中国粮食主产区的演变与发展研究
摘要
粮食安全问题是一个关系到国计民生的重要问题。特别是对于拥有13亿人口的中国来说,粮食安全问题尤为重要。新中国成立以来,中国创造了以世界9%左右的耕地、6%左右的淡水,养活占世界20%左右人口的奇迹。虽然中国粮食生产取得了巨大成就,但目前中国粮食安全的基础还不稳固,随着惠农政策边际效应的递减以及中国宏观经济形式的变化,中国粮食生产情况还不容乐观。粮食主产区是中国商品粮生产的核心区域,对确保国家主要农产品有效供给具有决定性作用。一旦粮食主产区出现问题,就会直接危及国家的粮食安全和社会稳定。自20世纪80年代以来,中国粮食主产区呈现出不断缩小的趋势,这种变化是自然、经济、科技等多重因素共同作用的结果。中国粮食主产区的演变与发展不仅在过去,而且在现在,乃至在未来都会对中国的粮食安全产生巨大影响。
本文从粮食主产区空间格局变迁与粮食安全相结合的视角切入,揭示中国粮食主产区历史演变的特点与原因,探讨粮食主产区面临的主要问题,分析工业化进程中基于比较利益的粮农种粮行为选择,探索在粮农收入构成中粮食收入不断下降情况下,农户投资粮食生产的动力机制,为制定国家粮食安全战略和建立粮食主产区可持续发展长效机制提供理论依据和实证支持。
本文共分为八章,主要研究内容和结论如下：
第一章为本文的导论。阐明本文的选题依据、研究目标、研究内容、研究方法和技术路线等,对国内外相关研究进行评述,界定论文中涉及的基本概念和研究范围,并对本文所依据的理论基础进行系统阐述。
第二章为中国粮食主产区的演变。从分析中国粮食主产区演变的历史进程入手,概括总结中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的特征,实证研究中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的影响因素,探寻带来这种变化的主要原因。研究结果表明,新中国成立以来,中国粮食主产区空间格局发生了较大变化。这种变化体现在生产格局和流通格局两个方面。从中国粮食生产格局变迁看,全国粮食生产区域由南方持续向北方转移,由东部、西部逐渐向中部推进,其中东南沿海区粮食生产急剧萎缩,东北区和黄淮海区形成了全国粮食增长中心,粮食主产区的边界明显地呈现出缩小趋势。从中国粮食流通格局变迁看,伴随着粮食调运由计划调拨到市场调节的变化,中国粮食流向流量发生了由南粮北调向北粮南运的转变。中国粮食主产区空间格局的变化表现出显著特点：第一,粮食主产区在空间上相对集中；第二,粮食生产与人口分布的地域分异加剧；第三,粮食主产区向经济滞后区域集中；第四,粮食主产区与主销区的空间距离加大。中国粮食主产区空间格局的变化是伴随着我国经济改革而发生的,这种变化的形成包含着复杂而深刻的经济与社会多重原因。第一,种粮比较效益相对低下是粮食主产区萎缩的基本原因；第二,市场化、国际化、工业化和城镇化进程的区域差异性是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的重要原因；第三,人地矛盾是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的客观原因；第四,社会需求拉动是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的市场动因；第五,农业科技进步为粮食主产区空间格局变迁提供了推动力。
第三章为中国粮食主产区差异分析。首先,运用因子分析方法对目前中国13个粮食主产区的区域经济差异进行综合评价。其次,采用比较分析方法分别从粮食生产能力和商品化程度两个方面对粮食主产区的内部差异进行深入探讨。研究发现,粮食主产区内部各省(区)的经济发展状况呈现出梯度特征,其中江苏、山东、辽宁和河北的经济发展水平高于粮食主产区平均水平,其它9省(区)的经济发展水平低于粮食主产区平均水平。经济发展水平较高的省份,其粮食商品化程度并不高。值得关注的是四川、湖北两省的人均粮食占有量比全国平均水平还要低。粮食商品化程度显著高于全国平均水平的黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省(区),其粮食产量波动系数均高于全国平均水平1倍以上,说明我国主要的商品粮输出省份粮食生产的稳定性极差。
第四章为中国粮食主产区发展面临的问题。目前,中国粮食主产区发展主要面临着粮食主产区利益流失、区域经济发展滞后、粮食流通体系不顺畅、土地经营规模狭小粮农种粮行为的工业化“效应”凸显等问题。
第五章为工业化进程中农户种粮行为实证分析。结合研究目的,参考已有研究成果,根据实地调研情况,首先运用VAR模型以浙江省为例分析工业化进程中农户的“轻粮”行为。其次运用Logistic模型以吉林省为例分析工业化进程中粮食主产区农户种粮意愿的影响因素。最后在上述分析基础上选用固定效应模型,采用最小二乘法对粮食主产区农户收入与其农业生产性投资的关系进行实证检验,并据此对未来种粮行为进行预期。分析结果表明,对于处于工业化中后期阶段的农户而言,相对收益的变化是影响种粮行为的重要因素且对农户种粮行为具有负效应,即在工业化充分发展的条件下,随着土地外收入成为农民收入的主体,农民种粮积极性将明显下降。对于处于工业化中前期阶段的农户而言,种粮决策者的年龄、种粮决策者的受教育程度、粮食价格、农资价格、种粮收入占总收入比重、粮食补贴政策等因素都会对农户种粮行为产生影响。其中种粮决策者的年龄、粮食价格、种粮收入占总收入比重和粮食补贴政策对农户种粮行为产生正向影响,种粮决策者的受教育程度和农资价格对农户种粮行为产生负向影响。根据以上分析可以发现,无论是处于工业化中后期阶段的农户还是处于工业化中前期阶段的农户,相对收益的变化对其种粮行为均有重要影响。通过预测得出：当粮食主产区农户第一产业收入占家庭收入比重下降到1/5时,农户农业生产性投资占其总支出的比重只有1/10左右,说明在这一“时刻”,农民不再关心土地的收益甚至会发生弃耕行为。
第六章为中国粮食主产区支持政策。粮食主产区的发展离不开国家的政策支持,因此有必要对粮食主产区的支持政策进行回顾、梳理和评价,提出调整与优化粮食主产区支持政策的措施。改革开放以来,特别是从2004年开始,国家围绕生产要素、生产主体和产品市场从资源保障、物质装备、科技支撑、生产经营、收入支持、风险抗御、加工转化和市场调控等方面搭建起了粮食主产区支持政策体系的基本框架。现阶段,粮食主产区支持政策体系无论在政策内涵上,抑或是在外延上,都有了明显的变化和发展。政策的实施取得了较好的效果,但与建设现代农业、建设社会主义新农村的需要相比,仍存在政策补贴标准偏低,支持力度不够；政策利益主体多元化,执行成本较高；政策功能不强,支持体系不健全；配套政策不利于调动粮食主产区地方政府粮食生产的积极性；政策忽视了粮食主产区经济的全面发展等问题。为了促进粮食生产长远稳定发展,构建国家粮食安全长效机制,必须建立稳定而长效的粮食主产区支持政策体系,进一步加大政策支持力度,扩大政策支持范围,转变政策支持方式。
第七章为中国粮食主产区发展预期。要实现粮食主产区的健康发展,必须结合粮食主产区发展的现实和未来的需要,科学确定粮食主产区的战略定位,制定粮食主产区的发展目标,明确粮食主产区可持续发展的条件。为此必须要强化粮食主产区粮食生产的要素基础,不断加强自然基础要素,增加人工投入要素,提升效率要素等。
第八章为本文的结论与建议部分。在对论文研究结果进行总结的基础上,提出中国粮食主产区可持续发展的建议,为政府相关部门决策的制定提供参考。
本论文从宏观、中观和微观三个层次分析国家、地方政府、农民经济利益及其行为相互影响关系,从多视角探讨粮食主产区变迁问题。从综合经济实力、粮食生产能力、粮食商品化程度等角度建立评价指标体系,对目前中国13个粮食主产区的内部差异进行分析,以期对未来粮食主产区的发展定位提供理论依据。以工业化进程中,随着农民兼业化程度的提高,粮食生产的商品意义和收入意义越来越淡化,粮食主产区农民会演化成较严重的“轻粮”行为为背景,探讨未来如何调动粮食主产区农民种粮积极性,确保国家的粮食安全问题。从学术价值、理论意义看,这是基于新的视角关于粮食主产区确保粮食安全研究的理论探索。从实践意义看,本论文对巩固和提高我国粮食综合生产能力,确保国家粮食安全,加快粮食主产区发展,促进农民增收,推进现代农业发展具有十分重要的现实意义。
Food safety is an important issue related to national interest and people's livelihood. Especially for China, with1.3billion people, food security issue is particularly important. Since the founding of new China, China has created a miracle that9%of the world's arable land and6%of the fresh water feed20%of the world's population. Although China has made great achievement in food production, the basis of China's food security is not stable. With the decreasing of the marginal benefit of agricultural policies and the change of China's macro-economic situation, China's grain production is also not good. Major grain producing areas are the core areas of China's commodity grain, which play a decisive role in ensuring the effective supply of China's main agricultural products. Once the major grain-producing areas have problems, they will directly endanger the country's food security and social stability. Since the1980s, China's major grain producing areas have showed a shrinking trend. This change was the result of multiple factors which contain nature, economics, science, technology and so on. Not only in the past, but now, even in the future, evolution and development of China's major grain-producing areas would be a great impact on China's food security.
This paper, cutting from the perspective of changes in spatial patterns of major grain producing areas and food security, revealed the characteristics and reasons of historical evolution of China's major grain-producing areas, discussed the main problems of major grain-producing areas, analyzed the choice of behavior of farming in the process of industrialization, which based on comparative advantage, explored impetus mechanism of farmers investing grain production in the situation of grain income declining, provided a theoretical basis and empirical support for establishing long-term mechanism of sustainable development of major grain-producing areas and formulating national food security strategy.
This paper is composed of eight chapters, Main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It introduced the significance, objectives, contents, methodology and technical route, reviewed relevant research, defined the basic concepts and research scope, fonnulated the theoretical basis.
The second chapter is the change of China's major grain-producing areas. Based on the analysis of the historical process of evolution in the China's major grain-producing areas, this paper summed up the characteristics of spatial pattern change, empirically studied the influence factors of spatial pattern change and explored main reasons. The results of the study showed that since the founding of new China, spatial pattern of China's major grain-producing areas had undergone great changes. This change reflected in two aspects, production pattern and circulation patterns. From the change of China's grain production pattern change, the grain production areas had transferred from south to north, from east and west to the central. Food production of southeast coastal areas had sharply narrowed. Northeast and Huang-Huai regions had formed the national grain growth center. The boundary of major grain-producing areas had evidently emerged narrow trend. From the change of China's grain circulation pattern, with the grain transport from plan allocation to market regulation, China's grain flow changed from "south to north" to "north to south" The changes of China's major grain-producing areas showed marked characteristics:First, space of the major grain-producing areas is relatively concentrated. Second, regional differentiation of grain production and population distribution is intensified. Third, major grain-producing areas are concentrated to economy lagging regions. Fourth, the space distance between major grain-producing areas and grain-marketing areas is increased. The space pattern changes in China's major grain-producing areas are accompanied by China's economic reform. These kinds of changes contain complex and profound economic and social reasons. First, the grain comparative benefits low is the basic reason. Second, regional differences of market、 internationalization industrialization and urbanization is an important reason. Third, the contradiction between human and land is the objective reason. Fourth, social demand is the marketable reason. Fifth, agricultural technological progress provides driving force.
The third chapter is the internal difference analysis of China's major grain-producing areas. First of all, using the factor analysis method made a comprehensive evaluation of regional economic disparities of China's13major grain-producing areas. Secondly, using the comparative analysis method discussed the internal differences of major grain-producing areas from two aspects, grain production capacity and commercialization degree. Research showed that economic development of the provinces (autonomous regions) of major grain-producing areas presented gradient feature. The economic development in Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei were higher than average. The other provinces (autonomous regions) were lower than average. Grain commercialization of provinces with higher levels of economic development was not high. It was noteworthy that the per capita shares of grain were even lower than the national average in Sichuan and Hubei provinces. Grain commercialization degree in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia were significantly higher than the national average level. Their fluctuation coefficients of grain yield were higher than the national average, which showed that the stability of grain production were very poor in major grain production provinces.
The forth chapter covers the issues that the major grain-producing areas faced. The issues included interest loss of China's major grain-producing areas, lagging of regional economic development, obstacle of the grain circulation system, small-scale land, industrialization "effect" of farmers producing behavior and so on.
The fifth chapter is the positive analysis of the farmers growing grain in the industrialization process. Combining research purposes, referring to the exist results and according to field research situation, the paper firstly taking Zhejiang province for example analyzed farm households'growing grain behavior in the process of industrialization by VAR model. Secondly, taking Jilin province for example, the paper analyzed the influenced factors of farmers'willingness to grow grain in the process of industrialization by logistic model. Finally, according to the above research results, on the basis of fixed effects model, the paper examined the relation between the farmer's income and the agricultural investment by the method of OLS, and predicted the farmer's growing grain behavior. The results showed that, for the farmers who were in the middle and last process of industrializing, change of relative income was important factor that affected the behavior of growing grain. And the change had negative effects.Under full development of industrialization, with non-farm income becoming the main income of the farmers, the enthusiasm of farmers' growing grain would be significantly reduced. For the farmers who were in the first and middle process of industrializing, the farmer's age、the farmer's educational level、grain price、the agricultural investment cost、the proportion of income of growing grain in total income and the grain subsidies policy and so on would affect the behavior of farmers' growing grain. The farmer's age、grain prices、the proportion of income of growing grain in total income and grain subsidies policy had positive influence. The farmer's educational level and the agricultural investment cost had negative influence. Through the analysis, it showed that change of relative income had important influence. When the proportion of the primary industry income of farmers' household in the major grain-producing areas dropped to1/5, the agricultural production investment would account for only about1/10of all spending. In this "moment", farmers would no longer concern about the return of land, even abandon arable land.
The sixth chapter gives the support policies of China's major grain-producing areas. The development of major grain-producing areas can not be off national policy support. So it is necessary to review, sort out and evaluate the support policies of major grain-producing areas, propose measures of adjusting and optimizing support policies of major grain-producing areas. Since reform and opening-up, especially since2004, China has built the basic framework of the support policy system for major grain-producing areas around the factors of production, producer and product markets from the resource security, substance equipment, technological support, production and management, income support, risk resilience, processing and conversion, and market regulation and so on. At present, there is a significant change and development for support policy system of major grain-producing areas on the connotation of policy or on the extension. Implementation of the policy has achieved good results. But compared with the construction of modern agriculture and the needs of construction of new socialist countryside, there are still many problems that standard of policy subsidies is lower, cost of implementation is higher, support system is not perfect, matching policy can not initiate the enthusiasm of local government and so on. In order to promote long-term stable development of grain production and build long-term mechanism of the national food security, we need to establish stable and long-term support policy system for major grain-producing areas, further increase policy support, expand the scope of policy support and change policy support mode.
In the seventh chapter, development of China's major grain-producing areas is expected. To achieve the healthy development of major grain-producing areas, it is must combined with the reality and future needs of development of major grain-producing areas, scientifically determine the strategic position of major grain-producing areas, formulate the development goals of major grain-producing areas, clear the conditions for sustainable development of major grain-producing areas. Therefore, it must strengthen the element basis of grain production of major grain-producing areas, including strengthening elements of the natural basis, increasing labor input, enhancing efficiency of elements and so on.
The last chapter covers conclusions and policy implications. On the basis of the research results, this dissertation puts forward some measures for sustainable development of China's major grain-producing areas. It puts forward recommendations for relevant government department.
This paper analyzed the interrelation of economic interests and their behavior about the nation, local government and farmers from the macro, meso and micro levels, and discussed the changes of the major grain-producing areas from many aspects. In order to providing theoretical basis for the future development of major grain-producing areas, the evaluation system was established from the comprehensive economic strength, grain production capacity and grain commercialization degree. And the internal differences of the current13major grain-producing areas were analyzed. In the process of industrialization, with the improvement of the concurrent-business degree of farmers, the commodity meaning and income significance of grain production would have became more and more unimportant, the farmers of major grain-producing areas would have grown into the serious behavior of abandoning grain production. Taking it as a background, the paper discussed how to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers and ensure the country's food safety. From the academic value and theoretical significances, it was a theoretical exploration which was based on a new perspective to ensure the food safety. From the practical significances, there were important realistic significances to stabilize and improve grain production capacity, ensure food security, speed up the development of major grain-producing areas, increase farmers' income and promote the development of modern agriculture.
本文从粮食主产区空间格局变迁与粮食安全相结合的视角切入,揭示中国粮食主产区历史演变的特点与原因,探讨粮食主产区面临的主要问题,分析工业化进程中基于比较利益的粮农种粮行为选择,探索在粮农收入构成中粮食收入不断下降情况下,农户投资粮食生产的动力机制,为制定国家粮食安全战略和建立粮食主产区可持续发展长效机制提供理论依据和实证支持。
本文共分为八章,主要研究内容和结论如下：
第一章为本文的导论。阐明本文的选题依据、研究目标、研究内容、研究方法和技术路线等,对国内外相关研究进行评述,界定论文中涉及的基本概念和研究范围,并对本文所依据的理论基础进行系统阐述。
第二章为中国粮食主产区的演变。从分析中国粮食主产区演变的历史进程入手,概括总结中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的特征,实证研究中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的影响因素,探寻带来这种变化的主要原因。研究结果表明,新中国成立以来,中国粮食主产区空间格局发生了较大变化。这种变化体现在生产格局和流通格局两个方面。从中国粮食生产格局变迁看,全国粮食生产区域由南方持续向北方转移,由东部、西部逐渐向中部推进,其中东南沿海区粮食生产急剧萎缩,东北区和黄淮海区形成了全国粮食增长中心,粮食主产区的边界明显地呈现出缩小趋势。从中国粮食流通格局变迁看,伴随着粮食调运由计划调拨到市场调节的变化,中国粮食流向流量发生了由南粮北调向北粮南运的转变。中国粮食主产区空间格局的变化表现出显著特点：第一,粮食主产区在空间上相对集中；第二,粮食生产与人口分布的地域分异加剧；第三,粮食主产区向经济滞后区域集中；第四,粮食主产区与主销区的空间距离加大。中国粮食主产区空间格局的变化是伴随着我国经济改革而发生的,这种变化的形成包含着复杂而深刻的经济与社会多重原因。第一,种粮比较效益相对低下是粮食主产区萎缩的基本原因；第二,市场化、国际化、工业化和城镇化进程的区域差异性是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的重要原因；第三,人地矛盾是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的客观原因；第四,社会需求拉动是粮食主产区空间格局变迁的市场动因；第五,农业科技进步为粮食主产区空间格局变迁提供了推动力。
第三章为中国粮食主产区差异分析。首先,运用因子分析方法对目前中国13个粮食主产区的区域经济差异进行综合评价。其次,采用比较分析方法分别从粮食生产能力和商品化程度两个方面对粮食主产区的内部差异进行深入探讨。研究发现,粮食主产区内部各省(区)的经济发展状况呈现出梯度特征,其中江苏、山东、辽宁和河北的经济发展水平高于粮食主产区平均水平,其它9省(区)的经济发展水平低于粮食主产区平均水平。经济发展水平较高的省份,其粮食商品化程度并不高。值得关注的是四川、湖北两省的人均粮食占有量比全国平均水平还要低。粮食商品化程度显著高于全国平均水平的黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省(区),其粮食产量波动系数均高于全国平均水平1倍以上,说明我国主要的商品粮输出省份粮食生产的稳定性极差。
第四章为中国粮食主产区发展面临的问题。目前,中国粮食主产区发展主要面临着粮食主产区利益流失、区域经济发展滞后、粮食流通体系不顺畅、土地经营规模狭小粮农种粮行为的工业化“效应”凸显等问题。
第五章为工业化进程中农户种粮行为实证分析。结合研究目的,参考已有研究成果,根据实地调研情况,首先运用VAR模型以浙江省为例分析工业化进程中农户的“轻粮”行为。其次运用Logistic模型以吉林省为例分析工业化进程中粮食主产区农户种粮意愿的影响因素。最后在上述分析基础上选用固定效应模型,采用最小二乘法对粮食主产区农户收入与其农业生产性投资的关系进行实证检验,并据此对未来种粮行为进行预期。分析结果表明,对于处于工业化中后期阶段的农户而言,相对收益的变化是影响种粮行为的重要因素且对农户种粮行为具有负效应,即在工业化充分发展的条件下,随着土地外收入成为农民收入的主体,农民种粮积极性将明显下降。对于处于工业化中前期阶段的农户而言,种粮决策者的年龄、种粮决策者的受教育程度、粮食价格、农资价格、种粮收入占总收入比重、粮食补贴政策等因素都会对农户种粮行为产生影响。其中种粮决策者的年龄、粮食价格、种粮收入占总收入比重和粮食补贴政策对农户种粮行为产生正向影响,种粮决策者的受教育程度和农资价格对农户种粮行为产生负向影响。根据以上分析可以发现,无论是处于工业化中后期阶段的农户还是处于工业化中前期阶段的农户,相对收益的变化对其种粮行为均有重要影响。通过预测得出：当粮食主产区农户第一产业收入占家庭收入比重下降到1/5时,农户农业生产性投资占其总支出的比重只有1/10左右,说明在这一“时刻”,农民不再关心土地的收益甚至会发生弃耕行为。
第六章为中国粮食主产区支持政策。粮食主产区的发展离不开国家的政策支持,因此有必要对粮食主产区的支持政策进行回顾、梳理和评价,提出调整与优化粮食主产区支持政策的措施。改革开放以来,特别是从2004年开始,国家围绕生产要素、生产主体和产品市场从资源保障、物质装备、科技支撑、生产经营、收入支持、风险抗御、加工转化和市场调控等方面搭建起了粮食主产区支持政策体系的基本框架。现阶段,粮食主产区支持政策体系无论在政策内涵上,抑或是在外延上,都有了明显的变化和发展。政策的实施取得了较好的效果,但与建设现代农业、建设社会主义新农村的需要相比,仍存在政策补贴标准偏低,支持力度不够；政策利益主体多元化,执行成本较高；政策功能不强,支持体系不健全；配套政策不利于调动粮食主产区地方政府粮食生产的积极性；政策忽视了粮食主产区经济的全面发展等问题。为了促进粮食生产长远稳定发展,构建国家粮食安全长效机制,必须建立稳定而长效的粮食主产区支持政策体系,进一步加大政策支持力度,扩大政策支持范围,转变政策支持方式。
第七章为中国粮食主产区发展预期。要实现粮食主产区的健康发展,必须结合粮食主产区发展的现实和未来的需要,科学确定粮食主产区的战略定位,制定粮食主产区的发展目标,明确粮食主产区可持续发展的条件。为此必须要强化粮食主产区粮食生产的要素基础,不断加强自然基础要素,增加人工投入要素,提升效率要素等。
第八章为本文的结论与建议部分。在对论文研究结果进行总结的基础上,提出中国粮食主产区可持续发展的建议,为政府相关部门决策的制定提供参考。
本论文从宏观、中观和微观三个层次分析国家、地方政府、农民经济利益及其行为相互影响关系,从多视角探讨粮食主产区变迁问题。从综合经济实力、粮食生产能力、粮食商品化程度等角度建立评价指标体系,对目前中国13个粮食主产区的内部差异进行分析,以期对未来粮食主产区的发展定位提供理论依据。以工业化进程中,随着农民兼业化程度的提高,粮食生产的商品意义和收入意义越来越淡化,粮食主产区农民会演化成较严重的“轻粮”行为为背景,探讨未来如何调动粮食主产区农民种粮积极性,确保国家的粮食安全问题。从学术价值、理论意义看,这是基于新的视角关于粮食主产区确保粮食安全研究的理论探索。从实践意义看,本论文对巩固和提高我国粮食综合生产能力,确保国家粮食安全,加快粮食主产区发展,促进农民增收,推进现代农业发展具有十分重要的现实意义。
Food safety is an important issue related to national interest and people's livelihood. Especially for China, with1.3billion people, food security issue is particularly important. Since the founding of new China, China has created a miracle that9%of the world's arable land and6%of the fresh water feed20%of the world's population. Although China has made great achievement in food production, the basis of China's food security is not stable. With the decreasing of the marginal benefit of agricultural policies and the change of China's macro-economic situation, China's grain production is also not good. Major grain producing areas are the core areas of China's commodity grain, which play a decisive role in ensuring the effective supply of China's main agricultural products. Once the major grain-producing areas have problems, they will directly endanger the country's food security and social stability. Since the1980s, China's major grain producing areas have showed a shrinking trend. This change was the result of multiple factors which contain nature, economics, science, technology and so on. Not only in the past, but now, even in the future, evolution and development of China's major grain-producing areas would be a great impact on China's food security.
This paper, cutting from the perspective of changes in spatial patterns of major grain producing areas and food security, revealed the characteristics and reasons of historical evolution of China's major grain-producing areas, discussed the main problems of major grain-producing areas, analyzed the choice of behavior of farming in the process of industrialization, which based on comparative advantage, explored impetus mechanism of farmers investing grain production in the situation of grain income declining, provided a theoretical basis and empirical support for establishing long-term mechanism of sustainable development of major grain-producing areas and formulating national food security strategy.
This paper is composed of eight chapters, Main contents and conclusions are as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It introduced the significance, objectives, contents, methodology and technical route, reviewed relevant research, defined the basic concepts and research scope, fonnulated the theoretical basis.
The second chapter is the change of China's major grain-producing areas. Based on the analysis of the historical process of evolution in the China's major grain-producing areas, this paper summed up the characteristics of spatial pattern change, empirically studied the influence factors of spatial pattern change and explored main reasons. The results of the study showed that since the founding of new China, spatial pattern of China's major grain-producing areas had undergone great changes. This change reflected in two aspects, production pattern and circulation patterns. From the change of China's grain production pattern change, the grain production areas had transferred from south to north, from east and west to the central. Food production of southeast coastal areas had sharply narrowed. Northeast and Huang-Huai regions had formed the national grain growth center. The boundary of major grain-producing areas had evidently emerged narrow trend. From the change of China's grain circulation pattern, with the grain transport from plan allocation to market regulation, China's grain flow changed from "south to north" to "north to south" The changes of China's major grain-producing areas showed marked characteristics:First, space of the major grain-producing areas is relatively concentrated. Second, regional differentiation of grain production and population distribution is intensified. Third, major grain-producing areas are concentrated to economy lagging regions. Fourth, the space distance between major grain-producing areas and grain-marketing areas is increased. The space pattern changes in China's major grain-producing areas are accompanied by China's economic reform. These kinds of changes contain complex and profound economic and social reasons. First, the grain comparative benefits low is the basic reason. Second, regional differences of market、 internationalization industrialization and urbanization is an important reason. Third, the contradiction between human and land is the objective reason. Fourth, social demand is the marketable reason. Fifth, agricultural technological progress provides driving force.
The third chapter is the internal difference analysis of China's major grain-producing areas. First of all, using the factor analysis method made a comprehensive evaluation of regional economic disparities of China's13major grain-producing areas. Secondly, using the comparative analysis method discussed the internal differences of major grain-producing areas from two aspects, grain production capacity and commercialization degree. Research showed that economic development of the provinces (autonomous regions) of major grain-producing areas presented gradient feature. The economic development in Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning and Hebei were higher than average. The other provinces (autonomous regions) were lower than average. Grain commercialization of provinces with higher levels of economic development was not high. It was noteworthy that the per capita shares of grain were even lower than the national average in Sichuan and Hubei provinces. Grain commercialization degree in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Inner Mongolia were significantly higher than the national average level. Their fluctuation coefficients of grain yield were higher than the national average, which showed that the stability of grain production were very poor in major grain production provinces.
The forth chapter covers the issues that the major grain-producing areas faced. The issues included interest loss of China's major grain-producing areas, lagging of regional economic development, obstacle of the grain circulation system, small-scale land, industrialization "effect" of farmers producing behavior and so on.
The fifth chapter is the positive analysis of the farmers growing grain in the industrialization process. Combining research purposes, referring to the exist results and according to field research situation, the paper firstly taking Zhejiang province for example analyzed farm households'growing grain behavior in the process of industrialization by VAR model. Secondly, taking Jilin province for example, the paper analyzed the influenced factors of farmers'willingness to grow grain in the process of industrialization by logistic model. Finally, according to the above research results, on the basis of fixed effects model, the paper examined the relation between the farmer's income and the agricultural investment by the method of OLS, and predicted the farmer's growing grain behavior. The results showed that, for the farmers who were in the middle and last process of industrializing, change of relative income was important factor that affected the behavior of growing grain. And the change had negative effects.Under full development of industrialization, with non-farm income becoming the main income of the farmers, the enthusiasm of farmers' growing grain would be significantly reduced. For the farmers who were in the first and middle process of industrializing, the farmer's age、the farmer's educational level、grain price、the agricultural investment cost、the proportion of income of growing grain in total income and the grain subsidies policy and so on would affect the behavior of farmers' growing grain. The farmer's age、grain prices、the proportion of income of growing grain in total income and grain subsidies policy had positive influence. The farmer's educational level and the agricultural investment cost had negative influence. Through the analysis, it showed that change of relative income had important influence. When the proportion of the primary industry income of farmers' household in the major grain-producing areas dropped to1/5, the agricultural production investment would account for only about1/10of all spending. In this "moment", farmers would no longer concern about the return of land, even abandon arable land.
The sixth chapter gives the support policies of China's major grain-producing areas. The development of major grain-producing areas can not be off national policy support. So it is necessary to review, sort out and evaluate the support policies of major grain-producing areas, propose measures of adjusting and optimizing support policies of major grain-producing areas. Since reform and opening-up, especially since2004, China has built the basic framework of the support policy system for major grain-producing areas around the factors of production, producer and product markets from the resource security, substance equipment, technological support, production and management, income support, risk resilience, processing and conversion, and market regulation and so on. At present, there is a significant change and development for support policy system of major grain-producing areas on the connotation of policy or on the extension. Implementation of the policy has achieved good results. But compared with the construction of modern agriculture and the needs of construction of new socialist countryside, there are still many problems that standard of policy subsidies is lower, cost of implementation is higher, support system is not perfect, matching policy can not initiate the enthusiasm of local government and so on. In order to promote long-term stable development of grain production and build long-term mechanism of the national food security, we need to establish stable and long-term support policy system for major grain-producing areas, further increase policy support, expand the scope of policy support and change policy support mode.
In the seventh chapter, development of China's major grain-producing areas is expected. To achieve the healthy development of major grain-producing areas, it is must combined with the reality and future needs of development of major grain-producing areas, scientifically determine the strategic position of major grain-producing areas, formulate the development goals of major grain-producing areas, clear the conditions for sustainable development of major grain-producing areas. Therefore, it must strengthen the element basis of grain production of major grain-producing areas, including strengthening elements of the natural basis, increasing labor input, enhancing efficiency of elements and so on.
The last chapter covers conclusions and policy implications. On the basis of the research results, this dissertation puts forward some measures for sustainable development of China's major grain-producing areas. It puts forward recommendations for relevant government department.
This paper analyzed the interrelation of economic interests and their behavior about the nation, local government and farmers from the macro, meso and micro levels, and discussed the changes of the major grain-producing areas from many aspects. In order to providing theoretical basis for the future development of major grain-producing areas, the evaluation system was established from the comprehensive economic strength, grain production capacity and grain commercialization degree. And the internal differences of the current13major grain-producing areas were analyzed. In the process of industrialization, with the improvement of the concurrent-business degree of farmers, the commodity meaning and income significance of grain production would have became more and more unimportant, the farmers of major grain-producing areas would have grown into the serious behavior of abandoning grain production. Taking it as a background, the paper discussed how to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers and ensure the country's food safety. From the academic value and theoretical significances, it was a theoretical exploration which was based on a new perspective to ensure the food safety. From the practical significances, there were important realistic significances to stabilize and improve grain production capacity, ensure food security, speed up the development of major grain-producing areas, increase farmers' income and promote the development of modern agriculture.
引文
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