架空线路在线监测覆冰计算、评估和预测研究
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摘要
架空线路覆冰是影响电网安全运行的重要问题之一。覆冰引起的导线舞动、倒塔、断线及绝缘子闪络等重大事故，严重威胁了电力系统的稳定和安全运行。
称重法在线监测架空线路覆冰原理简单、技术相对成熟，广泛应用在我国高压交、直流架空线路。目前架空线路覆冰监测原理和装置已经初步形成了电力企业规范，但仍存在较多问题，如覆冰计算模型仍然缺乏深入研究、在线监测海量数据的科学利用以便对覆冰状态在线评估等研究尚未开展、覆冰短期发展趋势预测仍是空白。因此，开展架空线路在线监测覆冰计算模型、状态评估和预测预警的研究具有重要的科学意义，是架空线路在线监测应用中亟需解决的关键技术。
本文以国家重点基础研究计划项目（973项目）为依托，采用理论分析与建模、人工智能技术、真型试验线段试验验证和现场实测验证等研究方法，开展了以下主要研究工作：
对称重法静力学计算模型科学性进行了证明，将绝缘子串视为一刚体直杆，基于理论力学原理推导了其运动加速度方程，证明了导线受风摆动情况能够当成静态力学问题处理。研究了孤立档典型导线的导线长度随温度变化的规律，分析了不同档距大小下覆冰、大风及二者并存对导线长度变化率的影响，结果表明导线覆冰与否其长度没有明显变化。进一步提出了一种考虑风偏影响的在线监测覆冰厚度计算模型，首先在垂直平面内计算未覆冰时线路基本静力学参数，然后考虑绝缘子串和线路受风偏影响，在风偏平面内建立该平面竖直方向上的静力平衡方程，最后根据荷载变化计算出导线覆冰量。这种计算模型也适用无风偏的情况。针对杆塔基础参数错误及缺少，提出了基于历史监测数据反推的在线监测覆冰量范围计算方法，首先根据气象约束条件计算导线垂直荷载，与利用杆塔参数计算的垂直荷载比较，然后根据导线参数计算等效导线长度变化范围，最后进行导线覆冰厚度范围计算。利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的监测数据和现场采集覆冰数据验证了上述方法的有效性和可行性。
进行了特高压直流试验线段的导线模拟覆冰试验研究。试验线段位于特高压工程技术（昆明）国家工程实验室，导线模拟等效覆冰厚度为5mm，模拟方式采用外加集中砝码均匀分布在800m耐张段内的导线间隔棒。试验分析了拉力和角度传感器的线性度，获得了传感器测量误差；进行了导线模拟均匀和非均匀覆冰情况下覆冰厚度计算方法的准确性验证，研究了计算精度和适用范围。
利用监测数据进行了架空线路覆冰与导线温度、微气象因素之间的相关性分析，指出了数理统计方法存在的不足，研究提出了一种邓氏灰色关联度和灰色斜率关联度方法相结合的灰色综合关联分析方法，确定了导线温度、相对湿度、环境温度和风速与覆冰的相关性大小顺序。
以等效覆冰厚度为基础，综合考虑微气象参数、覆冰持续时间等多个因素，提出了采用多变量模糊控制技术的线路覆冰在线状态评估方法，对输入多变量进行了模糊化处理，建立了一套分步的模糊推理规则。进一步将在线监测量与架空线路机械和电气性能状态联系起来，建立了架空线路覆冰故障状态评估模糊专家系统。设计了覆冰架空线路机械荷载和外绝缘状态评估方案，将机械荷载分为垂直荷载、水平荷载、断线和纵向荷载状态评估，提出了状态评估特征量，同时确定了外绝缘状态评估特征量。利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的监测覆冰数据验证了状态评估方法和专家系统的准确性。
提出了一种基于时间序列分析的架空线路覆冰未来短期预测方法。以在线监测单位长度覆冰质量为时间序列，利用小波分析降噪和时间序列方法建模，研究了对未来12小时覆冰量预测的方法；利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的在线监测数据分析了预测方法的效果，并对比研究了该预测方法与雾凇增长模型的差别。
Icing and snowing on overhead transmission lines in extremely cold climatic events is anenormous threat to the stability and safety of power system. Some problems caused by icing,such as line galloping, insulator flashover and tower collapse, etc., occurred in many countries.Because of reliability and practicability of the weight method, it is widely used for an on-linemonitoring and pre-warning system for ice coating on overhead transmission lines, which is agood solution to guarantee the safe operation of power grid.
Although an electric power enterprise specification have been initially formed focusedon the principles and the monitoring devices of the on-line monitoring system, some keyproblems have not been solved yet, for example, the mechanical calculation model is needdeep studying, and current researches are lack of condition assessment, and warning ofoverhead transmission line under icing and snowing condition. So the research on themechanical calculation model, condition assessment and forecast of icing is of importantacademic significance, and is the key technology that needs to be resolved in transmissionline on-line monitoring application.
Based by the National Basic Research Program of China (973program), theoreticalanalysis and modeling, artificial intelligence techniques, true line tests in laboratory and fieldtests are combined to carry out the project. The main works in this paper are as follows:
The reasonableness of statics mechanical-calculation model using weighing method isproved. Take the insulator string as rigid body, and its acceleration equation is derived basedon theoretical mechanics principle, to prove that the conductor for the wind swing conditionscan be processed as static. The paper researches the deformation characteristics of typicalconductors in an isolated span, by adding the external loads which include wind loads and iceloads to the conductors. For accurate calculation on overhead transmission line icing, a newmechanical calculation model is established based on suspended point pull of insulator stringat tower and obliquities of insulator string, considering the deviation angel of insulator stringfor wind. In this model, mechanics parameters of conductor are turned into the newcoordinates after deviation angel of insulator string for wind, and a statics force balanceequation is built in vertical direction of the new coordinates after deviation. This model is also applicable to the no-wind case. Furthermore, aiming at tower basic parameter errors cases, theparameter accuracy test and parameter correction methods are proposed. And a novelcomputed method for the ranges of icing cover, in which the vertical load of conductors isfirst calculated and to acquire the ranges of the length of conductors by fitting with Gaussiandistribution based on weather constraints, is proposed for the cases of lack of tower basicparameter. The on-line monitoring data and field ice data obtained by people are used toverify the effectiveness and feasibility of the above two ice computed methods.
The simulation experiment of ice cover on overhead transmission line is carried out atthe National Engineering Laboratory for UHV Engineering Technology (Kunming). Thenatural ice is simulated by lumped loads hanging on the line, the equivalent ice thickness ofwhich is5mm. Linearity of the tension and angle sensor and the measurement errors are bothobtained. Uniformed and non-uniformed ice cases of the line are tested and analyzed torealize the calculation accuracy and the range of application of the methods proposed in thispaper.
The paper researches the correlation between local meteorology parameters and theoverhead transmission line icing. The correlation is not comprehensive and systemic currently,and the main influence factor on icing cannot be confirmed. In this paper, result unconformitybetween line correlation and the qualitative analysis about the correlation is pointed out, andthe synthetic grey relational analysis, which combines general relational degree proposed byDeng with slope relational degree, is constructed to realize the relationships amongtransmission line icing, conductor temperature and local meteorology parameters, such asambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, etc.. Finally the order of the relationdegree is given.
The paper presents two ways of condition assessment of overhead transmission line icing.Firstly, a method is proposed to improve the accuracy of condition assessment based onmultivariable fuzzy logic control, considering equivalent thickness of overhead transmissionline mainly, local meteorology parameters and ice cover duration. A hierarchical multitudesstructure of multivariable fuzzy logic controller and a set of fuzzy reasoning rules are set up.Second, a fuzzy expert system which is characteristic of fuzziness and indefiniteness isproposed, for analyzing the potential for damage to transmission line and tower as a result of icing events. The characteristic quantities for condition assessment are decided to establishtwo kinds of models: static mechanical load and external insulation assessment model. Andthe condition assessment knowledge base corresponding to each assessment model is builtbased on test results, field data and expert knowledge. Furthermore, field data from ChinaSouthern Power Grid on-line monitoring system are used to test the effectiveness and theaccuracy of the proposed methods.
The paper also presents a short-term prediction method for icing based on time seriesanalysis. The theory of wavelet analysis is applied to eliminate the noise the real-time icequality of the unit length, and the time series analysis method, autoregressive integratedmoving average (ARIMA) model, is used to predict ice quality in12h. The numericalexample on the field data is showed to testify the proposed model and a comparison of theproposed model and the rime growth model is investigated.
称重法在线监测架空线路覆冰原理简单、技术相对成熟，广泛应用在我国高压交、直流架空线路。目前架空线路覆冰监测原理和装置已经初步形成了电力企业规范，但仍存在较多问题，如覆冰计算模型仍然缺乏深入研究、在线监测海量数据的科学利用以便对覆冰状态在线评估等研究尚未开展、覆冰短期发展趋势预测仍是空白。因此，开展架空线路在线监测覆冰计算模型、状态评估和预测预警的研究具有重要的科学意义，是架空线路在线监测应用中亟需解决的关键技术。
本文以国家重点基础研究计划项目（973项目）为依托，采用理论分析与建模、人工智能技术、真型试验线段试验验证和现场实测验证等研究方法，开展了以下主要研究工作：
对称重法静力学计算模型科学性进行了证明，将绝缘子串视为一刚体直杆，基于理论力学原理推导了其运动加速度方程，证明了导线受风摆动情况能够当成静态力学问题处理。研究了孤立档典型导线的导线长度随温度变化的规律，分析了不同档距大小下覆冰、大风及二者并存对导线长度变化率的影响，结果表明导线覆冰与否其长度没有明显变化。进一步提出了一种考虑风偏影响的在线监测覆冰厚度计算模型，首先在垂直平面内计算未覆冰时线路基本静力学参数，然后考虑绝缘子串和线路受风偏影响，在风偏平面内建立该平面竖直方向上的静力平衡方程，最后根据荷载变化计算出导线覆冰量。这种计算模型也适用无风偏的情况。针对杆塔基础参数错误及缺少，提出了基于历史监测数据反推的在线监测覆冰量范围计算方法，首先根据气象约束条件计算导线垂直荷载，与利用杆塔参数计算的垂直荷载比较，然后根据导线参数计算等效导线长度变化范围，最后进行导线覆冰厚度范围计算。利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的监测数据和现场采集覆冰数据验证了上述方法的有效性和可行性。
进行了特高压直流试验线段的导线模拟覆冰试验研究。试验线段位于特高压工程技术（昆明）国家工程实验室，导线模拟等效覆冰厚度为5mm，模拟方式采用外加集中砝码均匀分布在800m耐张段内的导线间隔棒。试验分析了拉力和角度传感器的线性度，获得了传感器测量误差；进行了导线模拟均匀和非均匀覆冰情况下覆冰厚度计算方法的准确性验证，研究了计算精度和适用范围。
利用监测数据进行了架空线路覆冰与导线温度、微气象因素之间的相关性分析，指出了数理统计方法存在的不足，研究提出了一种邓氏灰色关联度和灰色斜率关联度方法相结合的灰色综合关联分析方法，确定了导线温度、相对湿度、环境温度和风速与覆冰的相关性大小顺序。
以等效覆冰厚度为基础，综合考虑微气象参数、覆冰持续时间等多个因素，提出了采用多变量模糊控制技术的线路覆冰在线状态评估方法，对输入多变量进行了模糊化处理，建立了一套分步的模糊推理规则。进一步将在线监测量与架空线路机械和电气性能状态联系起来，建立了架空线路覆冰故障状态评估模糊专家系统。设计了覆冰架空线路机械荷载和外绝缘状态评估方案，将机械荷载分为垂直荷载、水平荷载、断线和纵向荷载状态评估，提出了状态评估特征量，同时确定了外绝缘状态评估特征量。利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的监测覆冰数据验证了状态评估方法和专家系统的准确性。
提出了一种基于时间序列分析的架空线路覆冰未来短期预测方法。以在线监测单位长度覆冰质量为时间序列，利用小波分析降噪和时间序列方法建模，研究了对未来12小时覆冰量预测的方法；利用南方电网灾害（覆冰）监测预警系统的在线监测数据分析了预测方法的效果，并对比研究了该预测方法与雾凇增长模型的差别。
Icing and snowing on overhead transmission lines in extremely cold climatic events is anenormous threat to the stability and safety of power system. Some problems caused by icing,such as line galloping, insulator flashover and tower collapse, etc., occurred in many countries.Because of reliability and practicability of the weight method, it is widely used for an on-linemonitoring and pre-warning system for ice coating on overhead transmission lines, which is agood solution to guarantee the safe operation of power grid.
Although an electric power enterprise specification have been initially formed focusedon the principles and the monitoring devices of the on-line monitoring system, some keyproblems have not been solved yet, for example, the mechanical calculation model is needdeep studying, and current researches are lack of condition assessment, and warning ofoverhead transmission line under icing and snowing condition. So the research on themechanical calculation model, condition assessment and forecast of icing is of importantacademic significance, and is the key technology that needs to be resolved in transmissionline on-line monitoring application.
Based by the National Basic Research Program of China (973program), theoreticalanalysis and modeling, artificial intelligence techniques, true line tests in laboratory and fieldtests are combined to carry out the project. The main works in this paper are as follows:
The reasonableness of statics mechanical-calculation model using weighing method isproved. Take the insulator string as rigid body, and its acceleration equation is derived basedon theoretical mechanics principle, to prove that the conductor for the wind swing conditionscan be processed as static. The paper researches the deformation characteristics of typicalconductors in an isolated span, by adding the external loads which include wind loads and iceloads to the conductors. For accurate calculation on overhead transmission line icing, a newmechanical calculation model is established based on suspended point pull of insulator stringat tower and obliquities of insulator string, considering the deviation angel of insulator stringfor wind. In this model, mechanics parameters of conductor are turned into the newcoordinates after deviation angel of insulator string for wind, and a statics force balanceequation is built in vertical direction of the new coordinates after deviation. This model is also applicable to the no-wind case. Furthermore, aiming at tower basic parameter errors cases, theparameter accuracy test and parameter correction methods are proposed. And a novelcomputed method for the ranges of icing cover, in which the vertical load of conductors isfirst calculated and to acquire the ranges of the length of conductors by fitting with Gaussiandistribution based on weather constraints, is proposed for the cases of lack of tower basicparameter. The on-line monitoring data and field ice data obtained by people are used toverify the effectiveness and feasibility of the above two ice computed methods.
The simulation experiment of ice cover on overhead transmission line is carried out atthe National Engineering Laboratory for UHV Engineering Technology (Kunming). Thenatural ice is simulated by lumped loads hanging on the line, the equivalent ice thickness ofwhich is5mm. Linearity of the tension and angle sensor and the measurement errors are bothobtained. Uniformed and non-uniformed ice cases of the line are tested and analyzed torealize the calculation accuracy and the range of application of the methods proposed in thispaper.
The paper researches the correlation between local meteorology parameters and theoverhead transmission line icing. The correlation is not comprehensive and systemic currently,and the main influence factor on icing cannot be confirmed. In this paper, result unconformitybetween line correlation and the qualitative analysis about the correlation is pointed out, andthe synthetic grey relational analysis, which combines general relational degree proposed byDeng with slope relational degree, is constructed to realize the relationships amongtransmission line icing, conductor temperature and local meteorology parameters, such asambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, etc.. Finally the order of the relationdegree is given.
The paper presents two ways of condition assessment of overhead transmission line icing.Firstly, a method is proposed to improve the accuracy of condition assessment based onmultivariable fuzzy logic control, considering equivalent thickness of overhead transmissionline mainly, local meteorology parameters and ice cover duration. A hierarchical multitudesstructure of multivariable fuzzy logic controller and a set of fuzzy reasoning rules are set up.Second, a fuzzy expert system which is characteristic of fuzziness and indefiniteness isproposed, for analyzing the potential for damage to transmission line and tower as a result of icing events. The characteristic quantities for condition assessment are decided to establishtwo kinds of models: static mechanical load and external insulation assessment model. Andthe condition assessment knowledge base corresponding to each assessment model is builtbased on test results, field data and expert knowledge. Furthermore, field data from ChinaSouthern Power Grid on-line monitoring system are used to test the effectiveness and theaccuracy of the proposed methods.
The paper also presents a short-term prediction method for icing based on time seriesanalysis. The theory of wavelet analysis is applied to eliminate the noise the real-time icequality of the unit length, and the time series analysis method, autoregressive integratedmoving average (ARIMA) model, is used to predict ice quality in12h. The numericalexample on the field data is showed to testify the proposed model and a comparison of theproposed model and the rime growth model is investigated.
引文
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