基于GIS的地质灾害风险评估方法研究
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摘要
地质灾害是包括自然因素或人为活动引发的危害人民生命和财产安全的山体滑坡、崩塌、泥石流、地裂缝等与地质作用有关的灾害。我国是世界上自然灾害最多、损失最严重的国家之一,灾害种类多,分布地域广,造成损失大。应对自然灾害是人类生存与可持续发展不可回避的问题之一,与风险共存,始终做到居安思危、防患于未然,是减灾和灾害管理的基本点和出发点。
本文研究的基于GIS技术的面向突发性自然灾害应急响应、利用多源数据的地质灾害风险快速评估方法研究,是面向我国政府部门对地质灾害风险管理提出的重大需求,服务于政府及地方社会解决突发性地质灾害损失应急评价中存在的主要技术问题,为各类突发性自然灾害的救灾、减灾等提供信息保障和决策支持。主要内容如下：
(1)阐述了地质灾害的定义及内涵,探讨了地质灾害风险评估的理论体系,在全面分析、总结国内外研究成果的基础上,分析了灾害评估研究的发展现状、趋势和不足；系统总结了基于GIS技术的地质灾害分析方法与风险评估的方法,主要包括危险性评估、易损性分析和风险评估的建模方法,建立了地质灾害风险评估的指标体系和评估流程,为地质灾害风险评估研究奠定了理论基础。
(2)基于C#语言和ArcGIS Engine开发平台构建了地质灾害风险快速评估系统,该系统主要是面向突发性自然灾害的、支持基于多源数据的地质灾害风险快速评估技术,主要实现以下功能：①实现了空间分析常用的基本功能,如slope、aspect.curvature等地形属性的提取,栅格计算器,失栅转换,以及mask裁剪等功能；②实现了空间分析、空间统计和可视化表达功能；③实现了坡度、坡向、曲率、相对高差以及地貌类型划分的自动功能；④实现了提取河网的密度,构造密度、灾害点密度以及划分的自动功能；⑤实现了基于信息量模型和专家知识建立的灾害风险评估方法：⑥实现图层的可视化输入功能,以及输出(如：*.bmp、*.tif和*.JEPG)的功能。
(3)以“4.14”玉树大地震为例,详细分析了震区环境地质条件,地震地质灾害空间分布特征,灾前灾后地质灾害变化监测,建立了震区地质灾害风险评价的指标体系,探讨了基于GIS技术的评估指标的提取和量化方法,完成了基于敏感系数、专家知识和GIS技术的地质灾害危险性评估、易损性分析、风险评估与制图的技术流程,并将灾区地质灾害风险划分为极高、高、中、低和无风险区五个等级,为灾后救灾减灾提供科学的决策支持,并提出了灾后恢复重建的建议和对策。
(4)对“4.14”玉树震区的地质灾害风险评估结果表明：①地震对震区的破坏有限,但仍然加剧了局部地区次生地质灾害的危害性,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等灾害大量发生于地震形成的破裂带两侧及周边,应采取充分避让、积极设防的措施来解决由此带来的不安全问题；②社会经济越发达的区域,由于人口、城镇密集,产业活动频繁,承载体的数量多、密度大、价值高,虽然其区域承载能力相对较强,相对损失率低,但绝对损失率和损失密度却较高,因此受灾害时的风险性也就最大。这一现象警示我们重新理解传统脆弱区和发展中的自然、社会、经济脆弱性,完善新形势下的灾害风险管理体制,以利于减少和应对新形势下的灾害风险。
Geological disasters, including landslides, collapses, debris flows and so on, are related to geological processes, which are induced by natural factors or artificial activities and are harmful to people's lives and property safety. China is one of the countries whose natural disasters occur largely and its loss is the most serious in the world, with many kinds of disasters, wide geographical distribution and great loss. It cannot be evaded to cope with natural disasters, which is one of the issues needed to be solved for human survival and sustainable development. Living with risks and always being prepared to take preventive measures are a basic point and starting point for disaster mitigation and disaster management.
In this paper, to the unexpected natural disaster emergency response, study on the rapid disaster risk assessment method with multi-source data based on GIS, is the major requirements of geological disaster risk management suggested by China's government departments, which would serve to government and local community to solve the major technical problems existing in the loss of geological disasters emergency evaluation, and provide information-assurance and decision-making support for all kinds of unexpected natural disaster response, mitigation, etc. The following major elements:
(1) The definition and connotation of geological disasters were described. The theoretical system of geological disaster risk assessment was discussed. Based on the analysis and summarizations of researches home and aboard, the dissertation tries to analyze the development status,trends and shortages of geological disaster risk assessment research.Systematic summary of the geological disaster analysis and risk assessment methods based on GIS were executed, including the model technology of hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk assessment. Geological disaster risk assessment index system and evaluation flow were built.It laid the theoretical foundation for the geological disaster risk assessment studies.
(2) Geological disaster risk rapid assessment system was built based on C# program and development platform of ArcGIS Engine.The system was mainly served for government departments to facing the unexpected natural disaster emergency response,and with the technology of using multi-source data to assessed risk of geological disaster.The major functions of this system are:①Realize the common basic function of spatial analysis, extraction of terrain property, such as slope, aspect, curvature, raster calculator, vector and raster conversion, and clip with mask, and so on.②Realize the function of spatial analysis, spatial statistic and Visual Expression.③Automatically partition slope factor, slope direction factor, curvature factor, relative relief and geomorphologic information.④Realize the function of extracting drainage density, fracture density, disaster points density and automatically partition.⑤Function of geological disaster risk assessment based on information value methodology and expert knowledge.⑥Function of automatically input and visually output mapping, such as*.bmp,*.tif,*.jepg, and so on.
(3) A case study in "4.14" Yushu earthquake, this dissertation is detailed analysis of environmental geological conditions, spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced secondary geological disasters, pre-disaster and post-disaster monitoring of geological disasters. Earthquake-induced secondary geological disaster risk assessment index system was built and extraction and quantitative methods of evaluating indexes based on GIS technology were discussed. Technological flow of earthquake-induced secondary geological disaster hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis and risk assessment and mapping based on sensitivity coefficient, expert knowledge and GIS technology were finished. Risk assessment map was categorized into five classes, that is, "very low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high" Some suggestions and strategies were given and would provide decision-making support for emergency relief and post-earthquake reconstruction in the area.
(4) The result of risk assessment of geological disaster induced by Yushu earthquake indicated:①Earthquake intensified hazards of the secondary geological disasters in local areas, although its damage is limited. Landslides, collapses, debris flows disasters mostly occurred on both sides of earthquake rupture zone and its surrounding. Fully avoiding and safety measures should be taken to resolve the insecurity problem.②In socio-economic developed areas,the risk of disasters will be the greatest. This is because the population and the cities are crowded, the industry activity is frequent, and there are many hazard bearing bodies with high density and value.Although their bearing capacity of regional disaster is relatively strong and the loss is relatively low, the absolute loss and its density is actually high. It warns us to understand vulnerable regions of the traditional and the vulnerability of developing nature,society and economy. It is necessary to improve disaster risk management system under the new situation so that disaster risk could be reduced.
本文研究的基于GIS技术的面向突发性自然灾害应急响应、利用多源数据的地质灾害风险快速评估方法研究,是面向我国政府部门对地质灾害风险管理提出的重大需求,服务于政府及地方社会解决突发性地质灾害损失应急评价中存在的主要技术问题,为各类突发性自然灾害的救灾、减灾等提供信息保障和决策支持。主要内容如下：
(1)阐述了地质灾害的定义及内涵,探讨了地质灾害风险评估的理论体系,在全面分析、总结国内外研究成果的基础上,分析了灾害评估研究的发展现状、趋势和不足；系统总结了基于GIS技术的地质灾害分析方法与风险评估的方法,主要包括危险性评估、易损性分析和风险评估的建模方法,建立了地质灾害风险评估的指标体系和评估流程,为地质灾害风险评估研究奠定了理论基础。
(2)基于C#语言和ArcGIS Engine开发平台构建了地质灾害风险快速评估系统,该系统主要是面向突发性自然灾害的、支持基于多源数据的地质灾害风险快速评估技术,主要实现以下功能：①实现了空间分析常用的基本功能,如slope、aspect.curvature等地形属性的提取,栅格计算器,失栅转换,以及mask裁剪等功能；②实现了空间分析、空间统计和可视化表达功能；③实现了坡度、坡向、曲率、相对高差以及地貌类型划分的自动功能；④实现了提取河网的密度,构造密度、灾害点密度以及划分的自动功能；⑤实现了基于信息量模型和专家知识建立的灾害风险评估方法：⑥实现图层的可视化输入功能,以及输出(如：*.bmp、*.tif和*.JEPG)的功能。
(3)以“4.14”玉树大地震为例,详细分析了震区环境地质条件,地震地质灾害空间分布特征,灾前灾后地质灾害变化监测,建立了震区地质灾害风险评价的指标体系,探讨了基于GIS技术的评估指标的提取和量化方法,完成了基于敏感系数、专家知识和GIS技术的地质灾害危险性评估、易损性分析、风险评估与制图的技术流程,并将灾区地质灾害风险划分为极高、高、中、低和无风险区五个等级,为灾后救灾减灾提供科学的决策支持,并提出了灾后恢复重建的建议和对策。
(4)对“4.14”玉树震区的地质灾害风险评估结果表明：①地震对震区的破坏有限,但仍然加剧了局部地区次生地质灾害的危害性,滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等灾害大量发生于地震形成的破裂带两侧及周边,应采取充分避让、积极设防的措施来解决由此带来的不安全问题；②社会经济越发达的区域,由于人口、城镇密集,产业活动频繁,承载体的数量多、密度大、价值高,虽然其区域承载能力相对较强,相对损失率低,但绝对损失率和损失密度却较高,因此受灾害时的风险性也就最大。这一现象警示我们重新理解传统脆弱区和发展中的自然、社会、经济脆弱性,完善新形势下的灾害风险管理体制,以利于减少和应对新形势下的灾害风险。
Geological disasters, including landslides, collapses, debris flows and so on, are related to geological processes, which are induced by natural factors or artificial activities and are harmful to people's lives and property safety. China is one of the countries whose natural disasters occur largely and its loss is the most serious in the world, with many kinds of disasters, wide geographical distribution and great loss. It cannot be evaded to cope with natural disasters, which is one of the issues needed to be solved for human survival and sustainable development. Living with risks and always being prepared to take preventive measures are a basic point and starting point for disaster mitigation and disaster management.
In this paper, to the unexpected natural disaster emergency response, study on the rapid disaster risk assessment method with multi-source data based on GIS, is the major requirements of geological disaster risk management suggested by China's government departments, which would serve to government and local community to solve the major technical problems existing in the loss of geological disasters emergency evaluation, and provide information-assurance and decision-making support for all kinds of unexpected natural disaster response, mitigation, etc. The following major elements:
(1) The definition and connotation of geological disasters were described. The theoretical system of geological disaster risk assessment was discussed. Based on the analysis and summarizations of researches home and aboard, the dissertation tries to analyze the development status,trends and shortages of geological disaster risk assessment research.Systematic summary of the geological disaster analysis and risk assessment methods based on GIS were executed, including the model technology of hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk assessment. Geological disaster risk assessment index system and evaluation flow were built.It laid the theoretical foundation for the geological disaster risk assessment studies.
(2) Geological disaster risk rapid assessment system was built based on C# program and development platform of ArcGIS Engine.The system was mainly served for government departments to facing the unexpected natural disaster emergency response,and with the technology of using multi-source data to assessed risk of geological disaster.The major functions of this system are:①Realize the common basic function of spatial analysis, extraction of terrain property, such as slope, aspect, curvature, raster calculator, vector and raster conversion, and clip with mask, and so on.②Realize the function of spatial analysis, spatial statistic and Visual Expression.③Automatically partition slope factor, slope direction factor, curvature factor, relative relief and geomorphologic information.④Realize the function of extracting drainage density, fracture density, disaster points density and automatically partition.⑤Function of geological disaster risk assessment based on information value methodology and expert knowledge.⑥Function of automatically input and visually output mapping, such as*.bmp,*.tif,*.jepg, and so on.
(3) A case study in "4.14" Yushu earthquake, this dissertation is detailed analysis of environmental geological conditions, spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced secondary geological disasters, pre-disaster and post-disaster monitoring of geological disasters. Earthquake-induced secondary geological disaster risk assessment index system was built and extraction and quantitative methods of evaluating indexes based on GIS technology were discussed. Technological flow of earthquake-induced secondary geological disaster hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis and risk assessment and mapping based on sensitivity coefficient, expert knowledge and GIS technology were finished. Risk assessment map was categorized into five classes, that is, "very low", "low", "moderate", "high" and "very high" Some suggestions and strategies were given and would provide decision-making support for emergency relief and post-earthquake reconstruction in the area.
(4) The result of risk assessment of geological disaster induced by Yushu earthquake indicated:①Earthquake intensified hazards of the secondary geological disasters in local areas, although its damage is limited. Landslides, collapses, debris flows disasters mostly occurred on both sides of earthquake rupture zone and its surrounding. Fully avoiding and safety measures should be taken to resolve the insecurity problem.②In socio-economic developed areas,the risk of disasters will be the greatest. This is because the population and the cities are crowded, the industry activity is frequent, and there are many hazard bearing bodies with high density and value.Although their bearing capacity of regional disaster is relatively strong and the loss is relatively low, the absolute loss and its density is actually high. It warns us to understand vulnerable regions of the traditional and the vulnerability of developing nature,society and economy. It is necessary to improve disaster risk management system under the new situation so that disaster risk could be reduced.
引文
②《辞海(1999版)》,上海辞书出版社,2000年。
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