煤矿安全生产风险预警研究
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摘要
中国煤矿行业是一个高危行业，频发的煤矿事故给国家和人民造成了极大的损失，严重影响了和谐社会的建设，并在国际社会上产生了恶劣的影响。在煤矿安全生产管理中，改变目前被动的、经验式的安全管理模式，进而实施主动的、全面风险预警的安全管理模式是有效的解决中国目前煤矿事故频发的关键。煤矿安全生产风险预警是在从定性到定量综合集成方法的指导下，全面收集煤矿风险信息，通过相应的预警知识规则和预警模型提前判断系统的风险状态，达到对当前的不可接受风险进行及时报警、对未来的风险进行实时预警的目的，同时依据预警结果提前做好防控措施，从而消除、减少与控制煤矿事故。实施煤矿安全生产风险预警对贯彻“安全第一、预防为主、综合治理”的安全生产方针，改善目前严峻的煤矿安全生产形势具有重要意义。
本文以复杂性理论为指导思想，以从定性到定量的综合集成方法为指导方法，融合复杂性科学理论、风险预警理论、安全科学理论、数据挖掘技术等多种理论与方法，结合实证分析，对煤矿安全生产风险预警的相关知识进行了系统的研究。
首先，研究了煤矿事故的复杂性演化机制，提出了煤矿风险状态预警的新思路。通过分析煤矿生产系统的复杂性特征，认为煤矿生产系统是一个耗散结构系统，更是一个复杂巨系统，从定性到定量综合集成方法是目前解决此类问题的最有效方法，将其作为煤矿风险预警的指导方法；以自组织临界性理论为依据，分别对煤矿死亡事故、由瓦斯引起的死亡事故的幂律关系进行了分析，结果表明中国煤矿事故具有自组织临界性特征；依据煤矿的复杂性特征提出了煤矿风险状态预警的思想，将系统的风险状态分为远离临界态、临界态和超临界态三种状态：煤矿安全生产系统中的风险状态在远离临界态的暂稳态中不断变化，这种变化是一种可预测和可控的变化；临界态是系统风险状态演化的特殊形式，在临界态风险的演化可能是突变的，这种演化是不可预测的，因此临界态的风险是煤矿风险预警的防控重点；超临界态是临界态的进一步正向发展，此时表示系统必然会发生事故，必须立即报警。风险预警的防控措施就是保证系统的风险状态始终保持在远离临界态的暂稳态中。
其次，研究并初步建立了煤矿风险预警的理论体系。依据“治未病”原理分析了适合煤矿风险预警的“辨证论治”方法；依据风险预警的特点提出了显性危险源和隐性危险源的概念；提出了“以人为本、预防为主、及时适时”的风险预警原则；确立了明确警义-寻找警源-分析警兆-预报警度-防控警情的风险预警程序和煤矿风险预警的方法。
第三，研究了建立煤矿风险预警指标体系的相关内容。结合层次分析法和集对分析法提出了一种获取指标主观权重的层次-集对分析法，研究了基于粗糙集理论的客观权重获取方法，结合粗糙集和信息熵理论，提出了一种获取客观权重的改进熵权分析法，并分别用实例进行了分析和验证；从人、机、环与管理四个方面，建立了煤矿隐性风险预警的指标体系，并用模糊数学方法确定了指标体系的隶属度函数。
第四，基于数据挖掘技术建立了煤矿风险预警知识库。提出利用产生式表示法和框架表示法表示煤矿风险预警知识，产生式表示法适合表示显性风险知识，框架表示法则适合表示隐性风险知识；针对产生式表示法，以决策树CART和C5.0为代表进行了风险预警的实证研究，针对框架表示法，以基于案例的推理方法为代表进行了风险预警的实证研究。
最后，研究并提出了基于集对分析理论的风险预警模型。针对风险的不确定性特征，从联系度对煤矿风险的不确定性描述方面分析了联系度对系统宏观与微观演化的状态描述，并利用突变模型对联系度的不确定性区间进行了分析；对显性风险源提出了三级警度的集对分析模型，对隐性风险源提出了五级警度的集对分析模型，并用实例进行了验证。
The industry of coal mine is a high risk industry in China, the frequent occurrenceof coal mine accidents caused a great loss to the country and people, which seriouslyaffect the construction of harmonious society, it also had a bad influence in internationalcommunity. In the management of coal mine safety production, changing the passiveand the empirical mode of safety management to the proactive and the comprehensiverisk early-warning model is the key to solve the frequent occurrence of coal mineaccidents effectively in China. Meta-synthesis method from qualitative to quantitative isregarded as risk early warning guidance in mine safety production, on the basis ofcollecting comprehensive risk information, judge risk state of system in advance bywarning knowledge rules and warning models, then achieve the goal of alarm in timeabout current unacceptable risks and real-time warning about future risks. Preventionand control measures can be taken in advance based on the results of early warning, sothe coal mine accidents can be eliminated, reduced and controlled. Implementing riskearly-warning in mine safety production has great significance in implementing thepolicy of the safety production, which is Safety First, Prevention Primary,Comprehensive Treatment, it also has great significance in improving the currentserious situation of safe production in coal mine.
In this paper, complexity theory is regarded as guiding ideology, meta-synthesismethod from qualitative to quantitative is regarded as supervising method, and itintegrates many theories and methods, such as, complex science theory, risk earlywarning theory, data mining technology, combined with the empirical analysis, theknowledge of risk early warning in coal mine safety production was studied.
First, the complex evolution mechanism of coal mine disasters was studied, thenproposed a new method of early warning on risk state. By analyzing the complexcharacter of mining production system we can find that mining production system is notonly a dissipative structure system, but also a complex giant system, meta-synthesismethod from qualitative to quantitative is the most effective way to solve this problem,so this method is regarded as supervising method of risk early warning; Based on thetheory of self-organized criticality, analyzed the power rate about accidents of peopledied in coal mine and people died in coal mine by gas, the results showed that there is acharacter of self-organized criticality in Chinese coal mine accidents; According to the complex character of coal mine, put forward a idea of early warning on risk state, therisk state of system is divided into three states, they are far away from critical state,critical state and supercritical state, the risk state of system about coal mine safetyproduction is constantly changing during transient and steady state in far away fromcritical state, but those changes can be predicted and controlled; The critical state is aspecial form about the evolution of risk states, the evolution of risk state in critical statemay be mutation, this evolution is unpredictable, so the risk in critical state is the key toprevent and control. The supercritical state is the further positive development of criticalstate, at this state, coal mine accident must occur and must be alarmed at once. Theprevention and control in early warning is to ensure that the risk state must keep intransient and steady state during far away from the critical state all times.
Second, the theoretical system of the risk early warning in coal mine was studiedand preliminarily established. According to the principle of ‘preventive treatment ofdisease’, analyzed the risk early warning method of ‘syndrome differentiation andtreatment’ in coal mine; The concept of dominant risk source and recessive risk sourcewere proposed by risk early-warning features; Put forward the risk early warningprinciples, which are Human-oriented, Prevention First, Timely and in Time;Established the procedure of risk early warning, they are marking the alert meaning,seeking the alert source, analyzing the alert symptom, forecasting the alarming degreeand putting prevention and control, and established the method of risk early warning.
Third, the establishment of risk early-warning index system in coal mine wasstudied. Put forward a method to get subjective weight by combining analytic hierarchyprocess (AHP) with set-pair analysis, studied the method to get the objective weightbased on rough set theory, and put forward a method to get objective weight bycombining rough set theory with information entropy theory, then used examples toanalyze and validate; The indexes system of recessive risk were set up by four riskfactors,they are people, machine, environment and management, then the membershipfunction of system indexes were established by fuzzy mathematics method.
Fourth, the establishment of knowledge base about risk early warning in coal minewas studied on the base of data mining technology. Proposed the representation of riskearly warning in coal mine, they are production representation and frame representation.Production representation is suitable for dominant risk representation, and framerepresentation is suitable for recessive risk representation; Point to productionrepresentation, the decision tree such as classification and regression tree(CART)& C5.0were used to empirical study about risk early warning. Point to framerepresentation, case-based reasoning (CBR) was used to empirical study about risk earlywarning.
Finally, the risk early warning model based on set-pair analysis theory was studied.Point to the uncertain feature of risk, analyzed the description of risk state byconnection degree based on the description of macro and micro evolution, and analyzedthe uncertain interval of connection degree by catastrophe model; proposed thirdwarning degree for dominant risk and fifth warning degree for recessive risk base onset-pair analysis model, then verified by examples.
本文以复杂性理论为指导思想，以从定性到定量的综合集成方法为指导方法，融合复杂性科学理论、风险预警理论、安全科学理论、数据挖掘技术等多种理论与方法，结合实证分析，对煤矿安全生产风险预警的相关知识进行了系统的研究。
首先，研究了煤矿事故的复杂性演化机制，提出了煤矿风险状态预警的新思路。通过分析煤矿生产系统的复杂性特征，认为煤矿生产系统是一个耗散结构系统，更是一个复杂巨系统，从定性到定量综合集成方法是目前解决此类问题的最有效方法，将其作为煤矿风险预警的指导方法；以自组织临界性理论为依据，分别对煤矿死亡事故、由瓦斯引起的死亡事故的幂律关系进行了分析，结果表明中国煤矿事故具有自组织临界性特征；依据煤矿的复杂性特征提出了煤矿风险状态预警的思想，将系统的风险状态分为远离临界态、临界态和超临界态三种状态：煤矿安全生产系统中的风险状态在远离临界态的暂稳态中不断变化，这种变化是一种可预测和可控的变化；临界态是系统风险状态演化的特殊形式，在临界态风险的演化可能是突变的，这种演化是不可预测的，因此临界态的风险是煤矿风险预警的防控重点；超临界态是临界态的进一步正向发展，此时表示系统必然会发生事故，必须立即报警。风险预警的防控措施就是保证系统的风险状态始终保持在远离临界态的暂稳态中。
其次，研究并初步建立了煤矿风险预警的理论体系。依据“治未病”原理分析了适合煤矿风险预警的“辨证论治”方法；依据风险预警的特点提出了显性危险源和隐性危险源的概念；提出了“以人为本、预防为主、及时适时”的风险预警原则；确立了明确警义-寻找警源-分析警兆-预报警度-防控警情的风险预警程序和煤矿风险预警的方法。
第三，研究了建立煤矿风险预警指标体系的相关内容。结合层次分析法和集对分析法提出了一种获取指标主观权重的层次-集对分析法，研究了基于粗糙集理论的客观权重获取方法，结合粗糙集和信息熵理论，提出了一种获取客观权重的改进熵权分析法，并分别用实例进行了分析和验证；从人、机、环与管理四个方面，建立了煤矿隐性风险预警的指标体系，并用模糊数学方法确定了指标体系的隶属度函数。
第四，基于数据挖掘技术建立了煤矿风险预警知识库。提出利用产生式表示法和框架表示法表示煤矿风险预警知识，产生式表示法适合表示显性风险知识，框架表示法则适合表示隐性风险知识；针对产生式表示法，以决策树CART和C5.0为代表进行了风险预警的实证研究，针对框架表示法，以基于案例的推理方法为代表进行了风险预警的实证研究。
最后，研究并提出了基于集对分析理论的风险预警模型。针对风险的不确定性特征，从联系度对煤矿风险的不确定性描述方面分析了联系度对系统宏观与微观演化的状态描述，并利用突变模型对联系度的不确定性区间进行了分析；对显性风险源提出了三级警度的集对分析模型，对隐性风险源提出了五级警度的集对分析模型，并用实例进行了验证。
The industry of coal mine is a high risk industry in China, the frequent occurrenceof coal mine accidents caused a great loss to the country and people, which seriouslyaffect the construction of harmonious society, it also had a bad influence in internationalcommunity. In the management of coal mine safety production, changing the passiveand the empirical mode of safety management to the proactive and the comprehensiverisk early-warning model is the key to solve the frequent occurrence of coal mineaccidents effectively in China. Meta-synthesis method from qualitative to quantitative isregarded as risk early warning guidance in mine safety production, on the basis ofcollecting comprehensive risk information, judge risk state of system in advance bywarning knowledge rules and warning models, then achieve the goal of alarm in timeabout current unacceptable risks and real-time warning about future risks. Preventionand control measures can be taken in advance based on the results of early warning, sothe coal mine accidents can be eliminated, reduced and controlled. Implementing riskearly-warning in mine safety production has great significance in implementing thepolicy of the safety production, which is Safety First, Prevention Primary,Comprehensive Treatment, it also has great significance in improving the currentserious situation of safe production in coal mine.
In this paper, complexity theory is regarded as guiding ideology, meta-synthesismethod from qualitative to quantitative is regarded as supervising method, and itintegrates many theories and methods, such as, complex science theory, risk earlywarning theory, data mining technology, combined with the empirical analysis, theknowledge of risk early warning in coal mine safety production was studied.
First, the complex evolution mechanism of coal mine disasters was studied, thenproposed a new method of early warning on risk state. By analyzing the complexcharacter of mining production system we can find that mining production system is notonly a dissipative structure system, but also a complex giant system, meta-synthesismethod from qualitative to quantitative is the most effective way to solve this problem,so this method is regarded as supervising method of risk early warning; Based on thetheory of self-organized criticality, analyzed the power rate about accidents of peopledied in coal mine and people died in coal mine by gas, the results showed that there is acharacter of self-organized criticality in Chinese coal mine accidents; According to the complex character of coal mine, put forward a idea of early warning on risk state, therisk state of system is divided into three states, they are far away from critical state,critical state and supercritical state, the risk state of system about coal mine safetyproduction is constantly changing during transient and steady state in far away fromcritical state, but those changes can be predicted and controlled; The critical state is aspecial form about the evolution of risk states, the evolution of risk state in critical statemay be mutation, this evolution is unpredictable, so the risk in critical state is the key toprevent and control. The supercritical state is the further positive development of criticalstate, at this state, coal mine accident must occur and must be alarmed at once. Theprevention and control in early warning is to ensure that the risk state must keep intransient and steady state during far away from the critical state all times.
Second, the theoretical system of the risk early warning in coal mine was studiedand preliminarily established. According to the principle of ‘preventive treatment ofdisease’, analyzed the risk early warning method of ‘syndrome differentiation andtreatment’ in coal mine; The concept of dominant risk source and recessive risk sourcewere proposed by risk early-warning features; Put forward the risk early warningprinciples, which are Human-oriented, Prevention First, Timely and in Time;Established the procedure of risk early warning, they are marking the alert meaning,seeking the alert source, analyzing the alert symptom, forecasting the alarming degreeand putting prevention and control, and established the method of risk early warning.
Third, the establishment of risk early-warning index system in coal mine wasstudied. Put forward a method to get subjective weight by combining analytic hierarchyprocess (AHP) with set-pair analysis, studied the method to get the objective weightbased on rough set theory, and put forward a method to get objective weight bycombining rough set theory with information entropy theory, then used examples toanalyze and validate; The indexes system of recessive risk were set up by four riskfactors,they are people, machine, environment and management, then the membershipfunction of system indexes were established by fuzzy mathematics method.
Fourth, the establishment of knowledge base about risk early warning in coal minewas studied on the base of data mining technology. Proposed the representation of riskearly warning in coal mine, they are production representation and frame representation.Production representation is suitable for dominant risk representation, and framerepresentation is suitable for recessive risk representation; Point to productionrepresentation, the decision tree such as classification and regression tree(CART)& C5.0were used to empirical study about risk early warning. Point to framerepresentation, case-based reasoning (CBR) was used to empirical study about risk earlywarning.
Finally, the risk early warning model based on set-pair analysis theory was studied.Point to the uncertain feature of risk, analyzed the description of risk state byconnection degree based on the description of macro and micro evolution, and analyzedthe uncertain interval of connection degree by catastrophe model; proposed thirdwarning degree for dominant risk and fifth warning degree for recessive risk base onset-pair analysis model, then verified by examples.
引文
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