多方式客运通道结构演变与发展研究
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摘要
客运通道连接了主要的经济点、生产点、重要城市和交通枢纽,承担大量、快速的旅客运输,是国家经济社会发展的重要物质基础,在综合运输体系中占有重要地位。多年来,我国主要运输通道的能力十分紧张,不同运输方式难以进行合理分工协作和有效的衔接配套,降低了交通运输系统的整体效率和服务质量。随着我国经济的持续增长与人民生活水平的提高,旅客运输需求的增长十分迅速,对客运通道运输系统构成了巨大的压力。目前,我国正处于客运通道大发展的时期,经济发展与技术进步也直接带来客运通道内运输结构的巨大变化。因此,系统地认识客运通道,分析多方式的客运通道结构演变过程和资源配置情况,已成为政府部门和学术界重要的研究对象。
本文以多方式客运通道为对象,重点研究了客运通道运输结构和系统发展的相关理论方法与实证问题。论文的主要工作包括以下几方面：
(1)依据客运通道的基本特征,分析了现状客运通道的分类方式,提出了按照服务特征和功能特征的分类方式。总结了影响客运通道建设和发展的自然地理条件、经济发展水平和政治导向因素。将客运通道的演化过程分为四个阶段,并指出客运通道发展的一般趋势。以国内外典型客运通道为例,说明客运通道的形成发展与人口分布、经济发展水平和国家发展战略密不可分。
(2)基于客运通道的结构特征,运用复杂理论和分形几何学的研究成果,分析了客运通道的拓扑结构和空间形态分布特征。以珠三角客运通道为例,从交通节点角度分析了客运通道节点度分布,得到累积节点度分布服从Weibull分布。提出用客运通道标准结构熵度量客运通道的有序程度,标准结构熵越小,客运通道的有序性越高,且在无外界影响情况下,标准结构熵不断增大。通过协同学原理分析了影响客运通道拓扑结构演化的效用函数,指出客运通道的演化是短期和长期生存效用共同作用的结果,并通过两者的相互作用来考察客运通道网络的网络拓扑结构演化。案例研究表明,铁路的运输效率最高,公路的鲁棒性最好。
(3)从运输线路角度提出用分形维数表征客运通道的网络覆盖度,证明珠三角客运通道具备分形特征。珠三角客运通道案例研究表明：公路的网络覆盖度最大为1.495、铁路最小为1.050,并且发现在一定时期内客运通道覆盖度的发展与运输成本下降率正相关。在此基础上分析现状珠三角客运通道中存在的问题,指出珠三角内部铁路发展相对滞后,需要大力建设轨道交通。在轨道交通网络建设完成之后,网络连通性将增大3倍,各个城市之间的联系也将更加紧密,轨道交通网络的标准熵将增加4.48%,轨道交通网络覆盖度将增大36.19%,客运通道结构将得到改善,整个通道会更加高效、稳定地发展。
(4)考虑到旅客出行方式选择在很大程度上与出行者的心理特性有关的因素,通过引入“旅客心理变量”,分析了客运通道内不同运输方式竞争中的旅客选择心理,构建了考虑出行者心理特征的客运通道内多方式竞争力的改进Logit模型,给出了模型参数标定与选择方法。以广深客运通道为案例,基于本文构建的竞争力模型,通过对不同收入旅客群体的出行方式选择问题进行建模研究,得出了不同运输方式的客流分担率以及未来高速铁路旅客主体的目标人群,为今后通道内客运结构调整以及客流预测提供理论依据。
(5)根据交通运输能源消耗以及相关统计数据,构建了铁路与公路能耗测算模型,测算了不同运输方式的客运能耗因子,结果表明：铁路、水运、航空三种运输方式的客运能耗因子均呈现显著下降趋势,公路呈缓慢增长趋势；铁路客运能耗因子(非高速客运专线)大约是公路客运能耗因子的8.64%；当满载率在80%-100%之间时,高速铁路客运能耗因子仅约为航空客运能耗因子的10%。相对而言,在目前的技术水平和运输载荷水平下,铁路仍然是最为节能的交通方式。在此基础上,以合理配置最小能耗最大限度满足社会经济发展需要的客运通道为目标,提出了我国多方式客运通道运输结构发展策略。
Passenger transportation corridor connects major cities and transport hubs, which shares high proportion of passenger transport volume. It is considered as the material base of development of social and economic. Therefore, passenger transportation corridor plays an important role in integrated transport system. However, Chinese main transportation corridors have insufficient capacity for many years. Cooperations and interchanges with each other for multi-modes in passenger transportation corridors have not effectively formed, which results in reduction of transport system's efficiency and service quality. As sustained economic growth and living standard improvement, rapid growth of passenger transport demand results in huge pressure on passenger transportation corridor. Nowadays, the big development period of passenger transport corridor is happening in China, at the same time the economy and technology improvement makes big changes to the transport structure. It has become an important issue for both government and researchers that systematically understanding passenger transport system, analyzing evolution of passenger transportation corridor, and rationally allocating resource.
On the basis of full consideration of differences in features and relative service levels of multi-modes in integrated transport network, this paper focus on theory related to passenger transport system and empirical issues of passenger transportation corridor. The main work includes the following aspects.
(1) Analyzing the method of types classification based on basic characteristics of passenger transportation corridor, this paper proposed new method of type classification based on level of services and functional characteristics. Also, the effect of geographical conditions, economic development level and political orientation factors on construction and development of passenger transportation corridor is summarized. Dividing evolution of the passenger transportation corridor into four stages, the general trend of development of passenger transportation corridor is pointed out. The case study of typical passenger transportation corridor shows that formation of passenger transportation corridor is highly related to population distribution, economic development and national development strategies.
(2) In view of the complex network character of structure, this paper analyzed the topological structure and space form features of passenger transportation corridors by complexity theory and fractal geometry research respectively. As an example of Pearl River Delta passenger corridor, it studied the nodes degree cumulative probability distribution, which could be described well by Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the Passenger Corridor Standard Structure Entropy (PCSSE) is proposed to measure the order degree of passenger corridor. The results show that the smaller value of PCSSE has more orderliness structure and the passenger transportation corridor development process with entropy increase in the condition of no energy complement. Based on the synergetic theory, utility function of topological structure is considered to explain the changing of passenger transportation corridors which is the result of the interaction between short term existence effect and long term existence effect. The case study shows railway transport is the most efficiency, whereas road transport is the most robustness in Pearl River Delta passenger corridor.
(3) Considering transport routes in network, this paper proposed coverage intensity of passenger transportation corridor network using concept of fractal geometry and proved fractal feature of Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor. The case study of Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor shows that road Transport and railway Transport network coverage intensity are1.495and1.050, respectively. Also, it was found that development of passenger transport network coverage intensity is related to reduction of transport cost. Based on analyzing network coverage intensity, it points out problems existed in Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor. The results show that development of railway transport network is relatively lagged behind the other modes, which should be made efforts to develop railway transport network. Moreover, transport network connectivity will increase three times after completing construction of railway transport network, resulting highly connectivity between various cities. Meanwhile, standard entropy of railway transport network will increase4.48%; network coverage of railway transport network will increase36.19%, which structure of passenger transportation corridor will be improved significantly, and developed efficiently.
(4) This paper inputted potential psychological variable into the competitiveness model of different modes in passenger transport corridors, which were highly related to the complex psychological course of travel choice behavior. On the basis of analysis the psychological course of travel choice behavior of passengers, this paper improved the Logit model, and proposed the method for parameters calibration. With this model, this paper studied the passenger composition of various colonies, which were grouped by the income separately based on statistical data of Guangzhou-Shenzhen passenger corridor. The result shows the share rates of various modes of transport and the target groups of high-speed railway of Guangzhou-Shenzhen passenger corridor. This method can provide theoretical basis for the optimization of share rates of various modes and forecast of passenger flow in transportation corridor.
(5) According to the energy consumption and related statistical data, this paper developed weighted model to calculate passenger energy consumption factors of different modes of transport. The results show that passenger energy consumption factors for railway, water and air transport decrease significantly, contrarily, passenger energy consumption factor for road transport increases slightly. Moreover, passenger energy consumption factor for railway transport (excluding high speed railway) is approximately8.64%to that of road transport. If load factor is80%-100%, passenger energy consumption factor for high speed rail is approximately10%to that of air transport. Under the current level of technology and transport load factors, railway transport is proved as the most energy-efficient transport mode than others. In order to realize the maximum development of social and economics with minimum energy consumption, this paper makes a proposal to develop multi-modes passenger transport corridor by rationally allocating the resources.
本文以多方式客运通道为对象,重点研究了客运通道运输结构和系统发展的相关理论方法与实证问题。论文的主要工作包括以下几方面：
(1)依据客运通道的基本特征,分析了现状客运通道的分类方式,提出了按照服务特征和功能特征的分类方式。总结了影响客运通道建设和发展的自然地理条件、经济发展水平和政治导向因素。将客运通道的演化过程分为四个阶段,并指出客运通道发展的一般趋势。以国内外典型客运通道为例,说明客运通道的形成发展与人口分布、经济发展水平和国家发展战略密不可分。
(2)基于客运通道的结构特征,运用复杂理论和分形几何学的研究成果,分析了客运通道的拓扑结构和空间形态分布特征。以珠三角客运通道为例,从交通节点角度分析了客运通道节点度分布,得到累积节点度分布服从Weibull分布。提出用客运通道标准结构熵度量客运通道的有序程度,标准结构熵越小,客运通道的有序性越高,且在无外界影响情况下,标准结构熵不断增大。通过协同学原理分析了影响客运通道拓扑结构演化的效用函数,指出客运通道的演化是短期和长期生存效用共同作用的结果,并通过两者的相互作用来考察客运通道网络的网络拓扑结构演化。案例研究表明,铁路的运输效率最高,公路的鲁棒性最好。
(3)从运输线路角度提出用分形维数表征客运通道的网络覆盖度,证明珠三角客运通道具备分形特征。珠三角客运通道案例研究表明：公路的网络覆盖度最大为1.495、铁路最小为1.050,并且发现在一定时期内客运通道覆盖度的发展与运输成本下降率正相关。在此基础上分析现状珠三角客运通道中存在的问题,指出珠三角内部铁路发展相对滞后,需要大力建设轨道交通。在轨道交通网络建设完成之后,网络连通性将增大3倍,各个城市之间的联系也将更加紧密,轨道交通网络的标准熵将增加4.48%,轨道交通网络覆盖度将增大36.19%,客运通道结构将得到改善,整个通道会更加高效、稳定地发展。
(4)考虑到旅客出行方式选择在很大程度上与出行者的心理特性有关的因素,通过引入“旅客心理变量”,分析了客运通道内不同运输方式竞争中的旅客选择心理,构建了考虑出行者心理特征的客运通道内多方式竞争力的改进Logit模型,给出了模型参数标定与选择方法。以广深客运通道为案例,基于本文构建的竞争力模型,通过对不同收入旅客群体的出行方式选择问题进行建模研究,得出了不同运输方式的客流分担率以及未来高速铁路旅客主体的目标人群,为今后通道内客运结构调整以及客流预测提供理论依据。
(5)根据交通运输能源消耗以及相关统计数据,构建了铁路与公路能耗测算模型,测算了不同运输方式的客运能耗因子,结果表明：铁路、水运、航空三种运输方式的客运能耗因子均呈现显著下降趋势,公路呈缓慢增长趋势；铁路客运能耗因子(非高速客运专线)大约是公路客运能耗因子的8.64%；当满载率在80%-100%之间时,高速铁路客运能耗因子仅约为航空客运能耗因子的10%。相对而言,在目前的技术水平和运输载荷水平下,铁路仍然是最为节能的交通方式。在此基础上,以合理配置最小能耗最大限度满足社会经济发展需要的客运通道为目标,提出了我国多方式客运通道运输结构发展策略。
Passenger transportation corridor connects major cities and transport hubs, which shares high proportion of passenger transport volume. It is considered as the material base of development of social and economic. Therefore, passenger transportation corridor plays an important role in integrated transport system. However, Chinese main transportation corridors have insufficient capacity for many years. Cooperations and interchanges with each other for multi-modes in passenger transportation corridors have not effectively formed, which results in reduction of transport system's efficiency and service quality. As sustained economic growth and living standard improvement, rapid growth of passenger transport demand results in huge pressure on passenger transportation corridor. Nowadays, the big development period of passenger transport corridor is happening in China, at the same time the economy and technology improvement makes big changes to the transport structure. It has become an important issue for both government and researchers that systematically understanding passenger transport system, analyzing evolution of passenger transportation corridor, and rationally allocating resource.
On the basis of full consideration of differences in features and relative service levels of multi-modes in integrated transport network, this paper focus on theory related to passenger transport system and empirical issues of passenger transportation corridor. The main work includes the following aspects.
(1) Analyzing the method of types classification based on basic characteristics of passenger transportation corridor, this paper proposed new method of type classification based on level of services and functional characteristics. Also, the effect of geographical conditions, economic development level and political orientation factors on construction and development of passenger transportation corridor is summarized. Dividing evolution of the passenger transportation corridor into four stages, the general trend of development of passenger transportation corridor is pointed out. The case study of typical passenger transportation corridor shows that formation of passenger transportation corridor is highly related to population distribution, economic development and national development strategies.
(2) In view of the complex network character of structure, this paper analyzed the topological structure and space form features of passenger transportation corridors by complexity theory and fractal geometry research respectively. As an example of Pearl River Delta passenger corridor, it studied the nodes degree cumulative probability distribution, which could be described well by Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the Passenger Corridor Standard Structure Entropy (PCSSE) is proposed to measure the order degree of passenger corridor. The results show that the smaller value of PCSSE has more orderliness structure and the passenger transportation corridor development process with entropy increase in the condition of no energy complement. Based on the synergetic theory, utility function of topological structure is considered to explain the changing of passenger transportation corridors which is the result of the interaction between short term existence effect and long term existence effect. The case study shows railway transport is the most efficiency, whereas road transport is the most robustness in Pearl River Delta passenger corridor.
(3) Considering transport routes in network, this paper proposed coverage intensity of passenger transportation corridor network using concept of fractal geometry and proved fractal feature of Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor. The case study of Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor shows that road Transport and railway Transport network coverage intensity are1.495and1.050, respectively. Also, it was found that development of passenger transport network coverage intensity is related to reduction of transport cost. Based on analyzing network coverage intensity, it points out problems existed in Pearl River Delta passenger transportation corridor. The results show that development of railway transport network is relatively lagged behind the other modes, which should be made efforts to develop railway transport network. Moreover, transport network connectivity will increase three times after completing construction of railway transport network, resulting highly connectivity between various cities. Meanwhile, standard entropy of railway transport network will increase4.48%; network coverage of railway transport network will increase36.19%, which structure of passenger transportation corridor will be improved significantly, and developed efficiently.
(4) This paper inputted potential psychological variable into the competitiveness model of different modes in passenger transport corridors, which were highly related to the complex psychological course of travel choice behavior. On the basis of analysis the psychological course of travel choice behavior of passengers, this paper improved the Logit model, and proposed the method for parameters calibration. With this model, this paper studied the passenger composition of various colonies, which were grouped by the income separately based on statistical data of Guangzhou-Shenzhen passenger corridor. The result shows the share rates of various modes of transport and the target groups of high-speed railway of Guangzhou-Shenzhen passenger corridor. This method can provide theoretical basis for the optimization of share rates of various modes and forecast of passenger flow in transportation corridor.
(5) According to the energy consumption and related statistical data, this paper developed weighted model to calculate passenger energy consumption factors of different modes of transport. The results show that passenger energy consumption factors for railway, water and air transport decrease significantly, contrarily, passenger energy consumption factor for road transport increases slightly. Moreover, passenger energy consumption factor for railway transport (excluding high speed railway) is approximately8.64%to that of road transport. If load factor is80%-100%, passenger energy consumption factor for high speed rail is approximately10%to that of air transport. Under the current level of technology and transport load factors, railway transport is proved as the most energy-efficient transport mode than others. In order to realize the maximum development of social and economics with minimum energy consumption, this paper makes a proposal to develop multi-modes passenger transport corridor by rationally allocating the resources.
引文
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