic tourism industry between1994and2010using statistical methods. This chapter quantitatively analyzed the trend of the overall development of the domestic tourism industry, the rate of development of the domestic tourism industry, the percentage of the domestic tourism economy equivalent to GDP and the tertiary industry, and the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth. The conclusion of the analysis showed that the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth continued to increase, stimulating the growth of China's national economy.
This part analyzed the development of domestic tourism industry through index system analysis. The results showed that the growth of the total income of domestic tourism was mainly due to the increase of the total number of domestic tourists, the development of domestic tourism industry relied mainly on the scale of the total number of total tourism receipts and tourist reception, the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved.
Chapter3worked over the seasonal characteristics of the domestic tourism industry, integrated using the Census X-12Method and the seasonal dummy variable model. The empirical results of these models were compared to discuss the effect of each model and verify the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry.
The statistical properties of the statistic estimated by seasonal dummy variable model are significant. The coefficients of seasonal dummy variable model were significant not0, indicated that the domestic tourism industry had significant seasonal characteristics. The tourism seasonality index of the sequence data of the domestic tourism industry showed an attenuation trend.
The seasonality index of the total income of domestic tourism, the seasonality index of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita, the seasonality index of the number of domestic tourists and the seasonality index of the rate of domestic tourism analyzed through above-mentioned models further verified the viewpoint which indicate the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved.
Chapter4empirically researched the relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and China's economic growth using a combination of Granger causality test based on VAR model, cointegration test, VECM and impulse response function analysis. The study showed existing long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth, the development of domestic tourism industry stimulated the economic growth of China and the economic growth in turn promoted the development of domestic tourism industry.
Johansen cointegration test fully proved the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth. The estimated results of VECM indicated that the long-run equilibrium between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth impacted their relationship and the short-term dynamic change was insignificant. In the long term, the effect of the development of domestic tourism industry boosting China's economic growth was greater than the economic growth on the development of domestic tourism industry. The coefficient of each ecm in every VECM was statistically significant, indicated that once deviated from its long-run equilibrium, the error correction mechanism will be automatically revised to the long-run equilibrium.
The results of the impulse response function analysis quantitatively characterized the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth sequence. Excepting the response of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita to one standard deviation of economic growth innovation on the period of lag two was negative, the other impulse response function values were positive, indicated that one standard deviation of the domestic tourism sequence would impact the economic growth to change positively, and also the impact was significantly sustained effect.
Chapter5estimated the marginal propensity to consumption of domestic tourism between1994and2010by time-varying parameter model based on the state space model, and then estimated the value of domestic tourism income multiplier.
The results estimated by time-varying parameter model better reflected the seasonal changes in the tourism industry, the impact of unexpected events and economic fluctuations than the commonly used static analysis of the current domestic scholars. At the same time, the domestic tourism income multiplier estimated by time-varying parameter model showed a relatively stable and dynamic growth trend compared with the static analysis.
Chapter6is the conclusion of the thesis. This chapter summarized the main conclusions of the paper and innovation, summarized the study revelations of the conclusions to provide theoretical supports and operable references for the relevant tourism authorities, researchers and tourism enterprises, and also put forward the direction for further research.
The innovative points of this thesis lie in the following:First, strictly following the specification of the econometric approach, this thesis lucubrated the comprehensive relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry of China and the economic growth by integrated use of econometric methods; second, this thesis studied the contribution of domestic tourism industry's development to the national economy dynamically through measuring the tourism income multiplier by the time-varying parameter model based on the state space model; the third, this thesis comprehensively researched the seasonal characteristics of China's domestic tourism industry by building seasonal dummy variable models and decomposed the seasonal factors in domestic tourism time series, deepened and enriched the content of tourism seasonality research method.
Utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, this thesis innovatively lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, by integrated use of econometric and other quantitative analysis methods, elicited some meaningful conclusions and inspiration.
However, despite the author tried his best to keep improving in the research process, made every effort to strive for complete and perfect, there are still some inadequacies which need future researches to explore and improve.
旅游业的发展潜力和社会、经济效果引起了党中央和国务院的重视,1998年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上,更是把旅游业与信息产业、房地产业一起确定为国民经济新的经济增长点；各级地方政府也普遍重视旅游业的发展,并给予了大力支持。
国内旅游业是指以本地旅游资源为依托,以旅游相关基础设施与服务设施为凭借,为本国常住居民在国境范围内旅游提供各种有形及无形产品以满足其旅游需要,从而获取经济效益的一系列企业的集合。
2011年12月12-14日召开的中央经济工作会议,明确提出“着力扩大内需特别是消费需求,要合理增加城乡居民特别是低收入群众收入,拓宽和开发消费领域,促进居民文化、旅游、健身、养老、家政等服务消费”。说明中央非常重视旅游业的发展,大力发展旅游业尤其是国内旅游业,符合当前经济发展形势的需要和中央的方针政策,有利于满足广大人民群众精神和物质需要,有利于拉动国民经济的发展；在当前经济形势比较严峻,内需不足、外需不振的情况下,发展国内旅游业,对于扩内需、调结构、促增长具有重要的经济意义。
产业实践的结果也证明,大力发展国内旅游业,对于拉动内需、促进国民经济增长、调整经济结构、带动相关产业发展、改善和提高城乡居民物质文化生活水平都有着十分重要的作用。因此,定量研究中国国内旅游业发展情况、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系及国内旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献,不仅具有重要的理论价值,还具有非常重要的现实意义。
本文在占有大量国内外相关文献的基础上,以中国国内旅游业作为研究对象,以相关年鉴中的数据为基础,以经济学、统计学、旅游学理论为指导,以跨学科的视角,综合运用包括VAR模型、协整检验、VECM、状态空间模型和变参数模型等计量经济研究方法及其他相关定量分析方法,深入分析1994-2010年间中国国内旅游业的发展情况,全面研究国内旅游业的季节特征、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系及国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献,为相关旅游主管部门和旅游学术界、旅游业界提供决策依据和理论支撑。全文共分六章：
第一章为全文的绪论部分,主要是为后文的展开提供铺垫,阐述研究背景、研究对象、研究目的和研究意义,阐述相关基础理论并对旅游业等基本概念进行界定,最后阐述论文研究的思路、研究的方法和论文的基本结构,为全文的研究奠定基础。
第二章以经济学和旅游学理论为指导,定量分析1994-2010年间中国国内旅游业的发展情况。定量分析国内旅游业总体发展态势,分析国内旅游业发展速度及国内旅游经济总量相当于GDP和第三产业增加值的百分比,简单分析国内旅游业对国民经济增长和第三产业发展的贡献,分析表明国内旅游业发展对国民经济增长的贡献不断提高,拉动中国国民经济增长。
通过指数体系分析国内旅游业发展的原因,结果表明国内旅游总收入的增长主要得益于旅游总人次的增加,中国国内旅游业的发展主要依靠以旅游总收入和旅游总人次为代表的接待规模的扩张,即国内旅游业的发展主要依靠外延式发展,以人均旅游花费为特征的旅游发展质量有待提高。1994-2010年,国内旅游消费水平和消费率持续上升,但仍然处于较低的水平；旅游平均消费倾向不断上升,但变动规律不符合凯恩斯关于消费倾向递减的假定。
第三章分别采用Census X-12方法和季节虚拟变量模型对国内旅游业的旅游季节指数进行测度和分析,以其反映国内旅游业的季节特征。
季节虚拟变量模型各统计量的统计性质是显著的,通过各种检验,季节虚拟变量的系数显著不为0,说明中国国内旅游业具有显著的季节性特征。中国国内旅游业各序列数据的季节因子序列图和分阶段计算的旅游季节指数表明中国国内旅游业的季节指数呈衰减趋势。
各模型分别分析的中国国内旅游总收入、人均旅游花费、旅游总人次和出游率季节指数,表明国内旅游业的发展,尤其是2008年以后的发展主要得益于以旅游总人次为代表的规模扩张,但以人均旅游花费为标志的发展质量有待提高。
第四章综合采用基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验、协整检验、向量误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数分析等方法进行实证研究,研究表明国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,国内旅游业发展拉动经济增长,经济增长反过来又会推动国内旅游业发展。
Johansen协整检验结果充分证明国内旅游业发展和中国经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,协整方程进一步明确表明国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间存在长期动态的正相关的均衡关系。VECM的估计结果说明短期内国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的拉动作用和经济增长对中国国内旅游业发展的促进作用基本均衡,国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间主要受其长期均衡关系的影响,短期动态变化的影响相对较弱；长期来看,国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的拉动作用要大于经济增长对国内旅游业发展的促进作用。VECM中的误差修正项的系数在统计上都是显著的,表明一旦偏离其长期均衡,误差纠正机制会自动将其修正到长期均衡。
脉冲响应函数分析的结果,以曲线图和数字的形式,量化地刻画了国内旅游业发展和经济增长序列之间的长期均衡关系。除人均旅游花费在滞后2期时对经济增长新息变动的反应为负值外,其他脉冲响应函数的值均为正,表明当国内旅游序列受到一个标准差的正冲击后,经济增长序列将同向变动,而且冲击具有显著的持续效应。
第五章采用基于状态空间模型的可变参数模型估计1994-2010年间中国国内旅游的边际消费倾向,进而估算国内旅游收入乘数的值,从而以有限的信息测度国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献度。
基于状态空间模型的可变参数模型的测算结果,较好地反映了旅游业的季节变化、意外事件的冲击和经济波动的影响,与目前国内学者普遍采用的静态分析相比,能更好的反映这些影响,效果较好。同时,可变参数模型测算的中国国内旅游收入乘数显示了一种比较稳定的、动态的增长趋势,与静态分析相比,比较符合客观实际。
第六章是全文的结论,对论文的主要结论和创新点进行了总结,并总结了研究结论的启示,希望能为相关旅游主管部门、研究人员和旅游企业提供理论支持和具有可操作性的借鉴,同时还提出了未来需要进一步研究的方向。
本文的创新之处主要有以下几点：第一,严格遵循计量经济方法的规范,综合运用计量经济学的研究方法,全面、深入地研究国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间的关系,并得出积极的结论；第二,引入基于状态空间模型的变参数模型,通过测度旅游收入乘数,动态研究国内旅游业发展对国民经济的贡献度；第三,构建季节虚拟变量模型计量研究国内旅游业季节特征,并对国内旅游时间序列中的季节要素进行了分解,丰富了旅游季节性特征研究的方法。
本研究以经济学、旅游学、统计学理论为指导,综合运用计量经济学有关方法和其他定量分析方法,创新性地研究了中国国内旅游业的发展情况、季节性特征以及国内旅游业发展与中国经济增长之间的关系、国内旅游业发展对中国经济增长的贡献,得出了一些有意义的结论和启示。但是,尽管笔者在研究过程中,竭尽全力,力求完整、完善、完美,论文中的相关研究仍然有些不足之处,需要在未来的研究中不断的探索和完善。
Tourism industry has great potential for development and always been praised as the "rising economy" and "smokeless industry". The economic status of tourism industry in the national economy is increasingly important. The economic impact of it has been paid more and more attention by the government of various countries; tourism industry has become an important factor in promoting social and economic development.
The potential for development and the socioeconomic effects of tourism industry has attracted the attention of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Tourism industry was identified as a new economic growth point along with the information industry and the real estate industry on the Central Economic Work Conference held in December1998. Local governments also generally attach importance to the development of tourism industry and give it great support.
Domestic tourism industry is a group of enterprises which supply a variety of tangible and intangible products to meet the travel needs of Chinese nationals who travel within the country by virtue of the local tourism resources, tourism-related infrastructure and service facilities in order to gain economic benefits.
Central Economic Work Conference held on12th-14th December2011, clearly put forward enlarging domestic demand, reasonably increasing the income of urban and rural residents, especially low-income people's income, and promoting residents culture, tourism, health, pension, housekeeping and other services consumption. This indicates that the central government attaches great importance to the development of the tourism industry. Vigorously developing domestic tourism industry is in line with the needs of the current economic development situation and the principles and policies of the central government, and is propitious to meet the spiritual and material needs of the people, to expand domestic demand, regulate the economic structure and promote the economic growth, and also is conducive to stimulating the development of the national economy.
Therefore, quantitative study of the development status of China's domestic tourism industry, and econometric research the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth, not only have important theoretical value, but also have very important practical significance.
On the basis of reviewing a large number of foreign and Chinese literatures, taking the domestic tourism industry as the research object, utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, based on data in related Yearbooks, by integrated use of VAR models, cointegration tests, VECM, the state space model and time-varying parameter models, this thesis in an interdisciplinary perspective lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, and the contribution of domestic tourism industry to economic growth between1994and2010. Hope this study can provide the basis for decision making and theoretical support for the tourism administration department, academia, and tourism enterprises.
This thesis consists of six chapters. First chapter is the introduction which expounded the background, the purpose, the object and the significance of the study, introduced the basic concepts of tourism, tourism industry, tourism seasonality and tourism multiplier. In the end this chapter provided the general tactic, research methods and the basic structure of this thesis.
Chapter2quantitatively analyzed the development status of China's domestic tourism industry between1994and2010using statistical methods. This chapter quantitatively analyzed the trend of the overall development of the domestic tourism industry, the rate of development of the domestic tourism industry, the percentage of the domestic tourism economy equivalent to GDP and the tertiary industry, and the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth. The conclusion of the analysis showed that the contribution of the domestic tourism industry to the national economic growth continued to increase, stimulating the growth of China's national economy.
This part analyzed the development of domestic tourism industry through index system analysis. The results showed that the growth of the total income of domestic tourism was mainly due to the increase of the total number of domestic tourists, the development of domestic tourism industry relied mainly on the scale of the total number of total tourism receipts and tourist reception, the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved.
Chapter3worked over the seasonal characteristics of the domestic tourism industry, integrated using the Census X-12Method and the seasonal dummy variable model. The empirical results of these models were compared to discuss the effect of each model and verify the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry.
The statistical properties of the statistic estimated by seasonal dummy variable model are significant. The coefficients of seasonal dummy variable model were significant not0, indicated that the domestic tourism industry had significant seasonal characteristics. The tourism seasonality index of the sequence data of the domestic tourism industry showed an attenuation trend.
The seasonality index of the total income of domestic tourism, the seasonality index of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita, the seasonality index of the number of domestic tourists and the seasonality index of the rate of domestic tourism analyzed through above-mentioned models further verified the viewpoint which indicate the development quality of the domestic tourism industry characterized by the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita needed to be improved.
Chapter4empirically researched the relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and China's economic growth using a combination of Granger causality test based on VAR model, cointegration test, VECM and impulse response function analysis. The study showed existing long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth, the development of domestic tourism industry stimulated the economic growth of China and the economic growth in turn promoted the development of domestic tourism industry.
Johansen cointegration test fully proved the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth. The estimated results of VECM indicated that the long-run equilibrium between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth impacted their relationship and the short-term dynamic change was insignificant. In the long term, the effect of the development of domestic tourism industry boosting China's economic growth was greater than the economic growth on the development of domestic tourism industry. The coefficient of each ecm in every VECM was statistically significant, indicated that once deviated from its long-run equilibrium, the error correction mechanism will be automatically revised to the long-run equilibrium.
The results of the impulse response function analysis quantitatively characterized the long-run equilibrium relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry and economic growth sequence. Excepting the response of the average domestic tourism expenditure per capita to one standard deviation of economic growth innovation on the period of lag two was negative, the other impulse response function values were positive, indicated that one standard deviation of the domestic tourism sequence would impact the economic growth to change positively, and also the impact was significantly sustained effect.
Chapter5estimated the marginal propensity to consumption of domestic tourism between1994and2010by time-varying parameter model based on the state space model, and then estimated the value of domestic tourism income multiplier.
The results estimated by time-varying parameter model better reflected the seasonal changes in the tourism industry, the impact of unexpected events and economic fluctuations than the commonly used static analysis of the current domestic scholars. At the same time, the domestic tourism income multiplier estimated by time-varying parameter model showed a relatively stable and dynamic growth trend compared with the static analysis.
Chapter6is the conclusion of the thesis. This chapter summarized the main conclusions of the paper and innovation, summarized the study revelations of the conclusions to provide theoretical supports and operable references for the relevant tourism authorities, researchers and tourism enterprises, and also put forward the direction for further research.
The innovative points of this thesis lie in the following:First, strictly following the specification of the econometric approach, this thesis lucubrated the comprehensive relationship between the development of domestic tourism industry of China and the economic growth by integrated use of econometric methods; second, this thesis studied the contribution of domestic tourism industry's development to the national economy dynamically through measuring the tourism income multiplier by the time-varying parameter model based on the state space model; the third, this thesis comprehensively researched the seasonal characteristics of China's domestic tourism industry by building seasonal dummy variable models and decomposed the seasonal factors in domestic tourism time series, deepened and enriched the content of tourism seasonality research method.
Utilizing the theoretical frameworks of economics, statistics and tourism theory, this thesis innovatively lucubrated the development status of domestic tourism industry, the seasonal characteristics of domestic tourism industry, the cointegration relationship between the development of the domestic tourism industry and the economic growth, by integrated use of econometric and other quantitative analysis methods, elicited some meaningful conclusions and inspiration.
However, despite the author tried his best to keep improving in the research process, made every effort to strive for complete and perfect, there are still some inadequacies which need future researches to explore and improve.
引文
①国内旅游总收入是一个产值概念,而不是增加值概念,只有扣除中间投入后的新增产值才是当年GDP的构成部分,因而此处用相当于GDP的0.5%而不是占GDP的0.5%,下同。
②详细数据分析请参加第二章相关内容。
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③有关旅游类型的划分及国内旅游与入境旅游的界定详见本章1.2.4.1中的相关分析。
④国家外汇管理局.中国外汇储备——2011年[EB/OL]. http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/tjsj/tjsj_detail.jsp?ID=110400000000000000,22&id=5, 2012-1-20.
⑤有关国内旅游、国内旅游者、国内旅游业的界定详见本章1.2.4中的相关内容。
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③ World Tourism Organization,世界旅游组织。
①关于中国国内旅游业季节性特征的研究请见第三章的相关分析。
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②详细数据分析请参加第二章相关内容。
③宁泽群.旅游经济、产业与政策[M].北京：中国旅游出版社,2006：2.
②田里.旅游经济学[M].第二版.北京：高等教育出版社,2006：34-38.
③有关旅游类型的划分及国内旅游与入境旅游的界定详见本章1.2.4.1中的相关分析。
④国家外汇管理局.中国外汇储备——2011年[EB/OL]. http://www.safe.gov.cn/model_safe/tjsj/tjsj_detail.jsp?ID=110400000000000000,22&id=5, 2012-1-20.
⑤有关国内旅游、国内旅游者、国内旅游业的界定详见本章1.2.4中的相关内容。
①戴维斯(Davidson, T. L.)何谓旅游：它真的是产业吗?[A].瑟厄波德(Theobald, W. F.)全球旅游新论[C].北京：中国旅游出版社,2001：23-29.
②详细分析请参见第二章相关分析。
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①库珀(Cooper, C.)等.旅游学——原理与实践[M].第2版.北京：高等教育出版社,2004：150.
②厉新建,张辉.旅游经济学——理论与发展[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2002：308-309.
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②瑟厄波德(Theobald, W. F.)旅游的含义、范畴和度量[A].瑟厄波德(Theobald, W. F.)全球旅游新论[C].北京：中国旅游出版社,2001：13.
③瑟厄波德(Theobald, W. F.)旅游的含义、范畴和度量[A].瑟厄波德(Theobald, W. F.)全球旅游新论[C].北京：中国旅游出版社,2001：13.
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③利克里什,詹金斯(Likorish, L. J., Jenkins, C. L.)旅游学通论[M].北京：中国旅游出版社,2002：40.
①作者原文如此,疑为国内生产总值,作者应该是想表达为“国内旅游收入中扣除中间投入后的增加值部分是国内生产总值的组成部分”。
②罗明义.旅游经济学原理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2004：214.
③中华人民共和国国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴2004[Z].北京：中国旅游出版社,2004：119-120.
④因为旅游,尤其是国内旅游,往往涉及到一定时期(年、季度或月)内多次出游现象,平均每一人次的旅游花费易于统计核算,而平均每人在一定时期内旅游消费的统计核算则要困难的多,(?)本上不可行。
①国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴2004.北京：中国旅游出版社,2004：119-120.
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①田里.旅游经济学(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2006：84.
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①高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2010：28.
①高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：30-33.
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②罗明义.旅游经济学原理[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2004：1.
③田里.旅游经济学(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2006：2.
②高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：249-253.
③张晓峒Eviews使用指南与案例[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2007：114.
①高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：264.
②张晓峒Eviews使用指南与案例[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2007：118.
③高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：276.
①高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：145.
①恩德斯(Enders, W.)应用计量经济学：时间序列分析[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2006：320.
②高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006：272.
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①详细分析见第二章。
②伊特韦尔,米尔盖特,纽曼(Eatwell, J., Milgate, M., Newman, P.)新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典(第三卷)[Z].北京：经济科学出版社,1996：608.
③ World Tourism Organization,世界旅游组织。
①关于中国国内旅游业季节性特征的研究请见第三章的相关分析。
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