叶海卡·德洛尔的政策思想研究
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摘要
现代政策科学是西方的产物,从政策科学诞生之日起,它就与以色列学者叶海卡·德洛尔的名字紧密联系在一起。叶海卡·德洛尔是是继拉斯韦尔之后的“第二代公共政策学家”,被誉为“政策科学领域的泰斗”,政策科学的创始人之一。然而中国学界对其思想的系统研究凤毛麟角,这可能是由于“与其说他是政治学家,毋宁说是行政学家或系统专家更为恰当”①,而行政学的发展才不过百年多的历史。有人认为德洛尔的学问是“超学问”,他的文章相当“晦涩”难懂②。的确,德洛尔的学术品性非同一般,在著作中他喜欢用统治者(ruler)这样的被现代民主政治抛弃的词汇；他对“可持续发展”概念进行了无情的批驳,认为这个概念抑制了人类的发展；他关注十字路口的关键性抉择,强调对“可选择的未来”进行慎思、感知与憧憬,主张统治者应克服“现状的暴政”,与历史进行审慎的“模糊赌博”,并认为“与历史赌博”,虽令人不快,却合乎人类处境。其政策思想中的“权力中心论”、“精英治国论”更是让我们仿佛回到了柏拉图时代,我们在他的思想里看到了柏拉图的亡灵。德洛尔要求统治者要有坚定不移地“编织未来”的能力与意愿,在急剧变革的时代乐于学习与改变思维惯性,打破政策旧有的范式,复兴政治,激活真正的民主。
德洛尔发起了“政策科学的革命”,提出了政策科学的新范式,意识到了“管理革命”、“技术统治”、“能人统治”、“专家政治”这些代表着科学统治的危险形式,主张政策科学的范式创新,认清了政策科学对政治的意涵,呼吁建立知识和权力之间的新的共生关系,并防范政策科学在道义上被滥用的风险。
德洛尔关注“政府中枢决策系统”政策制定能力的改进。他认为,以前政府中枢决策系统被当作“黑箱”来看待,而他要打破以往学术研究的藩篱,主要研究中央政府的高层政策制定。德洛尔看到了变动不居的社会越来越高的政策诉求与政府固有能力赤字之间的矛盾,视逆境中的政策制定为内在的、动态的、相互作用的社会过程,从统治内生与外生的两个方面考查逆境,以人类应付不确定状况的无能与模糊赌博之间存在的鸿沟来解释政策制定中的重大缺陷。他为克服逆境提供了一套可操作性的方案,构造了一整套概念、范畴与方法论。
全球转型期人类的处境可简单地概括为“社会没有做好准备,治理没有精良的装备”。我们的时代以非同寻常的快速的非线性变化为主要的特征,这些变化对塑造未来的抉择形成了严峻的挑战。人类和国家不再面对一个明确的十字路口,步入未来的轨迹深受政府作为或不作为的影响,这不是任何其他的社会组织(市场和公民社会)能够或应该做的抉择。当前的治理尚没有为编织美好的未来做好准备,因此,为提升治理能力,影响未来朝向希冀的方向发展,根本性的治理重塑成为一种宿命式的必然。
政策顾问是政策的“反光镜”,统治者与政策顾问的关系属于政治权力的核心构成,二者之间的关系几乎与人类政治文明一样长久。五千年的历史证明,这是一个刚性或弹性有限的结构。在现代,各种政府首脑咨询制度、咨询关系的不稳定性,强化了德洛尔的臆测,即结构性的缺陷内在地嵌入于两者的关系之中,统治者-顾问关系可以作为阐释统治无能基本理由的典型范例,是人类演化阶段中的一个先天的制度产物。德洛尔对统治者局限性及政策顾问与统治者种种互动的关系进行了揭示。这其中包括：现代政策顾问在提升政府首脑决策品质的过程中,扮演了何种角色,发挥了何种功能?在向执政者建言献策的过程中,面临着哪些困境与冲突?政策顾问系统应如何进行重新设计?德洛尔以多个国家与组织的国际顾问经历,以其行动中的判断与思考为我们提供了各种规范性的政策建议,他的眼光是全球性的。
德洛尔意识到21世纪量子跃迁时代,政府进行结构性调整与创造性破坏时愿景式政治领导的必要性所在。由于最小国家理论及新自由主义对国家的功能观都缺乏对社会需求的理解,统治者在必要的价值观的变迁、各种动员的努力、维护与重构社会认同方面、弥补大众心理创伤方面的重要作用,使得21世纪的愿景式政治领导成为一种值得研究的功能现象。
德洛尔关注治国安邦之技、管理天下之道,他热爱中国,喜欢引用《论语》里的箴言,他的政策思想是丰富多元的,值得任何政策科学领域的学者深入探究。
本文的写作思路与“着眼点”包括如下几个方面：
一、介绍选题的背景与理论现实价值；国内外有关德洛尔政策思想的研究现状；本文的研究方法、研究范围、研究重点以及研究尝试取得的突破；
二、结合政策科学发展的国际背景,从学科史的维度梳理德洛尔政策思想的发展脉络,从宏观上对其思想进行全面把握。
三、在现有的资料范围内,系统介绍德洛尔的政策思想内容,首先,以《政策科学构想》为主体,从政策科学的革命开始,了解政策学科产生的原因背景、政策科学发展中的障碍,政策科学的14个新范式以及政策科学的政治及科学的意涵。其次,以《公共政策的重新审查》及《逆境中的政策制定》为主体,介绍德洛尔的政策制定思想,包括德洛尔的规范最优模型与逆境中的政策制定方法论。第三,以《治理能力——罗马俱乐部的报告》为主体,介绍德洛尔的治理发展观,包括治理重塑的原因、机遇与挑战、政治文化的障碍；治理重塑的要求、优质治理的特征建模；治理重塑的路径选择,包括重新设计的进路、治理的道德层面(包括人类利益的培育和善与恶的较量)、治理的效能层面(包括公共事务的政策启蒙、统治与治理、再造治理结构、私权的治理、果敢的全球治理、扩大监督、危机治理、增强高质量政府的自主性)以及治理的未来层面(包括重塑治理精英,强化政策反思,胜任模糊赌博,提升政府中枢系统的决策能力)。这一部分在论文在占主体地位,鉴于目前有关德洛尔的著作《治理能力——罗马俱乐部的报告》介绍太少,笔者试图在本论文中全面呈现德洛尔其思想的主体内容。第四,以德洛尔的《愿景式政治领导》及《21世纪新型政治领导》为主体,加之德洛尔的部分学术论文,介绍了德洛尔的愿景领导理论,提出了愿景式政治领导理论构建的必要性。
四、第六章以德洛尔的著述和论文为载体,首先主要挖掘德洛尔政策思想中最具特色的理论展开介绍,包括模糊赌博思想、政策顾问理论、宏观政策分析理论、德洛尔对“可持续发展观”的否定。考虑到治理理论在前面章节中已作过重点介绍,故在此部分不作重复性介绍。其次,分析德洛尔政策思想的来源,包括哪些人物对他的思想产生了重大的影响,犹太民族血统及以色列政治对他产生了何种影响,德洛尔在不同国家以及全球组织中政策咨询工作对他的影响等。第三,重点从德洛尔政策思想的方法论、知识与权力的共生关系、精英治理与民主政治、德洛尔的未来观、比较与历史的方法方面对德洛尔的思想进行了评价,与其说是评价,不如说是对国内外学者就德洛尔政策思想评价的一种回应。
五、第七章主要分析了德洛尔政策思想对当下中国的价值所在。本文从学科发展、政策困境以及治理三个角度阐释了德洛尔政策思想对中国的适用性。从学科角度看,德洛尔政策思想中有关政策科学的教学与研究、政策科学的组织化以及政策科学发展的进一步突破上都对中国的政策科学教学与研究有重要的启示意义；从政策困境的角度看,德洛尔构建的政策困境理论是对当前西方经济学的“政府失灵论”掷地有声的回击,为我们认识和正确看待困境提供了更加理性的思考维度；从治理角度看,我们从其治理思想中对21世纪治理的思维特征、治理的主体、治理的内容、治理与民主政治的关系以及治理的层次上,得到了耳目一新的治理思路。最后,德洛尔为中国政府面临的政策困境与治理难题给出了中肯的建言。
Modern Policy Sciences is the product of the western world. Since its birth it has been closely related with Yehezkel Dror who is from Israel. Yehezkel Dror is "the second generation policy scientist" after Harold Lasswell and hailed as a "leading authority" in the field of policy sciences, the founder of policy sciences. However, the comprehensive analysis of Dror's policy thoughts among Chinese scholars is so rare, as a result from the fact that "he is more of an administrative or systems experts than a politician" While the history of public administration is but for120years or so. Some argues that Dror's thoughts is super-knowledge. His articles are obscure and very hard to understand. In fact, Dror's academic character is very distinctive. He likes to use the word "ruler" to mean the governor in modern democracy, and he heartlessly criticizes and rejects the concept of "sustainable development" which we hold truly. He believes that it inhibit the advancement of our humanity and should not limit our human within the mental cage of "sustainable development".
Dror concerns the critical choice in the crossroad, and emphasizes the deliberate thinking, feeling and dreaming the "alternative future". He claims that the ruler should overcome the "the tyranny of status quo", and believes that fuzzy gamble with history is desirable though unpleasant. The kernel of Dror's thoughts is "power-concentrated", and "meritocracy" which draw us back in Plato times and we seem to feel the dead soul of Plato in his thoughts. Dror requires the rulers to have the capabilities and will to resolutely weave the future, take delight in learning and change minds in the rapidly changing world, and break the old paradigm, instead of being subject to the change of the mass mood and the short election period, constantly shutting from many kinds of spin-doctoring.
Dror initiates " the revolution of policy sciences". He puts forth the new paradigm of policy sciences and recognizes the danger of "technocracy","meritocracy" and "technopolis". He argues the paradigm innovation of policy sciences, and identifies the implication of policy sciences to politics. He calls for the new relationship between knowledge and power, and guard against the risk of sciences being abused morally.
Dror cares improving the Central Minds of government, which was taken as a black box, and now he wants to remove the barrier to previous academic studies and mainly discuss the policymaking in the high-level government. Dror sees the conflict between the increasing policy demands and the inherent capacities of government. He takes the adversity as an inherent, dynamic and interactive social process, and he advocates examining the adversity from two aspects, that is, endogenous and exogenous of rulings. He attributes the major weakness of policymaking to the gap between the incapacities of human when facing uncertainties and the fuzzy gambling decisions. He designs a set of operative concepts, categories and methodologies to overcome the adversity.
The situation of humanity in the face of global transformations can be summarized in two sentences:Societies are unprepared; Governance is unequipped. Our epoch is distinguished by unusually rapid non-liner change which challenged the choices shaping our future. Our humanity and states are no longer face a certain crossroad, and the trajectory into the future is deeply influenced by government performance or non-performance. The choices can not be made by any other social mechanism. Current governance is not equipped with weaving the good future. Therefore, radical governance redesign is a deterministic necessity to improve the governance capacity and influence the future in the desired direction.
Adviser is the mirror of the policy. Rulers and advisers belong to the ur-core-components of human governance, as developed some5,000years ago or perhaps earlier. Key features of relations between rulers and advisers have not changed very much during that period. This is a rigid relationship with limited plasticity. The limited variety of contemporary arrangements for advising heads of governments, the instability of such advisory relations and the serious difficulties faced by all presently known options for structuring advisory supports for top decision-makers, further reinforce the conjecture that structural weaknesses are inherent in advisory relations with rulers. Ruler-adviser relations can serve as a paradigmatic illustration of fundamental reasons for incapacity to govern, which are congenital to institutions of governance as human artifacts in their present phase of evolution. Dror reveals that the limits of rulers and their various interactive relationships between rulers and advisers including what kind of role and function the modern advisers can play in improving the qualities of top decision-makers, which dilemma and conflict the modern advisers faced in advising the rulers, the way the advising systems redesign. Dror gives us many prescriptions with his judgment and thinking in action as an international adviser in many countries and international organizations. Therefore, his sight is professional and worldwide.
Dror realizes the necessities of visionary leadership in the21st Quantum age when government is undergoing the structural adjustment and creative destruction. Because of the least understanding of the social needs reflected in the minimum state theory and neoliberalism on the concept of state, it is more essential to make the visionary leadership worth studying considering the ruler plays a very important role in the value change, political motivation, establishing the social identity and alleviating the mass psychological trauma.
Dror concentrates on the statecrafts and he loves China. He likes to quote The Analects of Confucius. His policy thoughts are varied and abundant which worth our devotion to study.
The key points of the article are as follows:
The preface is to introduce the background and significance of the research. To overview the research situations home and abroad on Dror's policy thoughts. To ascertain the methods, scope, main contents of the research, and attempt to break through in the research.
Chapter1is to clarify the route that the Dror's policy thoughts developed from the historical perspective combined with the international background in which policy sciences developed, and it is convenient for us to grasp his thoughts in the larger sense.
Chapter2to Chapter5is a comprehensive introduction of Dror's policy thoughts. First, to know of the background of the emergence of policy sciences, the barrier to policy sciences, the new paradigm of policy sciences and the implication of policy sciences from the revolution of policy sciences based on "Design of Policy Sciences". Second, to present Dror's thoughts of policymaking based on "Public Policymaking Reexamined" and "Policymaking under Adversity" which include Dror's Optimal Model and methodology of policymaking under adversity. Third, to recommend Dror's governance theory on the basis of "The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome" consisting of the cause of redesign of governance, the opportunities and challenge facing governance, the obstacles of political cultures, the requirements of reshaping of governance, a 'Feature Model' of high-quality governance, the resolution of governance which include approaches to redesign, fostering raison d'humanite, virtues against vices, empowering the people with public affairs enlightenment, on rulership, deepening policy reflections, qualifying in 'fuzzy-gambling', improving the central minds of government, restructuring governance architecture, governing private power, making global governance more resolute, augmenting oversight, gearing governance for crises, and strengthening the autonomy of high-quality government. Since this part is the main body of the article, and the introduction in domestic research is little, then the article attempts to present the ideas at length. Fourth, to bring in Dror's leadership theories in accordance with "visionary political leadership" and "The New Ruler:Leadership for the21st Century " and plus with some articles of Dror's and put forth the necessities of establishing the theory of visionary leadership.
Chapter6mainly digs the most distinctive policy thoughts, including fuzzy-gambling thoughts, policy advisers theories, grand policy thoughts and Dror's rejection of "sustainable development". Considering the foregoing introduction of governance theories, there is no need to give more details although it is one of the unique part of Dror's policy thoughts. Then this part analyses the resources that Dror's thoughts derived from, including someone who greatly influenced his policy thoughts, the impact of his Jewish descent and Israeli politics on his policy thoughts, and his rich experiences as policy adviser in various countries and international organizations. Next, to make some comments on Dror's policy thoughts involving his prescriptive methodologies of policy sciences, the symbiotic relationship between knowledge and power, elitism governance and democracy, Dror's view on future, comparative and historical methods etc. It is not so much remarks on Dror's policy thoughts as responses to the former remarks on Dror's some books and articles.
Chapter7mainly explores the values of Dror's policy thoughts to China today. To explain the application of Dror's policy thoughts to China from the perspectives of disciplinary development, policy predicaments, and governance. From the disciplinary development, Dror's policy thoughts give us important enlightenment in the teaching and research, institutional policy sciences and the further breakthrough of development of policy sciences. As to the policy predicaments, Dror's adversity view is a forceful attack on "Government Failure Theory" and provides us a more rational thinking for understanding the adversity. From the perspective of governance, we can get fresh and new ideas on governance in the mental traits, bodies, contents, levels and the relations with politics and democracy in the21st century. In the end, the articles provides Dror's advice on the dilemma and problems facing our China government.
德洛尔发起了“政策科学的革命”,提出了政策科学的新范式,意识到了“管理革命”、“技术统治”、“能人统治”、“专家政治”这些代表着科学统治的危险形式,主张政策科学的范式创新,认清了政策科学对政治的意涵,呼吁建立知识和权力之间的新的共生关系,并防范政策科学在道义上被滥用的风险。
德洛尔关注“政府中枢决策系统”政策制定能力的改进。他认为,以前政府中枢决策系统被当作“黑箱”来看待,而他要打破以往学术研究的藩篱,主要研究中央政府的高层政策制定。德洛尔看到了变动不居的社会越来越高的政策诉求与政府固有能力赤字之间的矛盾,视逆境中的政策制定为内在的、动态的、相互作用的社会过程,从统治内生与外生的两个方面考查逆境,以人类应付不确定状况的无能与模糊赌博之间存在的鸿沟来解释政策制定中的重大缺陷。他为克服逆境提供了一套可操作性的方案,构造了一整套概念、范畴与方法论。
全球转型期人类的处境可简单地概括为“社会没有做好准备,治理没有精良的装备”。我们的时代以非同寻常的快速的非线性变化为主要的特征,这些变化对塑造未来的抉择形成了严峻的挑战。人类和国家不再面对一个明确的十字路口,步入未来的轨迹深受政府作为或不作为的影响,这不是任何其他的社会组织(市场和公民社会)能够或应该做的抉择。当前的治理尚没有为编织美好的未来做好准备,因此,为提升治理能力,影响未来朝向希冀的方向发展,根本性的治理重塑成为一种宿命式的必然。
政策顾问是政策的“反光镜”,统治者与政策顾问的关系属于政治权力的核心构成,二者之间的关系几乎与人类政治文明一样长久。五千年的历史证明,这是一个刚性或弹性有限的结构。在现代,各种政府首脑咨询制度、咨询关系的不稳定性,强化了德洛尔的臆测,即结构性的缺陷内在地嵌入于两者的关系之中,统治者-顾问关系可以作为阐释统治无能基本理由的典型范例,是人类演化阶段中的一个先天的制度产物。德洛尔对统治者局限性及政策顾问与统治者种种互动的关系进行了揭示。这其中包括：现代政策顾问在提升政府首脑决策品质的过程中,扮演了何种角色,发挥了何种功能?在向执政者建言献策的过程中,面临着哪些困境与冲突?政策顾问系统应如何进行重新设计?德洛尔以多个国家与组织的国际顾问经历,以其行动中的判断与思考为我们提供了各种规范性的政策建议,他的眼光是全球性的。
德洛尔意识到21世纪量子跃迁时代,政府进行结构性调整与创造性破坏时愿景式政治领导的必要性所在。由于最小国家理论及新自由主义对国家的功能观都缺乏对社会需求的理解,统治者在必要的价值观的变迁、各种动员的努力、维护与重构社会认同方面、弥补大众心理创伤方面的重要作用,使得21世纪的愿景式政治领导成为一种值得研究的功能现象。
德洛尔关注治国安邦之技、管理天下之道,他热爱中国,喜欢引用《论语》里的箴言,他的政策思想是丰富多元的,值得任何政策科学领域的学者深入探究。
本文的写作思路与“着眼点”包括如下几个方面：
一、介绍选题的背景与理论现实价值；国内外有关德洛尔政策思想的研究现状；本文的研究方法、研究范围、研究重点以及研究尝试取得的突破；
二、结合政策科学发展的国际背景,从学科史的维度梳理德洛尔政策思想的发展脉络,从宏观上对其思想进行全面把握。
三、在现有的资料范围内,系统介绍德洛尔的政策思想内容,首先,以《政策科学构想》为主体,从政策科学的革命开始,了解政策学科产生的原因背景、政策科学发展中的障碍,政策科学的14个新范式以及政策科学的政治及科学的意涵。其次,以《公共政策的重新审查》及《逆境中的政策制定》为主体,介绍德洛尔的政策制定思想,包括德洛尔的规范最优模型与逆境中的政策制定方法论。第三,以《治理能力——罗马俱乐部的报告》为主体,介绍德洛尔的治理发展观,包括治理重塑的原因、机遇与挑战、政治文化的障碍；治理重塑的要求、优质治理的特征建模；治理重塑的路径选择,包括重新设计的进路、治理的道德层面(包括人类利益的培育和善与恶的较量)、治理的效能层面(包括公共事务的政策启蒙、统治与治理、再造治理结构、私权的治理、果敢的全球治理、扩大监督、危机治理、增强高质量政府的自主性)以及治理的未来层面(包括重塑治理精英,强化政策反思,胜任模糊赌博,提升政府中枢系统的决策能力)。这一部分在论文在占主体地位,鉴于目前有关德洛尔的著作《治理能力——罗马俱乐部的报告》介绍太少,笔者试图在本论文中全面呈现德洛尔其思想的主体内容。第四,以德洛尔的《愿景式政治领导》及《21世纪新型政治领导》为主体,加之德洛尔的部分学术论文,介绍了德洛尔的愿景领导理论,提出了愿景式政治领导理论构建的必要性。
四、第六章以德洛尔的著述和论文为载体,首先主要挖掘德洛尔政策思想中最具特色的理论展开介绍,包括模糊赌博思想、政策顾问理论、宏观政策分析理论、德洛尔对“可持续发展观”的否定。考虑到治理理论在前面章节中已作过重点介绍,故在此部分不作重复性介绍。其次,分析德洛尔政策思想的来源,包括哪些人物对他的思想产生了重大的影响,犹太民族血统及以色列政治对他产生了何种影响,德洛尔在不同国家以及全球组织中政策咨询工作对他的影响等。第三,重点从德洛尔政策思想的方法论、知识与权力的共生关系、精英治理与民主政治、德洛尔的未来观、比较与历史的方法方面对德洛尔的思想进行了评价,与其说是评价,不如说是对国内外学者就德洛尔政策思想评价的一种回应。
五、第七章主要分析了德洛尔政策思想对当下中国的价值所在。本文从学科发展、政策困境以及治理三个角度阐释了德洛尔政策思想对中国的适用性。从学科角度看,德洛尔政策思想中有关政策科学的教学与研究、政策科学的组织化以及政策科学发展的进一步突破上都对中国的政策科学教学与研究有重要的启示意义；从政策困境的角度看,德洛尔构建的政策困境理论是对当前西方经济学的“政府失灵论”掷地有声的回击,为我们认识和正确看待困境提供了更加理性的思考维度；从治理角度看,我们从其治理思想中对21世纪治理的思维特征、治理的主体、治理的内容、治理与民主政治的关系以及治理的层次上,得到了耳目一新的治理思路。最后,德洛尔为中国政府面临的政策困境与治理难题给出了中肯的建言。
Modern Policy Sciences is the product of the western world. Since its birth it has been closely related with Yehezkel Dror who is from Israel. Yehezkel Dror is "the second generation policy scientist" after Harold Lasswell and hailed as a "leading authority" in the field of policy sciences, the founder of policy sciences. However, the comprehensive analysis of Dror's policy thoughts among Chinese scholars is so rare, as a result from the fact that "he is more of an administrative or systems experts than a politician" While the history of public administration is but for120years or so. Some argues that Dror's thoughts is super-knowledge. His articles are obscure and very hard to understand. In fact, Dror's academic character is very distinctive. He likes to use the word "ruler" to mean the governor in modern democracy, and he heartlessly criticizes and rejects the concept of "sustainable development" which we hold truly. He believes that it inhibit the advancement of our humanity and should not limit our human within the mental cage of "sustainable development".
Dror concerns the critical choice in the crossroad, and emphasizes the deliberate thinking, feeling and dreaming the "alternative future". He claims that the ruler should overcome the "the tyranny of status quo", and believes that fuzzy gamble with history is desirable though unpleasant. The kernel of Dror's thoughts is "power-concentrated", and "meritocracy" which draw us back in Plato times and we seem to feel the dead soul of Plato in his thoughts. Dror requires the rulers to have the capabilities and will to resolutely weave the future, take delight in learning and change minds in the rapidly changing world, and break the old paradigm, instead of being subject to the change of the mass mood and the short election period, constantly shutting from many kinds of spin-doctoring.
Dror initiates " the revolution of policy sciences". He puts forth the new paradigm of policy sciences and recognizes the danger of "technocracy","meritocracy" and "technopolis". He argues the paradigm innovation of policy sciences, and identifies the implication of policy sciences to politics. He calls for the new relationship between knowledge and power, and guard against the risk of sciences being abused morally.
Dror cares improving the Central Minds of government, which was taken as a black box, and now he wants to remove the barrier to previous academic studies and mainly discuss the policymaking in the high-level government. Dror sees the conflict between the increasing policy demands and the inherent capacities of government. He takes the adversity as an inherent, dynamic and interactive social process, and he advocates examining the adversity from two aspects, that is, endogenous and exogenous of rulings. He attributes the major weakness of policymaking to the gap between the incapacities of human when facing uncertainties and the fuzzy gambling decisions. He designs a set of operative concepts, categories and methodologies to overcome the adversity.
The situation of humanity in the face of global transformations can be summarized in two sentences:Societies are unprepared; Governance is unequipped. Our epoch is distinguished by unusually rapid non-liner change which challenged the choices shaping our future. Our humanity and states are no longer face a certain crossroad, and the trajectory into the future is deeply influenced by government performance or non-performance. The choices can not be made by any other social mechanism. Current governance is not equipped with weaving the good future. Therefore, radical governance redesign is a deterministic necessity to improve the governance capacity and influence the future in the desired direction.
Adviser is the mirror of the policy. Rulers and advisers belong to the ur-core-components of human governance, as developed some5,000years ago or perhaps earlier. Key features of relations between rulers and advisers have not changed very much during that period. This is a rigid relationship with limited plasticity. The limited variety of contemporary arrangements for advising heads of governments, the instability of such advisory relations and the serious difficulties faced by all presently known options for structuring advisory supports for top decision-makers, further reinforce the conjecture that structural weaknesses are inherent in advisory relations with rulers. Ruler-adviser relations can serve as a paradigmatic illustration of fundamental reasons for incapacity to govern, which are congenital to institutions of governance as human artifacts in their present phase of evolution. Dror reveals that the limits of rulers and their various interactive relationships between rulers and advisers including what kind of role and function the modern advisers can play in improving the qualities of top decision-makers, which dilemma and conflict the modern advisers faced in advising the rulers, the way the advising systems redesign. Dror gives us many prescriptions with his judgment and thinking in action as an international adviser in many countries and international organizations. Therefore, his sight is professional and worldwide.
Dror realizes the necessities of visionary leadership in the21st Quantum age when government is undergoing the structural adjustment and creative destruction. Because of the least understanding of the social needs reflected in the minimum state theory and neoliberalism on the concept of state, it is more essential to make the visionary leadership worth studying considering the ruler plays a very important role in the value change, political motivation, establishing the social identity and alleviating the mass psychological trauma.
Dror concentrates on the statecrafts and he loves China. He likes to quote The Analects of Confucius. His policy thoughts are varied and abundant which worth our devotion to study.
The key points of the article are as follows:
The preface is to introduce the background and significance of the research. To overview the research situations home and abroad on Dror's policy thoughts. To ascertain the methods, scope, main contents of the research, and attempt to break through in the research.
Chapter1is to clarify the route that the Dror's policy thoughts developed from the historical perspective combined with the international background in which policy sciences developed, and it is convenient for us to grasp his thoughts in the larger sense.
Chapter2to Chapter5is a comprehensive introduction of Dror's policy thoughts. First, to know of the background of the emergence of policy sciences, the barrier to policy sciences, the new paradigm of policy sciences and the implication of policy sciences from the revolution of policy sciences based on "Design of Policy Sciences". Second, to present Dror's thoughts of policymaking based on "Public Policymaking Reexamined" and "Policymaking under Adversity" which include Dror's Optimal Model and methodology of policymaking under adversity. Third, to recommend Dror's governance theory on the basis of "The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome" consisting of the cause of redesign of governance, the opportunities and challenge facing governance, the obstacles of political cultures, the requirements of reshaping of governance, a 'Feature Model' of high-quality governance, the resolution of governance which include approaches to redesign, fostering raison d'humanite, virtues against vices, empowering the people with public affairs enlightenment, on rulership, deepening policy reflections, qualifying in 'fuzzy-gambling', improving the central minds of government, restructuring governance architecture, governing private power, making global governance more resolute, augmenting oversight, gearing governance for crises, and strengthening the autonomy of high-quality government. Since this part is the main body of the article, and the introduction in domestic research is little, then the article attempts to present the ideas at length. Fourth, to bring in Dror's leadership theories in accordance with "visionary political leadership" and "The New Ruler:Leadership for the21st Century " and plus with some articles of Dror's and put forth the necessities of establishing the theory of visionary leadership.
Chapter6mainly digs the most distinctive policy thoughts, including fuzzy-gambling thoughts, policy advisers theories, grand policy thoughts and Dror's rejection of "sustainable development". Considering the foregoing introduction of governance theories, there is no need to give more details although it is one of the unique part of Dror's policy thoughts. Then this part analyses the resources that Dror's thoughts derived from, including someone who greatly influenced his policy thoughts, the impact of his Jewish descent and Israeli politics on his policy thoughts, and his rich experiences as policy adviser in various countries and international organizations. Next, to make some comments on Dror's policy thoughts involving his prescriptive methodologies of policy sciences, the symbiotic relationship between knowledge and power, elitism governance and democracy, Dror's view on future, comparative and historical methods etc. It is not so much remarks on Dror's policy thoughts as responses to the former remarks on Dror's some books and articles.
Chapter7mainly explores the values of Dror's policy thoughts to China today. To explain the application of Dror's policy thoughts to China from the perspectives of disciplinary development, policy predicaments, and governance. From the disciplinary development, Dror's policy thoughts give us important enlightenment in the teaching and research, institutional policy sciences and the further breakthrough of development of policy sciences. As to the policy predicaments, Dror's adversity view is a forceful attack on "Government Failure Theory" and provides us a more rational thinking for understanding the adversity. From the perspective of governance, we can get fresh and new ideas on governance in the mental traits, bodies, contents, levels and the relations with politics and democracy in the21st century. In the end, the articles provides Dror's advice on the dilemma and problems facing our China government.
引文
①[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44页。
②[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44页。
①Public Policymaking Reexamine (San Francisco:Chandler,1968,1983 Transaction Books enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, Chinese and Thai; publication in Japanese forthcoming]
②Design For Policy Sciences (New York:Elsevier,1971) [Also published in Hebrew, Italian and Japanese].
③Ventures in Policy Sciences:Concepts and Applications. Yehezkel Dror,, American Elsevier, New York (1971).
④Crazy States:A Counterconventional Strategic Issue (Lexington:Heath,1971; 1980 Kraus Reprints enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, German, and Japanese].
⑤Policymaking Under Adversity (New Brunswick:Transaction,1986, paperback 1988).
⑥The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome (London and Portland, OR:Frank Cass,2001, paperback edition 2002) [Also published in Spanish, German and Portuguese; publication in Greek forthcoming].
①Israeli statecraft:national security challenges and responses(Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon; New York::Routledge,2011).
①彭和平,竹立家等编译：《国外公共行政理论精选》,中共中央党校出版社,1997年版,第262-270页。
②请参见耶合兹科·德热：“政策研究的基本概念”,[美]斯图亚特·S·那格尔编：《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,1990版,第10-12页。
③以下十个方面请参见Yehezkel Dror, Design for Policy Science, Elsevier Inc. New York,1971, p.50-53; Yehezkel Dror, Ventures in Policy Science, Elsevier Inc. New York,1971, pp.3-4。
④[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》中译本,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44-48页。
⑤王达梅,张文礼：《公共政策分析的理论与方法》,南开大学出版社,2009年版。
⑥叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版。
①张金马：《公共政策分析——概念·过程·方法》,人民出版社,2009年版,第163-172页。以及丁煌在《软科学研究》(1997年第1期)的“德罗尔的宏观政策分析思想”。
②Yehezkel Dror, On Becoming More of a Policy Scientist, Policy Studies Review, Vol 54,1984.
③陈振明：《政策科学》,中国人民大学出版社,1998年版,第7页。
④叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,代译者序部分第2页。
①孙万怀：《在制度和秩序的边际：刑事政策的一般理论》,北京大学出版社,2008年版。
②http://happy257.bokee.com/6654464.html
③曾锡环：“论政策科学的学科理论建构”,《中国行政管理》,1999年第12期。
①曾锡环：“哲学在政策科学研究中的功能分析”,《理论探讨》,2002年第4期。
②胡仁平：《在权力和权利之间：公共政策学新论》,湖南人民出版社,2002年版。
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Chris Argyris, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.118, No.1 (Spring,2003), pp.175-177.
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Harold A. Linstone, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol.69, No.5(2002), pp 523-525.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures,Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 801-805.
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures,Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 801-802.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 802-805.
③Tolicy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988). pp 223-224.
④Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror.Reviewed by:Paul Huth.Political Science Quarterly, Vol.102, No.2 (Summer,1987), pp.352-353.
①Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Harold A. Linstone, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol.30, No.6(1986), pp 383-386.
②Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Laura L. Vertz Perspective (Washington, DC),Vol.15, No.6(1986), pp.188.
①Public Policymaking Reexamined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Daniel J. Alesch, Administrative Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.14, No.3 (Sep.,1969), pp.483-484.
①Public Policy Making Re-Examined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Tony Flowerdew, Operational Research Quarterly (1970-1977), Vol.21, No.1 (Mar.,1970), pp.145-146.
①Ventures in Policy Sciences:Concepts and Applications by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Eugenes S. Uyeki, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences (1973), Vol.7, No.1, pp.109-110.
①Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (1972), Vol.4, No.2, pp.235-237.
①Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:E. S. Uyek, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences (1973), Vol.7, No.1,pp.105-106.
②Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by :Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (1972), Vol.4, No.2, pp.235-237.
③[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44页。
①[日].药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44-60页。
②Charles E. Lindblom:Contexts for Change and Strategy:A Reply. Public Administration Review, Vol.24, No.3 (Sep., 1964), pp.157-158.
③刘丽霞：《公共政策分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2006年版,第344页。
④Arnold J. Meltsner:Political Feasibility and Policy Analysis. Public Administration Review, Vol.32, No.6 (Nov.-Dec., 1972), pp.859.
①参见以色列权威网站的介绍http://www.presidentconf.org.i1/2012/en/bio.asp?rid=818
①宁骚主编：《公共政策学》,高等教育出版社,2011年6月第2版,第33页。
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.7-12.
③Yehezkel Dror:" Approaches to Policy Sciences:AAAS Symposium",Science, vol.166,No.3902 (1969),pp.272-273.
①[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第50-51页。
①“超前倾向”是指政策研究偏重于在政策制定中加强“政策咨询”的趋势。这一时期美国建立了一批以公共政策咨询研究为主要任务的研究所、研究中心,如兰德公司。这些机构广泛地采用统计学、数学、心理学、系统论等方法起草各种政策方案,进行各种政策模拟,提出各种政策建议,作为政府在制定公共政策时的参考。
②“趋后倾向”是指公共政策研究中注重研究公共政策的“执行与评估”,以及政策的终结。
③陈谭：《公共政策学》,湖南师范大学出版社,2003年版,第49-51页。
④以下三点请参见陈谭：《公共政策学》,湖南师范大学出版社,2003年版,第49-60页。
①叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第261-287页。
②钱再见：《现代公共政策学》,南京师范大学出版社,2007年版,第81-83页。
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.2.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.3.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.4-5.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.4-5.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.7.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.8-9.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.11.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.16.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Poiicy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.33-36.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.37-38.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.39.
②研究现状中已有介绍,在此无需赘言。
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.Preface.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.Preface.
③Yehezkel"Prolegomenatopolicysciences",PolicySciences,Vol.1,No.1,1970,pp.136.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp48-49.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.50.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.50-54
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51-52.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
⑦Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52-53.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Eisevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53-54.
②Yehezkel"Prolegomena to policy sciences",PolicySciences,Vol.1,No.1,1970,pp.140-141.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.55.62.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.63.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.63-73第六章有专门的宏观政策分析面向,在此不赘述。
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.74-76.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.80.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.80-81.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.123-124.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.124-126.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.126-127.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.127-128.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.128-129.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.130.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131-132.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.132-133.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.133-134.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.134-135.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Poiicy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.137.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.137-139.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.139.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.139-140.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.140.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.141.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.141-142.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.129-130.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.129-130.
③Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.131.
④Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Poiicymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.142.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.142-143.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.149.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Poiicymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.150.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.154.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.163-196.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版。
②See Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror, Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第21页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第22页。
③叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第22-23页。
①这一部分节选自叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第57-68页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第98-99页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第98-99页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第120页。
③以下6个原则请参见叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第122-133页。
④一个领域或一个系统的界限称为阈,其数值称为阈值。在各门科学领域中均有阈值。如数学中y=f(x)函数关系,自变量x值必须在函数的定义域内,因变量y才能有确定的值。这个函数的定义域就是x的阈值。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第335-360页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第337-341页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第342-348页。
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.35.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.38-50.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.40.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.41
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.42.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.42.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.43.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.44.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.47.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.48-49.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.49-50.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.51.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.54. ⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.54-56.
① Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.56.
② Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.57.
③ Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.57.
④ Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.57.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.58.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.58.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.60.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.60.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.63.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.63-69.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.64.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers, pp.65.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.65-66.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.67-68.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.70.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.70-75.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.71-72.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.72.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.72.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.73.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.74.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govem:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.79.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.81-82.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.82.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.84-85.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.85.
①Yhehzkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.85.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.86.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.94.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.94-95.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.95.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.95.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.96.
⑤ehezkel Dror.2001. The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.96.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome, London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.97.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.97-98.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.99.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.99.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.104.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.106-107.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.107.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.107.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.108-110.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.110-111.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.112.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.129.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.130.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131-132.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.133-134.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.134-135.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.135-136.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.136.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. P.169.
②如看法相同的国家因特殊原因而携手合作。可参考http://www.zaobao.com/special/hotspot/pages1/hotspot111116b.shtml
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.170.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.170-171.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.171-172.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.172-173.
②Yhezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.173.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.173-174.
④ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.174.
⑤ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.174.
①社会决策应当由最接近具体事务的个人和社群负责,只有下一级的社会组织不能有效完成任务的时候,才让上一级的社会组织介入。
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. ppl74-175.
③Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.175.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.178.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.188.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.189-192.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.193.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publ ishers. pp.195.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.201-209.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.211-212.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.212.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.213.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.213-214.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.114.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.115-116.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.116.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.116-117.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.117-118.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.118.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.118-119.
④Tehezfkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.119.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.119.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.120.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.120.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publisher pp.120-121.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.121.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.121.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.122.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.122-123.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.123-124.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124-125.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124-125.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.125.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London; Frank Cass Publishers. pp.125-126.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.126-127.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.127.
②Yehezkel Dror.2OOl.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.137.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.137.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138-139.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.139-149.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.151.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.154.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.154.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.155.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.155.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.158.
②ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp159.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).
②Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988),pp.7.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).pp.8.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.l (Jan.,1988).pp.10-12.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).pp12-16.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.133-155.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.133.
①这一概念,它主要关注知识资源(智力资本)和关系资源(社会资本)之间如何经过一定时期的互动来形成调动力(mobilising force)或者说政治能力。参见Building Institutional Capacity through Collaborative Approaches to Urban Planning,1998,第35-43页.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow. Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.135-136.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.136-137.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.137-139.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.140-143.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.20O8.pp.143-152.
②King's two bodies,国王具有两个身体,一是“自然身体”(body natural),另一个是政治身体(bodypoltics)。前者是具体的,后者是抽象的。“国王的两个身体”理论又与“基督”的两个身体理论有着复杂的牵连。
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.153-155.
①Politics is the art of the possible. Otto Von Bismarck, remark, Aug.11,1867.German Prussian politician (1815-1898),认为政治是现实的,需要妥协不求尽善尽美,只求更好的思想。
①Yehezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.9.
②Yehezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.9.
①Yhezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.10.
②Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.10-11.
①Yehezkel Dror, "Gambling with history, however, unpleasant, is normal to the human conditions', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.29, no.1 (February 1986), pp.78-79.
①Yehezkel Dror, "Gambling with history, however, unpleasant, is normal to the human conditions", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.29, no.1 (February 1986), pp.77.
①Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.11.
②Yehezkel Dror, "Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.26, (1984), pp.135.
③Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.12.
①Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.12-13.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987.pp. 185-215.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.185-186.
②Yehezkel Dror. Forecasting For Rulers.1983 Butterworth & Co (Publishers) Ltd FUTURES(August 1983),pp.246-247.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.187-189.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.187-190.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.194-195.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.185-186.
①政策制定通过自我实现预言的机制来发生作用,即政策产生期望,这些期望转而又影响人们的行为。参见[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第91页。
②借用英国哲学家戴维·皮尔斯(David Francis Pears)的概念。
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.192-193.
④Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.193-194.
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.193-194.
⑥Yehezkel Dror. The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome, Frank Cass Publishers,2001. P53.
⑦Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987 pp.194-195.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.194-195.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第340页。
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.196-197.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.197-198.
④离散的决策假定前后决策是独立的,从而能够使决策者摆脱过去决策失误的影响。
④Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.198-199.
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.198-199.
⑦知识库理应包括：与政府及其实务有关的经验与知识；有关政治的经验与知识；有关主要的政策领域与政策议题的学科知识：有关决策学的知识与跨学科的知识,如系统分析、仿真学与政策分析等。之所以需要上这些知识 是与向统治者提供建议的方法有关的。比如,可以用仿真术、博弈法与决策分析法向统治者提供决策；人机系统对向统治者以全面视角了解复杂的信息与分析非常有用。但是运用此类知识、方法与设备需要有正反两方面(潜在的收益与风险)的思考。See Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.199-200.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
③[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第321页。
④参照团体(reference group).该名词最早由海曼(Hyman, H.H)于1942年应用于团体研究中,与隶属团体(membership group)相对,指被个体视为判断事物的依据或自己行为的楷模的团体。
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 200-201.
①Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 202-203.
①Yehezkel Dror. International Political Science Review, Vol.7, No.1, Public Policy and Government Structures (1986), pp.17-20.
①Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第321页。
②Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 202-203.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.63.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.79.
③张金马：《.公共政策分析——概念·过程·方法》,人民出版社,2009年版,第163-172页.
①请参考第四章德罗尔的“为政策制定者培训”(Chapter 4 Training for policy makers).
②请参考米尔顿·弗里德曼著1984年的”The Tyranny of the Status Quo"(译为现状的暴政：他们不愿改变)。
③ "Politics is the art of the possible."出自俾士麦(Otto Von Bismarck),这种观点认为政治是现实的,需要妥协,不求尽善尽美,只求更好。
④Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.135.
①德洛尔认为,“小的更加美好”,“越小越有效”和“私营更有效率”等思想并非为经过可靠研究而得出的放之四海而皆准的结论。
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第319页。
③Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.80-81.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.81-82.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.86.
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.88.
③出自法国哲学家朱维奈最早提出的术语Futuribles,译为“可选择的未来”或“可能的未来”。
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.89.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第380页。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第125页。
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.90-92.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.93-94.
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.93-94.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Policy Analysts:A New Professional Role in Government Service". Public Administration Review, Vol.27, No.3 (Sep.,1967). pp.203.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第403页。
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.88.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.88-89.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.89.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Improving Critical Choices", Futures, Vol.28, Number 6/7 (August/September 1996), pp.561-562.
②Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560.
③Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Public Policymaking Reexamined. New York:Intext Educational Publishers. pp.330.
②格伦,靳军：《赫尔曼·卡恩——受到极大误解的未来学家》,《国外社会科学》,1984年第5期。
③[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第8页。
④[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第167页。
⑤“创造性破坏”这一概念是熊彼特在1912年出版的《经济发展理论》中提出的概念,熊彼特认为,企业家是 经济发展的带头人,是能够实现生产要素重新组织的创新者,熊彼特视企业家为创新的主体,认为其作用在于创造性地破坏市场的均衡。熊彼特看来,创新就是要不断从内部革新经济结构,创造新的结构,每一次大规模的创新都要淘汰旧的生产体系,并建立起新的生产体系。用熊彼特的话说,每一次的萧条都包括着一次技术革新的可能。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第124页。
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.128.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.126-133.
①Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.559-562.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.127-128.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.12-129.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.128-129.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.129.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
④Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130-131.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencie and Crisis Management, Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.132.
②Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560-561.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009.年版,第375-402页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009.年版,第337-360页。
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Public Policymaking Reexamined. New York:Intext Educational Publishers. pp.218-219.
④Charles E. Lindblom:Contexts for Change and Strategy:A Reply. Public Administration Review, Vol.24, No.3 (Sep., 1964), pp.157-158.
①参见http://happy257.bokee.com/6654464.html.
②斯图亚特.那格尔:《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,1990年版,第8页.
③[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版。
④YehezkelDror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.133.
⑤hezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.133.
①[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版,第59页。
②[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版,第59页。
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.133-134.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp124.
⑤ehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp140.
⑥ehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp128.
①Dror's First Law:While the difficulties and dangers of problems tend to increase at a geometric rate, the knowledge and manpower qualified to deal with these problems tend to increase linearly.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115-116.
①Yehezkel Dror:Request for help with preparation of a Club of Rome report on "Governance for the 21st Century". Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.40, No.2 (1991),pp.203-204.
②Yehezkel Dror:Elitism and Participation-for Better Public Policy-Making. The American Review of Public Administration, Vol.9, No.1 (Jan.,1975),pp.56-58.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.108.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.107-108.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.109.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.110.
②Yhe Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp802.
③Yhe Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Chris Argyris, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.118, No.1 (Spring,2003), pp.175-177.
①Public Policymaking Reexamined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Daniel J. Alesch, Administrative Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.14, No.3 (Sep.,1969), pp.483-484.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp802.
③哈默尔、普哈拉：《不确定性管理》,李田树译,天下远见出版公司,2000年版,第8-19页。
①Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt,Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3,1983,pp449.
②Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No. 3,1983,pp449.
③Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,Vol.26,No.2,1984,pp137.
④Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3,1983,pp449-450.
⑤Yehezkel Dror "New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3, 1983, pp450.
①Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and anagement,Vol.2,No.3,1983, pp450-451.
①Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,V61.26, No.2,1984, pp139.
②[以]叶海卡·德洛尔：《政策研究的基本概念》,[美]斯图亚特·S·那格尔编：《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,第9页。
①参见中国共产党新闻网http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/11082491.html
②如1998年起,武汉市每两年召开国际咨询顾问会,向特聘的顾问们咨询求解城市发展中面临的问题。
③参见http://www.1688.com.au/news/200904/hotnet55814.shtml
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,总序部分第6页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第263页。
③Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp88.
①[美]德博拉·斯通著：《政策悖论：政治决策中的艺术》,顾建光译,中国人民大学出版社,2006年版,第15页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第22-23页。
①[美]丹尼斯·舍伍德：《系统思考》,机械工业出版社,2012年版。
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第243-244页。
①闫健：《民主是个好东西——俞可平访谈录》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年版,第46-52页。
②张铭：“治理思路的调整与线性思维方式的转换”,《理论视野》,2012年第1期,第46页。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第126-128页。
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror.Reviewed by:S.Wald,Futures Vol.35,No.7(2003),pp802-803.
①Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,Vol.26, No.2,1984, pp136-137.
②[美]李侃如：《治理中国：从革命到改革》,中国社会科学出版社,2010年版,第356页。
③ "Transparency and Openness of Quality Democracy", in:Michael Kelly, ed., Openness and Transparency in Governance:Challenges and Oportunities. Maastricht, The Netherlands:European Institute of Public Administration, 2000,pp62-71.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp2-3.
②庞中英：“‘全球政府’：一种根本而有效的全球治理手段?”,《国际观察》,2011年第6期。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版,序言。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版,序言。
③以下四点总结请参见叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版序言的第1-5页。
1.Public Policymaking Reexamine (San Francisco:Chandler,1968,1983 Transaction Books enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, Chinese and Thai; publication in Japanese forthcoming]
2.Design For Policy Sciences (New York:Elsevier,1971) [Also published in Hebrew, Italian and Japanese]
3.Crazy States:A Counterconventional Strategic Issue (Lexington:Heath,1971; 1980 Kraus Reprints enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, German, and Japanese]
4.Policymaking Under Adversity (New Brunswick:Transaction,1986, paperback 1988);
5.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome (London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass,2001, paperback edition 2002) [Also published in Spanish, German and Portuguese; publication in Greek forthcoming]
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23."Adjusting the Central Mind of Governments to Adversity",International Political Science Review/Revue internationale de science politique, Vol.7, No.1, Public Policy and Government Structures (1986), pp.11-25.
24."Universities as Aids to Development Policymaking:Some Proposals, Policy Studies Journal,14:3 (1986:Mar.)pp.414-421.
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26."Visionary Political Leadership:On Improving a Risky Requisite",International Political Science Review/Revue international de science politique, Vol.9, No.1, Visionary Realism and Political Leadership/Dirigeants, grands desseins, et realite spolitiques (Jan.,1988), pp.7-22.
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37. "Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process", Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol.2, No.3 (September 1994), pp. 126-135.
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1. The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Chris Argyris, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.118, No.1 (Spring,2003), pp.175-177.
2. The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Harold A. Linstone, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol.69, No.5(2002), pp 523-525.
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4. Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
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14. Arnold J. Meltsner:Political Feasibility and Policy Analysis. Public Administration Review, Vol.32, No.6 (Nov.-Dec.,1972), pp.859-867.
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96.[英]C.P斯诺：《两种文化》,生活·读书·新知三联书店,1994年版。
97.[英]查尔斯·汉迪：《超越确定性》,浙江人民出版社,2012年版。
98.[古希腊]柏拉图：《政治家——论君王的技艺》,中国青年出版社,2002年版。
99.[美]艾赅博：《揭开行政之恶》,中央编译出版社,2009年版。
100.[美]戴维·埃伦费尔德：《人道主义的僭妄》,国际文化出版公司,1988年版。
101.[加]伊恩·哈金：《驯服偶然》,中央编译出版社,2000年版。
102.[英]约翰·格雷：《伪黎明》,中国社会科学出版社,2002年版。
103.[英]罗伯特·库珀：《和平箴言》,北京大学出版社,2007年版。
104.[美]埃里克·霍弗：《狂热分子》,广西师范大学出版社,2011年版。
105.[英]理查德·麦尔文：《道德语言》,商务印书馆,1999年版。
106.[美]史蒂芬·布雷耶：《规制及其改革》,北京大学出版社,2008年版。
107.[德]罗哲海：《轴心时期的儒家伦理》,大象出版社,2009年版。
108.[美]乔舒亚·库珀：《不可思议的年代》,湖南科学技术出版社,2010年版。
109.[英]戴维·赫尔德：《民主的模式》,中央编译出版社,2004年版。
110.[美]乔·萨托利：《民主新论》,东方出版社,1993年版。
111.[南非]罗伯特·克利特加德：《控制腐败》,中央编译出版社,1998年版。
112.[英]克里斯托弗·胡德：《国家的艺术》,上海世纪出版集团,2009年版。
113.张国庆：《公共政策分析》,复旦大学出版社,2004年版。
114.闫健：《民主是个好东西——俞可平访谈录》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年版。
115.宁骚：《公共政策学(第二版)》,高等教育出版社,2011年版。
116.钱再见：《现代公共政策学》,南京师范大学出版社,2007年版。
117.俞可平：《治理与善治》,社会科学文献出版社,2000年版。
1.钱再见、李金霞：《论科学决策中的专家失灵及其责任机制建构》,《理论探讨》,2006年第4期。
2.曾锡环：《论政策科学的学科理论建构》,《中国行政管理》,1999年第12期。
3.曾锡环：《哲学在政策科学研究中的功能分析》,《理论探讨》,2002年第4期。
4.孙萍,张晓杰：《公共政策的普适性与特殊性》,《行政论坛》,2007年第2期。
5.张铭：《治理思路的调整与线性思维方式的转换》,《理论视野》,2012年第1期。
6.庞中英：《‘全球政府’：一种根本而有效的全球治理手段?》,《国际观察》,2011年第6期。
7.曾锡环：《哲学在政策科学研究中的功能分析》,《理论探讨》,2002年第4期。
8.J.格伦,靳军：《赫尔曼·卡恩——受到极大误解的未来学家》,《国外社会科学》,1984年第5期。
9.严强：《西方现代政策科学发展的历史轨迹》,《南京社会科学》,1998年第3期。
http://www.presidentconf.org.il/2012/en/bio.asp?rid=818
http://www.cnki.net/
http://happy257.bokee.com/6654464.html
http://www.1688.com.au/news/200904/hotnet55814.shtml
http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/11082491.html
②[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44页。
①Public Policymaking Reexamine (San Francisco:Chandler,1968,1983 Transaction Books enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, Chinese and Thai; publication in Japanese forthcoming]
②Design For Policy Sciences (New York:Elsevier,1971) [Also published in Hebrew, Italian and Japanese].
③Ventures in Policy Sciences:Concepts and Applications. Yehezkel Dror,, American Elsevier, New York (1971).
④Crazy States:A Counterconventional Strategic Issue (Lexington:Heath,1971; 1980 Kraus Reprints enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, German, and Japanese].
⑤Policymaking Under Adversity (New Brunswick:Transaction,1986, paperback 1988).
⑥The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome (London and Portland, OR:Frank Cass,2001, paperback edition 2002) [Also published in Spanish, German and Portuguese; publication in Greek forthcoming].
①Israeli statecraft:national security challenges and responses(Milton Park,Abingdon,Oxon; New York::Routledge,2011).
①彭和平,竹立家等编译：《国外公共行政理论精选》,中共中央党校出版社,1997年版,第262-270页。
②请参见耶合兹科·德热：“政策研究的基本概念”,[美]斯图亚特·S·那格尔编：《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,1990版,第10-12页。
③以下十个方面请参见Yehezkel Dror, Design for Policy Science, Elsevier Inc. New York,1971, p.50-53; Yehezkel Dror, Ventures in Policy Science, Elsevier Inc. New York,1971, pp.3-4。
④[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》中译本,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44-48页。
⑤王达梅,张文礼：《公共政策分析的理论与方法》,南开大学出版社,2009年版。
⑥叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版。
①张金马：《公共政策分析——概念·过程·方法》,人民出版社,2009年版,第163-172页。以及丁煌在《软科学研究》(1997年第1期)的“德罗尔的宏观政策分析思想”。
②Yehezkel Dror, On Becoming More of a Policy Scientist, Policy Studies Review, Vol 54,1984.
③陈振明：《政策科学》,中国人民大学出版社,1998年版,第7页。
④叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,代译者序部分第2页。
①孙万怀：《在制度和秩序的边际：刑事政策的一般理论》,北京大学出版社,2008年版。
②http://happy257.bokee.com/6654464.html
③曾锡环：“论政策科学的学科理论建构”,《中国行政管理》,1999年第12期。
①曾锡环：“哲学在政策科学研究中的功能分析”,《理论探讨》,2002年第4期。
②胡仁平：《在权力和权利之间：公共政策学新论》,湖南人民出版社,2002年版。
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Chris Argyris, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.118, No.1 (Spring,2003), pp.175-177.
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Harold A. Linstone, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol.69, No.5(2002), pp 523-525.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures,Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 801-805.
①The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures,Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 801-802.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp 802-805.
③Tolicy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988). pp 223-224.
④Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror.Reviewed by:Paul Huth.Political Science Quarterly, Vol.102, No.2 (Summer,1987), pp.352-353.
①Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Harold A. Linstone, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,Vol.30, No.6(1986), pp 383-386.
②Policymaking Under Adversity, by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Laura L. Vertz Perspective (Washington, DC),Vol.15, No.6(1986), pp.188.
①Public Policymaking Reexamined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Daniel J. Alesch, Administrative Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.14, No.3 (Sep.,1969), pp.483-484.
①Public Policy Making Re-Examined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Tony Flowerdew, Operational Research Quarterly (1970-1977), Vol.21, No.1 (Mar.,1970), pp.145-146.
①Ventures in Policy Sciences:Concepts and Applications by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Eugenes S. Uyeki, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences (1973), Vol.7, No.1, pp.109-110.
①Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (1972), Vol.4, No.2, pp.235-237.
①Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:E. S. Uyek, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences (1973), Vol.7, No.1,pp.105-106.
②Design for Policy Sciences by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by :Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (1972), Vol.4, No.2, pp.235-237.
③[日]药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44页。
①[日].药师寺泰藏：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第44-60页。
②Charles E. Lindblom:Contexts for Change and Strategy:A Reply. Public Administration Review, Vol.24, No.3 (Sep., 1964), pp.157-158.
③刘丽霞：《公共政策分析》,东北财经大学出版社,2006年版,第344页。
④Arnold J. Meltsner:Political Feasibility and Policy Analysis. Public Administration Review, Vol.32, No.6 (Nov.-Dec., 1972), pp.859.
①参见以色列权威网站的介绍http://www.presidentconf.org.i1/2012/en/bio.asp?rid=818
①宁骚主编：《公共政策学》,高等教育出版社,2011年6月第2版,第33页。
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.7-12.
③Yehezkel Dror:" Approaches to Policy Sciences:AAAS Symposium",Science, vol.166,No.3902 (1969),pp.272-273.
①[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社,1991年版,第50-51页。
①“超前倾向”是指政策研究偏重于在政策制定中加强“政策咨询”的趋势。这一时期美国建立了一批以公共政策咨询研究为主要任务的研究所、研究中心,如兰德公司。这些机构广泛地采用统计学、数学、心理学、系统论等方法起草各种政策方案,进行各种政策模拟,提出各种政策建议,作为政府在制定公共政策时的参考。
②“趋后倾向”是指公共政策研究中注重研究公共政策的“执行与评估”,以及政策的终结。
③陈谭：《公共政策学》,湖南师范大学出版社,2003年版,第49-51页。
④以下三点请参见陈谭：《公共政策学》,湖南师范大学出版社,2003年版,第49-60页。
①叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第261-287页。
②钱再见：《现代公共政策学》,南京师范大学出版社,2007年版,第81-83页。
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.2.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.3.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.4-5.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.4-5.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.7.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.8-9.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.11.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.16.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Poiicy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.33-36.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.37-38.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.39.
②研究现状中已有介绍,在此无需赘言。
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.Preface.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.Preface.
③Yehezkel"Prolegomenatopolicysciences",PolicySciences,Vol.1,No.1,1970,pp.136.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp48-49.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.50.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.50-54
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.51-52.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
⑦Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.52-53.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Eisevier Publishing Company.pp.53.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.53-54.
②Yehezkel"Prolegomena to policy sciences",PolicySciences,Vol.1,No.1,1970,pp.140-141.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.55.62.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.63.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.63-73第六章有专门的宏观政策分析面向,在此不赘述。
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.74-76.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.80.
⑥Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences.NewYork:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.80-81.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.123-124.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.124-126.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.126-127.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.127-128.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.128-129.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.130.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.131-132.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.132-133.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.133-134.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.134-135.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Poiicy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.137.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.137-139.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.139.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.139-140.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.140.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.141.
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company, pp.141-142.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.129-130.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.129-130.
③Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.131.
④Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Poiicymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.142.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.142-143.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.149.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Poiicymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.150.
①Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.154.
②Yehezkel Dror.1968.Public Policymaking Reexamined New York:American Leonard Hill Books. pp.163-196.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版。
②See Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror, Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第21页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第22页。
③叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第22-23页。
①这一部分节选自叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第57-68页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第98-99页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第98-99页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第120页。
③以下6个原则请参见叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第122-133页。
④一个领域或一个系统的界限称为阈,其数值称为阈值。在各门科学领域中均有阈值。如数学中y=f(x)函数关系,自变量x值必须在函数的定义域内,因变量y才能有确定的值。这个函数的定义域就是x的阈值。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第335-360页。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第337-341页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第342-348页。
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.35.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.38-50.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.40.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.41
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.42.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.42.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.43.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.44.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.47.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.48-49.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.49-50.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.51.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.54. ⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.54-56.
① Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.56.
② Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.57.
③ Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.57.
④ Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.57.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.58.
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③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.59.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.60.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.60.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.53.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.63.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.63-69.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.64.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers, pp.65.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.65-66.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.67-68.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.70.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.70-75.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.71-72.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.72.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.72.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.73.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.74.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govem:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.79.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.81-82.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.82.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.83.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.84-85.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.85.
①Yhehzkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.85.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.86.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.94.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.94-95.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.95.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.95.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.96.
⑤ehezkel Dror.2001. The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.96.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome, London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.97.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.97-98.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.98.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.99.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.99.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.104.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.106-107.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.107.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.107.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.108-110.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.110-111.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.112.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.129.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.130.
⑤Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.131-132.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.133-134.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.134-135.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.135-136.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.136.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. P.169.
②如看法相同的国家因特殊原因而携手合作。可参考http://www.zaobao.com/special/hotspot/pages1/hotspot111116b.shtml
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.170.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.170-171.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.171-172.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.172-173.
②Yhezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.173.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.173-174.
④ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.174.
⑤ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.174.
①社会决策应当由最接近具体事务的个人和社群负责,只有下一级的社会组织不能有效完成任务的时候,才让上一级的社会组织介入。
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. ppl74-175.
③Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.175.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.178.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.188.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.189-192.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.193.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publ ishers. pp.195.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.201-209.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.211-212.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.212.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.213.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.213-214.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.114.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.115-116.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.116.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.116-117.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.117-118.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.118.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.118-119.
④Tehezfkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.119.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.119.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.120.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern: A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.120.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publisher pp.120-121.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.121.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.121.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.122.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.122-123.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.123-124.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124-125.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.124-125.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:AReport to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.125.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London; Frank Cass Publishers. pp.125-126.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers pp.126-127.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.127.
②Yehezkel Dror.2OOl.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.137.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.137.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138.
④Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.138-139.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.139-149.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.151.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.154.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.154.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.155.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.155.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.158.
②ehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp159.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).
②Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988),pp.7.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).pp.8.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.l (Jan.,1988).pp.10-12.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Visionary Political Leadership:On improving a risky Requisite". International Political Science Review, Vol.9,No.1 (Jan.,1988).pp12-16.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.133-155.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.133.
①这一概念,它主要关注知识资源(智力资本)和关系资源(社会资本)之间如何经过一定时期的互动来形成调动力(mobilising force)或者说政治能力。参见Building Institutional Capacity through Collaborative Approaches to Urban Planning,1998,第35-43页.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow. Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.135-136.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.136-137.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.137-139.
②Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.140-143.
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.20O8.pp.143-152.
②King's two bodies,国王具有两个身体,一是“自然身体”(body natural),另一个是政治身体(bodypoltics)。前者是具体的,后者是抽象的。“国王的两个身体”理论又与“基督”的两个身体理论有着复杂的牵连。
①Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.153-155.
①Politics is the art of the possible. Otto Von Bismarck, remark, Aug.11,1867.German Prussian politician (1815-1898),认为政治是现实的,需要妥协不求尽善尽美,只求更好的思想。
①Yehezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.9.
②Yehezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.9.
①Yhezkel Dror, Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.10.
②Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.10-11.
①Yehezkel Dror, "Gambling with history, however, unpleasant, is normal to the human conditions', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.29, no.1 (February 1986), pp.78-79.
①Yehezkel Dror, "Gambling with history, however, unpleasant, is normal to the human conditions", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.29, no.1 (February 1986), pp.77.
①Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.11.
②Yehezkel Dror, "Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol.26, (1984), pp.135.
③Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.12.
①Yehezkel Dror. Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration, Policy Studies Journal,12:1 (1983:Sept) pp.12-13.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987.pp. 185-215.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.185-186.
②Yehezkel Dror. Forecasting For Rulers.1983 Butterworth & Co (Publishers) Ltd FUTURES(August 1983),pp.246-247.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.187-189.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.187-190.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.194-195.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.185-186.
①政策制定通过自我实现预言的机制来发生作用,即政策产生期望,这些期望转而又影响人们的行为。参见[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第91页。
②借用英国哲学家戴维·皮尔斯(David Francis Pears)的概念。
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.192-193.
④Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.193-194.
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.193-194.
⑥Yehezkel Dror. The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome, Frank Cass Publishers,2001. P53.
⑦Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987 pp.194-195.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers.Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.194-195.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第340页。
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
①Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.195-196.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.196-197.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.197-198.
④离散的决策假定前后决策是独立的,从而能够使决策者摆脱过去决策失误的影响。
④Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.198-199.
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.198-199.
⑦知识库理应包括：与政府及其实务有关的经验与知识；有关政治的经验与知识；有关主要的政策领域与政策议题的学科知识：有关决策学的知识与跨学科的知识,如系统分析、仿真学与政策分析等。之所以需要上这些知识 是与向统治者提供建议的方法有关的。比如,可以用仿真术、博弈法与决策分析法向统治者提供决策；人机系统对向统治者以全面视角了解复杂的信息与分析非常有用。但是运用此类知识、方法与设备需要有正反两方面(潜在的收益与风险)的思考。See Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp.199-200.
②Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
③Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
③[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第321页。
④参照团体(reference group).该名词最早由海曼(Hyman, H.H)于1942年应用于团体研究中,与隶属团体(membership group)相对,指被个体视为判断事物的依据或自己行为的楷模的团体。
⑤Yehezkel Dror."Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 200-201.
①Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 202-203.
①Yehezkel Dror. International Political Science Review, Vol.7, No.1, Public Policy and Government Structures (1986), pp.17-20.
①Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 199-200.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第321页。
②Yehezkel Dror. "Conclusions" chapter, in:William Plowden, ed., Advising the Rulers. Oxford:Blackwell,1987. pp. 202-203.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.63.
②Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.79.
③张金马：《.公共政策分析——概念·过程·方法》,人民出版社,2009年版,第163-172页.
①请参考第四章德罗尔的“为政策制定者培训”(Chapter 4 Training for policy makers).
②请参考米尔顿·弗里德曼著1984年的”The Tyranny of the Status Quo"(译为现状的暴政：他们不愿改变)。
③ "Politics is the art of the possible."出自俾士麦(Otto Von Bismarck),这种观点认为政治是现实的,需要妥协,不求尽善尽美,只求更好。
④Yehezkel Dror.The New Ruler:Leadership for the 21st Century.Jerusalem:The Jewish People Policy Planning Institute, Tomorrow:Background Policy Documents.2008.pp.135.
①德洛尔认为,“小的更加美好”,“越小越有效”和“私营更有效率”等思想并非为经过可靠研究而得出的放之四海而皆准的结论。
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第319页。
③Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.80-81.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.81-82.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.86.
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company.pp.88.
③出自法国哲学家朱维奈最早提出的术语Futuribles,译为“可选择的未来”或“可能的未来”。
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.89.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第380页。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第125页。
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.90-92.
①Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.93-94.
②Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp.93-94.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Policy Analysts:A New Professional Role in Government Service". Public Administration Review, Vol.27, No.3 (Sep.,1967). pp.203.
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第403页。
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.88.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.88-89.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. p.89.
①Yehezkel Dror:"Improving Critical Choices", Futures, Vol.28, Number 6/7 (August/September 1996), pp.561-562.
②Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560.
③Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560.
①Yehezkel Dror.1971.Public Policymaking Reexamined. New York:Intext Educational Publishers. pp.330.
②格伦,靳军：《赫尔曼·卡恩——受到极大误解的未来学家》,《国外社会科学》,1984年第5期。
③[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第8页。
④[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第167页。
⑤“创造性破坏”这一概念是熊彼特在1912年出版的《经济发展理论》中提出的概念,熊彼特认为,企业家是 经济发展的带头人,是能够实现生产要素重新组织的创新者,熊彼特视企业家为创新的主体,认为其作用在于创造性地破坏市场的均衡。熊彼特看来,创新就是要不断从内部革新经济结构,创造新的结构,每一次大规模的创新都要淘汰旧的生产体系,并建立起新的生产体系。用熊彼特的话说,每一次的萧条都包括着一次技术革新的可能。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,北京：国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第124页。
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.128.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.126-133.
①Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.559-562.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.127-128.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.12-129.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.128-129.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.129.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
④Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.130-131.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
②Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
③Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencie and Crisis Management, Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.131.
①Yehezkel Dror. Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process, Journal of contingencies and Crisis Management Volume 2 Number 3 (September 1994).pp.132.
②Yehezkel Dror, Elsevier Science Journal:Futures Volume:28 Issue:6 (1996-08) pp.560-561.
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009.年版,第375-402页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009.年版,第337-360页。
③Yehezkel Dror.1971.Public Policymaking Reexamined. New York:Intext Educational Publishers. pp.218-219.
④Charles E. Lindblom:Contexts for Change and Strategy:A Reply. Public Administration Review, Vol.24, No.3 (Sep., 1964), pp.157-158.
①参见http://happy257.bokee.com/6654464.html.
②斯图亚特.那格尔:《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,1990年版,第8页.
③[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版。
④YehezkelDror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.133.
⑤hezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome.London:Frank Cass Publishers.pp.133.
①[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版,第59页。
②[日]药师寺泰藏著：《公共政策》,张丹译,经济日报出版社.1991年版,第59页。
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.133-134.
④Yehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp124.
⑤ehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp140.
⑥ehezkel Dror.1971.Design for Policy Sciences. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp128.
①Dror's First Law:While the difficulties and dangers of problems tend to increase at a geometric rate, the knowledge and manpower qualified to deal with these problems tend to increase linearly.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.115-116.
①Yehezkel Dror:Request for help with preparation of a Club of Rome report on "Governance for the 21st Century". Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.40, No.2 (1991),pp.203-204.
②Yehezkel Dror:Elitism and Participation-for Better Public Policy-Making. The American Review of Public Administration, Vol.9, No.1 (Jan.,1975),pp.56-58.
③Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.108.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.107-108.
②Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.109.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp.110.
②Yhe Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp802.
③Yhe Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Chris Argyris, Political Science Quarterly, Vol.118, No.1 (Spring,2003), pp.175-177.
①Public Policymaking Reexamined by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:Daniel J. Alesch, Administrative Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.14, No.3 (Sep.,1969), pp.483-484.
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by:S.Wald, Futures Vol.35, No.7(2003), pp802.
③哈默尔、普哈拉：《不确定性管理》,李田树译,天下远见出版公司,2000年版,第8-19页。
①Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt, Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①Policy Making Under Adversity by Yehezkel Dror. Reviewed by Christopher Pollitt,Public Administration, Vol.66, No 2(1988), pp223-224.
①Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3,1983,pp449.
②Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No. 3,1983,pp449.
③Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,Vol.26,No.2,1984,pp137.
④Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3,1983,pp449-450.
⑤Yehezkel Dror "New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,Vol.2, No.3, 1983, pp450.
①Yehezkel Dror"New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and anagement,Vol.2,No.3,1983, pp450-451.
①Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,V61.26, No.2,1984, pp139.
②[以]叶海卡·德洛尔：《政策研究的基本概念》,[美]斯图亚特·S·那格尔编：《政策研究百科全书》,科学技术文献出版社,第9页。
①参见中国共产党新闻网http://theory.people.com.cn/GB/11082491.html
②如1998年起,武汉市每两年召开国际咨询顾问会,向特聘的顾问们咨询求解城市发展中面临的问题。
③参见http://www.1688.com.au/news/200904/hotnet55814.shtml
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,总序部分第6页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第263页。
③Michael Moran, Martin Rein, and Robert E.Goodin.2005. New York:American Elsevier Publishing Company. pp88.
①[美]德博拉·斯通著：《政策悖论：政治决策中的艺术》,顾建光译,中国人民大学出版社,2006年版,第15页。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009版,第22-23页。
①[美]丹尼斯·舍伍德：《系统思考》,机械工业出版社,2012年版。
②[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第243-244页。
①闫健：《民主是个好东西——俞可平访谈录》,社会科学文献出版社,2006年版,第46-52页。
②张铭：“治理思路的调整与线性思维方式的转换”,《理论视野》,2012年第1期,第46页。
①[以]叶海卡·德罗尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年版,第126-128页。
②The Capacity to Govern by Yehezkel Dror.Reviewed by:S.Wald,Futures Vol.35,No.7(2003),pp802-803.
①Yehezkel Dror"Thinking on Grand Issues", Technological Forecasting and Social Changes,Vol.26, No.2,1984, pp136-137.
②[美]李侃如：《治理中国：从革命到改革》,中国社会科学出版社,2010年版,第356页。
③ "Transparency and Openness of Quality Democracy", in:Michael Kelly, ed., Openness and Transparency in Governance:Challenges and Oportunities. Maastricht, The Netherlands:European Institute of Public Administration, 2000,pp62-71.
①Yehezkel Dror.2001.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome. London:Frank Cass Publishers. pp2-3.
②庞中英：“‘全球政府’：一种根本而有效的全球治理手段?”,《国际观察》,2011年第6期。
①叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版,序言。
②叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版,序言。
③以下四点总结请参见叶海卡·德洛尔：《逆境中的政策制定》,国家行政学院出版社,2009年中文版序言的第1-5页。
1.Public Policymaking Reexamine (San Francisco:Chandler,1968,1983 Transaction Books enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, Chinese and Thai; publication in Japanese forthcoming]
2.Design For Policy Sciences (New York:Elsevier,1971) [Also published in Hebrew, Italian and Japanese]
3.Crazy States:A Counterconventional Strategic Issue (Lexington:Heath,1971; 1980 Kraus Reprints enlarged edition) [Also published in Hebrew, German, and Japanese]
4.Policymaking Under Adversity (New Brunswick:Transaction,1986, paperback 1988);
5.The Capacity to Govern:A Report to the Club of Rome (London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass,2001, paperback edition 2002) [Also published in Spanish, German and Portuguese; publication in Greek forthcoming]
1."Values and the Law ", Antioch Review,17:4 (Dec 1957) pp.440-454.
2. "Administrative Agency Reactions to Court Decisions ", Political research, organization and design:PROD,3:3 (Nov 1959) pp.7-9.
3."Problems of Tomorrow:Knowledge, Social Action and Social Problems ", Social Problems Vol.7, No.4, Symposium on Social Problems in the Soviet Union (Spring,1960), pp.356-359.
4."Muddling Through-"Science" or Inertia?",Public Administration Review, Vol.24, No.3 (Sep.,1964), pp.153-157.
5."The Barriers Facing Policy Science", American Behavioral Scientist, 7:5(1964:Jan.) pp.3-7.
6."Policy Analysts:A New Professional Role in Government Service",Public Administration Review, Vol.27, No.3 (Sep.,1967), pp.197-203.
7."Approaches to Policy Sciences:AAAS Symposium,28 December 1969, Boston",Science, New Series, Vol.166, No.3902 (Oct.10,1969), pp.272-273.
8."PPB and the Public Policy-Making System:Some Reflections on the Papers by Bertram M. Gross and Allen Schick",Public Administration Review, Vol.29, No.2 (Mar.-Apr.,1969), pp.152-154.
9."Communications",The American Political Science Review, Vol.64, No.1 (Mar., 1970), pp.182-186.
10."Law as a Tool of Directed Social Change:'A Framework for Policy-Making'", American Behavioral Scientist,13:4 (1970:Mar./Apr.) pp.553-559.
11."Systems Analysis and National Modernization Decisions", The Academy of Management Journal, Vol.13, No.2 (Jun.,1970), pp.139-152.
12. "Issue Editor's Epilogue:Universities and the Teaching of Policy Sciences ", Policy Sciences,2:1 (1971:Mar.) pp 83-85.
13."Institutional Growth of Policy Sciences",General Policy Science, Policy Studies Journal,1:2 (1972:Winter)pp.56-61.
14."Some Diverse Approaches to Policy Analysis:A Partial Reply to Thomas Dye ",Policy Studies Journal,1:4 (1973:Summer) pp.258-260.
15."Elitism and Participation- for Better Public Policy-Making",The American Review of Public Administration 1975 9:pp 56-58.
16."The Hudson Report:Criticisms unanswered", Futures, June 1975,256-257.
17."New Advances in Public Policy Teaching", Journal of Policy Analysis and Management,2:3 (1983:Spring) pp.449-454.
18."Policy-Gambling:A Preliminary Exploration", Policy Studies Journal, 12:1(1983:Sept.)pp.9-13.
19."Forecasting for Rulers", Futures,August 1983, pp.246-250.
20." On Becoming More of A Policy Scientist", Policy Studies Review,Vol.4, No. 1, august,1984, pp.13-21.
21."Required Breakthroughs in Think Tanks",Policy Sciences 16 (1984) pp 199-225.
22."Thinking on Grand Issues",Technological Forecasting and Social Change 26, pp 135-143(1984).
23."Adjusting the Central Mind of Governments to Adversity",International Political Science Review/Revue internationale de science politique, Vol.7, No.1, Public Policy and Government Structures (1986), pp.11-25.
24."Universities as Aids to Development Policymaking:Some Proposals, Policy Studies Journal,14:3 (1986:Mar.)pp.414-421.
25."Gambling with history, However Unpleasant, is Normal to the Human Condition". Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.29,No.1 (Feb.,1986).pp.76-81.
26."Visionary Political Leadership:On Improving a Risky Requisite",International Political Science Review/Revue international de science politique, Vol.9, No.1, Visionary Realism and Political Leadership/Dirigeants, grands desseins, et realite spolitiques (Jan.,1988), pp.7-22.
27."Steering Requisites for Crises-Opportunities On-Going Challenges",Journal of Contingencies and crisis Management, Volume 1, Number 1, March 1993.pp.13-14.
28."Memo For System-reforming rulers", Futures August 1989, pp.334-343.
29."Policy Reasoning for forecasting",Technological Forecasting and Social Change, pp 36,99-104(1989).
30."Request for Help with Preparation of a Club of Rome Report on'Governance for the 21st Century'",Technological Forecasting and Social Change, pp 36,209-212(1991).
31."Fuzzy Gambles with History",The Futurist July-August 1992,pp.60.
32. "Futures Studies Defects", Futures, Vol.25 No.3 (August 1993), pp.351-352.
33."Reflections of a PSO President:Policy Professionalism as A Vocational Calling". Policy Studies Journal, Vol.21, No.1 (1993):pp 6-13.
34."Statecraft as Fuzzy Gambling with History". Futures Research Quartely. Vol.9, No.3 (Fall 1993):pp 95-107.
35."Falling into a Black Hole Between Philosophy, Mysticism and Policy". Futures, Vol.25, No.10 (December 1993), pp.1074-1077.
36."Basic Concepts in Advanced Policy Sciences", in:Stuart S. Nagel, ed., Encyclopedia of Policy Studies, Second Edition, New York:Marcel Dekker,1994, chapter 1,pp.1-30.
37. "Statecraft as Prudent Risk Taking:The Case of the Middle East Peace Process", Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol.2, No.3 (September 1994), pp. 126-135.
38."Strengthening Government Capacity for Policy Development", United Nations Document ST/SG/AC/6/1995/L.2.23.
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99.[美]艾赅博：《揭开行政之恶》,中央编译出版社,2009年版。
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http://www.presidentconf.org.il/2012/en/bio.asp?rid=818
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