企业持续创新过程的重大风险动态分析和管理机制研究
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摘要
企业创新贵在持续,也难在持续。究其主要原因是,当今世界瞬息万变,风险复杂多变,企业必须有效应对创新过程的各种重大风险,克服创新过程中的重重困难,才能成功实现持续创新。然而,企业如何才能有效地认识、防范、规避和应对各种动态变化的重大风险,成功地实现持续创新?这一问题已经成为企业界、理论界和政府部门所面临的重大理论和实践的挑战性问题。
本文基于创新、企业持续创新、系统工程、风险和风险管理相关理论和方法,在前人研究工作的基础上,理论联系实际,采用理论分析与实际案例研究相结合的研究方法,对企业持续创新过程的重大风险的动态变化规律和管理机制建设进行系统的分析和研究,主要进行了以下几方面的工作：
(1)、在对创新、技术和制度创新、企业持续创新以及风险管理相关理论进行分析和归纳基础上,界定了企业持续创新过程的重大风险定义；明确了重大风险的主要内容,即重大环境风险、经营者人因风险、创新战略风险和重大创新项目的主要风险四种类型；指出重大风险具有复杂性、动态性和后果严重性；分析了四类重大风险产生和形成的原因；并在此基础上,识别了重大风险要素。
(2)、对企业持续创新过程的重大风险进行了动态分析。具体包括构建了企业持续创新过程的动态阶段模型,在此基础上,归纳并构建了经营者人因风险动态变化的双S曲线模型,创新战略风险的动态变化倒S曲线模型,以及重大创新项目主要风险的动态变化的倒S曲线模型,分析并揭示了以上三类重大风险的动态变化规律；进而分析和揭示了各类重大风险的相互作用、相互影响关系以及重大风险的纵向动态传递过程,横向动态积聚的原因、特征和模式。
(3)、在以上工作的基础上,基于企业持续创新过程的不同阶段、不同战略时期,不同关键点,经营者在位的不同时间对重大风险的影响,构建了企业持续创新过程的重大风险动态评价数学模型、重大风险的动态评价基本程序(包括六个步骤)和重大风险的动态评价基本模式；运用双准则风险评级过滤和模糊格贴近度方法,建立了对重大风险实施专家评估及风险等级评判的具体方法；指出企业在持续创新过程中,应重点防范和有效应对高及较高等级的重大风险,关注中等等级的重大风险。
(4)、针对重大风险评估结果,提出了重大风险管控的两类措施：一是对中等、较高及高等级重大风险采取的针对性管控措施,二是根本性管控措施,即应在要求企业经营者具有强烈的创新风险管理意识的前提下,企业本身以及企业的上级主管部门从组织结构与人员配置、规章制度、预警机制和应急预案四方面构建重大风险管理机制；并重点分析了企业在持续创新过程中构建重大风险预警机制的原则、功能；构建了一套具有可操作性的,包括重大风险输入模块、重大风险预警等级信号输出模块、预控措施模块、信息反馈与预警机制的修正模块四大模块的重大风险预警机制模型。
(5)、运用以上理论成果,本文结合云南省著名企业——云铜集团的持续创新过程重大风险管理实际背景,完成了对云铜集团的实证案例研究,对本文的理论研究成果进行了初步验证和实际运用。
首先对云铜集团的持续创新实践背景进行了简介,构建了云铜集团持续创新过程的动态阶段模型；构建了云铜集团持续创新过程的经营者人因风险动态变化双S曲线模型,创新战略风险动态变化S曲线模型,以及重大创新项目主要风险的动态变化S曲线模型；并对云铜集团持续创新过程重大风险动态横向积聚过程进行了分析。
然后,运用所建企业持续创新过程的重大风险的动态评价基本程序(包括六个步骤)和所建立的重大风险专家评估及模糊评判方法,对云铜集团持续创新过程“十二五”战略转型期的重大风险实施了动态评价。具体包括：第一步：确定待评估重大风险存在的特定时间段：即云铜集团持续创新过程的“十二五”战略转型期；第二步：运用S曲线模型,初步判断云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期三类重大风险的基础风险等级；第三步：对云铜集团的现任经营者,云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期实施的“绿色可持续发展”战略,以及支撑这个战略的关键重大创新项目——普朗铜矿资源项目的重大风险因素进行深化识别和分析；第四步：运用双准则风险评级过滤和格贴近度模糊评判方法,对云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期的重大风险进行专家评估和风险等级评判；第五步：针对评估结果进行深化分析和讨论；第六步：给出具体的有效应对重大风险的方法和对策建议。
最后,针对云铜集团当前的重大风险管理机制构建情况,提出云铜及其上级国资委监管部门应在要求经营者具有强烈的重大风险管理意识的前提下,从组织机构与人员配置、规章制度、预警机制和应急预案四方面构建一套科学、有效的重大风险管理机制,尤其是应该逐步构建重大风险预警系统,以有效防范、应对重大风险。
Sustainable is very important in enterprise innovation, and also difficult. The main reason is that the risk is complex and changeful in today's rapidly changing world. In order to achieve sustainable innovation, Enterprises must effectively deal with the various significant risks in the process of innovation, and overcome the difficulties. However, how can the enterprise effectively prevent, avoid and deal with all kinds of dynamic changeable significant risk and achieve sustainable innovation successfully is become a problem. It already became a significant theoretical and practical challenge that all enterprises, theory researchers and government departments must face. Based on this pioneering topic, this paper is devoted to discuss all kinds of significant risk issues in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation.
This paper is based on innovation, enterprise sustainable innovation, system engineering, risk and risk management theory, on the basis of predecessor's work, using theoretical analyses and practical combination of case study, mainly has following several research works:
(1), Define the significant risk definition in enterprise sustainable innovation process based on analyzing and summarizing the theory of innovation, technology and regulation innovation, enterprise sustainable innovation and risk management and so on; To make clear the main content of significant risk, these four type significant risk is significant environmental risk, operator man-made factor risk, innovation strategy risk and significant innovation project. And also point out that the significant risk has dynamic characteristics and risk accumulation characteristics; Analysis the causes produced and formed by these four type significant risk, and on this basis, identified24significant risk factors.
(2), Dynamic analysis the significant risk in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation. Specific including the construction of enterprise s sustainable innovation process model, on this foundation, summary and construct operator man-made risk dynamic double S curve model, the dynamic changeable Innovation strategy risk inverted S curve model, As well as the dynamic changeable significant innovation project risk inverted S curve model, using above models, analysis and reveals the dynamic variation regulation of the three significant risk, the longitudinal dynamic transfer process of significant risk; The reasons, characteristics and models in transverse dynamic accumulation of significant risk; The interaction, mutual influence relation of four categories significant risk.
(3),On above foundation, based on the different stages, the different strategy period, the different key point, the operator in different time on significant risk effects in the dynamic process of enterprise sustainable innovation, build the significant dynamic risk evaluation mathematical model, dynamic evaluation basic procedures (including six steps) and significant risk dynamic evaluation model in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation, then assess significant risk factor rating using double standard risk rating filtering and fuzzy lattice closeness degree method, evaluate significant risk level of risk factor (high risk, less than high risk, moderate risk and general risk). And points out that the enterprise in the process of sustainable innovation, should take strict prevention and effective deal with high risk, less than high risk factors, focus on moderate risk factors.
(4),Put forward two kinds of measures to the assessment result of the significant risk:1, specific management measures should be adopted for the main risk factor and important risk factor in significant risk, that's the risk management measures of three significant risk in three levels of risk status (moderate risk, less than high risk, high risk);2, fundamental management measures for significant risk, that's should request enterprise operators have strong consciousness of innovation risk management, construct the significant risk management mechanism in four aspects that including the organizational structure and personnel allocation, the rules, the early-warning mechanism and the emergency response plan from enterprise itself and the superior competent department. The analysis focus on the function and principle through the construction of significant risk early-warning mechanism in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation; Construct a suit of operational significant risk early-warning mechanism model including significant risk input module, significant risk early-warning grade signal output module, preventive-control measure module, information feedback correcting and early-warning mechanism correcting module.
(5), Apply the above theoretical results, this paper combine with a well-known enterprise in Yunnan Province--Yunnan copper Group, through its significant risk management background in sustainable innovation process, preliminary validate and practical apply the theory research results in this paper, to complete the company's case study. First simply introduce Yunnan copper Group's sustainable innovation practice background, construct this company's stage model in sustainable innovation dynamic process. Then summed up and reveal the company's operator man-made risk dynamic double S curve model, Innovation strategy risk of the dynamic change inverted S curve model, As well as the significant innovation project risk of the dynamic change inverted S curve model in sustainable innovation process; And analyze the transverse dynamic accumulation process of significant risk in the company's sustainable innovation process.
Then, dynamic evaluate Yunnan copper Group's significant risk implement in their sustainable innovation strategy transition period through Twelfth Five-year Plan, specific include:The first step, select the characteristics of time (point) of dynamic assessment; The second step, initially determine the basic amount of risk of significant risk in Yunnan copper Group's specific time period; The third step, deepening recognize and analyze the significant risk of the implement of Twelfth Five-year Plan--"green sustainable development" strategy which proposed by the third generation of the operator of Yunnan copper Group, and the key major innovation project that support this strategy called Pulang copper deposit resource project; The fourth step, specific assess the significant risk exist in this particular period of time for Yunnan copper Group using the double standard risk rating filtering and fuzzy lattice closeness degree method; The fifth step, deepening analyze and discuss the evaluation results; The sixth step, give the specific effective methods and countermeasures to deal with the significant risk according to the evaluation results.
Finally, according to the current construction of significant risk management mechanism in Yunnan copper Group, propose that Yunnan copper Group should construct a suite of scientific, effective significant risk management mechanism from the organizational structure and personnel allocation, the rules, the early-warning mechanism and the emergency response plan under this circumstance that the operator of this company has a strong significant risk management consciousness which required by Yunnan copper Group and superior SASAC supervision department. Suggest that Yunnan copper Group should gradually build a significant risk early-warning system to effectively prevent and deal with the significant risk.
本文基于创新、企业持续创新、系统工程、风险和风险管理相关理论和方法,在前人研究工作的基础上,理论联系实际,采用理论分析与实际案例研究相结合的研究方法,对企业持续创新过程的重大风险的动态变化规律和管理机制建设进行系统的分析和研究,主要进行了以下几方面的工作：
(1)、在对创新、技术和制度创新、企业持续创新以及风险管理相关理论进行分析和归纳基础上,界定了企业持续创新过程的重大风险定义；明确了重大风险的主要内容,即重大环境风险、经营者人因风险、创新战略风险和重大创新项目的主要风险四种类型；指出重大风险具有复杂性、动态性和后果严重性；分析了四类重大风险产生和形成的原因；并在此基础上,识别了重大风险要素。
(2)、对企业持续创新过程的重大风险进行了动态分析。具体包括构建了企业持续创新过程的动态阶段模型,在此基础上,归纳并构建了经营者人因风险动态变化的双S曲线模型,创新战略风险的动态变化倒S曲线模型,以及重大创新项目主要风险的动态变化的倒S曲线模型,分析并揭示了以上三类重大风险的动态变化规律；进而分析和揭示了各类重大风险的相互作用、相互影响关系以及重大风险的纵向动态传递过程,横向动态积聚的原因、特征和模式。
(3)、在以上工作的基础上,基于企业持续创新过程的不同阶段、不同战略时期,不同关键点,经营者在位的不同时间对重大风险的影响,构建了企业持续创新过程的重大风险动态评价数学模型、重大风险的动态评价基本程序(包括六个步骤)和重大风险的动态评价基本模式；运用双准则风险评级过滤和模糊格贴近度方法,建立了对重大风险实施专家评估及风险等级评判的具体方法；指出企业在持续创新过程中,应重点防范和有效应对高及较高等级的重大风险,关注中等等级的重大风险。
(4)、针对重大风险评估结果,提出了重大风险管控的两类措施：一是对中等、较高及高等级重大风险采取的针对性管控措施,二是根本性管控措施,即应在要求企业经营者具有强烈的创新风险管理意识的前提下,企业本身以及企业的上级主管部门从组织结构与人员配置、规章制度、预警机制和应急预案四方面构建重大风险管理机制；并重点分析了企业在持续创新过程中构建重大风险预警机制的原则、功能；构建了一套具有可操作性的,包括重大风险输入模块、重大风险预警等级信号输出模块、预控措施模块、信息反馈与预警机制的修正模块四大模块的重大风险预警机制模型。
(5)、运用以上理论成果,本文结合云南省著名企业——云铜集团的持续创新过程重大风险管理实际背景,完成了对云铜集团的实证案例研究,对本文的理论研究成果进行了初步验证和实际运用。
首先对云铜集团的持续创新实践背景进行了简介,构建了云铜集团持续创新过程的动态阶段模型；构建了云铜集团持续创新过程的经营者人因风险动态变化双S曲线模型,创新战略风险动态变化S曲线模型,以及重大创新项目主要风险的动态变化S曲线模型；并对云铜集团持续创新过程重大风险动态横向积聚过程进行了分析。
然后,运用所建企业持续创新过程的重大风险的动态评价基本程序(包括六个步骤)和所建立的重大风险专家评估及模糊评判方法,对云铜集团持续创新过程“十二五”战略转型期的重大风险实施了动态评价。具体包括：第一步：确定待评估重大风险存在的特定时间段：即云铜集团持续创新过程的“十二五”战略转型期；第二步：运用S曲线模型,初步判断云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期三类重大风险的基础风险等级；第三步：对云铜集团的现任经营者,云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期实施的“绿色可持续发展”战略,以及支撑这个战略的关键重大创新项目——普朗铜矿资源项目的重大风险因素进行深化识别和分析；第四步：运用双准则风险评级过滤和格贴近度模糊评判方法,对云铜集团“十二五”战略转型期的重大风险进行专家评估和风险等级评判；第五步：针对评估结果进行深化分析和讨论；第六步：给出具体的有效应对重大风险的方法和对策建议。
最后,针对云铜集团当前的重大风险管理机制构建情况,提出云铜及其上级国资委监管部门应在要求经营者具有强烈的重大风险管理意识的前提下,从组织机构与人员配置、规章制度、预警机制和应急预案四方面构建一套科学、有效的重大风险管理机制,尤其是应该逐步构建重大风险预警系统,以有效防范、应对重大风险。
Sustainable is very important in enterprise innovation, and also difficult. The main reason is that the risk is complex and changeful in today's rapidly changing world. In order to achieve sustainable innovation, Enterprises must effectively deal with the various significant risks in the process of innovation, and overcome the difficulties. However, how can the enterprise effectively prevent, avoid and deal with all kinds of dynamic changeable significant risk and achieve sustainable innovation successfully is become a problem. It already became a significant theoretical and practical challenge that all enterprises, theory researchers and government departments must face. Based on this pioneering topic, this paper is devoted to discuss all kinds of significant risk issues in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation.
This paper is based on innovation, enterprise sustainable innovation, system engineering, risk and risk management theory, on the basis of predecessor's work, using theoretical analyses and practical combination of case study, mainly has following several research works:
(1), Define the significant risk definition in enterprise sustainable innovation process based on analyzing and summarizing the theory of innovation, technology and regulation innovation, enterprise sustainable innovation and risk management and so on; To make clear the main content of significant risk, these four type significant risk is significant environmental risk, operator man-made factor risk, innovation strategy risk and significant innovation project. And also point out that the significant risk has dynamic characteristics and risk accumulation characteristics; Analysis the causes produced and formed by these four type significant risk, and on this basis, identified24significant risk factors.
(2), Dynamic analysis the significant risk in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation. Specific including the construction of enterprise s sustainable innovation process model, on this foundation, summary and construct operator man-made risk dynamic double S curve model, the dynamic changeable Innovation strategy risk inverted S curve model, As well as the dynamic changeable significant innovation project risk inverted S curve model, using above models, analysis and reveals the dynamic variation regulation of the three significant risk, the longitudinal dynamic transfer process of significant risk; The reasons, characteristics and models in transverse dynamic accumulation of significant risk; The interaction, mutual influence relation of four categories significant risk.
(3),On above foundation, based on the different stages, the different strategy period, the different key point, the operator in different time on significant risk effects in the dynamic process of enterprise sustainable innovation, build the significant dynamic risk evaluation mathematical model, dynamic evaluation basic procedures (including six steps) and significant risk dynamic evaluation model in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation, then assess significant risk factor rating using double standard risk rating filtering and fuzzy lattice closeness degree method, evaluate significant risk level of risk factor (high risk, less than high risk, moderate risk and general risk). And points out that the enterprise in the process of sustainable innovation, should take strict prevention and effective deal with high risk, less than high risk factors, focus on moderate risk factors.
(4),Put forward two kinds of measures to the assessment result of the significant risk:1, specific management measures should be adopted for the main risk factor and important risk factor in significant risk, that's the risk management measures of three significant risk in three levels of risk status (moderate risk, less than high risk, high risk);2, fundamental management measures for significant risk, that's should request enterprise operators have strong consciousness of innovation risk management, construct the significant risk management mechanism in four aspects that including the organizational structure and personnel allocation, the rules, the early-warning mechanism and the emergency response plan from enterprise itself and the superior competent department. The analysis focus on the function and principle through the construction of significant risk early-warning mechanism in the process of enterprise sustainable innovation; Construct a suit of operational significant risk early-warning mechanism model including significant risk input module, significant risk early-warning grade signal output module, preventive-control measure module, information feedback correcting and early-warning mechanism correcting module.
(5), Apply the above theoretical results, this paper combine with a well-known enterprise in Yunnan Province--Yunnan copper Group, through its significant risk management background in sustainable innovation process, preliminary validate and practical apply the theory research results in this paper, to complete the company's case study. First simply introduce Yunnan copper Group's sustainable innovation practice background, construct this company's stage model in sustainable innovation dynamic process. Then summed up and reveal the company's operator man-made risk dynamic double S curve model, Innovation strategy risk of the dynamic change inverted S curve model, As well as the significant innovation project risk of the dynamic change inverted S curve model in sustainable innovation process; And analyze the transverse dynamic accumulation process of significant risk in the company's sustainable innovation process.
Then, dynamic evaluate Yunnan copper Group's significant risk implement in their sustainable innovation strategy transition period through Twelfth Five-year Plan, specific include:The first step, select the characteristics of time (point) of dynamic assessment; The second step, initially determine the basic amount of risk of significant risk in Yunnan copper Group's specific time period; The third step, deepening recognize and analyze the significant risk of the implement of Twelfth Five-year Plan--"green sustainable development" strategy which proposed by the third generation of the operator of Yunnan copper Group, and the key major innovation project that support this strategy called Pulang copper deposit resource project; The fourth step, specific assess the significant risk exist in this particular period of time for Yunnan copper Group using the double standard risk rating filtering and fuzzy lattice closeness degree method; The fifth step, deepening analyze and discuss the evaluation results; The sixth step, give the specific effective methods and countermeasures to deal with the significant risk according to the evaluation results.
Finally, according to the current construction of significant risk management mechanism in Yunnan copper Group, propose that Yunnan copper Group should construct a suite of scientific, effective significant risk management mechanism from the organizational structure and personnel allocation, the rules, the early-warning mechanism and the emergency response plan under this circumstance that the operator of this company has a strong significant risk management consciousness which required by Yunnan copper Group and superior SASAC supervision department. Suggest that Yunnan copper Group should gradually build a significant risk early-warning system to effectively prevent and deal with the significant risk.
引文
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5 Maskin E. and J. Tirole (1990)," The Principle-Agent Relationship with an Informed Principal, I:Private Values," Econometrica 58:379-410.
6张建华.创新、激励与经济发展[M].华中理工大学出版社,2000.
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