基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式研究
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摘要
从生产模式演变的角度来看,个性化模式已成为一种趋势。而服务产品具有典型的个性化特征,随着服务产品在国民经济中所占比重越来越高,因此有必要对服务产品在个性化趋势下的运作问题进行专门研究。本文尝试建立基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式的雏形,旨在突出服务供应链运作中如何更有效地满足客户的个性化需求。具体来讲,主要做了以下几个方面的工作：
(1)对国内外研究现状进行了分析。论文对国内外研究现状进行了分析,在现状分析的基础上,提出了从“个性化需求”的角度来分析研究服务供应链。对论文研究的实践和理论意义进行了阐述。并采取多学科、多方法集成,系统性分析和重点性研究相结合,理论研究与实证分析相结合,定性研究与定量分析相结合的研究方法来完成“基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式研究”的研究工作。
(2)个性化需求的定义、分类及其定量描述。论文站在从大规模生产、大规模定制到个性化模式演变的角度,对个性化需求进行了定义,指出了个性化需求与大规模需求、定制化需求的异同；从消费者购买动机、消费者心理、市场营销学等方面对个性化需求进行了分类,并结合个性化的相关性、自相关性以及需求数量分布特性对个性化需求进行了定量描述。
(3)基于个性化需求服务供应链模型。论文提出的基于个性化需求服务供应链(Individual Demand-oriented Service Supply Chain, IDOSSC)模型,以个性化需求的获取、分析、处理和实现为主线,通过对个性化需求预测和个性化服务能力管理,把握客户需求的变动和趋势,为实现新的价值增长点提供支持。
(4)基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式。论文从运作流程、运作组织、构建过程三个方面对IDOSSC运作模式进行了分析。运作流程以客户的个性化需求为导向,划分为对客户需求的获取、分析、处理及实现四个阶段；运作组织以合作共同体为架构,根据个性化需求、而不仅只是提供一般性服务的思路,进行了组织重构；构建过程探讨了从客户提出个性化需求(服务请求)开始,到整个服务供应链建立的一个完整过程。
(5)个性化需求预测方法。针对个性化需求随机性和自相关性的特点,论文引入模糊权马尔可夫模型应用于个性化需求预测中,论述了其必要性及可行性,阐明了预测的具体步骤：利用销售序列的均方差建立分级标准,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,结合转移概率矩阵计算出预测时段的状态概率,通过模糊集理论中级别特征值求出具体的个性化需求预测量。
(6)个性化服务能力测评。论文对个性化服务能力进行了定义,借鉴GAP差距模型,对个性化服务能力测评原理和测评指标进行了系统分析和梳理,提出了包括7大类22个具体指标的测评体系；并采用主成分分析法和熵值法相结合的方法,设计了个性化服务能力的计算步骤和定量算法。
(7)实证分析。以LJ公司物流服务供应链为例,从运作过程设计、个性化需求分析、个性化服务能力等方面对物流服务供应链项目进行了设计分析,简要说明IDOSSC在实际中的应用。
(8)研究展望。论文指出了今后的研究方向：IDOSSC在具体不同服务行业中的应用；个性化需求预测如何实现服务产品类别及属性的预测；个性化服务能力与个性化需求的协同运作问题。
ABSTRACT:From the perspective of the evolution of production patterns, Individual Model has become a trend. There are typical individual characteristics for the service product. With service offerings in the growing share of the national economy, it is necessary to specialized research on the operation of service products under the individual trend. This paper attempts to create a prototype model of services supply chain under the Individual Mode. It is designed to highlight how to more effectively meet the customer's individual demand in the operation of service supply chain. Specifically, there are mainly the following aspects of work:
(1) Analysis on the current situation of domestic and foreign research. Thesis research status was analyzed with domestic and foreign research. It is put forward from the "individual demand" perspective to analyze the research of service supply chain. The practice of the thesis and theoretical significance are described. And with multi-disciplinary, multi-method integration, systematic analysis and focused research combining theoretical study and empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis of research methods, it is to complete the research work "operation mode of individual demand-oriented service supply chain (IDOSSC)".
(2) The definition, classification and quantitative description of individual demand. Standing the perspective of the evolution from Mass Production, Mass Customization to Individual Mode, the individual demand is defined, and it is pointed out that the similarities and differences of individual demand and large-scale demand, and customized demand. Meanwhile, individual demand is development direction of large-scale demand, customized demand. From the perspectives of consumer purchasing motivation, consumer psychology, marketing and other, individual demand was classified. Individual demand was quantitative descripted, combined the three aspects with self-correlation, correlation and quantitative distribution of individual demand.
(3) The model of Individual Demand-oriented Service Supply Chain (IDOSSC). In IDOSSC model, the main line is the acquisition, analysis, processing and realization of the individual demand. Through the individual demand forecasting and individual service capacity management, service integrators grasp the changes of the customer demand, and constantly develop and seek new value growth.
(4) The operation methods of IDOSSC. The operation mode of IDOSSC was analyzed from the operational process, operational organization, and building process. Its operation process is divided into four stages:obtaining customer demand, analyzing customer demand, handling customer demand and achieving customer needs; The marks of Individuation is that the target of any business is not only to provide services to consumers, but also re-establish business organizational structure according to the individual demand of consumers, the organizational structure is the cooperative community. It is discussed that from the customer individual demand (service requests), the entire service supply chain was initially established as a complete process.
(5) The forecasting methods of individual demand. According to the randomness and self-correlation of individual demand, it is discussed in the necessity and feasibility of the introduction of fuzzy Markov chain model with weights to predict the future individual demand. The specific steps are explained:set up the classification by the standard deviation of sales series, and weighted by the standardized self-coefficients, calculated the transition probability matrix and the state probability. Then, a concrete forecasting value was obtained by using the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets.
(6) The assessment of individual service capacity. In this paper, the concept of individual service capacity is definite, and from the GAP model, it is system analysised that the assessment idea and evaluation indicators of individual service capacity, the formation of7categories of22specific indicators; and through the principal component analysis and entropy method are combined, the individual service capacity is assessed, the specific steps of assessment are described.
(7) Empirical Research. By logistics service supply chain in LJ Company, the project is designed from the operation process designing, individual deamnd analysis, and individual service capabilities.
(8) Prospects.The paper points out future research directions:IDOSSC in specific applications in different service industries; how to forecast the categories and attributes of service product; collaborative operational issues of individual service capabilities and individual demand.
(1)对国内外研究现状进行了分析。论文对国内外研究现状进行了分析,在现状分析的基础上,提出了从“个性化需求”的角度来分析研究服务供应链。对论文研究的实践和理论意义进行了阐述。并采取多学科、多方法集成,系统性分析和重点性研究相结合,理论研究与实证分析相结合,定性研究与定量分析相结合的研究方法来完成“基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式研究”的研究工作。
(2)个性化需求的定义、分类及其定量描述。论文站在从大规模生产、大规模定制到个性化模式演变的角度,对个性化需求进行了定义,指出了个性化需求与大规模需求、定制化需求的异同；从消费者购买动机、消费者心理、市场营销学等方面对个性化需求进行了分类,并结合个性化的相关性、自相关性以及需求数量分布特性对个性化需求进行了定量描述。
(3)基于个性化需求服务供应链模型。论文提出的基于个性化需求服务供应链(Individual Demand-oriented Service Supply Chain, IDOSSC)模型,以个性化需求的获取、分析、处理和实现为主线,通过对个性化需求预测和个性化服务能力管理,把握客户需求的变动和趋势,为实现新的价值增长点提供支持。
(4)基于个性化需求服务供应链运作模式。论文从运作流程、运作组织、构建过程三个方面对IDOSSC运作模式进行了分析。运作流程以客户的个性化需求为导向,划分为对客户需求的获取、分析、处理及实现四个阶段；运作组织以合作共同体为架构,根据个性化需求、而不仅只是提供一般性服务的思路,进行了组织重构；构建过程探讨了从客户提出个性化需求(服务请求)开始,到整个服务供应链建立的一个完整过程。
(5)个性化需求预测方法。针对个性化需求随机性和自相关性的特点,论文引入模糊权马尔可夫模型应用于个性化需求预测中,论述了其必要性及可行性,阐明了预测的具体步骤：利用销售序列的均方差建立分级标准,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,结合转移概率矩阵计算出预测时段的状态概率,通过模糊集理论中级别特征值求出具体的个性化需求预测量。
(6)个性化服务能力测评。论文对个性化服务能力进行了定义,借鉴GAP差距模型,对个性化服务能力测评原理和测评指标进行了系统分析和梳理,提出了包括7大类22个具体指标的测评体系；并采用主成分分析法和熵值法相结合的方法,设计了个性化服务能力的计算步骤和定量算法。
(7)实证分析。以LJ公司物流服务供应链为例,从运作过程设计、个性化需求分析、个性化服务能力等方面对物流服务供应链项目进行了设计分析,简要说明IDOSSC在实际中的应用。
(8)研究展望。论文指出了今后的研究方向：IDOSSC在具体不同服务行业中的应用；个性化需求预测如何实现服务产品类别及属性的预测；个性化服务能力与个性化需求的协同运作问题。
ABSTRACT:From the perspective of the evolution of production patterns, Individual Model has become a trend. There are typical individual characteristics for the service product. With service offerings in the growing share of the national economy, it is necessary to specialized research on the operation of service products under the individual trend. This paper attempts to create a prototype model of services supply chain under the Individual Mode. It is designed to highlight how to more effectively meet the customer's individual demand in the operation of service supply chain. Specifically, there are mainly the following aspects of work:
(1) Analysis on the current situation of domestic and foreign research. Thesis research status was analyzed with domestic and foreign research. It is put forward from the "individual demand" perspective to analyze the research of service supply chain. The practice of the thesis and theoretical significance are described. And with multi-disciplinary, multi-method integration, systematic analysis and focused research combining theoretical study and empirical analysis, qualitative and quantitative analysis of research methods, it is to complete the research work "operation mode of individual demand-oriented service supply chain (IDOSSC)".
(2) The definition, classification and quantitative description of individual demand. Standing the perspective of the evolution from Mass Production, Mass Customization to Individual Mode, the individual demand is defined, and it is pointed out that the similarities and differences of individual demand and large-scale demand, and customized demand. Meanwhile, individual demand is development direction of large-scale demand, customized demand. From the perspectives of consumer purchasing motivation, consumer psychology, marketing and other, individual demand was classified. Individual demand was quantitative descripted, combined the three aspects with self-correlation, correlation and quantitative distribution of individual demand.
(3) The model of Individual Demand-oriented Service Supply Chain (IDOSSC). In IDOSSC model, the main line is the acquisition, analysis, processing and realization of the individual demand. Through the individual demand forecasting and individual service capacity management, service integrators grasp the changes of the customer demand, and constantly develop and seek new value growth.
(4) The operation methods of IDOSSC. The operation mode of IDOSSC was analyzed from the operational process, operational organization, and building process. Its operation process is divided into four stages:obtaining customer demand, analyzing customer demand, handling customer demand and achieving customer needs; The marks of Individuation is that the target of any business is not only to provide services to consumers, but also re-establish business organizational structure according to the individual demand of consumers, the organizational structure is the cooperative community. It is discussed that from the customer individual demand (service requests), the entire service supply chain was initially established as a complete process.
(5) The forecasting methods of individual demand. According to the randomness and self-correlation of individual demand, it is discussed in the necessity and feasibility of the introduction of fuzzy Markov chain model with weights to predict the future individual demand. The specific steps are explained:set up the classification by the standard deviation of sales series, and weighted by the standardized self-coefficients, calculated the transition probability matrix and the state probability. Then, a concrete forecasting value was obtained by using the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets.
(6) The assessment of individual service capacity. In this paper, the concept of individual service capacity is definite, and from the GAP model, it is system analysised that the assessment idea and evaluation indicators of individual service capacity, the formation of7categories of22specific indicators; and through the principal component analysis and entropy method are combined, the individual service capacity is assessed, the specific steps of assessment are described.
(7) Empirical Research. By logistics service supply chain in LJ Company, the project is designed from the operation process designing, individual deamnd analysis, and individual service capabilities.
(8) Prospects.The paper points out future research directions:IDOSSC in specific applications in different service industries; how to forecast the categories and attributes of service product; collaborative operational issues of individual service capabilities and individual demand.
引文
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