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中国可再生能源电价规制政策研究
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摘要
中国各种可再生能源的蕴藏量丰富,但存在地区分布不均的情况。近些年来中国的可再生能源产业取得了迅猛的发展,包括风电、太阳能发电、生物质能发电等在内的可再生能源的发电量已经位于世界前列。这与中国对可再生能源产业的支持政策是密不可分的,中国的可再生能源电价规制政策已经对可再生能源的发展起了重要的促进作用。通过本文的实证分析可以得出,中国可再生能源的发展在很大程度上依赖于相关电价规制政策。
     目前可再生能能源问题越来越受到人们的广泛关注,相应的可再生能源规制政策也日益受到重视。但当前中国的可再生能源的相关的规制政策还明显落后于欧美等发达国家。中国还是主要在借鉴和学习国外先进的规制政策,对于适合本国国情的可再生能源规制政策尤其是价格规制政策的相关研究的文献还很少。为了促进中国可再生能源的发展并且保障能源安全,中国应该对目前的规制政策进行理论和实践的分析,在此基础上对各种主要的价格规制政策进行对比,研究每种政策的优缺点、政策的可行性、政策的适用性、政策的绩效等相关内容。并区别不同的可再生能源发电技术类型,结合中国不同技术类型的可再生能源的实际发展状况并参考国外先进的经验,制定适合中国的具有针对性的可再生能源电价规制政策。
     可再生能源大规模开发和利用的重点是技术的进步,促进可再生能源发展的关键是上网电价的确定问题。可再生能源发电产业处于产业发展初期,由于可再生能源的成本高于传统常规能源的成本,可再生能源不能和常规能源之间直接竞价。不同技术种类的可再生能源之间同样也有区别,需要对电价进行规制以保证和促进不同种类的可再生能源的生存和发展。另外可再生能源发电产业具有的正外部性和自然垄断性等特点,使得各种技术类型的可再生能源产业的上网电价比传统常规能源的上网电价要高。为促进可再生能源的快速发展,也需要政府相关机构对可再生能源发电产业进行价格规制。目前国际上主要的规制方法有固定电价政策、竞价上网政策以及可交易绿色证书政策等。中国目前更多的是采用固定电价政策和竞价上网政策,已经开始初步实行配额制,采用可交易绿色证书政策是电价规制政策的发展趋势。本文同时结合生产者剩余与消费者剩余或者公众福利对各种价格规制政策进行了分析。并分析了各政策在欧美等发达国家的实践经验,从静态效率和动态效率两种角度比较了三种规制政策。对于中国来说不存在最理想和最完美的电价规制政策,不同技术类型的可再生能源处于不同的发展阶段,政策的目标以及衡量政策效果等指标的选择等因素都会影响相应具体政策的选择。在特定情况下,还需要综合运用多种可再生能源电价规制政策。
     本文的主要内容是:
     第一章是导论。主要研究中国可再生能源发电产业的内涵、特征与必要性,接着分析了中国可再生能源发电产业的现状与发展目标。在此基础上,提出了本文的切入点、研究内容、研究框架和主要创新。
     第二章是中国可再生能源电价规制政策的文献综述和理论基础。本章首先对中国可再生能源电价规制政策的国内外相关理论文献进行了回顾和评述,然后主要从可再生能源的正外部性和可再生能源发电产业存在自然垄断性的角度,分析了可再生能源电价规制的理论基础。
     第三章是中国可再生能源现行电价规制政策评价。本章首先对中国可再生能源电价规制政策的总体绩效进行了分析,概述了中国可再生能源的电价规制政策的发展。其次以风电为例,对可再生能源电价规制政策绩效进行了实证分析,可以得出中国的可再生能源电价规制政策与风能的发展之间有正相关关系,并且可再生能源的电价规制政策对风能发电的增长影响很大。
     第四章对主要可再生能源电价规制政策进行分析。本章对可再生能源的固定电价政策理论、竞价上网政策和可交易绿色证书政策进行了具体的分析。并且对三种电价规制政策的涵义和实质进行了分析,探讨了每种电价规制政策的理论基础,分析了各种电价规制政策对资源配置的影响,考察了每种电价规制政策的优缺点。分析了可再生能源的固定电价政策和竞价上网政策在中国的实践,探讨了可交易绿色证书政策在中国的适用性等问题。
     第五章是可再生能源电价规制政策的比较及中国的适用性分析。本章分析了欧美等典型国家可再生能源电价规制政策具体采用情况,并总结了欧美等国家电价规制政策的基本成功经验。本章还从从静态和动态效率角度比较三种电价规制政策。政策目标不同、政治环境不同决定了一种政策比其他政策要好。规制者在选择具体电价规制政策的时候,要面临是支持可再生能源电力产业的快速发展以及技术进步,还是提高公众的社会福利水平的两难选择。
     第六章是若干政策建议。提出进一步为了促进中国可再生能源的发展,主要从以下几个方面努力:完善可再生能源电价规制政策;理顺可再生能源电价规制机构;构建可再生能源电价规制政策有效性的评价体系;综合运用各种可再生能源电价规制政策;强化可再生能源的技术创新的激励政策。
     第七章是结论。总结了三种可再生能源电价规制政策在静态和动态效率方面的特点。提出目前中国还应以固定电价政策和竞价上网政策为主,在各种条件具备的情况下,再适时引入可交易绿色证书政策。
     本文的主要创新是:
     1.论证了固定电价政策和竞价上网政策的实质是价格补贴机制。固定电价政策和补贴政策极为相似。通过实行固定电价政策,可再生能源电力生产者提供的每单位的可再生能源电力,都会得到额外支付,即获得补贴。同固定电价政策被补贴的方式一样,竞价上网政策实际上也被资助的,也可以通过税收的等方式给予支持。所以这两种电价规制政策实质上都是对可再生能源电力产业的补贴。
     2.分析了可交易绿色证书政策中隐含的能源电力市场和绿色证书市场及两者关系。这两种类型的市场分别是常规能源电力市场和绿色证书交易市场。可再生能源电力企业与普通能源发电同样销售电力,可再生能源电力企业与普通能源电力企业一样,同电力公司签订购电协议,确定上网电价等有关事宜。在绿色证书的市场上,可再生能源电力企业在证书市场上销售绿色证书,同时电力企业和电力消费者间也可以进行绿色证书的交易。绿色证书市场模式实现的前提是将可再生能源电力商品的使用价值部分转移到绿色证书上。而具有使用价值的前提是基于政府权威部门赋予证书的信用价值,这样可再生能源电力的交易就会转为绿色证书的交易。
     3.运用计量经济模型对可再生能源电价规制政策与其绩效之间的关系作了定量分析。本文采用了以风电为例的省级面板数据进行回归分析。前人的研究尤其是国内学者主要注重介绍一种或几种可再生能源电价规制政策的概念和基本理论。对于中国已经实行了的电价规制政策的具体实施效果如何,则基本上没有相关的研究。如果对一项政策的绩效不做详细的评估,对规制政策与政策绩效之间的关系不做分析,实际上会阻碍该项政策的具体实施和对所存在的问题进行及时修正。本文将回归分析的方法引入了对电价规制政策绩效的评估中,得出了中国的可再生能源电价规制政策与风能的发展之间正相关关系,并且可再生能源的电价规制政策对风能发电的增长影响很大的结论。
     4.从静态效率和动态效率的角度对固定电价政策、竞价上网政策和可交易绿色证书政策进行了的比较分析。本文采用促进价格和成本最小化等多种静态效率指标,对三种电价规制政策进行了比较分析,详细对比了各种政策的不同指标的具体效果和优缺点。提出不同的电价规制政策对以技术进步为代表的动态效率的提高的促进作用也不同。一方面为了促进有风险的发电技术的研发和投资,另一方面为了通过激励手段降低总成本,就必须给予可再生能源电力的生产者和设备的制造者一定的技术进步的租金。而原有租金和技术进步的租金二者之间的微妙关系,有可能因为不同的电价规制政策而被破坏。
Chinese renewable energies reserve richly, but distribution unevenly. In recent years, Chinese renewable energy industries have developed quickly. Renewable energy generation capacity including wind power, solar power, biomass power generation,has been located in the forefront of the world, that is inseparable with renewable energy industry support policies, Chinese renewable energy price-regulation policies had mainly effect on renewable energy development. Through method of the empirical analysis, we can know that the development of Chinese renewable energy largely depends how to make and implement relative price-regulation policies.
     At present the people more and more concern about the problems of renewable energy and the corresponding renewable energy regulatory policy also is valued. But now the making and implementation of Chinese renewable energy related regulation policies fallbehind Europe and the United States and other developed countries. We are learning the foreign adbance regulatory policies, the research of renewable energy regulatory policies epecially price controls policies for our own country are not many. In order to promote the development of Chinese renewable energy and safeguard energy security, we should first analysis the main price-regulation polcies theoretically and practically, and then comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each policy, and the feasibility of the applicability of the policy, the policy performance and other related content. We should know about the difference between different renewable energy technologies, and make our Chinese renewable energy price-regulatory policies more suitable, on the basis of learning to the different types of technology type of renewable energy and learning about the foreign advanced experience.
     Technical progress is very important for the large-scale development and utilization of the renewable energy. Pricing problem is the key to promoting renewable energy development. It can also be said that renewable energy price regulation is essentially a typical price-regulation problem. Renewable energy power generation industry is in the initial stage of the industry. Because the cost of the renewable energy cost is more than the one of conventional energy, renewable energy and conventional energy can not compete with each other directly. There are difference between different types of technology, so the price regulation is necessary for the survival and development of different types of renewable energy technology. Renewable energy tariff regulation is essentially a typical price control problem. And renewable energy power generation industry has the character of positive externality, that makes the price of a variety of technical types of renewable energy industry electricity is higher than the one of conventional energy electricity price. In order to promote the rapid development of renewable energy, the government agencies regulate the price of renewable energy power generation industry is necessary. The main regulatory method internationly is feed-in tariffs policy, bidding policy and tradable green certificates policy and so on. In China we mainly use feed-in tariffs and bidding, quotas is just beginning, and the tradable green certificates Policy is the developing trend. In this paper, combinding with the producer surplus and consumer surplus or welfare of the public, we analyze the price-regulation policies. And we analyze the experience of the developed countries such as Europe and America. From the aspects of the static efficiency and dynamic efficiency, the paper compare with three kinds of regulatory policies. There is no the best and most perfect price-regulation policy for China, a lot of factors such as different types of renewable energy at different stages of development, policy target and the measure index selection of policy effect and so on, will all influence the corresponding the choices of the specific policy. In certain circumstances, it also needs to make comprehensive use of a variety of renewable energy price-regulation policies.
     The main contents of this paper are:
     The first chapter is introduction. We discuss the component, characteristics and necessity of Chinese renewable energy industry, and then analyze present situation and development target of the Chinese renewable energy industry. Based on these, we put forward the cut-in point, main contents, research framework and main innovations.
     The second chapter is literature review and theoretical basis of Chinese renewable energy price-regulation policy. First we review and comment the domestic and foreign references of price-regulation policy, then research the theoretical basis of renewable energy price-regulation mainly from the viewpoint of renewable energy positive externalities and natural monopoly.
     The third chapter is evaluating active price-regulation policy of Chinese renewable energy. First we analyze the overall Chinese performance of price-regulation policy. And put an overview of the development of Chinese renewable energy price-regulation policy. Then we analyze empirically the performance of renewable energy price-regulation policy in case of wind power. We can come to conclusion that there is positive correlatory relation between renewable energy price-regulation policy and the development of wind power, and renewable energy price-regulation policy has influence on the growth of wind power growth.
     The fourth chapter is analysis of the main renewable energy price-regulation policies. We analyze the feed-in tariffs, bidding policy and tradable green certificates policy of renewable energy concretely. And we discuss the meaning and essence of the three, then discuss theoretical basis of each price-regulation policy, analyse the impact on resource allocation, examine the adbantages and disadvantages of the three. We analyze the practice of feed-in tariffs and bidding policy practice in China, discusses the applicability problems of tradable green certificates Policy in China.
     The fifth chapter is comparison and applicability of the renewable energy price-regulation policy in China. We provide a survey of the policial practice of typical countries such as European and American countries, and summarize the successful experiences of Europe and the United States and other countries. Then the paper compare with the three kinds of price-regulation policy from static and dynamic efficiency. Policy goal and political environment is different, that has decided on a policy is better than the others. When regulators are in the choice of price regulation policy, they are in the lilemma that whether to support the rapid development and technical progress of renewable energy power industryt, or to improve public social welfare.
     The sixth chapter is some policy suggestions. This paper summarizes the main point of view, put forward to promote the development of renewable energy in China, mainly from the following several aspects:to improve renewable electricity price-regulation policies; to improve renewable energy power price-regulation angencies; to build effectiveness evaluation system of renewable energy price-regulation policy; to combine the different renewable electricity price-regulation policies; strengthen incentive policy of the renewable energy technology innovation.
     The seventh chapter is the conclusion. This chapter summarizes characteristics of three kinds of renewable energy price-regulation policies in static and dynamic efficiency. At present China should take the feed-in tariffs policy and bidding policy, and introduce tradable green certificate policy in certain conditions.
     The main innovations of the paper are:
     1. The paper has proved that feed-in tariffs and bidding policy are all subsidy mechanisms in essence. Feed-in tariff is very similar to allowance policy. Through the introduction of feed-in tariff, renewable power producers will receive additional payment, i.e. subsidies on each of the units of the renewable energy power. Bidding policy actually is funded by taxes too, or by other means to support. So these two kinds of price-regulation policy is essentially subsidies to the renewable power industry.
     2. The paper explicitly proposes that in tradable green certificates Policy the transaction market of renewable energy power essentially consists of two types of market. The two types of market are the conventional energy power market and green certificates trading market. Renewable energy power enterprises and the common energy power company are all sales the power. They all sign a power purchase agreement with Power Company; determine the online price and other related matters. In the green certificates market, renewable energy company sale certificates, at the same time, the power enterprises and power consumers can also be trading the green certificates. The pemise of making Green certificates market model come true is the value of the renewable energy to power is partially transferred to the green certificates。And the value is based on the premise that government authorites grante certificates credit value, so transactions of the renewable energy power will turn to green certificates trading.
     3. The paper analyzes quantitatively the relationship between renewable energy price-regulation policy and its performance wth econometric model. This paper uses the case provincial panel data of wind power in regression analysis. The former research especially the domestic scholars mainly focus on concept and basic theory of one or several renewable energy price-regulation policies. There is little relevant research on implementation effect of price-regulation policy. If we do not assess the policy performance detailly, and do not analyze the relationship between the policy and performance, that will actually hinder the policy implementation and correction of the existing problems. In this paper, the regression analysis method is introduced to performance assessment of price-regulation policy. We reached the conclusion that there is positive correlation between Chinese renewable energy regulation-regulation policy and wind energy development, and wind power growth is greatly affected by renewable energy price-regulation policy.
     4. The paper compares feed-in tariffs, the bidding and tradable green certificates policy from the perspective of static and dynamic efficiency. This paper uses some static efficiency indexs such as price and cost minimization and others. We carry on the comparative analysis of on three kinds of price-regulationl policy, a detailed the chapter compare specific effect, advantages and disadvantages of different indicators. We put forward different price-regulation policy hase different effect on technological progress as the representative of the dynamic efficiency. On the one hand in order to promote research and investment of power technology, on the other hand in order to reduce total costs through the mean of incentive, it must give certain technical progress rent to renewable power producers and equipment manufacturers. While the relationship between the original rent and technical progress rent may be destroyed by different price-regulation policy.
引文
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