道路工程项目风险管理模式研究
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摘要
本文系统地研究了道路工程项目风险管理模式，在把道路工程项目中存在的各种风险看成一个多层次系统的基础上，首先从道路工程项目风险的来源、风险管理的组织形式、风险管理过程等方面对该模式进行了研究，并且建立了风险管理模式框图。根据该模式框图所示路线，本文对道路工程项目风险管理整体规划进行了研究，并提出了用综合集成法指导制订道路工程项目风险管理整体规划的思想。在道路工程项目整体规划的指导下，我们对道路工程项目中存在的风险进行了识别，并从不同的角度进行了分类。如果对项目中的所有风险都予以同样地重视，无疑将加重项目的负担，如何有区别地管理这些风险呢?本文首先对道路工程项目中存在的风险进行风险发生概率和影响的估计。在风险估计的基础上，我们对道路工程项目风险进行评价，其中包括风险等级的确定、风险的排序、风险的因果关系分析等几个方面内容。在考虑建设方风险承受能力的条件下，本文提出了三种确定风险等级的方法。利用层次分析法对项目风险进行排序，在这一部分中，本文提出了一种新的风险排序表达方式-风险直方图，并设计了风险评价系统。在风险的因果关系分析中，我们对风险之间的几种关系进行了分析，以便改善项目风险管理，降低风险管理成本。通过项目风险评价，我们能够很清楚地了解哪些风险要重点监控，哪些风险可实行一般的管理，就可以达到有区别地管理风险的目的。根据风险评价结果，我们要制订需要重点监控的风险的应对措施，它包括四种方法：风险规避、风险减轻、风险转移、风险接受，本文对影响道路工程项目的典型风险的应对措施进行了分析。风险监控是监督计划的执行情况以及人员执行计划的情况，在这一部分，本文提出了用风险直方图跟踪项目风险的设想，并将挣值管理方法运用到道路工程项目风险管理中，以便监督和控制道路工程项目进度和的成本支出情况。最后，结合临长高速公路项目实践，利用该模式对项目中存在的风险进行了尝试性的管理。
通过对道路工程项目风险管理模式研究，为道路工程项目的风险管理提供了一种方法、思路。总之，该模式要随着道路工程项目实践的不断发展而不断完善，只有这样，它才有可能真正成为确保项目成功的有力工具。
the paper systematically did reseach into highway project risk management model, on the basis of regarding a variety of risk in highway project as a kind of multi-level system,we firstly investigated the model in such aspects as risk origin, organization form of risk management, risk management processes, at the same time, we builded up a Frame-diagram of highway project risk management, according to the line shown in the Frame-diagram, the paper made a study of risk management integral layout for highway project, and proposed a idea to make use of comprehensive method to make risk management integral layout, under the guidance of risk management integral layout for highway project, we identified and classified a variery of risk existing in highway project, if we treated all risks in highway project as the same, no doubt ,the idea will increase burden of highway project,how to manage these risks differently ? at first,we made a estimation of possibile probability and influence risks occurring, based on which
we evaluated these risks existing in highway project,including ascertaining risk grade , sequencing risks , analysing risks consequence and so forth, considering owner risk-endurence , the paper proposed three kind of method to ascertain risk-grade, we made use of Level-analysis method to sort risks in highway project, in the section, the paper proposed a kind of new expression-Risk Actangular Diagram(RAD) for risk sequence,and designed Risk Evaluation System(RES). in the risk consequence analysis, we made a study of several kind of relationship among risks to improve on highway project risk management and to reduce cost of risk management, through the evaluation of highway project risks, we can well understand which need to monitor and to control,which need to manage generally, by which the goal to manage risks differently is attained, from risk evaluation result, we need to make proper measures,which consist of Avoidance, Mitigation, Transference, Acceptance, to respond highway project risks, especially s
erious risks in highway project, the paper made a analysis of response measures to usual risks, risk monitoring and controlling means supervising plan performing case and staff performing plan case, in the section, the paper proposed a way to use RAD to track risks, and apply earned-value method into risk management for highway project to controll schedule and cost of highway project, at last, connected with practice of lin-chang highway project, we made use of the model to manage risks in
highway project tentatively.
Through the reseach into highway project risk managenent model to provide a kind of method, clue for risk management of highway project, in short, the model, which need to make perfect endlessly in the highway project practice,will become really effective tool to manage risks in the highway project.
通过对道路工程项目风险管理模式研究，为道路工程项目的风险管理提供了一种方法、思路。总之，该模式要随着道路工程项目实践的不断发展而不断完善，只有这样，它才有可能真正成为确保项目成功的有力工具。
the paper systematically did reseach into highway project risk management model, on the basis of regarding a variety of risk in highway project as a kind of multi-level system,we firstly investigated the model in such aspects as risk origin, organization form of risk management, risk management processes, at the same time, we builded up a Frame-diagram of highway project risk management, according to the line shown in the Frame-diagram, the paper made a study of risk management integral layout for highway project, and proposed a idea to make use of comprehensive method to make risk management integral layout, under the guidance of risk management integral layout for highway project, we identified and classified a variery of risk existing in highway project, if we treated all risks in highway project as the same, no doubt ,the idea will increase burden of highway project,how to manage these risks differently ? at first,we made a estimation of possibile probability and influence risks occurring, based on which
we evaluated these risks existing in highway project,including ascertaining risk grade , sequencing risks , analysing risks consequence and so forth, considering owner risk-endurence , the paper proposed three kind of method to ascertain risk-grade, we made use of Level-analysis method to sort risks in highway project, in the section, the paper proposed a kind of new expression-Risk Actangular Diagram(RAD) for risk sequence,and designed Risk Evaluation System(RES). in the risk consequence analysis, we made a study of several kind of relationship among risks to improve on highway project risk management and to reduce cost of risk management, through the evaluation of highway project risks, we can well understand which need to monitor and to control,which need to manage generally, by which the goal to manage risks differently is attained, from risk evaluation result, we need to make proper measures,which consist of Avoidance, Mitigation, Transference, Acceptance, to respond highway project risks, especially s
erious risks in highway project, the paper made a analysis of response measures to usual risks, risk monitoring and controlling means supervising plan performing case and staff performing plan case, in the section, the paper proposed a way to use RAD to track risks, and apply earned-value method into risk management for highway project to controll schedule and cost of highway project, at last, connected with practice of lin-chang highway project, we made use of the model to manage risks in
highway project tentatively.
Through the reseach into highway project risk managenent model to provide a kind of method, clue for risk management of highway project, in short, the model, which need to make perfect endlessly in the highway project practice,will become really effective tool to manage risks in the highway project.
引文
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