小麦白粉病气象环境成因及长期预测研究
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摘要
本研究采用气象上易于获取和应用的环流特征量和地面资料，研究全国及长江流域小麦白粉病发生流行与大气环流、气象条件的关系，及其可能影响机制，筛选出影响全国、长江流域小麦白粉病发生流行的环流背景指标和地面指标，建立了其长期气象预测模式，并进行了3年的延伸预报，预测值与实况吻合，表明建立在气候背景指示基础上的预测模式，具有较好的外延预报效果。
揭示了小麦白粉病发生流行的环流背景；小麦白粉病发生流行与74项大气环流特征量的相关研究表明：(1)全国小麦白粉病发生重病年的上年1月至当年3月的北半球极涡面积指数月平均值较同期多年月平均值偏少33；上年7月至当年1月欧亚经向环流指数月平均值偏小7；上年8月印缅槽指数偏大9；上年5月至当年3月西太平洋副热带高压面积指数月平均值偏大5。北半球极涡面积和欧亚经向环流对我国小麦白粉病流行影响为负效应，印缅槽和西太平洋副热带高压面积对我国小麦白粉病流行影响为正效应；(2)长江流域小麦白粉病发生的重病年的上年8月的亚洲区极涡面积指数较同期多年月平均值偏小25以上；上年5～7月西藏高原指数月平均值偏多5以上；上年11月至当年1月北半球极涡中心位置离我国地理位置明显偏远；上年12月份的太阳黑子指数偏多800以上；上年5～7月的北美大西洋副高强度指数月平均值偏多32以上；上年6～12月南海副高脊线位置偏北1-2个纬度；上年5月编号台风数在3个以上。长江流域小麦白粉病发生轻病年的上年7～8月亚洲经向环流指数月平均值较同期多年月平均值偏小3以上。
筛选了气象条件影响长江流域小麦白粉病发生流行的关键时段、关键因子及其指标，结果表明：(1)气象条件影响小麦白粉病发生流行的关键时段是春季的4月份和冬季的12月下旬至次年2月下旬；其中春季的影响大于冬季。(2)随着冬季关键时段的降雨量、春季关键时段的中雨量的增加及平均温度的降低，发病程度显著增加。(3)确定了不同发病等级下的相应指标，经与逐年发病实况检验，两者具有很好的吻合性。(4)在冬小麦整个生长季中，病害程度随着平均风速的加大而加重。旬极端温度、地表温度与病害呈负相关。
探讨了小麦白粉病发生与流行的气候背景影响的可能机制。太阳黑子指数的增加可能促使长江流域1月下旬的雨量加大。上年11月至12月北半球极涡中心位置越靠近我国，长江流域当年1月中、下旬的降雨量则较多年平均值偏少，1月下旬的温度较多年平均值偏高。上年7-8月的平均亚洲经向环流强时，4月的雨量偏多。大气环流大多是通过影响小气候环境来促进或抑制小麦白粉病的发生及流行。
Using the atmospheric general circulation characteristic indexes and surface data obtained easily to study the relationship between epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew and atmosphere general circulation and meteorological condition, to study the possible influencing mechanism, select circulation indexes and surface indexes affecting the epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew in China and in the Changjiang valley, then establish long-term forecasting models with which the three-year-extending forecast is made, and the result tallies with the real, which indicates that the forecasting models have better extension effect.
The circumfluence background affecting the epidemic of wheat power mildew is posted; the correlation study between the epidemic and 74 circulation characteristic indexes indicate: (1) In china, in the year of heavy occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of area index of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex from last Jan. to this Mar. is 33 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period; the monthly average of Eurasian meridional circulation index from last Jul. to this Jan. is 7 less; the Indiaburman trough index in last Aug. is 9 more; the monthly average of area index of West Pacific Subtropical high from last May. to this Mar. is 5 more. The impact of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area and Eurasian meridional circulation on the epidemic of wheat power mildew is negative, while the impact of Indiaburman trough and West Pacific Subtropical high area is positive. (2) In Changjiang valley, in the year of heavy occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of Asia polar vortex area index in last Aug. is over 25 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period; the monthly average of Tibet altiplano index from last Mar. to last Jul. is over 5 higher; the center location of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in last Nov. to this Jan. is far too from China; the sunspot index in last Dec. is 800 higher; the monthly average of intensity index of North America Atlantic Subtropical high from last May. to last Jul. is about 32 higher; the position of South China Sea Subtropical high ridge line is partial to north about 1 -2 1at.; the numbered typhoons in last May. are more than 3. In the year of light occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of Eurasian meridional circulation index from last Jul. to last Aug. is 3 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period.
The key periods > key factors and indexes of the meteorological condition affecting the epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew in Changjiang valley are selected, the results indicate: (1) The key period is Apr. and from the last dekad of Dec. to the last dekad of Feb.; in which the impact of spring is important than winter. (2) With the increase of rainfalls during the winter key period and the middle rainfalls during the spring key period, and the decrease of average temperature in winter during the spring key period, the occurrence degree will enhance obviously. (3) The corresponding indexes under different occurrence degrees which tally with the real after being tested. (4) During the whole growth period, the epidemic degrees increase with the enhance of average wind speed. The maximum temperature and ground surface temperature have negative correlation with disease.
The possible mechanism of climatic background affecting wheat Powdery mildew is studied.
The increase of sunspot may make the rainfall enhance in Jan. in Changjiang valley. The nearer the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex is away from China in last Nov. to last Dec., the less the rainfall in the middle and last dekad in this Jan., and the higher the temperature in last dekad in this Jan. When the average meridional circulation in last Jul. to last Aug is stronger, the rainfall in this Apr. is more. The atmospheric general circulation boosts or restrains the occurrence and development of wheat Powdery mildew by affecting microclimate environment.
揭示了小麦白粉病发生流行的环流背景；小麦白粉病发生流行与74项大气环流特征量的相关研究表明：(1)全国小麦白粉病发生重病年的上年1月至当年3月的北半球极涡面积指数月平均值较同期多年月平均值偏少33；上年7月至当年1月欧亚经向环流指数月平均值偏小7；上年8月印缅槽指数偏大9；上年5月至当年3月西太平洋副热带高压面积指数月平均值偏大5。北半球极涡面积和欧亚经向环流对我国小麦白粉病流行影响为负效应，印缅槽和西太平洋副热带高压面积对我国小麦白粉病流行影响为正效应；(2)长江流域小麦白粉病发生的重病年的上年8月的亚洲区极涡面积指数较同期多年月平均值偏小25以上；上年5～7月西藏高原指数月平均值偏多5以上；上年11月至当年1月北半球极涡中心位置离我国地理位置明显偏远；上年12月份的太阳黑子指数偏多800以上；上年5～7月的北美大西洋副高强度指数月平均值偏多32以上；上年6～12月南海副高脊线位置偏北1-2个纬度；上年5月编号台风数在3个以上。长江流域小麦白粉病发生轻病年的上年7～8月亚洲经向环流指数月平均值较同期多年月平均值偏小3以上。
筛选了气象条件影响长江流域小麦白粉病发生流行的关键时段、关键因子及其指标，结果表明：(1)气象条件影响小麦白粉病发生流行的关键时段是春季的4月份和冬季的12月下旬至次年2月下旬；其中春季的影响大于冬季。(2)随着冬季关键时段的降雨量、春季关键时段的中雨量的增加及平均温度的降低，发病程度显著增加。(3)确定了不同发病等级下的相应指标，经与逐年发病实况检验，两者具有很好的吻合性。(4)在冬小麦整个生长季中，病害程度随着平均风速的加大而加重。旬极端温度、地表温度与病害呈负相关。
探讨了小麦白粉病发生与流行的气候背景影响的可能机制。太阳黑子指数的增加可能促使长江流域1月下旬的雨量加大。上年11月至12月北半球极涡中心位置越靠近我国，长江流域当年1月中、下旬的降雨量则较多年平均值偏少，1月下旬的温度较多年平均值偏高。上年7-8月的平均亚洲经向环流强时，4月的雨量偏多。大气环流大多是通过影响小气候环境来促进或抑制小麦白粉病的发生及流行。
Using the atmospheric general circulation characteristic indexes and surface data obtained easily to study the relationship between epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew and atmosphere general circulation and meteorological condition, to study the possible influencing mechanism, select circulation indexes and surface indexes affecting the epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew in China and in the Changjiang valley, then establish long-term forecasting models with which the three-year-extending forecast is made, and the result tallies with the real, which indicates that the forecasting models have better extension effect.
The circumfluence background affecting the epidemic of wheat power mildew is posted; the correlation study between the epidemic and 74 circulation characteristic indexes indicate: (1) In china, in the year of heavy occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of area index of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex from last Jan. to this Mar. is 33 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period; the monthly average of Eurasian meridional circulation index from last Jul. to this Jan. is 7 less; the Indiaburman trough index in last Aug. is 9 more; the monthly average of area index of West Pacific Subtropical high from last May. to this Mar. is 5 more. The impact of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area and Eurasian meridional circulation on the epidemic of wheat power mildew is negative, while the impact of Indiaburman trough and West Pacific Subtropical high area is positive. (2) In Changjiang valley, in the year of heavy occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of Asia polar vortex area index in last Aug. is over 25 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period; the monthly average of Tibet altiplano index from last Mar. to last Jul. is over 5 higher; the center location of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex in last Nov. to this Jan. is far too from China; the sunspot index in last Dec. is 800 higher; the monthly average of intensity index of North America Atlantic Subtropical high from last May. to last Jul. is about 32 higher; the position of South China Sea Subtropical high ridge line is partial to north about 1 -2 1at.; the numbered typhoons in last May. are more than 3. In the year of light occurrence of wheat power mildew, the monthly average of Eurasian meridional circulation index from last Jul. to last Aug. is 3 less than the monthly average of many years during the same period.
The key periods > key factors and indexes of the meteorological condition affecting the epidemic of wheat Powdery mildew in Changjiang valley are selected, the results indicate: (1) The key period is Apr. and from the last dekad of Dec. to the last dekad of Feb.; in which the impact of spring is important than winter. (2) With the increase of rainfalls during the winter key period and the middle rainfalls during the spring key period, and the decrease of average temperature in winter during the spring key period, the occurrence degree will enhance obviously. (3) The corresponding indexes under different occurrence degrees which tally with the real after being tested. (4) During the whole growth period, the epidemic degrees increase with the enhance of average wind speed. The maximum temperature and ground surface temperature have negative correlation with disease.
The possible mechanism of climatic background affecting wheat Powdery mildew is studied.
The increase of sunspot may make the rainfall enhance in Jan. in Changjiang valley. The nearer the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex is away from China in last Nov. to last Dec., the less the rainfall in the middle and last dekad in this Jan., and the higher the temperature in last dekad in this Jan. When the average meridional circulation in last Jul. to last Aug is stronger, the rainfall in this Apr. is more. The atmospheric general circulation boosts or restrains the occurrence and development of wheat Powdery mildew by affecting microclimate environment.
引文
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