宏观流动性管理：对货币政策的替代
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摘要
由于金融资产在金融体系中发挥更为重要的作用,货币与产出、物价的关系变得不再稳定,传统的货币政策调控也面临诸多困境。为了解决以上问题,本文提出宏观流动性理论,将货币与金融资产纳入到统一的理论分析框架,并以此为基础进一步构建宏观流动性管理政策。
宏观流动性的内涵在于寻找金融体系中与产出具有稳定相关关系的变量,并且可以通过对宏观流动性的监测和调控实现调节宏观经济运行的目标。对经济运行的资金流量分析显示,融资过程中形成的资金流量一方面与产出对应,另一方面形成金融资产与负债而与信用扩张水平相对应。由于信用扩张水平作为一项金融变量满足可测性、可控性与相关性的要求,因此真正体现了宏观流动性的内涵。
可以根据宏观流动性的需求函数和效用函数构造包含宏观流动性的一般均衡,从而分析宏观流动性对产出与物价的影响。宏观流动性的传导机制有物价传导机制、资产价格传导机制和全要素生产率传导机制。总体而言,宏观流动性是通过数量和价格两方面对经济运行产生影响。
对宏观流动性的界定可以从经济整体的四大部门进行分析,分别是非金融私人部门、金融部门、政府部门和国外部门。非金融私人部门宏观流动性界定为社会融资总量,金融部门宏观流动性则为金融机构总资产与产出系数的乘积,政府部门宏观流动性为政府部门净融资额,国外部门宏观流动性为国际投资净头寸的变化金额。以上四部门宏观流动性加总构成了经济整体的宏观流动性总量。
货币分析是特殊的宏观流动性分析。宏观流动性分析既包括了货币资产变化引起的信用扩张水平变化,也包括了其他金融资产变化引起的信用扩张水平变化。同时宏观流动性分析通过资金流量直接与产出对应,而货币分析由于是存量分析,其与产出的对应关系需要以货币流通速度稳定为前提。因此,宏观流动性分析是涉及整个金融体系的完整而统一的分析框架,而只有在特殊条件下货币分析才能替代宏观流动性分析。
对中国宏观流动性总量以及各部门的宏观流动性的分析显示宏观流动性指标与总产出以及各部门产出之间具有稳定的相关关系。因此,不仅可以通过监测、调控宏观流动性总量来调节经济整体运行,同时还可以通过监测、调控各部门宏观流动性来分别调节各部门经济运行。
私人部门的信用扩张可分为非金融部门与金融部门两部分进行分析。非金融私人部门信用扩张水平可以由社会融资总量表示。金融部门的信用扩张对整体经济的影响可以分为三个方面。一是金融部门信用扩张导致金融业增加值的增加。这方面的影响可以从金融部门宏观流动性得到反映。二是金融部门信用扩张将同时导致其他部门信用扩张,进而造成经济波动。这方面的影响可以由非金融私人部门宏观流动性反映。三是金融部门在信用扩张的同时会导致金融不稳定的问题,从而影响经济运行。在金融体系的信用扩张占据更为重要地位的背景下,金融不稳定性问题出现新的特征。
通过货币分析框架来监测、调控政府购买在大部分情况下是不可行的。只有通过宏观流动性框架才能实现监测、调控政府购买,协调配合财政与货币政策,达到宏观调控的最终目标。欧债危机的案例显示,正是由于欧元区各国的财政政策、货币政策、汇率政策等宏观调控政策之间缺乏统一的配合协调框架才导致了严重的后果。如果使用宏观流动性分析、管理框架则可以有效解决以上问题。
国外部门宏观流动性对经济的影响可以分为直接效应与间接效应两个部分。直接效应是指国外部门宏观流动性的变化会直接导致净出口的变化,从而影响经济波动。间接效应是指国外部门资金流量的变化还会间接导致国内私人或政府部门宏观流动性的变化,从而间接导致经济波动。经常账户下的资金流动会直接改变国外部门宏观流动性,而资本与金融账户下的资金流动并不直接改变国外部门宏观流动性,但通过改变国内部门宏观流动性同样对整体经济形成影响。通过宏观流动性视角的分析可以更好地解决政策的内外协调问题。
宏观流动性指标可以分为数量型和价格型两类。数量型指标中,宏观流动性总量和各部门宏观流动性指标应选作中间目标,而金融部门宏观流动性指标应选作监测指标。价格型指标中,基准利率应选作中间目标,而长短期国债利差、企业债国债利差等各类金融市场风险利差指标应选作监测指标。同时应当创建与之相对应的政策工具,构建宏观流动性管理框架。
For financial assets playing more important role in financial system and the relationship between monetary assets, output and inflation is no longer stable, the traditional monetary policy is facing many difficulties. In order to solve the above problems, this paper puts forward macro-liquidity theory which bring monetary assets and financial assets into a uniform analysis system and as the basis for futher construction of the macro-liquidity management policy.
Macro-liquidity has the connotation of finding a stable relationship between the variables in the financial system and output, and by monitoring and regulation to achieve the goal of regulating the macroeconomic performance. By analyzing the funds flow of the economic performance, shows that the funds flow in financing process correspond with output on the one hand, on the other hand the formation of financial assets and liabilities correspond with the level of credit expansion. Owing to the level of credit expansion as a financial variable satisfies testability, controllability and related requirements, truly reflect the connotation of the macro-liquidity.
The demand function of the macro-liquidity and utility functions constructed a general equilibrium, using which to analyze the impact of macro-liquidity on output and inflation. The transmission mechanism of macro-liquidity includes inflation transmission mechanism, asset price transmission mechanism and total factor productivity transmission mechanism. In general, the macro-liquidity impact on the economy performance by both quantity and price.
From the four sectors of the economy as a whole to analyze the definition of the macro-liquidity, respectively, non-financial private sectors, financial sectors, government sectors and foreign sectors. Macro-liquidity for non-financial private sectors is defined as the total social financing, Macro-liquidity for financial sectors is defined as the product of total assets of financial institutions and the output coefficients, Macro-liquidity for government sectors is defined as net amount of the financing of the government sectors, Macro-liquidity for foreign sectors is defined as the changes in the amount of net international investment. The above four sectors macro-liquidity sum constitutes the total macro-liquidity.
According to the analysis of China's total macro-liquidity and sectoral macro-liquidity shows the stable relationship between the macro-liquidity indicators and the total output as well as sectoral output. Therefore, not only by monitoring the regulation of total macro-liquidity to regulate the whole economy performance, but also through monitoring, regulation of the sectoral macro-liquidity to regulate the economic performance of the various sectors.
Macro-liquidity indicators can be divided into two types of quantitative and price type. To quantitative indicators, the total macro-liquidity and sectoral macro-liquidity indicators should be selected as the intermediate target, and the macro-liquidity for financial sectors should be selected as indicators for monitoring. To price indicators, the benchmark interest rate should be chosen as the intermediate target, and the short-term and long-term bond spreads, corporate bonds and bond spreads, and other types of financial market risk spreads indicators should be selected as indicators for monitoring. Simultaneously should create the corresponding policy tools to build the macro-liquidity management framework.
宏观流动性的内涵在于寻找金融体系中与产出具有稳定相关关系的变量,并且可以通过对宏观流动性的监测和调控实现调节宏观经济运行的目标。对经济运行的资金流量分析显示,融资过程中形成的资金流量一方面与产出对应,另一方面形成金融资产与负债而与信用扩张水平相对应。由于信用扩张水平作为一项金融变量满足可测性、可控性与相关性的要求,因此真正体现了宏观流动性的内涵。
可以根据宏观流动性的需求函数和效用函数构造包含宏观流动性的一般均衡,从而分析宏观流动性对产出与物价的影响。宏观流动性的传导机制有物价传导机制、资产价格传导机制和全要素生产率传导机制。总体而言,宏观流动性是通过数量和价格两方面对经济运行产生影响。
对宏观流动性的界定可以从经济整体的四大部门进行分析,分别是非金融私人部门、金融部门、政府部门和国外部门。非金融私人部门宏观流动性界定为社会融资总量,金融部门宏观流动性则为金融机构总资产与产出系数的乘积,政府部门宏观流动性为政府部门净融资额,国外部门宏观流动性为国际投资净头寸的变化金额。以上四部门宏观流动性加总构成了经济整体的宏观流动性总量。
货币分析是特殊的宏观流动性分析。宏观流动性分析既包括了货币资产变化引起的信用扩张水平变化,也包括了其他金融资产变化引起的信用扩张水平变化。同时宏观流动性分析通过资金流量直接与产出对应,而货币分析由于是存量分析,其与产出的对应关系需要以货币流通速度稳定为前提。因此,宏观流动性分析是涉及整个金融体系的完整而统一的分析框架,而只有在特殊条件下货币分析才能替代宏观流动性分析。
对中国宏观流动性总量以及各部门的宏观流动性的分析显示宏观流动性指标与总产出以及各部门产出之间具有稳定的相关关系。因此,不仅可以通过监测、调控宏观流动性总量来调节经济整体运行,同时还可以通过监测、调控各部门宏观流动性来分别调节各部门经济运行。
私人部门的信用扩张可分为非金融部门与金融部门两部分进行分析。非金融私人部门信用扩张水平可以由社会融资总量表示。金融部门的信用扩张对整体经济的影响可以分为三个方面。一是金融部门信用扩张导致金融业增加值的增加。这方面的影响可以从金融部门宏观流动性得到反映。二是金融部门信用扩张将同时导致其他部门信用扩张,进而造成经济波动。这方面的影响可以由非金融私人部门宏观流动性反映。三是金融部门在信用扩张的同时会导致金融不稳定的问题,从而影响经济运行。在金融体系的信用扩张占据更为重要地位的背景下,金融不稳定性问题出现新的特征。
通过货币分析框架来监测、调控政府购买在大部分情况下是不可行的。只有通过宏观流动性框架才能实现监测、调控政府购买,协调配合财政与货币政策,达到宏观调控的最终目标。欧债危机的案例显示,正是由于欧元区各国的财政政策、货币政策、汇率政策等宏观调控政策之间缺乏统一的配合协调框架才导致了严重的后果。如果使用宏观流动性分析、管理框架则可以有效解决以上问题。
国外部门宏观流动性对经济的影响可以分为直接效应与间接效应两个部分。直接效应是指国外部门宏观流动性的变化会直接导致净出口的变化,从而影响经济波动。间接效应是指国外部门资金流量的变化还会间接导致国内私人或政府部门宏观流动性的变化,从而间接导致经济波动。经常账户下的资金流动会直接改变国外部门宏观流动性,而资本与金融账户下的资金流动并不直接改变国外部门宏观流动性,但通过改变国内部门宏观流动性同样对整体经济形成影响。通过宏观流动性视角的分析可以更好地解决政策的内外协调问题。
宏观流动性指标可以分为数量型和价格型两类。数量型指标中,宏观流动性总量和各部门宏观流动性指标应选作中间目标,而金融部门宏观流动性指标应选作监测指标。价格型指标中,基准利率应选作中间目标,而长短期国债利差、企业债国债利差等各类金融市场风险利差指标应选作监测指标。同时应当创建与之相对应的政策工具,构建宏观流动性管理框架。
For financial assets playing more important role in financial system and the relationship between monetary assets, output and inflation is no longer stable, the traditional monetary policy is facing many difficulties. In order to solve the above problems, this paper puts forward macro-liquidity theory which bring monetary assets and financial assets into a uniform analysis system and as the basis for futher construction of the macro-liquidity management policy.
Macro-liquidity has the connotation of finding a stable relationship between the variables in the financial system and output, and by monitoring and regulation to achieve the goal of regulating the macroeconomic performance. By analyzing the funds flow of the economic performance, shows that the funds flow in financing process correspond with output on the one hand, on the other hand the formation of financial assets and liabilities correspond with the level of credit expansion. Owing to the level of credit expansion as a financial variable satisfies testability, controllability and related requirements, truly reflect the connotation of the macro-liquidity.
The demand function of the macro-liquidity and utility functions constructed a general equilibrium, using which to analyze the impact of macro-liquidity on output and inflation. The transmission mechanism of macro-liquidity includes inflation transmission mechanism, asset price transmission mechanism and total factor productivity transmission mechanism. In general, the macro-liquidity impact on the economy performance by both quantity and price.
From the four sectors of the economy as a whole to analyze the definition of the macro-liquidity, respectively, non-financial private sectors, financial sectors, government sectors and foreign sectors. Macro-liquidity for non-financial private sectors is defined as the total social financing, Macro-liquidity for financial sectors is defined as the product of total assets of financial institutions and the output coefficients, Macro-liquidity for government sectors is defined as net amount of the financing of the government sectors, Macro-liquidity for foreign sectors is defined as the changes in the amount of net international investment. The above four sectors macro-liquidity sum constitutes the total macro-liquidity.
According to the analysis of China's total macro-liquidity and sectoral macro-liquidity shows the stable relationship between the macro-liquidity indicators and the total output as well as sectoral output. Therefore, not only by monitoring the regulation of total macro-liquidity to regulate the whole economy performance, but also through monitoring, regulation of the sectoral macro-liquidity to regulate the economic performance of the various sectors.
Macro-liquidity indicators can be divided into two types of quantitative and price type. To quantitative indicators, the total macro-liquidity and sectoral macro-liquidity indicators should be selected as the intermediate target, and the macro-liquidity for financial sectors should be selected as indicators for monitoring. To price indicators, the benchmark interest rate should be chosen as the intermediate target, and the short-term and long-term bond spreads, corporate bonds and bond spreads, and other types of financial market risk spreads indicators should be selected as indicators for monitoring. Simultaneously should create the corresponding policy tools to build the macro-liquidity management framework.
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