基于多Agent系统的供应链可靠性管理模型研究
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摘要
“未来的竞争不再是企业与企业之间的竞争,而是供应链之间的竞争”。许多企业广泛实施JIT生产方式、采购全球化理念以及精敏供应链管理,使得供应链日常运营日益高效,但也使得企业抵抗干扰事件风险的能力减弱。供应链上任何环节的干扰事件,都可能导致整个承受能力有限的供应链中断甚至崩溃。
本文基于系统工程、多Agent系统(MAS)以及可靠性工程理论,从供应链一体化运作管理的角度出发,应用运筹学、智能算法和优化理论的相关方法,对供应链可靠性管理进行了深入地探讨,具体研究内容如下：
(1)供应链可靠性设计研究。基于本体和MAS,构建了一种集成多种智能算法的供应链可靠性设计模型。服务本体实现成员企业的服务发布与发现,工作流本体实现订单任务的动态分解。分别通过BP神经网络预测供应链目标可靠度,通过模糊逻辑评估各个投标企业可靠度,通过多目标遗传算法求得最佳中标企业,实现可靠供应链的最优设计。
(2)供应链可靠性预警研究。分析了供应链可靠性预警系统功能及运作流程等,在归纳和分析各类预警方法基础上,构造了基于不同视角的供应链可靠性分层预警体系架构。着重构建了基于MAS的供应链可靠性综合预警模型,由下往上依次对节点企业、子系统以及系统进行可靠性预警。节点Agent利用遗传投影寻踪法得到各节点可靠性预警等级,子系统Agent利用特征值赋权法得到各个环节与各条子链可靠性预警等级,系统Agent负责供应链整体可靠性预警。
(3)供应链可靠性改进研究。提出生产依赖度和生产相关度概念,通过网络分析法计算供应链运作可靠度。通过成员重要度分析找到需要进行冗余设计的供应链特定环节,如果存在多个投标企业,根据风险指标和风险指标变化率,通过模糊逻辑推理计算各类风险的发生概率,结合投标企业风险应对能力信息,选取最优冗余企业。并且融合反应式和慎思式的典型结构,设计了一类混合结构的改进Agent,以实现供应链可靠性改进。
(4)成员企业可靠性监管研究。构建了基于MAS的成员企业可靠性监管系统。为了激励成员企业提高运行效率,改善服务可靠性。提出了一套基于标尺竞争的结合价格和服务可靠性监管的成员企业激励性监管模式与方法。对价格监管采用价格上限管制方式,服务可靠性监管从供应可靠度和产品合格率两个方面进行控制。采用数据包络分析方法建立了相应的监管数学模型。
The competence is not among businesses but among supply chains in 21th century. To gain cost advantage and market share, many companies implement various initiatives such as source goods globally and leanagile supply chain management. These initiatives are effective in a stable environment, but they could make a supply chain more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. The failure which occurs at any node or link of supply network affects rapidly all companies in the web, and then, influences the normal operations of the whole network.
Based on application of operational research, intelligent algorithm and optimization theory, this dissertation researches supply chain reliability management, in light of systems engineering, reliability engineering, multi-agent system(MAS) and distribution chain integrative operation management. The concrete research is as follows:
(1)Study on reliability design of supply chain. A reliable supply chain network design model based on ontology and multi-agent technology is proposed, which integrated a variety of calculating methods. Service publication and discovery of the member enterprises are realized by the service ontology, the order task is dynamically decomposed by the workflow ontology. The prediction of supply chain target reliability is carried out with BP neural network, the bidding enterprise's reliability is evaluated by using fuzzy logic method, the multi-objective genetic algorithm is applied to solve this multi-objective optimization problem to obtain the successful tender, the reliable supply chain is designed optimally.
(2)Study on reliability early warning of supply chain. The function and operating process of supply chain reliability early warning system is analyzed. Based on the induction and analysis of various early warning methods, an infrastructure of supply chain reliability early warning system is built from two different views. A MAS-based reliability comprehensive early warning model in supply chain is put forward. The node enterprise agents employ the genetic projection pursuit method to predict the reliability of each enterprise. The subsystem agents get the weights of the enterprises' reliability by the eigenvalue weighted method, and then the reliability evaluation result of each subchain and each echelon are acquired by the weight. At the top layer, the system agent is responsible for predicting the whole reliability of supply chain.
(3)Study on reliability improvement of supply chain. The production dependencies and the degree of production dependence in supply chain are defined, and the algorithm of operation reliability of supply chain based on the network analytical method is put forward. The echelon needed for redundant design is found through analysis of the component importance. If there are several tender companies, fuzzy reasoning is used to obtain the risk probability from the risk index and its trend. The optimal company is chosen in combination with risk comprehensive response capacity of these companies. In order to realize reliability improvement of supply chain, a hybrid agent is designed which merged the reactive agent with the deliberative agent
(4)Study on reliability regulation of member enterprises. The model of member enterprises reliability regulation based on MAS is constructed. In order to inspirit the member enterprises to improve the operating efficiency and service reliability, an incentive regulation model and approach based on yardstick competition for the member enterprise is presented. By combing price regulation and service reliability control, the model uses price-cap regulation and considers the service reliability and product eligibility rate for the quality control. The DEA approach is applied to establish the regulation model.
本文基于系统工程、多Agent系统(MAS)以及可靠性工程理论,从供应链一体化运作管理的角度出发,应用运筹学、智能算法和优化理论的相关方法,对供应链可靠性管理进行了深入地探讨,具体研究内容如下：
(1)供应链可靠性设计研究。基于本体和MAS,构建了一种集成多种智能算法的供应链可靠性设计模型。服务本体实现成员企业的服务发布与发现,工作流本体实现订单任务的动态分解。分别通过BP神经网络预测供应链目标可靠度,通过模糊逻辑评估各个投标企业可靠度,通过多目标遗传算法求得最佳中标企业,实现可靠供应链的最优设计。
(2)供应链可靠性预警研究。分析了供应链可靠性预警系统功能及运作流程等,在归纳和分析各类预警方法基础上,构造了基于不同视角的供应链可靠性分层预警体系架构。着重构建了基于MAS的供应链可靠性综合预警模型,由下往上依次对节点企业、子系统以及系统进行可靠性预警。节点Agent利用遗传投影寻踪法得到各节点可靠性预警等级,子系统Agent利用特征值赋权法得到各个环节与各条子链可靠性预警等级,系统Agent负责供应链整体可靠性预警。
(3)供应链可靠性改进研究。提出生产依赖度和生产相关度概念,通过网络分析法计算供应链运作可靠度。通过成员重要度分析找到需要进行冗余设计的供应链特定环节,如果存在多个投标企业,根据风险指标和风险指标变化率,通过模糊逻辑推理计算各类风险的发生概率,结合投标企业风险应对能力信息,选取最优冗余企业。并且融合反应式和慎思式的典型结构,设计了一类混合结构的改进Agent,以实现供应链可靠性改进。
(4)成员企业可靠性监管研究。构建了基于MAS的成员企业可靠性监管系统。为了激励成员企业提高运行效率,改善服务可靠性。提出了一套基于标尺竞争的结合价格和服务可靠性监管的成员企业激励性监管模式与方法。对价格监管采用价格上限管制方式,服务可靠性监管从供应可靠度和产品合格率两个方面进行控制。采用数据包络分析方法建立了相应的监管数学模型。
The competence is not among businesses but among supply chains in 21th century. To gain cost advantage and market share, many companies implement various initiatives such as source goods globally and leanagile supply chain management. These initiatives are effective in a stable environment, but they could make a supply chain more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. The failure which occurs at any node or link of supply network affects rapidly all companies in the web, and then, influences the normal operations of the whole network.
Based on application of operational research, intelligent algorithm and optimization theory, this dissertation researches supply chain reliability management, in light of systems engineering, reliability engineering, multi-agent system(MAS) and distribution chain integrative operation management. The concrete research is as follows:
(1)Study on reliability design of supply chain. A reliable supply chain network design model based on ontology and multi-agent technology is proposed, which integrated a variety of calculating methods. Service publication and discovery of the member enterprises are realized by the service ontology, the order task is dynamically decomposed by the workflow ontology. The prediction of supply chain target reliability is carried out with BP neural network, the bidding enterprise's reliability is evaluated by using fuzzy logic method, the multi-objective genetic algorithm is applied to solve this multi-objective optimization problem to obtain the successful tender, the reliable supply chain is designed optimally.
(2)Study on reliability early warning of supply chain. The function and operating process of supply chain reliability early warning system is analyzed. Based on the induction and analysis of various early warning methods, an infrastructure of supply chain reliability early warning system is built from two different views. A MAS-based reliability comprehensive early warning model in supply chain is put forward. The node enterprise agents employ the genetic projection pursuit method to predict the reliability of each enterprise. The subsystem agents get the weights of the enterprises' reliability by the eigenvalue weighted method, and then the reliability evaluation result of each subchain and each echelon are acquired by the weight. At the top layer, the system agent is responsible for predicting the whole reliability of supply chain.
(3)Study on reliability improvement of supply chain. The production dependencies and the degree of production dependence in supply chain are defined, and the algorithm of operation reliability of supply chain based on the network analytical method is put forward. The echelon needed for redundant design is found through analysis of the component importance. If there are several tender companies, fuzzy reasoning is used to obtain the risk probability from the risk index and its trend. The optimal company is chosen in combination with risk comprehensive response capacity of these companies. In order to realize reliability improvement of supply chain, a hybrid agent is designed which merged the reactive agent with the deliberative agent
(4)Study on reliability regulation of member enterprises. The model of member enterprises reliability regulation based on MAS is constructed. In order to inspirit the member enterprises to improve the operating efficiency and service reliability, an incentive regulation model and approach based on yardstick competition for the member enterprise is presented. By combing price regulation and service reliability control, the model uses price-cap regulation and considers the service reliability and product eligibility rate for the quality control. The DEA approach is applied to establish the regulation model.
引文
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