中国对外贸易的本土市场效应研究
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摘要
国际贸易对我国国民经济发展极为重要,出口更是在我国改革开放三十年中为经济发展做出了巨大贡献,其中机电产品出口则更是重中之重。从机电产品出口绝对额和出口占比看,2006年、2007年、2008年、2009年及2010年我国机电产品出口总额分别为5494.2亿美元、5494.2亿美元、8217.3亿美元、7196.1亿美元和9334.1亿美元,占所有商品出口总额的比例分别为56.7%、57.5%、57.5%、54.6%和58.1%,所以说,机电产品贸易在我国对外贸易中处于举足轻重的地位。
但在世界经济复苏势头放缓,贸易保护主义抬头的大背景下,我国机电产品贸易也面临着诸多困难,如国际市场需求增长动力不足、贸易摩擦不断加剧、企业的经营综合成本不断上升等,综合考虑各种因素,我国机电产品贸易要想保持可持续发展,必须改变传统的贸易优势,寻找新的竞争优势来源；本土市场效应能够从成本、贸易壁垒等多个层面来提升我国机电产品的贸易竞争力,是一个值得尝试的新思路。那么,我国机电产品贸易中是否存在本土市场效应?如果存在,应该如何发挥本土市场效应来提升机电产品贸易的竞争力?
为了验证本土市场效应在我国机电贸易中的存在性,本文以我国机电产品SITC.7部门为例对本土市场效应作了较为深入的研究。整篇文章主要从四个方面开展研究：
首先,本文探讨了本土市场效应的理论演进和内涵,通过对其理论基础的分析,梳理了本土市场效应的理论演进路径；在此基础上,从理论内涵和实证应用两个层面对国内外本土市场效应的研究进行了探讨,提出了本文的立足点和出发点。
其次,按照本土市场效应模型构建的核心要素和在不同时期面临的调整,本文尝试从静态和动态两个视角对本土市场效应进行了全方位的分析；认为静态分析在构建理论分析模型中,探寻出本土市场效应功能发挥的关键要素；动态分析探讨了企业性质不同、企业策略性行为、贸易成本不同、贸易主体性质和数量等方面的改变对本土市场效应的影响,重在探讨本土市场效应发展过程中面临的调整；静态功能的发展为动态功能的发挥奠定核心基础,而动态功能是静态功能的延伸和深化,初步实现本十市场效应分析的静态和动态有机融合和互动。
再次,结合我国机电产品贸易的发展历程,以中国机电产品贸易SITC.7部门三位数为例进行实证了分析,本文借鉴引力模型在国际贸易实证研究中的应用方法构建了研究模型,并采用面板数据随机效应模型的估计方法,对中国及其25个贸易伙伴1990-2009年SITC.7部门二位数的贸易数据等资料,使用EViews5.0软件进行了模型估计验证。实证研究结果显示：在所验证的17类三位数中,15类三位数机电产品行业的出口模型估计良好,模型估计检验达到预期,估计结果支持本土市场效应的存在性,或者说本土市场效应存在。
最后,从理论层面和实证层面对本文的研究结论进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。
Being one of "three carriages" of China's economic growths, foreign trade is extremely important for national economic development; And in the trade, export of mechanical and electrical products is the most important. From the absolute amount and proportion of export, the amount of export of mechanical and electrical products were US$ 549.42 billion, US$549.42 billion, US$821.73 billion and US$1204.53 billion respectively in 2006,2007,2008 and 2009, the proportion of Chinese foreign trade were more than 56.7%,57.5%,57.5%and 54.6% respectively. It can be said the trade of mechanical and electrical products is in a pivotal position in Chinese foreign trade.
However, under the background of slow recovery of world economy and the backdrop of trade protectionism, Chinese trades of mechanical and electrical products also face many difficulties, i.e., the lack of growth momentum of international market demand, the continued heating up of trade friction and the continued rising of integrated enterprise management cost. Considering various factors, in order to maintain sustainable development of Chinese foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products, we must find new sources of competitive advantage to change the traditional trade advantage. Home market effect is a new worthy idea to try because it can improve our foreign trade competitiveness of mechanical and electrical products from the costs, trade barriers and other aspects etc. So, whether our foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products existes the phenomenon of home market effect? If so, how to improve the competitiveness of foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products through the home market effect theory?
In order to verify the existence of home market effect, this paper research it based on SITC.7 factor of Chinese mechanical and electrical products SITC.7. This paper mainly divides into four areas as follows:
First, this paper discusses the content and evolution of home market effect to combine the path of evolution of it through analysis of its theoretical basis. On it, the paper discusses home market effect theory from two levels of theoretical and empirical application, and puts forward a foothold and starting point of this paper.
Second, this paper attempts to analyze a full range of home market effect from both static and dynamic perspective, according to the core elements of home market effect model which was built and the adjustment of it during different period. This paper thinks that static analysis in building a theoretical model can explore key elements which can make the functioning of home market effects. Also, the paper analyzes the home market effects from agricultural sector, heterogeneous, enterprise strategic behavior, trade costs and multinational corporations etc from dynamic perspective, focusing on adjustment which is faced at the development process of home market effect. The paper gets to know that the development of static function plays a core basis for the development of dynamic function, and the dynamic function is extension and deepening for the static function which can achieve integration and interaction for both static perspective and dynamic perspective of home market effects analysis.
Again, combined with the development process of Chinese foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products, the paper analyzes three digits of SITC.7 sector of Chinese mechanical and electrical products trade by empirical way. Reference gravity model's application methods in international trade empirical research way and estimation method of panel data random effects model, using Eviews 5.0 software, the paper builds a research model to verify the home market effect among three digits of SITC.7 sector of China and its 25 trade partners during 1999-2009.
Empirical results show that:among three-digit of 17 categories verified, the model estimation of export of three-digit of 15 categories mechanical and electrical products industry is good, model estimation testing achieves expectation to support the existence of home market effects, i.e., home market effect exists.
Finally, from theoretical and empirical level, all the conclusions of this study are summarized, and the corresponding policies are recommended.
但在世界经济复苏势头放缓,贸易保护主义抬头的大背景下,我国机电产品贸易也面临着诸多困难,如国际市场需求增长动力不足、贸易摩擦不断加剧、企业的经营综合成本不断上升等,综合考虑各种因素,我国机电产品贸易要想保持可持续发展,必须改变传统的贸易优势,寻找新的竞争优势来源；本土市场效应能够从成本、贸易壁垒等多个层面来提升我国机电产品的贸易竞争力,是一个值得尝试的新思路。那么,我国机电产品贸易中是否存在本土市场效应?如果存在,应该如何发挥本土市场效应来提升机电产品贸易的竞争力?
为了验证本土市场效应在我国机电贸易中的存在性,本文以我国机电产品SITC.7部门为例对本土市场效应作了较为深入的研究。整篇文章主要从四个方面开展研究：
首先,本文探讨了本土市场效应的理论演进和内涵,通过对其理论基础的分析,梳理了本土市场效应的理论演进路径；在此基础上,从理论内涵和实证应用两个层面对国内外本土市场效应的研究进行了探讨,提出了本文的立足点和出发点。
其次,按照本土市场效应模型构建的核心要素和在不同时期面临的调整,本文尝试从静态和动态两个视角对本土市场效应进行了全方位的分析；认为静态分析在构建理论分析模型中,探寻出本土市场效应功能发挥的关键要素；动态分析探讨了企业性质不同、企业策略性行为、贸易成本不同、贸易主体性质和数量等方面的改变对本土市场效应的影响,重在探讨本土市场效应发展过程中面临的调整；静态功能的发展为动态功能的发挥奠定核心基础,而动态功能是静态功能的延伸和深化,初步实现本十市场效应分析的静态和动态有机融合和互动。
再次,结合我国机电产品贸易的发展历程,以中国机电产品贸易SITC.7部门三位数为例进行实证了分析,本文借鉴引力模型在国际贸易实证研究中的应用方法构建了研究模型,并采用面板数据随机效应模型的估计方法,对中国及其25个贸易伙伴1990-2009年SITC.7部门二位数的贸易数据等资料,使用EViews5.0软件进行了模型估计验证。实证研究结果显示：在所验证的17类三位数中,15类三位数机电产品行业的出口模型估计良好,模型估计检验达到预期,估计结果支持本土市场效应的存在性,或者说本土市场效应存在。
最后,从理论层面和实证层面对本文的研究结论进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议。
Being one of "three carriages" of China's economic growths, foreign trade is extremely important for national economic development; And in the trade, export of mechanical and electrical products is the most important. From the absolute amount and proportion of export, the amount of export of mechanical and electrical products were US$ 549.42 billion, US$549.42 billion, US$821.73 billion and US$1204.53 billion respectively in 2006,2007,2008 and 2009, the proportion of Chinese foreign trade were more than 56.7%,57.5%,57.5%and 54.6% respectively. It can be said the trade of mechanical and electrical products is in a pivotal position in Chinese foreign trade.
However, under the background of slow recovery of world economy and the backdrop of trade protectionism, Chinese trades of mechanical and electrical products also face many difficulties, i.e., the lack of growth momentum of international market demand, the continued heating up of trade friction and the continued rising of integrated enterprise management cost. Considering various factors, in order to maintain sustainable development of Chinese foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products, we must find new sources of competitive advantage to change the traditional trade advantage. Home market effect is a new worthy idea to try because it can improve our foreign trade competitiveness of mechanical and electrical products from the costs, trade barriers and other aspects etc. So, whether our foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products existes the phenomenon of home market effect? If so, how to improve the competitiveness of foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products through the home market effect theory?
In order to verify the existence of home market effect, this paper research it based on SITC.7 factor of Chinese mechanical and electrical products SITC.7. This paper mainly divides into four areas as follows:
First, this paper discusses the content and evolution of home market effect to combine the path of evolution of it through analysis of its theoretical basis. On it, the paper discusses home market effect theory from two levels of theoretical and empirical application, and puts forward a foothold and starting point of this paper.
Second, this paper attempts to analyze a full range of home market effect from both static and dynamic perspective, according to the core elements of home market effect model which was built and the adjustment of it during different period. This paper thinks that static analysis in building a theoretical model can explore key elements which can make the functioning of home market effects. Also, the paper analyzes the home market effects from agricultural sector, heterogeneous, enterprise strategic behavior, trade costs and multinational corporations etc from dynamic perspective, focusing on adjustment which is faced at the development process of home market effect. The paper gets to know that the development of static function plays a core basis for the development of dynamic function, and the dynamic function is extension and deepening for the static function which can achieve integration and interaction for both static perspective and dynamic perspective of home market effects analysis.
Again, combined with the development process of Chinese foreign trade of mechanical and electrical products, the paper analyzes three digits of SITC.7 sector of Chinese mechanical and electrical products trade by empirical way. Reference gravity model's application methods in international trade empirical research way and estimation method of panel data random effects model, using Eviews 5.0 software, the paper builds a research model to verify the home market effect among three digits of SITC.7 sector of China and its 25 trade partners during 1999-2009.
Empirical results show that:among three-digit of 17 categories verified, the model estimation of export of three-digit of 15 categories mechanical and electrical products industry is good, model estimation testing achieves expectation to support the existence of home market effects, i.e., home market effect exists.
Finally, from theoretical and empirical level, all the conclusions of this study are summarized, and the corresponding policies are recommended.
引文
1 Davis and Weinstein,1996; Fujita, Krugman and Venables,1999:Schumacher.2003; Okubo and Rebeyrol,2006.
1盛淼.中国本土市场效应与贸易条件变动的实证分析[D],浙汀大学硕士学位论文,2009
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1参见：Intra-Industry Trade:The Theory and Measurement of Trade in Differentiated Product, New York:John Wiley and Sons,1975。其实,早在1960年沃顿(P. J. Verdoorn)在研究“比荷卢经济同盟”集团内贸易格局变化的研究中首次发现了产业内贸易现象,只是没有“产业内贸易”之说；1963年巴拉萨在对欧共体制成品贸易分析时也发现了此种贸易现象,并于1966年将这种新的贸易现象成为产业内贸易。(王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：p47-55)
2由于本文不是主要研究产业内贸易,故在此不对产业内贸易的内涵和外延进行严格定义。
3在《克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论》(中译本)([美]保罗·克鲁格曼.黄强胜译.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2001.)的“本书概要”中,,克鲁格曼在解释新贸易理论和传统贸易理论的区别做了此论述。
4该文的英文为"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum of Product Diversity",其中文翻译参见：王涵宇宇,邵海军和安虎森译.延边大学学报(社会科学版)2005年第38卷第3期。
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1色诺芬关于分工思想散见于其著作《经济论》、《回忆苏格拉底》和《居鲁士的教育》等中。
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1又称GLIIT,以便与巴拉萨指数(IIT)区分。
2王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：p47-55.他们在书中还指出,必须区分属于同一产业的同质产品和异质产品两种情况。由此引出了后来对水平性产业内贸易(Horizontal IIT)和垂直性产业内贸易(Vertical IIT)(?)的分类。
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4波特在20世纪纪八、九十年代研究“集聚”现象时在《哈弗商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)发表了很多文学。1998年11至12月刊的《哈弗商业评论》中刊载了他的"Clusters and the New Economics of Competition"一文。同时1998年由哈弗商学院出版社(Harvard Business School Press)出版的《竞争论》(On Competition)书中收集了“Clusters and Competition:New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions "、"Competing Across Locations:Enhancing Competitive Advantage Through a Global Strategy"
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1P. Krugman. Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[J]. Aerica Economic Review, 1980, Vol.70, No.5:P950-959.
2主要体现在是我们常说的波特“竞争三部曲”：《竞争战略》、《竞争优势》和《国家竞争优势》
3众所周知,波特是公认的当今全球第一战略权威,被称为“竞争战略之父”。
4王希岩.基于国家竞争优势理论的产业政策观[J].工业技术经济,2008,vol.27(8)：p2-4.
1这一部分主要参考了克鲁格曼1979年、1980年的论文、中译本著作。Paul R. Krugman. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade[J]. Journal of International Economies,1979(9):P469-479. Paul Krugman. Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[J]. The American Economic Review,1980, Vol.70, No.5:p750-759.(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.黄胜强译.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2001.
2关于新经济地理学(New Economic Geography, NEG)克鲁格曼有专著论述：P. Krugman. Development, geography and economic theory [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press.1995.中译本：(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.蔡荣译.发展,地理学与经济理论[M].北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学出版社,2000.
3克鲁格曼的“中心-外国”模型(Core-periphery model)中明显包含着本上市场效应模型的影子。
4关于本土市场效应的综述参见钱学锋,梁琦.本地市场效应：理论和经验研究的新近进展[J].经济学(季刊),2007,6(3)：969-990.
1读者可以参阅这两位优秀的犹太经济学家的合著《市场结构和对外贸易》。E. Helpman, P. Krugman. Market Structure and Foreign Trade [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,1985.
1Krugman, P.,"Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade",America E-conomic Review, 1980,70(5),950-959.
1参见钱学锋,梁琦.本地市场效应：理论和经验研究的新近进展[J].经济学(季刊),2007,6(3)：969-990.
1参见：毛译东.毛译东选集(第一卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,2003.
2即,萨伊定律(Say's Law)。
1马克思,恩格斯.中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.马克思恩格斯选集[M].北京：人民出版社,1972.
2(美)迈克尔·波特.高等第等译.竞争论[M].北京：中信出版社,2003.
1亚洲金融风暴(Asian Financial Crisis):1997年7月2日,亚洲金融风暴席卷泰国,泰铢贬值。不久,这场风暴扫过了马来西亚、新加坡、日本和韩国等地。打破了亚洲经济急速发展的景象。亚洲一些经济大国的经济开始萧条,一些国家的政局也开始混乱。
2美国“次贷危机”是从2006年春季开始逐步显现的。2007年8月开始席卷美国,至2008年下半年引发全球性金融和经济危机,至今此次危机影响犹在。
31999年中国共产党第十五届四中全会和中央经济工作会议正式提出了实施西部大开发战略。
42008年11月5日,中国国务院总理温家宝主持召开国务院常务会议,研究部署进一步扩大内需促进经济平稳较快增长的措施。会上提出了“扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施”。实施此十项措施,到2010年底约需要投资4万亿元人民币。http://biz.xinmin.cn/chanjing/2008/11/10/1425028.html
5韩克勇.中国居民消费问题研究[J].经济评论,2001(1)：p54-56.
6本部分内容主要参考金碚的论文：金碚.中国的新世纪战略：从工业大国走向工业强国[J].中国工业经济,2000(5)：p27-34.
1朱宝全.中国机电产品出口贸易的现状及可持续发展[J].甘肃农业，2006,vol237,(4)：p196.
2朱宝全.中国机电产品出口贸易的现状及可持续发展[J].甘肃农业,2006,vol237,(4)：p196.
32001年日本通产省发表的白皮书第一次提到中国已经成为“世界工厂”。载于：蔡恩泽.中国：“世界上厂”渐行渐远[J].中国外资,2010(7)：p20-22.
4佚名.中国工业生产总值首次超过日本位居世界第二[J].金属加工,2010(7)：p6.
1佚名.中国机电产品出口增速现20年来首负[J].中国新通信,2009：p67.
1又称对外贸易指数
2西蒙·库兹茨.戴睿,易诚译.现代经济增长[M].北京：北京经济学院出版社,1989.
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1中国人大网.新中国60年：全方位开放格局形成贸易大国地位趋稳.2010年1月27日.
1也被称为引力模型(Gravity Model)。
2 JE. Anderson. Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation [J]. American Economic Review,1979.69.
3史朝兴等人写过一篇很好的文献：史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的利论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
4 P. D. Converse. New Laws of Retail Gravitation [J]. Journal of Marketing, Vol.14, January,379-384.
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2中译本：(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.发展、地理学与经济理论[M].北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学才版社,2000：p44-48.
3史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的理论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
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1 R. Feenstra, A. Rose, J. Markusen. Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade [J]. Canadican Journal of Economics,2001, Vol.34(2):P430-447转载自：苏晶晶,李慧中.中国出口行业的“本土市场效应”研究---基于引力模型的实证检验[J].中国外资,2010,vol.213：p7-8.
2史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的理论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
1谷克鉴.国际经济学对引力模型的开发与应用[J].世界经济,2001(2).
2盛斌,廖明中.中国的贸易流量与出口潜力：引力模型的研究[J].世界经济,2004(2).
3林玲,工炎.贸易引力模型对中国双边贸易的实证检验和政策含义[J].世界经济研究,2004(7)：p54-58.
4王铠磊.国际贸易流量的影响因素---基于贸易引力模型和中国数据的实证分析[J].世界经济情况,2007(12).
5吴丹.制度因素与东亚双边贸易：贸易引力模型的执政分析[J].经济经纬,2008(3)：P47-49.吴丹.东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力：基于贸易引力模型的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2008(5)：p32-36.
6苏晶晶,李慧中.中国出口行业的“本上市场效应”研究---基于引引力末型的实证检验[J].中国外资，2010,vol.213(6)：p7-8.
1鉴于数据整理工作量很大,本文不再单独附表。
2此类数据又称为面板数据(Panel Data)
3易丹辉.数据分析与 EViews应用[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2008,p296.
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1盛淼.中国本土市场效应与贸易条件变动的实证分析[D],浙汀大学硕士学位论文,2009
1赵伟.国际贸易理论政策与现实问题[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2004：92-105
2杨小凯,张永生.新贸易理论、比较利益理论及其经验研究的新成果：文献综述[J].经济学季刊2001,Vol.1,No.1,PP.19-44.
3海闻,P.林德特,王新奎.国际贸易[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2003：p126.
1参见：Intra-Industry Trade:The Theory and Measurement of Trade in Differentiated Product, New York:John Wiley and Sons,1975。其实,早在1960年沃顿(P. J. Verdoorn)在研究“比荷卢经济同盟”集团内贸易格局变化的研究中首次发现了产业内贸易现象,只是没有“产业内贸易”之说；1963年巴拉萨在对欧共体制成品贸易分析时也发现了此种贸易现象,并于1966年将这种新的贸易现象成为产业内贸易。(王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：p47-55)
2由于本文不是主要研究产业内贸易,故在此不对产业内贸易的内涵和外延进行严格定义。
3在《克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论》(中译本)([美]保罗·克鲁格曼.黄强胜译.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2001.)的“本书概要”中,,克鲁格曼在解释新贸易理论和传统贸易理论的区别做了此论述。
4该文的英文为"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum of Product Diversity",其中文翻译参见：王涵宇宇,邵海军和安虎森译.延边大学学报(社会科学版)2005年第38卷第3期。
5杨小凯,张永生.新贸易理论、比较利益理论及其经验研究的新成果：义献综述[J].经济学季刊2001,1(1)：19-44.
1色诺芬关于分工思想散见于其著作《经济论》、《回忆苏格拉底》和《居鲁士的教育》等中。
2苗长青.分工理论综述[J].全国商情.经济理论研究，2008(1)：p121-122.
3中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.资本论(1-3卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,2004.
4马歇尔.经济学原理[M].北京：华夏出版社,2005.
5阿林·杨格.贾根良译.报酬递增与经济进步[J].经济社会体制比较,1996(2)：p52-57.
1(美)奥利佛·E.威廉姆森,西德尼·G.温特.姚海鑫译.企业的性质[M].北京：商务印书馆,2010.
2(澳)杨小凯,黄有光.专业化与经济组织---一种新兴古典微观经济学框架[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999.
1高鸿业.西方经济学(微观部分)第四版[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007.
1参见中文版：(美)张们伦.周文译.垄断竞争理论[M].北京：华夏出版社,2009.面关于《不完全竞争经济学》商务印书馆翻译1961年第一次印刷,1964年第二次印刷。目前,澳大利业的杰弗里·哈考特和¨科尔合著的并由苏军翻译的关于罗宾逊夫人的传记性的著作《琼·罗寅逊》(Joan Robinson)已十2011年1月由华夏出版社出版。该著作的第一篇便宾《不完全竞争经济学》。
2海闻,P.林德特,王新奎.国际贸易[M].上海：上海人民山版社,2003：p133-134.
3海闻,P.林德特,王新奎.国际贸易[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2003：p137-138.
1该模型义称新张伯伦模型(Neo-Chamberlin Models).参看：E. Helpman, P. Krugman. Market Structure and Foreign Trade:Increasing Return, imperfect competition and the international Economy. MIT Press, Cambridge. Mass. ChapterⅥ.1985.
1J.Brander. P.R. Krugman. A Reciprocal Dumping Model of International Trade [J].Journal of international trade. 1983. Vol15:313-321.
1本部分内容参考了迪克西特和斯蒂格利茨的原文及其中文译文等文献：Avinash K. Dixit, Joseph E. Stiglitz. Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity [J]. The American Economic Review, June 1977. Vol.67, NO.3.中文翻译：王涵宇,邵海军,安虎森.垄断竞争和最优的产品多样化[J].延边大学学报(社会科学版),2005,9,Vol.38(3)：p42-50.博士论文：殷广卫.新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制研究—兼论近十多年我国区域经济差异的成因[D].天津：南开大学研究生院,2009.中山大学岭南学院孙洛平教授产业组织理论讲义。
1又称为理想品种／核心特性模型(the core property or ideal variety model),主要采用霍特林-兰卡斯特分析法(The Hotelling-Lancaster approach)。可参阅：K. Lancaster. Intra-Industry Trade under Perfect Monopolistic Competition[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1980(10):P151-176.程大中.保罗·克鲁格曼与新贸易理论[J].世界经济情况,2008(10)：p9-12.
2R.E. Falvey. Commercial Policy and Intra-Industry Trade [J]. Journal of International Economics,1981,Vol(11): 495-511
3R.E. Falvey, H. Kieizkowski. Product Quality, Intra-industry Trade and Imperfect competition, in edited by H. Kieizkowski, Protection and competition in international Trade:Essays in honour of W. M. Gorden. Oxford:Basil blackwell,1987
4A. Shaked, J. Sutton. Natural Oligopolies and international Trade in edited by H. Kieizkowski, Monopolistic competition and International Trade. Oxford:Oxford University Press.1984.34-50.
5B. Balassa. Trade-creation Trade-diversion in the European Common Market. The paper of Manchester School, 1974.Vol.2.d
1又称GLIIT,以便与巴拉萨指数(IIT)区分。
2王云飞.我国与主要贸易伙伴产业内贸易的相关性分析[J].世界经济研究,2005(10)：p47-55.他们在书中还指出,必须区分属于同一产业的同质产品和异质产品两种情况。由此引出了后来对水平性产业内贸易(Horizontal IIT)和垂直性产业内贸易(Vertical IIT)(?)的分类。
1Antonio. Aquino. Intra-industry trade and Inter-industry Specialization as Concurrent Sources of International Trade in Manufactures. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiw,1978.Vol.14 (2).
1Jeffrey H. Bergstrand. The Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson Model. The Linder Hypothesis and the Determinants of Bilateral Intra-Industry Trade [J]. Economic Journal. December.1990. Vol.100:pp1216-1229.
2D. Greenaway, R. Hine, and C. Milner. Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade:A Cross Industry Analysis for the United Kingdom [J]. Economic Journal, November,1995, Vol.105:pp 1505-1518.
1 Raymond Vernon. International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.80, No.2:p 190-207.
2赵春明.国际贸易(第三版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.
3迈克尔·波特.李明轩,邱如美译.国家竞争优势[M].北京：中信出版社,2007.
4波特在20世纪纪八、九十年代研究“集聚”现象时在《哈弗商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)发表了很多文学。1998年11至12月刊的《哈弗商业评论》中刊载了他的"Clusters and the New Economics of Competition"一文。同时1998年由哈弗商学院出版社(Harvard Business School Press)出版的《竞争论》(On Competition)书中收集了“Clusters and Competition:New Agendas for Companies, Governments, and Institutions "、"Competing Across Locations:Enhancing Competitive Advantage Through a Global Strategy"
5迈克尔·波特.李明轩,邱如美译.国家竞争优势[M].北京：中信出版社,2007.
1P. Krugman. Scale Economies. Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[J]. The American Economic Review,1980, Vol.70, No.5:P950-959.
2赵春明.国际贸易(第二版)[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2007.
1P. Krugman. Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[J]. Aerica Economic Review, 1980, Vol.70, No.5:P950-959.
2主要体现在是我们常说的波特“竞争三部曲”：《竞争战略》、《竞争优势》和《国家竞争优势》
3众所周知,波特是公认的当今全球第一战略权威,被称为“竞争战略之父”。
4王希岩.基于国家竞争优势理论的产业政策观[J].工业技术经济,2008,vol.27(8)：p2-4.
1这一部分主要参考了克鲁格曼1979年、1980年的论文、中译本著作。Paul R. Krugman. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade[J]. Journal of International Economies,1979(9):P469-479. Paul Krugman. Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade[J]. The American Economic Review,1980, Vol.70, No.5:p750-759.(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.黄胜强译.克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,2001.
2关于新经济地理学(New Economic Geography, NEG)克鲁格曼有专著论述：P. Krugman. Development, geography and economic theory [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press.1995.中译本：(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.蔡荣译.发展,地理学与经济理论[M].北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学出版社,2000.
3克鲁格曼的“中心-外国”模型(Core-periphery model)中明显包含着本上市场效应模型的影子。
4关于本土市场效应的综述参见钱学锋,梁琦.本地市场效应：理论和经验研究的新近进展[J].经济学(季刊),2007,6(3)：969-990.
1读者可以参阅这两位优秀的犹太经济学家的合著《市场结构和对外贸易》。E. Helpman, P. Krugman. Market Structure and Foreign Trade [M]. Cambridge:MIT Press,1985.
1Krugman, P.,"Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade",America E-conomic Review, 1980,70(5),950-959.
1参见钱学锋,梁琦.本地市场效应：理论和经验研究的新近进展[J].经济学(季刊),2007,6(3)：969-990.
1参见：毛译东.毛译东选集(第一卷)[M].北京：人民出版社,2003.
2即,萨伊定律(Say's Law)。
1马克思,恩格斯.中共中央马克思恩格斯列宁斯大林著作编译局译.马克思恩格斯选集[M].北京：人民出版社,1972.
2(美)迈克尔·波特.高等第等译.竞争论[M].北京：中信出版社,2003.
1亚洲金融风暴(Asian Financial Crisis):1997年7月2日,亚洲金融风暴席卷泰国,泰铢贬值。不久,这场风暴扫过了马来西亚、新加坡、日本和韩国等地。打破了亚洲经济急速发展的景象。亚洲一些经济大国的经济开始萧条,一些国家的政局也开始混乱。
2美国“次贷危机”是从2006年春季开始逐步显现的。2007年8月开始席卷美国,至2008年下半年引发全球性金融和经济危机,至今此次危机影响犹在。
31999年中国共产党第十五届四中全会和中央经济工作会议正式提出了实施西部大开发战略。
42008年11月5日,中国国务院总理温家宝主持召开国务院常务会议,研究部署进一步扩大内需促进经济平稳较快增长的措施。会上提出了“扩大内需、促进经济增长的十项措施”。实施此十项措施,到2010年底约需要投资4万亿元人民币。http://biz.xinmin.cn/chanjing/2008/11/10/1425028.html
5韩克勇.中国居民消费问题研究[J].经济评论,2001(1)：p54-56.
6本部分内容主要参考金碚的论文：金碚.中国的新世纪战略：从工业大国走向工业强国[J].中国工业经济,2000(5)：p27-34.
1朱宝全.中国机电产品出口贸易的现状及可持续发展[J].甘肃农业，2006,vol237,(4)：p196.
2朱宝全.中国机电产品出口贸易的现状及可持续发展[J].甘肃农业,2006,vol237,(4)：p196.
32001年日本通产省发表的白皮书第一次提到中国已经成为“世界工厂”。载于：蔡恩泽.中国：“世界上厂”渐行渐远[J].中国外资,2010(7)：p20-22.
4佚名.中国工业生产总值首次超过日本位居世界第二[J].金属加工,2010(7)：p6.
1佚名.中国机电产品出口增速现20年来首负[J].中国新通信,2009：p67.
1又称对外贸易指数
2西蒙·库兹茨.戴睿,易诚译.现代经济增长[M].北京：北京经济学院出版社,1989.
3(美)钱纳里,(以)塞尔昆.李新华等译.发展的型式：1950-1970[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1988
1中国人大网.新中国60年：全方位开放格局形成贸易大国地位趋稳.2010年1月27日.
1也被称为引力模型(Gravity Model)。
2 JE. Anderson. Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation [J]. American Economic Review,1979.69.
3史朝兴等人写过一篇很好的文献：史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的利论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
4 P. D. Converse. New Laws of Retail Gravitation [J]. Journal of Marketing, Vol.14, January,379-384.
1参见：(美)艾萨德.区域科学导论[M].北京：高等教育出版社,1991.W. Isard. Location and Space Economy [M]. Cambridge:the MIT Press,1956. W. Isard. Methods of regional science [M]. Cambridge:the MIT Press,1965.
2中译本：(美)保罗·克鲁格曼.发展、地理学与经济理论[M].北京：北京大学出版社,中国人民大学才版社,2000：p44-48.
3史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的理论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
4J. Tinbergen. Shaping the world Economy, Appendix Ⅵ, "An Analysis of World Trade Flows" [M]. New York: the Twentieth Century Fund,1962.
5 P. Poyhonen. A Tentative Model of the Volume of Trade between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv. Band 90,1963:p93-99.
6 Hans Linnemann. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows [M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company,1966.
1 R. Feenstra, A. Rose, J. Markusen. Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade [J]. Canadican Journal of Economics,2001, Vol.34(2):P430-447转载自：苏晶晶,李慧中.中国出口行业的“本土市场效应”研究---基于引力模型的实证检验[J].中国外资,2010,vol.213：p7-8.
2史朝兴,顾海英,秦向东.引力模型在国际贸易中应用的理论基础研究综述[M].南开经济研究,2005(2)：p39-44.
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