地震灾害应急物流时变性及可靠性相关问题研究
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摘要
地震灾害是群灾之首,对人类社会造成了巨大的损失。中国是一个多地震国家,地震灾害占全球的二分之一。据统计,自1949年至2000年间,中国在自然灾害造成的人口死亡数量中,地震灾害占到了54%。强地震灾害发生后,需要大量的求援物资以维持灾区幸存者的生存、伤者的救治以及卫生防疫、家园重建等,以减少灾害造成的影响和损失。历次大地震灾害救援中,如中国2008年的四川汶川地震灾害和2010年的青海省玉树地震灾害救援过程中,暴露了应急物流存在的许多问题。因此,开展地震灾害救援应急物流问题研究具有重大的意义。
本文针对地震灾害的特征,从系统科学的角度,基于系统时变性理论、系统可靠性理论、可能性理论、图与网络理论等,对地震灾害应急物流相关问题进行了研究。具体的主要研究内容如下。
(1)对灾害、地震、地震灾害、应急管理及应急物流等相关的概念进行了介绍和界定,并对地震灾害的特征及影响进行了分析。
(2)对地震灾害应急物流系统的概念进行了分析与定义；分析了地震灾害应急物流的特征及与其它物流的区别；重点分析了地震灾害应急物流系统的构成要素、系统组织结构、功能、运作流程及生命周期,并分析了地震灾害应急物流系统运行的保障机制。
(3)对地震灾害应急物流救援物资的需求指标进行了分析,从时空的角度分析了地震灾害救援物资需求的特征。针对地震灾害的关键救援时期来自灾区的多个不同救援需求信息源的信息混乱和不确定的情况,提出了一个识别动态救援需求信息可靠性的模型。以此估算时变的救援需求量,便于救援资源的动态分配和物资配送。
(4)针对地震各个灾区不同的受灾情况及救援资源需求的紧急程度,对不同种类的救援物资分配优先权问题进行了研究。从风险管理的角度,系统地对地震灾区应急资源分配存在的风险进行了分析,利用风险优先数方法,建立了一个识别地震灾害救援需求紧急程度的动态模型,用于确定救援物资分配优先权。
(5)研究了地震灾害情况下应急物流交通运输网络可靠性问题。通过对地震灾害情况下交通运输网络可靠性的分析,基于传统GO法,并结合时变性系统的特征,用概率测度定量分析了地震灾害情况下的应急物流运输网络的可靠性。
针对地震灾害统计数据匮乏或不确定性情况,基于可能可靠性理论和GO法原理,并结合时变性系统的特征,提出了可能性GO法。用于对地震灾害情况下应急物流运输网络的可靠性进行预测。
通过对可能性GO法和传统概率GO法的比较与分析,说明了它们各自适合的应用情况,并阐明了两者的关系。
(6)研究了地震灾害情况下应急物流运输路径选择问题。分析了地震灾害应急物流运输的最短路径内涵,并应用车流波动理论研究了地震灾害下道路行程时间的计算方法。考虑到地震灾害环境下运输网络各路段的旅行时间和可靠性的时变性,并结合决策者的决策权重等因素,给出了地震灾害应急物流运输路径选择的分析和计算模型。通过仿真例子演示了模型的应用方法,验证了模型的有效性。
文章重点研究了地震灾害救援物资动态需求预测、资源配置与物流配送优选权的确定、应急物流运输网络可靠性及路径选择等4个关键问题。
主要创新点可归纳为：
(1)建立了地震灾害救援物资动态需求预测模型。在地震灾害的关键救援时期来自灾区的多个不同救援需求信息源的信息混乱和不确定的情况下,以此估算时变的救援需求量。
(2)提出了基于RPN的地震灾害救援资源动态分配优化方法,用于确定各灾区救援资源配置与物流配送优先权。
(3)提出了可能性GO法,并用于分析地震灾害应急物流运输网络的可靠性。
(4)建立了基于时变性和可靠性的地震灾害应急物流运输路径选择模型,用于应急物流运输路径选择。
以上研究成果,丰富了应急物流的理论和方法,可为地震灾害应急物流的运作方案制定提供决策参考。
Earthquake disaster is the most severe one of all disasters, which has caused huge losses to human beings. Earthquake disasters happened in China accounted for half of all the earthquake disasters in the world. It was reported that the death caused by earthquake disaster accounted for54%of all the death caused by natural disasters from1949to2000in China. When a great earthquake disaster happens, in the disaster area, a lot of relief supplies are required to maintain the survival of the survivors, the treatment for the injured, epidemic prevention, and disaster area reestablishment in the disaster area, which are aiming to reduce the loss and the impact of the disaster. Many problems of the emergency logistics were exposed in the process of all previous earthquake disaster rescue, such as in the Wenchuan earthquake in2008and the Yushu earthquake in2010in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to studying emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue.
Considering the characteristics of earthquake disasters, this dissertation investigates some problems related to the emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue from the perspecives of system science, using system time-varying theory, system reliability theory, possibility theory, graph theory and networks and so on. The main research contents are as follows:
(1) The concepts including disasters, earthquake, earthquake disaster, emergency management, emergency logistics, are introduced and defined. The characteristics of earthquake disaster are analyzed.
(2) The concept of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system is analyzed and defined. The difference between earthquake disaster emergency logistics and other logistics was analyzed. The elements, the organization structure, functions, operation processes and the life cycle of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system are described. The supporting system for the earthquake disaster emergency logistics system operation is analyzed.
(3) The demand index of the relief supplies in the earthquake disaster emergency logistics is analyzed. From the perspective of the time-space, the characteristics of the relief supplies for the earthquake disaster rescue is analyzed. A model is proposed for identifing the information reliability of dynamic relief-demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources during the crucial period in an earthquake disaster rescue. This proposed model is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand, aiming for easy dynamic allocation and distribution of the rescue supplies.
(4) The distribution priority problem of different kinds of relief is studied considering the different urgency of the relief demand in all disaster areas. With risk management, the risk of relief resource allocation is analyzed. Based on RPN(Risk Priority Number) methodology, a model is put forward for dynamically identifying the relief demand urgency, which is used to determine the priority of relief distribution.
(5) The reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disaster is studied. Firstly the reliability of the transportation network under earthquake disaster is analyzed. Based on the traditional GO methodology and considering the characteristics of time-varying system, the reliability of the emergency logistics transportation network is quantitatively analysed with probability measure.
Given the lack of the statistical data or the variability of earthquake disaster, based on the possibility reliability theory and GO methodology principle, and combining with the characteristics of time-varying system, the possibility GO methodology was put forward for the evaluation and prediction of the reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disasters.
Through comparing and analyzing the possibility GO methodology and the traditional probability GO methodology, their connections and respective suitability for application are illustrated.
(6) The routing problem of emergency logistics transportation in the earthquake disasters is studied. The connotation of the shortest path for the emergency logistics transportation in earthquake disasters is analyzed. The calculation method of the route travel time is studied by using the traffic wave theory. A route choice model of the emergency logistics transportation is proposed considering the time-varying characteristics of the travel time and the reliability on the transportation networks in earthquake disasters, and combining with decision factors such as the weight of the decision-makers. The simulation example demonstrates the application and the effectiveness of the proposed model.
This dissertation mainly focuses on four key issues:dynamic demand forecasting of relief supplies, the priority of resource allocation and logistics distribution, transportation networks reliability and route choice for emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.
The main innovations can be summed up as follows:
(1) A forecasting model of the dynamic relief-demand is established, which is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources.
(2) A new RPN methodology is put forward for the dynamic optimization of the relief resource allocation, which is used to further determine the priority of relief resource allocation and logistics distribution in earthquake disaster rescue.
(3) The possibility GO methodology is put forward for analyzing the reliability of the transportation networks of emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.
(4) The route choice model of emergency logistics transportation is established based on the time-varying characteristics of the reliability and the travel time on the transportation networks in earthquake disaster rescue.
This research enriches the theory and methodology of the emergency logistics, and will provide decision-making reference for making emergency logistics operation schemes in earthquake disaster rescue.
本文针对地震灾害的特征,从系统科学的角度,基于系统时变性理论、系统可靠性理论、可能性理论、图与网络理论等,对地震灾害应急物流相关问题进行了研究。具体的主要研究内容如下。
(1)对灾害、地震、地震灾害、应急管理及应急物流等相关的概念进行了介绍和界定,并对地震灾害的特征及影响进行了分析。
(2)对地震灾害应急物流系统的概念进行了分析与定义；分析了地震灾害应急物流的特征及与其它物流的区别；重点分析了地震灾害应急物流系统的构成要素、系统组织结构、功能、运作流程及生命周期,并分析了地震灾害应急物流系统运行的保障机制。
(3)对地震灾害应急物流救援物资的需求指标进行了分析,从时空的角度分析了地震灾害救援物资需求的特征。针对地震灾害的关键救援时期来自灾区的多个不同救援需求信息源的信息混乱和不确定的情况,提出了一个识别动态救援需求信息可靠性的模型。以此估算时变的救援需求量,便于救援资源的动态分配和物资配送。
(4)针对地震各个灾区不同的受灾情况及救援资源需求的紧急程度,对不同种类的救援物资分配优先权问题进行了研究。从风险管理的角度,系统地对地震灾区应急资源分配存在的风险进行了分析,利用风险优先数方法,建立了一个识别地震灾害救援需求紧急程度的动态模型,用于确定救援物资分配优先权。
(5)研究了地震灾害情况下应急物流交通运输网络可靠性问题。通过对地震灾害情况下交通运输网络可靠性的分析,基于传统GO法,并结合时变性系统的特征,用概率测度定量分析了地震灾害情况下的应急物流运输网络的可靠性。
针对地震灾害统计数据匮乏或不确定性情况,基于可能可靠性理论和GO法原理,并结合时变性系统的特征,提出了可能性GO法。用于对地震灾害情况下应急物流运输网络的可靠性进行预测。
通过对可能性GO法和传统概率GO法的比较与分析,说明了它们各自适合的应用情况,并阐明了两者的关系。
(6)研究了地震灾害情况下应急物流运输路径选择问题。分析了地震灾害应急物流运输的最短路径内涵,并应用车流波动理论研究了地震灾害下道路行程时间的计算方法。考虑到地震灾害环境下运输网络各路段的旅行时间和可靠性的时变性,并结合决策者的决策权重等因素,给出了地震灾害应急物流运输路径选择的分析和计算模型。通过仿真例子演示了模型的应用方法,验证了模型的有效性。
文章重点研究了地震灾害救援物资动态需求预测、资源配置与物流配送优选权的确定、应急物流运输网络可靠性及路径选择等4个关键问题。
主要创新点可归纳为：
(1)建立了地震灾害救援物资动态需求预测模型。在地震灾害的关键救援时期来自灾区的多个不同救援需求信息源的信息混乱和不确定的情况下,以此估算时变的救援需求量。
(2)提出了基于RPN的地震灾害救援资源动态分配优化方法,用于确定各灾区救援资源配置与物流配送优先权。
(3)提出了可能性GO法,并用于分析地震灾害应急物流运输网络的可靠性。
(4)建立了基于时变性和可靠性的地震灾害应急物流运输路径选择模型,用于应急物流运输路径选择。
以上研究成果,丰富了应急物流的理论和方法,可为地震灾害应急物流的运作方案制定提供决策参考。
Earthquake disaster is the most severe one of all disasters, which has caused huge losses to human beings. Earthquake disasters happened in China accounted for half of all the earthquake disasters in the world. It was reported that the death caused by earthquake disaster accounted for54%of all the death caused by natural disasters from1949to2000in China. When a great earthquake disaster happens, in the disaster area, a lot of relief supplies are required to maintain the survival of the survivors, the treatment for the injured, epidemic prevention, and disaster area reestablishment in the disaster area, which are aiming to reduce the loss and the impact of the disaster. Many problems of the emergency logistics were exposed in the process of all previous earthquake disaster rescue, such as in the Wenchuan earthquake in2008and the Yushu earthquake in2010in China. Therefore, it is of great significance to studying emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue.
Considering the characteristics of earthquake disasters, this dissertation investigates some problems related to the emergency logistics for earthquake disaster rescue from the perspecives of system science, using system time-varying theory, system reliability theory, possibility theory, graph theory and networks and so on. The main research contents are as follows:
(1) The concepts including disasters, earthquake, earthquake disaster, emergency management, emergency logistics, are introduced and defined. The characteristics of earthquake disaster are analyzed.
(2) The concept of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system is analyzed and defined. The difference between earthquake disaster emergency logistics and other logistics was analyzed. The elements, the organization structure, functions, operation processes and the life cycle of earthquake disaster emergency logistics system are described. The supporting system for the earthquake disaster emergency logistics system operation is analyzed.
(3) The demand index of the relief supplies in the earthquake disaster emergency logistics is analyzed. From the perspective of the time-space, the characteristics of the relief supplies for the earthquake disaster rescue is analyzed. A model is proposed for identifing the information reliability of dynamic relief-demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources during the crucial period in an earthquake disaster rescue. This proposed model is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand, aiming for easy dynamic allocation and distribution of the rescue supplies.
(4) The distribution priority problem of different kinds of relief is studied considering the different urgency of the relief demand in all disaster areas. With risk management, the risk of relief resource allocation is analyzed. Based on RPN(Risk Priority Number) methodology, a model is put forward for dynamically identifying the relief demand urgency, which is used to determine the priority of relief distribution.
(5) The reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disaster is studied. Firstly the reliability of the transportation network under earthquake disaster is analyzed. Based on the traditional GO methodology and considering the characteristics of time-varying system, the reliability of the emergency logistics transportation network is quantitatively analysed with probability measure.
Given the lack of the statistical data or the variability of earthquake disaster, based on the possibility reliability theory and GO methodology principle, and combining with the characteristics of time-varying system, the possibility GO methodology was put forward for the evaluation and prediction of the reliability of emergency logistics transportation network under earthquake disasters.
Through comparing and analyzing the possibility GO methodology and the traditional probability GO methodology, their connections and respective suitability for application are illustrated.
(6) The routing problem of emergency logistics transportation in the earthquake disasters is studied. The connotation of the shortest path for the emergency logistics transportation in earthquake disasters is analyzed. The calculation method of the route travel time is studied by using the traffic wave theory. A route choice model of the emergency logistics transportation is proposed considering the time-varying characteristics of the travel time and the reliability on the transportation networks in earthquake disasters, and combining with decision factors such as the weight of the decision-makers. The simulation example demonstrates the application and the effectiveness of the proposed model.
This dissertation mainly focuses on four key issues:dynamic demand forecasting of relief supplies, the priority of resource allocation and logistics distribution, transportation networks reliability and route choice for emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.
The main innovations can be summed up as follows:
(1) A forecasting model of the dynamic relief-demand is established, which is used to approximately determine the time-varying relief demand under the conditions of human's confusion and uncertainty about the relief-demand information from multiple information sources.
(2) A new RPN methodology is put forward for the dynamic optimization of the relief resource allocation, which is used to further determine the priority of relief resource allocation and logistics distribution in earthquake disaster rescue.
(3) The possibility GO methodology is put forward for analyzing the reliability of the transportation networks of emergency logistics in earthquake disaster rescue.
(4) The route choice model of emergency logistics transportation is established based on the time-varying characteristics of the reliability and the travel time on the transportation networks in earthquake disaster rescue.
This research enriches the theory and methodology of the emergency logistics, and will provide decision-making reference for making emergency logistics operation schemes in earthquake disaster rescue.
引文
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