城市事故灾难道路交通应急组织理论与方法研究
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摘要
随着城市化进程的加快,社会经济的飞速发展,大量人口涌入城市,城市拥挤不堪,有限的城市资源和不断膨胀的人口之间的矛盾日益尖锐,城市问题不断涌现,越来越多以功能多样化、人口集中的大城市为载体的大型危机、复合型危机频频爆发,危及到人们的生命财产安全和未来城市的健康发展,研究应对各种危机的理论和方法已经成为当务之急。目前,世界各国采取的处置突发事件,降低人们生命财产损失的重要措施就是应急疏散。应急疏散涉及面广,协调难度大,包含的不确定因素多,在疏散过程中对交通组织指挥和管理水平的要求非常高。我国当前对应急疏散的研究还处于起步阶段,为了科学应对突发事件,国家“十五”科技攻关计划把应急交通疏散列为重点实施项目之一开展研究。本论文即是在这样的背景下,针对城市事故灾难的道路交通应急组织理论与方法进行研究而完成的。
本文研究主题为城市事故灾难道路交通应急组织理论与方法,重点在于对事故灾难特点及应急交通流特征进行深入分析的基础上,提出了具有针对性的道路交通应急组织方法,构建了智能交通应急组织体系,建立了反映应急交通流特征的交通控制和诱导理论模型。最后,对交通应急等级进行了模糊综合评判,并制定了相应等级的应急预案。
论文首先定义了本文研究的城市事故灾难的内涵,明确了论文研究的对象：城市事故灾难是指发生在城市,造成或将会造成重大人员伤亡、重大财产损失和重大社会影响的涉及社会公共安全的紧急事故事件,并且交通疏散对于事故应对起关键作用。主要包括城市交通事故、火灾、爆炸、危险化学品泄露和核与辐射事故；在此基础上,分析了城市事故灾难不确定性、短暂性和点源面影响性等特性以及应急交通流具有与常态交通流不同的显著特征：时空分布不均、峰值明显且流量巨大,非常规短时间出行、“单源多汇”网络流、交通方向不均衡系数极大和疏散车流始终处于跟车状况等特征,为后续提出有针对性的道路交通应急组织措施奠定基础。
在分析城市事故灾难应急交通流特性和各种城市道路交通组织方法适用性的基础上,提出了单向交通与专用车道结合、临时交通渠化、禁止转向交通以及信号控制等道路应急交通组织方法,并建立了紧急情况下的交通信号配时模型；在分析智能交通系统应用技术的基础上,提出了紧急情况下的智能交通组织体系框架,并建立了紧急情况下的交通疏散路径诱导模型。
在对城市事故灾难进行应急交通组织之前,需要将事故灾难的诸多影响因素综合考虑,给出一个明确的交通应急等级。这样就可以有针对性地迅速采取应急措施,使得事故灾难能够得到最科学的处理。然而,事故灾难的影响因素众多,并且大部分影响因素及其对事故的影响程度很难进行准确的量化,这正是模糊综合评判方法擅长解决的问题。因此,论文选取事故灾难交通应急处理的主要影响因素(如：影响人数,范围,以及路网和交通管理情况)作为评判指标,运用模糊综合评判模型来评判事故灾难的交通应急等级,并针对不同应急级别提出交通组织预案,为事故灾难的救援和疏散提供交通保障。
论文最后以武汉市汉正街商业区发生火灾为例,对研究成果进行了案例分析,验证本文提出的理论与方法的适应性和可操作性。
本文的研究,首次将城市事故灾难作为专门研究对象,挖掘各种事故的共有显著特征,提出了从事故灾难交通应急等级评判开始,到交通应急预案启动,再到各种交通应急组织措施采用的一整套系统化的理论方法体系,以期全面提高应对城市事故灾难的交通组织管理、决策水平,加强应急交通组织预案的实践性和可操作性,优化改善应急疏散预案的实施效果。
Along with rapid urbanization and economic development, a lot of people flood in city, the city has been very crowded, contradiction is very sharp between limited resources and intumescent population in city, city problems come forward constantly, large-scale and mixed crisis break out frequently in large city, therefore, we need study the way to deal with the situation positively. Emergency evacuation is the important measure to deal with unexpected events in the world. However, emergency evacuation involves huge area with big difficulties and uncertainties, At the same time, there needs a high level of traffic organization and management in the process of evacuation. It should be noted that China is still at the infant stage in terms of research for the emergency evacuation. In order to deal with emergent incidents scientifically, the central government includes transportation evacuation project in its national "tenth—five plan" and takes it as the key scientific research target. As a result this study is conducted based on this project as well as under the planning and workout of traffic organization theory and method of accident disaster in city.
This subject of paper is traffic organization theory and method of accident disaster in city. On the base of analyzing the characteristic of accident disaster and traffic flow, this paper submits aimed traffic emergency organization theory and method, structures intelligence traffic organization system, sets up traffic control and guidance model based of emergency traffic flow. At last, this paper judges traffic emergency grades by fuzzy mathematics, and drafts traffic emergency preplans in concert with traffic emergency grades.
At first, this paper defines connotation of accident disaster in city, and determine study object:accident disaster in city means that it happens in city, leads to serious casualties, property loss, society influence, refers to society safety's accident events, and traffic evacuation takes key role to deal with accident disaster. It mainly involves traffic accident, fire, explosion, dangerous chemicals leakage, nucleus radiation accident. Secondly the paper analyses uncertainty, momentary, point cause and surface influence of accident disaster in city, and the difference between emergency traffic flow and regular traffic flow:time and space inhomogeneous degree, obvious and large peak value, no regular short time trip, "single source many confluence" network flow, extreme traffic direction coefficient, follow traffic flow, these lay the foundations of aimed traffic organization measures.
On the base of analyzing traffic flow characters and application of all kinds of traffic organization methods in city, the paper brings forward traffic organization methods on emergency, involving union between one-way traffic and special lane, temporary traffic channeling, banning turn traffic and signal control, and sets up signal control model on emergency. The paper poses frame figure of intelligence traffic organization system and establish traffic evacuate route guidance model on emergency based on application technique of intelligence traffic system.
Before traffic emergency organization to accident disaster, it is needed to give a clear-cut traffic emergency grade based on considering numerous influence factors of accident disaster comprehensively. Like this, traffic emergency measures can be adopted rapidly to deal with accident disaster scientifically. However, influence factors of accident disaster are too many, and a majority of influence factors and influence degree are quantized difficultly, this problem is solved by fuzzy mathematics easily. Therefore, the paper selected the main influence factors of accident disaster as judgement indexes (such as:influence people number, scope, road network and traffic manage), applying fuzzy synthesis judgement models to judge traffic emergency grades, and working out traffic emergency preplans in concert with traffic emergency grades.
At last, the paper applied study achievement to fire of Hanzheng-street CBD in Wuhan as a case to validate adaptability and operation of theory and method submitted by this paper.
The paper treated accident disaster in city as special study objects for the first time, taped communal obvious features of all kinds of accident disasters. A entire systematic theory and method are put forward from judging traffic emergency grade, starting traffic emergency preplans, to carrying out traffic organization measures for improving traffic organization management and policy decision level of dealing with accident disaster in the round, strengthening practice and operation of traffic emergency preplans, optimizing operation effect of traffic emergency preplans.
本文研究主题为城市事故灾难道路交通应急组织理论与方法,重点在于对事故灾难特点及应急交通流特征进行深入分析的基础上,提出了具有针对性的道路交通应急组织方法,构建了智能交通应急组织体系,建立了反映应急交通流特征的交通控制和诱导理论模型。最后,对交通应急等级进行了模糊综合评判,并制定了相应等级的应急预案。
论文首先定义了本文研究的城市事故灾难的内涵,明确了论文研究的对象：城市事故灾难是指发生在城市,造成或将会造成重大人员伤亡、重大财产损失和重大社会影响的涉及社会公共安全的紧急事故事件,并且交通疏散对于事故应对起关键作用。主要包括城市交通事故、火灾、爆炸、危险化学品泄露和核与辐射事故；在此基础上,分析了城市事故灾难不确定性、短暂性和点源面影响性等特性以及应急交通流具有与常态交通流不同的显著特征：时空分布不均、峰值明显且流量巨大,非常规短时间出行、“单源多汇”网络流、交通方向不均衡系数极大和疏散车流始终处于跟车状况等特征,为后续提出有针对性的道路交通应急组织措施奠定基础。
在分析城市事故灾难应急交通流特性和各种城市道路交通组织方法适用性的基础上,提出了单向交通与专用车道结合、临时交通渠化、禁止转向交通以及信号控制等道路应急交通组织方法,并建立了紧急情况下的交通信号配时模型；在分析智能交通系统应用技术的基础上,提出了紧急情况下的智能交通组织体系框架,并建立了紧急情况下的交通疏散路径诱导模型。
在对城市事故灾难进行应急交通组织之前,需要将事故灾难的诸多影响因素综合考虑,给出一个明确的交通应急等级。这样就可以有针对性地迅速采取应急措施,使得事故灾难能够得到最科学的处理。然而,事故灾难的影响因素众多,并且大部分影响因素及其对事故的影响程度很难进行准确的量化,这正是模糊综合评判方法擅长解决的问题。因此,论文选取事故灾难交通应急处理的主要影响因素(如：影响人数,范围,以及路网和交通管理情况)作为评判指标,运用模糊综合评判模型来评判事故灾难的交通应急等级,并针对不同应急级别提出交通组织预案,为事故灾难的救援和疏散提供交通保障。
论文最后以武汉市汉正街商业区发生火灾为例,对研究成果进行了案例分析,验证本文提出的理论与方法的适应性和可操作性。
本文的研究,首次将城市事故灾难作为专门研究对象,挖掘各种事故的共有显著特征,提出了从事故灾难交通应急等级评判开始,到交通应急预案启动,再到各种交通应急组织措施采用的一整套系统化的理论方法体系,以期全面提高应对城市事故灾难的交通组织管理、决策水平,加强应急交通组织预案的实践性和可操作性,优化改善应急疏散预案的实施效果。
Along with rapid urbanization and economic development, a lot of people flood in city, the city has been very crowded, contradiction is very sharp between limited resources and intumescent population in city, city problems come forward constantly, large-scale and mixed crisis break out frequently in large city, therefore, we need study the way to deal with the situation positively. Emergency evacuation is the important measure to deal with unexpected events in the world. However, emergency evacuation involves huge area with big difficulties and uncertainties, At the same time, there needs a high level of traffic organization and management in the process of evacuation. It should be noted that China is still at the infant stage in terms of research for the emergency evacuation. In order to deal with emergent incidents scientifically, the central government includes transportation evacuation project in its national "tenth—five plan" and takes it as the key scientific research target. As a result this study is conducted based on this project as well as under the planning and workout of traffic organization theory and method of accident disaster in city.
This subject of paper is traffic organization theory and method of accident disaster in city. On the base of analyzing the characteristic of accident disaster and traffic flow, this paper submits aimed traffic emergency organization theory and method, structures intelligence traffic organization system, sets up traffic control and guidance model based of emergency traffic flow. At last, this paper judges traffic emergency grades by fuzzy mathematics, and drafts traffic emergency preplans in concert with traffic emergency grades.
At first, this paper defines connotation of accident disaster in city, and determine study object:accident disaster in city means that it happens in city, leads to serious casualties, property loss, society influence, refers to society safety's accident events, and traffic evacuation takes key role to deal with accident disaster. It mainly involves traffic accident, fire, explosion, dangerous chemicals leakage, nucleus radiation accident. Secondly the paper analyses uncertainty, momentary, point cause and surface influence of accident disaster in city, and the difference between emergency traffic flow and regular traffic flow:time and space inhomogeneous degree, obvious and large peak value, no regular short time trip, "single source many confluence" network flow, extreme traffic direction coefficient, follow traffic flow, these lay the foundations of aimed traffic organization measures.
On the base of analyzing traffic flow characters and application of all kinds of traffic organization methods in city, the paper brings forward traffic organization methods on emergency, involving union between one-way traffic and special lane, temporary traffic channeling, banning turn traffic and signal control, and sets up signal control model on emergency. The paper poses frame figure of intelligence traffic organization system and establish traffic evacuate route guidance model on emergency based on application technique of intelligence traffic system.
Before traffic emergency organization to accident disaster, it is needed to give a clear-cut traffic emergency grade based on considering numerous influence factors of accident disaster comprehensively. Like this, traffic emergency measures can be adopted rapidly to deal with accident disaster scientifically. However, influence factors of accident disaster are too many, and a majority of influence factors and influence degree are quantized difficultly, this problem is solved by fuzzy mathematics easily. Therefore, the paper selected the main influence factors of accident disaster as judgement indexes (such as:influence people number, scope, road network and traffic manage), applying fuzzy synthesis judgement models to judge traffic emergency grades, and working out traffic emergency preplans in concert with traffic emergency grades.
At last, the paper applied study achievement to fire of Hanzheng-street CBD in Wuhan as a case to validate adaptability and operation of theory and method submitted by this paper.
The paper treated accident disaster in city as special study objects for the first time, taped communal obvious features of all kinds of accident disasters. A entire systematic theory and method are put forward from judging traffic emergency grade, starting traffic emergency preplans, to carrying out traffic organization measures for improving traffic organization management and policy decision level of dealing with accident disaster in the round, strengthening practice and operation of traffic emergency preplans, optimizing operation effect of traffic emergency preplans.
引文
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