辽宁省社会经济活动影响环境污染的压力机制研究
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摘要
渤海环境污染严重,发展趋势令人担忧,陆源污染物占入海污染物的80%以上,减少陆域污染源排放是解决渤海污染的根本,而社会经济活动影响环境污染的压力机制研究是解决污染问题的突破口,通过辽宁省社会经济活动对环境污染的影响研究,不仅可以分析陆域环境污染的社会经济影响压力机制,也是对辽东湾乃至整个渤海的海洋环境污染压力的探索性研究。本文以辽宁省为空间范围,以COD、氨氮和重金属三类污染物为研究对象,从污染产生的社会经济活动来源构成为切入点,研究污染排放与各类社会经济活动的关系,并评估未来社会经济发展对环境带来的压力。研究结论可为辽宁陆域和渤海海洋环境污染治理提供参考,也可为我国其他流域、湖泊、海域污染的治理提供有意义的借鉴。论文研究内容及结论如下：
(1)构建了影响COD、氨氮和重金属污染排放的社会经济指标体系。在追溯各污染物入海途径的基础上,划分影响三类污染物排放的社会经济活动类型,系统分析各类社会经济活动的污染产生与排放系数,结合污染源规模,筛选污染贡献大,可操作性,获取相对容易的社会经济指标,构建了影响COD、氨氮和重金属污染排放的社会经济指标体系。
(2)以7个重金属重点排放行业的6905家企业为研究对象,分析了辽宁重金属污染物的来源特征与风险的空间分布。结果表明,六价铬的等标污染负荷最大,其次为砷、汞、铅和镉,其中六价铬、砷和汞的污染负荷量差别并不大；有色金属加工业、有色金属矿采选业和金属制品业的空间分布在很大程度上决定了辽宁重金属污染的空间分布,各地市重金属污染的风险从高到低依次是：葫芦岛>沈阳>开原>锦州>辽阳>抚顺>大连>营口。重金属污染重在防范,以企业类型、规模与布局为视角的重金属污染风险研究,将重金属污染的风险管理由实际污染风险管理转变为对潜在污染风险的管理,是落实重金属污染防范工作的一种尝试。
(3)在影响污染物排放的社会经济指标体系构建基础上,以2010年为横截面,分别从工业生产、城镇生活和农业农村三方面估算并分析了辽宁COD和氨氮污染的排放量与空间分布特征,研究结果表明,居民生活和畜禽养殖业排放是COD和氨氮污染的主要来源,工业污染对COD和氨氮污染的贡献仅分别占11%和5%,可见,工业已不是COD和氨氮的主要污染源;结合1981～2010年污染排放及社会经济指标的变化趋势,利用脉冲响应函数分析了社会经济增长与COD和氨氮污染排放的关系,结果表明,近30年来,不同类型的社会经济发展对COD污染的贡献地位发生了变化,污染贡献次序由之前的农业>工业>城镇居民生活,转变为农业>城镇居民生活>工业；对氨氮污染而言,污染贡献次序由工业>农业>城镇生活,转变为农业>城镇生活>工业。其中农业生产结构的改变和规模的提高是推动农业污染快速增大的最主要原因,快速城市化进程是城镇居民生活污染增加的驱动力,生产技术水平的提高和污染治理规模的扩大促使工业污染的快速下降,而工业规模的扩大对工业污染的贡献已不显著。
(4)在社会经济活动对环境污染影响的压力机制研究基础上,利用方差分解估算了各社会经济因子对污染物排放变化的相对贡献度,借助相对贡献率构造了污染物排放的社会经济影响压力指数,并在社会经济发展的不同情景下,对2011～2020年的COD和氨氮污染排放压力进行了情景模拟。结果表明,未来10年,COD污染排放总量在波动中上升,短期内将保持高位稳定,氨氮排放总量缓慢下降,其中工业和城镇生活污染排放压力逐渐减少,农业农村污染排放总量保持线性增长趋势。该研究为污染治理工作目标的确定带来启示,也为污染治理政策的制定提供了参考。
The pressure mechanism of socio-economic activities on environmental pollution is a breakthrough to solve the pollution problem. This dissertation mainly studies the impact of socio-economic activities on environmental pollution in Liaoning Province, we not only deeply analyse the socio-economic pressure mechanism on land environmental pollution in Liaohe basin, but also develop an exploratory study on the pressure mechanism on marine environmental pollution in Liaodong Bay and Bohai Sea. As we all know, Bohai Sea has serious environmental pollution with a worrying upward trend. The related data indicate that the land pollution sources do account for more than80%of marine pollutants. So the reduction of land pollution emission is fundamental to solve the Bohai pollution. The dissertation takes the COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollutants as the study object in Liaoning Province. We study the structure and spatial distribution of the socio-economic sources of pollutants, analyze the relationship between the environmental pollution pressure and socio-economic activities, and estimate the future environmental pressures and risks with all kinds of socio-economic activities. The Conclusions can provide a reference for land and marine environmental pollution control and will be meaningful for the other river basins, lakes, and sea pollution control. The contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) We construct the socio-economic indicator system with impact on the COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollution emission. Specifically, based on the systematic summary of the pollutant production and emission coefficients from socio-economic activities and according to the ways of pollutants into the sea, the types of socio-economic activities were distinguished. Then combined with the discharge coefficient and the scale of pollution sources, the operational and available socio-economic indicators are selected and the indicator system are constructed for COD. ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollution emissions.
(2) The dissertation focuses on seven important industries for heavy metals pollution with the data of6905companies and analyses the pollution sources and the spatial distribution of heavy metal risk in Liaoning Province. The results show that the standard pollution load of hexavalent was the largest followed by arsenic, mercury, lead and cadmium. Moreover, there is little difference among the pollution load of the hexavalent chromium, arsenic and mercury. The spatial distribution of non-ferrous metal processing, non-ferrous metal mining and fabricated metal products industry largely determine the distribution of heavy metal pollution in Liaoning Province. The pollution risk of the heavy metal around the cities is in descending order:Huludao> Shenyang> Kaiyuan> Jinzhou>Dalian> Liaoyang> Fushun> Yingkou.
(3) Based on the sectional data of2010, the pollution emissions of COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals are estimated in the three areas of industrial production, urban life and agriculture&rural. We analyze the structure and the spatial distribution of the socio-economic pressures on the pollutants. Combined with the time-series data of pollution emissions and socio-economy, the impulse response function is used to analyze the relationship between the socio-economic growth and pollutants including COD and ammonia-nitrogen. We analyze the relative contribution of the various socio-economic indicators to the pollutant emissions of COD and ammonia-nitrogen. Furthermore we study the economic development characteristics at the declining inflection point for COD and ammonia-nitrogen. We identified a pressure mechanism of socio-economic development on pollutant emissions.
(4) On the basis of the study on the pressure mechanism of socio-economic activities on environment pollution, the contributions of socio-economic factors on pollutant are analyzed. With the related contribution rates, the dissertation constructs a socio-economic pressure index on pollutant emissions. Different scenarios of socio-economic development and future COD and ammonia-nitrogen emission are simulated. The results show that from2011to2020, the total COD emission rises in volatility and will remain high in the short term. However there will be a slow decline in the total ammonia-nitrogen emissions. Emission pressure from industry and urban life will gradually reduce, but the agricultural&rural will remain to show a trend of linear growth.
(1)构建了影响COD、氨氮和重金属污染排放的社会经济指标体系。在追溯各污染物入海途径的基础上,划分影响三类污染物排放的社会经济活动类型,系统分析各类社会经济活动的污染产生与排放系数,结合污染源规模,筛选污染贡献大,可操作性,获取相对容易的社会经济指标,构建了影响COD、氨氮和重金属污染排放的社会经济指标体系。
(2)以7个重金属重点排放行业的6905家企业为研究对象,分析了辽宁重金属污染物的来源特征与风险的空间分布。结果表明,六价铬的等标污染负荷最大,其次为砷、汞、铅和镉,其中六价铬、砷和汞的污染负荷量差别并不大；有色金属加工业、有色金属矿采选业和金属制品业的空间分布在很大程度上决定了辽宁重金属污染的空间分布,各地市重金属污染的风险从高到低依次是：葫芦岛>沈阳>开原>锦州>辽阳>抚顺>大连>营口。重金属污染重在防范,以企业类型、规模与布局为视角的重金属污染风险研究,将重金属污染的风险管理由实际污染风险管理转变为对潜在污染风险的管理,是落实重金属污染防范工作的一种尝试。
(3)在影响污染物排放的社会经济指标体系构建基础上,以2010年为横截面,分别从工业生产、城镇生活和农业农村三方面估算并分析了辽宁COD和氨氮污染的排放量与空间分布特征,研究结果表明,居民生活和畜禽养殖业排放是COD和氨氮污染的主要来源,工业污染对COD和氨氮污染的贡献仅分别占11%和5%,可见,工业已不是COD和氨氮的主要污染源;结合1981～2010年污染排放及社会经济指标的变化趋势,利用脉冲响应函数分析了社会经济增长与COD和氨氮污染排放的关系,结果表明,近30年来,不同类型的社会经济发展对COD污染的贡献地位发生了变化,污染贡献次序由之前的农业>工业>城镇居民生活,转变为农业>城镇居民生活>工业；对氨氮污染而言,污染贡献次序由工业>农业>城镇生活,转变为农业>城镇生活>工业。其中农业生产结构的改变和规模的提高是推动农业污染快速增大的最主要原因,快速城市化进程是城镇居民生活污染增加的驱动力,生产技术水平的提高和污染治理规模的扩大促使工业污染的快速下降,而工业规模的扩大对工业污染的贡献已不显著。
(4)在社会经济活动对环境污染影响的压力机制研究基础上,利用方差分解估算了各社会经济因子对污染物排放变化的相对贡献度,借助相对贡献率构造了污染物排放的社会经济影响压力指数,并在社会经济发展的不同情景下,对2011～2020年的COD和氨氮污染排放压力进行了情景模拟。结果表明,未来10年,COD污染排放总量在波动中上升,短期内将保持高位稳定,氨氮排放总量缓慢下降,其中工业和城镇生活污染排放压力逐渐减少,农业农村污染排放总量保持线性增长趋势。该研究为污染治理工作目标的确定带来启示,也为污染治理政策的制定提供了参考。
The pressure mechanism of socio-economic activities on environmental pollution is a breakthrough to solve the pollution problem. This dissertation mainly studies the impact of socio-economic activities on environmental pollution in Liaoning Province, we not only deeply analyse the socio-economic pressure mechanism on land environmental pollution in Liaohe basin, but also develop an exploratory study on the pressure mechanism on marine environmental pollution in Liaodong Bay and Bohai Sea. As we all know, Bohai Sea has serious environmental pollution with a worrying upward trend. The related data indicate that the land pollution sources do account for more than80%of marine pollutants. So the reduction of land pollution emission is fundamental to solve the Bohai pollution. The dissertation takes the COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollutants as the study object in Liaoning Province. We study the structure and spatial distribution of the socio-economic sources of pollutants, analyze the relationship between the environmental pollution pressure and socio-economic activities, and estimate the future environmental pressures and risks with all kinds of socio-economic activities. The Conclusions can provide a reference for land and marine environmental pollution control and will be meaningful for the other river basins, lakes, and sea pollution control. The contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1) We construct the socio-economic indicator system with impact on the COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollution emission. Specifically, based on the systematic summary of the pollutant production and emission coefficients from socio-economic activities and according to the ways of pollutants into the sea, the types of socio-economic activities were distinguished. Then combined with the discharge coefficient and the scale of pollution sources, the operational and available socio-economic indicators are selected and the indicator system are constructed for COD. ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals pollution emissions.
(2) The dissertation focuses on seven important industries for heavy metals pollution with the data of6905companies and analyses the pollution sources and the spatial distribution of heavy metal risk in Liaoning Province. The results show that the standard pollution load of hexavalent was the largest followed by arsenic, mercury, lead and cadmium. Moreover, there is little difference among the pollution load of the hexavalent chromium, arsenic and mercury. The spatial distribution of non-ferrous metal processing, non-ferrous metal mining and fabricated metal products industry largely determine the distribution of heavy metal pollution in Liaoning Province. The pollution risk of the heavy metal around the cities is in descending order:Huludao> Shenyang> Kaiyuan> Jinzhou>Dalian> Liaoyang> Fushun> Yingkou.
(3) Based on the sectional data of2010, the pollution emissions of COD, ammonia-nitrogen and heavy metals are estimated in the three areas of industrial production, urban life and agriculture&rural. We analyze the structure and the spatial distribution of the socio-economic pressures on the pollutants. Combined with the time-series data of pollution emissions and socio-economy, the impulse response function is used to analyze the relationship between the socio-economic growth and pollutants including COD and ammonia-nitrogen. We analyze the relative contribution of the various socio-economic indicators to the pollutant emissions of COD and ammonia-nitrogen. Furthermore we study the economic development characteristics at the declining inflection point for COD and ammonia-nitrogen. We identified a pressure mechanism of socio-economic development on pollutant emissions.
(4) On the basis of the study on the pressure mechanism of socio-economic activities on environment pollution, the contributions of socio-economic factors on pollutant are analyzed. With the related contribution rates, the dissertation constructs a socio-economic pressure index on pollutant emissions. Different scenarios of socio-economic development and future COD and ammonia-nitrogen emission are simulated. The results show that from2011to2020, the total COD emission rises in volatility and will remain high in the short term. However there will be a slow decline in the total ammonia-nitrogen emissions. Emission pressure from industry and urban life will gradually reduce, but the agricultural&rural will remain to show a trend of linear growth.
引文
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